Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively bullish as inventories of crude oil and major refined products have all declined. Although the refinery operating rate has decreased, the strong diesel demand is reassuring for market bulls. With the start of the autumn harvest, diesel demand will seasonally strengthen, and the relatively low distillate inventory may keep distillate cracking firm, thus supporting refining demand. After the data was released last night, oil prices generally fluctuated upwards [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - As of August 22, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.292 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.392 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.9 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 776,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, falling short of the expected decrease of 2.2 million barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 900,000 barrels [2] - From August 15 to August 22, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased from 420.684 million barrels to 418.292 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 23.47 million barrels to 22.632 million barrels; U.S. strategic reserve inventory increased from 403.425 million barrels to 404.201 million barrels; U.S. gasoline inventory decreased from 223.57 million barrels to 222.334 million barrels; U.S. distillate inventory decreased from 116.028 million barrels to 114.242 million barrels; U.S. total crude oil chain inventory decreased from 1.666537 billion barrels to 1.662919 billion barrels [3] Production, Import, Processing, and Demand Data - From August 15 to August 22, U.S. crude oil production increased from 13.382 million barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day; U.S. crude oil net imports increased from 2.125 million barrels per day to 2.424 million barrels per day; U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased from 17.208 million barrels per day to 16.88 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased from 21.093 million barrels per day to 21.14975 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. gasoline apparent demand increased from 9.0085 million barrels per day to 9.0305 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. distillate apparent demand increased from 3.74825 million barrels per day to 3.88225 million barrels per day; the four - week smoothed U.S. jet fuel apparent demand decreased from 1.8815 million barrels per day to 1.7905 million barrels per day [3] Market Analysis - Last week, U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories decreased. Although the commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, the decline in the refinery operating rate slightly diluted the positive effect. The weekly refinery operating rate decreased by 2.0% to 94.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the driving peak season usually ends on the Labor Day weekend in early September, after which the refinery operating rate shows a seasonal decline [4] - In the refined product market, gasoline demand remains lower than last year and the same period in previous years, suggesting insufficient consumption ability or willingness of U.S. residents in the context of low oil prices. However, distillate demand has continued to rebound, far exceeding last year's level and the average of previous years last week, leading to an unexpected decrease in distillate inventory. As autumn approaches, distillate demand will increase with the autumn harvest while the inventory is relatively low, and distillate cracking is expected to remain firm. The market will focus more on distillates in the future [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the outlook of the crude oil market in August 2025, suggesting a long - term bearish view on oil prices due to increasing supply and gradually loosening supply - demand dynamics [7][8] Group 2: Core Views - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually becoming looser, with supply expected to continuously increase, and further loosening is foreseeable after the end of the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process regarding potential sanctions is the biggest short - term disturbance, and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting was dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. It's recommended to short at high prices [8] - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral with the latest signal being negative, and the forward - looking indicator is also neutral with the latest signal being negative [11] Group 3: Review and Summary 7 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - The July view was that from a long - term perspective, oil prices were still bearish as the consumption peak season would gradually end. In the short - term, there were many supply - side disturbances. In early August, oil prices oscillated downward due to cracking decline, tariff policies, and optimism about the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. However, strong EIA data and a change in market sentiment about the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month [7] 8 - month Crude Oil Outlook Report - Fundamentally, supply - demand is gradually loosening, and terminal demand shows some resilience. Supply is expected to increase, and further loosening is expected after the demand peak season. Non - fundamentally, the Russia - Ukraine peace process and Powell's speech are key factors. The conclusion is that from the month - spread scale, the shift to a looser supply - demand situation is becoming a reality, and it's advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 4: Crude Oil Market Analysis Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators - The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the latest signal being negative, touching 4 days out of 5 trading days from 8/7 to 8/13. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the latest signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1. The comprehensive indicator describes the current situation, and the forward - looking indicator focuses on future trends [11] Global Near - month Spread - Global near - month spreads generally declined in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply - demand. Some markets' month - spreads are flattening, and the Middle East market's spreads are relatively strong, which is related to China's imports [14] Crack Spreads - Global crack spreads were generally stable in August, and strengthened to varying degrees in the second half of the month. Although downstream demand is okay, the supply increase from both OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ has weakened the near - end spreads [16][17] Global Spot Crack Spreads (Detailed Version) - Global diesel crack spreads strengthened after a period of decline. As the gasoline consumption peak season ends and the diesel demand season approaches, diesel crack spreads will support the downstream of crude oil [19] EIA Weekly Report - As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014,000 barrels, exceeding expectations. The decrease was due to strong demand from overseas exports and high refinery operating rates. The diesel market's structural issues may strengthen the distillate crack spreads and refinery demand. Overall, the report implies demand resilience, which can slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short - term [23] Major Energy Agencies' August Reports - IEA and EIA significantly raised supply expectations for the second consecutive month, while OPEC maintained its non - OPEC+ supply expectations. All three agencies' reports suggest that the oil market is moving towards a record surplus [24] Key Changes in Major Energy Agencies' Monthly Reports - IEA and EIA continuously raised supply expectations, and as the traditional consumption peak season ends, the supply - demand surplus will become more significant. OPEC's adjustment of its 2026 forecast is to justify future production increases [25] Russia - Ukraine Peace Process - The main differences between Russia and Ukraine are in territory and security issues. The peace process is a short - term disturbance to the oil market, and after the initial optimism, it may be bullish for oil prices but won't change the long - term bearish trend [26] Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Market generally interprets Powell's speech as dovish, but it is dovish in the short - term and hawkish in the long - term. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September is high, but it depends on data. The Fed's preventive rate cuts are generally bearish for crude oil [27]

Report Title Crude Oil Weekly Report Report Date August 22, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil remains under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term, but strong short - term data may alleviate market pessimism and potentially drive a limited - height rebound, especially considering potential changes in Russia - Ukraine talks. Additionally, pay attention to rumors about OPEC+'s future production policies [8]. - The core inflation being more stubborn and PPI rising significantly strengthen the view that the Fed's most - concerned core PCE data is unlikely to fall to 2% this year. The market's bet on a September rate cut has decreased, and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium is highly anticipated [25]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week, the large supply narrative in institutional reports strengthened the medium - to - long - term bearish view, and the US inflation data supported the expectation of stagflation. Short - term market focus was on the Trump - Putin meeting and potential cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, which could provide better short - selling opportunities. - This week, oil prices weakened slightly at the beginning, then rebounded due to the positive EIA weekly report and re - evaluation of the peace talks. Fundamentally, diesel cracking stabilized and rebounded, but the large supply background pressured the crude oil monthly spread. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks had progress but still had core differences. The Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium was awaited, with the prediction that Powell would not give a clear guidance [8]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - **Global Near - Month Spreads**: Western market spreads of WTI and Brent were weak, indicating a slowdown in immediate supply - demand. Eastern market spreads were also weak after the contract rollover, and domestic SC crude oil entered the contango structure [10][12]. - **US Cracking**: Global cracking was generally stable, but US cracking strengthened, consistent with the EIA weekly report. Despite decent downstream demand, the larger supply release led to a weaker near - term spread [13][15]. - **Crude Oil Fundamental Indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals was neutral, and the forward - looking indicator was also neutral. Both had briefly and slightly touched the negative range recently [17]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Global diesel cracking strengthened after an adjustment period. As the gasoline consumption peak ended and the diesel demand seasonal peak approached, diesel cracking would support the crude oil downstream [18][19]. - **EIA Weekly Report**: As of August 15, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.014 million barrels. The EIA report implied strong demand, which could slightly correct the market's pessimistic expectations in the short term [21][23]. - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: There were core differences between Russia, Ukraine, and the US on territorial and security issues. If the talks fluctuated, the risk premium might return [24]. - **US Macroeconomic Data**: Core inflation and PPI trends strengthened the view that the core PCE would not fall to 2%. Market bets on a September rate cut decreased. The market was concerned about Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium [25]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: According to NOAA, this year's hurricane activity had a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it was calmer than last year. Currently, there were no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones were forecasted in the next 7 days [27][28]. 3.3 Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Provided historical trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including Brent, WTI, Oman, and SC [32]. - **Brent and WTI Positions**: Showed the net long positions of different participants in Brent and WTI futures and options [34][36]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Monthly Spread**: Presented the futures structure and monthly spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC [38][41]. - **Cross - Market Futures and Spot Spreads**: Displayed cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [44][47]. - **Saudi OSP**: The Saudi OSP for different grades of crude oil to various regions had different price adjustments in September compared to August [55]. - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: Showed the prices and cracking spreads of refined products in the futures and spot markets, including gasoline, diesel, etc. [59][67] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: Included the supply of non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ and the total global supply, with historical data and forecasts [80][81]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply**: Analyzed the supply of non - OPEC countries (such as the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil) and OPEC