主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EIA Weekly Data Report - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 - **Report Author**: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, finished steel products may face pressure, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production, with a high probability of molten iron production reaching its peak. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts require further compression of steel mill profits to ease supply pressure. The unilateral drive of finished steel products may continue downward, but the absolute prices are not low, so the risk of chasing short positions is relatively high. It is recommended to focus on short - profit positions [2][62] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - In April, although there were many expectations of steel mill production restrictions, no definite documents were issued. Steel mills maintained good profits, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises around 60%, higher than in 2024. In the traditional peak demand season of April, steel products were destocked, and steel mills had little inventory pressure, so they had little willingness to cut production actively. In the first quarter, the crude steel output increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In April, the output of the five major steel products increased by 2.04% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year, and the daily average molten iron output was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. It is expected that the crude steel output in April will increase by about 4% year - on - year. In May, due to better profits than in 2024 and seasonal factors, supply is expected to increase further [3][9] Demand - In April, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to improve, with an average of 933310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the year - on - year decline rate was narrowing. The decrease was mainly due to the building materials sector. The average apparent demand for rebar in April was 265570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.01%. The demand for plates was good. In the first week of May, the data decreased significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to be related to holidays and pre - holiday stockpiling, and the demand was relatively stable on a two - week average. The manufacturing industry performed well in the first quarter, with manufacturing investment from January to March increasing by 9.1% year - on - year. Benefiting from policies, the steel demand in the automotive, home appliance, and machinery manufacturing industries increased. In April, the high - frequency data showed that the demand for automobiles and home appliances was still strong, and the growth rate accelerated. However, the manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export order index was 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The real estate sector still dragged down steel demand, but some data improved. The infrastructure demand was better than in 2024, and the direct export in the first half of the year is expected to maintain growth [10][13][24] Inventory - In April, the destocking speed of rebar accelerated, with a weekly destocking of about 50000 tons at the end of the month, basically the same as in 2024, and the inventory at the end of the month was only 653630 tons. In May, rebar faces the pressure of slower destocking, and enterprises are actively destocking. Hot - rolled coils have strong supply and demand and have been destocking since March, with inventory significantly lower than in 2024. However, the supply pressure of cold - rolled coils is high, and there was basically no destocking in April, and the price difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils narrowed. Plates still face inventory pressure [41] Raw Materials - In addition to export factors, the weakness of raw materials is an important factor in the decline of steel prices, mainly coking coal. High supply and high upstream inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. Currently, the 09 contract has fallen below 900, and there are expectations of a decline in domestic and some imported coal supplies. The core factor for price fluctuations is demand. Coke mainly follows coking coal. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is low, and the total inventory is higher than in 2024. After the first price increase, whether another increase can be implemented is driven by the price of finished steel products. In the first quarter, the global iron ore shipment decreased by about 8 million tons year - on - year, and there was no year - on - year increase in April. Considering the high molten iron production, the pressure of iron ore inventory accumulation in the second quarter is not large, and the 09 contract is deeply discounted against the spot, which also supports the futures price. Overall, raw material supply is not the main problem, and the price decline in April was mainly due to poor steel demand expectations, and the core driver in May is still expected to be demand [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA report this week is relatively neutral. Although gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, the increase was small and crude oil inventories declined more than expected. The refinery operating rate is gradually recovering, with good basic data. However, other demand in the industrial sector performed poorly, and inventories showed a seasonal increase, dragging down the positive impact of the report [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data - As of May 2nd, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 438.376 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.032 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 740,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 580,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 1.107 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels per day to 13.367 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day [3]. - The refinery processing volume decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 16.071 million barrels per day, and the terminal apparent demand for crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 97,750 barrels per day to 19.756 million barrels per day [3]. Report Analysis - The refinery maintenance season this year, which is slightly longer than usual, may be gradually coming to an end as the weekly refinery operating rate has increased for the third consecutive week, rising 0.4% to 89.0% [4]. - The recent decline in U.S. crude oil production is mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new - well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is WTK $5 per barrel [4]. - The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories may be due to the recent continuous decline in prices, which has boosted demand. Other refined product inventories, mainly industrial products, have continued to increase seasonally, consistent with their weak demand [6]. - The decline in oil prices last night was due to the smooth signal from the U.S. - Iran negotiations, which reduced the risk of Iranian crude oil supply disruption, and the Fed's statement of increased two - way risks, which lowered short - term risk appetite [8].

