Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose. The yields of the bond market showed a divergent trend, with the medium - and short - end yields continuing to decline and the long - end yields rising slightly. The convertible bond market also showed divergence following the equity market, and most convertible bond issues declined. The 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies also showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members. The central bank solicited public opinions on the revised business rules of the RMB Cross - border Payment System. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management business guidelines, which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [3][4]. - **International News**: Elon Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on July 5, aiming to "avoid US bankruptcy" and indicating participation in the 2026 mid - term elections. This marked the breakdown of his political alliance with Trump [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 4, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 0.72% to $68.30 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.24%. Spot gold rose 0.33% to $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92%. NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.53% to $3.387 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On July 4, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 491.9 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 0.10bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 4.52bp to 1.422%. Various inter - bank lending and repurchase rates also showed downward trends [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: On July 4, the trends of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds diverged. The medium - and short - end yields continued to decline due to loose liquidity, while the long - end yields rose slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.15bp to 1.6410% [14]. - **Bond Tenders**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25进出清发02, 25附息国债07(续2), and 25附息国债11(续2) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 4, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H1碧地01" falling more than 66% and "H0中骏02" falling more than 19% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Sunac China, Fantasia Holdings, Vanke, and Yida China announced matters related to share issuance, debt restructuring, guarantee balances, and loan defaults [17]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 4, the three major A - share indices showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.25% and 0.36% respectively. The convertible bond market also showed divergence, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rising 0.15% and 0.24% respectively, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.01%. Most convertible bond issues declined [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some convertible bonds such as Jingao Convertible Bond proposed to lower the conversion price, and some such as Jingduan Convertible Bond announced early redemptions [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market was closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 4, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed a divergent trend. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield dropped 1bp to 2.57%, France's rose 1bp, and those of Italy and the UK remained unchanged, while Spain's dropped 1bp [22]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of some Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of July 4 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields [25].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the bond market. 2. Core Views - Last week, the bond market showed a warm and volatile trend, with the yield curve becoming steeper. Despite some negative factors, the market was supported by loose liquidity and reduced treasury bond issuance, leading to a slight decline in long - term bond yields. Short - term rates continued to fall due to "spread - chasing" trades, further steepening the yield curve [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The upcoming June inflation data is likely to improve marginally but remain at a low level, with limited negative impact on the bond market. If liquidity remains loose, short - term bond rates may decline further. Long - term rates will likely continue to fluctuate, and the yield curve is expected to keep steepening [1]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was warm and volatile last week, with long - term bond yields falling slightly. The 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.03% for the week. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.29bp, and the 1 - year yield dropped by 0.90bp compared to the previous Friday, widening the term spread [3]. - Daily trends: On June 30, the bond market weakened initially but recovered slightly at the end. From July 1 - 3, the market was generally positive due to loose liquidity and "spread - chasing" trades. On July 4, short - term bonds were strong, while long - term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [3]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - A total of 47 interest - rate bonds were issued last week, 130 fewer than the previous week. The issuance volume was 513.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 354.4 billion yuan, and the net financing was 376.6 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 404.1 billion yuan. Treasury and policy - bank bond issuance and net financing increased, while local government bond issuance and net financing decreased significantly [11]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was generally acceptable. The average subscription multiples for treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds were 4.21 times, 3.38 times, and 21.15 times respectively [12]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - In June, China's macro - economic sentiment continued to recover. The manufacturing PMI rose 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.5%. The improvement was due to the effects of growth - stabilizing policies and eased trade tensions. The service PMI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, in line with seasonal patterns [13]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - On the production side, most high - frequency data declined last week, including blast furnace operating rates, semi - steel tire operating rates, and daily hot - metal production, while the asphalt plant operating rate increased slightly. - On the demand side, the BDI index and the CCFI index both decreased, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities dropped significantly. - In terms of prices, pork prices rebounded slightly, and most commodity prices rose, including crude oil, copper, and rebar [14]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 137.53 billion yuan from the open market last week. - R007 and DR007 both declined significantly, the inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate of joint - stock banks decreased, the 3 - month national - share direct - discount rate dropped, and the volume of pledged repurchase increased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio fluctuated slightly and remained basically the same as the previous week [24].

