Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion remained high last week, with the COMEX gold futures price breaking through $3,100 per ounce. On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 2.24% to 722.80 yuan per gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 2.97% to $3,118 per ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 2.05% to 720.56 yuan per gram, and the London gold spot price rose 2.04% to $3,084.33 per ounce. Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on all imported cars and geopolitical risks increased market risk aversion, pushing up gold prices. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February and the decline of the US stock market further boosted gold prices [1]. - This week, the gold price will fluctuate at a high level. Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy will increase both inflation and economic downturn risks in the US, keeping market risk aversion high and supporting the gold price. However, the release of the US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in March may ease concerns about economic downturn, support the US dollar index, and suppress the gold price. Overall, the gold price will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 28, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 722.80 yuan per gram, up 15.84 yuan from March 21; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3,118 per ounce, up $89.80. The gold T+D spot price closed at 720.56 yuan per gram, up 14.48 yuan; the London gold spot price closed at $3,084.33 per ounce, up $61.54 [3]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 28, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $18.40 per ounce, down $6.60 from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis fell to - 0.58 yuan per gram, down 1.52 yuan [7]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 28, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.28 yuan per gram, slightly down from 3.68 yuan. The unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index in February increased market risk aversion, boosting the foreign - market gold price more than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio rose slightly, the gold - silver ratio fell slightly, and the gold - copper ratio rose significantly due to the PCE data and market risk preference changes [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF position increased slightly last week. As of March 28, the SPDR gold ETF's holdings were 931.94 tons, up 1.43 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased by 29.25% to 151,052 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the net long position of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory increased, and the SHFE gold inventory remained at 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US manufacturing PMI in March unexpectedly returned to contraction at 49.8, while the service and composite PMIs were better than expected. The US consumer confidence index in March dropped to 92.9, with the expected index hitting a 12 - year low. Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars effective April 2. The US Q4 2024 GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was revised up to 2.4%. The US core PCE in February rebounded to 2.79% year - on - year, and personal spending was lower than expected. The long - term inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in March reached a 32 - year high, and consumer confidence hit a more than two - year low [18][19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, several Fed officials were cautious about inflation and interest - rate cuts. Bostic expected only one rate cut this year. Mousalem was cautious about the impact of tariff hikes on inflation. Goolsbee said that if long - term inflation expectations rise, the next rate cut may be delayed [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index fluctuated slightly downward last week. The 25% car tariff policy and the unexpected rebound of the US core PCE price index increased concerns about "stagflation" and economic downturn, causing the dollar index to fall. As of March 28, it fell 0.12% to 104.03 [35]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the US 10 - year TIPS first rose and then fell last week, with an overall slight decline. Trump's tariff announcement on March 25 pushed up inflation expectations and the yield, but the low consumer confidence index led to a significant decline. As of March 28, it fell 2bp to 1.90% [38]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased, and the Israel - Hamas cease - fire was difficult to achieve. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks also faced difficulties, with both sides not wanting a hasty reconciliation and European countries opposing the lifting of sanctions on Russia, leading to a continuous rise in geopolitical risks [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, with major repo rates rising; the bond market showed a divergent trend, with long - term bonds performing well overall and short - term bonds weakening; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined following the trend, and most convertible bond issues fell; overseas, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally declined, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - In March, the manufacturing PMI reached 50.5%, a one - year high, and the non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index also increased. The construction industry PMI hit a new high since June 2024, indicating a more obvious sign of economic recovery [3]. - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance arrangements for government bonds in the second quarter of 2025, including the re - issuance of 30 - year ultra - long - term general government bonds on April 11th and the first issuance of special government bonds for central financial institution capital injection on April 24th [3]. - In 2025, the Ministry of Finance will issue the first batch of special government bonds worth 50 billion yuan to support the replenishment of core tier - one capital of large state - owned commercial banks, with issuance starting on April 24th [4]. - The CSRC held a meeting to improve the cross - departmental coordination mechanism for overseas listing filings, aiming to provide a more transparent, efficient, and predictable regulatory environment for enterprises [4][5]. - The NAFMII investigated cases of enterprises evading fund supervision and regulatory banks' negligence of duties, and clarified the requirements for the use and management of raised funds [5]. 