Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, the bond market rebounded, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, most convertible bond issues rose, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined, and yields of 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a pilot program for green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and municipalities, aiming to expand the cross - border financing scale of enterprises investing in green development or low - carbon transformation projects and improve the facilitation of green foreign debt business [3]. - The Ministry of Finance answered questions on regulating the construction and operation of government - social capital cooperation (PPP) stock projects, focusing on ensuring the completion of ongoing projects [3]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a total value of RMB 125 billion [4]. - **International News** - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a three - year high, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.4, a two - month low. The preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 55.4, a nine - month high. The price index reached a three - year high [5]. - The US labor market cooled significantly, with the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly increasing by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [6]. - Two Fed officials suggested that there may be no interest rate cut in September [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 21, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI October crude futures up 1.29% to $63.52 per barrel and Brent October crude futures up 1.24% to $67.67 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $3381.6 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.59% to $2.807 per ounce [8]. II. Liquidity Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On August 21, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 253 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 128.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 124.3 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 fell 0.99bp to 1.464%, and DR007 fell 5.40bp to 1.514% [11]. III. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 21, the bond market rebounded. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.90bp to 1.7610%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 fell 3.45bp to 1.8530% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds were tendered on August 21, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 21, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell more than 33%, while "21 Shanghai Shimao MTN002" rose more than 17% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced events such as being listed as被执行人, failing to repay loans, and delaying the disclosure of semi - annual reports [19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 21, the A - share market fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.06% and 0.46% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.42%, 0.31%, and 0.58% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - Some convertible bonds announced events such as approaching the conditions for downward revision of conversion prices and early redemption [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 3.74%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 4.29% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.75%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 6bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively [27].

Revenue Insights - In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.7% year-on-year, improving from a decline of -0.3% in June[1] - Tax revenue grew by 5.0% in July, significantly higher than the previous month's growth of 1.0%, while non-tax revenue fell by 12.9%[5] - The cumulative general public budget revenue from January to July showed a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, compared to a decline of -0.3% previously[7] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in July rose by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points from May[8] - Cumulative expenditure from January to July grew by 3.4%, slightly below the average progress of 54.4% over the past five years, completing 54.1% of the annual budget[9] Government Fund Performance - In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year-on-year, although this was a decrease of 11.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Government fund expenditure in July surged by 42.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown of 36.8 percentage points from the previous month[11] - From January to July, government fund expenditure grew by 31.7%, significantly outpacing the revenue growth due to accelerated issuance of local government special bonds, totaling 2.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year[11]

Employment and Economic Outlook - Powell's speech indicates rising downside risks in the labor market, suggesting a potential need for interest rate cuts[2] - July non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, significantly below the expected 115,000, with prior values revised down by 258,000[4] - The current labor market is described as a "peculiar balance," where both supply and demand have slowed, leading to increased unemployment risks[4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Powell shifts to a "short-term shock" view on inflation, deeming tariff impacts as one-time increases rather than persistent inflation drivers[5] - The Federal Reserve's new policy framework removes previous commitments to an average inflation target of 2% and the quantitative assessment of full employment[6] - This framework adjustment allows the Fed to prioritize employment over inflation when conflicts arise, facilitating potential rate cuts[6] Market Reactions and Future Projections - Following Powell's remarks, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from approximately 75% to 91.3%[6] - The dollar index fell by 0.78% to 97.88, while the two-year Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 3.69%, and the S&P 500 index increased by 1.6%[8] - If the core PCE price index drops below 2.8% in October, further rate cuts may occur in November and December, totaling 50-75 basis points for the year[8]