上周债市窄幅震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.6.23-2025.6.29） 作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 2025 年 6 月 30 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市窄幅震荡，收益率曲线延续陡峭化。上周（6 月 23 日 当周）债市先跌后涨。周一至周三，受中东局势缓和驱动股市 上涨，股债跷跷板效应显现影响，债市偏弱运行；周四，由于 发改委发布会无增量政策落地，市场情绪阶段性修复，债市小 幅回暖。整体上看，上周债市延续窄幅震荡格局，长债收益率 先上后下，整体小幅上行。短端利率方面，虽然临近季末，但 在央行有力"呵护"下，资金面整体较为宽松，推动债市短端 利率继续下行，收益率曲线延续陡峭化。 本周（6月30日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看， 6 月制造业 PMI 指数虽有小幅上升，但仍处于荣枯线下方，显 示基本面在外部环境扰动下继续承压，整体上依然利好债市。 从资金面来看，上周五公布的货币政策委员会二季度例会公告 强调"物价持续低位运行"以及"要实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加强逆周期调节"，加之近期央行通过多种方式 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 5 月财政收入端表现偏弱，财政支出节奏有所放缓 —— 2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：6 月 20 日，财政部公布的数据显示，2025 年 5 月，全国一般公共预算收入同 比增长 0.1%，4 月为 1.9%；5 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 2.6%，4 月为 5.8%；1-5 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 6.9%，1-4 月为-6.7%；1-5 月全国政府性基金支出累 计同比增长 16.0%，1-4 月为 17.7%。 5 月一般公共预算收入同比延续正增长，但增速较上月放缓 1.8 个百分点至 0.1%，其 中，税收收入同比增长 0.6%，增速低于上月的 1.9%，非税收入同比下降 2.2%，上月为增 长 1.7%。今年以来，非税收入增速大幅放缓，主要原因是去年非税收入高增，而非税收入 增长的持续性和稳定性比较弱，再加上去年四季度以来中央对地方化债的支持力度加大， 置换隐债再融资专项债等化债资金逐步落实到位，地方财政对资产盘活等非税收入的依赖 1 东方金诚宏观研究 度有所下降。 从主要税种来看，四大税种中，5 月个人所得税、增值税收入同比增速明显加快， ...

