Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the EIA weekly data of the US oil market as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Main Data Highlights - US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.662 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.029 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 453,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 235,000 barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 400,000 barrels. Distillate inventory decreased by 565,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 800,000 barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. Net imports decreased by 794,000 barrels per day to 2.644 million barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 213,000 barrels per day to 17.124 million barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 185,250 barrels per day to 20.61575 million barrels per day. Gasoline apparent demand decreased by 29,750 barrels per day to 8.912 million barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 55,000 barrels per day to 1.77675 million barrels per day. Distillate apparent demand increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 3.52275 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventory declined more than expected. Refinery operating rate reached a new high of 96.9% this year, up 1.5%, driving an increase in crude oil processing volume. However, the processing volume was not a new high due to the decrease in refinery capacity from 18.347 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year to 18.089 million barrels per day. Export growth also contributed to the inventory decline [4] - Gasoline demand remained persistently low, with the four - week smoothed data below 9 million barrels per day for four consecutive weeks during the peak season. Compared with previous years, this year's gasoline demand was only better than that in 2020 and 2022, indicating that Americans are more inclined to short - distance travel and cut travel budgets. Distillate demand was stable, and the slight inventory decline was mainly due to increased exports [6] - This week's EIA report seemed bullish as crude oil and major refined product inventories declined. However, the gasoline apparent demand below 9 million barrels per day during the peak season weakened the positive impact. Overall, the US gasoline consumption market this year was disappointing compared with previous years at similar price levels. After the data release, oil prices were initially stable and then declined due to news of potential US - Russia - third - country leader talks [8]

主要数据一览: 截止8月1日，美国商业原油总库存为42366.2万桶，环比下降302.9万桶，超过预期的减少60万桶，交割地库欣库存增加45.3万桶。战略储备库存 增加23.5万桶。 EIA周度数据报告 2025-08-07 09:52:10 摘要:汽油需求在旺季中持续性低迷 EIA周良 脂点评 成品油方面，汽油库存减少132.3万桶，超过预期的减少40万桶，馏分油库存减少56.5万桶，与预期的增加80万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 7月25日 | 8月1日 | 变化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 426691 | 423662 | -3029 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22553 | 23006 | 453 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402741 | 402976 | ટર્ક | | | 美国汽油库存 | 228405 | 227082 | -1323 - | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 113536 | 112971 | -262 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1660512 | 1662801 | ...

主要数据一览: 截止8月1日，美国商业原油总库存为42366.2万桶，环比下降302.9万桶，超过预期的减少60万桶，交割地库欣库存增加45.3万桶。战略储备库存 增加23.5万桶。 EIA周度数据报告 2025-08-07 09:52:10 摘要:汽油需求在旺季中持续性低迷 EIA周良 脂点评 成品油方面，汽油库存减少132.3万桶，超过预期的减少40万桶，馏分油库存减少56.5万桶，与预期的增加80万桶相反。 | 单位:千桶、千桶/日 | 7月25日 | 8月1日 | 变化 | 近三月趋势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存 | 426691 | 423662 | -3029 | | | 库欣原油库存 | 22553 | 23006 | 453 | | | 美国战略储备库存 | 402741 | 402976 | ટર્ક | | | 美国汽油库存 | 228405 | 227082 | -1323 - | | | 美国馏分油库存 | 113536 | 112971 | -262 | | | 美国原油链总库存 | 1660512 | 1662801 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In August, attention should be paid to the trend of diesel cracking. In the case of poor gasoline consumption, diesel cracking has led the refining economy of refineries. If diesel cracking continues to weaken, it will directly damage the refinery operating rate, making it difficult for the crude oil consumption side to resist the increasing supply pressure, thus putting pressure on oil prices in August. However, there are several major disturbing factors in the market in August, such as Russian oil sanctions and trade negotiations that bundle the purchase of Russian oil, which may affect Russian oil supply and reignite diesel cracking. In addition, whether OPEC+ will further withdraw from production cuts in the fourth quarter is also worthy of attention [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly View - **Last month's view**: The northern hemisphere consumption peak season can support the market to some extent, resist the supply increase pressure, and make short - term oil prices fluctuate slightly stronger. But the peak of the consumption season is about to end, and then the supply pressure will gradually increase, with limited upside space. Key events this month, such as the end of the tariff suspension period and the follow - up negotiation of the Iranian nuclear issue, need attention [8] - **This month's trend analysis**: Oil prices fluctuated narrowly in the first half of July. With the completion of tariff negotiations between the US, Japan, and