2025-04-24 10:02:28 EIA周度数据报告 摘要:表观需求全面增加,带动成品油库存大幅下降 EIA周度报告点评 主要数据 -照: 截止4月18日，美国商业原油总库存为44310.4万桶，环比增加24.4万桶，与预期的减少80万桶相反，交割地库欣库存减少8.6万桶。战略储备库存 增加46.8万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少447.6万桶，超过预期的减少140万桶，馏分油库存减少235.3万桶，低于预期的持平。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 4月11日 | 4月18日 | 型化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 442860 | 443104 | 244 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 25105 | 25019 | -86 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 397009 | 397477 | 468 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 234019 | 229543 | -4476 | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 109231 | 106878 | -2353 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1605634 | 1605365 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The impact of tariffs on global commodity demand and domestic steel exports remains highly uncertain, but iron ore prices have already reflected a rather pessimistic outlook. The 09 contract dropped to a minimum of 670.5 yuan/ton last week, corresponding to a US dollar index of around 85, indicating an annual iron ore surplus of about 30 million tons. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand balance of iron ore won't be very loose, with a slight inventory build - up at ports expected according to the balance sheet. With the expectation of tariff relaxation and domestic policy support, iron ore prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound [7]. - This week's price trend: Iron ore prices rose first and then fell this week, mainly driven by finished steel. Given the weak export outlook and the potential short - term peak in domestic demand, the market is trading on the logic of macro - expectations and fundamental production cuts [7]. - This week's view: Vale and Rio Tinto released their quarterly production and sales reports, showing a year - on - year decline in Q1 production with no change in production targets. Recently, shipments from non - mainstream mines have decreased. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable. Against the backdrop of a high basis and pre - holiday steel mill restocking, it is suitable for long positions. However, the pressure on single - sided positions lies in finished steel. Although the inventory reduction speed of rebar and hot - rolled coils is good this period, market concerns about exports are still obvious due to tariff frictions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Tariff impact on demand and exports is uncertain, but iron ore prices reflected pessimism. The 09 contract hit a low, suggesting an annual surplus. First - half supply - demand is not overly loose, and prices may rebound with tariff and policy expectations [7]. - This week's price movement: Prices fluctuated due to finished steel, and the market traded on macro and production - cut logics [7]. - This week's view: Quarterly reports showed production decline, non - mainstream shipments decreased. Short - term fundamentals are okay, suitable for long positions with basis and restocking factors. Single - sided pressure comes from finished steel, and an arbitrage strategy is recommended [7]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights 3.2.1 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,200 tons. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased significantly. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons, and then increased by 418,000 tons in another comparison. Australian shipments were 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 232,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.368 million tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The resumption speed of steel mills has slowed down, and the first - half peak of pig iron output may be around 2.43 million tons. Steel apparent demand continued to increase, and the inventory reduction speed was acceptable. However, seasonally, the demand peak is likely to occur from late April to early May, and the future steel export outlook is poor, so iron ore demand faces downward pressure [13]. 3.2.3 Port Inventory - The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,400 tons. The port inventory was 140.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8502 million tons, indicating continued inventory reduction. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 90.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 242,100 tons [16]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts 3.3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Data shows the prices and price changes of Qingdao Port PB powder, Super Special powder, and the basis over several days in April 2025 [21]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread - Multiple charts show the price differences between different iron ore varieties such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba powder, PB lump, etc. over the years from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.3.5 Pig Iron Output - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and daily average pig iron output data are presented, showing changes over time. For example, on April 18, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% [36].

期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 01 周度观点 沥青周报 跟随油价反弹 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月18日 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：由于关税政策尚未稳定，短期原油仍有波动可能，预计沥青总体跟随成本端为主，但随 着最密集地反制、政策调整期已经过去，波动率有望逐步下降。沥青实际刚需依然偏弱，不过北方天气 晴好有利于需求季节性修复，预计不会短期对盘面形成额外冲击。 本周走势分析：本周沥青后半周走高，总体跟随成本端原油波动。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需均有所走强，不过与往年同期相比依然偏弱，尤其是炼厂出货量。与此对 应的是，厂库社库同时走高，同样处于历史偏低位置。 本周主要观点：今年沥青很可能复制去年的格局，通过低开工率补偿低需求量，不过这种主动性去库难 以对价格产生实质性提振。沥青实际刚需依然季节性偏弱，油价下跌带来的利润改善引发的开工上行或 难以持续，预计沥青弱势跟随原油波动。 风险提示：成本端波动风险，沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 资料来源：钢联数据 2.3 ...

