Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's internal "hawkish" stance is intensifying, with a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts as inflation remains above target levels[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has dropped below 50%, currently at 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining rates has risen to 55.6%[9] - The U.S. government shutdown lasting over 43 days has created a data void, impacting the Fed's assessment of economic conditions[9] Group 2: Economic Data - The U.S. ADP private sector employment decreased by 45,000 jobs in October, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market[14] - The UK’s Q3 GDP grew by 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.0% in September[20] - Japan's PPI growth slowed to 2.66% year-on-year in October, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures[21] Group 3: Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.14% amid market adjustments following the end of the government shutdown[30] - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 2.6 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting rising expectations for interest rate hikes[30] - The S&P 500 index saw a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 18.59%[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, dominated by the stock - bond seesaw effect. The weak financial and macro data in October confirmed the economic downward expectation in Q4, but the market reaction was flat, and the bond market sentiment was mainly driven by the stock market, being more sensitive to stock market rises. The stock market first adjusted, then rose and fell back, and declined overall last week, leading to bond market fluctuations with only a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term bond yields rose slightly as the tax period approached, and the yield curve continued to flatten [3]. - This week (the week of November 17), the bond market will continue the oscillating pattern. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut in the short term has cooled, and the expectation of an interest rate cut is still weak. With the macro data in a vacuum period, the bond market will continue to oscillate, and stock market fluctuations will continue to dominate market sentiment. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may be implemented soon, but since the market has priced them fully, they may cause market fluctuations in the short term but with limited amplitude. Overall, with multiple factors such as weak fundamentals, low expectation of loose policies, the central bank's care for the capital market, the stock market entering an oscillating rest period, and the unimplemented new regulations on public fund redemption fees, the bond market is unlikely to break the deadlock and will probably continue the narrow - range oscillating pattern [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was narrowly fluctuating last week, with long - term bond yields slightly declining. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.06% in the whole week. On Friday, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.02bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.59bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [4]. - On November 10, affected by the warming of October inflation data, the bond market was weakly oscillating in the morning, but the long - term bonds recovered in the afternoon as the stock market fell, while short - term bonds were still weak due to tightened capital. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.03bp, and most of the Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.01% [4]. - On November 11, the bond market was generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield slightly decreasing by 0.20bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 12, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report mentioned stabilizing growth again and deleted the "anti - arbitrage" statement. The market's loose expectation remained, driving the bond market to be generally warming and oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreasing by 0.48bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed up, with the 10 - year main contract rising 0.02% [4]. - On November 13, the stock market hit a new high, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The bond market generally weakened. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.55bp, and all Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors closed down, with the 10 - year main contract falling 0.10% [4]. - On November 14, the capital tightened marginally and the stock market declined. The bond market was narrowly oscillating. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly rose, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 0.14bp, and the closing prices of Treasury bond futures main contracts of all tenors were mixed, with the 10 - year main contract remaining flat [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 100 interest - rate bonds were issued, 43 more than the previous week, with a issuance volume of 7269 billion, an increase of 2129 billion compared with the previous week, and a net financing amount of 3903 billion, an increase of 1020 billion compared with the previous week. In terms of bond types, the issuance volumes of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds increased month - on - month; the net financing amounts of Treasury bonds and local government bonds increased month - on - month, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased month - on - month [10]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. Six Treasury bonds were issued, two of which were savings Treasury bonds, and the average subscription multiple of the remaining Treasury bonds was 3.39 times. Twenty - one policy - financial bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 3.83 times, and 73 local government bonds were issued with an average subscription multiple of 20.09 times [14]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the policies to stabilize growth drove up entrusted loans, and M1 continued to grow rapidly. In October 2025, new RMB loans were 220 billion, 280 billion less year - on - year; new social financing scale was 815 billion, 597 billion less year - on - year. At the end of October, M2 increased 8.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month; M1 increased 6.