Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA report this week is relatively neutral. Although gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, the increase was small and crude oil inventories declined more than expected. The refinery operating rate is gradually recovering, with good basic data. However, other demand in the industrial sector performed poorly, and inventories showed a seasonal increase, dragging down the positive impact of the report [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data - As of May 2nd, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 438.376 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.032 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 740,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 580,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 1.107 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels per day to 13.367 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day [3]. - The refinery processing volume decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 16.071 million barrels per day, and the terminal apparent demand for crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 97,750 barrels per day to 19.756 million barrels per day [3]. Report Analysis - The refinery maintenance season this year, which is slightly longer than usual, may be gradually coming to an end as the weekly refinery operating rate has increased for the third consecutive week, rising 0.4% to 89.0% [4]. - The recent decline in U.S. crude oil production is mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new - well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is WTK $5 per barrel [4]. - The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories may be due to the recent continuous decline in prices, which has boosted demand. Other refined product inventories, mainly industrial products, have continued to increase seasonally, consistent with their weak demand [6]. - The decline in oil prices last night was due to the smooth signal from the U.S. - Iran negotiations, which reduced the risk of Iranian crude oil supply disruption, and the Fed's statement of increased two - way risks, which lowered short - term risk appetite [8].

202504原油展望报告 山雨欲来风满楼 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月30日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 回顾总结 02 原油市场分析 目录 CONTENTS 50 60 70 80 90 100 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 WTI 布伦特 阿曼 SC 3月主要观点：当前原油实物市场依然偏紧，且OPEC+的补偿性减产和美国制裁将收紧供应端输出。预 计油价将进入企稳反弹阶段，更长期的尺度我们维持供应过剩观点。 行情回顾：由于特朗普美国时间4月2日推出的关税政策远超预期，市场风险偏好急剧下降，此后 OPEC+决定5月加速增产，使得宏微观边际共振向下。 1.2 4月原油展望报告总结 4月主要观点： 01 回顾总结 1.1 2月原油展望报告回顾 基本面： 近月价差相对持坚，但市场更关注疲软预期，而非现实面 美国与伊朗原油之间的牵扯是短期市场最大扰动因素，但预计不会改变总体向下趋势 OPEC+内部矛盾加深，加速增产恐成 ...

原油周报 OPEC+矛盾加剧，全球经济依然承压 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点： 上周周报观点：本周关税战消息趋于平静，油价在利多消息推动下超跌反弹，不过当前市场环境仍然 差于关税战起点，我们预计在进一步利多消息或者关税战戏剧性反转之前油价反弹空间有限。若 OPEC+持续当前的加速增产倾向，预计原油市场将持续面临下行压力。 本周走势分析：本周油价原地震荡，周末美伊谈判传积极信号，周中传OPEC+6月可能继续加速增产令 油价承压，而美国对伊朗制裁、中美贸易谈判流言以及美国可能降低对中国关税支撑油价。 • 现货市场格局：强现实弱预期，价格反应了预期，等待现实向预期靠拢。（2.1） • OPEC+或再加速增产：OPEC+内部矛盾加大，对内转对外风险增加（2.3-2.4） • 宏观面：IMF下调全球经济预测，美联储（2.5-2.6） • 美伊会谈：美国 ...

节前震荡为主 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 周度观点 ➢ 上周主要观点：3月的经济数据超市场预期，实际GDP同比增长5.4%，一线城市地产价格企稳回升，地产销售基本持平，新开工降幅收窄至- 18.7%，狭义基建投资增速同比回升至5.8%。本期钢联的数据也不错，螺纹表需继续回升，热卷环比也有所增加。价格延续弱势，主要还是对 需求的持续性和接下来出口端的担忧，再加上原材料尤其焦煤不断创新低，成本给予的支撑也不够。短期价格再靠近上周低点，市场情绪不佳， 但也没用新的利空，现货也相对抗跌，基差走强，预计震荡为主。 ➢ 本周走势分析：本周盘面止跌反弹，虽然关税对未来需求的影响还会继续，且面临不确定性，但很难再超预期，本周也释放了一些缓和的信号。 ➢ 本周主要观点：基本面上看，钢联数据低于市场预期，尤其螺纹需求，但钢谷的数据不错且螺纹低库存且不断去库下，部分地区已经出现缺规 格现象，热卷的需求还是有一定韧 ...

