Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly data report shows that inventories decreased across the board, and the apparent demand for gasoline strengthened [1] Group 2: Key Data - As of June 20, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 415.106 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 5.836 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 464,000 barrels, while strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels [2] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels, also contrary to the expected increase of 400,000 barrels [2] Group 3: Data Changes - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.836 million barrels from June 13 to June 20 [3] - U.S. strategic reserve inventories increased by 237,000 barrels during the same period [3] - U.S. gasoline inventories decreased by 2.075 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.066 million barrels [3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels per day, and net imports increased by 531,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased by 125,000 barrels per day [3] - The four-week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 67,750 barrels per day, and gasoline apparent demand increased by 59,000 barrels per day [3] Group 4: Report Analysis - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell below the five-year seasonal low for the second consecutive week. Strong refinery demand and low net imports contributed to the decline [4] - The EIA report is relatively positive. Both surface and internal data are strong, with significant inventory decreases and improving demand [6] - Gasoline demand has recovered, leading to an unexpected decline in gasoline inventories despite high refinery utilization. Gasoline inventories are generally neutral [9] - Distillate demand has improved marginally but remains relatively low compared to the same period in previous years [9]

Report Summary - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Report's core view: The EIA report is relatively positive as gasoline demand improves and overall terminal demand rises. Despite inventory drops influenced by进出口 factors, the US domestic oil market shows peak - season characteristics. However, the market focuses more on the Middle - East conflict and ignores institutional reports and fundamentals [8] Key Data Summary - As of June 13, US commercial crude oil inventory was 420,942 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 114,730 thousand barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 18,000 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 9,950 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 2,300 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory increased by 2,090 thousand barrels, less than the expected increase of 6,000 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 5,140 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 4,000 thousand barrels [2][3] - US crude oil net imports decreased by 174,700 thousand barrels per day, and refinery throughput decreased by 36,400 thousand barrels per day. Refinery operating rate dropped 1.1% to 93.2% [3][4] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 90 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 163.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 83.5 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 40.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Market Situation - After the data release, oil prices continued to decline. The market focused on the Middle - East Iran - Israel conflict and ignored institutional reports and fundamentals. News of Iranian planes flying to Oman caused a short - term oil price drop, but subsequent Iranian denials restored oil prices [8]

期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 淡季来临，压力仍在 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年6月6日 01 行情观点 02 基本面分析 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS ➢ 钢价走弱的原因一是需求缺乏亮点，关税背景下又加大了出口的担忧；二是原材料供应宽松，即使在铁水产量同比增加的情况下，依 然累库，成本给予不了支撑。进入6月，需求季节性走弱的压力在，铁水目前处于高位，所以还需要减产才能达到新的平衡，原材料 在没有供给出现明显收缩前，还会下跌，进而带动钢价走弱。 • 1.需求有往下的压力； • 2.原材料供应释放，导致成本下行； • 3.投机需求差，企业主动去库。 ➢ 风险提示： • 行政限产促使钢材供给收缩或者国内重大刺激导致需求增幅超预期，进而促使价格走强。 01 行情观点 1、行情观点 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 螺纹表观消费（万吨） 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 360 热卷表观消费（万吨） 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Weekly Report - Fluctuating with Costs [1] - Report Date: June 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view: It was the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season would affect demand, weakening the strength of asphalt, but it was still expected to be stronger than crude oil products in the same period [7] - This week's price trend: This week, asphalt fluctuated in place, generally following the cost-side crude oil without additional upward momentum [7] - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand of refineries increased, and both factory and social inventories were at low levels compared to the same period, providing some support for pricing before the peak season. However, the impact of the rainy season on demand needed to be considered in the short term [7] - This week's view: It is still the preparation stage before the traditional peak season, with factory inventories at a low level compared to the same period, boosting asphalt prices. However, the rainy season will affect demand, and the recent repair of asphalt profits has boosted the willingness to start work. It is expected that the previous relative strength will be weakened [7] Group 4: Data Overview 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - The report presents data on asphalt futures trends, monthly spreads (BU6 - BU9), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11] 2.2 Asphalt Supply - The data includes asphalt plant operating rates, weekly asphalt production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14] 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Data on asphalt shipments, apparent asphalt consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption from 2020 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17] 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - The report shows data on asphalt imports, exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported and domestic mainstream prices from 2021 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20] 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Information on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes from 2021 