Europe, and Trump's announcement of a 10 - day ultimatum on sanctions against Russia, oil prices showed a stronger trend in the last week of July [8] - **This month's main points**: Crude oil fundamentals show that domestic oil storage makes the eastern market's monthly spread stronger, and there are signs of weakening diesel cracking; US travel consumption shows a shift from gasoline demand to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade; Market disturbance factors include Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ production increases, and tariff negotiations; The labor market is an important reference for the Fed to cut interest rates in the context of persistent inflation [8] 3.2 Monthly Key Points - **East - West market near - month spread differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) generally declined this month, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, but rebounded in the last week. Eastern market spreads are still strong, which is related to China's imports [12] - **China's inventory increase and absorption**: China's cumulative change in implied crude oil inventory from March to June this year (+645) is the highest in recent years. The increase in inventory is due to falling oil prices and intentional storage. New policies to improve energy security have led to additional demand, making the eastern crude oil near - month spread stronger than the western one [15] - **Diesel cracking shows signs of weakening**: Global cracking generally maintained a volatile or strong trend this month, but showed signs of weakening before the end of the month, mainly contributed by diesel. Diesel cracking has been strong and driven the previous cracking increase, but recently it has shown signs of weakening. Gasoline cracking has been mediocre this year [17][19] - **Global diesel inventory is generally low**: Diesel inventories in the US and China, the world's major consumers, are at multi - year lows. Northwest European port diesel inventories are relatively neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventories are at a low level after continuous decline [22] - **Gasoline demand shifts to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade**: US gasoline demand during the driving peak season this year was dismal, while jet fuel demand reached a five - year high. This reflects that US residents are turning to more short - distance self - driving travel and reducing travel budgets, especially in low - income groups [25] - **Market disturbance factors - Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ meetings**: Trump's shortening of the ultimatum on Russia from 50 days to 10 days has made this short - term disturbance factor affect oil prices. The OPEC+ JMMC meeting ended in July without proposing production policy suggestions. The market expects OPEC+ to further increase production in the fourth quarter [26] - **Tariff situation**: The US has reached a new 15% tariff agreement with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and extended the tariff suspension with China and Mexico for 90 days. Trump has signed an executive order to determine the reciprocal tariff rates for multiple countries and regions, which may drag down the global economy [28] - **Inflation and the Fed**: With the end of the downward trend of crude oil prices since April, the downward trend of inflation driven by falling energy prices is expected to slow down. The labor market is the most important consideration for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates once this year [30] - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA's forecast, the hurricane activity this year has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Hurricanes can affect offshore drilling platforms and coastal refineries [32] 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC basket price, WTI, Brent, etc. [35] - **Brent and WTI crude oil positions**: Charts present the net long positions of Brent and WTI futures and options, as well as the relationship between price and the proportion of net long positions of different types of traders [37][40] - **Crude oil futures structure, monthly spread, cross - market spreads**: Data shows the structure, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil futures [43][46][49] - **Spot spreads**: Include cross - market, American, Asian spot spreads, and Saudi OSP. Saudi OSP for different grades of oil to different regions has changed in August compared to July [52][55][58][59] - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the futures and spot prices and cracking spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions [64][66][69][72] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global and regional crude oil supply**: Data on global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries, are presented. The global rig count and US crude oil rig - related data are also included [85][88][91][94][100] - **Global and regional crude oil demand**: Data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries in OECD and non - OECD regions, are provided [109][112][115] - **Crude oil inventory**: Inventory data of the US, OECD, and other regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve, are given. The EIA balance sheet shows that the supply - demand balance is positive from 2025Q1 to 2025Q4 [118][139] 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: Include crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [154] - **Supply**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are provided [157][160] - **Refining demand**: Information on refinery crude oil input, operating rate, and refining capacity is presented [163] - **Four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand**: Data on total demand, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel demand are shown [166]

