Export Performance - In December 2024, export value increased by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant rise of 4 percentage points from November's 6.7% growth[2] - December exports to the US surged by 15.6%, accelerating by 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The overall export growth for 2024 reached a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, up from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[4] Import Performance - December 2024 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in import value, rebounding from a 3.9% decline in November[2] - The annual import growth for 2024 was 1.1%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[11] - Despite the positive December performance, the import growth remains low, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand[8] Market Trends and Outlook - The global trade growth rate is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, indicating a continued recovery in external demand[6] - The electronics sector, particularly integrated circuits, is projected to drive export growth, with export volume and value increasing by 11.6% and 17.4% respectively in 2024[5] - The forecast for early 2025 suggests a potential slowdown in export growth to around 1.0% due to high base effects from the previous year[6]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses the performance and outlook of a waterproofing materials company, specifically focusing on its operations in the construction and civil engineering sectors. Key Points and Arguments 1. Q4 Performance and Shipping Volume - The company reported a significant increase in shipping volume in December 2024, with a growth of over 40% for rolled materials and 70% for a specific product line, Huartou Liang [2][3][4] 2. Market Conditions and Demand - The demand for waterproofing materials has not shown a clear improvement despite the growth in shipping volume, largely due to a low base effect from the previous year [2][3] - The company noted that the construction sector is undergoing a "deconstruction" process, impacting accounts receivable and cash flow [4][5] 3. Business Strategy and Transformation - The company is shifting its business model from a focus on large-scale construction projects to developing retail channels and partnerships, particularly in non-residential sectors [5][6] - The company aims to maintain a domestic revenue base of approximately 30 billion [9] 4. Industry Challenges - The waterproofing industry has faced significant declines, with a reported drop of 20-30% in overall market demand in 2024 [10][27] - The company anticipates continued pressure on demand in 2025, particularly in the construction sector, but expects to perform better than in 2024 due to structural adjustments [12][18] 5. Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing a shakeout, with many small and mid-sized companies exiting due to financial pressures, while larger firms are expected to benefit from increased market share [32][33] - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and leveraging its established brand to capture market opportunities [46][47] 6. International Expansion - The company is expanding its operations in Southeast Asia and the U.S., with ongoing projects in Malaysia and Texas [8][42] - The U.S. market presents significant growth potential, with an expected annual growth rate of over 10% [42] 7. Product Application and Market Segmentation - The waterproofing materials are used in various applications, including residential renovations, repairs, and large-scale construction projects [22][23][24] - The company is focusing on improving its service offerings to differentiate itself from competitors, particularly in the U.S. market [48][49] 8. Financial Management - The company is actively working to reduce accounts receivable and improve cash flow, with a focus on converting inventory into cash [20][39] Other Important Content - The company is optimistic about its ability to navigate the current market challenges and believes that its strategic transformation will position it well for future growth [34][35] - The management emphasized the importance of maintaining a customer-centric approach and enhancing service quality to build long-term relationships with clients [48][49]

Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank will issue 60 billion yuan in central bank bills in the Hong Kong market, aimed at tightening offshore RMB liquidity and stabilizing the exchange rate[2] - This issuance is part of a broader strategy to prevent excessive depreciation expectations of the RMB and to signal a commitment to maintaining market order[2] Exchange Rate Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in the RMB have increased, with the onshore RMB breaching the 7.3 mark on January 3, raising market concerns[3] - The depreciation pressure on the RMB is influenced by the strengthening of the US dollar, driven by concerns over US tariffs and changing interest rate expectations[3] Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate flexibility is expected to increase by 2025, with a higher tolerance for depreciation while still fluctuating around a reasonable equilibrium level[4] - In the short term, the RMB may have further downward space, but risks in the exchange market remain limited due to stable domestic economic fundamentals[5] Regulatory Measures - The regulatory authorities are prepared to intervene in the exchange market if there are significant deviations in the RMB's exchange rate from fundamental values[5] - Various policy tools may be employed, including adjusting the macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing and foreign exchange reserve requirements, to guide market expectations and mitigate risks[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.5% year-on-year, significantly down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to falling prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork[4] - The overall CPI decline was influenced by a high base from the previous year, with non-food prices remaining stable and showing a slight increase compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline was 2.3%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to a lower base effect[1] - December PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, contrasting with a 0.1% increase in the previous month, indicating weakening marginal trends[8] - The decline in coal prices and reduced momentum in steel and non-ferrous metal prices contributed to the overall PPI weakness, with the PPI for durable consumer goods also declining[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - In January 2025, the CPI is expected to rise to around 1.0% due to concentrated consumer demand ahead of the Spring Festival[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline is projected to narrow to approximately -2.1% in January 2025, supported by a lower base and increased growth policies[10] - The overall economic recovery and stabilization of the real estate market will be crucial for improving consumer confidence and demand in 2025[6]