3.1.2 International News - U.S. President Trump will decide on the final tariff policy on April 2nd, and multiple senior economic advisors have proposed a new reciprocal tariff plan [6]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On March 31st, international crude oil futures prices turned up, and international natural gas prices continued to rise. WTI May crude oil futures rose 3.05% to $71.48 per barrel, and Brent May crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $74.77 per barrel [7]. 3.2 Funding Situation 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On March 31st, the central bank conducted 166.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 31.7 billion yuan after 135 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [9]. 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On March 31st, at the end of the quarter, the funding situation tightened, and major repo rates rose. DR001 rose 8.43bp to 1.804%, and DR007 rose 13.79bp to 2.189% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 31st, interest - rate bonds showed a divergent trend. Long - term bonds first declined and then rose in yield, performing relatively well, while short - term bonds weakened due to the tightened funding situation. For example, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 240011 rose 1.00bp to 1.8075%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250205 fell 2.25bp to 1.8375% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of several agricultural development bonds, including the 182 - day 25NongfaDiscount03, 3 - year 25Nongfa03(Add11), and 5 - year 25Nongfa05(Add11), was provided [16]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On March 31st, the transaction prices of 2 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds deviated by more than 10%. For example, "H0 Yangcheng 02" rose more than 160%, and "18 Shehong Bond 01" fell more than 33% [16][17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced relevant credit events, such as Shanghai Shimao Co., Ltd. reporting overdue bond principal and interest, and Fuli Real Estate having the winding - up petition dismissed [20]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 31st, the three major A - share indices fell, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also declined. The convertible bond market turnover was 62.175 billion yuan, an increase of 4.552 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most convertible bond issues fell [19][21]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Dinglong Convertible Bond will start online subscription on April 2nd [22]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On March 31st, the yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond remained unchanged at 3.89%, while yields of other maturities generally declined. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell 4bp to 4.23% [23]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 31st, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend. For example, the yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained unchanged at 2.73%, while the yield of the Italian 10 - year government bond rose 1bp [26].

Revenue Analysis - In January-February 2025, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 2.9 percentage points compared to the previous year's total[2] - Tax revenue fell by 3.9%, widening the decline by 0.5 percentage points from the previous year, significantly lower than the 2.7% growth in December 2024[2] - Non-tax revenue increased by 11.0%, but the growth rate was lower than both the previous year and December 2024[4] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Individual income tax revenue rose by 26.7%, a significant increase from 9.1% in December 2024, while corporate income tax dropped by 10.4%, down from a 95.8% increase in December 2024[3] - Consumption tax revenue grew by 0.3%, slowing by 6.5 percentage points compared to December 2024, primarily due to a decline in automobile retail sales[4] - Land value-added tax and deed tax revenues fell by 21.7% and 22.1% respectively, indicating ongoing weakness in the real estate market[4] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure increased by 3.4% year-on-year, completing 15.2% of the annual budget, higher than the five-year average of 14.4%[5] - Interest payments on debt saw the fastest growth at 19.7%, reflecting increased pressure on local government debt[7] - Infrastructure spending growth slowed due to a high base from the previous year, but the two-year compound growth rate remained at 5.0%[7] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue fell by 10.7%, significantly lower than the 4.9% growth in December 2024, primarily due to a 15.7% decline in land transfer income[8] - Government fund expenditure grew by 1.2%, below the 12.6% increase in December 2024, impacted by a 19.2% drop in spending related to land transfer income[8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, the central bank's net injection supported the tax - period liquidity, leading to a recovery in the bond market. The long - term bond yields first declined and then rose, with an overall downward trend. Short - term interest rates also continued to fall, and the yield curve continued to steepen. [1] - This week, the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term improvement in economic data has limited impact on the bond market, and there is uncertainty about the monetary policy. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.8% - 1.9%. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Secondary Market**: The bond market recovered last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.38% in total. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 3.32bp, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 3.00bp compared with the previous Friday. The term spread slightly narrowed. [2] - **Primary Market**: A total of 92 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, an increase of 31 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 822.8 billion yuan, an increase of 316.7 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 691.9 billion yuan, an increase of 486.8 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds all increased compared with the previous week. The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. [10] 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - The central bank adjusted the MLF operation from single - price winning to multi - price winning. This change will further dilute the policy - rate nature of the MLF winning rate and highlight the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase rate as the main policy rate. The increased MLF roll - over in March may be related to factors such as the outflow of non - bank funds and the suspension of Treasury bond purchases, and may also imply a delay in reserve requirement ratio cuts. [13] 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, the blast furnace operating rate and daily average pig iron output continued to rise, the petroleum asphalt plant operating rate slightly declined, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically flat compared with the previous week. [14] - On the demand side, the BDI index slightly declined, the export container freight index CCFI continued to fall, and the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to rise. [14] - In terms of prices, the pork price continued to rise slightly, and most commodity prices increased. The prices of rebar and crude oil both rose, while the copper price slightly declined. [14] 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 300.1 billion yuan last week. [25] - R007 and DR007 both increased significantly, the issuance rate of joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly, the discount rates of national and stock - owned banks for various terms all increased, the trading volume of pledged repurchase significantly decreased, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio significantly increased. [26]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from February, indicating continued expansion for two consecutive months[1] - The new orders index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 51.8%, highlighting domestic demand as a key driver for the PMI rise[2] - The new export orders index unexpectedly rose by 0.4 percentage points to 49.0%, above the historical average of 48.1% over the past decade, suggesting resilience in external demand[2] Sector Performance - The small enterprises PMI rebounded significantly by 3.3 percentage points to 49.6%, the highest level in nearly 11 months, reflecting the effectiveness of recent demand-boosting policies[3] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 52.0% and 52.3%, respectively, both showing increases of 1.2 and 1.4 percentage points, driven by strong growth in new energy vehicles and equipment upgrades[3] - The consumer goods manufacturing PMI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, supported by policies promoting consumption upgrades[3] Price Indices and Economic Outlook - The main raw materials purchase price index fell by 1 percentage point to 49.8%, influenced by declining international prices for crude oil and iron ore[4] - The producer price index (PPI) is expected to maintain a year-on-year decline of around -2.2%, primarily due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and weak consumer demand[4] - The overall manufacturing PMI reflects seasonal recovery and the impact of growth-stabilizing policies, with Q1 GDP growth projected between 5.0% and 5.2%[5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View On March 26, the overall capital market was balanced, the bond market strengthened significantly, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed up collectively, and most convertible bond individual securities rose. Overseas, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: On March 26, the central department budgets for 2025 were publicly released. The Ministry of Finance emphasized the importance of budget disclosure. The State Council forwarded measures to support the cultivation and construction of international consumption - center cities. The results of the continuous reduction of non - performing loans in the banking industry are emerging, with different trends in different regions. A new wave of "land king tides" has emerged, with high - quality and high - price land concentrated in first - tier and strong second - tier cities [4][5][6]. - **International News**: On March 26, US President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2. Two Federal Reserve voting members disagreed with Powell, believing that the impact of tariffs on inflation may not be temporary [7][8]. - **Commodities**: On March 26, international crude oil futures prices turned up, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI May crude oil futures rose 0.94% to $69.65 per barrel, Brent May crude oil futures rose 1.05% to $73.79 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.02% to $3025.