Export Performance - In April 2025, China's export value increased by 8.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 4.3 percentage points compared to March[2] - Exports to the US fell by 21.0% year-on-year, a decline of 30.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - The overall export growth was supported by a "grab export" phenomenon to markets outside the US, with ASEAN exports rising by 20.8%[4] Import Trends - In April 2025, China's import value decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 4.1 percentage points from March[7] - Imports from the US dropped by 13.8%, with the decline expanding by 4.4 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Significant increases in imports from non-US economies, such as a 2.5% rise from Japan and a 7.3% increase from South Korea, were noted[8] Future Outlook - The impact of the tariff war is expected to intensify, with May exports potentially turning negative, particularly a forecasted 60% decline in exports to the US[5] - Domestic support for foreign trade enterprises will increase, focusing on diversifying international markets and enhancing domestic sales platforms[6] - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49% in April, indicating contraction, with expectations of further declines in imports and overall trade performance in May[10]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 4 月 29 日 关税预期进一步放缓，金价明显回调 黄金周报（2025.4.21-2025.4.27） 核心观点 关税预期进一步放缓，避险情绪回落，叠加多头获利了结， 上周金价有所回调。上周五（4 月 25 日），沪金主力期货价格 较前周五下跌 0.48%至 787.20 元/克，黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 0.29%至 784.93 元/克；上周五，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前 周四（4 月 17 日）下跌 0.33%至 3330.20 美元/盎司；伦敦金 现货价格较前周四下跌 0.24%至 3318.76 美元/盎司。具体来 看，随着金价上行至历史高位区间，市场恐高情绪引发部分资 金获利了结，进而导致金价下跌。同时，美国财长贝森特暗示 中美贸易紧张局势有望很快缓解，加之特朗普表示无意解雇美 联储主席鲍威尔，带动市场风险偏好回升，美元指数有所反弹， 对金价造成一定压制。整体上看，受市场关税预期进一步缓和、 避险情绪回落以及资金获利了结影响，上周金价明显回调。 本周（4 月 28 日当周）黄金价格或将震荡调整。近期金价冲 上历史高 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On April 27, the overall capital market was balanced, with a slight increase in capital prices. The bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations due to light trading on the make - up working day [1]. - The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in Q1 2025 turned from a decline to an increase, and the revenue growth rate continued to accelerate, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - In Q1 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned from a year - on - year decline of 3.3% in the previous year to an increase of 0.8%. In March, the profit growth rate was 2.6%, up from a 0.3% decline from January to February. The revenue growth rate also continued to accelerate [3]. - Six departments issued a notice to optimize the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers, aiming to boost inbound consumption [4]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng called on the IMF to adjust share ratios to increase the representation of emerging markets and developing countries [4]. - In Q1 2025, 30 private enterprises in the inter - bank market issued over 60 billion yuan of debt financing instruments to support new productive forces [5]. - "Second - to - first - home" mortgage borrowers meeting relevant conditions can enjoy special additional deductions for housing loan interest [6]. 3.2 Capital Market - **Open Market Operations** - On April 27, the central bank conducted 90 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.50%, with a net capital injection of 90 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [8]. - **Capital Interest Rates** - On April 27, the capital market was balanced, but capital prices rose slightly. DR001 rose 2.67bp to 1.608%, and DR007 rose 7.72bp to 1.713% [9]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - On April 27, the bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations due to light trading. The yields of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250004 and the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250205 remained unchanged [12]. - There were no treasury bond or CDB bond issuances on that day [13]. - **Credit Bonds** - Credit bond events include announcements from various companies such as non - downward revision of conversion prices, inability to disclose financial statements on time, cancellation of bond issuances, and changes in financial performance [15][16]. - **Convertible Bonds** - On April 27, Guanglian Convertible Bond announced no downward revision of the conversion price and would not choose to revise it downward in the next 6 months if the downward - revision clause is triggered again [15].

东方金诚宏观研究 东方金诚宏观研究 一季度财政收入表现偏弱，财政支出力度大幅提升 —— 2025 年 3 月财政数据点评 分析师：瞿瑞 冯琳 事件：财政部公布数据显示，2025 年 3 月，全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.3%， 1-2 月为下降 1.6%；3 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增长 5.7%，1-2 月为增长 3.4%；1-3 月全国政府性基金收入累计同比下降 11.0%，1-2 月为下降 10.7%；1-3 月全国政府性基金 支出累计同比增长 11.1%，1-2 月为增长 1.2%。 主要观点：尽管 3 月当月财政收入增速有所改善，但一季度财政收入端整体表现仍偏 弱，其中，一般公共预算收入累计同比下降 1.1%，低于去年全年累计增速；一季度政府性 基金收入同比下降 11.0%，主要受国有土地出让金收入同比降幅扩大拖累，背后是土地市 场持续低迷。从支出端来看，一季度广义财政支出累计同比增长 10.1%，其中，一般公共 预算支出同比增长 4.2%，主要源于今年年初政府债券发行提速，充实了可用财政资金。同 时，今年一季度新增专项债发行量同比高增，加之土地出让收入安排的支出同比降幅收窄， 拉动政府性基金 ...