主要能源机构4月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月16日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2024Q3 102.68 103.01 -0.32 +0.03 2024Q4 103.28 103.15 +0.12 +0.26 2024 102.75 102.74 +0.01 +0.09 2025Q1 103.34 103.53 -0.19 +0.30 2025Q2 103.73 103.17 +0.55 +0.61 2025Q3 104.46 103.78 +0.68 +0.65 2025Q4 104.87 104.09 +0.77 +0.13 2025 104.10 103.65 +0.45 +0.42 资料来源：EIA 全球原油平衡 EIA在4月报告中大幅强化了今年供应过剩的程度（3万桶/日 →45万桶/日），扭转了3月份的弱化，使得今年供应过剩缺口 预测值超过了之前所有月度报告 供应端，EIA全面下调了今明两年除了今年第二季度以外，所 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to low refinery operations and increased shipments, asphalt factory inventory dropped to a low level for the same period, and the fundamentals improved slightly. However, actual demand remained weak, and asphalt only followed crude oil price fluctuations [8]. - This week, asphalt started with a daily limit down and then fluctuated widely, generally following the cost - end crude oil. The refinery operating rate increased slightly, shipments declined significantly, and factory and social inventories increased slightly, with absolute levels lower than in previous years [8]. - Since the tariff policy is unstable, crude oil may still fluctuate in the short term. It is expected that asphalt will mainly follow the cost - end, but as the most intensive period of counter - measures and policy adjustments has passed, volatility is expected to gradually decline. Actual demand for asphalt remains weak, but good weather in the north is conducive to seasonal demand recovery and is not expected to impact the market in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoint - **Last Week's Main Viewpoint**: Low refinery operations and increased shipments led to a decline in asphalt factory inventory to a low level for the same period, with slightly improved fundamentals. Actual demand was weak, and asphalt followed crude oil price fluctuations. The US tariff policy might cause oil price fluctuations [8]. - **This Week's Trend Analysis**: Asphalt started with a daily limit down and then fluctuated widely, following the cost - end crude oil [8]. - **This Week's Industry Data**: The refinery operating rate increased slightly, shipments declined significantly, and factory and social inventories increased slightly, with absolute levels lower than in previous years [8]. - **This Week's Main Viewpoint**: Crude oil may still fluctuate in the short term due to unstable tariff policies. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end, and volatility may gradually decline. Actual demand is weak, but northern weather is favorable for demand recovery and won't impact the market in the short term [8]. 02 Data Overview - **2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis**: The data shows historical trends of asphalt futures prices, monthly spreads (e.g., BU2506 - BU2509), and basis in East China and Shandong regions [10][11]. - **2.2 Asphalt Supply**: It presents data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate over multiple years [13][14]. - **2.3 Asphalt Demand**: The data includes asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent consumption [16][17]. - **2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports**: It shows historical data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China, as well as the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices [19][20]. - **2.5 Asphalt Inventory**: The data covers factory inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume [22][23]. - **2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: It presents data on Shandong's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [25][26]. - **2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: It shows data on East China's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [28][29]. - **2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: It presents data on South China's asphalt operating rate, shipments, factory inventory, and social inventory over multiple years [31][32]. - **2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule**: Multiple refineries are undergoing or have undergone maintenance. The total maintenance capacity is 2041 million tons per year, and the maintenance loss is 836,000 tons [34].

EIA周度数据报告 2025-04-10 10:41:08 摘要:市场小透明,预计反弹空间有限 上周美国原油库存超预期增加，成品油中馏分油库存意外大降，主要归功于持续进行的春检。周度炼厂开工率增加0.7%至86.7%，依然处于较低 区域，显示检修持续进行。较往年持续更久的春检使得库存不断从下游转移到上游，而相对疲软的终端需求使得原油链总库存有所增加。 EIA間度 REAT 主要数据一览: 截止4月4日，美国商业原油总库存为44234.5万桶，环比增加255.3万桶，超过预期的增加140万桶，交割地库欣库存增加68.1万桶。战略储备库存 增加27.6万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少160.0万桶，超过预期的减少150万桶，馏分油库存减少354.4万桶，与预期的增加30万桶大相径庭。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 3月28日 | 4月4日 | 变化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 439792 | 442345 | 2553 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 25078 | 25759 | 681 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 3964 ...