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23] 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Data on Shandong's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2021 - 2025 are presented, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26] 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - The report includes data on East China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29] 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Information on South China's asphalt operating rates, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories from 2020 - 2025 is provided, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32] 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - A table shows the maintenance information of multiple refineries, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time. The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 20.36 million tons, and the maintenance loss is 738,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, oil prices generally fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound in oil prices at the beginning of the month, but the uncertainty after the suspension period and the continuous accelerated production increase of OPEC+ suppressed the upside space. Unless major countries make significant concessions to the US, tariff friction will re - affect the market to some extent after the 90 - day suspension period [16]. - OPEC+ has promoted an accelerated production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for three consecutive months, strengthening the tone of accelerated production increase. The oil market may face continuous accelerated production increase in the future [16]. - Under the resonance of weak macro and micro fundamentals, the long - term trend of oil prices is weak. However, the third quarter is the traditional peak season for crude oil consumption, which may resist the downward trend to some extent [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Saudi OSP - **Price Changes in July Compared to June**: - **Asia**: Saudi Arabia slightly lowered the premiums/discounts of crude oil sold to Asia in June. For July, all grades of crude oil were lowered by $0 - 0.2 per barrel, and after the reduction, they remained at a nearly two - year low [5][10]. - **Mediterranean and Europe**: All grades of crude oil's premiums/discounts to the Mediterranean and Europe were raised by $1.8 per barrel. After the increase, the premiums/discounts were near a one - and - a - half - year high [5][10]. - **America**: All grades of crude oil were raised by $0 - 0.1 per barrel, and the absolute value was still the highest globally. Saudi Arabia exports less crude oil to the Americas [10]. - **Analysis of Saudi's Actions**: The general reduction of premiums/discounts in Asia, combined with Saudi Arabia's continuous push for OPEC+ to accelerate production increase, shows that the accelerated production increase is an action by Saudi Arabia to seize market share. The increase in premiums/discounts in Europe is because the narrowing of the Brent - WTI spread makes it more expensive for Europe to buy US crude oil, increasing its interest in crude oil from other regions [13]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Conditions - **Price Trend**: In May, oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The easing of Sino - US tariff friction led to a slight rebound at the beginning. The uncertainty after the 90 - day suspension period and OPEC+'s continuous accelerated production increase limited the upside. The long - term trend of oil prices is weak, but the third - quarter peak season may resist the decline [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Position Report**: The net long positions of Brent management funds are more supply - dependent. The net long positions increased significantly in the week ending April 1st due to supply tightening. However, with OPEC+'s accelerated production increase and macro risks, the net long positions have dropped significantly and remained low [19]. - **WTI Crude Oil Position Report**: WTI futures net long positions focus more on the macro - situation. Due to poor economic prospects, the net long positions of WTI management funds declined earlier this year and remained low. After a sharp drop in WTI oil prices, the net long positions recovered slightly due to short - covering but then continued to decline slowly [22]. - **Crude Oil Futures Structure**: The near - month structure of each crude oil futures generally remains in Back, but the shape has flattened significantly. Except for SC crude oil, the far - month structure has all turned to Contango, reflecting strong current situation and weak expectations [25]. - **Crude Oil Monthly Spread**: Similar to the forward curve, M1 - M12 is generally below M1 - M6 and M1 - M9, but M1 - M2 remains strong. The M1 - M2 of Middle - East Oman crude oil is the weakest due to OPEC+'s accelerated production increase in the Middle East [28]. - **Cross - Market Futures Spread**: In the past month, Brent has been continuously weakening against WTI's first - line contract. The narrowing of the spread between the two main contracts is more obvious, with a difference of only $0.66 per barrel at the time of writing, compared with $3.02 per barrel on May 5th. This increases the cost of European imports of US crude oil, explaining the decrease in US crude oil exports and Saudi Arabia's significant increase in European premiums/discounts [31]. - **Cross - Market Spot Spread**: The spot price spread between Brent and WTI shows similar changes to the futures [33]. - **Refined Product Spot Price**: The overall trend of refined products follows that of crude oil. During the new round of decline at the end of April, the decline speed of refined products slowed down slightly. In late May, the prices of refined products showed signs of weakness when crude oil prices changed little, which is a bad signal considering the approaching US driving peak season [35][36]. - **Refined Product Spot Crack**: During the oil price decline at the end of April, the crack spreads in various regions rebounded slightly due to the slower decline of refined products. This reflects that short - term "terminal demand has not significantly declined" supports the refined product market under the influence of trade friction and OPEC+ policies. However, the crack spreads turned downward in late May when crude oil prices fluctuated little, indicating weakening terminal demand [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that the first week of the