资金面快速转松；特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，债市小幅调整 【内容摘要】4 月 23 日，资金面快速转松，主要回购利率大幅下行；债市小幅调整；转债市 场继续上涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【上金所：调整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板】4 月 23 日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于调 整部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》，对黄金延期品种与白银延期合约交易保证金水平 和涨跌停板比例进行调整。自 2025 年 4 月 25 日（星期五）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu （T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12 等合约的保证金水平从 12%调整为 13%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 11%调整为 12%；Ag（T+D）合约的保证金水平从 15%调整 为 16%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 14%调整为 15%。 【全国首单集体经济类 REITs 项目获批，规模 4.5 亿元】日前，以娄葑街道集体经济载体为 底层资产的"华金-元联-娄葑街道联创产业园资产支持专项计划"正 ...

4 月 LPR 报价维持不变；资金面边际收敛，债市有所调整 【内容摘要】4 月 21 日，资金面边际收敛，主要回购利率均上行；债市有所调整；转债市场 主要指数跟随收涨，转债个券多数上涨；海外方面，各期限美债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【4 月 LPR 报价出炉：5 年期和 1 年期利率均维持不变】4 月 21 日，央行授权全国银行间同业 拆借中心公布，1 年期 LPR 为 3.1%，5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.6%，连续 6 个月维持不变。业内人士 表示，虽然近来多家银行密集下调存款利率，为 LPR 下行创造了一定空间，但鉴于当前 LPR 的 定价"锚"仍维持稳定，且息差及汇率等内外部影响因素仍存，LPR 持稳也符合预期。往后看， 二季度政策降息有望落地，届时将带动 LPR 下行。 【交易商协会发布《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引（试行）》】4 月 21 日，交易商 协会发布《银行间债券市场债券估值业务自律指引（试行）》。其中提到，现券做市商应增强 独立定价能力，在定价过程中减少对第三方估值的依赖，根据业务实际需要和市场状况开展报 价。鼓励估值产品用户选择多个估值产品，对估值结果开展 ...

Group 1: LPR Pricing Analysis - The April LPR remained unchanged at 3.10% for the 1-year term and 3.60% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations[4] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to unchanged policy rates and historically low bank net interest margins, reducing the incentive for banks to lower LPR[7] - The LPR has not changed since the beginning of the year, reflecting a strong economic performance in Q1, despite a shift in monetary policy towards moderate easing[7] Group 2: Future Expectations - A policy interest rate cut is anticipated in Q2, potentially leading to a 30 basis point reduction in LPR, similar to the total cut from the previous year[7] - This expected reduction in LPR is aimed at lowering financing costs for businesses and households, thereby stimulating consumption and investment to enhance domestic demand[7] - Future LPR adjustments may pressure banks' net interest margins, which will be mitigated by guiding deposit rates downwards and reducing funding costs[8]

财政部通知超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债即将发行；债市走弱， 银行间市场主要期限利率债收益率多数上行 【内容摘要】4 月 17 日，央行公开市场大额净投放，资金面整体宽松，主要回购利率下行； 但债市全线走弱，银行间市场主要期限利率债收益率多数上行；"H21 合景 1" 调整本息兑付 安排议案获通过，4 月 18 日开市起复牌；重庆金科地产的重整申请已被受理，但重庆金科普 通债权重整草案暂未通过；转债市场主要指数及多数个券收涨；海外方面，主要期限美债收益 率全线上行；欧央行降息 25 个基点，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【今年超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债即将发行】财政部 4 月 17 日对外发布多 则通知称，2025 年超长期特别国债、2025 年中央金融机构注资特别国债将于下周开始发行。 根据通知，财政部拟于 4 月 24 日发行 2025 年中央金融机构注资特别国债（一期）。本次发行 国债竞争性招标面值总额 1650 亿元，为 5 年期固定利率附息债。同日，财政部还拟发行 2025 年超长期特别国债（一期）（20 年期），竞争性招标面值 ...

东方金诚宏观研究 内需全面发力，一季度宏观经济实现"开门红" ——2025 年 3 月宏观数据点评 首席宏观分析师 王青 研究发展部执行总监 冯琳 事件：据国家统计局 2025 年 4 月 16 日公布的数据，2025 年一季度 GDP 同比增长 5.4%，增速与去年 四季度持平，较 2024 年全年增速加快 0.4 百分点，超出市场普遍预期；2025 年 3 月规模以上工业增加值 同比实际增长 7.7%，前值为 5.9%；一季度规模以上工业增加值累计同比实际增长 6.5%，2024 年全年累 计同比为 5.8%；3 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 5.9%，前值为 4.0%；一季度社会消费品零售总额累计 同比增长 4.6%，2024 年全年累计同比为 3.5%；2025 年 1-3 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.2%，前 值为 4.1%，2024 年全年累计同比增长 3.2%。 基本观点： 整体上看，受一揽子增量政策持续推进、外需保持较强韧性等带动，一季度宏观经济保持较强增长 动能，GDP 同比增速达到 5.4%，超出市场普遍预期。背后主要是一季度内需全面发力，成为推动经济实 现"开门红"的主要动力，同 ...