Economic Indicators - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first return to expansion since April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from November, with the construction index at 52.8%, rising 3.2 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7% in December[1] Policy Impact - The recovery in market demand is attributed to effective growth stabilization policies, including the introduction of two 500 billion yuan policies, which have positively impacted infrastructure and manufacturing investments[2] - The issuance of an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds is expected to provide 200 billion yuan in new funding for project construction, further stimulating domestic demand[2] Sector Performance - The manufacturing new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, driven by strong market demand and resilient export conditions, with the new export orders index increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, contributing significantly to the overall PMI rise[3] - The construction PMI returned to expansion at 52.8%, primarily due to the impact of new policy financial tools and favorable weather conditions in southern provinces[5] Challenges and Outlook - The service sector PMI remained in contraction at 49.7%, despite a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing weak consumer demand, particularly in retail and dining sectors[4][5] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued support from growth stabilization policies, but challenges remain due to high tariffs affecting global trade and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6]

Group 1: Core Views - Market liquidity easing expectations led to an accelerated rise in gold prices last week. On December 26, the Shanghai gold futures price rose 3.71% to 1016.30 yuan/gram, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 4.42% to 4562.00 US dollars/ounce. Spot gold prices also increased. The rise was due to Trump's statement and dovish remarks from a potential Fed chair candidate, geopolitical tensions, and reduced market liquidity during the Christmas holiday. This week, gold prices are expected to fluctuate and correct due to profit-taking, margin adjustments, etc. However, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [3]. Group 2: Last Week's Market Review 1. Gold Spot and Futures Price Movements - On December 26, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 1016.30 yuan/gram, up 36.40 yuan/gram from the previous week; the COMEX gold futures price closed at 4562.00 US dollars/ounce, up 193.30 US dollars/ounce. Gold T+D spot price closed at 1008.80 yuan/gram, up 32.98 yuan/gram, and the London gold spot price closed at 4532.51 US dollars/ounce, up 191.45 US dollars/ounce [4]. 2. Gold Basis - On December 26, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - 96.80 US dollars/ounce, down 80.40 US dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was - 2.06 yuan/gram, up 0.36 yuan/gram from the previous week [8]. 3. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Last week, the foreign gold price increase was more significant than the domestic one. The domestic - foreign price difference was - 53.82 yuan/gram on December 26, down from - 41.09 yuan/gram the previous week. The gold - oil ratio continued to rise, the gold - silver ratio continued to fall, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [9]. 4. Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings increased slightly last week. As of December 26, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1071.13 tons, up 18.59 tons. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D increased significantly, but decreased 5.44% from the previous week. In terms of futures positions, as of December 16, the net long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions continued to rise. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to rise, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 5976 kilograms to 97692 kilograms [14]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Fundamentals 1. Important Economic Data - The preliminary data of the US Q3 GDP showed an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate of 4.3%, higher than the expected 3.3% but lower than the previous 3.8%. The core PCE price index was 2.9%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous 2.6%. Consumer spending increased by 3.5%, while non - residential investment growth slowed and residential investment declined. In October, US durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, but core durable goods orders increased for the seventh consecutive month. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of December 20 decreased to 214,000 [19][20][21]. 2. Fed Policy Tracking - 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack said there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months and questioned the accuracy of November inflation data. New York Fed President Williams also said there is no urgency to further cut interest rates [33]. 3. US Dollar Index Movement - Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated downward, dropping 0.69% to 98.03 as of December 26 due to the Christmas holiday and continued market easing expectations [34]. 4. US TIPS Yield Movement - Last week, the US 10 - year TIPS yield decreased slightly by 1bp to 1.91% due to continued market expectations of liquidity easing [38]. 