Economic Growth Projections - Global GDP growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024, and below the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%[70] - China's GDP growth is expected to reach approximately 4.7% in 2025, up from 4.0% in 2024[22] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to slightly accelerate, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintaining rapid growth, while real estate investment decline is expected to narrow[22] - Social retail sales growth is projected to increase from 3.8% in 2024 to 6.0% in 2025, with final consumption contributing 70%-80% to economic growth[125] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is expected to rise to around 4.0%, with new special bond issuance projected to increase to 6.5 trillion yuan[49] - Monetary policy is shifting to a more accommodative stance, with a potential interest rate cut of 0.5 percentage points in 2025[111] External Trade and Challenges - The impact of "Trade War 2.0" is anticipated to slow down exports, with the share of exports to the U.S. declining from 19% in 2017 to approximately 14.5% in 2024[29] - External demand is expected to contribute less to economic growth in 2025 due to increased trade tensions and geopolitical risks[22] Inflation and Price Levels - Low inflation is projected to persist in 2025, providing room for policy adjustments[50] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain low, with the GDP deflator showing negative growth, indicating a need for effective price level management[96]

时间 核心观点 1.1 黄金现货期货价格走势 1 www.dfratings.com 数据来源：iFind，东方金诚 图 5 上周黄金内外盘价差小幅回落（元/克） 图 6 上周金银比继续小幅上涨（COMEX 黄金/COMEX 白银） 1.4 持仓分析 图 9 上周全球黄金 ETF 持仓量大幅回升 图 10 上周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓量明显回升 1400 1410 1420 1430 1440 1450 1460 1470 1480 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 伦敦金(美元/盎司) 黄金ETF持仓总计（吨）：右轴 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 750 800 850 900 950 1000 SPDR黄金持仓量(吨) 伦敦金(美元/盎司) 图 11 上周黄金 T+D 成交量有所回落（元/克） 图 12 黄金 CFTC 多头净持仓量有所回落（张） 图 13 上周 COMEX 黄金期货库存继续大幅增加 图 14 上周上期所黄金期货库存小幅回落（千克） 数据来源：iFind，东方 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call pertains to the construction materials industry, specifically focusing on the company 华源建材 (Huayuan Building Materials) and its recent performance and strategic shifts [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - The company faced significant pressure on demand this year, leading to a decline in sales and revenue across various product lines, particularly in the waterproofing materials sector [1][2][5]. - In October and November, there was a recovery in sales, with waterproofing membranes showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% and waterproof coatings experiencing single-digit growth [3][4]. - Despite the recovery in late 2023, the overall revenue for the year is expected to decline due to earlier significant drops in sales during the first three quarters [5][6]. Strategic Shifts - The company has shifted its sales strategy from a focus on large B2B direct sales to prioritizing retail and small B2B channels, which has shown positive results in terms of operational quality and cash flow [6][10]. - The transition to a retail-first approach has been emphasized, with a notable improvement in operational metrics such as cash flow and accounts receivable management [6][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - The company acknowledged that its initial budget for the year was overly optimistic, leading to increased expense ratios and pressure on profits [6][8]. - The real estate sector, which previously contributed significantly to revenue, has seen a drastic reduction from approximately 14 billion in 2021 to an expected 1.2 billion this year, highlighting the impact of the strategic shift away from large B2B clients [11][12]. - Looking ahead, the company anticipates that while the overall industry demand will remain under pressure, the successful transformation of its business model will help mitigate revenue shortfalls in the coming year [10][14]. Operational Improvements - The company is focusing on optimizing its personnel structure and expense management to improve operational efficiency and profitability in 2024 [8][9]. - The integration of various business units under a unified management structure is expected to enhance operational effectiveness and streamline processes [20][21]. Additional Important Information - The company has seen a significant increase in its retail network, with the number of distribution points reaching approximately 300,000, up from 220,000 at the end of the previous year [25]. - The management is committed to addressing historical issues related to inventory and channel inefficiencies, which have previously hindered profitability [22][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current challenges, strategic shifts, and future outlook within the construction materials industry.

