Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations resonated, causing gold prices to reach new highs last week. On March 21, the Shanghai Gold main futures price rose 1.73% to 706.96 yuan/gram, the COMEX gold main futures price rose 1.16% to 3028.20 US dollars/ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 1.92% to 706.08 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 1.31% to 3022.79 US dollars/ounce. The weakening of the US dollar index and US stocks, the dovish signal from the Fed's March FOMC meeting, and geopolitical uncertainties all supported the gold price. However, the rebound of the US dollar on Friday and some long - position profit - taking led to a decline in the gold price. Overall, the gold price rose significantly last week [1]. - This week (the week of March 24), the gold price may face short - term correction pressure. The better - than - expected US existing home sales data, the rebound of the US dollar index, the possible rebound of the US stocks, and the easing of concerns about tariff risks may restrict the inflow of funds into the gold market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 21, the Shanghai Gold main futures price closed at 706.96 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan/gram from March 14; the COMEX gold main futures price closed at 3028.20 US dollars/ounce, up 34.60 US dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price closed at 706.08 yuan/gram, up 13.28 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3022.79 US dollars/ounce, up 39.00 US dollars/ounce [3]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai Gold main futures was 1.83%, with a trading volume of 83.38 million and an open interest of 20.73 million; the COMEX gold main futures had a cumulative increase of 0.90%, a trading volume of 77.73 million, and an open interest of 24.28 million. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 1.85%, a trading volume of 21.35 million, and an open interest of 18.53 million; the London gold spot had a cumulative increase of 1.31% [4]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 21, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 11.80 US dollars/ounce, slightly up 0.15 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis turned positive to 0.94 yuan/gram, up 1.44 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [6]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 21, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.68 yuan/gram, continuing to rise from - 0.20 yuan/gram of the previous Friday. The rebound of the US dollar on Friday suppressed the foreign - market gold price, resulting in a smaller increase in the foreign - market price than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio remained the same as the previous week, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [9]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly last week. As of March 21, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 930.51 tons, an increase of 24.10 tons from the previous Friday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D increased significantly, with a total trading volume of 213,494 kilograms, up 14.43% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of March 18, the long - position holdings of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased significantly, while the short - position holdings remained basically the same, leading to a continuous increase in the net long - position. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to increase, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 600 kilograms to 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly week - on - week; the number of JOLTS job openings in January continued to decline; the CPI and PPI year - on - year in January dropped significantly; the ISM services PMI in February rebounded while the manufacturing PMI declined; the unemployment rate in February rebounded; the number of new non - farm payrolls in February increased slightly; the Michigan consumer confidence index in March continued to decline significantly; the durable goods orders in January increased significantly month - on - month; the core PCE year - on - year in January declined [21][23][26][27]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On March 20, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The Fed will slow down the balance - sheet reduction from April, reducing the monthly redemption cap of US Treasury bonds from 25 billion US dollars to 5 billion US dollars. The updated dot - plot shows that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2025, but the number of people who expect no rate cut this year increased from one to four, and the number of people who expect two rate cuts decreased by one to nine. The Fed also lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, raised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, and raised the core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% [31]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index first declined and then rose last week, with a slight overall increase. The Fed's statement about the increased uncertainty of the US economic outlook led to a decline in the US dollar index at the beginning of the week. However, concerns about tariff issues and the correction of the German and Hong Kong stock markets pushed up the US dollar index in the second half of the week. As of March 21, the US dollar index rebounded 0.40% to 104.15 compared with the previous Friday [33]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the 10 - year US TIPS declined significantly last week. The Fed's decision to keep the policy rate unchanged and the signal of increased economic uncertainty boosted market expectations of interest rate cuts, and concerns about the US economic downturn led to a significant decline in the 10 - year US TIPS yield. As of March 21, the yield of the 10 - year US TIPS declined 9bp to 1.92% [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased. On March 18, the Israeli military launched a large - scale air strike on Gaza, and on March 22, Israel also carried out an air strike on southern Lebanon, intensifying the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the Russia - Ukraine situation, the US and Russia will hold talks on Monday, and the Trump administration hopes to reach a cease - fire agreement before April 20 [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, indicating that the Federal Reserve will likely continue to observe economic conditions before making any rate changes [3][6]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's policies [3][6]. - Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. have been downgraded, with the 2025 growth rate revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% [3][6]. - The report highlights that inflation expectations have risen, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%, indicating potential upward pressure on prices due to tariffs and other policies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report notes that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a steady pace, but recent data suggests a weakening trend, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a nearly 10% decline [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks has intensified, leading to a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for only one rate cut this year [3][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that while short-term inflation risks may rise, the Federal Reserve views these as temporary shocks [3][6]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a shift in expectations, with an increase in the number of members anticipating no rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns