Report Summary Core Views - Last week, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias, and the yield curve steepened and shifted downward. Despite the rise in the stock market and commodity prices and better-than-expected July trade data suppressing market sentiment, the bond market was supported by loose liquidity and the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements. The long - term yields declined overall, with the short - term yields falling more than the long - term ones [2]. - This week, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The better - than - expected July trade data shows export resilience, but low PPI and CPI data reflect insufficient aggregate demand. The upcoming July financial data is likely to show that the credit volume will not exceed expectations and the structure may be poor. The central bank still has a strong willingness to maintain liquidity, so the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. However, the "anti - involution" policy has improved market expectations and relieved some downward pressure on PPI. The recent good performance of the stock and commodity markets may continue to boost market risk appetite, attracting some funds out of the bond market and suppressing the bond market. Overall, the bond market is likely to continue to oscillate in the short term, with the 10 - year Treasury yield expected to range between 1.65% - 1.75% [2]. Market Review Last Week Secondary Market - The bond market was strongly oscillating last week, and long - term bond yields continued to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures' main contract rose 0.18% in the whole week. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.68bp compared with the previous Friday, and the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 2.28bp, with the term spread widening [3]. - On August 4, affected by the new VAT policy, the bond market continued to decline in the morning but was pressured and weakened in the afternoon due to the rebound of the stock and commodity markets. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose 0.24bp [3]. - On August 5, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.22bp [3]. - On August 6, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and rumors of large banks buying 7 - 8Y old bonds, the bond market oscillated with a positive bias. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 0.62bp [3]. - On August 7, the better - than - expected July trade data and the rising stock market pressured the bond market, but the central bank's announcement of the continuation of repurchase agreements in the afternoon released a positive signal, and the bond market recovered. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.05bp [3]. - On August 8, the stock market continued to rise, but the bond market oscillated with a positive bias supported by loose liquidity. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly declined, and the 10 - year Treasury yield fell slightly by 0.03bp [3]. Primary Market - Last week, 62 interest - rate bonds were issued, 30 less than the previous week. The issuance volume was 808.5 billion yuan, an increase of 136.1 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing was 595.9 billion yuan, an increase of 42.6 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds increased, while those of local government bonds decreased [11]. Important Events Last Week - July's foreign trade data exceeded expectations. In July 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, 1.3 percentage points higher than in June. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, 3.0 percentage points higher than in June. The increase in exports was mainly due to the low base in the same period last year and the "rush - to - export" and "re - export" effects caused by the changing US tariff policy. The increase in imports was due to the rebound of international commodity prices and the demand for imports in the export process [14]. - July's CPI and PPI continued to operate at a low level. In July, CPI was flat year - on - year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, mainly affected by the high base of vegetable and pork prices in the same period last year. PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with a 0.2 - percentage - point decline month - on - month, mainly due to the uncertainty in international trade, the decline in prices of some major export industrial products, and the impact of the real - estate market and electricity prices. However, the "anti - involution" policy improved the prices of domestic - dominated industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium - battery, alleviating the decline of PPI [14][15]. Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency data on the production side showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants and the daily average molten - iron output decreased. The semi - steel tire operating rate was basically the same as the previous week [16]. - On the demand side, the BDI index rebounded slightly, while the CCFI continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly [16]. - In terms of prices, pork prices fluctuated and decreased slightly, while most commodity prices rose. Rebar and copper prices increased, and crude - oil prices declined [16]. Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net capital withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [27]. - The half - year national - share direct - discount rate decreased, and the volume of pledged repurchase transactions continued to increase. The R007 and DR007 both increased slightly, and the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks fluctuated upward. The inter - bank market leverage ratio decreased slightly [28][29][30].