沥青周报 小幅走高 01 周度观点 02 数据概览 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 姓名：肖彧 投资咨询证号：Z0016296 2025年8月1日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 1.1 周度观点 上周主要观点：反内卷对成本端原油影响不大，沥青自身依然刚需为主，受资金制约难有超预期表现。 周度炼厂开工下降，不过下周预计会有略微反弹，现阶段虽然厂库位置较低，但社库持续没有去化或制 约整体上方空间。预计沥青走势整体震荡，跟随成本端为主。 本周走势分析：本周沥青小幅走高，总体跟随成本端原油走势，但相对较弱。 本周行业数据：本周炼厂供需双增，不过需求增量不及开工率增量。厂库去化后处于同期低位，不过社 库去化速度较慢，进入旺季后，社库去化速度将制约沥青价格上行空间。 本周主要观点：沥青自身依然刚需为主，受资金制约难有超预期表现。现阶段虽然厂库位置较低，但社 库持续没有去化或制约整体上方空间。预计沥青走势整体震荡，偏弱跟随成本端为主。 风险提示：成本端波动风险，沥青库存变化 02 数据概览 2.1 沥青期货走势、月差、基差 沥青主力价格 BU9月-BU12月 华东基差 山东基差 -500 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report is slightly bearish on the oil market [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The large increase in US commercial crude oil inventories was mainly due to import - export disturbances, with high domestic refinery operating rates but weak overseas demand [4][8] - Gasoline demand this year has been disappointing, reflecting concerning macro - economic implications despite low retail prices [6][8] - The continuous increase in distillate inventories is beneficial for alleviating the strong distillate cracking situation but is not good news for oil prices [6][8] - Recent oil prices have remained strong due to factors such as Trump's ultimatum to Russia, smooth trade negotiations, and better - than - expected Q2 economic data, and the EIA report cannot reverse the positive market sentiment [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Data Crude Oil Inventory - As of July 25, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426,691 thousand barrels, a sharp increase of 7,698 thousand barrels from the previous week, contrary to the expected decrease of 1,100 thousand barrels; Cushing inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels; strategic reserve inventory increased by 238 thousand barrels [2][3] Product Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2,724 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 600 thousand barrels; distillate inventory increased by 3,635 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 300 thousand barrels [2][3] Production and Consumption - US crude oil production increased by 41 thousand barrels per day to 13,314 thousand barrels per day; net imports increased by 1,317 thousand barrels per day to 3,438 thousand barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 25 thousand barrels per day to 16,911 thousand barrels per day [3] - US crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 225 thousand barrels per day to 20,801 thousand barrels per day; gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 128 thousand barrels per day to 8,941.75 thousand barrels per day; distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 109.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,509.75 thousand barrels per day; jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased by 89.75 thousand barrels per day to 1,831.75 thousand barrels per day [3] Refinery and Demand - The refinery operating rate decreased 0.1% to 95.4% [4] - Total terminal demand for refined oil increased slightly by 1%, but gasoline demand was still lower than last year and the 5 - year average affected by the COVID - 19 period [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - Last week's view was that the Northern Hemisphere's consumption peak season could support the market to some extent, but the supply pressure would gradually increase later, and the upside space was limited. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half of the week due to tariff negotiations and geopolitical factors. The short - term fluctuations are mainly affected by tariff negotiations and geopolitical disturbances, while the long - term view remains bearish due to strong supply and the fading consumption peak season [8]. - The crude oil fundamentals show that the East market's month - spread is strong due to domestic oil storage, and diesel leads the refined oil cracking. The US gasoline demand has slumped during the peak season, indicating poor US consumption ability. The domestic anti - involution has little impact on crude oil, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations and the final tax rates [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Views - Last week's view was that the consumption peak season could support the market, but the supply pressure would increase later. This week, oil prices fluctuated narrowly, with a slightly stronger trend in the second half due to tariff negotiations. The short - term is affected by tariff and geopolitical factors, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Key points include the strong East market month - spread, weak US gasoline demand, little impact of anti - involution on crude oil, and attention to tariff negotiations [8]. 