Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report is bearish. Crude oil and refined oil inventories unexpectedly increased across the board, crude oil exports continued to weaken, and terminal demand was weak, reducing the possibility of a reversal in crude oil demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Data - As of May 16, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 443.158 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.328 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 457,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 843,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 816,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 579,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.4 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 5,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 110,000 barrels per day to 2.582 million barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 211,000 barrels per day to 19.6245 million barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 192,500 barrels per day to 8.81325 million barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 122,750 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 68,500 barrels per day to 1.6865 million barrels per day [3]. 3.2 Report Comment - The unexpected increase in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was mainly due to continued low crude oil exports and increased net imports. The four - week smoothed export volume hit a new low, indicating weakening global crude oil demand [4]. - The weekly refinery utilization rate increased for the fifth consecutive week by 0.5% to 90.7%, suggesting that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be coming to an end [4]. - U.S. crude oil production has declined recently, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is $65 per barrel of WTI [4]. - The strong gasoline demand momentum that exceeded the seasonal norm suddenly stopped, leading to an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories. With the approaching Memorial Day, the poor performance of gasoline demand is worrying. Distillate demand hit a 13 - month low, corresponding to the weakening manufacturing PMI [6]. 3.3 Market Impact - The EIA report was bearish. Inventory increases, weakening exports, and weak terminal demand all pointed to a weak oil market. The U.S. EIA report on the night before last contributed to the decline in oil prices, resulting in a negative daily line [8]. - Oil prices opened higher yesterday due to news of Israel's potential attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, but the lack of a realistic basis for such an attack led to a subsequent decline in oil prices [8].

Report Title - 202505 Crude Oil Outlook Report: Superposition of Strong Reality, Weak Expectations, and Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance [1] Report Date - May 21, 2025 [2] Report Author - Xiao Yu, Investment Consulting License No.: Z0016296 [2] 1. Review Summary 1.1 4 - Month Crude Oil Outlook Report Review - **4 - Month Main View**: In a sharply deteriorating macro - atmosphere, OPEC+ not only did not resist but accelerated production increases. The $70 support level for Brent crude oil became an insurmountable resistance level. With continued macro - turmoil, market confidence was increasingly fragile, and a bearish view was maintained [7]. - **Market Review**: Sino - US trade negotiation results drove a limited market rebound, and subsequent changes in US - Iran negotiations were the main factor causing short - term oil price fluctuations [8]. 1.2 5 - Month Main View - **Fundamentals**: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectations, with a long - term bearish outlook. OPEC+ accelerating production increases may become the norm, and the relationship between US and Iranian crude oil is the biggest short - term market disturbance factor [9]. - **Non - fundamentals**: The US has entered a general tariff suspension period, but future pressure remains [9]. - **May Conclusion**: With OPEC+'s signal of accelerating production increases becoming clearer and long - term macro - pressure still existing, oil prices tend to be weak in the medium and long term. However, currently, crude oil is in a seasonally strong reality state, and with the outcome of Iranian crude oil still to be determined, the short - term market may maintain a weak and volatile trend [9]. 2. Crude Oil Market Analysis 2.1 Near - Month Spreads Indicate Tight Spot Supply and Demand - International crude oil market spreads are above the 0 axis, indicating that current supply and demand can still match. Current market negative factors are mainly concentrated in expectations, such as OPEC+ likely to continue accelerating production increases after July or a possible slowdown in macro - economic growth due to trade frictions [14]. 2.2 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Forward Curve - Although crude oil is in a contango structure in the longer term, the near - end is in a back structure. Near - end premiums mean that downstream needs to pay an additional premium to obtain spot goods. Even at the recent low point of crude oil prices on the morning of May 12, the Nike - shaped forward structure was maintained, reflecting strong reality and weak expectations [17]. 2.3 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in Institutional Monthly Reports - Three major institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) made different adjustments to demand in their May reports but still had a long - term bearish view of the oil market. Most reports believe that non - OPEC+ supply growth has exceeded global demand growth, and OPEC+ is eager to accelerate production increases [18]. 2.4 Manifestation of Strong Reality and Weak Expectations in the Seasonal Peak Demand Period - The third quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for crude oil. Seasonal demand growth in Q3 can slightly offset the negative impact of supply growth. It is expected that the strong reality in the crude oil market will gradually weaken in the middle of the third quarter, and the forward structure will gradually change to a full contango structure [21]. 2.5 Large - Scale Production Increases Benefit Saudi Arabia in the Long Run - Saudi Arabia's economy is closely related to oil prices. Usually, it stabilizes oil prices, but in extreme cases, it promotes large - scale production increases to reshape the market structure. The 2020 large - scale production increase allowed OPEC+ to enjoy high oil prices for nearly 4 years [24]. 2.6 OPEC+ Current Situation and Possible Actions - OPEC+ is facing external pressure from non - OPEC+ production increases and internal contradictions such as member over - production. If internal problems cannot be resolved, it may turn to a unified external stance. The current macro - instability provides an opportunity for production increases [25]. 