Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is slightly bearish for the oil market. The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, combined with the recent significant increases in global crude oil supply expectations in the EIA and IEA monthly reports, exerts downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 426,698 thousand barrels, a week-on-week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3]. - Gasoline inventories decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 43 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, net imports increased by 699 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 543.25 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 127.75 thousand barrels per day to 9,039.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 69.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,592.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 50.5 thousand barrels per day to 1,827.25 thousand barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased while the downstream refinery utilization rate remained high, dropping 0.5% to 96.4%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to increased imports and decreased exports of U.S. crude oil. Since the end of June, U.S. crude oil exports have been slightly lower than before, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4]. - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but its overall performance during this year's driving peak season has been poor, often falling below 9 million barrels per day. As the peak travel season is in its later stage, the market boost is limited. Distillate demand remains stable, and inventories are still at a low level. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly report shows that commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [1][2] - The report is slightly bearish for the oil market due to the unexpected increase in crude oil inventories and the overall neutral performance of refined oil inventories [6] Group 2: Main Data - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 426,698 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased from 13,284 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 43 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports increased from 2,644 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 699 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased from 17,124 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 56 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 20,615.75 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 543.25 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - The increase in inventory is mainly due to increased U.S. crude oil imports and decreased exports, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4] - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but overall performance during the driving peak season this year has been poor. The driving peak season is in the later stage, so the market boost is limited [8] - Distillate demand is stable, and inventory remains low. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8] - The continuous low performance of U.S. crude oil exports for more than a month implies weak overseas demand, intense overseas market competition, or the impact of tariffs, which will put pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term [6] - The recent EIA and IEA monthly reports have significantly increased the global crude oil supply forecast, which has put some pressure on oil prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - EIA's August report further intensifies the supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year. Despite the upward adjustment of demand growth expectations, the supply increase is more significant, leading to a strengthened supply surplus expectation. EIA predicts a sharp decline in Brent crude oil prices in the coming months [8]. - OPEC's August report expects an increase in global crude oil demand this year and next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply. The report also adjusts the global economic growth forecast and analyzes regional refinery profit situations [50][52][63]. Summary by Directory EIA EIA Balance Sheet - EIA shows supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2. The supply surplus is expected to be most severe in Q3 and Q4 of this year and Q1 and Q2 of next year. The surplus in these four quarters is 162, 210, 226, and 147 thousand barrels per day respectively [8]. - EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to drop from $71 per barrel in July to an average of $58 per barrel in Q4 and further to $50 per barrel in early 2026. The average price in 2026 is expected to be $51 per barrel [10]. - EIA expects an increase in global liquid fuel consumption this year and next year, with non - OECD Asia being the main driver of demand growth [14]. - EIA expects an increase in global supply this year and next year. Non - OPEC+ leads the supply increase this year, but its growth rate will slow down next year. The supply of the United States is expected to decline next year [16]. - EIA expects a decline in US retail gasoline and diesel prices next year. The distillate oil inventory is expected to remain low, and the distillate oil crack spread is expected to continue to rise [19]. EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA significantly raises the supply forecast for all quarters and the demand forecast for all quarters except 25Q1. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [24]. Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA provides forecasts for US, OECD, and global total inventory consumption [26]. Non - OPEC and OPEC Crude Oil Supply - EIA presents forecasts for non - OPEC and OPEC crude oil total supply, including the supply of major countries and exempt countries within OPEC [28][31][34][37]. Global and Regional Crude Oil Demand - EIA shows forecasts for global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil total demand, as well as the demand of major countries in these regions [40][42][45] OPEC World Oil Demand - OPEC's August report expects global crude oil demand to be 10,514 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 129 thousand barrels per day. Next year, the demand is expected to be 10,652 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 138 thousand barrels per day. Non - OECD Asia remains the main driver of demand growth [50][52]. Non - OPEC Liquids Production - OPEC's August report expects non - OPEC+ crude oil supply to be 5,401 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 81 thousand barrels per day. Next year, it is expected to be 5,464 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 63 thousand barrels per day [53][54]. OPEC+ Production and减产 - OPEC+ production in July was 4,194.0 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33.5 