2. Weekly Highlights - **East - West Market Spread Differentiation**: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) are falling, while the East market spreads are strong, related to China's imports [12]. - **China's Inventory Increase**: China's crude oil implied inventory from March to June 2025 reached a new high in recent years. The increase is due to price drops and strategic storage, which boosts the East market's month - spread [15]. - **Diesel Cracking Leading**: Diesel cracking leads the refined oil cracking market, with all regional 211 cracking (higher diesel proportion) stronger than 321 cracking [18]. - **Global Spot Cracking**: Diesel cracking is strong, while gasoline cracking is downward, corresponding to weak US gasoline consumption. The long - term supply reduction of Saudi and Russia supports diesel cracking [20]. - **Global Diesel Inventory**: Diesel inventories in the US and China are at multi - year lows, while the inventory in Northwest Europe is neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventory is declining [23]. - **US Gasoline Demand**: US gasoline demand slumped during the peak driving season, with inventory being neutral. Low demand at current prices deepens the expectation of poor US consumption in the second half of the year [26]. - **Domestic Anti - Involution**: It has little impact on crude oil supply. If it occurs in refineries, it may be bearish for crude oil but bullish for chemical by - products [29]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The US has made progress in some tariff negotiations. Attention should be paid to the results and final tax rates, which may affect the US economy and Fed policies [30]. - **North American Hurricane Forecast**: This year's hurricane activity is expected to be 60% above average, which may disrupt supply. Currently, there is no hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, but there is a potential cyclone [32]. 3. Price, Spread, and Cracking - **Crude Oil Futures and Spot Prices**: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC, WTI, Brent, etc. [35][52] - **Crude Oil Positions**: The positions of WTI and Brent futures and options are presented, including those of management funds, producers, etc. [37][40] - **Crude Oil Futures Structure and Month - Spread**: The futures structure and month - spread of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC are shown [43][46] - **Cross - Market Spreads**: Cross - market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, are presented [49][52] - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi's official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of oil to different regions in August and July are provided, showing price changes [59] - **Refined Product Prices and Cracking**: The prices and cracking spreads of refined products, including gasoline, diesel, etc., in different regions are presented [64][72] 4. Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global Crude Oil Supply**: The supply of global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil is shown, with forecasts [85] - **Non - OPEC and OPEC Supply by Country**: The supply of non - OPEC countries (US, Russia, China, etc.) and OPEC countries (Saudi, Iraq, etc.) is presented [88][94] - **Global Rig Count**: The number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally is shown [100] - **Refinery Shutdowns**: The shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally and in different regions are presented [106][108] - **Global Crude Oil Demand**: The demand of OECD, non - OECD, and global crude oil is shown, with forecasts [110] - **Crude Oil Inventory**: The inventories of the US, OECD, and other regions, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [119] - **EIA Balance Sheet**: The EIA's supply, consumption, and balance data for 2025 and 2026 are provided [140] 5. EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA Weekly Report Main Data**: Data on crude oil production, commercial inventory, refinery utilization rate, etc., are presented [155] - **Supply and Demand Data**: Data on the production of various refined products, refinery demand, terminal demand, and inventory are provided [158][164][167] - **Inventory Data**: Data on crude oil and refined product inventories, including commercial and strategic inventories, are presented [173][176] - **Import and Export**: Not detailed in the remaining content

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week's view: Affected by the capital side and rainfall, asphalt demand was mainly for immediate needs, with little chance of exceeding expectations. Currently, refinery operations are average, some Sinopec refineries have lowered prices, and most actual market transactions are for low - priced supplies. It was expected that asphalt prices would fluctuate overall, and influenced by the cost side, the center might be slightly stronger, but the upside potential was limited [7]. - This week's price movement: This week, asphalt prices fluctuated within a narrow range, generally following the trend of crude oil on the cost side [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. After the reduction of refinery inventories, they were at a low level compared to the same period. The reduction rate of social inventories was slow. After entering the peak season, the reduction rate of social inventories would restrict the