Report Overview - The report is an EIA weekly data report dated July 3, 2025, analyzing the oil inventory and market situation in the US as of June 27 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The EIA report is relatively bearish as both crude oil and gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, with overseas demand appearing weak and potential negative impacts on future refinery operating rate expectations. However, geopolitical risks and trade agreements later pushed up oil prices [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Main Data - As of June 27, US commercial crude oil inventory was 418.951 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.845 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.8 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels [2] - Gasoline inventory increased by 4.188 million barrels, against the expected decrease of 0.2 million barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 1.71 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels [2] - US crude oil production decreased by 2 thousand barrels/day to 13.433 million barrels/day, net imports increased by 2.94 million barrels/day to 4.614 million barrels/day, and processing volume increased by 118 thousand barrels/day to 17.105 million barrels/day [3] Report Comments - The unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory was mainly due to significant changes in net imports. Crude oil imports increased by 0.975 million barrels/day and exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels/day in a single week, with the single - week export volume hitting a two - year low [4] - The increase in gasoline inventory was unexpected. Although the four - week smoothed gasoline demand data increased by 0.09425 million barrels/day week - on - week, the single - week demand data decreased by 1.048 million barrels/day, which may reduce the future refinery operating rate expectations [6] Market Impact - After the report was released, oil prices declined in the short term. However, later, oil prices generally rose due to geopolitical risks from Iran's suspension of cooperation with the IAEA and the US - Vietnam trade agreement [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the black - series commodities generally declined. In the second half, prices may fall again to find cost support and then gradually stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter due to production cuts and policy expectations [2] - The cost decline is an important factor in the decline of steel prices. In 2025, the high iron - water output did not drive up steel prices because of the loose supply of upstream raw materials [3][10] - Manufacturing and exports supported steel demand in the first half of 2025. However, the demand growth rate may slow down in the second half [40][48] - The output of crude steel is expected to decline year - on - year in the second half of 2025. The iron - water output may show a pattern of first stabilizing, then declining, and then increasing [71] - Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory. The steel industry chain will jointly seek cost support, and prices may gradually stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter [74][78] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost and Supply - **Coal**: In the first half of 2025, domestic coking coal production increased, with the output from January to April at 156.53 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Although production decreased in May due to safety inspections, it is expected to gradually recover in July. Imports remained at a high level, and the total domestic coking coal supply in the first half is expected to increase by 8.5 million tons year - on - year [14] - **Iron ore**: In February, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons year - on - year due to hurricanes. The shipments basically remained flat in the first half. The expected increase in 2025 is less than the end - of - 2024 forecast, about 11 million tons, and is expected to exceed 40 million tons in 2026 [20][33] Demand - **Manufacturing**: In the first half of 2025, the steel demand in manufacturing increased. From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles, home appliances, and machinery all increased. However, the demand growth rate may slow down in the second half [40][48] - **Export**: From January to May 2025, steel exports reached 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Although exports to Vietnam decreased, those to other regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America increased. Indirect exports also increased, but may face pressure in the second half [44] - **Infrastructure**: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment growth rate was 5.6%, but it declined from April to May, especially in May. The steel demand in the infrastructure industry is facing a differentiated situation [47] - **Real estate**: From January to May 2025, the new construction area of real estate decreased by 22.8% year - on - year. The real estate data weakened again from April to May, and the new construction is expected to remain weak in the second half [63][65] Production and Inventory - **Production**: The average daily iron - water output in the first half of 2025 was around 2.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The iron - water output in the second half may show a pattern of first stabilizing, then declining, and then increasing. The production of crude steel is expected to decline year - on - year in the second half [71] - **Inventory**: Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The iron ore inventory of steel mills and the coking coal inventory of coking plants are at low levels and tend to decline further [74] Price Trend - In the short term, the prices of raw materials have rebounded. However, from July to August, the black - series commodities may weaken again. As production cuts progress, the bottom may be gradually found, and prices may stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter [78]