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

新一批消费品以旧换新资金 7 月下达；资金面均衡偏宽，债市整体偏暖震荡 【内容摘要】6 月 26 日，央行公开市场逆回购加力维稳，资金面均衡偏宽；市场情绪有所修 复，债市整体偏暖震荡；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率 普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【金融监管总局、央行联合发文：未来五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系】金融监管总 局、央行近日联合发布《银行业保险业普惠金融高质量发展实施方案》。实施方案提出，未来 五年基本建成高质量综合普惠金融体系，普惠金融促进共同富裕迈上新台阶。普惠金融服务体 系持续优化，普惠信贷体系巩固完善，普惠保险体系逐步健全。实施方案强调，实现普惠金融 高质量发展，必须加强党中央集中统一领导，供给多层次、多样化的普惠金融服务，持续提升 覆盖面和可得性，推动降低综合成本，不断提升普惠金融服务人民群众生产生活的能力和水平。 【国务院办公厅部署进一步完善信用修复制度】国务院办公厅日前印发《关于进一步完善信用 修复制度的实施方案》，旨在进一步完善统一规范、协同共享、科学高效的信用修复制度，更 好帮助信用主体高效 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 另外，考虑到下半年稳楼市政策需进一步加力，特别是 5 月 7 日央行宣布下调公积金贷 款利率 0.25 个百分点，为后期居民商业房贷利率下调打开了空间，预计下半年监管层有可能 通过单独引导 5 年期以上 LPR 报价下行等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。这是现阶 段缓解实际房贷利率偏高问题，激发购房需求，扭转楼市预期的关键一招。 1 6 月 LPR 报价持稳符合市场预期，下半年还有下调空间 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 事件： 2025 年 6 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新版 LPR 报价：1 年 期品种报 3.0%，上月为 3.0%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上月为 3.5%。 解读： 6 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价保持不变，符合市场预期。主要原因是 5 月央行实施政策 性降息后，当月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价同步下调，当前正在向贷款利率传导；6 月政策利 率保持不变，影响 LPR 报价加点的因素也没有发生重大变化，因此 6 月两个期限品种的 LPR 报价不动符合市场预期。我们预计，短期内将进入政策观察期，LPR 报价有可能继续保持稳 定。 往后看，下半年 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 关税对通胀传导路径不明， 美联储仍将继续观望 ——美联储 6 月货币政策会议点评与展望 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 事件：美东时间 6 月 18 日周三，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标 区间依然维持在 4.25%至 4.5%，符合市场普遍预期。本次美联储的决议相比上次大致保持不变，但提 出经济前景的不确定性有所减弱。反映美联储官员对利率前景预期水平的点阵图显示，美联储官员预 计今年会有两次 25 个基点的降息，和 3 月的预测完全相同，但预计今年不降息的官员增加。会后公 布的经济展望显示，美联储官员本次下调了今明两年的 GDP 增长预期、上调今明后三年的失业率预 期、上调今明后三年的 PCE 通胀以及核心 PCE 通胀预期。 鲍威尔在记者会上表示，目前美国经济形势稳固，他对就业市场情况满意。但贸易政策和财政政 策的调整仍然不确定，而加征关税可能会推高美国的价格，关税对通胀的影响可能会更加顽固，预计 未来数月将出现一定幅度的通胀压力上升。他也表示，目前来看，关税的总体影响有多大、会持续多 久、什么时候完全体现出来，都非常不确定。他重申，这可能会发现美联储双重职责 ...

5 月经济运行总体平稳；税期资金面保持宽松，债市以震荡为主 【内容摘要】 6 月 16 日，央行连续净投放，税期资金面保持宽松；债市以震荡为主，短券表 现稍强；转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要 欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【5 月经济运行总体平稳，消费市场延续向好势头】国家统计局 6 月 16 日发布的数据显示， 5 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，1-5 月全 国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 3.7%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，5 月，随着 政策组合效应持续释放，稳经济促发展效果显现，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势， 充分展现了我国经济的韧性和活力。下阶段，要统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移 办好自己的事，把扩大内需、做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，着力稳就业稳经济推动高 质量发展，推动经济持续健康发展。 【国家统计局：5 月份各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续收窄】6 月 16 日，国家统计 局公布 70 城房价数据，5 月份，各线城市房价 ...

东方金诚固收研究 图 1 近一周美国十年期国债收益率（%） 美国 5 月通胀低于预期，10 年期美债收益率连续下行 ———美债专题跟踪（2025.6.9-2025.6.13） 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 1.上周美债收益率走势回顾 2025 年 6 月 9 日当周，10 年期美债收益率整体大幅下行。具体来看：周一，美国纽约联储 发布的 5 月消费者通胀预期全面回落，10 年期美债收益率与前一周五（6 月 6 日）相比下行 2bp 至 4.49%；周二，当日美国财政部 3 个月及 1 年期国债拍卖需求稳健，10 年期美债收益率 由此下行 2bp 至 4.47%；周三，当日公布的美国 5 月核心 CPI 连续第四个月低于预期，强化市 场降息预期，10 年期美债收益率因此下行 6bp 至 4.41%；周四，当日公布的美国 5 月 PPI 通胀 率表现温和，加之当日财政部 30 年期国债拍卖需求强劲，推动 10 年期美债收益率下行 5bp 至 4.36%；周五，当日以色列对伊朗展开空袭，油价飙升引发的通胀担忧压倒了对美债的避险需求， 加之当日公布的美国密歇根消费者信心指数好于预期，10 年期美债收益率由此上行 5bp ...