upside space of asphalt prices [7]. - This week's view: The anti - involution trend has little impact on the cost - side crude oil. Asphalt demand remains mainly for immediate needs and is restricted by capital, so it is difficult to exceed expectations. Weekly refinery operations decreased, but a slight rebound is expected next week. Although refinery inventories are currently at a low level, the continuous lack of reduction in social inventories may restrict the overall upside space. It is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate overall, mainly following the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints - Last week's prediction was that asphalt would be range - bound with a slightly upward - biased center due to cost, but limited upside. This week, asphalt followed crude oil in a narrow - range fluctuation. Current industry data shows reduced supply and increased demand at refineries, low refinery inventories, and slow - moving social inventories. The current view is that asphalt will continue to fluctuate following the cost side, with upside limited by non - declining social inventories [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - Graphs present asphalt futures trends, including the price of the main contract, spreads between September and December contracts, and basis in East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [10][11]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - Graphs show asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, with data from Steel Union Data [13][14]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - Graphs display asphalt shipment volumes, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent asphalt consumption, using data from Steel Union Data [16][17]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Graphs illustrate asphalt import and export volumes, as well as import windows in East and South China, with data from Steel Union Data [19][20]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Graphs show refinery inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes, with data from Steel Union Data [22][23]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs present the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong, with data from Steel Union Data [25][26]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs show the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China, with data from Steel Union Data [28][29]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Graphs display the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China, with data from Steel Union Data [31][32]. 3.2.9 Refinery Maintenance - A table lists refineries with maintenance, including the production enterprise, maintenance device, capacity, start time, and end time of maintenance. The total annual capacity of these refineries is 2016 tons, and the maintenance loss is 641,500 tons [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data of US commercial crude oil inventory decline is favorable, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at the peak of the year, which makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 418.993 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 455,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels [2]. - In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels, while distillate oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2]. - US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year, with a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day. US crude oil net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day, and crude oil processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3]. - The terminal apparent demand for US crude oil (four - week smoothing) increased by 314,250 barrels per day to 20.576 million barrels per day, while the apparent demand for gasoline (four - week smoothing) decreased by 180,250 barrels per day to 8.81375 million barrels per day, and the apparent demand for distillate oil (four - week smoothing) decreased by 112,750 barrels per day to 3.61925 million barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, the decline of US commercial crude oil exceeded expectations. The continuous decline of weekly crude oil production, the high operating rate of downstream refineries (increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%), and the continuous rebound of weekly crude oil exports all contributed to the inventory decline. However, the increase in refinery operating rate was partly due to the withdrawal of refinery capacity last week, and the increase in US crude oil processing volume was only 87,000 barrels per day [4]. - In terms of refined oil, although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillate oil decreased. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's gasoline demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the level of the 2020 COVID - 19 year, which may break the high operating rate of refineries through cracking conduction [6]. - Although the EIA report's surface data is favorable due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the weak terminal refined oil demand makes the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries doubtful. After the report was released, the oil price had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7].