thousand barrels per day. OPEC production increased by 26.3 thousand barrels per day, and OPEC allies' production increased by 7.2 thousand barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, other OPEC+ countries generally well - executed the production plan [55][56][58]. OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's August report expects global demand to increase by 130 thousand barrels per day this year and 140 thousand barrels per day next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 40 thousand barrels per day this year and 60 thousand barrels per day next year [63]. OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - OPEC provides data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage, including land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and floating storage volume, as well as consumption days in different regions [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Last week's view: Asphalt demand is mainly for actual needs, and due to capital constraints, it is difficult to have better - than - expected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may restrict the overall upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt followed the decline of the cost - side crude oil. Combining with last week's market, it generally showed weak performance in rising and smooth decline [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased, and refinery inventory also decreased slightly. However, the social inventory, which had originally been slow to destock, increased instead. After entering the peak season, the slow destocking speed of social inventory will restrict the upside space of asphalt prices [7]. - This week's view: Asphalt demand is still mainly for actual needs. Affected by rainy weather and capital constraints, it is difficult to have better - than - expected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to restrict the upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度观点 (Weekly View) - Last week's view: Asphalt is mainly for actual needs, and capital constraints limit its performance. Low refinery inventory but slow social - inventory destocking restricts upside space. Expected to be volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7]. - This week's analysis: Followed the decline of crude oil, with weak rising and smooth falling performance [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply decreased, demand increased, refinery inventory dropped slightly, but social inventory rose. Slow social - inventory destocking restricts price upside [7]. - This week's view: Affected by weather and capital, asphalt is for actual needs. Low refinery inventory and slow social - inventory destocking may restrict upside. Expected to be volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7]. 3.2 02 数据概览 (Data Overview) 3.2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 (Asphalt Futures Trend, Monthly Spread, and Basis) - Data on asphalt futures main contract price, monthly spread (BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions are presented in graphical form, with data sources from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 3.2.2 沥青供应 (Asphalt Supply) - Graphs show asphalt plant operating rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. Data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 3.2.3 沥青需求 (Asphalt Demand) - Graphs display asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by apparent consumption. Data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 3.2.4 沥青进出口 (Asphalt Import and Export) - Graphs show asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices. Data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 3.2.5 沥青库存 (Asphalt Inventory) - Graphs present refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. Data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 3.2.6 山东沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of Shandong Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of Shandong asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 3.2.7 华东沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of East China Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of East China asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 3.2.8 华南沥青供需库 (Supply, Demand, and Inventory of South China Asphalt) - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of South China asphalt. Data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 3.2.9 检修信息 (Maintenance Information) - Information on production enterprises' maintenance of atmospheric - vacuum distillation units is provided, including enterprise names, maintenance units, production capacities, maintenance start times, and end times. The total annual production capacity of the maintenance units is 1836 tons/year, and the maintenance loss is 616,000 tons [33]

原油周报 美国就业数据爆冷叠加OPEC+增产打压油价 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号： Z0016296 2025年8月8日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点： 上周月报观点：8月我们将关注柴油裂解走向，在汽油消费不佳的情况下，柴油裂解引领了炼油厂的炼 油经济性。一旦柴油裂解持续走弱，将直接损害到炼厂开工率，使得原油消费端开始逐渐难以抵抗日 益增加的供应压力，使得8月油价承压。 本周走势分析：本周油价持续回落，随着美俄元首即将会晤以及潜在的美俄乌会谈，俄油扰动忧虑有 所缓解，OPEC+增产压力在原油逐渐脱离传统消费旺季之际遭到放大。 • 基本面：月差走弱，柴油裂解见顶引领油价下跌，美国旺季汽油消费疲软（2.1-2.6） • OPEC+供应：增产有条不紊，未来仍有进一步增产空间（2.7） • 市场扰动项：边谈边制裁是更可能选项，关注谈判进展（2.9） • 美国宏观：就业数据大暴冷推动降息预期，对市场形成利空（2.10- ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the EIA weekly data of the US oil market as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Main Data Highlights - US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory declined more than expected. Refinery operating rate reached a new high of 96.9% this year, up 1.5%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume was not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity from 18.347 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 18.089 million barrels per day. Export growth also contributed to the inventory decline [4] - Gasoline demand remained persistently low, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. Compared with previous years, this year's gasoline demand was only better than that in 2020 and 2022, indicating that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets. Distillate demand was stable, and the slight inventory decline was mainly due to increased exports [6] - This week's EIA report seemed bullish as crude oil and major refined product inventories declined. However, the gasoline apparent demand below 9 million barrels per day during the peak season weakened the positive impact. Overall, the US gasoline consumption market this year was disappointing compared with previous years at similar price levels. After the data release, oil prices were initially stable and then declined due to news of potential US - Russia - third - country leader talks [8]