2.7 OPEC+ Production Increase Plans and Intentions - OPEC+ continued to accelerate production increases in May, and the production quota in June was equivalent to the original plan for October. OPEC+ may quickly increase production before October and gradually cancel voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day if member compliance does not improve. This strategy may be led by Saudi Arabia to gain a larger market share [28]. 2.8 OPEC+ Policy Timeline in 2025 - OPEC+ maintained the original production increase plan on March 3, causing oil prices to fall below $70/barrel. The compensatory production cuts on March 20 showed its willingness to support oil prices. The acceleration of production increases on April 3 was puzzling, and the decision on May 3 clearly showed the organization's determination to increase production [31]. 2.9 Reference: Oil Prices Required to Hit Main Competitors - The average operating cost of old wells in the US is $41/barrel, and that of new wells is $65/barrel. Oil prices below $65/barrel will seriously affect US crude oil production growth, and below $41/barrel will affect existing production [37]. 2.11 Attention to Iranian Crude Oil Disturbance - Iran is willing to sign a nuclear agreement under certain conditions to lift economic sanctions, but there are still differences between the US and Iran. There are new variables such as Israel's possible attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. The outcome of US - Iran negotiations is expected to be limitedly optimistic [43][45]. 2.12 Complex Middle East Situation - Under the combined influence of long - term US sanctions and the Palestine - Israel conflict, Iran's regional influence has been temporarily weakened. There are complex relationships among countries in the Middle East [47]. 2.13 Persistent Macro - Pressure - US confidence and retail sales data have declined, and manufacturing is in a downward trend. Although CPI has decreased, the Fed refuses to cut interest rates due to potential tariff war impacts. The US is in a tariff suspension period, but tariffs may resume after the suspension, adding pressure on oil prices during OPEC+'s production increase period [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week's view: From a supply - demand perspective, finished steel products would face pressure starting in May, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production. The probability of molten iron output peaking was high. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts would require further compression of steel mill profits. The unilateral driving force for finished steel products might continue downward, but the absolute price was not low, and the risk of chasing short positions was relatively large. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's market analysis: The China - US tariff agreement exceeded market expectations, and the macro - environment improved, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices this week [5]. - This week's view: April's social financing data showed weak credit, and there was no optimistic outlook for steel demand. However, in the short term, May was still the traditional peak demand season. After the China - US agreement, there were expectations of marginal improvement in short - term exports. The supply - demand data for steel was still healthy, with both rebar and hot - rolled coils reducing inventory. Steel mills currently had no pressure to cut production, and prices were expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Finished steel faced pressure in May, molten iron output might peak. Without administrative restrictions, production cuts depended on profit compression. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's analysis: China - US tariff agreement improved the macro - environment and led to a slight rebound in steel prices [5]. - This week's view: Weak April credit data, short - term demand support from the peak season and export expectations. Healthy supply - demand, inventory reduction, and expected price fluctuations [5]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - China - US tariff agreement: The agreement cancelled tariffs imposed since April, and there was a significant short - term increase in Chinese containers exported to the US. Main steel - related downstream products to the US included steel products, railway and track devices, and electromechanical products [7]. - April credit data: Resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.35 billion yuan, indicating a marginal weakening of real - estate sales in April. Enterprise loans increased by 61 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 25 billion yuan [9]. - Demand: Rebar's weekly apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463,900 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [10][11]. - Supply: The daily average molten iron output was 2447,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons. The weekly output of five major steel products was 8.6835 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 211,700 tons. Rebar's weekly output was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons [12][14]. - Inventory: Rebar's total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons. Hot - rolled coil's total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [15]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts - Spot prices: Included historical data charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices from 2021 - 2025, as well as price, basis, and spread data for different dates in May 2025 [17][18]. - Spot profits: Included data charts of converter rebar and hot - rolled coil spot virtual profits and East China rebar flat - electricity profits from 2021 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - Pig iron production: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills on May 16, 2025, was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [29]. - Rebar production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, rebar production was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. The long - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 54.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%, and the short - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 29.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [33][35]. - Hot - rolled coil production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil production was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15% [38]. - Rebar demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, rebar's apparent demand was 260,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,390 tons. The total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons [41]. - Hot - rolled coil demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil's apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [43].

