Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, and the yield curve continued to steepen. The bond market first declined and then rose. Due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and other factors, long - term bond yields first increased and then decreased, with a slight overall increase, while short - term interest rates continued to decline [1]. - This week, the bond market is expected to continue the volatile trend. Although the fundamentals and capital situation are still favorable to the bond market, the removal of the direct mention of "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in the second - quarter regular meeting announcement of the Monetary Policy Committee has postponed the market's interest rate cut expectations, and the bullish momentum of the bond market may be insufficient. In the context of crowded market trading, bond market volatility may increase [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated narrowly last week, with long - term bond yields rising slightly. The main contract of the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.11% cumulatively, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.66bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury bond yield fell 1.00bp, with the term spread continuing to widen [2]. - From June 23rd to June 25th, affected by factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and market expectations of policy announcements, the bond market was generally weak; on June 26th, the bond market warmed up slightly due to the lack of incremental policies at the press conference; on June 27th, the bond market continued to be strong in the morning and adjusted slightly in the late session [2]. 1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 177 interest - rate bonds were issued, an increase of 94 compared with the previous week. The issuance volume was 867.6 billion yuan, a slight increase of 13.1 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 780.7 billion yuan, a significant increase of 457.7 billion yuan [9]. - In terms of bond types, the issuance volume of local bonds increased significantly, while the issuance volume of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds decreased. The net financing amount of policy - financial bonds and local bonds increased, while that of Treasury bonds decreased [9]. - The overall subscription demand for interest - rate bonds last week was acceptable. The average subscription multiples of Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local bonds were 4.12 times, 3.28 times, and 20.35 times respectively [12]. 2. Last Week's Important Events - On June 25th, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations through interest - rate tender. In June, the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF renewals, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan. This was to maintain the liquidity of the banking system and strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment. In the second half of the year, the MLF is expected to continue to be renewed with an increased volume [13]. 3. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The operating rates of petroleum asphalt plants and daily pig iron output increased, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the blast furnace operating rate remained the same as the previous week [14]. - From the demand side, the BDI index continued to decline significantly, the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) continued to rise, and the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase slightly [14]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, and most commodity prices declined. Crude oil and rebar prices fell, while copper prices continued to rise [14]. 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital injection of 126.72 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007 both increased significantly, the issuance interest rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks increased significantly, the interest rates of national and stock - backed direct discounts for various terms increased, and the trading volume of pledged repurchase continued to increase. The leverage ratio of the inter - bank market fluctuated slightly downward [26][27][33].

Revenue Performance - In May 2025, the national general public budget revenue grew by only 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from April's 1.9%[1] - The broad fiscal revenue in May saw a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, slowing down by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Tax revenue increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 1.9% in April, while non-tax revenue fell by 2.2% compared to a growth of 1.7% in April[3] Expenditure Trends - In May, the national general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points from April's 5.8%[4] - Cumulative general public budget expenditure from January to May reached 38.0% of the annual budget, exceeding the average of 37.4% over the past five years[5] - Infrastructure-related expenditures in May decreased by 7.7% year-on-year, a decline of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] Government Fund Insights - Government fund revenue in May fell by 8.1% year-on-year, a significant drop of 16.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in land transfer income[7] - The land transfer income in May decreased by 14.6% year-on-year, a sharp decline from April's growth of 4.3%[8] - Government fund expenditure in May grew by 8.8% year-on-year, but this was a significant decrease from April's 44.7% growth rate[9]

Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index in June was 50.5%, also up 0.2 percentage points from May[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.7%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May[1] Policy Impact - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the ongoing effects of growth-stabilizing policies, including a series of financial measures announced on May 7, which led to a sustained increase in social financing[2] - The new orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone, indicating strong market demand[2] Trade Environment - The easing of trade tensions, particularly following the May 12 de-escalation of the "tariff war," contributed to a slight recovery in the new export orders index, which rose to 47.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Sector Performance - The construction PMI in June was 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating robust activity despite a slight decline in civil engineering indices[6] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.9%, reflecting strong demand and policy support[4] Challenges Ahead - Despite the positive indicators, the overall export slowdown may continue due to high tariffs exceeding 40% on Chinese goods[3] - The real estate market shows signs of intensified adjustment, which may limit the PMI's rebound potential[3] Future Outlook - GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at around 5.2%, with no major new policy measures expected in the short term[7] - The manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain around 49.7% in July, but with significant downward risks due to external pressures[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On June 26, the central bank increased its reverse repurchase operations in the open - market to maintain stability, resulting in a balanced and slightly loose capital market. Market sentiment improved, and the bond market showed a generally warm and volatile trend. The main indices of the convertible bond market declined in tandem, with most individual convertible bonds falling. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally decreased, while the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - Financial regulators and the central bank jointly issued a plan to basically establish a high - quality comprehensive inclusive financial system in the next five years, aiming to promote common prosperity through inclusive finance [3]. - The State Council's General Office deployed the improvement of the credit repair system, proposing ten key tasks to address difficulties and pain points in credit repair [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that new funds for consumer goods trade - in programs will be allocated in July, and the "two new" policies have been intensified and expanded. The support from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal is 200 billion yuan, with the first batch of about 173 billion yuan already allocated [5][6]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will release a series of convertible and exchangeable bond indices based on refined credit ratings [6]. 3.1.2 International News - The final value of the U.S. GDP in the first quarter was revised down to - 0.5%, and personal consumption had its weakest performance since the COVID - 19 pandemic. However, the order for durable goods in May had a significant increase, with a month - on - month initial value of 16.4% [7][8]. - International crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while the decline of international natural gas prices widened [9]. 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On June 26, the central bank conducted 509.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital injection of 305.8 billion yuan after deducting the maturing reverse repurchases [11]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates On June 26, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operations maintained stability, leading to a balanced and slightly loose capital market. DR001 and DR007 decreased by 0.19bp and 0.86bp respectively [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Spot Bond Yield Trends On June 26, due to the stock market decline and the lack of incremental policies in the NDRC press conference, market sentiment improved, and the bond market showed a generally warm and volatile trend. Yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year CDB bonds decreased [14]. 3.3.2 Bond Tendering No treasury bonds or CDB bonds were issued on June 26 [16]. 3.3.3 Credit Bonds - In the secondary market, the trading price of "24 Oceanwide Holdings PPN001 (Reorganization)" increased by more than 10% [17]. - Guangzhou Metro Group cancelled the issuance of "25 Guangzhou Metro MTN002", and Zhongzheng Pengyuan downgraded the credit rating of Suzhou Keda and its "Keda Convertible Bonds" [18]. 3.3.4 Convertible Bonds - On June 26, the three major A - share indices closed down, and the main indices of the convertible bond market also declined. The trading volume of the convertible bond market increased compared to the previous trading day, with most individual convertible bonds falling [19]. - Credit ratings of Diou Home and Beijing Keland Software and their convertible bonds were downgraded. The deadline for the overseas debt restructuring support agreement of Fantasia Holdings was extended, and the coupon rate of "20 Longfor 06" was to be raised [21]. 3.3.5 Overseas Bond Markets - On June 26, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally decreased, and the yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds widened. The break - even inflation rate of 10 - year U.S. inflation - protected Treasury bonds remained unchanged [22][23][24]. - Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [25]. - There were price changes in Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds, with some bonds rising and others falling [27].

Group 1: LPR Pricing Stability - The LPR rates for June remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the lack of significant changes in factors affecting LPR adjustments following the May policy rate cut[2] - A policy observation period is anticipated in the short term, with LPR rates likely to remain stable[2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Economic Impact - There is potential for LPR rate cuts in the second half of the year due to uncertainties in the external environment and efforts to boost domestic demand[2] - The central bank is expected to continue lowering interest rates, which will lead to further reductions in LPR rates, thereby decreasing financing costs for the real economy[2] - The recent reduction of 0.25 percentage points in public housing loan rates opens up space for further cuts in commercial mortgage rates[3] - Regulatory measures may be implemented to guide the 5-year LPR rates downward, significantly impacting residential mortgage rates and stimulating housing demand[3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations[2] - The dot plot indicates two expected rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, unchanged from March, but the number of officials not expecting cuts has increased[2] - Economic outlook revisions show a decrease in GDP growth expectations and an increase in unemployment and PCE inflation forecasts for the next two years[2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Powell expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising prices and creating persistent inflationary pressures, with uncertainty about the overall impact of tariffs on inflation[2][6] - The uncertainty index for U.S. trade policy decreased to 5846.74, returning to March levels, indicating reduced negative impacts from tariff policies[6] - Despite stable employment data, inflation risks are heightened, with expectations of noticeable inflation increases in the coming months[8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls showing a decline, reflecting a moderate economic slowdown[7] - Recent data indicates a significant drop in retail sales by 0.9% in May, the largest decline in two years, and a 0.2% decrease in industrial output[12] - Initial jobless claims rose to 248,000, the highest since October 2024, suggesting increasing difficulty in the labor market[12]

