沙特5月官价以及近期油价一览 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月7日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 1.1 沙特OSP | 沙特OSP | | 5月 | | 4月 | | 变化值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 至亚洲(对阿曼/迪拜) | | | | | | | | 超轻 | 1 . | 75 | 4 | 05 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 特轻 | 1 . | 00 | 3 | 30 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 轻质 | 1 . | 20 | 3 | 50 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 中质 | 0 . | 65 | 2 | 95 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 重质 | 0 - . | 50 | 1 | 80 . | 2 - | 30 . | | 至地中海(对布伦特加权) | | | | | | | | 特轻 | 4 . | 05 | 4 | 55 . | 0 - | 50 . | | 轻质 | 2 . | 35 | 2 | 85 . | - 0 | 50 . ...

2025-04-03 10:14:30 EIA周度数据报告 EIA周度报告点评 主要数据一览: 截止3月28日，美国商业原油总库存为43979.2万桶，环比增加616.5万桶，与预期的下降210万桶大相径庭，交割地库欣库存增加237.3万桶。战略 储备库存增加28.5万桶。 成品油方面，汽油库存减少155.1万桶，不及预期的减少170万桶，馏分油库存增加26.4万桶，与预期的减少100万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 3月21日 | 3月28日 | 变化 | 沂三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 433627 | 439792 | 6165 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22705 | 25078 | 2373 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 396149 | 396434 | 285 | | | 美国汽油库存 | 239128 | 237577 | -1551 | | | 美国馆分油库存 | 114362 | 114626 | 264 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1600254 | 1605891 | 5637 | | | ...

01 周度观点 02 周度重点 目录 03 价格、价差、裂解 CONTENTS 04 供需库存平衡表 原油周报 美国超预期加征关税令市场重新定价 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年4月3日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 05 EIA周度报告及其他 01 周度观点 1.1 周度观点 上周周报观点：与美国关税政策对需求破坏和特朗普衰退交易相比，供应端的扰动影响更加贴近近端， 且更容易实际上起效。考虑到需求端也将面临季节性改善，预计油价短期维持企稳反弹态势。 本周走势分析：在周四美国超预期加税导致油价下跌之前，油价保持震荡偏强势头，总体由于供应端 收紧。 本周主要观点： • 基本面：近月月差显示供需有所收紧，美国裂解持续好转。（2.1-2.2） • 美国关税：美国超预期关税打压经济预期（2.5） • OPEC+：补偿性减产使得二季度增产变为减产（2.6） • 美国制裁：美国威胁对俄罗斯和伊朗石油采取二级关税，进一步加剧供应端扰动（2.7） • 周度观点：由于美国推出的一揽子制裁超过市场预期，以及多国表示将发动反制，市场需要在宏 观角度进行重新定价。尽管现货流动仍然紧平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Last Week's Main Viewpoint**: Asphalt has been weak recently, affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil and a slowdown in its own fundamentals. Some southern refineries offered preferential policies to stimulate shipments, and the overall market sentiment was average. It was expected to remain weakly stable in the short term, and caution was advised regarding further declines in the cost - end [8]. - **This Week's Trend Analysis**: This week, the tightening of crude oil supply at the cost - end stimulated its price to rise, and asphalt followed the upward trend of crude oil [8]. - **This Week's Industry Data**: This week, the refinery operating rate remained at a low level, while the shipment volume continued to increase. The refinery inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, showing an overall marginal improvement [8]. - **This Week's Main Viewpoint**: Affected by the continuous low refinery operating rate and the steady increase in shipment volume, the asphalt refinery inventory decreased, and the fundamentals improved slightly. However, the actual rigid demand remained weak. Therefore, asphalt only fluctuated with the crude oil price and had no independent additional trend. It is expected to follow the stable rebound trend of crude oil in the short term, and caution is advised regarding cost - end fluctuations [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Analyzed the reasons for the weak performance of asphalt last week, including the decline in crude oil prices and the slowdown of its own fundamentals. This week, due to the tightening of crude oil supply, asphalt followed the upward trend of crude oil. The refinery operating rate was low, shipments increased, refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but rigid demand was still weak [8]. 3.2 Data Overview - **2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis**: Provided historical data on asphalt futures price trends, monthly spreads (such as BU2506 - BU2509), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [10][11]. - **2.2 Asphalt Supply**: Presented data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [13][14]. - **2.3 Asphalt Demand**: Showed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by asphalt apparent consumption from 2020 - 2025 [16][17]. - **2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports**: Displayed data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [19][20]. - **2.5 Asphalt Inventory**: Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume from 2021 - 2025 [22][23]. - **2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Provided data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong from 2020 - 2025 [25][26]. - **2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Showed data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China from 2020 - 2025 [28][29]. - **2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Presented data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. - **2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule**: Listed the production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacities, maintenance start times, and undetermined end times of refineries. The total production capacity under maintenance was 20.41 million tons/year, and the maintenance loss was 818,500 tons [34].