主要能源机构5月平衡表 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年5月15日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 目录 CONTENTS 01 EIA 02 OPEC 注：括号内数字为上月月报数据，供参考对比 EIA现在预计2025年布伦特原油价格平均66美元/桶（68），2026年进一步跌至59美元/桶（61） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 21-1 21-7 22-1 22-7 23-1 23-7 24-1 24-7 25-1 25-7 26-1 26-7 四年区间 WTI现货价 预估值 Brent价格预估变化 WTI现货价预测 资料来源：EIA 01 EIA 1.1 EIA平衡表 供应 消费 平衡 平衡变化 2025Q1 103.19 103.22 -0.03 +0.17 2025Q2 103.81 103.33 +0.48 -0.07 2025Q3 104.42 104.01 +0.41 -0.26 2025Q4 105.07 104.32 +0.75 -0.02 2025 104.12 103.72 +0.41 -0.05 2026 105.4 ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: EIA Weekly Data Report - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 - **Report Author**: Xiao Huo (Z0016296) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Report's Core View - The EIA report for this week is relatively bearish, with the four - week smoothed weekly export data at a 4 - month low and 6 - month second - lowest, indicating a gradual weakening of global crude oil demand. Although falling oil prices have boosted US domestic gasoline demand before the driving peak season, overall demand remains mediocre, and the total inventory of the crude oil chain has increased more than the crude oil inventory, meaning refined products are still accumulating inventory [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data Overview - As of May 9, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 441.83 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3.454 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.528 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 0.56 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 0.13 million barrels [2] 2. Data Changes from May 2 to May 9 - US commercial crude oil inventory increased from 438.376 million barrels to 441.83 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory decreased from 24.961 million barrels to 23.892 million barrels; US strategic reserve inventory increased from 399.122 million barrels to 398.62 million barrels; US gasoline inventory decreased from 225.728 million barrels to 224.706 million barrels; US distillate inventory decreased from 106.708 million barrels to 103.553 million barrels; US crude oil chain total inventory increased from 1.612398 billion barrels to 1.617795 billion barrels; US crude oil production increased from 13.367 million barrels per day to 13.387 million barrels per day; US crude oil net imports increased from 2.05 million barrels per day to 2.472 million barrels per day; US crude oil processing volume increased from 16.071 million barrels per day to 16.401 million barrels per day; US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 19.756 million barrels per day to 19.8355 million barrels per day; US gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 8.92275 million barrels per day to 9.00575 million barrels per day; US distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 3.708 million barrels per day to 3.68775 million barrels per day; US jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased from 1.85725 million barrels per day to 1.755 million barrels per day [3] 3. Analysis of Crude Oil Inventory Increase - The unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to the decline in export volume. The four - week smoothed export volume dropped to the lowest level since early January, suggesting a weakening of overseas demand. The weekly refinery utilization rate has increased for the fourth consecutive week, rising by 1.2% to 90.2%, breaking through the 90% mark, indicating that this year's slightly longer maintenance season may be gradually ending. US crude oil production has recently declined, mainly affected by falling oil prices. The Dallas Fed's energy survey report for the first quarter of this year shows that the average new well operating cost of US shale oil companies is WTI $65 per barrel [4] 4. Analysis of Product Oil Situation - In terms of refined oil, the apparent demand for gasoline has been continuously strengthening, perhaps boosted by the recent falling prices, resulting in an unexpected decline in gasoline inventory. Diesel inventory has also decreased significantly [6] 5. Impact on Oil Prices - After the release of this week's data, oil prices fluctuated downward. This morning, Iran's inner circle made its first concession on nuclear weapons, causing oil prices to fall further [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, finished steel products may face pressure, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production, with a high probability of molten iron production reaching its peak. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts require further compression of steel mill profits to ease supply pressure. The unilateral drive of finished steel products may continue downward, but the absolute prices are not low, so the risk of chasing short positions is relatively high. It is recommended to focus on short - profit positions [2][62] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - In April, although there were many expectations of steel mill production restrictions, no definite documents were issued. Steel mills maintained good profits, with the profitability rate of steel enterprises around 60%, higher than in 2024. In the traditional peak demand season of April, steel products were destocked, and steel mills had little inventory pressure, so they had little willingness to cut production actively. In the first quarter, the crude steel output increased by 0.6% year - on - year. In April, the output of the five major steel products increased by 2.04% month - on - month and 1.30% year - on - year, and the daily average molten iron output was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. It is expected that the crude steel output in April will increase by about 4% year - on - year. In May, due to better profits than in 2024 and seasonal