5. International Important Event Tracking - There was significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. Trump said the talks with Zelensky on December 28 made "great progress", and Zelensky said 90% of the peace framework was agreed upon [41].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On December 29, overnight funds were abundant, but the contradiction of cross - year stratification still existed. The concern over ultra - long bond supply and cross - year fund fluctuations led to a significant weakening of the bond market. The main indexes of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most convertible bond issues declined. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally decreased, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies also generally declined [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The People's Bank of China issued an action plan for digital RMB, and a new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operation mechanism, and ecosystem will be officially launched on January 1, 2026 [4]. - From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 756257.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1%; the total profit was 37194.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; the payable taxes were 52803 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%. As of the end of November, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2% [4]. - Starting from January 1, 2026, the State Council Tariff Commission will adjust the import tariff rates and tariff items of some commodities, including implementing temporary import tariff rates lower than the most - favored - nation rates for 935 commodities and canceling the temporary import tariff rates of some commodities [5]. - As of the end of November, the net asset value of public funds in China reached 37.02 trillion yuan, an increase of about 60 billion yuan from the end of October, breaking through the 37 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time and setting a new high for eight consecutive months [6]. - **International News** - The minutes of the December meeting of the Bank of Japan suggested more interest rate hikes as many members thought the real interest rate was still very low. The meeting raised the benchmark interest rate to 0.75%, a 30 - year high. Economists expect another rate hike in about six months, with most believing the terminal rate of this hiking cycle will be 1.25% [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 29, WTI February crude oil futures rose 1.84% to $58.08 per barrel; Brent February crude oil futures rose 2.14% to $61.94 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 4.47% to $4349.20 per ounce; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 10.81% to $3.943 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Funding Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On December 29, the central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment of funds on the day was 4150 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 29, the central bank increased the net investment scale. Overnight funds were abundant, but the cross - year stratification contradiction still existed. DR001 decreased by 1.39bp to 1.242%, and DR007 increased by 7.07bp to 1.594%. Other funding rates also showed different changes [12][13]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - rate Bonds** - The local bond issuance plan announced by Shandong on December 29 triggered concerns about ultra - long bond supply, and combined with cross - year funding fluctuations, the bond market weakened significantly. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 rose 2.25bp to 1.8580%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 rose 3.30bp to 1.9395% [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - One industrial bond, "H0 Zhongnan 02", had a trading price deviation of over 10% on December 29. There were also announcements from many real - estate and other companies regarding bond repayment, resumption of trading, debt restructuring, etc. [18][19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On December 29, the three major A - share indexes showed different trends. The convertible bond market followed the equity market and adjusted. The main convertible bond indexes closed down collectively, and most convertible bond issues declined. Shenyu Convertible Bonds will be listed on December 30 [20][21]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market**: Yields of U.S. Treasuries across all maturities generally decreased on December 29. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1bp to 3.45%, and the 10 - year yield decreased by 2bp to 4.12%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 67bp; the 5/30 - year yield spread remained unchanged at 113bp. The 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate decreased by 1bp to 2.22% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market**: Yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally decreased on December 29. The 10 - year German government bond yield decreased by 3bp to 2.83%, and those of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK also decreased [25][26]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - funded U.S. Dollar Bonds**: The report shows the daily price changes of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on December 29, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of different bonds [27].