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints On August 8, the capital market showed a stable and slightly loose trend. The bond market oscillated strongly, the convertible bond market continued to rise slightly, and most convertible bond issues increased. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies also generally increased [1]. Section Summaries 1. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline remaining the same as in June [3]. - In July, the China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index was 89.0, remaining the same as the previous month. Among the sub - indices, the capital index and investment index increased by 0.2 and 0.1 points respectively [4]. - Trust companies are prohibited from conducting trust business that essentially provides financing for a single financing party, which will have a significant impact on non - standard businesses [4]. - Two standard baskets of science and technology innovation bonds were launched for trading, helping to improve the liquidity of science and technology innovation bonds in the inter - bank market [5]. - **International News** - The Trump administration has unexpectedly expanded the list of candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman to about 10 people, which may ease market concerns about the politicization of the Federal Reserve [6]. - **Commodities** - On August 8, WTI September crude oil futures closed flat at $63.88 per barrel, down about 5.1% for the week. Brent September crude oil futures rose 0.24% to $66.59 per barrel, down about 4.4% for the week. COMEX December gold futures rose about 1.1%, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 2.79% to $2.996 per ounce [7]. 2. Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On August 8, the central bank conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 126 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan [9]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On August 8, the capital market remained stable and slightly loose. DR001 decreased by 0.35bp to 1.312%, and DR007 decreased by 2.64bp to 1.425% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 8, the bond market oscillated strongly. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.35bp to 1.6910%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 remained flat at 1.7900% [12]. - **Bond Tendering** - The 25 - attached Treasury Bond 07 (Continued 3) with a term of 0.74 years had an issue size of 126 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6052%, a full - field multiple of 3.38, and a marginal multiple of 6.22. The 25 - ultra - long Special Treasury Bond 05 (Continued 2) with a 30 - year term had an issue size of 82 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.9576%, a full - field multiple of 3.6, and a marginal multiple of 1.76 [14]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 8, the trading price of one urban investment bond, "H8 Longkong 05", deviated by more than 10%, falling by more than 60% [14]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Three bonds of Sunac Real Estate, such as "H Sunac 07", will resume trading on August 11, and a total of 3.3 billion yuan of bonds have been cancelled [15]. - The bond "H22 Futong 1" of Futong Group, originally due on August 8, has been given a 20 - day grace period by bondholders [15]. - Due to a bond trading dispute with Junkang Life Insurance, the equity of 9 companies held by Fanhai Holdings has been frozen [15]. - Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group decided to re - issue the "25 Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group SCP003 (Science and Technology Innovation Bond)" at an appropriate time due to market fluctuations [15]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 8, the three major A - share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index fell 0.12%, 0.26%, and 0.38% respectively, with a full - day trading volume of 1.74 trillion yuan [17]. - The main convertible bond market indices closed up. The China Bond Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.15% respectively, with a trading volume of 86.236 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.605 billion yuan from the previous trading day [17]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On August 8, Changhong Convertible Bond, Leizhi Convertible Bond, Huayang Convertible Bond, Kairun Convertible Bond, and Huahai Convertible Bond announced that the board of directors proposed to lower the conversion price [24]. - On August 8, Xince Convertible Bond and Longhua Convertible Bond announced early redemption, and Tianrun Convertible Bond and Gaoce Convertible Bond announced that they were about to trigger the early redemption condition [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities generally rose. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds rose 4bp to 3.76% and 4.27% respectively [21]. - The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 51bp, and the yield spread between 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed by 1bp to 101bp [22]. - The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.39% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 8, yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 4bp to 2.69%, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 5bp, 6bp, and 6bp respectively [25]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds** - As of the close on August 8, the prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of INDI 4 ½ 11/15/27 rose 5.3%, and the price of GRNLGR 5.9 02/12/25 fell 4.7 - 5.1% [27].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]

Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $329.22 billion, a decrease of $25.2 billion from the end of June, representing a decline of 0.76%[2] - The decline in reserves was primarily due to a 3.39% increase in the US dollar index, which led to a drop in the prices of non-dollar assets within the reserves[2] - The average monthly trading volume of foreign reserve assets from 2017 to 2024 was approximately $8.4 billion, accounting for 0.27% of the total reserves, indicating that changes in reserve balances are mainly influenced by exchange rate adjustments and asset price fluctuations[2] Gold Reserves - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7.396 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth[2] - The increase in gold reserves is driven by the need to optimize the international reserve structure, as the gold proportion in China's reserves is only 1.7%, significantly lower than the global average of around 15%[4] - The central bank's continued accumulation of gold is seen as a strategy to enhance the credibility of the sovereign currency and support the gradual internationalization of the renminbi[4]

Export Data - In July 2025, China's export value increased by 7.2% year-on-year, which is 1.3 percentage points higher than June[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.7% year-on-year, with the decline widening by 5.5 percentage points compared to June, contributing a 3.3 percentage point downward effect on overall export growth[4] - Exports to the EU, South Korea, and Taiwan grew by 9.2%, 4.6%, and 19.2% respectively, with significant increases of 1.7, 11.3, and 15.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] Import Data - In July 2025, China's import value increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 3.0 percentage points from June[6] - The month-on-month import value rose by 6.2%, significantly higher than the ten-year average of 1.8%[6] - Imports from the US decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.4 percentage points compared to June[6] Future Outlook - The forecast for August indicates a potential decline in export growth to around 4.0%, with expectations of further downward pressure due to high US tariffs and weakening "export rush" effects[5] - The recent trade agreements between the US and other economies may lead to increased tariffs, further suppressing global trade and impacting China's exports negatively[5] - The import growth momentum is expected to depend on domestic demand policies, with potential support from government measures in the latter part of the year[8]

Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic and social development, emphasizing the need for stable and flexible policies[5] - The government plans to allocate approximately 90% of the 90 billion yuan budget for childcare subsidies from the central finance[6] Market Trends - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 2.75 basis points to 1.7200%[16] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes, while the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2, surpassing expectations[8][9] Financial Market Performance - The bond market experienced a net cash injection of 158.5 billion yuan on July 30, following a 3,090 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by the central bank[12] - The weighted average interest rates for various repo transactions showed a downward trend, with DR001 and DR007 rates falling to 1.315% and 1.518%, respectively[13][14] Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, while natural gas prices fell by 1.89% to $3.016 per MMBtu[10] Bond Issuance and Trading - The bond auction results indicated a competitive bidding environment, with the 1-year agricultural development bond receiving a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.3[18] - The convertible bond market saw a decline, with major indices dropping, and a total trading volume of 84.376 billion yuan, down by 5.53 billion yuan from the previous day[24]

Report Overview - The report is a gold weekly report covering the period from July 28, 2025, to August 3, 2025, analyzing the gold market's performance and influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US job market unexpectedly cooled, leading to a significant rebound in the outer - market gold price. The international gold price first declined and then rose, showing an overall obvious increase. This week, the gold price is expected to fluctuate upwards [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 1, the Shanghai gold futures price closed at 770.72 yuan/gram, down 0.85% from the previous week; the COMEX gold futures price closed at $3416/ounce, up 2.41%. The gold T + D spot price closed at 767.18 yuan/gram, down 0.77%, and the London gold spot price closed at $3362.64/ounce, up 0.79% [5][8] 1.2 Gold Basis - On August 1, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was - $13.25/ounce, down $27.65 from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was - 0.26 yuan/gram, up 0.83 yuan from the previous week [9] 1.3 Gold Inner - Outer Disk Spread - The gold inner - outer disk spread fell significantly to - 17.48 yuan/gram. The gold - to - oil ratio decreased slightly, the gold - to - silver ratio increased significantly, and the gold - to - copper ratio rose significantly [12] 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. The global largest SPRD gold ETF fund holdings were 953.08 tons, down 4.01 tons. The domestic gold T + D cumulative trading volume decreased by 31.31%. In terms of futures positions, as of July 29, the net long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased significantly. The COMEX gold futures inventory and the SHFE gold inventory increased [16] 2. Macro - fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - The US Treasury's borrowing expectation for the third quarter exceeded $1 trillion. The US June JOLTS job openings were lower than expected, and the new hires decreased significantly. The US important housing price index fell for three consecutive months. The US second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate was better than expected, but the core PCE price index was higher than expected. Japan's