Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report is slightly bearish on the oil market [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The large increase in US commercial crude oil inventories was mainly due to import - export disturbances, with high domestic refinery operating rates but weak overseas demand [4][8] - Gasoline demand this year has been disappointing, reflecting concerning macro - economic implications despite low retail prices [6][8] - The continuous increase in distillate inventories is beneficial for alleviating the strong distillate cracking situation but is not good news for oil prices [6][8] - Recent oil prices have remained strong due to factors such as Trump's ultimatum to Russia, smooth trade negotiations, and better - than - expected Q2 economic data, and the EIA report cannot reverse the positive market sentiment [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Data Crude Oil Inventory - As of July 25, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426,691 thousand barrels, a sharp increase of 7,698 thousand barrels from the previous week, contrary to the expected decrease of 1,100 thousand barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels; strategic reserve inventory increased by 238 thousand barrels [2][3] Product Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2,724 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600 thousand barrels; distillate inventory increased by 3,635 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 300 thousand barrels [2][3] Production and Consumption - US crude oil production increased by 41 thousand barrels per day to 13,314 thousand barrels per day; net imports increased by 1,317 thousand barrels per day to 3,438 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 25 thousand barrels per day to 16,911 thousand barrels per day [3] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 225 thousand barrels per day to 20,801 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 128 thousand barrels per day to 8,941.75 thousand barrels per day; distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 109.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,509.75 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 89.75 thousand barrels per day to 1,831.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Refinery and Demand - The refinery operating rate decreased 0.1% to 95.4% [4] - Total terminal demand for refined oil increased slightly by 1%, but gasoline demand was still lower than last year and the 5 - year average affected by the COVID - 19 period [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week's view: Affected by the capital side and rainfall, asphalt demand was mainly for immediate needs, with little chance of exceeding expectations. Currently, refinery operations are average, some Sinopec refineries have lowered prices, and most actual market transactions are for low - priced supplies. It was expected that asphalt prices would fluctuate overall, and influenced by the cost side, the center might be slightly stronger, but the upside potential was limited [7]. - This week's price movement: This week, asphalt prices fluctuated within a narrow range, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. After the reduction of refinery inventories, they were at a low level compared to the same period. The reduction rate of social inventories was slow. After entering the peak season, the reduction rate of social inventories would restrict the upside space of asphalt prices [7]. - This week's view: The anti - involution trend has little impact on the cost - side crude oil. Asphalt demand remains mainly for immediate needs and is restricted by capital, so it is difficult to exceed expectations. Weekly refinery operations decreased, but a slight rebound is expected next week. Although refinery inventories are currently at a low level, the continuous lack of reduction in social inventories may restrict the overall upside space. It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate overall, mainly following the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's prediction was that asphalt would be range - bound with a slightly upward - biased center due to cost, but limited upside. This week, asphalt followed crude oil in a narrow - range fluctuation. Current industry data shows reduced supply and increased demand at refineries, low refinery inventories, and slow - moving social inventories. The current view is that asphalt will continue to fluctuate following the cost side, with upside limited by non - declining social inventories [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - Graphs present asphalt futures trends, including the price of the main contract, spreads between September and December contracts, and basis in East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - Graphs show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, with data from Steel Union Data [13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption, using data from Steel Union Data [16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Graphs illustrate asphalt import and export volumes, as well as import windows in East and South China, with data from Steel Union Data [19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, with data from Steel Union Data [22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs present the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong, with data from Steel Union Data [25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China, with data from Steel Union Data [28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs display the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China, with data from Steel Union Data [31][32]. 3.2.9 Refinery Maintenance - A table lists refineries with maintenance, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, capacity, start time, and end time of maintenance. The total annual capacity of these refineries is 2016 tons, and the maintenance loss is 641,500 tons [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data of US commercial crude oil inventory decline is favorable, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at the peak of the year, which makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.993 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels [2]. - In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2]. - US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year, with a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day. US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day, and crude oil processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3]. - The terminal apparent demand for US crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 314,250 barrels per day to 20.576 million barrels per day, while the apparent demand for gasoline (four - week smoothing) decreased by 180,250 barrels per day to 8.81375 million barrels per day, and the apparent demand for distillate oil (four - week smoothing) decreased by 112,750 barrels per day to 3.61925 million barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, the decline of US commercial crude oil exceeded expectations. The continuous decline of weekly crude oil production, the high operating rate of downstream refineries (increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%), and the continuous rebound of weekly crude oil exports all contributed to the inventory decline. However, the increase in refinery operating rate was partly due to the withdrawal of refinery capacity last week, and the increase in US crude oil processing volume was only 87,000 barrels per day [4]. - In terms of refined oil, although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil decreased. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's gasoline demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the level of the 2020 COVID - 19 year, which may break the high operating rate of refineries through cracking conduction [6]. - Although the EIA report's surface data is favorable due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the weak terminal refined oil demand makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful. After the report was released, the oil price had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of the northern hemisphere's consumption season can still support the market to some extent, resisting the pressure of increased supply. Coupled with many short - term supply disturbances in the market, oil prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. However, the consumption season has reached its peak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of US gasoline demand. After that, the supply pressure will gradually increase, and the upside space is limited [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views - **Last week's view**: The northern hemisphere's consumption season can support the market to resist supply pressure, but the upside space is limited as the consumption season is at its peak [7]. - **This week's trend analysis**: At the beginning of the week, potential Russian supply disturbances briefly strengthened oil prices, but Trump's statement dispelled short - term risks, and prices gave back previous gains. Despite poor US gasoline data, traditional consumption seasons and Iraqi supply disturbances kept weekly oil prices in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. - **Analysis of fundamentals**: The month - spread is firm, diesel leads the crack spread, and US gasoline demand data is cold. Major institutions' monthly reports maintain the expectation of increased inventory but have differences on future demand trends. There are multiple supply disturbances such as EU sanctions on Russia, Trump promoting a Russian agreement, and damaged production in the Iraqi Kurdish region [7]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **Near - month spreads**: After the disturbance of the Middle - East conflict ended, the month - spreads remained firm, indicating tight physical supply and demand. The month - spread of Middle - East Oman crude was stronger and affected the internal SC month - spread [9][11]. - **Diesel crack**: Globally, the crack spread maintained an oscillating or strengthening trend. Diesel crack led the market, and the 211 crack spread (with 1/2 diesel) was stronger than the 321 crack spread (with 1/3 diesel) in all regional markets, suggesting the continuation of strong market conditions [14]. - **US gasoline demand**: As of July 11, US crude inventories decreased unexpectedly, but refined product inventories increased unexpectedly. The refinery operating rate decreased slightly to 93.9%. US weekly crude exports contributed to the inventory decline. Gasoline demand after four - week smoothing decreased by more than 2 million barrels per day, but previous data were good, and further tracking is needed [16]. - **Global diesel inventory**: Diesel inventories in major consumer countries like the US and China are at multi - year lows. The long - term production contraction of Saudi Arabia and Russia has led to global crude oil lightening and supported diesel crack spreads [19]. - **Main energy institutions' July reports**: IEA, OPEC, and EIA's July reports showed no significant adjustment to demand, but IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations. There are differences in their expectations for the future. EIA's balance sheet shows relative balance in the third quarter and inventory surpluses in the following quarters [20]. - **OPEC+ balance sheet**: OPEC's July report predicts an increase in global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day each year. It maintains the global economic growth forecast [22]. - **OPEC+ 8 - country production**: Excluding Kazakhstan, the other 7 OPEC+ countries well - executed production plans in June. Saudi Arabia may use a new calculation standard to report production, which is seen as evidence that OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia tends to compete for market share. There are rumors of a potential 548,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [25]. - **Supply disturbances**: EU sanctions on Russia have limited direct impact on Russian oil. Trump's threat of tariffs poses a risk after 50 days. Drone attacks in the Iraqi Kurdish region reduced oil production by 140,000 - 150,000 barrels per day, which can boost oil prices but has limited upside potential [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, there is a 60% chance of above - average hurricane activity this year, which is relatively calmer than last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the US Gulf, and the probability of cyclone formation in the next 7 days is less than 40%, but the predicted location is close to platforms and refineries [29]. 3. Price, Spread, and Crack - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: The report presents various charts of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different regions and benchmarks [32]. - **Brent and WTI crude oil positions**: Charts show the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure**: Displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil [40]. - **Crude oil month - spread**: Presents the month - spread trends of different crude oils over time [43]. - **Cross - market futures and spot spreads**: Analyzes cross - market futures and spot spreads of different crude oils [46][49]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia has adjusted the official selling prices of different grades of crude oil to different regions in August compared to July [56]. - **Refined product prices and crack spreads**: Covers the prices and crack spreads of refined products in futures and spot markets in different regions [61][63][66][69]. 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global supply**: Includes the supply of non - OPEC, OPEC, and the total global crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries [82][85][88]. - **Global demand**: Covers the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries and regions [106]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes inventories in different regions such as the US, OECD, Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China [115][118][120]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows that the global crude oil market will have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [136]. - **OPEC balance sheet**: OPEC's balance sheet predicts global oil demand and non - OPEC+ supply in 2025 and 2026, and calculates the required OPEC+ crude oil supply for balance [140][142][145]. - **OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage**: Provides data on OECD's land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, consumption days, and floating storage [147]. 