Report Overview - The report is an EIA weekly data report released on August 7, 2025, focusing on the oil market in the United States [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The gasoline demand remains persistently low during the peak season, and the US gasoline consumption market this year is disappointing compared to previous years [1][6][8] - The EIA report seems bullish on the surface as both crude oil and major refined oil inventories have declined, but the weak gasoline demand undermines the positive impact [8] 3. Summary by Key Data Crude Oil Inventory - As of August 1, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. The Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and the strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] Refined Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate oil inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day. Jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate oil apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] 4. Report Comments Crude Oil - Last week, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The refinery utilization rate reached a new high this year, rising 1.5% to 96.9%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume is not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity. In addition, increased exports also contributed to the inventory decline [4] Refined Oil - Gasoline demand is continuously weak, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. This indicates that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets this year. Distillate oil demand is stable, and the slight decrease in inventory is mainly due to increased exports [6] 5. Market Reaction - After the data release, oil prices remained stable initially and then declined as Trump announced productive US - Russia talks and the possibility of a face - to - face meeting among the three leaders as early as next week, leading to a retreat in risk premiums [8]

主要数据一览: 截止8月1日，美国商业原油总库存为42366.2万桶，环比下降302.9万桶，超过预期的减少60万桶，交割地库欣库存增加45.3万桶。战略储备库存 增加23.5万桶。 EIA周度数据报告 2025-08-07 09:52:10 摘要:汽油需求在旺季中持续性低迷 EIA周良 脂点评 成品油方面，汽油库存减少132.3万桶，超过预期的减少40万桶，馏分油库存减少56.5万桶，与预期的增加80万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 7月25日 | 8月1日 | 变化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 426691 | 423662 | -3029 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22553 | 23006 | 453 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402741 | 402976 | ટર્ક | | | 美国汽油库存 | 228405 | 227082 | -1323 - | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 113536 | 112971 | -262 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1660512 | 1662801 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In August, attention should be paid to the trend of diesel cracking. In the case of poor gasoline consumption, diesel cracking has led the refining economy of refineries. If diesel cracking continues to weaken, it will directly damage the refinery operating rate, making it difficult for the crude oil consumption side to resist the increasing supply pressure, thus putting pressure on oil prices in August. However, there are several major disturbing factors in the market in August, such as Russian oil sanctions and trade negotiations that bundle the purchase of Russian oil, which may affect Russian oil supply and reignite diesel cracking. In addition, whether OPEC+ will further withdraw from production cuts in the fourth quarter is also worthy of attention [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly View - **Last month's view**: The northern hemisphere consumption peak season can support the market to some extent, resist the supply increase pressure, and make short - term oil prices fluctuate slightly stronger. But the peak of the consumption season is about to end, and then the supply pressure will gradually increase, with limited upside space. Key events this month, such as the end of the tariff suspension period and the follow - up negotiation of the Iranian nuclear issue, need attention [8] - **This month's trend analysis**: Oil prices fluctuated narrowly in the first half of July. With the completion of tariff negotiations between the US, Japan, and Europe, and Trump's announcement of a 10 - day ultimatum on sanctions against Russia, oil prices showed a stronger trend in the last week of July [8] - **This month's main points**: Crude oil fundamentals show that domestic oil storage makes the eastern market's monthly spread stronger, and there are signs of weakening diesel cracking; US travel consumption shows a shift from gasoline demand to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade; Market disturbance factors include Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ production increases, and tariff negotiations; The labor market is an important reference for the Fed to cut interest rates in the context of persistent inflation [8] 3.2 Monthly Key Points - **East - West market near - month spread differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) generally declined this month, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, but rebounded in the last week. Eastern market spreads are still strong, which is related to China's imports [12] - **China's inventory increase and absorption**: China's cumulative change in implied crude oil inventory from March to June this year (+645) is the highest in recent years. The increase in inventory is due to falling oil prices and intentional storage. New policies to improve energy security have led to additional demand, making the eastern crude oil near - month spread stronger than the western one [15] - **Diesel cracking shows signs of weakening**: Global cracking generally maintained a volatile or strong trend this month, but showed signs of weakening before the end of the month, mainly contributed by diesel. Diesel cracking has been strong and driven the previous cracking increase, but recently it has shown signs of weakening. Gasoline cracking has been mediocre this year [17][19] - **Global diesel inventory is generally low**: Diesel inventories in the US and China, the world's major consumers, are at multi - year lows. Northwest European port diesel inventories are relatively neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventories are at a low level after continuous decline [22] - **Gasoline demand shifts to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade**: US gasoline demand during the driving peak season this year was dismal, while jet fuel demand reached a five - year high. This reflects that US residents are turning to more short - distance self - driving travel and reducing travel budgets, especially in low - income groups [25] - **Market disturbance factors - Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ meetings**: Trump's shortening of the ultimatum on Russia from 50 days to 10 days has made this short - term disturbance factor affect oil prices. The OPEC+ JMMC meeting ended in July without proposing production policy