Report Title - The report is titled "Asphalt Weekly Report: Return to a Relatively Strong Fundamental Situation" [1] Report Date - The report is dated June 27, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Last week's view: Although asphalt prices were rising, it had the smallest increase among crude oil products and was a suitable short - allocation variety during significant oil price fluctuations. Its recent trend mainly followed the cost - end crude oil, and despite good fundamentals, it was difficult to stand out in the sharply rising oil prices due to short - term events [7] - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt prices continued to rise in a volatile manner, generally following the sharp increase in cost - end crude oil [7] - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand from refineries increased. Refinery inventories decreased to a certain extent and remained at a low level compared to the same period. Social inventories also decreased slightly. Overall data this year is significantly better than last year and shows a marginal improvement [7] - This week's view: With the end of the Middle East conflict, asphalt is no longer a suitable short - allocation variety during significant oil price fluctuations. After reverting to its own logic, asphalt with good fundamentals is expected to have a volatile and upward - trending price [7] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - The section presents graphs of asphalt futures trends, including the main asphalt price, the spread between September and December contracts, and the basis in East China and Shandong regions. The data sources are Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - It shows graphs of asphalt plant operating rates, weekly asphalt production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate. The data source is Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - This part includes graphs of asphalt shipment volume, apparent asphalt consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by apparent asphalt consumption. The data source is Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - It presents graphs of asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - The section shows graphs of refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes. The data source is Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - It includes graphs of operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in Shandong. The data source is Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - This part presents graphs of operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in East China. The data source is Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - It shows graphs of operating rates, shipment volumes, refinery inventories, and social inventories in South China. The data source is Steel Union Data [30][31][32] Asphalt Production Enterprise Maintenance Information - Multiple enterprises are undergoing maintenance, including Jiangsu Xinhai, Xinjiang Tianzhize, etc. The total annual production capacity of the maintained units is 18.16 million tons, and the maintenance loss is 681,000 tons [33]

Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly data report shows that inventories decreased across the board, and the apparent demand for gasoline strengthened [1] Group 2: Key Data - As of June 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 415.106 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 5.836 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 464,000 barrels, while strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels, also contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels [2] Group 3: Data Changes - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.836 million barrels from June 13 to June 20 [3] - U.S. strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels during the same period [3] - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels [3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels per day, and net imports increased by 531,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased by 125,000 barrels per day [3] - The four-week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 67,750 barrels per day, and gasoline apparent demand increased by 59,000 barrels per day [3] Group 4: Report Analysis - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell below the five-year seasonal low for the second consecutive week. Strong refinery demand and low net imports contributed to the decline [4] - The EIA report is relatively positive. Both surface and internal data are strong, with significant inventory decreases and improving demand [6] - Gasoline demand has recovered, leading to an unexpected decline in gasoline inventories despite high refinery utilization. Gasoline inventories are generally neutral [9] - Distillate demand has improved marginally but remains relatively low compared to the same period in previous years [9]

Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Report's core view: The EIA report is relatively positive as gasoline demand improves and overall terminal demand rises. Despite inventory drops influenced by进出口 factors, the US domestic oil market shows peak - season characteristics. However, the market focuses more on the Middle - East conflict and ignores institutional reports and fundamentals [8] Key Data Summary - As of June 13, US commercial crude oil inventory was 420,942 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 114,730 thousand barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 18,000 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 9,950 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 2,300 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory increased by 2,090 thousand barrels, less than the expected increase of 6,000 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 5,140 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 4,000 thousand barrels [2][3] - US crude oil net imports decreased by 174,700 thousand barrels per day, and refinery throughput decreased by 36,400 thousand barrels per day. Refinery operating rate dropped 1.1% to 93.2% [3][4] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 90 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 163.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 83.5 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 40.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Market Situation - After the data release, oil prices continued to decline. The market focused on the Middle - East Iran - Israel conflict and ignored institutional reports and fundamentals. News of Iranian planes flying to Oman caused a short - term oil price drop, but subsequent Iranian denials restored oil prices [8]