Monetary Policy Insights - The December LPR (Loan Prime Rate) remained unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year rate and 3.60% for the 5-year rate, consistent with market expectations[2][7] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and the significant reduction in LPR in October, which followed a 20 basis point cut in September[7] Economic Outlook - Economic indicators have shown improvement since October, with the official manufacturing PMI remaining in the expansion zone, indicating a recovery in both supply and demand[3] - The central bank is expected to implement a more accommodative monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts of 0.5 percentage points in 2025, which is higher than the 0.3 percentage point reduction this year[9] Credit and Lending Environment - The central bank may lower the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.25-0.5 percentage points, potentially releasing between 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan into the economy[13] - There is an anticipated increase in new loan issuance to support the real economy, particularly in the real estate sector, with room for lower loan rates for both enterprises and residents[8][9]

Revenue Insights - In November 2024, national general public budget revenue increased by 11.0% year-on-year, up from 5.5% in October[1] - Tax revenue showed a positive growth of 5.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.5 percentage points compared to October[28] - Non-tax revenue continued to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 40.4%, up by 0.8 percentage points from October[28] Expenditure Trends - National general public budget expenditure grew by 3.8% year-on-year in November, a slowdown of 6.6 percentage points from October[1] - Cumulative expenditure from January to November increased by 2.8% year-on-year, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[22] - Government fund expenditure in November saw a significant slowdown, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping from 47.9% in October to 6.3%[9] Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Cumulative government fund revenue from January to November decreased by 18.4%, a slight improvement from the -19.0% recorded in January to October[16] - In November, government fund revenue fell by 14.9% year-on-year, with the decline primarily driven by a significant drop in land transfer income, which decreased from -10.5% to -19.7%[16] Overall Fiscal Performance - From a broad fiscal perspective, the year-on-year growth rate of total fiscal revenue slowed from 2.4% in October to 0.9% in November, while total fiscal expenditure growth also decreased from 20.4% to 4.6%[17] - Despite the slowdown in both revenue and expenditure growth, they remained at relatively high levels for the year, indicating the continued impact of stable growth policies implemented since September[18]

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------| | | ——美联储 12 月货币政策会议点评与展望 | | | 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 | 事件：12 月 18 日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间从 4.5%至 4.75%降至 4.25%至 4.5%，连续第二次会议决定降息 25 个基点,符合市场预期。本次会议声明 继续重申就业和通胀的风险大体均衡、坚定致力于支持充分就业，缩表计划未变，新增考虑未来利率 调整的"程度和时机"。点阵图显示联储官员上调未来三年利率预期，明后年利率预期中位值均上调 50 基点，预计明后年均有两次降息。联储官员上调今明年 GDP 和 PCE 通胀预期，下调这两年失业率 预期，明年 PCE 通胀预期上调 0.4 个百分点至 2.5%，失业率预期下调 0.1 个百分点至 4.3%。 鲍威尔表示，本次会议作出的降息决定比较艰难，在实现控制通胀和促进就业的双重目标方面， 美联储所面临的风险大致平衡，控制通胀已经取得显著进展。虽然已经降息 100 基点 ...