沙特5月官价以及近期油价一览 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月7日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 1.1 沙特OSP | 沙特OSP | | 5月 | | 4月 | | 变化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 至亚洲(对阿曼/迪拜) | | | | | | | | 超轻 | 1 . | 75 | 4 | 05 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 特轻 | 1 . | 00 | 3 | 30 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 轻质 | 1 . | 20 | 3 | 50 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 中质 | 0 . | 65 | 2 | 95 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 重质 | 0 - . | 50 | 1 | 80 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 至地中海(对布伦特加权) | | | | | | | | 特轻 | 4 . | 05 | 4 | 55 . | 0 - | 50 . | | 轻质 | 2 . | 35 | 2 | 85 . | - 0 | 50 . ...

2025-04-03 10:14:30 EIA周度数据报告 EIA周度报告点评 主要数据一览: 截止3月28日，美国商业原油总库存为43979.2万桶，环比增加616.5万桶，与预期的下降210万桶大相径庭，交割地库欣库存增加237.3万桶。战略 储备库存增加28.5万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少155.1万桶，不及预期的减少170万桶，馏分油库存增加26.4万桶，与预期的减少100万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 3月21日 | 3月28日 | 变化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 433627 | 439792 | 6165 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22705 | 25078 | 2373 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 396149 | 396434 | 285 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 239128 | 237577 | -1551 | | | 美国馆分油库存 | 114362 | 114626 | 264 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1600254 | 1605891 | 5637 | | | ...

01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 原油周报 美国超预期加征关税令市场重新定价 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月3日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 上周周报观点：与美国关税政策对需求破坏和特朗普衰退交易相比，供应端的扰动影响更加贴近近端， 且更容易实际上起效。考虑到需求端也将面临季节性改善，预计油价短期维持企稳反弹态势。 本周走势分析：在周四美国超预期加税导致油价下跌之前，油价保持震荡偏强势头，总体由于供应端 收紧。 本周主要观点： • 基本面：近月月差显示供需有所收紧，美国裂解持续好转。（2.1-2.2） • 美国关税：美国超预期关税打压经济预期（2.5） • OPEC+：补偿性减产使得二季度增产变为减产（2.6） • 美国制裁：美国威胁对俄罗斯和伊朗石油采取二级关税，进一步加剧供应端扰动（2.7） • 周度观点：由于美国推出的一揽子制裁超过市场预期，以及多国表示将发动反制，市场需要在宏 观角度进行重新定价。尽管现货流动仍然紧平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Last Week's Main Viewpoint**: Asphalt has been weak recently, affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil and a slowdown in its own fundamentals. Some southern refineries offered preferential policies to stimulate shipments, and the overall market sentiment was average. It was expected to remain weakly stable in the short term, and caution was advised regarding further declines in the cost - end [8]. - **This Week's Trend Analysis**: This week, the tightening of crude oil supply at the cost - end stimulated its price to rise, and asphalt followed the upward trend of crude oil [8]. - **This Week's Industry Data**: This week, the refinery operating rate remained at a low level, while the shipment volume continued to increase. The refinery inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, showing an overall marginal improvement [8]. - **This Week's Main Viewpoint**: Affected by the continuous low refinery operating rate and the steady increase in shipment volume, the asphalt refinery inventory decreased, and the fundamentals improved slightly. However, the actual rigid demand remained weak. Therefore, asphalt only fluctuated with the crude oil price and had no independent additional trend. It is expected to follow the stable rebound trend of crude oil in the short term, and caution is advised regarding cost - end fluctuations [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Analyzed the reasons for the weak performance of asphalt last week, including the decline in crude oil prices and the slowdown of its own fundamentals. This week, due to the tightening of crude oil supply, asphalt followed the upward trend of crude oil. The refinery operating rate was low, shipments increased, refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but rigid demand was still weak [8]. 3.2 Data Overview - **2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis**: Provided historical data on asphalt futures price trends, monthly spreads (such as BU2506 - BU2509), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [10][11]. - **2.2 Asphalt Supply**: Presented data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [13][14]. - **2.3 Asphalt Demand**: Showed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by asphalt apparent consumption from 2020 - 2025 [16][17]. - **2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports**: Displayed data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [19][20]. - **2.5 Asphalt Inventory**: Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume from 2021 - 2025 [22][23]. - **2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Provided data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong from 2020 - 2025 [25][26]. - **2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Showed data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China from 2020 - 2025 [28][29]. - **2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Presented data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. - **2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule**: Listed the production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacities, maintenance start times, and undetermined end times of refineries. The total production capacity under maintenance was 20.41 million tons/year, and the maintenance loss was 818,500 tons [34].