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: Presents data on US crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude - chain inventory [151]. - **Supply data**: Includes the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel [154].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA weekly data report with the summary that refined oil inventories have significantly increased and terminal demand data has cooled down [1] Group 2: Main Data - As of July 11, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 422,162 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 385.9 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 55.2 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 21.3 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 30 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory increased by 339.9 thousand barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 100 thousand barrels. Distillate oil inventory increased by 417.3 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 20 thousand barrels [2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 10 thousand barrels per day to 13,375 thousand barrels per day; net imports decreased by 395 thousand barrels per day to 2,861 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 157 thousand barrels per day to 16,849 thousand barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 301.75 thousand barrels per day to 20,261.75 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand decreased by 202.5 thousand barrels per day to 8,994 thousand barrels per day; distillate oil apparent demand decreased by 80.75 thousand barrels per day to 3,732 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 46.75 thousand barrels per day to 1,748 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Comments - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil decreased more than expected. The weekly refinery operating rate decreased by 0.8% to 93.9% but remained at a high level. The continuous recovery of U.S. weekly crude oil exports from the previous low also contributed to the inventory decline [4] - In terms of refined oil, this week's data was disappointing. The apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil both decreased, with the four - week smoothed gasoline demand dropping by over 200 thousand barrels per day. During the traditional consumption peak season after July 4th, the data was unexpectedly poor, indicating that refueling at gas stations did not increase the stocking demand from refineries. The gasoline demand curve has significantly deviated from the same period last year and is at a low level. With refineries operating at high rates, the significant increase in refined oil inventories will gradually affect upstream operations through a decline in cracking margins [6] Group 4: Market Impact and Outlook - This week's EIA report was relatively bearish. Although the most important commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, the terminal data was lackluster, especially the weak gasoline demand during the traditional driving peak season. After the report was released, oil prices briefly declined but then stabilized and rebounded, remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. Despite this week's poor data, the Northern Hemisphere is still in the consumption peak season, and the gasoline demand data in the previous three weeks was good. The market cannot form a one - sided downward trend based on a single week's poor high - frequency data, which requires the accumulation of more bearish factors [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA further strengthened the degree of supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year in its July report. Supply is expected to increase significantly, while demand changes little, leading to a continuous downward pressure on oil prices. Uncertainties mainly come from geopolitical situations and OPEC+ production compliance [9]. - OPEC's July report shows that global oil demand is expected to continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. Non-OECD countries are the main drivers of demand growth. Non-OPEC+ supply is also expected to increase, and OPEC+ needs to adjust production to achieve supply - demand balance [47][48]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 EIA 3.1.1 EIA Balance Sheet - EIA predicts that the global crude oil supply will exceed demand in each quarter of 2025 and 2026. The supply surplus in Q4 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 is the most severe, reaching 1.07 million, 1.76 million, and 1.07 million barrels per day respectively. The average annual supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 will increase from 820,000 barrels per day and 550,000 barrels per day to 1.06 million barrels per day and 1.13 million barrels per day respectively [9]. 3.1.2 Brent Oil Price Forecast - EIA expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $69 per barrel (previously $66), and to further drop to $58 per barrel in 2026 (previously $59). Although the conflict brings geopolitical risk premiums, increasing inventory will put continuous downward pressure on oil prices [10]. 3.1.3 Global Liquid Fuel Consumption Forecast - EIA expects global liquid fuel consumption to increase by 800,000 barrels per day in 2025 (previously 790,000 barrels per day) and 1.06 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 1.06 million barrels per day). Non-OECD Asia is the main driver of demand growth, with India and China contributing significant growth [13]. 3.1.4 Global Oil Production Forecast - EIA expects OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC+ supply growth to drive strong global production growth. Non-OPEC+ will lead the growth in 2025, with an increase of about 1.3 million barrels per day (previously 1.13 million barrels per day), and the growth rate will slow down to 540,000 barrels per day in 2026 (previously 230,000 barrels per day) [14]. 3.1.5 EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA has comprehensively raised the supply estimates for all quarters, while the demand estimates remain almost unchanged, further intensifying the supply surplus. The expected US production is in a downward cycle, reflecting the impact of falling oil prices on shale oil producers [21]. 3.1.6 Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA expects OECD commercial crude oil inventory supply days to increase under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand. It is expected that the average supply days will be 61 days in the first half of 2025, increase to 62 days in the second half, and reach 66 days by the end of 2026 [14]. 