202504原油展望报告 山雨欲来风满楼 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月30日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 回顾总结 02 原油市场分析 目录 CONTENTS 50 60 70 80 90 100 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 WTI 布伦特 阿曼 SC 3月主要观点：当前原油实物市场依然偏紧，且OPEC+的补偿性减产和美国制裁将收紧供应端输出。预 计油价将进入企稳反弹阶段，更长期的尺度我们维持供应过剩观点。 行情回顾：由于特朗普美国时间4月2日推出的关税政策远超预期，市场风险偏好急剧下降，此后 OPEC+决定5月加速增产，使得宏微观边际共振向下。 1.2 4月原油展望报告总结 4月主要观点： 01 回顾总结 1.1 2月原油展望报告回顾 基本面： 近月价差相对持坚，但市场更关注疲软预期，而非现实面 美国与伊朗原油之间的牵扯是短期市场最大扰动因素，但预计不会改变总体向下趋势 OPEC+内部矛盾加深，加速增产恐成 ...

原油周报 OPEC+矛盾加剧，全球经济依然承压 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点： 上周周报观点：本周关税战消息趋于平静，油价在利多消息推动下超跌反弹，不过当前市场环境仍然 差于关税战起点，我们预计在进一步利多消息或者关税战戏剧性反转之前油价反弹空间有限。若 OPEC+持续当前的加速增产倾向，预计原油市场将持续面临下行压力。 本周走势分析：本周油价原地震荡，周末美伊谈判传积极信号，周中传OPEC+6月可能继续加速增产令 油价承压，而美国对伊朗制裁、中美贸易谈判流言以及美国可能降低对中国关税支撑油价。 • 现货市场格局：强现实弱预期，价格反应了预期，等待现实向预期靠拢。（2.1） • OPEC+或再加速增产：OPEC+内部矛盾加大，对内转对外风险增加（2.3-2.4） • 宏观面：IMF下调全球经济预测，美联储（2.5-2.6） • 美伊会谈：美国 ...

节前震荡为主 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 周度观点 ➢ 上周主要观点：3月的经济数据超市场预期，实际GDP同比增长5.4%，一线城市地产价格企稳回升，地产销售基本持平，新开工降幅收窄至- 18.7%，狭义基建投资增速同比回升至5.8%。本期钢联的数据也不错，螺纹表需继续回升，热卷环比也有所增加。价格延续弱势，主要还是对 需求的持续性和接下来出口端的担忧，再加上原材料尤其焦煤不断创新低，成本给予的支撑也不够。短期价格再靠近上周低点，市场情绪不佳， 但也没用新的利空，现货也相对抗跌，基差走强，预计震荡为主。 ➢ 本周走势分析：本周盘面止跌反弹，虽然关税对未来需求的影响还会继续，且面临不确定性，但很难再超预期，本周也释放了一些缓和的信号。 ➢ 本周主要观点：基本面上看，钢联数据低于市场预期，尤其螺纹需求，但钢谷的数据不错且螺纹低库存且不断去库下，部分地区已经出现缺规 格现象，热卷的需求还是有一定韧 ...