期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 淡季来临，压力仍在 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年6月6日 01 行情观点 02 基本面分析 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS ➢ 钢价走弱的原因一是需求缺乏亮点，关税背景下又加大了出口的担忧；二是原材料供应宽松，即使在铁水产量同比增加的情况下，依 然累库，成本给予不了支撑。进入6月，需求季节性走弱的压力在，铁水目前处于高位，所以还需要减产才能达到新的平衡，原材料 在没有供给出现明显收缩前，还会下跌，进而带动钢价走弱。 • 1.需求有往下的压力； • 2.原材料供应释放，导致成本下行； • 3.投机需求差，企业主动去库。 ➢ 风险提示： • 行政限产促使钢材供给收缩或者国内重大刺激导致需求增幅超预期，进而促使价格走强。 01 行情观点 1、行情观点 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 螺纹表观消费（万吨） 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 热卷表观消费（万吨） 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Weekly Report - Fluctuating with Costs [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view: It was the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season would affect demand, weakening the strength of asphalt, but it was still expected to be stronger than crude oil products in the same period [7] - This week's price trend: This week, asphalt fluctuated in place, generally following the cost-side crude oil without additional upward momentum [7] - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand of refineries increased, and both factory and social inventories were at low levels compared to the same period, providing some support for pricing before the peak season. However, the impact of the rainy season on demand needed to be considered in the short term [7] - This week's view: It is still the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season will affect demand, and the recent repair of asphalt profits has boosted the willingness to start work. It is expected that the previous relative strength will be weakened [7] Group 4: Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The report presents data on asphalt futures trends, monthly spreads (BU6 - BU9), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data includes asphalt plant operating rates, weekly asphalt production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Data on asphalt shipments, apparent asphalt consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption from 2020 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - The report shows data on asphalt imports, exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Information on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes from 2021 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Data on Shandong's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The report includes data on East China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Information on South China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table shows the maintenance information of multiple refineries, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time. The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 20.36 million tons, and the maintenance loss is 738,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, oil prices generally fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound in oil prices at the beginning of the month, but the uncertainty after the suspension period and the continuous accelerated production increase of OPEC+ suppressed the upside space. Unless major countries make significant concessions to the US, tariff friction will re - affect the market to some extent after the 90 - day suspension period [16]. - OPEC+ has promoted an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months, strengthening the tone of accelerated production increase. The oil market may face continuous accelerated production increase in the future [16]. - Under the resonance of weak macro and micro fundamentals, the long - term trend of oil prices is weak. However, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for crude oil consumption, which may resist the downward trend to some extent [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Saudi OSP - **Price Changes in July Compared to June**: - **Asia**: Saudi Arabia slightly lowered the premiums/discounts of crude oil sold to Asia in June. For July, all grades of crude oil were lowered by $0 - 0.2 per barrel, and after the reduction, they remained at a nearly two - year low [5][10]. - **Mediterranean and Europe**: All grades of crude oil's premiums/discounts to the Mediterranean and Europe were raised by $1.8 per barrel. After the increase, the premiums/discounts were near a one - and - a - half - year high [5][10]. - **America**: All grades of crude oil were raised by $0 - 0.1 per barrel, and the absolute value was still the highest globally. Saudi Arabia exports less crude oil to the Americas [10]. - **Analysis of Saudi's Actions**: The general reduction of premiums/discounts in Asia, combined with Saudi Arabia's continuous push for OPEC+ to accelerate production increase, shows that the accelerated production increase is an action by Saudi Arabia to seize market share. The increase in premiums/discounts in Europe is because the narrowing of the Brent - WTI spread makes it more expensive for Europe to buy US crude oil, increasing its interest in crude oil from other regions [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Conditions - **Price Trend**: In May, oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound at the beginning. The uncertainty after the 90 - day suspension period and OPEC+'s continuous accelerated production increase limited the upside. The long - term trend of oil prices is weak, but the third - quarter peak season may resist the decline [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Position Report**: The net long positions of Brent management funds are more supply - dependent. The net long positions increased significantly in the week ending April 1st due to supply tightening. However, with OPEC+'s accelerated production increase and macro risks, the net long positions have dropped significantly and remained low [19]. - **WTI Crude Oil Position Report**: WTI futures net long positions focus more on the macro - situation. Due to poor economic prospects, the net long positions of WTI management funds declined earlier this year and remained low. After a sharp drop in WTI oil prices, the net long positions recovered slightly due to short - covering but then continued to decline slowly [22]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure**: The near - month structure of each crude oil futures generally remains in Back, but the shape has flattened significantly. Except for SC crude oil, the far - month structure has all turned to Contango, reflecting strong current situation and weak expectations [25]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spread**: Similar to the forward curve, M1 - M12 is generally below M1 - M6 and M1 - M9, but M1 - M2 remains strong. The M1 - M2 of Middle - East Oman crude oil is the weakest due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the Middle East [28]. - **Cross - Market Futures Spread**: In the past month, Brent has been continuously weakening against WTI's first - line contract. The narrowing of the spread between the two main contracts is more obvious, with a difference of only $0.66 per barrel at the time of writing, compared with $3.02 per barrel on May 5th. This increases the cost of European imports of US crude oil, explaining the decrease in US crude oil exports and Saudi Arabia's significant increase in European premiums/discounts [31]. - **Cross - Market Spot Spread**: The spot price spread between Brent and WTI shows similar changes to the futures [33]. - **Refined Product Spot Price**: The overall trend of refined products follows that of crude oil. During the new round of decline at the end of April, the decline speed of refined products slowed down slightly. In late May, the prices of refined products showed signs of weakness when crude oil prices changed little, which is a bad signal considering the approaching US driving peak season [35][36]. - **Refined Product Spot Crack**: During the oil price decline at the end of April, the crack spreads in various regions rebounded slightly due to the slower decline of refined products. This reflects that short - term "terminal demand has not significantly declined" supports the refined product market under the influence of trade friction and OPEC+ policies. However, the crack spreads turned downward in late May when crude oil prices fluctuated little, indicating weakening terminal demand [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that the first week of the driving peak season saw a slump in gasoline apparent demand. The report is bearish, and the market reacted with a decline after its release. If the phenomenon of weak demand in the peak season persists, the rapidly rising refined oil inventory will soon force upstream producers to reduce production [1][9] Summary by Related Catalog Main Data - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 576,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 509,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.23 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.408 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 389,000 barrels per day to 2.439 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day to 16.998 million barrels per day [3] - Apparent demand for various oil products decreased: U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 113,500 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 92,500 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 65,500 barrels per day [3] Report Review - The larger - than - expected decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to a significant increase in refinery operations. The weekly refinery utilization rate increased by 3.2% to 93.4%, driving an increase in crude oil feedstock volume [4] - In the refined oil segment, fuel demand dropped significantly after the Memorial Day, the start of the traditional demand peak season. Gasoline inventories rose sharply as terminal demand consumption was relatively slow after mid - level nodes such as gas stations stocked up before the holiday, leading to insufficient motivation for further stocking [8]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA weekly data report, indicating that peak - season stocking drives demand up but fails to reverse the downward trend [1] Group 2: Main Data - As of May 23, US commercial crude oil inventory was 440.363 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.795 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.118 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 75 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 820 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.441 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.5 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 0.724 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.5 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production increased from 13.392 million barrels per day to 13.401 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 532 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 162 thousand barrels per day [3] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 272 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 88.5 thousand barrels per day; distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 85.75 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 57.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Comments - Last week, the unexpected decline in US commercial crude oil inventory was mainly due to reduced net imports. This week, the sluggish US crude oil exports improved, and imports increased week - on - week, leading to the inventory decline. The weekly refinery utilization rate ended a five - week increase, decreasing by 0.5% to 90.2% [4] - The EIA report this week is bullish as both crude oil and refined product inventories are lower than expected, and peak - season stocking is reflected in the implied demand data. However, whether the stocking can remain strong depends on actual terminal demand. The US consumer confidence index has been falling for months [6] - Yesterday, oil prices fell because the US government's appeal allowed a previously blocked tariff policy to continue, and tonight's OPEC + eight - nation meeting may push for accelerated production in July. The EIA weekly data can only briefly slow down the downward trend [6] - Memorial Day on Monday this week is the start of the traditional peak demand season in the US. In the report as of last Friday, fuel demand generally rebounded, showing that mid - tier nodes such as gas stations stocked up in advance, leading to refined product inventories being generally lower than expected [8]