countries, including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries [83][93]. - **Global Rig Count**: Showed the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally [95][96]. - **US Oil Rig and Refinery Shutdown**: Included data on US oil rigs, well completion, and shutdowns of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions [97][102]. - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: Included the demand of OECD, non - OECD, and the total global demand, with historical data and forecasts [103][104]. - **Crude Oil Inventory**: Showed the inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, as well as the EIA balance sheet and its changes [112][135]. - **OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage**: Provided data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage [144]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Not detailed in the provided content, only the section title was given [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand was mainly driven by rigid needs. Although rainfall impact was expected to decrease next week, overall demand was difficult to exceed expectations due to capital constraints. Despite low refinery inventories, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to move in a volatile manner, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated this week, showing a slight upward trend in the second half of the week, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: Both supply and demand of refineries decreased this week, with a more significant decline in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories, which had been difficult to destock, showed signs of loosening, indicating a marginal positive trend [7]. - This week's view: With an increase in short - term maintenance and a decrease in rainfall, asphalt conditions are expected to improve marginally. However, demand will still be restricted by capital. Asphalt is unlikely to have an independent market and will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's view: Asphalt market was mainly driven by rigid demand. Next - week's rainfall impact was expected to decrease, but capital constraints limited demand growth. Low refinery inventories and non - destocking social inventories might suppress market sentiment. Asphalt was expected to be volatile and weakly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's analysis: Asphalt prices fluctuated and rose slightly in the second half, following crude oil [7]. - This week's data: Refinery supply and demand both decreased, with a larger drop in production. Refinery inventories increased slightly, and social inventories showed signs of destocking [7]. - This week's view: Short - term maintenance increase and less rainfall will improve asphalt conditions marginally. However, capital constraints will still limit demand. Asphalt will follow the cost side [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis The report presents charts of asphalt futures prices, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators over different time periods, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports Charts present asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and price differences between imported and domestic prices, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts display operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in Shandong, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts show operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in East China, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory Charts present operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Plant Maintenance A table lists asphalt production enterprises, their maintenance devices, capacities, maintenance start times, and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2116 tons/year and a maintenance loss of 648,400 tons [33].

Group 1: Report Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The EIA report for the week is relatively bullish. The decline in inventory is due to the demand side, with overseas exports rebounding and refineries maintaining high operating rates, which may slow down the seasonal decline in demand. The structural issues in the diesel market are worth attention, as the demand for diesel will seasonally strengthen with the start of the autumn harvest while the distillate inventory is relatively low, which may make the previously slowing distillate cracking recover and drive refinery demand [8]. Group 3: Summary of Key Data - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014 thousand barrels to 420684 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1800 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 419 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 223 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2720 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900 thousand barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 2343 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 900 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 1218 thousand barrels per day to 2125 thousand barrels per day, and the single - week export volume reached 4372 thousand barrels per day, a new high since April [3][4]. - The refinery operating rate increased by 0.2% to 96.6% [4]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 66 thousand barrels per day to 21093 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 31.25 thousand barrels per day to 9008.5 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 156 thousand barrels per day to 3748.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 54.25 thousand barrels per day to 1881.5 thousand barrels per day [3]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was due to a sharp drop in net imports caused by a surge in exports, indicating an improvement in previously weak overseas demand, and the high - level refinery operating rate [4]. - Gasoline demand remains lower than last year and the same period in previous years, suggesting insufficient consumer ability or willingness. Distillate demand has rebounded significantly, and its inventory is still at a low level. As autumn approaches, the market will focus more on distillates [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Continue to bear pressure" [1] Core View of the Report - Last week's view: Asphalt demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Affected by rainy weather and capital constraints, it is difficult to have unexpected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to restrict the upside space. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile, weakly following the cost side [7]. - This week's market analysis: This week, asphalt fluctuated weakly, showing a weaker pattern than crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply increased while demand decreased, and refinery inventory increased slightly, which is bearish but with limited marginal change. However, the social inventory, which has been difficult to destock, continued to rise. Considering that it is currently the traditional peak consumption season for asphalt, the slow destocking of social inventory is a significant bearish factor [7]. - This week's view: Asphalt demand remains mainly rigid. Next week, the impact of rainfall is expected to decrease, but capital constraints will make it difficult for overall demand to have unexpected performance. Although the refinery inventory is at a low level, the continuous lack of destocking in social inventory may continue to suppress market sentiment. It is expected that the overall trend of asphalt will be volatile, weakly following the cost side [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - Last week's main view was that asphalt demand was mainly rigid, affected by weather and capital, with limited upside due to social inventory. This week, asphalt trended weakly compared to crude oil. Industry data showed increased supply, decreased demand, and rising social inventory. Next week, with less rainfall but capital constraints, asphalt is expected to remain volatile and follow the cost side weakly [7] 2. Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The section presents charts of asphalt futures trends, including the relationship between the main contract price, monthly spreads (e.g., BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong. Data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Charts show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. Data is from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - The section includes charts of asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and their 12 - month moving averages. Data is sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Charts display asphalt import and export volumes, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices. Data is from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Charts present refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume. Data is from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The section shows the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong. Data is from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Charts display the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China. Data is from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The section presents the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China. Data is from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table lists refineries under maintenance, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end - time (mostly undetermined). The total annual production capacity of refineries under maintenance is 1886 tons, and the maintenance loss is 583,400 tons. Data is from Steel Union Data [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintained a medium - to long - term bearish view on oil prices, supported by major institutions' reports on large supply and US inflation data [7] - Short - term market would focus on the Trump - Putin meeting, and a potential cyclone in the US Gulf could push up oil prices in the short term, providing better short - selling opportunities [7] Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's view was to maintain a medium - to long - term bearish view, and thought short - term oil prices might be slightly undervalued [7] - This week, oil prices continued to decline. Concerns about Russian oil disturbances eased, and OPEC+ production increase pressure was magnified [7] - Key factors included weakening month - spreads, stable cracking, major institutions' reports on supply increase, OPEC+ production increase, and the impact of the Trump - Putin meeting [7] 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads were generally weak, with Western and Eastern markets showing signs of slowing supply - demand [9][11] - Global cracking was generally stable, with New York and Northwest Europe cracking Brent relatively weaker [13] - Gasoline cracking stabilized, but its upside was limited. Diesel cracking was weak, and its slowdown might impact the fundamentals [15] - Refining economy declined, especially in Asia, which might affect future refinery operating rates [17] - Global diesel inventories were low, mainly due to raw material issues, and were expected to improve before the autumn - winter consumption peak [20] - Major energy institutions' August reports showed that IEA and EIA significantly increased supply expectations, while OPEC continued to support production increase [22] - OPEC+ 8 - country production showed that most countries well - executed production plans, and many were over - producing [36][37] - The Trump - Putin meeting could cause market disturbances, but it was difficult to change the overall supply - dominated market pattern in the long run [40] - US macro - economic data indicated a potential stagflation situation, and core inflation was stubborn [42] - This year's North American hurricane activity was expected to be 60% above average, and a potential cyclone might affect oil production and refining [44] 03 Price, Spread, and Cracking - Provided data on crude oil futures and spot trends, including Brent and WTI [48] - Presented information on WTI and Brent crude oil positions, futures structures, month - spreads, cross - market futures and spot spreads [50][53][56] - Showed Saudi OSP data for different regions and different oil grades [72] - Provided data on refined product futures and spot prices, as well as cracking data in different regions [77][79][82] 04 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Presented data on global, non - OPEC, and OPEC crude oil supply, including production, capacity, and rig numbers [98][101][104] - Showed data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand [120][123][126] - Provided data on crude oil inventories in the US, OECD, and other regions [130][133][135] - Presented EIA balance sheet data, showing supply, consumption, and balance changes [150]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is slightly bearish for the oil market. The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, combined with the recent significant increases in global crude oil supply expectations in the EIA and IEA monthly reports, exerts downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 426,698 thousand barrels, a week-on-week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3]. - Gasoline inventories decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 43 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, net imports increased by 699 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 543.25 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 127.75 thousand barrels per day to 9,039.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 69.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,592.