5 月经济运行总体平稳；税期资金面保持宽松，债市以震荡为主 【内容摘要】 6 月 16 日，央行连续净投放，税期资金面保持宽松；债市以震荡为主，短券表 现稍强；转债市场主要指数集体跟涨，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上行，主要 欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【5 月经济运行总体平稳，消费市场延续向好势头】国家统计局 6 月 16 日发布的数据显示， 5 月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长 6.4%，1-5 月全 国固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长 3.7%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，5 月，随着 政策组合效应持续释放，稳经济促发展效果显现，国民经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势， 充分展现了我国经济的韧性和活力。下阶段，要统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移 办好自己的事，把扩大内需、做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，着力稳就业稳经济推动高 质量发展，推动经济持续健康发展。 【国家统计局：5 月份各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅继续收窄】6 月 16 日，国家统计 局公布 70 城房价数据，5 月份，各线城市房价 ...

东方金诚固收研究 图 1 近一周美国十年期国债收益率（%） 美国 5 月通胀低于预期，10 年期美债收益率连续下行 ———美债专题跟踪（2025.6.9-2025.6.13） 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 1.上周美债收益率走势回顾 2025 年 6 月 9 日当周，10 年期美债收益率整体大幅下行。具体来看：周一，美国纽约联储 发布的 5 月消费者通胀预期全面回落，10 年期美债收益率与前一周五（6 月 6 日）相比下行 2bp 至 4.49%；周二，当日美国财政部 3 个月及 1 年期国债拍卖需求稳健，10 年期美债收益率 由此下行 2bp 至 4.47%；周三，当日公布的美国 5 月核心 CPI 连续第四个月低于预期，强化市 场降息预期，10 年期美债收益率因此下行 6bp 至 4.41%；周四，当日公布的美国 5 月 PPI 通胀 率表现温和，加之当日财政部 30 年期国债拍卖需求强劲，推动 10 年期美债收益率下行 5bp 至 4.36%；周五，当日以色列对伊朗展开空袭，油价飙升引发的通胀担忧压倒了对美债的避险需求， 加之当日公布的美国密歇根消费者信心指数好于预期，10 年期美债收益率由此上行 5bp ...

Economic Performance - In May, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, down from 6.1% in the previous month[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year in May, up from 5.1% in April, indicating stronger consumer demand[3] - Fixed asset investment for January to May showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[3] Industrial Sector Insights - The manufacturing sector's added value growth slowed to 6.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to external trade environment changes[8] - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises fell to 0.6% year-on-year in May, down from 0.9% in April, reflecting ongoing challenges in international trade[8] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6%, indicating resilience in this sector despite overall industrial slowdowns[8] Consumer Behavior - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted sales in durable goods, with household appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively[12] - Despite a rebound in automobile retail sales growth to 1.1%, there remains a significant gap between sales volume and revenue growth, attributed to price pressures in the market[12] - Overall, consumer spending showed strong resilience, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption[12] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment for January to May grew by 8.5%, but is expected to decline to around 8.3% in the coming months due to external economic pressures[13] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.7%, with a monthly drop of 12.4% in May, reflecting a cooling housing market[13] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6% year-on-year, but the monthly growth rate fell to 5.1%, indicating a slowdown in project implementation[16] Future Outlook - The central bank is expected to continue interest rate cuts in the second half of the year to support economic growth, alongside new fiscal measures[17] - The real estate market requires further stabilization efforts, with policies aimed at supporting housing purchases and reducing mortgage rates being prioritized[17]

Loan Data Analysis - In May 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, marking a record low growth rate of 7.1%[4][7] - Corporate loans decreased by 210 billion year-on-year, with medium to long-term corporate loans down by 170 billion, primarily due to local government debt replacement[8][9] - In contrast, short-term corporate loans increased by 230 billion year-on-year, driven by a low base from the previous year[9] Social Financing Insights - New social financing in May reached 22,894 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, continuing a trend of six consecutive months of year-on-year growth[4][11] - Government bond financing significantly contributed to social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion in May[11][12] - Corporate bond financing also rose by 1,211 billion year-on-year, aided by lower bond issuance rates and the launch of technology innovation bonds[12] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating strong financial support for the real economy[4][14] - The central bank is expected to continue implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the second half of the year to stimulate domestic demand[15] - Overall, the financial support for the real economy is anticipated to strengthen, with expectations for new loans and social financing to show significant year-on-year growth in the latter half of 2025[15]