2025-04-24 10:02:28 EIA周度数据报告 摘要:表观需求全面增加,带动成品油库存大幅下降 EIA周度报告点评 主要数据 -照: 截止4月18日，美国商业原油总库存为44310.4万桶，环比增加24.4万桶，与预期的减少80万桶相反，交割地库欣库存减少8.6万桶。战略储备库存 增加46.8万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少447.6万桶，超过预期的减少140万桶，馏分油库存减少235.3万桶，低于预期的持平。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 4月11日 | 4月18日 | 型化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 442860 | 443104 | 244 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 25105 | 25019 | -86 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 397009 | 397477 | 468 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 234019 | 229543 | -4476 | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 109231 | 106878 | -2353 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1605634 | 1605365 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The impact of tariffs on global commodity demand and domestic steel exports remains highly uncertain, but iron ore prices have already reflected a rather pessimistic outlook. The 09 contract dropped to a minimum of 670.5 yuan/ton last week, corresponding to a US dollar index of around 85, indicating an annual iron ore surplus of about 30 million tons. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand balance of iron ore won't be very loose, with a slight inventory build - up at ports expected according to the balance sheet. With the expectation of tariff relaxation and domestic policy support, iron ore prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound [7]. - This week's price trend: Iron ore prices rose first and then fell this week, mainly driven by finished steel. Given the weak export outlook and the potential short - term peak in domestic demand, the market is trading on the logic of macro - expectations and fundamental production cuts [7]. - This week's view: Vale and Rio Tinto released their quarterly production and sales reports, showing a year - on - year decline in Q1 production with no change in production targets. Recently, shipments from non - mainstream mines have decreased. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable. Against the backdrop of a high basis and pre - holiday steel mill restocking, it is suitable for long positions. However, the pressure on single - sided positions lies in finished steel. Although the inventory reduction speed of rebar and hot - rolled coils is good this period, market concerns about exports are still obvious due to tariff frictions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Tariff impact on demand and exports is uncertain, but iron ore prices reflected pessimism. The 09 contract hit a low, suggesting an annual surplus. First - half supply - demand is not overly loose, and prices may rebound with tariff and policy expectations [7]. - This week's price movement: Prices fluctuated due to finished steel, and the market traded on macro and production - cut logics [7]. - This week's view: Quarterly reports showed production decline, non - mainstream shipments decreased. Short - term fundamentals are okay, suitable for long positions with basis and restocking factors. Single - sided pressure comes from finished steel, and an arbitrage strategy is recommended [7]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights 3.2.1 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,200 tons. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased significantly. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons, and then increased by 418,000 tons in another comparison. Australian shipments were 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 232,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.368 million tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The resumption speed of steel mills has slowed down, and the first - half peak of pig iron output may be around 2.43 million tons. Steel apparent demand continued to increase, and the inventory reduction speed was acceptable. However, seasonally, the demand peak is likely to occur from late April to early May, and the future steel export outlook is poor, so iron ore demand faces downward pressure [13]. 3.2.3 Port Inventory - The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,400 tons. The port inventory was 140.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8502 million tons, indicating continued inventory reduction. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 90.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 242,100 tons [16]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts 3.3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Data shows the prices and price changes of Qingdao Port PB powder, Super Special powder, and the basis over several days in April 2025 [21]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread - Multiple charts show the price differences between different iron ore varieties such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba powder, PB lump, etc. over the years from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.3.5 Pig Iron Output - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and daily average pig iron output data are presented, showing changes over time. For example, on April 18, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% [36].

期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 01 周度观点 沥青周报 跟随油价反弹 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月18日 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：由于关税政策尚未稳定，短期原油仍有波动可能，预计沥青总体跟随成本端为主，但随 着最密集地反制、政策调整期已经过去，波动率有望逐步下降。沥青实际刚需依然偏弱，不过北方天气 晴好有利于需求季节性修复，预计不会短期对盘面形成额外冲击。 本周走势分析：本周沥青后半周走高，总体跟随成本端原油波动。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需均有所走强，不过与往年同期相比依然偏弱，尤其是炼厂出货量。与此对 应的是，厂库社库同时走高，同样处于历史偏低位置。 本周主要观点：今年沥青很可能复制去年的格局，通过低开工率补偿低需求量，不过这种主动性去库难 以对价格产生实质性提振。沥青实际刚需依然季节性偏弱，油价下跌带来的利润改善引发的开工上行或 难以持续，预计沥青弱势跟随原油波动。 风险提示：成本端波动风险，沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 资料来源：钢联数据 2.3 ...