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point lower than at the end of last month [14]. - In October, the year - on - year growth of RMB loans decreased due to weak domestic demand, declining external demand, and the continuous downward pull of implicit debt replacement on new medium - and long - term corporate loans. The year - on - year growth of social financing continued to decline, mainly affected by the significant year - on - year decrease in government bond financing and RMB loans to the real economy. Due to the higher base in the same period last year, the growth rate of M2 declined at the end of October but remained at a relatively fast level. The growth rate of M1 declined as the low - base effect weakened, but it still grew rapidly due to the increase in current deposits of urban investment platform enterprises during debt replacement and the increase in current deposits of small and medium - sized enterprises [14]. - The macro data in October continued to decline. The year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in October was 4.9%, down from 6.5% previously; the cumulative year - on - year actual growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in the first 10 months was 6.1%, compared with 5.8% in the whole year of 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 2.9%, down from 3.0% previously; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the first 10 months was 4.3%, compared with 3.5% in the whole year of 2024. From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, compared with a decline of 0.5% previously and a growth of 3.2% in the whole year of 2024 [14]. - The industrial production growth rate declined rapidly in October due to different working days compared with last year, negative export growth, weak domestic consumption and investment momentum, and the weakening of the pulling effect of policies to boost domestic demand. The year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods continued to decline in October mainly because the effect of the subsidy policy for trade - in weakened, the base in the same period last year increased, and the accelerated decline of the real - estate market dragged down real - estate - related consumption. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to October was - 1.7%, with negative cumulative year - on - year values for two consecutive months, mainly due to the slowdown of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real - estate investment. Overall, affected by weak external demand, weakening domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time needed for policies to stabilize growth to take effect, the macro - economic operation in October continued the weakening trend since Q3 [15]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, the high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed performance. The blast furnace operating rate and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants both declined slightly, while the daily average molten iron output increased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week. On the demand side, the BDI index continued to rise, and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) also continued to increase. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased slightly. In terms of prices, the pork price declined slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including the prices of rebar, copper, and crude oil [16]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net injection of funds through open - market operations last week was 626.2 billion. The R007 and DR007 both increased; the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock commercial banks increased; the direct discount rates of state - owned and joint - stock banks of all tenors decreased slightly; the trading volume of pledged repurchase decreased slightly; the leverage ratio in the inter - bank market fluctuated and decreased slightly [26][29][32].

Economic Overview - In October, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a significant decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth for the first ten months of 2025 was 6.1%, compared to 5.8% for the entire year of 2024[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly down from 3.0% in the previous month[1] Industrial Production - The mining and manufacturing sectors saw a notable decline in growth rates, with year-on-year increases of 4.5% and 4.9%, down 1.9 and 2.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month[4] - The export delivery value for large-scale industrial enterprises fell by 2.1% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 5.9 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest growth rate of the year[5] Consumer Trends - The retail sales growth for household appliances, furniture, and automobiles saw declines of 14.6%, 9.6%, and 6.6% respectively, with significant drops of 17.9, 6.6, and 8.2 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry surged by 37.6% year-on-year, an increase of 27.9 percentage points from the previous value, driven by rising international gold prices[9] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment for January to October showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a drop of 1.2 percentage points from the previous value, marking two consecutive months of negative growth[10] - Real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous value, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the housing market[13] Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance growth-stabilizing policies before the end of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand and releasing consumption potential[2] - The anticipated implementation of new fiscal and monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, aims to counteract the impacts of slowing external demand[2]

Loan and Financing Trends - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion, reflecting weak consumer demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[1][4] - The total social financing scale in October was 815 billion, down 597 billion year-on-year, primarily due to reduced government bond financing and loans directed at the real economy[1][7] - The growth rate of broad money supply (M2) was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while narrow money supply (M1) grew at 6.2%, down 1.0 percentage points[1][8][9] Economic Influences - Weak domestic demand and declining external demand have suppressed credit demand from both enterprises and residents, contributing to the overall decrease in new loans[2][4] - The October PMI for manufacturing showed unexpected declines, further inhibiting credit demand from real enterprises[5][6] - The implementation of new policy financial tools has yet to significantly impact the demand for medium to long-term loans from enterprises[5][6] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, potentially implementing new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end to stimulate internal demand[3][12] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to direct financial resources towards key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and small and micro enterprises[13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 11, the central bank significantly increased net investment, leading to a balanced capital market. The bond market showed a generally warm and volatile trend, while the convertible bond market's major indices declined collectively, with most individual convertible bonds falling. The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The central bank's Q3 2025 monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various tools to keep social financing conditions relatively loose, and improve the monetary policy framework [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission supported more private investment projects to issue infrastructure REITs. As of October 29, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds were fully disbursed. 