2025-04-24 10:02:28 EIA周度数据报告 摘要:表观需求全面增加,带动成品油库存大幅下降 EIA周度报告点评 主要数据 -照: 截止4月18日，美国商业原油总库存为44310.4万桶，环比增加24.4万桶，与预期的减少80万桶相反，交割地库欣库存减少8.6万桶。战略储备库存 增加46.8万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少447.6万桶，超过预期的减少140万桶，馏分油库存减少235.3万桶，低于预期的持平。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 4月11日 | 4月18日 | 型化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 442860 | 443104 | 244 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 25105 | 25019 | -86 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 397009 | 397477 | 468 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 234019 | 229543 | -4476 | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 109231 | 106878 | -2353 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1605634 | 1605365 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The impact of tariffs on global commodity demand and domestic steel exports remains highly uncertain, but iron ore prices have already reflected a rather pessimistic outlook. The 09 contract dropped to a minimum of 670.5 yuan/ton last week, corresponding to a US dollar index of around 85, indicating an annual iron ore surplus of about 30 million tons. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand balance of iron ore won't be very loose, with a slight inventory build - up at ports expected according to the balance sheet. With the expectation of tariff relaxation and domestic policy support, iron ore prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound [7]. - This week's price trend: Iron ore prices rose first and then fell this week, mainly driven by finished steel. Given the weak export outlook and the potential short - term peak in domestic demand, the market is trading on the logic of macro - expectations and fundamental production cuts [7]. - This week's view: Vale and Rio Tinto released their quarterly production and sales reports, showing a year - on - year decline in Q1 production with no change in production targets. Recently, shipments from non - mainstream mines have decreased. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable. Against the backdrop of a high basis and pre - holiday steel mill restocking, it is suitable for long positions. However, the pressure on single - sided positions lies in finished steel. Although the inventory reduction speed of rebar and hot - rolled coils is good this period, market concerns about exports are still obvious due to tariff frictions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Tariff impact on demand and exports is uncertain, but iron ore prices reflected pessimism. The 09 contract hit a low, suggesting an annual surplus. First - half supply - demand is not overly loose, and prices may rebound with tariff and policy expectations [7]. - This week's price movement: Prices fluctuated due to finished steel, and the market traded on macro and production - cut logics [7]. - This week's view: Quarterly reports showed production decline, non - mainstream shipments decreased. Short - term fundamentals are okay, suitable for long positions with basis and restocking factors. Single - sided pressure comes from finished steel, and an arbitrage strategy is recommended [7]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights 3.2.1 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,200 tons. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased significantly. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons, and then increased by 418,000 tons in another comparison. Australian shipments were 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 232,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.368 million tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The resumption speed of steel mills has slowed down, and the first - half peak of pig iron output may be around 2.43 million tons. Steel apparent demand continued to increase, and the inventory reduction speed was acceptable. However, seasonally, the demand peak is likely to occur from late April to early May, and the future steel export outlook is poor, so iron ore demand faces downward pressure [13]. 3.2.3 Port Inventory - The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,400 tons. The port inventory was 140.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8502 million tons, indicating continued inventory reduction. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 90.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 242,100 tons [16]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts 3.3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Data shows the prices and price changes of Qingdao Port PB powder, Super Special powder, and the basis over several days in April 2025 [21]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread - Multiple charts show the price differences between different iron ore varieties such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba powder, PB lump, etc. over the years from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.3.5 Pig Iron Output - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and daily average pig iron output data are presented, showing changes over time. For example, on April 18, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% [36].

期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 01 周度观点 沥青周报 跟随油价反弹 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月18日 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：由于关税政策尚未稳定，短期原油仍有波动可能，预计沥青总体跟随成本端为主，但随 着最密集地反制、政策调整期已经过去，波动率有望逐步下降。沥青实际刚需依然偏弱，不过北方天气 晴好有利于需求季节性修复，预计不会短期对盘面形成额外冲击。 本周走势分析：本周沥青后半周走高，总体跟随成本端原油波动。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需均有所走强，不过与往年同期相比依然偏弱，尤其是炼厂出货量。与此对 应的是，厂库社库同时走高，同样处于历史偏低位置。 本周主要观点：今年沥青很可能复制去年的格局，通过低开工率补偿低需求量，不过这种主动性去库难 以对价格产生实质性提振。沥青实际刚需依然季节性偏弱，油价下跌带来的利润改善引发的开工上行或 难以持续，预计沥青弱势跟随原油波动。 风险提示：成本端波动风险，沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 资料来源：钢联数据 2.3 ...