Economic Outlook - The actual GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, maintaining a medium-high growth level[2] - Global GDP growth is expected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025[4] - China's fixed asset investment growth is forecasted to turn positive at 2.5% in 2026, recovering from a negative growth of -3.0% in 2025[4] Trade and Export Impact - China's export growth is anticipated to decline significantly from approximately 5.0% in 2025 to around 1.0% in 2026 due to increased U.S. tariffs[15] - The average U.S. import tariff rate is projected to rise to 19.5% in 2026, impacting global trade dynamics[8] Policy Measures - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is set to remain at 4.0%, with an increase in new special bond issuance expected to reach 5.0 trillion yuan[41] - A reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points is anticipated in 2026, with a focus on maintaining liquidity in the market[52] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer retail sales growth is expected to accelerate to 5.0%-6.0% in 2026, up from 3.9% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies[65] - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to increase to 5.0% in 2026, significantly higher than the previous year's performance[71] Inflation and Price Levels - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise to 0.4% in 2026, indicating a slight improvement in the low inflation environment[76] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is forecasted to decline by -1.8% in 2026, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the economy[76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to fluctuate between 1.83% and 1.88%. The improvement in cross-year funds is expected to support the continued strength of short-term bonds, and the yield curve may steepen further [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Bond Market Review Secondary Market - The bond market fluctuated last week, with short-term bond yields declining significantly and long-term yields rising slightly. The 10-year Treasury futures main contract rose 0.20% cumulatively. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.68bp from the previous Friday, while the 1-year Treasury yield dropped 6.75bp, and the term spread widened significantly [5] - On December 22, the bond market weakened under pressure due to stable LPR quotes and rising stock markets. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 1.09bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.09% [6] - On December 23, the bond market strengthened due to the entry of allocation funds. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.63bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.26% [6] - On December 24, the bond market oscillated under the influence of multiple rumors. The 10-year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.04bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.02% [6] - On December 25, the bond market fluctuated narrowly, with short-term bonds remaining warm and medium - and long-term bonds weakening. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.30bp, and the 10-year futures main contract fell 0.02% [6] - On December 26, the bond market warmed up due to loose funds and early - year allocation expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.10bp, and the 10-year futures main contract rose 0.10% [6][7] Primary Market - Nine interest rate bonds were issued last week, 26 less than the previous week, with a total issuance of 210.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 166 billion yuan. The net financing was 174.8 billion yuan, an increase of 153.9 billion yuan. There were no policy - financial bonds issued or repaid. Treasury issuance and net financing increased, while local bond issuance decreased, and net financing also decreased [15] - The overall subscription demand for interest rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiple for 3 issued Treasuries was 2.74 times, and for 6 local bonds, it was 15.17 times [16] 2. Last Week's Important Events - The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in December was 100 billion yuan, which was the tenth consecutive month of increased roll - over, meeting market expectations. This was to support the liquidity of the banking system and help stabilize growth and expectations at the end of the year [18] 3. Real Economy Observation - High - frequency production data showed mixed trends last week. Blast furnace operating rates and petroleum asphalt plant operating rates continued to decline, while semi - steel tire operating rates and daily hot metal production rebounded [19] - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to decline, while the CCFI index continued to rise. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to increase [19] - In terms of prices, pork prices fell slightly, while most commodity prices rose, including copper and oil prices, and the rebar price fell slightly [19] 4. Last Week's Liquidity Observation - The central bank's net investment in the open market last week was 155.2 billion yuan [26][28] - R007 and DR007 both rose, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks declined overall, the national - share direct discount rate increased significantly, the volume of pledged repurchase decreased significantly, and the leverage ratio of the inter - bank market first rose and then fell, with a slight overall increase [31][33][36]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded eight consecutive positive days, and convertible bonds also saw increased trading volume and price hikes. The convertible bond market followed the underlying stocks, with significantly improved