factors, supply is expected to increase further [3][9] Demand - In April, the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to improve, with an average of 933310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%, and the year - on - year decline rate was narrowing. The decrease was mainly due to the building materials sector. The average apparent demand for rebar in April was 265570 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.01%. The demand for plates was good. In the first week of May, the data decreased significantly month - on - month, but it is expected to be related to holidays and pre - holiday stockpiling, and the demand was relatively stable on a two - week average. The manufacturing industry performed well in the first quarter, with manufacturing investment from January to March increasing by 9.1% year - on - year. Benefiting from policies, the steel demand in the automotive, home appliance, and machinery manufacturing industries increased. In April, the high - frequency data showed that the demand for automobiles and home appliances was still strong, and the growth rate accelerated. However, the manufacturing PMI in April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the new export order index was 44.7%, down 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. The real estate sector still dragged down steel demand, but some data improved. The infrastructure demand was better than in 2024, and the direct export in the first half of the year is expected to maintain growth [10][13][24] Inventory - In April, the destocking speed of rebar accelerated, with a weekly destocking of about 50000 tons at the end of the month, basically the same as in 2024, and the inventory at the end of the month was only 653630 tons. In May, rebar faces the pressure of slower destocking, and enterprises are actively destocking. Hot - rolled coils have strong supply and demand and have been destocking since March, with inventory significantly lower than in 2024. However, the supply pressure of cold - rolled coils is high, and there was basically no destocking in April, and the price difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils narrowed. Plates still face inventory pressure [41] Raw Materials - In addition to export factors, the weakness of raw materials is an important factor in the decline of steel prices, mainly coking coal. High supply and high upstream inventory are the main reasons for the price decline. Currently, the 09 contract has fallen below 900, and there are expectations of a decline in domestic and some imported coal supplies. The core factor for price fluctuations is demand. Coke mainly follows coking coal. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is low, and the total inventory is higher than in 2024. After the first price increase, whether another increase can be implemented is driven by the price of finished steel products. In the first quarter, the global iron ore shipment decreased by about 8 million tons year - on - year, and there was no year - on - year increase in April. Considering the high molten iron production, the pressure of iron ore inventory accumulation in the second quarter is not large, and the 09 contract is deeply discounted against the spot, which also supports the futures price. Overall, raw material supply is not the main problem, and the price decline in April was mainly due to poor steel demand expectations, and the core driver in May is still expected to be demand [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA report this week is relatively neutral. Although gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, the increase was small and crude oil inventories declined more than expected. The refinery operating rate is gradually recovering, with good basic data. However, other demand in the industrial sector performed poorly, and inventories showed a seasonal increase, dragging down the positive impact of the report [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data - As of May 2nd, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 438.376 million barrels, a week-on-week decrease of 2.032 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 800,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 740,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 580,000 barrels [2]. - Gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Distillate inventories decreased by 1.107 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.3 million barrels [2]. - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 98,000 barrels per day to 13.367 million barrels per day, and net imports increased by 673,000 barrels per day to 2.05 million barrels per day [3]. - The refinery processing volume decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 16.071 million barrels per day, and the terminal apparent demand for crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 97,750 barrels per day to 19.756 million barrels per day [3]. Report Analysis - The refinery maintenance season this year, which is slightly longer than usual, may be gradually coming to an end as the weekly refinery operating rate has increased for the third consecutive week, rising 0.4% to 89.0% [4]. - The recent decline in U.S. crude oil production is mainly affected by falling oil prices. The average new - well operating cost of U.S. shale oil companies is WTK $5 per barrel [4]. - The unexpected increase in gasoline inventories may be due to the recent continuous decline in prices, which has boosted demand. Other refined product inventories, mainly industrial products, have continued to increase seasonally, consistent with their weak demand [6]. - The decline in oil prices last night was due to the smooth signal from the U.S. - Iran negotiations, which reduced the risk of Iranian crude oil supply disruption, and the Fed's statement of increased two - way risks, which lowered short - term risk appetite [8].

