期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 淡季来临，压力仍在 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年6月6日 01 行情观点 02 基本面分析 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS ➢ 钢价走弱的原因一是需求缺乏亮点，关税背景下又加大了出口的担忧；二是原材料供应宽松，即使在铁水产量同比增加的情况下，依 然累库，成本给予不了支撑。进入6月，需求季节性走弱的压力在，铁水目前处于高位，所以还需要减产才能达到新的平衡，原材料 在没有供给出现明显收缩前，还会下跌，进而带动钢价走弱。 • 1.需求有往下的压力； • 2.原材料供应释放，导致成本下行； • 3.投机需求差，企业主动去库。 ➢ 风险提示： • 行政限产促使钢材供给收缩或者国内重大刺激导致需求增幅超预期，进而促使价格走强。 01 行情观点 1、行情观点 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 螺纹表观消费（万吨） 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 热卷表观消费（万吨） 2 ...

期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 目录 CONTENTS 沥青周报 跟随成本震荡 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年6月6日 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：当前正值传统旺季开启前夕的准备阶段，厂库处于同期低位，对沥青价格起到提振作用。 不过梅雨季会对需求产生影响，弱化沥青的强势，但预计沥青仍将强于同期的原油油品。 本周走势分析：本周沥青原地震荡，总体跟随成本端原油，未有额外涨势。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需双增，厂库社库均处于同期低位，在旺季到来之前对定价有一定支撑。不 过短期需考虑梅雨季对需求影响。 本周主要观点：当前正值传统旺季开启前夕的准备阶段，厂库处于同期低位，对沥青价格起到提振作用。 不过梅雨季会对需求产生影响，叠加近期沥青利润修复后提振开工意愿，预计前期的相对强势有所弱化。 风险提示：成本端波动风险，沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 -200 -100 0 100 200 9-20 11-20 1-20 3-20 5-20 BU2506-BU2509 BU2406-BU240 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, oil prices generally fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound in oil prices at the beginning of the month, but the uncertainty after the suspension period and the continuous accelerated production increase of OPEC+ suppressed the upside space. Unless major countries make significant concessions to the US, tariff friction will re - affect the market to some extent after the 90 - day suspension period [16]. - OPEC+ has promoted an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months, strengthening the tone of accelerated production increase. The oil market may face continuous accelerated production increase in the future [16]. - Under the resonance of weak macro and micro fundamentals, the long - term trend of oil prices is weak. However, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for crude oil consumption, which may resist the downward trend to some extent [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Saudi OSP - **Price Changes in July Compared to June**: - **Asia**: Saudi Arabia slightly lowered the premiums/discounts of crude oil sold to Asia in June. For July, all grades of crude oil were lowered by $0 - 0.2 per barrel, and after the reduction, they remained at a nearly two - year low [5][10]. - **Mediterranean and Europe**: All grades of crude oil's premiums/discounts to the Mediterranean and Europe were raised by $1.8 per barrel. After the increase, the premiums/discounts were near a one - and - a - half - year high [5][10]. - **America**: All grades of crude oil were raised by $0 - 0.1 per barrel, and the absolute value was still the highest globally. Saudi Arabia exports less crude oil to the Americas [10]. - **Analysis of Saudi's Actions**: The general reduction of premiums/discounts in Asia, combined with Saudi Arabia's continuous push for OPEC+ to accelerate production increase, shows that the accelerated production increase is an action by Saudi Arabia to seize market share. The increase in premiums/discounts in Europe is because the narrowing of the Brent - WTI spread makes it more expensive for Europe to buy US crude oil, increasing its interest in crude oil from other regions [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Conditions - **Price Trend**: In May, oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound at the beginning. The uncertainty after the 90 - day suspension period and OPEC+'s continuous accelerated production increase limited the upside. The long - term trend of oil prices is weak, but the third - quarter peak season may resist the decline [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Position Report**: The net long positions of Brent management funds are more supply - dependent. The net long positions increased significantly in the week ending April 1st due to supply tightening. However, with OPEC+'s accelerated production increase and macro risks, the net long positions have dropped significantly and remained low [19]. - **WTI Crude Oil Position Report**: WTI futures net long positions focus more on the macro - situation. Due to poor economic prospects, the net long positions of WTI management funds declined earlier this year and remained low. After a sharp drop in WTI oil prices, the net long positions recovered slightly due to short - covering but then continued to decline slowly [22]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure**: The near - month structure of each crude oil futures generally remains in Back, but the shape has flattened significantly. Except for SC crude oil, the far - month structure has all turned to Contango, reflecting strong current situation and weak expectations [25]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spread**: Similar to the forward curve, M1 - M12 is generally below M1 - M6 and M1 - M9, but M1 - M2 remains strong. The M1 - M2 of Middle - East Oman crude oil is the weakest due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the Middle East [28]. - **Cross - Market Futures Spread**: In the past month, Brent has been continuously weakening against WTI's first - line contract. The narrowing of the spread between the two main contracts is more obvious, with a difference of only $0.66 per barrel at the time of writing, compared with $3.02 per barrel on May 5th. This increases the cost of European imports of US crude oil, explaining the decrease in US crude oil exports and Saudi Arabia's significant increase in European premiums/discounts [31]. - **Cross - Market Spot Spread**: The spot price spread between Brent and WTI shows similar changes to the futures [33]. - **Refined Product Spot Price**: The overall trend of refined products follows that of crude oil. During the new round of decline at the end of April, the decline speed of refined products slowed down slightly. In late May, the prices of refined products showed signs of weakness when crude oil prices changed little, which is a bad signal considering the approaching US driving peak season [35][36]. - **Refined Product Spot Crack**: During the oil price decline at the end of April, the crack spreads in various regions rebounded slightly due to the slower decline of refined products. This reflects that short - term "terminal demand has not significantly declined" supports the refined product market under the influence of trade friction and OPEC+ policies. However, the crack spreads turned downward in late May when crude oil prices fluctuated little, indicating weakening terminal demand [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that the first week of the driving peak season saw a slump in gasoline apparent demand. The report is bearish, and the market reacted with a decline after its release. If the phenomenon of weak demand in the peak season persists, the rapidly rising refined oil inventory will soon force upstream producers to reduce production [1][9] Summary by Related Catalog Main Data - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 576,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 509,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.23 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.408 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 389,000 barrels per day to 2.439 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day to 16.998 million barrels per day [3] - Apparent demand for various oil products decreased: U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 113,500 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 92,500 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 65,500 barrels per day [3] Report Review - The larger - than - expected decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to a significant increase in refinery operations. The weekly refinery utilization rate increased by 3.2% to 93.4%, driving an increase in crude oil feedstock volume [4] - In the refined oil segment, fuel demand dropped significantly after the Memorial Day, the start of the traditional demand peak season. Gasoline inventories rose sharply as terminal demand consumption was relatively slow after mid - level nodes such as gas stations stocked up before the holiday, leading to insufficient motivation for further stocking [8]

2025-05-30 10:13:06 数据来源: EIA EIA間度假告点评 主要数据一览: 截止5月23日，美国商业原油总库存为44036.3万桶，环比减少279.5万桶，与预期的增加11.8万桶相反，交割地库欣库存增加7.5万桶。战略储备 库存增加82.0万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少244.1万桶，超过预期的减少50万桶，馏分油库存减少72.4万桶，与预期的增加50万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 5月16日 | 5月23日 | 变化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 443158 | 440363 | -2795 - | | | 库欣原油库存 | 23435 | 23510 | 75 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 400493 | 401313 | 820 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 225522 | 223081 | -2441 | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 104132 | 103408 | -724 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1623569 | 1623724 | ાર્ટર | | | 美国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report is bearish. Crude oil and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased across the board, crude oil exports continued to weaken, and terminal demand was weak, reducing the possibility of a reversal in crude oil demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Data - As of May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.158 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 843,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 579,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.582 million barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 211,000 barrels per day to 19.6245 million barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 192,500 barrels per day to 8.81325 million barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 122,750 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 68,500 barrels per day to 1.6865 million barrels per day [3]. 3.2 Report Comment - The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to continued low crude oil exports and increased net imports. The four - week smoothed export volume hit a new low, indicating weakening global crude oil demand [4]. - The weekly refinery utilization rate increased for the fifth consecutive week by 0.5% to 90.7%, suggesting that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be coming to an end [4]. - U.S. crude oil production has declined recently, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is $65 per barrel of WTI [4]. - The strong gasoline demand momentum that exceeded the seasonal norm suddenly stopped, leading to an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories. With the approaching Memorial Day, the poor performance of gasoline demand is worrying. Distillate demand hit a 13 - month low, corresponding to the weakening manufacturing PMI [6]. 3.3 Market Impact - The EIA report was bearish. Inventory increases, weakening exports, and weak terminal demand all pointed to a weak oil market. The U.S. EIA report on the night before last contributed to the decline in oil prices, resulting in a negative daily line [8]. - Oil prices opened higher yesterday due to news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the lack of a realistic basis for such an attack led to a subsequent decline in oil prices [8].