18 private investment projects were recommended to the CSRC, 14 of which were listed, with a total fund issuance of nearly 30 billion yuan. 105 infrastructure REITs projects were recommended in total, 83 of which were listed, covering 10 industries and 18 asset types, with a total fund issuance of 207 billion yuan, expected to drive new project investment of over 1 trillion yuan [4]. - On November 11, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Zheng Shanjie, held a private enterprise symposium to listen to suggestions on service industry development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [5]. 3.1.2 International News - As of October 25, the number of private - sector jobs in the US decreased by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the number of initial unemployment claims remained low [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On November 11, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and the increase in international natural gas prices widened. WTI December crude oil futures rose 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, Brent January crude oil futures rose 1.72% to $65.16 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.28% to $4,133.50 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 3.43% to $4.525 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On November 11, the central bank conducted 403.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 117.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 286.3 billion yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - On November 11, the central bank's net investment increased significantly, and the capital market became balanced. DR001 rose 2.52bp to 1.509%, and DR007 rose 1.33bp to 1.513% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - On November 11, the bond market was generally warm and volatile. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 decreased by 0.10bp to 1.8040%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 increased by 0.10bp to 1.8750% [14]. - Several bonds were tendered on November 11, including 25Guokai02 (Increment 19), 25Guokai18 (Increment 6), etc., with different issuance scales, winning yields, full - field multiples, and marginal multiples [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On November 11, the trading price of one industrial bond, "20 Vanke 08", deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 17% [15]. - There were multiple credit bond events, such as Shenzhen Metro Group providing up to 1.666 billion yuan in loans to Vanke, and some companies' bond redemption and credit rating adjustment announcements [18]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On November 11, the A - share market was weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index falling 0.39%, 1.03%, and 1.40% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 2.01 trillion yuan. The convertible bond market followed the equity market down, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indices falling 0.16%, 0.15%, and 0.16% respectively, and a trading volume of 66.308 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.876 billion yuan from the previous trading day [19]. - Among individual convertible bonds, 168 rose, 225 fell, and 10 remained flat. Dongshi Convertible Bond continued to reach the daily limit of 20%, while Hangyu Convertible Bond fell by more than 3% [19]. - On November 11, Huate Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for downward revision of the conversion price, and Lizhong Convertible Bond and Chutian Convertible Bond announced that they might meet the early redemption conditions [23]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The US bond market was closed on November 11 due to Veterans Day [22]. - On November 11, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally decreased. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield decreased by 1bp to 2.66%, and France, Italy, Spain, and the UK's yields decreased by 2bp, 1bp, 2bp, and 8bp respectively [23][24]. - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US - dollar bonds as of the close on November 11 showed different increases and decreases among various bonds [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and market concerns about a liquidity crisis in the US caused the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last week, the gold price was pressured by the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis. Overall, the gold price will continue to maintain a range - bound trend this week, as the long - term upward logic of the gold price remains unchanged, but there is currently a lack of clear upward factors [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Market Review - **1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends** - Last Friday (November 7), the prices of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold futures, as well as London gold and gold T + D spot, all declined compared to the previous Friday. The cumulative price changes of different gold varieties are shown in Table 1, with the highest and lowest prices also presented [5][6]. - **1.2 Gold Basis** - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars per ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars per ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan per gram, a drop of 1.92 yuan per gram from the previous Friday [8]. - **1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread** - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 18.76 yuan per gram, a significant increase from - 19.46 yuan per gram the previous Friday. The gold - to - oil ratio increased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio decreased slightly, and the gold - to - copper ratio increased significantly [10]. - **1.4 Position Analysis** - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. The trading volume of domestic gold T + D continued to decrease. In terms of futures positions, as of September 23, the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions both increased, with the net long positions rising slightly. The inventory of COMEX gold futures decreased, while the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures increased [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **2.1 Important Economic Data** - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October continued to contract for eight consecutive months. The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The US ISM services PMI in October reached an eight - month high, and the price - payment index reached a three - year high. The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but salary growth remained stagnant [17][18][19]. - **2.2 Fed Policy Tracking** - Last week, Fed officials' differences over whether to continue cutting interest rates in December intensified. Different Fed officials expressed different views on interest - rate policies, inflation, and employment [29][30]. - **2.3 US Dollar Index Trend** - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight overall decline. As of last Friday, it decreased by 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. - **2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend** - Last week, the yield of the 10 - year US TIPS fluctuated slightly upward. As of last Friday, it increased by 2bp to 1.83% [33]. - **2.5 International Important Event Tracking** - Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched large - scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Different parties have different statements regarding these attacks [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - ADP employment data exceeded expectations and the market worried about a liquidity crisis in the US, causing the gold price to continue its volatile adjustment. Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.72% to 921.92 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 1.20% to 4077.20 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price declined 1.53% to 921.02 yuan/gram, and the London gold price decreased 2.65% to 4002.69 US dollars/ounce. The unexpectedly high ADP employment data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, pressuring the gold price. The significant rise in the US SOFR rate on October 31, announced last Monday, under the backdrop of the government shutdown and tightening bank liquidity, also triggered concerns about a liquidity crisis, putting downward pressure on the gold price. However, the subsequent sharp decline in the SOFR rate alleviated market concerns and pushed the gold price to rebound. Overall, the gold price continued its volatile adjustment last week due to the cooling of interest rate cut expectations and concerns about a liquidity crisis [3]. - This week (the week of November 10), the gold price will continue to fluctuate within a range. The US Senate planned to hold a trial vote on a new plan to end the government shutdown last Sunday (November 9), and the government is expected to resume work this week, which will ease market risk aversion and have a certain negative impact on the gold price. However, if the government shutdown ends, multiple private - sector economic indicators will be released this week, and these data are expected to remain weak, which will increase the market's expectation of interest rate cuts and be beneficial to gold. Although the long - term upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, there are currently no clear upward factors. Given various uncertainties, the gold price is expected to continue its range - bound fluctuation this week [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements - Last Friday (November 7), the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 921.26 yuan/gram, down 0.66 yuan/gram from the previous Friday. The COMEX gold futures price closed at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, continuing to decline by 5.60 US dollars/ounce. In the spot market, the gold T+D price closed at 917.64 yuan/gram, down 3.38 yuan/gram, and the London gold price closed at 4000.29 US dollars/ounce, down 2.40 US dollars/ounce [5]. - The trading data shows that the cumulative increase of the Shanghai gold futures was 0.32%, with a trading volume of 152 million and an open interest of 13.67 million, a decrease of 20,231. The COMEX gold futures had a cumulative increase of 0.28%, a trading volume of 102 million, an open interest of 31.15 million, and a decrease of 23,438. The gold T+D spot had a cumulative increase of 0.08%, a trading volume of 26.92 million, an open interest of 25.45 million, and an increase of 6,762. The London gold spot had a cumulative decrease of 0.06% [6]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 1.10 US dollars/ounce, a significant drop of 16.90 US dollars/ounce from the previous Friday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.38 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.92 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Last week, the decline of the foreign - market gold price was smaller than that of the domestic - market gold price. The gold domestic - foreign price difference on Friday was - 18.76 yuan/gram, a significant recovery from - 19.46 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of the crude oil price was greater than that of gold, and the gold - oil ratio increased slightly. The silver price continued to rise slightly while the gold price continued to fall, causing the gold - silver ratio to decline slightly. Due to the government shutdown, the spread between the US SOFR rate and the overnight repo rate soared, triggering concerns about US dollar liquidity, reducing market risk appetite, and causing the copper price to fall more sharply than gold, leading to a significant increase in the gold - copper ratio [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In the spot market, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 1042.06 tons, a slight increase of 2.86 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D continued to decrease, with a total of 269,158 kilograms last week, a 6.29% decrease from the previous week. - In the futures market, as of September 23 (the latest available data), both the long and short positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions increased, but the increase in short positions was less than that of long positions, resulting in a slight increase in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease last week, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 1800 kilograms to 89,616 kilograms [14]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October. The index was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. Among the important sub - indices, the new orders index was 49.4, higher than the previous value of 48.9. The new orders in October decreased for the second consecutive month, but the decline rate slowed down. The production index dropped 2.8 points to 48.2, indicating output contraction in two of the past three months. The employment index was 46.0, higher than the previous value of 45.3 but still in the contraction range, contracting for the ninth consecutive month. The price - paid index was 58.0, the lowest level since the beginning of this year, far lower than the expected 62.5 and the previous value of 61.9, indicating a continued reduction in inflation pressure. The supplier delivery index rose to a four - month high, indicating a longer delivery cycle. The manufacturer's inventory decreased by the largest margin in a year, and the customer inventory level remained low, suggesting that future orders may increase, supporting production activities [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown is about to break the record. The current shutdown, which started on October 1, is likely to become the longest in US history. However, there are initial signs of a thaw in Congress, and senior lawmakers from both parties are sending cautious and optimistic signals, which eases market concerns about the US economic and political stability [18]. - The US ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high in October, and the price - paid index reached a three - year high. The index was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50.0. The new orders index jumped 5.8 points to 56.2, reaching a one - year high. Along with the rebound in demand, inflation pressure became more obvious, and the input price index rose to 70.0, the highest in three years, indicating that the service industry is under greater pressure from US import tariffs. The employment situation is stabilizing, and the employment index rose to a five - month high of 48.2. Although still below 50, indicating a continued decline in employment, the decline rate has slowed down. The inventory index only contracted slightly in October, and more service companies believe their inventory levels are still high relative to business activities [19]. - The US "small non - farm" ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, exceeding expectations, but wage growth remained stagnant. The increase was mainly driven by the service industry, which added 32,000 jobs, and the commodity production industry, which added 9,000 jobs. The recruitment situation rebounded from two consecutive months of weakness, but the rebound was not widespread, mainly supported by education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and public utilities [19][20]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Last week, the divergence among Fed officials on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December increased. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, who has a vote this year, said the government shutdown led to the lack of key inflation data, making him cautious about further rate cuts. Cleveland Fed President Mester, who will have a vote next year, said inflation is a more urgent concern than a weak labor market. She believes the current interest rate setting is "almost non - restrictive" and advocates that monetary policy should continue to put pressure on inflation. New York Fed President Williams said the era of low interest rates continues, and the neutral interest rate is estimated to be around 1%. Fed Governor Barr, who was previously the vice - chair for supervision, said the Fed must focus on "ensuring the robustness of the employment market" [29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Movement - The US dollar index first rose and then fell last week, showing a slight overall decline. The rebound of the October US ISM services PMI index and the significant increase in the October ADP employment number, both exceeding market expectations, drove the dollar index up. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, market risk sentiment cooled, causing the dollar index to decline again. As of last Friday, the dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Movement - The US 10 - year TIPS yield increased slightly last week. Fed officials' remarks generally strengthened Powell's hawkish view that "a December rate cut is not certain", and the rebound in the October ADP employment number showed positive signs in the labor market, leading to a slight increase in the US 10 - year TIPS yield. As of last Friday, the yield rose 2bp to 1.83% [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Russian forces continuously attacked the Ukrainian power system. Last Saturday (November 8), Russia launched a large - scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine, damaging large - scale energy facilities in three regions. Zelensky said Russia has always targeted the power system to damage heating equipment and called for corresponding sanctions. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the attacks were in response to Kiev's attacks on Russian territory [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market had a weak and volatile performance with a flattened and upward - shifted yield curve. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, leading to some profit - taking. Rumors about the new public bond fund redemption fee rules and the stock market's rebound also affected the bond market. The short - end yield increased more than the long - end, narrowing the term spread [3][4]. - This week (the week of November 10), the bond market is expected to have a warm - biased and volatile performance. The increasing economic downward pressure in the fourth quarter, reduced supply pressure, and institutional pre - emptive allocation support bond - buying. However, the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is not high, and the stock market's resilience and the unannounced new public redemption fee rules limit the bond - buying space. The release of October's financial and economic data may affect the bond market's volatility direction, and it is expected that the year - on - year growth rates of major economic indicators in October may decline compared to September, supporting the bond market's warm - biased volatility [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market adjusted last week, with the long - term bond yield rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures' main contract fell 0.20% cumulatively. On November 8, the 10 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.88bp, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 2.19bp compared to the previous Friday, narrowing the term spread [4]. - From November 3 to 7, the bond market showed different trends each day. On November 4, the central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and on November 6 and 7, rumors about the new redemption fee rules affected the bond market [4]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 57 interest - rate bonds were issued, 53 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 514 billion yuan, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 288.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of treasury bonds increased, while those of local government bonds and policy - bank financial bonds decreased [11]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.53, 3.77, and 21.98 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - In October, the year - on - year export growth rate turned negative. The export value decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, 9.4 percentage points lower than in September. The import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year, 6.4 percentage points lower than in September [13]. - In October, the CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.2%. The PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The CPI's positive turn was due to factors such as rising vegetable and service prices, and the PPI's narrowing decline was related to improved industry supply - demand and rising commodity prices [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, most high - frequency production - end data increased, including the blast furnace operating rate, semi - steel tire operating rate, and petroleum asphalt plant operating rate. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline [15]. - In terms of demand, the BDI index and the CCFI increased, while the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. In terms of prices, pork prices rose, and most commodity prices fell [15]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan from the open market last week through reverse repurchase operations [26]. - Last week, R007 and DR007 both decreased, the joint - stock bank inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate continued to decline, the national - share direct discount rate for each term increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly, and the inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased overall [27][28].