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for August remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in policy rates, particularly the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicates no changes in the pricing basis for LPR, leading to the unchanged rates[2] - The LPR has remained stable for three consecutive months, primarily due to a moderately strong macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, reducing the necessity for immediate adjustments[2] Group 2: Future Economic Outlook and Policy Adjustments - Economic data from July shows downward volatility, suggesting increased downward pressure on the economy in the third quarter, with external demand likely to slow[3] - There is potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in early Q4, which could lead to lower LPR rates[3] - Lower LPR rates are expected to stimulate internal financing demand, crucial for promoting consumption and investment in the second half of the year[3] - The current low inflation levels provide ample room for monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts, without immediate concerns over high inflation[3] - Strengthening policies for the real estate market in the second half of the year may involve guiding the 5-year LPR downwards to alleviate high mortgage rates and boost housing demand[3]

市场风险情绪与降息预期波动，上周金价震荡回调 黄金周报（2025.8.11-2025.8.17） 核心观点 市场风险情绪与降息预期波动，上周金价震荡回调。上周五 （8 月 15 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五回落 1.52%至 775.80 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周五下跌 2.21%至 3381.70 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 1.30% 至 773.09 元/克，伦敦金现货价格下跌 1.86%至 3335.28 美元 /盎司。具体来看，上周一（8 月 11 日）美国总统特朗普表示 不对黄金征收关税，这使得此前由黄金进口关税传闻引发的市 场动荡得到平息，金价大幅回落。周二公布的美国 7 月 CPI 数 据较为温和，市场降息预期升温支撑金价反弹。不过，随后公 布的美国 7 月 PPI 数据意外上涨、零售销售数据显著回升，打 压降息预期，带动美债利率大幅上行，加之特朗普与普京会谈 结果提高了俄乌冲突缓和的预期，市场风险情绪回落，共同对 金价形成压制。整体来看，上周金价波动下行。 本周（8 月 18 日当周）金价料将小幅下行。考虑到美国 7 月 PPI 数据意外超预期，暗示 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 18, during the tax payment period, the liquidity tightened; the bond market weakened significantly; the main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend, with most individual convertible bonds rising; the yields of U.S. Treasuries across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council, emphasizing enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, boosting domestic circulation, stabilizing the real estate market, and improving people's livelihood [3] - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors launched a self - regulatory investigation into institutions involved in the illegal use of bond issuance proceeds [4] - On August 18, the total market capitalization of A - shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high. The market rally was driven by policy dividends, industrial upgrading, and other factors [4] - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year - on - year, and emerging industries led the growth. Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index all rose [5] 3.1.2 International News - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin to arrange a three - party meeting, and both Russia and the U.S. supported direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [6] - In June, EU exports to the U.S. reached a two - year low, with a 10% year - on - year decline. The EU's trade surplus shrank, and the chemical industry was particularly affected. Germany's exports to the U.S. declined, and the strengthening of the euro exacerbated the challenges [7] 3.1.3 Commodities - On August 18, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI September crude oil futures rose 0.99% to $63.42 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures rose 1.14% to $66.60 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.12% to $3378.60 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.58% to $2.906 per ounce [8][9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On August 18, the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net injection was 154.5 billion yuan [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On August 18, due to tax payments, the liquidity tightened, and major repurchase rates increased. DR001 rose 4.70bp to 1.503%, and DR007 rose 3.46bp to 1.514% [12] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On August 18, the strong stock market and the tightened liquidity due to tax payments weakened the bond market. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 2.50bp to 1.7700%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 rose 2.25bp to 1.8900% [16] - **Bond Tendering Situation**: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds including 25NongfaDiscount07 (Increment 2) and 25Guokai06 (Increment 31) was provided, including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, and other details [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On August 18, 4 industrial bonds and 2 urban investment bonds had transaction prices deviating by more than 10%. For example, "H1 Bidi 04" rose by more than 31%, and "18 Taixing Xinghuang Bond 01" fell by more than 49% [18][19] - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple companies announced events such as adjusting bond repayment arrangements, canceling bond issuances, and facing losses or legal issues [21] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On August 18, the A - share market strengthened, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high. The main indices of the convertible bond market followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.92%, 0.87%, and 1.01% respectively. Most individual convertible bonds rose [21] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Jinwei Convertible Bond will start online subscription on August 20 [24] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On August 18, the yields of most U.S. Treasuries rose, with the 2 - year yield rising 2bp to 3.77% and the 10 - year yield rising 1bp to 4.34%. The 2/10 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread widened by 1bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate remained at 2.38% [25][26][27] - **European Bond Market**: On August 18, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of the German 10 - year government bond remained at 2.78%, while the yields of French, Italian, and Spanish 10 - year government bonds declined, and the yield of the British 10 - year government bond rose [28][29] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: Information on the daily price changes of top - 10 rising and falling Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on August 18 was provided, including companies such as Sunac China and SMIC [31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, leading to a volatile correction in gold prices. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, gold T+D spot, and London gold spot all declined. Specifically, on August 15, the Shanghai gold futures price dropped 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram compared to the previous Friday, and the COMEX gold futures price fell 2.21% to 3381.70 dollars/ounce. The gold T+D spot price decreased 1.30% to 773.09 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price declined 1.86% to 3335.28 dollars/ounce [1]. - Gold prices are expected to decline slightly this week. The unexpectedly high July PPI data in the US implies potential inflation rebound, which may lead Powell to reaffirm a policy - wait - and - see attitude at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, weakening interest rate cut expectations and pressuring gold prices. Additionally, Trump will continue to promote a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and the possibility of a further increase in geopolitical risks is low. In the long run, without clear driving factors, the overall upward trend of gold prices will not reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: The Shanghai gold futures price closed at 775.80 yuan/gram on August 15, down 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 3381.70 dollars/ounce, down 76.50 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of Shanghai gold futures was - 1.28%, and that of COMEX gold futures was - 3.14% [4][5]. - Spot: The gold T+D spot price closed at 773.09 yuan/gram on August 15, down 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous Friday; the London gold spot price closed at 3335.28 dollars/ounce, down 63.30 dollars/ounce. The cumulative decline of gold T+D was - 1.19%, and that of London gold was - 1.86% [4][5]. 1.2 Gold Basis - The international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 0.70 dollars/ounce last Friday, rising 8.65 dollars/ounce from the previous Friday; the Shanghai gold basis was - 3.37 yuan/gram, falling 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Market Spread - The foreign market gold price decline was greater than that of the domestic market last week. The gold domestic - foreign market spread on Friday was - 8.91 yuan/gram, rising from - 12.48 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The decline of crude oil prices was slightly greater than that of gold prices, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of silver prices was less than that of gold, leading to a continuous decline in the gold - silver ratio; copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 1.4 Position Analysis - Spot position: The gold ETF holdings continued to increase slightly last week. As of last Friday, the holdings of the world's largest SPRD gold ETF fund were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly, with the full - week cumulative trading volume at 151302 kilograms, a decrease of 9.64% from the previous week [13]. - Futures position: As of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the COMEX gold futures inventory increased slightly last week, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory continued to increase by 300 kilograms to 36345 kilograms [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that "most" US trade negotiations will be completed by October. He expected to basically complete negotiations with countries without trade agreements by the end of October [17]. - The US July CPI was lower than expected, and the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The July CPI increased 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%; the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.8% and the same as the previous value. The core CPI increased 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected value [19]. - The US July PPI soared month - on - month, reaching a three - year high. The year - on - year increase in PPI rose from 2.3% to 3.3%, well above the expected value of 2.5%; the month - on - month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. The core PPI also showed significant increases [20]. - The US July retail sales increased 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month. After excluding inflation, the real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year [21]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - Most Fed officials were cautious about the interest rate cut path last week. Richmond Fed President Barkin was unsure whether to focus more on controlling inflation or boosting the job market; Kansas City Fed President Schmid supported maintaining interest rates; Atlanta Fed President thought one interest rate cut in 2025 was appropriate if the labor market remained robust; St. Louis Fed President Musalem thought it was too early to judge whether to support a September interest rate cut; San Francisco Fed President Daly supported the Fed to start easing monetary policy next month; Chicago Fed President Goolsbee thought more data was needed to judge the inflation situation [28][29][30]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - The unexpectedly high US July PPI data cooled market expectations of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous Friday [31]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated upward last week. The mild July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased market expectations of a September interest rate cut, causing the yield to decline. However, the significant increase in PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the yield up. As of last Friday, the yield increased 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous Friday [33]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held a meeting, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. On August 18, European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington. In the Middle East, Israel continued to attack Gaza, and Hamas said it was a "new form of genocide" [36].