suggestions. The market expects OPEC+ to further increase production in the fourth quarter [26] - **Tariff situation**: The US has reached a new 15% tariff agreement with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and extended the tariff suspension with China and Mexico for 90 days. Trump has signed an executive order to determine the reciprocal tariff rates for multiple countries and regions, which may drag down the global economy [28] - **Inflation and the Fed**: With the end of the downward trend of crude oil prices since April, the downward trend of inflation driven by falling energy prices is expected to slow down. The labor market is the most important consideration for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates once this year [30] - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA's forecast, the hurricane activity this year has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Hurricanes can affect offshore drilling platforms and coastal refineries [32] 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC basket price, WTI, Brent, etc. [35] - **Brent and WTI crude oil positions**: Charts present the net long positions of Brent and WTI futures and options, as well as the relationship between price and the proportion of net long positions of different types of traders [37][40] - **Crude oil futures structure, monthly spread, cross - market spreads**: Data shows the structure, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil futures [43][46][49] - **Spot spreads**: Include cross - market, American, Asian spot spreads, and Saudi OSP. Saudi OSP for different grades of oil to different regions has changed in August compared to July [52][55][58][59] - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the futures and spot prices and cracking spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions [64][66][69][72] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global and regional crude oil supply**: Data on global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries, are presented. The global rig count and US crude oil rig - related data are also included [85][88][91][94][100] - **Global and regional crude oil demand**: Data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries in OECD and non - OECD regions, are provided [109][112][115] - **Crude oil inventory**: Inventory data of the US, OECD, and other regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve, are given. The EIA balance sheet shows that the supply - demand balance is positive from 2025Q1 to 2025Q4 [118][139] 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: Include crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [154] - **Supply**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are provided [157][160] - **Refining demand**: Information on refinery crude oil input, operating rate, and refining capacity is presented [163] - **Four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand**: Data on total demand, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel demand are shown [166]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view was that anti - involution had little impact on the cost - end crude oil, asphalt was mainly for rigid demand, and it was difficult to have an unexpected performance due to capital constraints. The refinery's weekly operation rate decreased, but it was expected to rebound slightly next week. Although the refinery inventory was at a low level, the continuous non - reduction of social inventory might limit the overall upside space. The asphalt price was expected to fluctuate and follow the cost - end [7]. - This week, the asphalt price rose slightly, generally following the trend of cost - end crude oil but relatively weakly. This week, the supply and demand of refineries both increased, but the increase in demand was less than that in the operation rate. After the reduction of refinery inventory, it was at a low level in the same period, but the reduction speed of social inventory was slow. After entering the peak season, the reduction speed of social inventory would restrict the upward space of asphalt prices. The main view this week was that asphalt was still mainly for rigid demand, and it was difficult to have an unexpected performance due to capital constraints. Although the refinery inventory was at a low level, the continuous non - reduction of social inventory might limit the overall upside space. The asphalt price was expected to fluctuate and weakly follow the cost - end [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's main view: Anti - involution had little impact on the cost - end crude oil. Asphalt was mainly for rigid demand and was restricted by capital. The refinery's weekly operation rate decreased, and it was expected to rebound slightly next week. Low refinery inventory and non - reducing social inventory might limit the upside [7]. - This week's situation: The asphalt price rose slightly, following the crude oil trend weakly. Supply and demand of refineries both increased, with demand growth lower than the operation rate increase. Refinery inventory was at a low level after reduction, and slow social inventory reduction would restrict price increases [7]. - This week's main view: Asphalt was for rigid demand, restricted by capital. Low refinery inventory and non - reducing social inventory might limit the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate and weakly follow the cost - end [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The data includes asphalt's main price, the spread between September and December contracts, and the basis in East China and Shandong regions. The data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data shows asphalt device operation rate, weekly output, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate. The data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - The data covers asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by asphalt apparent consumption. The data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Import and Export - The data includes asphalt import and export volumes, and the import windows in East China and South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - The data shows refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. The data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in Shandong. The data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in East China. The data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The data includes operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory in South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Production Enterprise Maintenance Information - Multiple enterprises had their atmospheric and vacuum distillation units under maintenance. The total annual production capacity of these enterprises was 1936 tons, and the maintenance loss was 604,000 tons [33].