trading activity. The small - cap style continued to outperform, and high - price and small - cap convertible bond indices led the gains. - In the short term, the convertible bond market may experience increased volatility and enter a volatile phase. This is because the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the critical 4000 - point level after eight consecutive positive days, and the convertible bond valuation has increased marginally. Additionally, there may be liquidity impacts before the holiday, and the continuous outflow of funds from convertible bond ETFs indicates a relatively cautious outlook among low - risk - preference investors. - Overall, hard - tech themes with obvious policy catalysts or industrialization prospects are still expected to perform well in the cross - year and spring rallies, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Recently, the listing pace of new convertible bond issues has accelerated, and convertible bond subscription remains highly cost - effective. However, the high - flying sectors such as commercial aerospace and lithium - battery may have relatively lower cost - effectiveness after their short - term price increases [3][11]. Policy Tracking - On December 24, eight departments including the central bank issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", aiming to deepen financial reform, innovation, and opening - up, and comprehensively improve the financial service system of the corridor, which will support high - quality development, drive high - level opening - up of inland areas, and contribute to the overall development of the country and global integration. - On December 26, the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund jointly established by the NDRC and the Ministry of Finance was launched. It emphasizes support for "hard - tech", adheres to the "early - stage and small - scale investment" principle, shares venture capital risks, and strengthens post - investment management. Three regional funds have been established and have signed a number of intended sub - funds and direct investment projects in fields like integrated circuits, quantum technology, and biotechnology [4][5]. Secondary Market Equity Market - Last week, major domestic equity market indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increased by 1.88%, 3.53%, and 3.90% respectively. Overseas, the US stock market rose, the US dollar and US Treasury yields declined slightly, and most global capital markets closed higher. In China, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate above 7 boosted market confidence, and the equity market showed significant volume - driven growth, with the cross - year rally gradually starting. The commercial aerospace and intelligent driving sectors, as well as the non - ferrous metals sector, performed well [7]. - Specifically, the daily trading volume in the A - share market was high throughout the week, ranging from 1.88 trillion yuan to 2.18 trillion yuan. Different sectors were active on different days, such as the Hainan Free Trade Port concept, semiconductor industry chain, and commercial aerospace concept [8]. Convertible Bond Market - The major convertible bond market indices rose collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index increased by 1.64%, 1.53%, and 1.75% respectively, with an average daily trading volume of 800.58 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 164.46 billion yuan compared to the previous week. - The small - cap style continued to outperform in the convertible bond market. The Wind Convertible Bond High - Price Index led the gains among sub - indices with a 3.80% increase, and small - cap convertible bonds also showed strong performance with a gain of over 2%. High - rated and large - cap convertible bonds lagged. - In terms of historical quantiles, the overall price level of underlying stocks changed slightly, the conversion value increased marginally, driving the convertible bond price to rise further. The valuation level also increased, and the trading sentiment improved significantly. - In terms of industries, most convertible bonds in various industries rose. Convertible bonds in the national defense and military industry led the market with an average increase of over 7%, and those in the building materials industry also performed well. Only convertible bonds in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage industries declined slightly. - In terms of valuation, most convertible bond valuations in various industries decreased. The average conversion premium rate since 2020 decreased by 2.16 percentage points to the 52.60% quantile, and the median conversion premium rate decreased by 1.90 percentage points to the 49.97% quantile. - In terms of individual bonds, most convertible bonds rose. Among the rising bonds, Jiamei Convertible Bond rose by over 37%, followed by Zai 22 Convertible Bond and Mengsheng Convertible Bond, which rose by over 30% and 29% respectively. Among the falling bonds, Huati Convertible Bond led the decline with a drop of over 17% [9][10][12][13]. Primary Market - Last week, Jin 05 Convertible Bond and Shuangle Convertible Bond were issued, and Puxin Convertible Bond was listed. Six convertible bonds were redeemed early, and three convertible bonds matured and were delisted. As of December 26, the outstanding scale of the convertible bond market was 558.791 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.102 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year and 8.35 billion yuan compared to the previous week. - The issuance scale last week was 2.472 billion yuan. Jin 05 Convertible Bond is issued by Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology Co., Ltd., a global