Economic Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decrease from 4.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% from January to July[1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, down from 2.8% in the previous period, with an annual growth target of 3.2%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate slowed by 1.1 percentage points in July, primarily due to weak domestic demand and external pressures[3] - Mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, down 1.1 percentage points, while manufacturing added value increased by 6.2%, down 1.2 percentage points[4] - Export delivery value only grew by 0.8% in July, a significant drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% in July, primarily due to the suspension of the old-for-new consumption policy in some regions[6] - The retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies increased by 20.6%, 28.7%, and 13.8% respectively, but growth rates decreased compared to June[6] - Cumulative retail sales growth from January to July was 4.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to July was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments[8] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points, influenced by external environment fluctuations and the implementation of anti-"involution" policies[8] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 12.0% from January to July, with a worsening drop of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period[10] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in August, with potential policy measures anticipated in the fourth quarter to stabilize the economy[12] - The macroeconomic policy may include increased fiscal support, interest rate cuts, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market[12] - The overall economic growth target for the year is around 5.0%, with expectations of a decline in industrial production growth due to weakening export momentum[12]

Group 1: Credit Data Overview - In July 2025, new RMB loans were -500 billion, a decrease of 3100 billion year-on-year, marking a rare negative value in 20 years[3] - The new social financing scale in July was 1.16 trillion, an increase of 3893 billion year-on-year, continuing a trend of year-on-year growth for eight consecutive months[6] - M2 growth rate in July was 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, while M1 growth rate was 5.6%, up 1.0 percentage points[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Credit Fluctuations - The significant drop in new loans was attributed to three main factors: overdraft effects, insufficient loan demand, and hidden debt replacement[3] - The overdraft effect from the previous month led to a substantial decline in July's loan demand, with an average monthly loan issuance of 1.1 trillion over June and July, consistent with the previous year[3] - The hidden debt replacement contributed to a negative 2600 billion in new medium- and long-term loans for enterprises in July, indicating a large scale of hidden debt replacement[4] Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - Despite a stable macroeconomic environment in the first half of the year, the second half is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy to lower financing costs and stimulate internal demand[9] - The current low price levels in China provide ample space for monetary policy to focus on growth, with expectations of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank in the fourth quarter[9] - The increase in government bond financing significantly supported the social financing growth, with a notable increase of 5559 billion in government bond financing in July[6]

Price Movements - On August 8, the Shanghai gold futures price rose by 2.22% to 787.80 CNY/g, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.24% to 3458.20 USD/oz[1] - The T+D gold spot price rose by 2.10% to 783.27 CNY/g, and London gold spot price increased by 1.07% to 3398.58 USD/oz[1] - The international gold basis (spot-futures) improved by 3.90 USD/oz to -9.35 USD/oz, while the Shanghai gold basis fell by 1.31 CNY/g to -1.57 CNY/g[7] Market Influences - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September was heightened due to weak economic indicators, including a decline in the ISM services PMI and an increase in unemployment claims[1][19] - President Trump's announcement that gold would not be subject to import tariffs helped stabilize the market after initial volatility caused by tariff concerns[2] Trading Volume and Positions - The global SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.56 tons to 959.64 tons, while the cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D rose by 4.05% to 167,436 kg[13] - The net long positions in gold futures increased significantly as institutional investors reduced their short positions[13] Economic Indicators - The ISM non-manufacturing index for July was reported at 50.1, below expectations, indicating economic stagnation[19] - The unemployment claims reached their highest level since the end of 2021, reflecting increasing economic risks[19] Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials expressed differing views on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action due to softening labor market data[30][32] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts, with some officials suggesting that the Fed may need to act more than twice this year[30]