202505原油展望报告 强现实弱预期与伊朗原油扰动的叠加态 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月21日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 回顾总结 02 原油市场分析 目录 CONTENTS 01 回顾总结 1.1 4月原油展望报告回顾 50 60 70 80 90 100 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 25/5 WTI 布伦特 阿曼 SC 4月主要观点：在宏观氛围急转直下的背景下，OPEC+不仅不抵抗，反而加速增产，布伦特原油70美元 大支撑位转为难以逾越的压力位。随着宏观局势持续动荡，市场信心愈加脆弱，我们维持空头观点。 行情回顾：中美贸易谈判内容超预期带动市场有限反弹，此后美伊谈判变动构成油价短期波动主要因 素。 1.2 5月原油展望报告总结 5月主要观点： 基本面： 尽管油价重心每况愈下，国际原油市场月差均处在0轴上方，这意味着现实供需依然能够匹配。 当前市场利空因素主要聚集在预期层面，比如OPEC+很可能在7月后 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week's view: From a supply - demand perspective, finished steel products would face pressure starting in May, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production. The probability of molten iron output peaking was high. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts would require further compression of steel mill profits. The unilateral driving force for finished steel products might continue downward, but the absolute price was not low, and the risk of chasing short positions was relatively large. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's market analysis: The China - US tariff agreement exceeded market expectations, and the macro - environment improved, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices this week [5]. - This week's view: April's social financing data showed weak credit, and there was no optimistic outlook for steel demand. However, in the short term, May was still the traditional peak demand season. After the China - US agreement, there were expectations of marginal improvement in short - term exports. The supply - demand data for steel was still healthy, with both rebar and hot - rolled coils reducing inventory. Steel mills currently had no pressure to cut production, and prices were expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Finished steel faced pressure in May, molten iron output might peak. Without administrative restrictions, production cuts depended on profit compression. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's analysis: China - US tariff agreement improved the macro - environment and led to a slight rebound in steel prices [5]. - This week's view: Weak April credit data, short - term demand support from the peak season and export expectations. Healthy supply - demand, inventory reduction, and expected price fluctuations [5]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - China - US tariff agreement: The agreement cancelled tariffs imposed since April, and there was a significant short - term increase in Chinese containers exported to the US. Main steel - related downstream products to the US included steel products, railway and track devices, and electromechanical products [7]. - April credit data: Resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.35 billion yuan, indicating a marginal weakening of real - estate sales in April. Enterprise loans increased by 61 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 25 billion yuan [9]. - Demand: Rebar's weekly apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463,900 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [10][11]. - Supply: The daily average molten iron output was 2447,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons. The weekly output of five major steel products was 8.6835 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 211,700 tons. Rebar's weekly output was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons [12][14]. - Inventory: Rebar's total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons. Hot - rolled coil's total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [15]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts - Spot prices: Included historical data charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices from 2021 - 2025, as well as price, basis, and spread data for different dates in May 2025 [17][18]. - Spot profits: Included data charts of converter rebar and hot - rolled coil spot virtual profits and East China rebar flat - electricity profits from 2021 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - Pig iron production: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills on May 16, 2025, was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [29]. - Rebar production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, rebar production was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. The long - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 54.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%, and the short - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 29.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [33][35]. - Hot - rolled coil production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil production was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15% [38]. - Rebar demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, rebar's apparent demand was 260,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,390 tons. The total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons [41]. - Hot - rolled coil demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil's apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [43].

主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EIA Weekly Data Report - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 - **Report Author**: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]