over inflation [3][6]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement 2-3 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on economic data and inflation trends [3][6]. - It emphasizes that the current high-interest rate environment, coupled with contractionary policies, may increase economic downward pressure, necessitating a reassessment of monetary policy [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) with no immediate changes expected in the short term [4][5]. Core Insights - The March LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the one-year rate and 3.60% for the five-year rate, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [4][5]. - The report suggests that the second quarter may present a window for potential interest rate cuts, influenced by the current economic conditions and government policies [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of directing credit towards key sectors of the economy, indicating that structural monetary policy tools may see rate adjustments without replacing overall policy rate cuts [6][8]. Summary by Sections LPR Pricing - The LPR pricing for March remained stable, reflecting the unchanged policy rates and the impact of various economic factors, including a decline in commercial banks' net interest margins [5][6]. - The report highlights that the necessity for rate cuts is not urgent due to strong economic growth momentum and increasing consumption and investment rates [5][6]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that the LPR may be adjusted downwards in the second quarter, particularly for the five-year rate, to support the real estate market [6][8]. - It is noted that the LPR may be adjusted independently of the policy rate, with potential for a greater reduction in LPR compared to the policy rate cuts [6][8]. Economic Context - The report discusses the influence of external economic conditions and domestic price trends on monetary policy decisions, suggesting that the central bank will maintain a moderately accommodative stance [6][8]. - The government work report indicates plans for structural monetary policy adjustments to support key economic areas, including agriculture and technology [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, indicating a pause in interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns and economic uncertainties [2][6][10]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with market expectations, while expressing increased concern over economic uncertainties [2][3]. - Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. have been significantly downgraded, with the 2025 growth rate revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% [2][8]. - The report highlights the impact of Trump's economic policies, particularly tariffs and spending cuts, which have contributed to a decline in consumer confidence and market expectations for U.S. growth [6][11]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, assessing the impact of tariff policies on inflation before making further decisions on interest rates [9][10]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a reduction in the number of members expecting rate cuts this year, reflecting a cautious stance on inflation risks [7][8]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data shows a weakening trend, with the Atlanta GDP Now model predicting a 1.8% annualized decline in Q1 GDP, driven by low consumer spending growth of 0.4% [11][12]. - The report notes that inflation risks remain elevated, particularly due to the implementation of tariffs, which may lead to upward pressure on prices in the short term [7][12]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement 2-3 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on the evolving economic landscape and inflation trends [11][12]. - There is a possibility that inflation risks could limit the Fed's ability to cut rates as anticipated, especially if tariff impacts exceed current projections [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable LPR (Loan Prime Rate) with no changes in March, suggesting a cautious approach towards interest rate adjustments in the near term [1][2]. Core Insights - The LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the one-year term and 3.60% for the five-year term, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [1][2]. - The report highlights a potential opening for interest rate cuts in the second quarter, driven by various economic factors including the real estate market and external trade conditions [3][4]. - The government work report emphasizes the possibility of timely reductions in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, indicating a broader trend towards easing monetary policy [3][4]. Summary by Sections LPR Pricing - The LPR pricing in March remained stable, reflecting the unchanged policy rates and a lack of pressure to lower rates due to strong economic growth momentum at the beginning of the year [2][3]. - The report notes that the net interest margin for commercial banks has decreased to 1.52%, indicating a historical low, which may limit the motivation for banks to lower LPR [2]. Economic Indicators - The report discusses the impact of various economic indicators, including consumption and investment growth, which have not shown significant negative effects from trade tensions [2][3]. - It also mentions the potential for targeted interest rate cuts for housing loans to stabilize the real estate market, which is seen as a critical measure for economic support [3][4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that LPR may be adjusted downwards independently of policy rate changes, with a focus on improving the quality of LPR pricing to better reflect market conditions [4]. - It suggests that the government may issue special bonds to support capital replenishment for major state-owned banks, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on the gold market, with expectations of high volatility and potential price increases in the near term [1]. Core Viewpoints - The market's risk aversion has intensified, leading to a new high in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching $2993.60 per ounce, a 2.60% increase from the previous week [1][4]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to trade disputes and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. - Recent U.S. inflation data has shown a decline, which is expected to further support gold prices as market participants anticipate a higher risk of economic downturn compared to inflationary pressures [2][21]. Market Review - Gold prices saw significant increases last week, with the Shanghai gold futures closing at 694.96 CNY per gram, up 2.28%, and COMEX gold futures at $2993.60 per ounce, up 2.60% [4][7]. - The international gold basis (spot-futures) fell significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8]. - The gold T+D spot price also rose, reflecting strong market interest and trading activity [4][7]. Holding Analysis - Global gold ETF holdings increased by 12.07 tons, reaching 960.41 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold investments [17]. - The trading volume for domestic gold T+D rose by 4.89% compared to the previous week, suggesting a rebound in market activity [17]. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - U.S. inflation expectations have shown a slight increase, with short-term expectations rising to 3.1% for the next year, while long-term expectations remain stable [21][22]. - Recent consumer confidence data indicates a decline, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 57.9, the lowest in over two years, reflecting growing economic concerns [25]. Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - The report notes that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to maintain interest rates, influenced by the recent inflation data [38]. Dollar Index Trends - The U.S. dollar index experienced a slight decline, closing at 103.74, influenced by mixed economic signals and consumer sentiment [39]. International Events Tracking - Geopolitical risks have escalated, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which may continue to impact gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong growth momentum in the macro economy for early 2025, with a positive outlook on domestic demand driving economic performance [2][16]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic data for January-February 2025 shows a year-on-year industrial value-added growth of 5.9%, a slight decrease from December 2024's 6.2% [1][4]. - Social retail sales increased by 4.0% year-on-year in January-February 2025, reflecting a strengthening consumer confidence and consumption growth [2][10]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February 2025, significantly up from the 3.2% growth in 2024, driven by accelerated infrastructure investment and a narrowing decline in real estate investment [2][12]. Summary by Sections Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth for January-February 2025 was 5.9%, down 0.3 percentage points from December 2024, primarily due to fewer calendar and working days [4][5]. - Manufacturing value-added growth slowed to 6.9%, impacted by external factors such as increased tariffs from the U.S. [4][6]. - Despite the slowdown, the manufacturing sector showed resilience with a 10.6% growth in equipment manufacturing and a 9.1% growth in high-tech manufacturing [5][6]. Consumption - Retail sales growth accelerated to 4.0% in January-February 2025, with notable increases in optional consumer goods, supported by policies promoting consumption [7][10]. - The consumer confidence index rose by 0.9 percentage points, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment [9][10]. - Specific categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies saw significant retail growth, with increases of 26.2% and 21.8% respectively [9][10]. Investment - Fixed asset investment growth reached 4.1%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting proactive macroeconomic policies [12][13]. - Real estate investment saw a decline of 9.8%, but the rate of decline narrowed compared to the previous year, indicating potential stabilization in the sector [14][15]. - Manufacturing investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.0%, supported by ongoing policies for equipment upgrades and transformation [15][16].

Economic Growth - In January-February 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[1][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% year-on-year, up 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[1][8] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.1% year-on-year, significantly accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[1][12] Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from December 2024, primarily due to fewer calendar days[4][5] - Export delivery value growth for industrial enterprises fell by 2.6 percentage points to 6.2% compared to December 2024, influenced by new tariffs imposed by the U.S.[4][5] - Equipment manufacturing added value grew by 10.6%, and high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.1%, indicating strong industrial production momentum[5][16] Consumer Trends - Consumer confidence showed marginal improvement, with the consumer confidence index rising by 0.9 percentage points in February 2025[9][10] - Retail sales of optional consumer goods, excluding automobiles, saw significant growth, with categories like communication equipment and furniture increasing by 26.2% and 21.8% respectively[9][10] - Despite a 4.0% growth in retail sales, this level remains about half of pre-pandemic figures, indicating ongoing weak market demand[10][11] Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment, excluding electricity, grew by 5.6%, reflecting proactive macroeconomic policies and increased local government bond issuance[12][13] - Real estate investment declined by 9.8%, but the drop was less severe than in the previous year, suggesting a potential stabilization in the housing market[14][15] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0%, supported by policies aimed at upgrading the manufacturing sector and addressing supply chain issues[15][16]

Group 1: Loan and Financing Trends - In February 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 1.01 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 440 billion[1] - The social financing scale in February was 2.23 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 737.4 billion[6] - The growth rate of broad money (M2) remained at 7.0%, unchanged from the previous month[7] Group 2: Factors Influencing Loan Dynamics - The significant reduction in new loans is primarily due to the large-scale replacement of local government hidden debts, which has led to a decrease in new corporate medium- and long-term loans[2] - In February, corporate medium- and long-term loans decreased by 750 billion year-on-year, while short-term loans fell by 200 billion[4] - The increase in government bond financing, which reached 1.70 trillion in February, was a key driver behind the growth in social financing[6] Group 3: Economic Implications - The current financial data indicates a stronger support from the financial sector for stabilizing economic growth and mitigating risks in key areas[9] - The demand for resident loans has weakened, with a year-on-year decrease of 201.6 billion, reflecting low consumer and business credit demand[5] - The government work report aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a consumer price increase of about 2%, suggesting that social financing and M2 growth may need to exceed these targets to support economic recovery[10][11]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In February 2025, the CPI year-on-year growth turned negative at -0.7%, down from 0.5% in January, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of -0.1% for January-February, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from December 2024[1] - The decline in CPI is primarily attributed to the Spring Festival timing effect, with significant drops in food and service prices, particularly a 12.6% decrease in vegetable prices and a 3.3% decline in overall food prices[5] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year growth of 0.3% for January-February, indicating persistent weak demand in the market[7] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI in February 2025 decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, a slight improvement from a 2.3% decline in January, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - The decline in PPI is largely influenced by falling energy prices, particularly in oil and coal, but the rate of decline has narrowed due to improved demand from post-holiday resumption of work and growth stabilization policies[10] - The PPI for production materials fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, reflecting weak demand for industrial products[13] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rebound to around 0.3% year-on-year in March 2025, driven by a lower price base from the previous year[9] - The ability of the macro economy to escape low price levels in 2025 will depend on the stabilization of the real estate market, external trade environment changes, and the intensity of macro policies aimed at boosting consumption[9] - The government has set a CPI control target of around 2.0% for 2025, the lowest since 2004, indicating a focus on moderate price recovery[10]