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.55% to $3.846 per ounce [9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations**: On March 26, the central bank conducted 455.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.50%. With 295.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 159.5 billion yuan [11]. - **Funding Rates**: On March 26, the capital market was generally balanced. DR001 rose 0.30bp to 1.784%, and DR007 rose 7.57bp to 1.982% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds**: - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On March 26, large - scale banks increased their allocation efforts, and the bond market strengthened significantly. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 240011 fell 2.85bp to 1.7775%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250205 fell 3.50bp to 1.8175% [15]. - **Bond Tendering**: The 25 Agricultural Development Bond 11 (Increment 3) with a term of 1.0932 years had an issue size of 11 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.5489%, a full - field multiple of 2.70, and a marginal multiple of 1.107. The 25 Agricultural Development Bond 10 (Increment 10) with a 10 - year term had an issue size of 13 billion yuan, a winning bid yield of 1.9558%, a full - field multiple of 3.72, and a marginal multiple of 1.3588 [17]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On March 26, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Zhongjun 02", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 29% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Rongsheng Development plans to formulate a debt - for - equity plan. Zhongcheng Asia - Pacific revoked the long - term credit rating of Zhoushan Putuo Urban Construction [18]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On March 26, the three major A - share indices closed down, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed up. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.36%, 0.19%, and 0.62% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 59.624 billion yuan, a decrease of 697 million yuan from the previous trading day [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: On March 28, Yonggui Convertible Bond will be listed, and Taineng Convertible Bond will start online subscription. Multiple convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, early redemptions, etc. [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: On March 26, the yields of US Treasury bonds of various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 2bp to 3.98%, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose 4bp to 4.35%. The 2/10 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 2bp to 37bp, and the 5/30 - year US Treasury bond yield spread widened by 3bp to 61bp [22][23]. - **European Bond Market**: On March 26, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield remained unchanged at 2.79%, France's rose 1bp, while Italy's and Spain's remained unchanged, and the UK's fell 3bp [26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar Bonds**: As of the close on March 26, the prices of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds showed different changes, with some rising and some falling [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk aversion and interest - rate cut expectations drove gold prices to new highs last week. On March 21, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 1.73% to 706.96 yuan/gram, the COMEX gold futures price rose 1.16% to 3028.20 dollars/ounce, the gold T + D spot price rose 1.92% to 706.08 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 1.31% to 3022.79 dollars/ounce. The weakening of the US dollar index and US stocks, the dovish signal from the Fed's March meeting, and geopolitical uncertainties supported the gold price. However, the rebound of the US dollar on Friday and profit - taking by some bulls led to a decline in the gold price. Overall, the gold price rose significantly last week [1]. - This week (the week of March 24), the gold price may face short - term correction pressure. The better - than - expected US existing home sales data, the rebound of the US dollar index, the possible rebound of the US stocks, and the easing of tariff concerns may restrict the inflow of funds into the gold market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements**: On March 21, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 706.96 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan/gram from March 14; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3028.20 dollars/ounce, up 34.60 dollars/ounce. The gold T + D spot price closed at 706.08 yuan/gram, up 13.28 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3022.79 dollars/ounce, up 39.00 dollars/ounce [3]. - **Gold Basis**: On March 21, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 11.80 dollars/ounce, up 0.15 dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis turned positive to 0.94 yuan/gram, up 1.44 yuan/gram [6]. - **Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread**: On March 21, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.68 yuan/gram, up from - 0.20 yuan/gram the previous week. The gold - oil ratio remained flat, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [9]. - **Position Analysis**: In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly last week. As of March 21, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 930.51 tons, up 24.10 tons. The trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased by 14.43% to 213,494 kilograms. In the futures market, as of March 18, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased significantly, and the short positions remained flat, leading to an increase in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [15]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Policy News**: Germany's federal parliament passed a 500 - billion - euro special fund for infrastructure and climate protection, and the defense budget will receive an additional 100 billion euros. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4.5%, and the call for an interest - rate cut weakened [17][19]. - **Important Economic Data**: The US initial jobless claims increased slightly, the JOLTS job openings decreased, the CPI and PPI decreased significantly, the ISM services PMI increased while the manufacturing PMI decreased, the unemployment rate increased, the non - farm payrolls increased slightly, the Michigan consumer confidence index decreased significantly, the durable goods orders increased significantly, and the core PCE decreased [21][23][26]. - **Fed Policy Tracking**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% and will slow down the balance - sheet reduction from April. The updated dot - plot shows two interest - rate cuts in 2025, but the number of people who expect no rate cut this year increased from one to four [31]. - **US Dollar Index Movement**: The US dollar index first declined and then rose last week, up 0.40% to 104.15 as of March 21 [33]. - **US TIPS Yield Movement**: The US 10 - year TIPS yield decreased by 9bp to 1.92% last week [36]. - **International Important Event Tracking**: Tensions in the Middle East increased as Israel launched air strikes on Gaza and Lebanon. The US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine issue, and the Trump administration hopes to reach a cease - fire agreement by April 20 [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market risk aversion and interest rate cut expectations resonated, causing gold prices to reach new highs last week. On March 21, the Shanghai Gold main futures price rose 1.73% to 706.96 yuan/gram, the COMEX gold main futures price rose 1.16% to 3028.20 US dollars/ounce, the gold T+D spot price rose 1.92% to 706.08 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price rose 1.31% to 3022.79 US dollars/ounce. The weakening of the US dollar index and US stocks, the dovish signal from the Fed's March FOMC meeting, and geopolitical uncertainties all supported the gold price. However, the rebound of the US dollar on Friday and some long - position profit - taking led to a decline in the gold price. Overall, the gold price rose significantly last week [1]. - This week (the week of March 24), the gold price may face short - term correction pressure. The better - than - expected US existing home sales data, the rebound of the US dollar index, the possible rebound of the US stocks, and the easing of concerns about tariff risks may restrict the inflow of funds into the gold market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On March 21, the Shanghai Gold main futures price closed at 706.96 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan/gram from March 14; the COMEX gold main futures price closed at 3028.20 US dollars/ounce, up 34.60 US dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price closed at 706.08 yuan/gram, up 13.28 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 3022.79 US dollars/ounce, up 39.00 US dollars/ounce [3]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai Gold main futures was 1.83%, with a trading volume of 83.38 million and an open interest of 20.73 million; the COMEX gold main futures had a cumulative increase of 0.90%, a trading volume of 77.73 million, and an open interest of 24.28 million. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 1.85%, a trading volume of 21.35 million, and an open interest of 18.53 million; the London gold spot had a cumulative increase of 1.31% [4]. 1.2 Gold Basis - On March 21, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 11.80 US dollars/ounce, slightly up 0.15 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis turned positive to 0.94 yuan/gram, up 1.44 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [6]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - On March 21, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 3.68 yuan/gram, continuing to rise from - 0.20 yuan/gram of the previous Friday. The rebound of the US dollar on Friday suppressed the foreign - market gold price, resulting in a smaller increase in the foreign - market price than the domestic - market price. The gold - oil ratio remained the same as the previous week, the gold - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [9]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased significantly last week. As of March 21, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 930.51 tons, an increase of 24.10 tons from the previous Friday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D increased significantly, with a total trading volume of 213,494 kilograms, up 14.43% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of March 18, the long - position holdings of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased significantly, while the short - position holdings remained basically the same, leading to a continuous increase in the net long - position. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to increase, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 600 kilograms to 15,675 kilograms [15]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased slightly week - on - week; the number of JOLTS job openings in January continued to decline; the CPI and PPI year - on - year in January dropped significantly; the ISM services PMI in February rebounded while the manufacturing PMI declined; the unemployment rate in February rebounded; the number of new non - farm payrolls in February increased slightly; the Michigan consumer confidence index in March continued to decline significantly; the durable goods orders in January increased significantly month - on - month; the core PCE year - on - year in January declined [21][23][26][27]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On March 20, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The Fed will slow down the balance - sheet reduction from April, reducing