Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in April, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to May[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, up from 5.1% in April, with a cumulative growth of 5.0% from January to May[1] - Fixed asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, with May's investment growth at 2.7%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points from April[1][2] Industrial Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.2% in May, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to external trade environment changes affecting export trade[4] - Despite a slowdown in export delivery value growth to 0.6% in May, the industrial added value remained around 6.0% due to domestic demand policies and technological innovation[5] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6%, indicating strong support for overall industrial performance[5] Consumer Behavior - The rapid growth in retail sales was driven by the "old-for-new" policy for durable goods, with significant increases in categories like home appliances (53.0% growth) and communication equipment (33.0% growth) in May[8] - Automotive retail sales saw a rebound with a 13.6% increase, although the retail sales growth was only 1.1%, indicating pricing pressures in the market[8][9] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment from January to May showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.5%, with equipment investment growing by 17.3%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth[10] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a cumulative drop of 10.7% from January to May, and a monthly decline of 12.4% in May, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[11] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6% year-on-year from January to May, but May's growth slowed to 5.1% due to weak project funding and execution[12] Future Outlook - The economic outlook suggests continued challenges from external trade dynamics, with expectations of further monetary easing and fiscal measures to support growth in the second half of the year[3][13] - The real estate market's stabilization is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and investment, with anticipated support measures to enhance housing market recovery[11][14]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion[1] - The month saw a seasonal increase of 340 billion in loans compared to the previous month, but the year-on-year decline indicates a weakening in loan growth[3] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[3][4] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 2.29 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth[2][6] - Government bond financing was a significant contributor, with a year-on-year increase of 236.7 billion in May, driven by higher net financing of treasury and special bonds[6] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 121.1 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[6] Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of May, M2 growth was 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in deposit creation[7][8] - M1 growth accelerated to 2.3%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, although it remains low, reflecting weak consumer spending and investment[8] - The increase in fiscal deposits due to large-scale government bond issuance has contributed to a temporary monetary contraction effect[7] Future Outlook - The financial support for the real economy is expected to strengthen further, with projections for continued year-on-year growth in social financing in June[2][9] - The central bank is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year[9]

5 月物价、贸易数据出炉；资金面持续宽松，银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一 【内容摘要】6 月 9 日，资金面持续宽松；银行间主要利率债收益率涨跌不一；转债市场主要 指数集体收涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国 债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行】当地时间 6 月 9 日下午，中美经贸磋商 机制首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。国务院副总理何立峰与美国有关方面举行会谈。路透社、 天空新闻频道等英国媒体指出，中美新一轮会谈引起各界高度关注，双方开展面对面对话将有 助于加强两国经贸关系，深化相互理解信任。 【5 月 CPI 继续低位运行，PPI 同比降幅有所扩大】国家统计局 6 月 9 日发布的数据显示， 2025 年 5 月，CPI 同比下降 0.1%，上月为下降 0.1%，1-5 月 CPI 累计同比下降 0.1%；5 月 PPI 同比下降 3.3%，上月为下降 2.7%，1-5 月 PPI 累计同比下降 2.6%。 【5 月对美出口降幅扩大，整体出口保持较强韧性】海关总署 6 月 9 日发布数据显示，以美元 计价， ...

Key Points - The bond market is showing overall strength with a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [2][4] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has exceeded 400 billion yuan, with 216 bonds issued since May 7 [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.6 billion USD to 328.53 billion USD at the end of May [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 50 billion yuan in savings bonds with fixed interest rates [6] - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 300 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in stable asset allocation [6] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, slightly above expectations, but previous months' data were significantly revised down [7] - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude oil up 6.23% for the week [8] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 135 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 151.6 billion yuan [10] - The bond market is experiencing a strong performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds declining to 1.6525% [14] - The secondary market for credit bonds showed significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing over 10% price changes [16] - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with a total trading volume of 69.546 billion yuan [18] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing to 4.51% [20] - Major European economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down to 2.56% [23]