power equipment supplier. Shuangle Convertible Bond is issued by Shuangle Pigment Co., Ltd., which focuses on digital and intelligent transformation services. - Puxin Convertible Bond rose by 57.3% on its first trading day and over 64% in the first week. As of last Friday, its conversion premium rate reached 83.44%, exceeding the market median level. - Six convertible bonds had a conversion ratio of over 5% last week, six less than the previous week. Some bonds have announced early redemptions or are expected to trigger early redemption conditions. - As of last Friday, three convertible bonds have been approved by the CSRC and are awaiting issuance, with a total scale of 3.429 billion yuan, and ten convertible bonds have passed the review committee, with a total scale of 8.515 billion yuan [36][37][39][40][41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 23, the liquidity remained loose; the entry of allocation funds boosted the bond market to strengthen with fluctuations; the convertible bond market adjusted, with most convertible bond issues declining; yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally fell [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping emphasized that central enterprises should serve the overall situation, optimize the layout of the state - owned economy, strengthen R & D of key core technologies, deepen reforms, and balance development and security [3] - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, central enterprises should play a key role in infrastructure construction, ensure the autonomy and controllability of the industrial chain, support technological self - reliance, serve national strategies, and deepen state - owned enterprise reforms [4] - The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the real estate market has great potential. It is necessary to establish a new development model, implement city - specific policies, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market [6] 3.1.2 International News - The U.S. GDP in Q3 grew at an annualized quarterly rate of 4.3%, exceeding expectations. Consumer spending was strong, while investment performance was divided, with non - residential investment slowing and residential investment dragging down the economy [7] - In October, U.S. durable goods orders decreased by 2.2% month - on - month, worse than expected. However, the year - on - year growth rate remained positive, and core orders showed resilience [8] 3.1.3 Commodities - On December 23, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, and international natural gas prices rose by over 10%. Gold futures also saw an increase [9] 3.2 Liquidity 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On December 23, the central bank conducted 593 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 1353 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net capital withdrawal was 760 billion yuan [11] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On December 23, the liquidity remained loose. DR001 decreased by 0.14bp to 1.269%, and DR007 decreased by 2.32bp to 1.411%. Other funding rates also showed various changes [12][13] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - On December 23, the bond market strengthened with fluctuations due to the obvious entry of allocation funds. Yields of 10 - year Treasury and China Development Bank bonds both decreased by 0.85bp. Yields of bonds across other maturities also generally declined [14][15] - There were no Treasury or China Development Bank bond issuances on that day [16] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - On December 23, the trading prices of two industrial bonds deviated by over 10%, with "21 Vanke 06" falling by over 10% and "23 Vanke MTN001" rising by over 23% [17] - Multiple companies announced important events, including cancellations of proposals, legal disputes, disciplinary actions, and the completion of restructuring plans [20] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - On December 23, the three major A - share indices rose. The convertible bond market adjusted, with major indices falling. The trading volume increased. Most convertible bond issues declined, with some issues rising or falling significantly [19] - Jin 05 Convertible Bond will start online subscription on December 25. Some convertible bonds announced early redemptions or were about to trigger early redemption conditions [25] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - On December 23, yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasuries narrowed by 3bp, and the 10 - year inflation - protected Treasury (TIPS) break - even inflation rate rose by 1bp [22][23][24] - Yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally fell [26] - The prices of some Chinese - funded U.S. dollar bonds changed. The top 10 gainers and losers had different price movements [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 24, 2025, the demand for cross - year funds increased, leading to a structural differentiation in the capital market. The bond market fluctuated and consolidated, while the convertible bond market's major indices rose collectively, with most individual convertible bonds posting gains. Yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined, and the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The 4th quarter (111th in total) regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in 2025 was held on December 18. It proposed to leverage the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, maintain ample liquidity, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [3]. - On December 24, the central bank announced a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on December 