driving peak season saw a slump in gasoline apparent demand. The report is bearish, and the market reacted with a decline after its release. If the phenomenon of weak demand in the peak season persists, the rapidly rising refined oil inventory will soon force upstream producers to reduce production [1][9] Summary by Related Catalog Main Data - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 576,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 509,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.23 million barrels, both exceeding expectations [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.408 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 389,000 barrels per day to 2.439 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day to 16.998 million barrels per day [3] - Apparent demand for various oil products decreased: U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 113,500 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 92,500 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 65,500 barrels per day [3] Report Review - The larger - than - expected decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to a significant increase in refinery operations. The weekly refinery utilization rate increased by 3.2% to 93.4%, driving an increase in crude oil feedstock volume [4] - In the refined oil segment, fuel demand dropped significantly after the Memorial Day, the start of the traditional demand peak season. Gasoline inventories rose sharply as terminal demand consumption was relatively slow after mid - level nodes such as gas stations stocked up before the holiday, leading to insufficient motivation for further stocking [8]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an EIA weekly data report, indicating that peak - season stocking drives demand up but fails to reverse the downward trend [1] Group 2: Main Data - As of May 23, US commercial crude oil inventory was 440.363 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.795 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.118 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 75 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 820 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.441 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.5 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 0.724 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.5 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production increased from 13.392 million barrels per day to 13.401 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 532 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 162 thousand barrels per day [3] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 272 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 88.5 thousand barrels per day; distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 85.75 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 57.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Comments - Last week, the unexpected decline in US commercial crude oil inventory was mainly due to reduced net imports. This week, the sluggish US crude oil exports improved, and imports increased week - on - week, leading to the inventory decline. The weekly refinery utilization rate ended a five - week increase, decreasing by 0.5% to 90.2% [4] - The EIA report this week is bullish as both crude oil and refined product inventories are lower than expected, and peak - season stocking is reflected in the implied demand data. However, whether the stocking can remain strong depends on actual terminal demand. The US consumer confidence index has been falling for months [6] - Yesterday, oil prices fell because the US government's appeal allowed a previously blocked tariff policy to continue, and tonight's OPEC + eight - nation meeting may push for accelerated production in July. The EIA weekly data can only briefly slow down the downward trend [6] - Memorial Day on Monday this week is the start of the traditional peak demand season in the US. In the report as of last Friday, fuel demand generally rebounded, showing that mid - tier nodes such as gas stations stocked up in advance, leading to refined product inventories being generally lower than expected [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report is bearish. Crude oil and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased across the board, crude oil exports continued to weaken, and terminal demand was weak, reducing the possibility of a reversal in crude oil demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Data - As of May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.158 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 843,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 579,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.582 million barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 211,000 barrels per day to 19.6245 million barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 192,500 barrels per day to 8.81325 million barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 122,750 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 68,500 barrels per day to 1.6865 million barrels per day [3]. 3.2 Report Comment - The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to continued low crude oil exports and increased net imports. The four - week smoothed export volume hit a new low, indicating weakening global crude oil demand [4]. - The weekly refinery utilization rate increased for the fifth consecutive week by 0.5% to 90.7%, suggesting that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be coming to an end [4]. - U.S. crude oil production has declined recently, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is $65 per barrel of WTI [4]. - The strong gasoline demand momentum that exceeded the seasonal norm suddenly stopped, leading to an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories. With the approaching Memorial Day, the poor performance of gasoline demand is worrying. Distillate demand hit a 13 - month low, corresponding to the weakening manufacturing PMI [6]. 3.3 Market Impact - The EIA report was bearish. Inventory increases, weakening exports, and weak terminal demand all pointed to a weak oil market. The U.S. EIA report on the night before last contributed to the decline in oil prices, resulting in a negative daily line [8]. - Oil prices opened higher yesterday due to news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the lack of a realistic basis for such an attack led to a subsequent decline in oil prices [8].