202504原油展望报告 山雨欲来风满楼 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月30日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 回顾总结 02 原油市场分析 目录 CONTENTS 50 60 70 80 90 100 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/1 25/2 25/3 25/4 WTI 布伦特 阿曼 SC 3月主要观点：当前原油实物市场依然偏紧，且OPEC+的补偿性减产和美国制裁将收紧供应端输出。预 计油价将进入企稳反弹阶段，更长期的尺度我们维持供应过剩观点。 行情回顾：由于特朗普美国时间4月2日推出的关税政策远超预期，市场风险偏好急剧下降，此后 OPEC+决定5月加速增产，使得宏微观边际共振向下。 1.2 4月原油展望报告总结 4月主要观点： 01 回顾总结 1.1 2月原油展望报告回顾 基本面： 近月价差相对持坚，但市场更关注疲软预期，而非现实面 美国与伊朗原油之间的牵扯是短期市场最大扰动因素，但预计不会改变总体向下趋势 OPEC+内部矛盾加深，加速增产恐成 ...

原油周报 OPEC+矛盾加剧，全球经济依然承压 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 本周主要观点： 上周周报观点：本周关税战消息趋于平静，油价在利多消息推动下超跌反弹，不过当前市场环境仍然 差于关税战起点，我们预计在进一步利多消息或者关税战戏剧性反转之前油价反弹空间有限。若 OPEC+持续当前的加速增产倾向，预计原油市场将持续面临下行压力。 本周走势分析：本周油价原地震荡，周末美伊谈判传积极信号，周中传OPEC+6月可能继续加速增产令 油价承压，而美国对伊朗制裁、中美贸易谈判流言以及美国可能降低对中国关税支撑油价。 • 现货市场格局：强现实弱预期，价格反应了预期，等待现实向预期靠拢。（2.1） • OPEC+或再加速增产：OPEC+内部矛盾加大，对内转对外风险增加（2.3-2.4） • 宏观面：IMF下调全球经济预测，美联储（2.5-2.6） • 美伊会谈：美国 ...

节前震荡为主 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 周度观点 ➢ 上周主要观点：3月的经济数据超市场预期，实际GDP同比增长5.4%，一线城市地产价格企稳回升，地产销售基本持平，新开工降幅收窄至- 18.7%，狭义基建投资增速同比回升至5.8%。本期钢联的数据也不错，螺纹表需继续回升，热卷环比也有所增加。价格延续弱势，主要还是对 需求的持续性和接下来出口端的担忧，再加上原材料尤其焦煤不断创新低，成本给予的支撑也不够。短期价格再靠近上周低点，市场情绪不佳， 但也没用新的利空，现货也相对抗跌，基差走强，预计震荡为主。 ➢ 本周走势分析：本周盘面止跌反弹，虽然关税对未来需求的影响还会继续，且面临不确定性，但很难再超预期，本周也释放了一些缓和的信号。 ➢ 本周主要观点：基本面上看，钢联数据低于市场预期，尤其螺纹需求，但钢谷的数据不错且螺纹低库存且不断去库下，部分地区已经出现缺规 格现象，热卷的需求还是有一定韧 ...