Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with Q1 growth at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%[3] - The industrial added value in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, up from 5.8% in the previous month[3] - Cumulative industrial added value for the first half of 2025 was 6.4%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[3] Consumption Trends - Retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[3] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.0%, significantly higher than the 3.5% for the entire year of 2024[3] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted retail sales, with related products seeing over 20% growth in sales[14] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment in the first half of 2025 grew by 2.8%, down from 3.7% previously, with a full-year growth target of around 4.2%[3] - Infrastructure investment showed stable growth, while real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 11.2% in the first half[21] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to negatively impact exports in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to a shift from positive to negative growth in exports[5] - The government is likely to implement more proactive fiscal policies, including increased spending and interest rate cuts, to counteract external pressures[7] - GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 4.7% in the second half, ensuring an annual target of approximately 5.0% is met[7]

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, a rise of 1 percentage point compared to May[3] - Exports to the US fell by 16.1% year-on-year in June, but the decline narrowed by 18.4 percentage points from the previous month, contributing approximately 2.7 percentage points to overall export growth[4] - For the first half of 2025, China's exports grew by 5.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year[6] Import Trends - In June 2025, imports rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from May[7] - Imports from the US decreased by 15.5% year-on-year in June, with the decline narrowing by 2.6 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Cumulatively, imports in the first half of 2025 fell by 3.9% year-on-year, a slowdown of 6.0 percentage points compared to the same period last year[10] Market Dynamics - The reduction in US tariffs following the Geneva talks in May has led to a significant recovery in exports to the US, although tariffs remain high at approximately 41.3%[4] - The "temporary suspension" of global tariffs by the US has allowed Chinese companies to continue exporting to markets outside the US, with exports to ASEAN growing by 16.8% year-on-year in June[4] - The overall trade environment remains volatile, with expectations of a decline in export growth to around 1.0% in July due to ongoing high tariffs and weakening external demand[6]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion, an increase of 110 billion year-on-year[4] - The total social financing scale in June was 4.20 trillion, up 900.8 billion year-on-year[10] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - June saw a significant recovery in new loans, primarily due to a low base from the previous year and the effects of recent financial support measures[6] - Cumulatively, new loans in the first half of the year totaled 12.92 trillion, a decrease of 350 billion year-on-year, largely influenced by local government debt replacement[9] - The structure of credit improved, with short-term loans for enterprises increasing by 490 billion in June, indicating rising short-term financing needs[8] Group 3: Government and Policy Impact - Government bond financing was a major driver of social financing growth, with an increase of 503.2 billion year-on-year in June[12] - The financial support measures implemented in May are gradually showing positive effects, contributing to the increase in both new loans and social financing[5] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[16]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR for 1-year and 5-year terms remains unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, aligning with market expectations[4] - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a stable yet strong economic performance, reducing the immediate necessity for LPR adjustments[5] - The central bank is expected to maintain a policy observation period, with LPR prices likely to remain stable in the short term[5] Group 2: Future Adjustments and Economic Context - There is potential for LPR adjustments in the second half of the year due to external uncertainties and efforts to boost domestic demand[5] - The central bank's recent reduction of the public housing loan rate by 0.25 percentage points opens up possibilities for further reductions in commercial mortgage rates[6] - The actual residential mortgage rate is currently at 4.3%, near historical highs, necessitating adjustments to stimulate housing demand[6] - The next LPR adjustment is anticipated around early Q4, with a potential reduction greater than the previous 0.1 percentage points, possibly reaching 0.2 percentage points[6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 11, the capital market showed a complex situation. The capital side slightly tightened, the bond market was weakly volatile, the convertible bond market had mixed performance, and the yields of U.S. and European government bonds generally increased. There were also significant events in domestic and international policies, as well as price changes in commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned insurance companies to implement long - cycle assessment from 2025, adjusting ROE and capital preservation and appreciation rate to "annual + three - year + five - year" indicators [3]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Measures for the Suitability Management of Financial Institution Products", which will take effect on February 1, 2026 [4]. - The NAFMII launched a self - regulatory investigation into 6 lead underwriters [4]. - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs raised a total of 289.88 billion yuan and will be listed on July 17. Fund companies are preparing for the second batch [5]. - **International News** - Trump announced that the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025, and other trading partners may face 15% - 20% tariffs [6]. - **Commodities** - On July 11, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI August crude oil futures rose 2.8%, Brent September crude oil futures rose 2.5%, COMEX gold futures rose 1.41%, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.24% [7]. 