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan after considering the maturity of 300 billion yuan of MLF this month [4]. - Multiple departments jointly issued the "Opinions on Financial Support for Accelerating the Construction of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor", proposing 21 key measures to support its high - quality development [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce released the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", with a total of 1679 items, a net increase of 205 items compared to the 2022 edition [5]. - Beijing optimized and adjusted housing purchase restriction policies on December 24, reducing the social security or tax payment requirements and allowing multi - child families to buy an additional property within the 5th Ring Road [6]. - **International News** - On December 24, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 fell to 214,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 13 was 1.923 million. Consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months [7]. - **Commodities** - On December 24, international crude oil and natural gas futures prices declined. WTI February crude futures fell 0.05% to $58.35 per barrel, Brent February crude futures fell 0.22% to $62.24 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.01% to $4,505.40 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 3.69% to $4.249 per ounce [8][9]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On December 24, the central bank conducted a 26 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 20.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 46.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [11]. - **Funding Rates** - On December 24, due to the increasing cross - year demand from institutions, the capital market showed a structural differentiation. DR001 dropped 0.69bp to 1.262%, and DR007 dropped 3.05bp to 1.380% [12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On December 24, affected by multiple rumors such as the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and bond purchases, the bond market fluctuated and consolidated. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016 remained unchanged at 1.8350%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250215 dropped 0.05bp to 1.8975% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Information on the tendering of 25 Discount Treasury Bond 82, 25 Discount Treasury Bond 81, and 25 Coupon Treasury Bond 25 is provided, including their terms, issuance scales, winning yields, and other data [15]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On December 24, the trading price of one industrial bond, "22 Vanke 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising more than 18% [15]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Various companies announced events such as debt defaults, debt restructurings, asset sales, and equity transfers. For example, Sunac China completed its comprehensive overseas debt restructuring, and Wanda's credit ratings were downgraded [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On December 24, the three major A - share stock indices rose collectively, and the convertible bond market also increased. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rose 0.71%, 0.75%, and 0.62% respectively [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On December 25, Jin 05 Convertible Bond started its online subscription, and on December 24, Tianneng Convertible Bond announced that it was about to trigger the condition for a downward revision of the conversion price [23]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On December 24, yields of U.S. Treasuries across various tenors generally declined. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1bp to 3.47%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 3bp to 4.15%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasuries both narrowed by 2bp [20][21]. - **European Bond Market** - On December 24, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed divergent trends. France's 10 - year government bond yield rose 1bp, Spain's dropped 1bp, and the UK's remained unchanged [24]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on December 24, price change information of various Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds is provided, including the daily and monthly changes in yields and prices of bonds issued by companies such as Longfor Group and Wanda [26].

LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变；资金面延续宽松，债市承压走弱 【内容摘要】12 月 22 日，资金面保持宽松态势；12 月 LPR 报价继续持稳，叠加股市上涨，债 市承压走弱；转债市场跟随权益市场延续上行，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍上 行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【LPR 连续 7 个月保持不变】12 月 22 日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.00%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.50%，均与上月持平，连续 7 个月保持不变。 【李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议】12 月 22 日，中 共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领 导小组会议，深入研究《纲要草案》编制工作。李强指出，目前《纲要草案》的编制已经有了 较好基础，下一步要集中力量、精益求精做好修改完善工作。要着眼于更好发挥规划引领作用， 紧紧围绕推动高质量发展这个主题来设定指标、安排政策、谋划项目，推动经济实现质的有效 提升和量的合理增长。 【关于地方政府债务风险问题整改，财政部、 ...

美国劳动力市场走弱、核心通胀超预期放缓，金价延续上涨 时间 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 2024 年 12 月 23 日 美国劳动力市场持续走弱，强化市场降息预期，带动金价延 续上涨。上周五（12 月 19 日），沪金主力期货价格较前周五 上涨 0.95%至 979.90 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前周 五上涨 0.90%至 4368.70 美元/盎司；现货方面，黄金 T+D 现 货价格上涨 1.14%至 975.82 元/克，伦敦金现货价格继续回升 0.97%至 4341.06 美元/盎司。具体来看，上周金价延续上涨， 一方面源于上周公布的美国 11 月非农失业率创四年来新高， 显示美国劳动力市场在持续降温，11 月核心 CPI 数据则超预 期放缓，强化了市场对未来美联储降息的预期，加之美元走弱， 均对金价形成有利支撑；另一方面，日本央行如期加息，但利 空提前消化，加息落地后，资金回归黄金中长期配置。 本周（12 月 22 日当周）金价料将偏强震荡。本周初国际金价 再度突破历史新高，一度突破 4500 美元/盎司，主要源于美国 11 月失业率再度印证劳动力市场走弱事实，令市 ...