Export Performance - In May 2025, China's export value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points compared to April[1] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, significantly dragging down overall export growth[1][3] - The high base effect from the previous year, where exports grew by 7.4% in May 2024, also contributed to the slowdown in May 2025[4] Import Trends - In May 2025, China's import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 3.2 percentage points from April[6] - Imports from the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 18.1%, with the drop expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, directly impacting overall import growth by 1.1 percentage points[6] - The decline in import demand was also influenced by the overall slowdown in exports and the negative impact of the trade war on domestic investment and consumer confidence[5][6] Market Dynamics - The "export rush" effect towards the U.S. is expected to continue in June, potentially maintaining positive year-on-year growth in exports, although the growth rate may drop to around 1.0%[5] - The ongoing high tariff levels from the U.S. and the established trend of external demand slowing down suggest that export growth may face downward pressure in the second half of the year[5] - The diversification of export markets has shown progress, with exports to ASEAN growing by 14.8% and to the EU by 12.0% in May, indicating resilience amid external challenges[4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, consistent with the previous month, resulting in a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to May[1][4] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, remained below 1.0%, indicating a weak domestic price level primarily due to insufficient consumer demand[2][4] - The decline in CPI was influenced by a 6.1% year-on-year drop in energy prices, which contributed approximately 0.47 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease[5][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.3% year-on-year in May, with the decline accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, reflecting weakened pricing momentum and increased drag from base effects[2][9] - Month-on-month, the PPI decreased by 0.4%, maintaining the same decline rate as the previous two months[2][9] - Key sectors such as coal, steel, and cement experienced price declines due to weak domestic demand and ample supply, contributing to the overall PPI decrease[8][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - CPI is expected to hover around 0% in June, while the PPI year-on-year decline is projected to remain at approximately -3.3%[3][12] - The government aims to implement macroeconomic policies to promote reasonable price recovery in the second half of the year, which may include fiscal measures to boost consumption and further interest rate cuts by the central bank[3][12] - The impact of external economic fluctuations on consumer confidence and potential downward pressure from "export to domestic" shifts will be critical to monitor[7][12]

债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移 ——利率债周报（2025.6.2-2025.6.8） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市延续暖势，收益率曲线陡峭化下移。上周（6 月 2 日当 周）海外关税政策不确定性延续，为债市提供支撑。同时，尽 管大量同业存单陆续到期，但央行首次提前公告买断式逆回购 操作，加之首次披露月度各项工具流动性投放情况，释放加强 预期管理信号，市场资金宽松预期进一步强化，对债市产生利 多影响。在此背景下，上周长债收益率整体下行。短端利率方 面，月初资金面均衡偏松，带动债市短端利率下行，且下行幅 度大于长端，收益率曲线趋于陡峭化。 本周（6 月 9 日当周）债市料延续偏强震荡。从基本面来看， 本周将陆续公布5月通胀、贸易以及金融数据。其中，5月CPI 和 PPI 同比仍处负值区间，反应居民消费信心不足，内需整体 疲弱，同时，受海外关税政策反复影响，外需整体走弱， 5 月 出口增速有所放缓，基本面对债市影响将偏利多。从资金面来 看，尽管本周逆回购与存单到期规模较大，但央行提前开展 1 万亿买断式逆回购操作予以对冲，释放"呵护"信号，资金面 有望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On June 4, the capital market remained loose, bullish sentiment rose, the bond market significantly recovered, and the main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend with most individual convertible bonds rising. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined, while the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - The central government plans to support 20 cities, including Beijing and Tianjin, in implementing urban renewal actions [3]. - As of June 4, the net repayment of urban investment bonds this year has exceeded 220 billion yuan, and the proportion of public - offering urban investment bonds with a valuation above 2.2% is only about 10%. Future focus on generating returns lies in 2 - 5 - year urban investment bonds with a rating below AA [3]. - Shanghai encourages enterprises to apply for infrastructure REITs reserve projects and supports various cooperation and expansion methods [4]. - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is considering introducing virtual asset derivatives trading for professional investors and will formulate risk management measures [4]. - The 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states' finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting supports deepening regional financial cooperation [5]. 3.1.2 International News - In May, the U.S. ISM Services PMI contracted for the first time in a year, with significant changes in various sub - indices, which may put pressure on the manufacturing industry in the future [6]. - The U.S. ADP employment increase in May dropped to 37,000, the lowest level since March 2023, far below expectations, and investors' expectations of future interest rate cuts have risen significantly [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On June 4, international crude oil futures prices turned down, and international natural gas prices fell. WTI July crude oil futures fell 0.88% to $62.85 per barrel, Brent August crude oil futures fell 1.17% to $64.86 per barrel, COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $3398.80 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.43% to $3.706 per ounce [9]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations On June 4, the central bank conducted 214.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered manner, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The same day, 215.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 600 million yuan [10]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates On June 4, the capital market remained loose. DR001 decreased by 0.03bp to 1.413%, and DR007 increased by 0.53bp to 1.555%. Various other interest rates also showed different changes [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest Rate Bonds - The yields of major active bonds of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds declined. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 decreased by 0.50bp to 1.6710%, and the yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond 250210 decreased by 0.60bp to 1.7110% [13][14]. - Information on bond issuance and bidding for various bonds on June 4, including the term, issuance scale, winning bid yield, and other indicators, is provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On June 4, 3 industrial bonds and 1 urban investment bond had a transaction price deviation of over 10%. For example, "H8 Longkong 05" dropped by over 52%, and "21 Jingcheng Investment Green Bond 01" dropped by over 24% [16][17]. - Multiple companies announced credit - related events, such as Shenzhen Longfor Holdings' new bond restructuring plan, and several companies' credit ratings were revoked [19]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On June 4, the three major A - share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.42%, 0.87%, and 1.11% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.49%, 0.40%, and 0.63% respectively [19][20]. - On June 4, Jianguang Convertible Bond announced that it is expected to trigger the condition for downward revision of the conversion price [22]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the U.S. bond market on June 4, the yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally declined. The 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yields both decreased by 9bp to 3.87% and 4.37% respectively. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread remained unchanged at 50bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread widened by 2bp to 96bp. The break - even inflation rate of 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury bonds (TIPS) decreased by 1bp to 2.31% [23][25][26]. - In the European bond market on June 4, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. For example, the yield of the 10 - year German government bond increased by 2bp to 2.52%, and the yield of the 10 - year UK government bond decreased by 4bp [27]. - Information on the daily price changes of Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on June 4 is provided, including the daily change, credit subject, bond balance, and other details [29].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit quality for the port industry, with expectations of steady growth in throughput and profitability for 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights - The port industry is expected to maintain low-speed growth in throughput due to stable economic operations and global trade demand, with supportive policies for expanding domestic demand in 2025 [3][14]. - The construction of smart ports and the increase in large-scale berths are anticipated to enhance overall service levels and operational efficiency in the port sector [3][29]. - The integration of port resources has largely been completed, forming a "one port per province" pattern along the coast, which is expected to further enhance collaborative effects among ports in 2025 [3][43]. - Port enterprises are projected to maintain stable profitability in 2025, supported by growth in throughput and expansion of non-port businesses [3][49]. - The debt scale of port enterprises is expected to increase slightly in 2025 due to significant investment needs in construction, smart upgrades, and green transformations [3][57]. - Overall debt repayment capacity remains strong, although some port enterprises may face short-term repayment pressures [3][61]. Industry Fundamentals - The port industry in China has evolved to its fifth generation, characterized by large seaports and a comprehensive logistics infrastructure, with a focus on green, low-carbon, and intelligent development [4][39]. - Ports play a crucial role in promoting local economic development and are likely to receive policy and financial support [7][14]. - The port industry is closely linked to macroeconomic conditions, with throughput growth highly correlated with economic performance and trade activity [14][17]. Policy Environment - Recent policies have focused on planning, construction, and promoting green and intelligent development in the port sector, encouraging integrated and specialized growth [8][9]. - Key policies include plans to enhance the functionality of international hub ports and promote the development of smart ports and waterways [8][9]. Financial Performance of Port Enterprises - Port enterprises have shown revenue and profit growth in 2024, with expectations of stable profitability in 2025 due to supportive economic policies [49][50]. - The overall debt scale of port enterprises has increased, with a debt structure primarily consisting of long-term debt [57][60]. - The cash flow situation indicates a slight decline in operating cash inflow, but overall financing channels remain open [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the port industry will continue to grow steadily, with throughput expected to reach 164 billion tons by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 2% to 3% [36][22]. - The construction of smart ports and the integration of digital technologies are expected to further enhance operational efficiency and service quality in the port sector [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the construction industry in 2025, with expectations of improved credit quality for construction enterprises, particularly state-owned and central enterprises [61][62]. Core Insights - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in demand in 2025 due to ongoing government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting infrastructure investment [4][61]. - The report highlights that the construction sector is heavily influenced by real estate and infrastructure investments, with a projected decline in new contract amounts in 2024 but a potential rebound in 2025 [5][6][61]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with state-owned enterprises gaining market share and increasing industry concentration, while private enterprises face greater challenges [15][18][62]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - In 2024, the construction industry in China experienced a decline in demand, with new contract amounts dropping by 5.21% year-on-year. However, 2025 is expected to see a recovery in housing demand due to supportive policies [4][5]. - The total output value of the construction industry in 2024 was 32.65 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.9%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [9]. Credit Quality of Construction Enterprises - The overall credit quality of construction enterprises slightly declined in 2024, but is expected to stabilize and improve in 2025, particularly for state-owned enterprises [21][61]. - The report notes that private construction enterprises, especially those focused on housing and decoration, may face credit quality risks due to the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [21][23]. Market Competition and Concentration - The construction market is characterized by high competition, with state-owned enterprises and large local enterprises gaining market share. The concentration of the industry is expected to increase further [15][18]. - In 2024, state-owned and state-controlled enterprises accounted for 43.11% of the total output value and 59.30% of the total contract amounts in the construction industry [18]. Financial Performance and Debt Levels - The report indicates that the financial performance of construction enterprises has been under pressure, with a decline in revenue and profit margins in 2024. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2025 due to increased government spending on infrastructure [39][61]. - The overall debt levels of construction enterprises are expected to remain stable, with a slight increase in the asset-liability ratio in 2024. The report emphasizes the need for careful monitoring of liquidity risks, especially for private enterprises [43][50]. Outlook for Overseas Projects - The report highlights a positive outlook for overseas engineering projects, particularly in "Belt and Road" countries, with expectations of continued demand growth in 2025 [11][62].