主要能源机构4月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月16日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2024Q3 102.68 103.01 -0.32 +0.03 2024Q4 103.28 103.15 +0.12 +0.26 2024 102.75 102.74 +0.01 +0.09 2025Q1 103.34 103.53 -0.19 +0.30 2025Q2 103.73 103.17 +0.55 +0.61 2025Q3 104.46 103.78 +0.68 +0.65 2025Q4 104.87 104.09 +0.77 +0.13 2025 104.10 103.65 +0.45 +0.42 资料来源：EIA 全球原油平衡 EIA在4月报告中大幅强化了今年供应过剩的程度（3万桶/日 →45万桶/日），扭转了3月份的弱化，使得今年供应过剩缺口 预测值超过了之前所有月度报告 供应端，EIA全面下调了今明两年除了今年第二季度以外，所 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to low refinery operations and increased shipments, asphalt factory inventory dropped to a low level for the same period, and the fundamentals improved slightly. However, actual demand remained weak, and asphalt only followed crude oil price fluctuations [8]. - This week, asphalt started with a daily limit down and then fluctuated widely, generally following the cost - end crude oil. The refinery operating rate increased slightly, shipments declined significantly, and factory and social inventories increased slightly, with absolute levels lower than in previous years [8]. - Since the tariff policy is unstable, crude oil may still fluctuate in the short term. It is expected that asphalt will mainly follow the cost - end, but as the most intensive period of counter - measures and policy adjustments has passed, volatility is expected to gradually decline. Actual demand for asphalt remains weak, but good weather in the north is conducive to seasonal demand recovery and is not expected to impact the market in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoint - **Last Week's Main Viewpoint**: Low refinery operations and increased shipments led to a decline in asphalt factory inventory to a low level for the same period, with slightly improved fundamentals. Actual demand was weak, and asphalt followed crude oil price fluctuations. The US tariff policy might cause oil price fluctuations [8]. - **This Week's Trend Analysis**: Asphalt started with a daily limit down and then fluctuated widely, following the cost - end crude oil [8]. - **This Week's Industry Data**: The refinery operating rate increased slightly, shipments declined significantly, and factory and social inventories increased slightly, with absolute levels lower than in previous years [8]. - **This Week's Main Viewpoint**: Crude oil may still fluctuate in the short term due to unstable tariff policies. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end, and volatility may gradually decline. Actual demand is weak, but northern weather is favorable for demand recovery and won't impact the market in the short term [8]. 02 Data Overview - **2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis**: The data shows historical trends of asphalt futures prices, monthly spreads (e.g., BU2506 - BU2509), and basis in East China and Shandong regions [10][11]. - **2.2 Asphalt Supply**: It presents data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate over multiple years [13][14]. - **2.3 Asphalt Demand**: The data includes asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent consumption [16][17]. - **2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports**: It shows historical data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China, as well as the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices [19][20]. - **2.5 Asphalt Inventory**: The data covers factory inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume [22][23]. - **2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: It presents data on Shandong's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [25][26]. - **2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: It shows data on East China's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [28][29]. - **2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: It presents data on South China's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [31][32]. - **2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule**: Multiple refineries are undergoing or have undergone maintenance. The total maintenance capacity is 2041 million tons per year, and the maintenance loss is 836,000 tons [34].

EIA周度数据报告 2025-04-10 10:41:08 摘要:市场小透明,预计反弹空间有限 上周美国原油库存超预期增加，成品油中馏分油库存意外大降，主要归功于持续进行的春检。周度炼厂开工率增加0.7%至86.7%，依然处于较低 区域，显示检修持续进行。较往年持续更久的春检使得库存不断从下游转移到上游，而相对疲软的终端需求使得原油链总库存有所增加。 EIA間度 REAT 主要数据一览: 截止4月4日，美国商业原油总库存为44234.5万桶，环比增加255.3万桶，超过预期的增加140万桶，交割地库欣库存增加68.1万桶。战略储备库存 增加27.6万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少160.0万桶，超过预期的减少150万桶，馏分油库存减少354.4万桶，与预期的增加30万桶大相径庭。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 3月28日 | 4月4日 | 变化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 439792 | 442345 | 2553 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 25078 | 25759 | 681 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 3964 ...