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 50.5 thousand barrels per day to 1,827.25 thousand barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased while the downstream refinery utilization rate remained high, dropping 0.5% to 96.4%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to increased imports and decreased exports of U.S. crude oil. Since the end of June, U.S. crude oil exports have been slightly lower than before, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4]. - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but its overall performance during this year's driving peak season has been poor, often falling below 9 million barrels per day. As the peak travel season is in its later stage, the market boost is limited. Distillate demand remains stable, and inventories are still at a low level. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly report shows that commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [1][2] - The report is slightly bearish for the oil market due to the unexpected increase in crude oil inventories and the overall neutral performance of refined oil inventories [6] Group 2: Main Data - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 426,698 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased from 13,284 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 43 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports increased from 2,644 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 699 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased from 17,124 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 56 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 20,615.75 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 543.25 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - The increase in inventory is mainly due to increased U.S. crude oil imports and decreased exports, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4] - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but overall performance during the driving peak season this year has been poor. The driving peak season is in the later stage, so the market boost is limited [8] - Distillate demand is stable, and inventory remains low. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8] - The continuous low performance of U.S. crude oil exports for more than a month implies weak overseas demand, intense overseas market competition, or the impact of tariffs, which will put pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term [6] - The recent EIA and IEA monthly reports have significantly increased the global crude oil supply forecast, which has put some pressure on oil prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - EIA's August report further intensifies the supply surplus in each quarter of this year and next year. Despite the upward adjustment of demand growth expectations, the supply increase is more significant, leading to a strengthened supply surplus expectation. EIA predicts a sharp decline in Brent crude oil prices in the coming months [8]. - OPEC's August report expects an increase in global crude oil demand this year and next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ needs to increase crude oil supply. The report also adjusts the global economic growth forecast and analyzes regional refinery profit situations [50][52][63]. Summary by Directory EIA EIA Balance Sheet - EIA shows supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2. The supply surplus is expected to be most severe in Q3 and Q4 of this year and Q1 and Q2 of next year. The surplus in these four quarters is 162, 210, 226, and 147 thousand barrels per day respectively [8]. - EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to drop from $71 per barrel in July to an average of $58 per barrel in Q4 and further to $50 per barrel in early 2026. The average price in 2026 is expected to be $51 per barrel [10]. - EIA expects an increase in global liquid fuel consumption this year and next year, with non - OECD Asia being the main driver of demand growth [14]. - EIA expects an increase in global supply this year and next year. Non - OPEC+ leads the supply increase this year, but its growth rate will slow down next year. The supply of the United States is expected to decline next year [16]. - EIA expects a decline in US retail gasoline and diesel prices next year. The distillate oil inventory is expected to remain low, and the distillate oil crack spread is expected to continue to rise [19]. EIA Balance Sheet Changes - EIA significantly raises the supply forecast for all quarters and the demand forecast for all quarters except 25Q1. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [24]. Crude Oil Total Inventory - EIA provides forecasts for US, OECD, and global total inventory consumption [26]. Non - OPEC and OPEC Crude Oil Supply - EIA presents forecasts for non - OPEC and OPEC crude oil total supply, including the supply of major countries and exempt countries within OPEC [28][31][34][37]. Global and Regional Crude Oil Demand - EIA shows forecasts for global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil total demand, as well as the demand of major countries in these regions [40][42][45] OPEC World Oil Demand - OPEC's August report expects global crude oil demand to be 10,514 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 129 thousand barrels per day. Next year, the demand is expected to be 10,652 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 138 thousand barrels per day. Non - OECD Asia remains the main driver of demand growth [50][52]. Non - OPEC Liquids Production - OPEC's August report expects non - OPEC+ crude oil supply to be 5,401 thousand barrels per day this year, with a year - on - year increase of 81 thousand barrels per day. Next year, it is expected to be 5,464 thousand barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 63 thousand barrels per day [53][54]. OPEC+ Production and减产 - OPEC+ production in July was 4,194.0 thousand barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33.5 thousand barrels per day. OPEC production increased by 26.3 thousand barrels per day, and OPEC allies' production increased by 7.2 thousand barrels per day. Except for Kazakhstan, other OPEC+ countries generally well - executed the production plan [55][56][58]. OPEC+ Balance Sheet - OPEC's August report expects global demand to increase by 130 thousand barrels per day this year and 140 thousand barrels per day next year. To achieve supply - demand balance, OPEC+ crude oil supply needs to increase by 40 thousand barrels per day this year and 60 thousand barrels per day next year [63]. OECD Inventory, Consumption Days, and Floating Storage - OPEC provides data on OECD inventory, consumption days, and floating storage, including land - based commercial inventory, strategic petroleum reserve, and floating storage volume, as well as consumption days in different regions [64].