the monthly redemption cap of US Treasury bonds from 25 billion US dollars to 5 billion US dollars. The updated dot - plot shows that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2025, but the number of people who expect no rate cut this year increased from one to four, and the number of people who expect two rate cuts decreased by one to nine. The Fed also lowered the US economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%, raised the unemployment rate forecast to 4.4%, and raised the core PCE inflation forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% [31]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The US dollar index first declined and then rose last week, with a slight overall increase. The Fed's statement about the increased uncertainty of the US economic outlook led to a decline in the US dollar index at the beginning of the week. However, concerns about tariff issues and the correction of the German and Hong Kong stock markets pushed up the US dollar index in the second half of the week. As of March 21, the US dollar index rebounded 0.40% to 104.15 compared with the previous Friday [33]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The yield of the 10 - year US TIPS declined significantly last week. The Fed's decision to keep the policy rate unchanged and the signal of increased economic uncertainty boosted market expectations of interest rate cuts, and concerns about the US economic downturn led to a significant decline in the 10 - year US TIPS yield. As of March 21, the yield of the 10 - year US TIPS declined 9bp to 1.92% [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The risk in the Middle East increased. On March 18, the Israeli military launched a large - scale air strike on Gaza, and on March 22, Israel also carried out an air strike on southern Lebanon, intensifying the geopolitical risk in the Middle East. In the Russia - Ukraine situation, the US and Russia will hold talks on Monday, and the Trump administration hopes to reach a cease - fire agreement before April 20 [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, indicating that the Federal Reserve will likely continue to observe economic conditions before making any rate changes [3][6]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% reflects ongoing concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's policies [3][6]. - Economic growth forecasts for the U.S. have been downgraded, with the 2025 growth rate revised from 2.1% to 1.7%, and the unemployment rate slightly increased to 4.4% [3][6]. - The report highlights that inflation expectations have risen, with core PCE inflation projected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%, indicating potential upward pressure on prices due to tariffs and other policies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report notes that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a steady pace, but recent data suggests a weakening trend, with the S&P 500 index experiencing a nearly 10% decline [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve's focus on inflation risks has intensified, leading to a more cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with expectations for only one rate cut this year [3][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report discusses the impact of recent tariff policies on inflation, suggesting that while short-term inflation risks may rise, the Federal Reserve views these as temporary shocks [3][6]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a shift in expectations, with an increase in the number of members anticipating no rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns over inflation [3][6]. Future Projections - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement 2-3 rate cuts in the second half of the year, contingent on economic data and inflation trends [3][6]. - It emphasizes that the current high-interest rate environment, coupled with contractionary policies, may increase economic downward pressure, necessitating a reassessment of monetary policy [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) with no immediate changes expected in the short term [4][5]. Core Insights - The March LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the one-year rate and 3.60% for the five-year rate, aligning with market expectations due to stable policy rates [4][5]. - The report suggests that the second quarter may present a window for potential interest rate cuts, influenced by the current economic conditions and government policies [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of directing credit towards key sectors of the economy, indicating that structural monetary policy tools may see rate adjustments without replacing overall policy rate cuts [6][8]. Summary by Sections LPR Pricing - The LPR pricing for March remained stable, reflecting the unchanged policy rates and the impact of various economic factors, including a decline in commercial banks' net interest margins [5][6]. - The report highlights that the necessity for rate cuts is not urgent due to strong economic growth momentum and increasing consumption and investment rates [5][6]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates that the LPR may be adjusted downwards in the second quarter, particularly for the five-year rate, to support the real estate market [6][8]. - It is noted that the LPR may be adjusted independently of the policy rate, with potential for a greater reduction in LPR compared to the policy rate cuts [6][8]. Economic Context - The report discusses the influence of external economic conditions and domestic price trends on monetary policy decisions, suggesting that the central bank will maintain a moderately accommodative stance [6][8]. - The government work report indicates plans for structural monetary policy adjustments to support key economic areas, including agriculture and technology [6][8].