Report Title - 202505 Crude Oil Outlook Report: Superposition of Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, and Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance [1] Report Date - May 21, 2025 [2] Report Author - Xiao Yu, Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016296 [2] 1. Review Summary 1.1 4 - Month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - **4 - Month Main View**: In a sharply deteriorating macro - atmosphere, OPEC+ not only did not resist but accelerated production increases. The $70 support level for Brent crude oil became an insurmountable resistance level. With continued macro - turmoil, market confidence was increasingly fragile, and a bearish view was maintained [7]. - **Market Review**: Sino - US trade negotiation results drove a limited market rebound, and subsequent changes in US - Iran negotiations were the main factor causing short - term oil price fluctuations [8]. 1.2 5 - Month Main View - **Fundamentals**: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectations, with a long - term bearish outlook. OPEC+ accelerating production increases may become the norm, and the relationship between US and Iranian crude oil is the biggest short - term market disturbance factor [9]. - **Non - fundamentals**: The US has entered a general tariff suspension period, but future pressure remains [9]. - **May Conclusion**: With OPEC+'s signal of accelerating production increases becoming clearer and long - term macro - pressure still existing, oil prices tend to be weak in the medium and long term. However, currently, crude oil is in a seasonally strong reality state, and with the outcome of Iranian crude oil still to be determined, the short - term market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [9]. 2. Crude Oil Market Analysis 2.1 Near - Month Spreads Indicate Tight Spot Supply and Demand - International crude oil market spreads are above the 0 axis, indicating that current supply and demand can still match. Current market negative factors are mainly concentrated in expectations, such as OPEC+ likely to continue accelerating production increases after July or a possible slowdown in macro - economic growth due to trade frictions [14]. 2.2 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Forward Curve - Although crude oil is in a contango structure in the longer term, the near - end is in a back structure. Near - end premiums mean that downstream needs to pay an additional premium to obtain spot goods. Even at the recent low point of crude oil prices on the morning of May 12, the Nike - shaped forward structure was maintained, reflecting strong reality and weak expectations [17]. 2.3 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in Institutional Monthly Reports - Three major institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) made different adjustments to demand in their May reports but still had a long - term bearish view of the oil market. Most reports believe that non - OPEC+ supply growth has exceeded global demand growth, and OPEC+ is eager to accelerate production increases [18]. 2.4 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Seasonal Peak Demand Period - The third quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for crude oil. Seasonal demand growth in Q3 can slightly offset the negative impact of supply growth. It is expected that the strong reality in the crude oil market will gradually weaken in the middle of the third quarter, and the forward structure will gradually change to a full contango structure [21]. 2.5 Large - Scale Production Increases Benefit Saudi Arabia in the Long Run - Saudi Arabia's economy is closely related to oil prices. Usually, it stabilizes oil prices, but in extreme cases, it promotes large - scale production increases to reshape the market structure. The 2020 large - scale production increase allowed OPEC+ to enjoy high oil prices for nearly 4 years [24]. 2.6 OPEC+ Current Situation and Possible Actions - OPEC+ is facing external pressure from non - OPEC+ production increases and internal contradictions such as member over - production. If internal problems cannot be resolved, it may turn to a unified external stance. The current macro - instability provides an opportunity for production increases [25]. 2.7 OPEC+ Production Increase Plans and Intentions - OPEC+ continued to accelerate production increases in May, and the production quota in June was equivalent to the original plan for October. OPEC+ may quickly increase production before October and gradually cancel voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day if member compliance does not improve. This strategy may be led by Saudi Arabia to gain a larger market share [28]. 2.8 OPEC+ Policy Timeline in 2025 - OPEC+ maintained the original production increase plan on March 3, causing oil prices to fall below $70/barrel. The compensatory production cuts on March 20 showed its willingness to support oil prices. The acceleration of production increases on April 3 was puzzling, and the decision on May 3 clearly showed the organization's determination to increase production [31]. 2.9 Reference: Oil Prices Required to Hit Main Competitors - The average operating cost of old wells in the US is $41/barrel, and that of new wells is $65/barrel. Oil prices below $65/barrel will seriously affect US crude oil production growth, and below $41/barrel will affect existing production [37]. 