central bank maintained the interest rate and raised the inflation forecast. The US July non - farm payrolls were far lower than expected [21][22][23][24][25][26][27] 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - In July, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Powell cooled the market's expectation of a September rate cut. Some Fed officials believed the labor market was still stable, and inflation was the main concern [38][39][40] 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, with a slight increase of 1.04% to 97.67 [41] 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated downward, down 6bp to 1.90% [42] 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - The Middle East and the Russia - Ukraine situation were at a stalemate, which may increase market risk aversion [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 30, the central bank conducted continuous net injections, leading to a balanced and slightly loose liquidity situation. The bond market showed a significant recovery, while the main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, with most individual convertible bonds declining. Yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and yields of 10-year government bonds in major European economies also mostly rose [1]. Summaries by Directory I. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and taking measures in multiple aspects such as supporting innovation, consumption, and resolving local government debt risks [3]. - The CPC Central Committee held a symposium with non - Communist Party personages, with General Secretary Xi Jinping stressing the need to adhere to the general principle of making progress while maintaining stability in the second half of the year, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [4]. - The central government plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for child - rearing subsidies this year, with the central finance bearing about 90% of the funds for the national basic standard [4][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission solicited public opinions on guiding the layout and investment of government investment funds to prevent homogenization and crowding - out effects [5]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued a notice to regulate the book - building issuance and underwriting in the inter - bank bond market from August 11, 2025 [6]. (2) International News - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Some members advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and Fed Chairman Powell dampened market expectations of a September rate cut [7]. - The U.S. Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate was 3%, reversing the Q1 decline and exceeding expectations. The core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous value but higher than expected. However, there are concerns about the economic recovery, such as weakening domestic demand [9]. (3) Commodities - On July 30, international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, while international natural gas prices continued to fall. WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.47% to $73.47 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 1.72% to $3266.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.89% to $3.016 per ounce [10]. II. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations - On July 30, the central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net injection was 158.5 billion yuan [12]. (2) Funding Rates - Due to continuous net injections by the central bank on July 30, the liquidity was balanced and slightly loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. For example, DR001 dropped 4.81bp to 1.315%, and DR007 dropped 4.67bp to 1.518% [13]. III. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: After the Political Bureau meeting on July 30, the bond market recovered significantly. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 dropped 2.75bp to 1.7200%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active bond 250210 dropped 3.25bp to 1.8040% [16]. - **Bond Tendering Results**: Details of the tendering results of several agricultural bonds, including the issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples, were provided [17]. (2) Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 30, the trading price of one industrial bond, "H0 Yangcheng 04", deviated by more than 10%, rising over 747% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as asset freezes of some companies, changes in credit ratings, and cancellations of bond issuances [18]. (3) Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 30, the A - share market weakened in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell 0.77% and 1.62% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed down collectively, and most individual convertible bonds declined [20]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Companies such as Hang Lung Properties reported their performance, and there were announcements regarding bond payments, revisions of conversion prices, and decisions on early redemptions [23][24][25]. (4) Overseas Bond Markets - **U.S. Bond Market**: On July 30, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 8bp to 3.94%, and the 10 - year yield rose 4bp to 4.38%. The yield spreads between 2 - year and 10 - year, and 5 - year and 30 - year U.S. Treasury bonds narrowed [26][27]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 30, the 10 - year UK government bond yield dropped 4bp, while yields of 10 - year government bonds in other major European economies mostly rose [29]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of Chinese - issued dollar bonds as of July 30 were presented, including the price changes, credit entities, bond codes, and other information of top - rising and top - falling bonds [31].