需求支撑矿价，震荡偏强运行 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年3月28日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 周度观点 ➢ 上周主要观点：日均铁水产量超预期回升到236万吨，但是需求的高频数据表现一般，市场总体还是担忧高供给能够持续的时间，加上前期铁 矿发运恢复，在钢材没有很强的需求表现下，矿缺乏上涨的驱动。但是当下铁水产量还是很高的，累库压力不大，预计铁矿震荡为主。 ➢ 本周走势分析：本周铁矿价格止跌反弹，本身铁矿需求尚可，日均铁水产量达到237万吨，钢厂在复产周期市场前期一直交易铁水见顶，但钢 厂在有利润背景下并无减产的迹象。 ➢ 本周主要观点：当下铁水背景下，铁矿供需并不宽松，且从五大材产量上并没有看到太明显的产量压力，预计废钢比低位，同时五大材外品种 分流铁水。短期钢材旺季需求还在回升，钢厂没有减产压力。供给端铁矿比较平稳，接下来到港压力也不大。预计下周铁矿价格震荡偏强运行。 • 1.发运环比有所回升； • 2.需求维持高位； • 3. ...

202503原油展望报告 短期供应有所收紧 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年3月28日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 2月主要观点：我们维持中长期偏空观点，短期的反弹主要来源于以上偏空因素的阶段性变化，尤其需 要关注的是OPEC+关于4月增产的最终决定。 行情回顾：由于OPEC+决定按原计划4月增产，以及美国的"特朗普衰退交易"令宏观情绪转弱，油价 在月度早期延续下跌走势并创下多年新低。不过随着OPEC+发布补偿性减产以及美国对伊朗、委内瑞 拉施加制裁，油价企稳反弹。 1.2 3月原油展望报告总结 3月主要观点： 01 回顾总结 02 原油市场分析 目录 CONTENTS 01 回顾总结 1.1 2月原油展望报告回顾 60 70 80 90 100 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/10 24/11 24/12 25/1 25/2 25/3 WTI 布伦特 阿曼 SC 基本面： OPEC+补偿性减产实际上令4月的增产变为减产 美国制裁进一步打压供应预期 二季度原油需求有望季节性增加 非基本面： 美联 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The EIA report for the week is relatively bearish. Although the surface data that the market focuses on looks good, the actual situation is not as optimistic as it seems. There are signs of weakness on the demand side, mainly in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, and the sustainability of the weak jet fuel data also deserves attention. The extent to which the weak US demand can interfere with the oil price rebound momentum remains to be seen [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of March 21, US commercial crude oil inventories were 433.627 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.341 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1 million barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 755,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 286,000 barrels [2][3]. - In terms of refined oil products, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.446 million barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 421,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels [2]. - US total crude oil chain inventories increased by 3.478 million barrels. US crude oil production was stable at 13.574 million barrels per day, net imports increased by 845,000 barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 401,250 barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 47,250 barrels per day, distillate apparent demand decreased by 115,250 barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 29,250 barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, US crude oil and major refined oil inventories decreased, with crude oil inventory decline exceeding expectations. The refinery utilization rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 87%, still in a low range, indicating ongoing maintenance [4]. - The overall US inventory increased, mainly in jet fuel and other petrochemical - based inventories. There were few positive factors other than the decline in major inventory indicators [4]. - In the refined oil market, distillate demand continued to decline, consistent with the recent weak manufacturing data. Other inventories mainly composed of petrochemicals increased significantly, indicating weak industrial demand. Jet fuel single - week demand dropped sharply to a one - year low, but the four - week smoothed data was acceptable, likely due to short - term sales fluctuations at refineries [6]. Market Reaction - This week's EIA report is relatively bearish. Although the surface data that the market focuses on is good, such as the larger - than - expected decline in crude oil inventories and the decline in major refined oil inventories, which briefly pushed up oil prices after the report was released, the weak demand - side data led to a subsequent price correction [8]. - The weak demand in the US, especially in the industrial and manufacturing sectors, and the sustainability of weak jet fuel data are concerning. The impact of weak US demand on the oil price rebound momentum under the background of market speculation on supply - side variables remains to be observed [8].