3.2 Capital Side - **Open Market Operations** - On July 11, the central bank conducted 847 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 507 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [9]. - **Funding Rates** - On July 11, the capital side slightly tightened. DR001 rose 2.00bp to 1.343%, and DR007 fell 2.27bp to 1.472% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 11, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.65bp to 1.6660%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 0.50bp to 1.7430% [13]. - **Bond Tendering**: Information on the tendering of 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 12 (re - issuance) and 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 10 (second re - issuance) is provided [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On July 11, the transaction prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "19 Baolong MTN002" fell more than 67%, "H0 Baolong 04" rose more than 122%, and "H1 Bidi 02" rose more than 192% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies such as Gome Electric Appliance, Orient Fashion, and Jiaoda Angli announced significant events including new enforcement information, pre - reorganization, and being investigated by the CSRC [16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 11, the three major A - share indexes rose. The convertible bond market was divided, with the CSI Convertible Bond and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indexes rising 0.03% and 0.20% respectively, and the Shanghai Convertible Bond index falling 0.08% [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Information on the listing, conversion price adjustment, and early redemption of multiple convertible bonds is provided [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 11, the yields of U.S. bonds across all maturities generally increased, and the yield spreads of some maturities widened. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury bond (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose 3bp to 2.37% [20][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 11, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies generally increased [23]. - **Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of July 11 are presented, including the price changes of bonds of companies such as Ideal Auto and CNOOC [25].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with major repo rates rising slightly. Under the influence of multiple negative factors, the bond market weakened significantly. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and rose, with most individual convertible bonds increasing. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally increased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange held a policy briefing on the "1 + 6" reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The National Development and Reform Commission plans to increase investment in key areas of new - type urbanization using "two important and two new" funds [3]. - **International News**: On July 10, Fed Governor Waller suggested considering a rate cut in July, stating that the current federal funds rate is overly restrictive [4]. - **Commodities**: On July 10, international crude oil futures prices declined (WTI August crude futures fell 2.19% to $66.88/barrel, Brent September crude futures fell 2.2% to $68.64/barrel), while international natural gas prices rose (NYMEX natural gas prices rose 4.96% to $3.365/ounce), and COMEX gold futures rose 0.38% to $3333.67/ounce [6]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations**: On July 10, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 57.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 32.8 billion yuan [8]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 10, the liquidity tightened marginally, with DR001 rising 0.56bp to 1.323% and DR007 rising 1.78bp to 1.495% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 10, affected by factors such as the continuous improvement of the stock market, marginal tightening of liquidity, and rumors that Hebei Province guided rural commercial banks to reduce the proportion of bond investments, the bond market weakened significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 1.45bp to 1.6595%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250210 rose 1.40bp to 1.7380% [11]. - **Bond Tendering**: Details of bond issuances including various bonds such as 25贴现国开清发02, 25国开清发02(增发19), etc., are provided, including their tenors, issuance scales, winning yields, over - subscription ratios, and marginal ratios [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 10, 2 industrial bonds ("H1碧地02" down over 34% and "23亦庄06" up over 11%) and 1 urban investment bond ("20泗阳佳鼎债" down over 18%) had transaction price deviations exceeding 10% [14][15]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Events include bond restructuring of Longfor Group, regulatory warnings for Lan创建设, debt - related issues of Xi'an Quwen Investment, Jiangsu Nantong Sanjian, etc., as well as bond repayment and interest - rate adjustment plans of some companies [16]. 3.4 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On July 10, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 0.48%, 0.47%, and 0.22% respectively, and the full - day trading volume reaching 1.52 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond indexes also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index up 0.40%, 0.40%, and 0.45% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 68.377 billion yuan, a decrease of 994 million yuan from the previous trading day. Among 469 convertible bonds, 338 rose, 123 fell, and 8 remained flat [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 10, Zhite Convertible Bond announced an early redemption, and Hongcheng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to meet the early redemption conditions [19]. 