Monetary Policy Insights - The MLF operation scale in February was 500 billion, with an MLF maturity amount of 499 billion, indicating a slight increase in operations[2] - The MLF interest rate remained unchanged at 2.50%, consistent with the previous period, reflecting a cautious approach amid recent monetary policy adjustments[8] - The recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is expected to release over 1 trillion in funds, supporting credit growth and government bond issuance[2] Economic Indicators - The CPI in February showed a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, with a widening drop of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[9] - The PPI also declined by 2.5% year-on-year, although the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in industrial prices[9] Future Projections - There is a significant likelihood of MLF interest rate cuts in the short term, which would signal proactive growth policies and potentially lower financing costs for the real economy[5] - The anticipated adjustments in LPR rates, with a possible reduction of 5 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, could further ease borrowing costs for businesses and households[4] - The need for macroeconomic policy adjustments is heightened due to the ongoing contraction in manufacturing PMI, which has remained in the contraction zone for over three months[4]

1 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------| | | | | | ——美联储 1 月货币政策会议点评与展望 | | | 研究发展部分析师 白雪 李晓峰 | 美联储主席鲍威尔在当天会后举行的新闻发布会上表示，联邦基金利率很可能处于本轮紧缩周期 峰值。如果经济发展与预期大体一致，美联储将开始调整政策力度。但他同时表示，根据本次会议， 联邦公开市场委员会"不太可能在 3 月达到信心水平，并确定 3 月是采取行动（降息）的时机"。 一、整体来看，本次会议美联储政策立场转向中性。一方面，确定加息周期已经结束，暗示政策 将向正常化转向，为年内降息打下铺垫；另一方面，明确反驳了 3 月降息的可能性，表示降息并不具 备紧迫性。 2 我们认为，美联储这一政策立场背后的原因在于，一方面，自去年 12 月会议以来的经济与通胀 数据来看，通胀、经济延续下行的趋势较为确定，为年内降息打开了空间。通胀方面延续了温和降温 趋势，其中美联储看重的核心 PCE 通胀环比年化已经回落到 2%以下——3 个月环比年化为 1.5%，6 个 月环比年化为 1.9%，通胀 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI year-on-year decline expanded to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The significant drop in food prices contributed to the CPI decline, with vegetable prices falling by 13.2 percentage points year-on-year and fruit prices declining by 8.8 percentage points[19] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, maintained a stable positive growth of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating no deflationary trend despite four consecutive months of negative overall CPI growth[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline was recorded at -2.5% in January, a narrowing of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The PPI continued to show a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of such a trend[23] - Weak domestic demand and low prices for major commodities like steel, cement, and coal contributed to the ongoing PPI decline[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - February is expected to see a reversal of the Spring Festival effect, with CPI projected to recover to a growth rate of around 0.6%[17] - The annual CPI average is anticipated to rise from 0.2% in 2023 to approximately 1.3% in 2024, reducing deflation risks[17] - The PPI is expected to stabilize and potentially turn positive around mid-2024, driven by recovering international oil prices and improved domestic real estate investment[24]

Credit and Financing - In January 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 4.92 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2 billion, marking a historical monthly high[1] - The total social financing scale in January reached 6.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 506.1 billion, also a record high[1][15] - The structure of new social financing showed improvement, with government bond financing decreasing by 119.3 billion year-on-year, indicating a shift from a "government strong, enterprise weak" scenario[15][26] Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% year-on-year at the end of January, down 1 percentage point from the previous month[1][27] - The narrow money supply (M1) saw a significant increase of 5.9%, up 4.6 percentage points from the previous month, driven by the activation of corporate deposits before the Spring Festival[1][17] Economic Policy and Outlook - The continuous implementation of stable growth policies is aimed at reversing the contraction in the official manufacturing PMI index, which has been in a contraction zone for four consecutive months[12][26] - Future structural monetary policy tools will focus on supporting weak sectors of the economy, including small and micro enterprises, the real estate industry, and key areas like technological innovation and green development[8][26]