Economic Indicators - China's manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector[5] - Non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion[5] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 283.2 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% on July 31, resulting in a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan for the day[11] - Despite the net withdrawal, the overall funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose, with DR001 and DR007 rates rising to 1.396% and 1.554%, respectively[12] Bond Market Dynamics - In June, the bond market issued a total of 87,939.5 billion yuan in various bonds, with government bonds accounting for 15,903.9 billion yuan and corporate credit bonds for 14,257.3 billion yuan[6] - On July 31, the yield on the 10-year government bond decreased by 1.45 basis points to 1.7055%[15] International Economic Developments - The U.S. core PCE price index for June rose to 2.8%, the highest level in four months, while real consumer spending only increased by 0.1%[7] - The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.5% and raised its inflation forecast for the next two fiscal years, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid global economic uncertainties[8] Commodity Market Trends - International crude oil prices saw a decline, with WTI September futures down 1.06% to $69.26 per barrel, while natural gas prices increased by 2.79% to $3.100 per MMBtu[9] Stock Market Performance - On July 31, major A-share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18%, and the total trading volume reached 1.96 trillion yuan[20] - The convertible bond market also declined, with major indices down approximately 0.92%[20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 1, after the month - end, the money market was abundant with major repo rates declining. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally decreased, and the convertible bond market rebounded. The yields of US Treasury bonds across different maturities dropped significantly, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - From August 8, 2025 (inclusive), the VAT on the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be restored. Natural persons buying treasury bonds with a monthly limit of no more than 100,000 yuan will enjoy the VAT exemption on interest income until December 31, 2027 [3] - The central bank will use the re - loan policy for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation to promote the rapid growth of loans to science - and - technology small and medium - sized enterprises. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will optimize and improve the fund management of domestic enterprises' overseas listings [4] - As of August 1, 800 billion yuan of this year's "Two Major" construction project list has been fully allocated, and 69 billion yuan of the third - batch ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds for consumer goods trade - in have been allocated, with the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan to be allocated in October. The issuance progress of this year's ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has exceeded 60% [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance reported six typical cases of local government implicit debt accountability, requiring local governments to prevent and resolve implicit debt risks [7] - New policy - based financial instruments are expected to be launched soon, and infrastructure investment is expected to pick up in the second half of the year [8] 3.1.2 International News - In July, the non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was significantly revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [9] - Two Fed officials said the labor market remained robust, and inflation was still the main consideration for policy - making [10] - On August 1, international crude oil futures prices continued to fall, and international natural gas prices declined slightly [11] 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On August 1, the central bank conducted 126 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan due to the maturity of 789.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases [13] 3.2.2 Funding Rates - On August 1, despite the large - scale net withdrawal by the central bank, the money market was abundant after the month - end, and major repo rates declined. DR001 dropped 8.18bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 13bp to 1.424% [14] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Spot Bond Yield Trends**: On August 1, affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market fluctuated narrowly in the morning. After the Ministry of Finance announced the VAT on new treasury bonds in the afternoon, the bond market recovered. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined, with long - term bonds showing larger fluctuations [16] - **Bond Tendering**: The tendering information of 25进出清发02 (Additional Issue 1), 25附息国债12 (Second Continued Issue), and 25超长特别国债03 (Continued Issue) was provided [18] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - **Secondary Market Transaction Abnormalities**: On August 1, no credit bond transaction price deviated by more than 10% [18] - **Credit Bond Events**: Various credit - related events of companies such as Qingdao Huangdao Development, Zhejiang Xinchang Investment and Development were reported [20] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes**: On August 1, the three major A - share stock indexes fell, while the main convertible bond indexes rose. The convertible bond market rebounded, with most individual bonds rising [19] - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Information on the approval of convertible bond issuance by companies such as Jinlang Technology and the expected trigger of conversion price downward adjustment and early redemption of some convertible bonds was reported [27] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - **US Bond Market**: On August 1, due to the weak non - farm data and significant downward revision of the previous value, the yields of US Treasury bonds across different maturities declined significantly. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury bonds and that between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds widened [23][25] - **European Bond Market**: On August 1, the yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed a divergent trend [28] - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - funded US Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of the top 10 Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with the largest gains and losses were reported [30]