Policy Trends - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted 40 days, breaking the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, but an agreement to end the shutdown is expected soon[10] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, with expectations for a potential rate cut in December[8] Economic Data - The U.S. ADP employment report for October showed an increase of 42,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 30,000, indicating a stabilization in the labor market[14] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October was 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, marking the fastest expansion in eight months[12][13] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.08% over the week, with a year-to-date increase of 19.27%[4] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 1.63% for the week, with a year-to-date increase of 14.40%[4] Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was stable at 4.11%, while the 10-year TIPS yield rose by 2 basis points to 1.83%[20] - The 10-year yields for U.K., German, and French bonds all increased, reflecting a general upward trend in European bond markets[26]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the convertible bond market followed the equity market with continued volatile upward movement, and the valuation slightly decreased. The Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index outperformed the Wind All A by 0.27 pcts. The Wind Convertible Bond Double - Low Index led the sub - indices with a 1.43% increase. The Convertible Bond ETF had a net redemption of 10.02 billion yuan. - In the short term, the convertible bond market will follow the equity market with a structural theme - based market due to the US government shutdown and year - end profit - taking sentiment. However, the supply - demand imbalance in the convertible bond market will support the valuation, and the double - low and dumbbell strategies are advantageous. Defensive positions can be in the large - financial and coal sectors, while offensive positions can be in new energy and low - valuation technology convertible bonds. - In the primary market, Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond were issued, Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was listed, and several bonds were redeemed early or expired and delisted. As of last Friday, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 576.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 157.242 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. Five bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4.2 billion yuan, and seven bonds passed the issuance review committee, totaling 6.286 billion yuan [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Policy Tracking - On November 4, five departments including the National Health Commission issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting and Regulating the Application and Development of 'Artificial Intelligence + Healthcare'". By 2027, key applications of AI in healthcare will be widely used, and high - value application scenarios will be created to drive the high - quality development of the health industry [2][4]. Secondary Market - **Equity Market**: Last week, major equity market indices fluctuated strongly. Overseas, the US government shutdown affected market risk appetite. Domestically, CPI and PPI data sent positive signals, and the market focused on performance and anti - involution policies. High - position sectors retreated, and dividend assets strengthened, with coal, chemical, and banking sectors leading the gains [3]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: - The convertible bond market indices followed the equity market and rose. The average daily trading volume was 69.904 billion yuan, an increase of 3.231 billion yuan from the previous week. The Convertible Bond ETF had a net redemption of 10.02 billion yuan [6]. - Structurally, the large - cap style in the convertible bond market strengthened, and the double - low convertible bonds performed well. The high - price and small - cap indices underperformed. In terms of historical quantiles, the conversion value quantile decreased, while the convertible bond price quantile increased, driving up the conversion premium rate. The trading activity declined [7]. - By industry, most convertible bonds in various industries rose. Steel industry convertible bonds led with an average increase of over 2%, while computer and automobile industry convertible bonds declined. The overall valuation of convertible bonds slightly increased, and the valuation quantiles of different industries changed differently [8]. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds rose. Bonds in the power grid and solid - state battery sectors led the gains, while some bonds with poor performance in the third quarter declined significantly [10]. - In terms of price and valuation, the arithmetic average and median of convertible bond prices changed slightly. The arithmetic average and median of the conversion premium rate and pure - bond premium rate decreased [20]. Primary Market - **New Issues and Listings**: Qizhong Convertible Bond and Zhuomei Convertible Bond were issued, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 was listed with strong performance. Several bonds were redeemed early or expired and delisted. As of November 7, the convertible bond market's outstanding scale was 576.651 billion yuan, a decrease of 157.242 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and 4.623 billion yuan from the previous week [28]. - **Conversion and Redemption**: Eight convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5%, one more than the previous week. Several bonds announced early redemption, and some bonds triggered conversion due to negative conversion premium rates [30]. - **Issuance Progress**: Shangtai Technology and Jinpan Technology's convertible bond issuance plans passed the exchange review. As of last Friday, five bonds were approved by the CSRC to be issued, totaling 4.2 billion yuan, and seven bonds passed the issuance review committee, totaling 6.286 billion yuan [33][34]. - **Clause Tracking**: No convertible bond announced a downward revision of the conversion price, and one bond announced early redemption. Several bonds proposed or were about to trigger a downward revision of the conversion price, and many bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [34].