需求支撑矿价，震荡偏强运行 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年3月28日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 周度观点 ➢ 上周主要观点：日均铁水产量超预期回升到236万吨，但是需求的高频数据表现一般，市场总体还是担忧高供给能够持续的时间，加上前期铁 矿发运恢复，在钢材没有很强的需求表现下，矿缺乏上涨的驱动。但是当下铁水产量还是很高的，累库压力不大，预计铁矿震荡为主。 ➢ 本周走势分析：本周铁矿价格止跌反弹，本身铁矿需求尚可，日均铁水产量达到237万吨，钢厂在复产周期市场前期一直交易铁水见顶，但钢 厂在有利润背景下并无减产的迹象。 ➢ 本周主要观点：当下铁水背景下，铁矿供需并不宽松，且从五大材产量上并没有看到太明显的产量压力，预计废钢比低位，同时五大材外品种 分流铁水。短期钢材旺季需求还在回升，钢厂没有减产压力。供给端铁矿比较平稳，接下来到港压力也不大。预计下周铁矿价格震荡偏强运行。 • 1.发运环比有所回升； • 2.需求维持高位； • 3. ...

202503原油展望报告 短期供应有所收紧 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年3月28日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 2月主要观点：我们维持中长期偏空观点，短期的反弹主要来源于以上偏空因素的阶段性变化，尤其需 要关注的是OPEC+关于4月增产的最终决定。 行情回顾：由于OPEC+决定按原计划4月增产，以及美国的"特朗普衰退交易"令宏观情绪转弱，油价 在月度早期延续下跌走势并创下多年新低。不过随着OPEC+发布补偿性减产以及美国对伊朗、委内瑞 拉施加制裁，油价企稳反弹。 1.2 3月原油展望报告总结 3月主要观点： 01 回顾总结 02 原油市场分析 目录 CONTENTS 01 回顾总结 1.1 2月原油展望报告回顾 60 70 80 90 100 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/1 25/2 25/3 WTI 布伦特 阿曼 SC 基本面： OPEC+补偿性减产实际上令4月的增产变为减产 美国制裁进一步打压供应预期 二季度原油需求有望季节性增加 非基本面： 美联 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA report for the week is relatively bearish. Although the surface data that the market focuses on looks good, the actual situation is not as optimistic as it seems. There are signs of weakness on the demand side, mainly in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, and the sustainability of the weak jet fuel data also deserves attention. The extent to which the weak US demand can interfere with the oil price rebound momentum remains to be seen [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of March 21, US commercial crude oil inventories were 433.627 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.341 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 755,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 286,000 barrels [2][3]. - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.446 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 421,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels [2]. - US total crude oil chain inventories increased by 3.478 million barrels. US crude oil production was stable at 13.574 million barrels per day, net imports increased by 845,000 barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 401,250 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 47,250 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 115,250 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 29,250 barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, US crude oil and major refined oil inventories decreased, with crude oil inventory decline exceeding expectations. The refinery utilization rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 87%, still in a low range, indicating ongoing maintenance [4]. - The overall US inventory increased, mainly in jet fuel and other petrochemical - based inventories. There were few positive factors other than the decline in major inventory indicators [4]. - In the refined oil market, distillate demand continued to decline, consistent with the recent weak manufacturing data. Other inventories mainly composed of petrochemicals increased significantly, indicating weak industrial demand. Jet fuel single - week demand dropped sharply to a one - year low, but the four - week smoothed data was acceptable, likely due to short - term sales fluctuations at refineries [6]. Market Reaction - This week's EIA report is relatively bearish. Although the surface data that the market focuses on is good, such as the larger - than - expected decline in crude oil inventories and the decline in major refined oil inventories, which briefly pushed up oil prices after the report was released, the weak demand - side data led to a subsequent price correction [8]. - The weak demand in the US, especially in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, and the sustainability of weak jet fuel data are concerning. The impact of weak US demand on the oil price rebound momentum under the background of market speculation on supply - side variables remains to be observed [8].