3.2 OPEC 3.2.1 World Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that global oil demand in 2025 will be 105.13 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.29 million barrels per day. Non-OECD demand growth will increase to 1.16 million barrels per day, while OECD demand growth will decrease to 140,000 barrels per day. In 2026, global oil demand is expected to be 106.42 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million barrels per day [47][48]. 3.2.2 Non-OPEC+ Oil Supply Forecast - OPEC's July report predicts that non-OPEC+ crude oil supply in 2025 will be 54.01 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 810,000 barrels per day. In 2026, it will be 54.74 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 730,000 barrels per day. The growth mainly comes from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina [50][51]. 3.2.3 OPEC+ Production and Compliance - OPEC+ production in June was 41.559 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 349,000 barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, the other 7 countries in the OPEC+ 8 - country production cut plan generally well implemented the plan in June [52][54]. 3.2.4 OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's July report predicts that global demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. Non-OPEC+ and OPEC+ NGLs supply will increase by 900,000 barrels per day. To achieve supply - demand balance within the year, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 400,000 barrels per day [57]. 3.2.5 OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - The report provides detailed data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage from 2022 to Q1 2025, showing the changes in OECD oil inventory and consumption patterns [58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively positive. Although the most important commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased significantly, there was a one - time adjustment factor from EIA. The gasoline apparent consumption during the driving peak season remains strong, and the distillate oil inventory is continuously decreasing, which is expected to support refineries to maintain high operating rates and drive crude oil demand. After the report was released, oil prices rebounded slightly but then narrowed the gains, with little overall change [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of July 4, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426.021 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 464,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 238,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.658 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 825,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 300,000 barrels [2] - From June 27 to July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for US crude oil increased by 275,250 barrels per day to 20.5635 million barrels per day [3] Report Review - Last week, the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventory was not related to imports, exports, or the operating rate. The refinery operating rate dropped slightly by 0.2% to 94.7%, still at a high level in the same period, and net imports decreased significantly. The large inventory increase was mainly due to a data adjustment of 1.8 million barrels per day to reflect "unaccounted - for crude oil", which can be considered a one - time event [4] Product Oil Situation - Gasoline demand remained at a high level, causing gasoline inventory to decline more than expected despite the high refinery operating rate. Since the data was as of July 4 (US Independence Day, Friday), and the Independence Day long weekend is often the peak of the US driving season, the strong gasoline demand is likely to continue in next week's report. Distillate oil inventory is also significantly lower than in previous years, and the low inventory is conducive to supporting cracking and helping refineries maintain high operating rates [6]

Report Title - Methanol Special Report: Limited Upside and Downside Space [1] Report Date - July 7, 2025 [2] Main Viewpoints - After the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, the premium brought by geopolitical risks has been reversed. Recently, the South Pars gas field has resumed gas supply, and some Iranian methanol plants have gradually restarted. The previous expectation of a significant reduction in Iranian methanol imports has been revised upwards. However, factors such as low Iranian methanol inventory and China's domestic ship policies will still affect the arrival schedule. Currently, domestic methanol production profits are substantial, and supply remains abundant. Affected by poor profits and seasonality, downstream demand is expected to decline. Especially after the sharp increase in methanol prices, the loss margins of downstream industries have expanded rapidly. Against the backdrop of low inventories in inland areas and ports, the upside and downside space of the 09 contract is limited before the inventory accumulation expectation is fully realized. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the actual operating status and shipping and dispatch situation of Iranian methanol plants, as well as the downstream's acceptance of high-priced methanol [4] Market Performance - After the previous Israel-Iran geopolitical conflict broke out, against the backdrop of the market's expectation of a significant reduction in imports, the methanol main contract quickly rose to a high of nearly 2,600 yuan/ton. However, after the conflict subsided, the methanol main contract began to decline significantly, but its price bottom has been significantly higher than before the conflict. Currently, the methanol main contract continues to fluctuate around the 2,400 yuan/ton level [7] - At the end of June, affected by factors such as tight port supplies, historically low inventories, and the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants due to the Israel-Iran conflict and the expected decline in imports, the methanol spot price skyrocketed, especially the paper cargo price in the second half of June soared (the paper cargo volume and position market emerged), but the futures price was relatively restrained. At this time, the methanol port basis once soared above 400 yuan/ton, showing a rare phenomenon of a high degree of divergence between the spot and futures markets. The fundamental reason lies in the different delivery targets. Since paper cargo is delivered with imported goods, it is affected by the Israel-Iran conflict, and the expected imported arrivals are scarce. Moreover, those who had previously shorted also have the need to cover their positions, which also amplifies price fluctuations. However, after the Israel-Iran conflict subsided, the imported arrivals gradually returned to normal, and this premium was quickly squeezed out. It can be seen that after the paper cargo short squeeze ended, the methanol spot price dropped nearly 260 yuan/ton the next day. However, since futures reflect the overall market situation, and domestic factories, coastal warehouses, and trader factories can all be used for delivery, and credit warehouse receipts can be used, the overall situation is unlikely to face a severe shortage of goods, and its price fluctuations are not as extreme as those on the paper cargo side and are relatively rational [9]