3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury remained unchanged at 3.86%, while yields of other tenors generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 49bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 93bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.34% [20][21][22]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 10, the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond remained unchanged, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.66%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, Italy, and Spain rose 4bp, 4bp, and 1bp respectively [23]. - **Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: Price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 10 are provided, including daily and monthly changes of bonds issued by companies such as Oceanwide, Country Garden, NIO, etc. [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the liquidity remained loose; affected by the stock-bond seesaw effect, the bond market oscillated weakly; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues increased; the yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies generally increased [1] Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other three departments will support eligible zero-carbon park projects through local government special bond funds, etc., and encourage policy banks to provide medium - and long - term credit support [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment for the work - relief program, supporting 1,975 projects in 26 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, expected to pay 4.59 billion yuan in labor remuneration and help 310,000 key groups stabilize employment and increase income [3] - On July 8, the central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures for Bond Connect, including improving the south - bound mechanism, optimizing the offshore repo business mechanism, and optimizing the Swap Connect operation mechanism [4] - The central bank is actively researching other measures to promote the opening - up of the bond market, such as deepening the connectivity between domestic and foreign financial markets, improving cross - border investment and financing facilitation, and enriching the offshore RMB financial product system [6] (2) International News - Trump said that equal - tariff measures would be implemented starting August 1, 2025, and warned that the EU would receive a tariff letter, with potential tariff rates of 60% - 70% and a 10% tariff increase on India [7] (3) Commodities - On July 8, WTI August crude oil futures rose 0.59% to $68.33 per barrel, Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.82% to $70.15 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.96% to $3,310.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.88% to $3.349 per ounce [8] 2. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 8, the central bank conducted 69 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 131 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 62 billion yuan [10] (2) Funding Rates - On July 8, the liquidity remained loose. DR001 rose 0.01bp to 1.315%, and DR007 fell 0.25bp to 1.464%. Other funding rates also showed corresponding changes [11][12] 3. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On July 8, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market oscillated weakly. The yields of 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 and 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 rose 0.30bp and 0.55bp respectively [14][15] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: The tendering information of several bonds such as 25Guokai02 (Zeng4), 25Guokai08 (Zeng6) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, etc. [16] (2) Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 8, 7 urban investment bonds had transaction price deviations of over 10%, with some falling and some rising [17] - **Credit Bond Events**: Events such as overdue debts of Shimao Construction, overseas debt restructuring of Times China Holdings were reported [19] (3) Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 8, the three major A - share indices rose collectively, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also rose. The convertible bond market turnover was 76.882 billion yuan [19][20] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On July 9, Guanghe Convertible Bond started online subscription. On July 8, Lanfan Convertible Bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and several convertible bonds announced early redemption or were about to meet early redemption conditions [26] (4) Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 8, the yield of 2 - year U.S. Treasuries remained unchanged at 3.90%, while the yields of other maturities generally increased. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 2bp, and the 5/30 - year spread narrowed by 1bp [23][25] - **European Bond Market**: On July 8, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased, with Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the UK seeing corresponding increases [28] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - issued Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of the close on July 8 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, and price changes [30]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1% for the first half of the year[1][2] - The main drivers for the CPI increase were a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in vegetable prices and a rise in domestic energy prices due to international crude oil price increases[2][3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.4%, indicating a weak overall price level[3][6] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In June 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, widening from a decline of 3.3% in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% for the first half of the year[1][2][8] - The PPI decline was primarily influenced by weak domestic demand and oversupply, leading to accelerated price declines in coal, steel, and cement[2][9] - The PPI's month-on-month decline remained at 0.4%, consistent with the previous month, marking four consecutive months of such a decline[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the CPI may return to negative territory in July, likely around -0.2%, due to external economic pressures and high base effects from the previous year[7][12] - The PPI is expected to continue its month-on-month decline in July, but the rate of decline may slightly narrow, with a year-on-year decline projected to remain around -3.6%[12]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose. The yields of the bond market showed a divergent trend, with the medium - and short - end yields continuing to decline and the long - end yields rising slightly. The convertible bond market also showed divergence following the equity market, and most convertible bond issues declined. The 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies also showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members. The central bank solicited public opinions on the revised business rules of the RMB Cross - border Payment System. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management business guidelines, which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [3][4]. - **International News**: Elon Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on July 5, aiming to "avoid US bankruptcy" and indicating participation in the 2026 mid - term elections. This marked the breakdown of his political alliance with Trump [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 4, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 0.72% to $68.30 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.24%. Spot gold rose 0.33% to $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92%. NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.53% to $3.387 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On July 4, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 491.9 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 0.10bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 4.52bp to 1.422%. Various inter - bank lending and repurchase rates also showed downward trends [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: On July 4, the trends of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds diverged. The medium - and short - end yields continued to decline due to loose liquidity, while the long - end yields rose slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.15bp to 1.6410% [14]. - **Bond Tenders**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25进出清发02, 25附息国债07(续2), and 25附息国债11(续2) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 4, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H1碧地01" falling more than 66% and "H0中骏02" falling more than 19% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Sunac China, Fantasia Holdings, Vanke, and Yida China announced matters related to share issuance, debt restructuring, guarantee balances, and loan defaults [17]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 4, the three major A - share indices showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.25% and 0.36% respectively. The convertible bond market also showed divergence, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rising 0.15% and 0.24% respectively, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.01%. Most convertible bond issues declined [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some convertible bonds such as Jingao Convertible Bond proposed to lower the conversion price, and some such as Jingduan Convertible Bond announced early redemptions [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market was closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 4, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed a divergent trend. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield dropped 1bp to 2.57%, France's rose 1bp, and those of Italy and the UK remained unchanged, while Spain's dropped 1bp [22]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of some Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of July 4 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields [25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the bond market. 2. Core Views - Last week, the bond market showed a warm and volatile trend, with the yield curve becoming steeper. Despite some negative factors, the market was supported by loose liquidity and reduced treasury bond issuance, leading to a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term rates continued to fall due to "spread - chasing" trades, further steepening the yield curve [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The upcoming June inflation data is likely to improve marginally but remain at a low level, with limited negative impact on the bond market. If liquidity remains loose, short - term bond rates may decline further. Long - term rates will likely continue to fluctuate, and the yield curve is expected to keep steepening [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was warm and volatile last week, with long - term bond yields falling slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.03% for the week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.29bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped by 0.90bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - Daily trends: On June 30, the bond market weakened initially but recovered slightly at the end. From July 1 - 3, the market was generally positive due to loose liquidity and "spread - chasing" trades. On July 4, short - term bonds were strong, while long - term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [3]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - A total of 47 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 130 fewer than the previous week. The issuance volume was 513.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 354.4 billion yuan, and the net financing was 376.6 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 404.1 billion yuan. Treasury and policy - bank bond issuance and net financing increased, while local government bond issuance and net financing decreased significantly [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds were 4.21 times, 3.38 times, and 21.15 times respectively [12]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In June, China's macro - economic sentiment continued to recover. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%. The improvement was due to the effects of growth - stabilizing policies and eased trade tensions. The service PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, in line with seasonal patterns [13]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, most high - frequency data declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, semi - steel tire operating rates, and daily hot - metal production, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased slightly. - On the demand side, the BDI index and the CCFI index both decreased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities dropped significantly. - In terms of prices, pork prices rebounded slightly, and most commodity prices rose, including crude oil, copper, and rebar [14]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan from the open market last week. - R007 and DR007 both declined significantly, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks decreased, the 3 - month national - share direct - discount rate dropped, and the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated slightly and remained basically the same as the previous week [24].