2.11 Attention to Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance - Iran is willing to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions to lift economic sanctions, but there are still differences between the US and Iran. There are new variables such as Israel's possible attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The outcome of US - Iran negotiations is expected to be limitedly optimistic [43][45]. 2.12 Complex Middle East Situation - Under the combined influence of long - term US sanctions and the Palestine - Israel conflict, Iran's regional influence has been temporarily weakened. There are complex relationships among countries in the Middle East [47]. 2.13 Persistent Macro - Pressure - US confidence and retail sales data have declined, and manufacturing is in a downward trend. Although CPI has decreased, the Fed refuses to cut interest rates due to potential tariff war impacts. The US is in a tariff suspension period, but tariffs may resume after the suspension, adding pressure on oil prices during OPEC+'s production increase period [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week's view: From a supply - demand perspective, finished steel products would face pressure starting in May, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production. The probability of molten iron output peaking was high. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts would require further compression of steel mill profits. The unilateral driving force for finished steel products might continue downward, but the absolute price was not low, and the risk of chasing short positions was relatively large. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's market analysis: The China - US tariff agreement exceeded market expectations, and the macro - environment improved, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices this week [5]. - This week's view: April's social financing data showed weak credit, and there was no optimistic outlook for steel demand. However, in the short term, May was still the traditional peak demand season. After the China - US agreement, there were expectations of marginal improvement in short - term exports. The supply - demand data for steel was still healthy, with both rebar and hot - rolled coils reducing inventory. Steel mills currently had no pressure to cut production, and prices were expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Finished steel faced pressure in May, molten iron output might peak. Without administrative restrictions, production cuts depended on profit compression. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's analysis: China - US tariff agreement improved the macro - environment and led to a slight rebound in steel prices [5]. - This week's view: Weak April credit data, short - term demand support from the peak season and export expectations. Healthy supply - demand, inventory reduction, and expected price fluctuations [5]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - China - US tariff agreement: The agreement cancelled tariffs imposed since April, and there was a significant short - term increase in Chinese containers exported to the US. Main steel - related downstream products to the US included steel products, railway and track devices, and electromechanical products [7]. - April credit data: Resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.35 billion yuan, indicating a marginal weakening of real - estate sales in April. Enterprise loans increased by 61 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 25 billion yuan [9]. - Demand: Rebar's weekly apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463,900 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [10][11]. - Supply: The daily average molten iron output was 2447,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons. The weekly output of five major steel products was 8.6835 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 211,700 tons. Rebar's weekly output was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons [12][14]. - Inventory: Rebar's total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons. Hot - rolled coil's total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [15]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts - Spot prices: Included historical data charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices from 2021 - 2025, as well as price, basis, and spread data for different dates in May 2025 [17][18]. - Spot profits: Included data charts of converter rebar and hot - rolled coil spot virtual profits and East China rebar flat - electricity profits from 2021 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - Pig iron production: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills on May 16, 2025, was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [29]. - Rebar production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, rebar production was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. The long - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 54.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%, and the short - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 29.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [33][35]. - Hot - rolled coil production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil production was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15% [38]. - Rebar demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, rebar's apparent demand was 260,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,390 tons. The total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons [41]. - Hot - rolled coil demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil's apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [43].