1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: After a significant increase this week, it was expected that refinery operations would cool down next week. However, increased rainfall in the East China region might drag down regional rigid demand. Currently, asphalt consumption has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventories. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is expected to have limited upside space, mainly following the cost side weakly [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, asphalt prices rose and then fell, showing a relatively weaker performance than crude oil and other heavy oils [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The refinery operating rate slightly declined after a significant increase last week. Refinery shipments significantly increased due to pre - holiday stockpiling, leading to a decrease in factory inventories at a low level. The previously stubborn social inventories slightly decreased this week, showing marginal improvement, but the curve still significantly lags behind the same period in previous years. As the peak season deepens, it will limit the upside space for asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, refinery shipments increased significantly due to pre - holiday stockpiling, but asphalt prices were not significantly boosted. High social inventories still restrict the upside space for asphalt, and high - priced supplies in some areas are starting to face pressure. It is expected that refinery operations will still gradually increase, but demand is restricted by the capital side and is expected to have limited upside space, mainly following the cost side weakly [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's prediction was that refinery operations would cool down, but East China rainfall might affect demand. Currently in the peak consumption season, asphalt's upside depends on demand - driven social inventory reduction, but demand is capital - restricted with limited upside [7]. - This week, asphalt prices rose and then fell, weaker than crude oil and heavy oils. Refinery supply decreased, demand increased, operating rates dipped slightly, shipments rose due to stockpiling, and factory inventories declined. Social inventories improved marginally but lagged behind previous years [7]. - High social inventories still limit asphalt's upside, and some high - priced supplies face pressure. Refinery operations are expected to gradually increase, but demand has limited upside and will follow the cost side weakly [7]. 3.2 Data Overview 3.2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Spreads, and Basis - Presented historical data on asphalt futures spreads (BU9 - BU12), basis in East China and Shandong, and asphalt main contract prices [9][10]. 3.2.2 Asphalt Supply - Included data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate over multiple years [12][13]. 3.2.3 Asphalt Demand - Showed data on asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and apparent consumption over multiple years [15][16]. 3.2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports and exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported完税 prices from South Korea and Singapore and the mainstream prices in East and South China [18][19]. 3.2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Displayed data on factory inventories, social inventories, futures inventories, and monthly futures delivery volumes over multiple years [21][22]. 3.2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in Shandong over multiple years [24][25]. 3.2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in East China over multiple years [27][28]. 3.2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on the operating rate, shipments, factory inventories, and social inventories of asphalt in South China over multiple years [30][31]. 3.2.9 Asphalt Refinery Maintenance - Listed multiple asphalt refineries' maintenance information, including the maintenance device (atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit), production capacity, maintenance start time, and end time (most are undetermined). The total annual production capacity of the refineries under maintenance is 2026 tons, and the maintenance loss is 69.99 million tons [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are under long - term pressure from the narrative of large supply. As the Fed's internal differences increase, market concerns about the future employment market and economy remain, and the atmosphere in the crude oil market is still weak after the interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and all factors that can affect Russian oil supply [8]. - The EIA data this week is bearish from a forward - looking perspective, mainly due to the poor performance of distillates (the main product in autumn and winter demand) and the fact that US refineries are gradually entering the autumn maintenance period [21]. - The three major energy institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) did not significantly adjust the demand side in their September reports, but IEA and EIA have significantly increased the supply forecast for three consecutive months, and EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Crude oil is under long - term pressure from large supply. As supply increases and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, and short - term interference factors are mainly from the Middle East geopolitical situation and potential sanctions against Russia [8]. - This week's price trend: Oil prices rose first and then fell. The rise was mainly due to Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, but the latter half of the week saw a decline due to the bearish EIA weekly report and the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - This week's main views: Fundamentally, the downward trend of the monthly spread has slowed slightly, and cracking is relatively resilient. The US is gradually entering the autumn maintenance period, and distillate demand is poor. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but internal differences increased. Trump said there would be good news soon, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [8]. 3.2 Weekly Key Points - **Global near - month spread**: The near - month spreads of Brent and WTI in the world's major markets slightly rebounded this week, but the long - term trend is still downward, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand [12]. - **Cracking trend**: Global refined oil spot prices are still supported. Relatively speaking, the cracking trend of US spot is slightly weaker, while that of Northwest Europe and Singapore is stronger. Although terminal demand is okay, the supply increase is greater, resulting in a weaker near - end spread [14][15]. - **Fundamental quantitative indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, and the latest signal was negative from September 10th to 11th. The current forward - looking indicator of crude oil fundamentals is also neutral, and the latest signal was positive only on September 16th [18]. - **US autumn maintenance and distillate performance**: As of September 12th, the US refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% month - on - month, indicating the start of the traditional autumn maintenance. Distillate demand decreased instead of increasing during the traditional autumn harvest season, and inventory increased during the period of declining refinery operating rate, which is contrary to the seasonal trend [21]. - **Summary of September report views of major energy institutions**: The three institutions did not significantly adjust the demand side, but IEA and EIA increased the supply forecast. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. - **Fed's September meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot in September showed that the doves gradually dominated. There are obvious contradictions in this meeting, highlighting internal differences within the Fed [23][26]. - **Russia - Ukraine situation**: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have stagnated, but there may be a turning point. Trump said a cease - fire agreement may be near. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy facilities led to a short - term rise in oil prices [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, the probability of this year's hurricane activity exceeding the normal level is 60%, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days [29]. 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Various charts show the trends of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different types of crude oil and related indicators such as net long positions in futures and options [32][34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure and spreads**: Charts display the structure of crude oil futures (such as the prices of different contract months) and various spreads (monthly spreads, cross - market futures spreads, cross - market spot spreads, etc.) [40][43][46]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different regions and different grades of crude oil in October compared to September [56]. - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the prices and cracking spreads of refined product futures and spot in different regions (US, Europe, Asia, etc.) [61][63][66]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global crude oil supply**: It includes the supply of OPEC, non - OPEC, and the total global supply. Data shows the historical and predicted values of these supplies [82]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC supply details**: Details of non - OPEC supply from countries like the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil, as well as OPEC supply (including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries) are presented [85][88][91]. - **Global rig count**: Information on the number of rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of US oil rigs and related production indicators [97][99]. - **Refinery unit shutdown volume**: Data on the shutdown volume of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [102][104]. - **Global crude oil demand**: It includes the demand of OECD and non - OECD regions and the total global demand, with historical and predicted values [106]. - **Inventory data**: Inventory data for the US, OECD, and other regions (such as Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China) are provided [114][117][119]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows the supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes of global crude oil from 2025 to 2026 [134]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [149]. - **Supply data**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are presented [152][155].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report implies a relatively bearish outlook for the oil market [8] 2. Report's Core View - The EIA report for the week is a mixed bag, with a significant decline in crude oil inventory exceeding market expectations and a substantial drop in gasoline inventory. However, more forward - looking data shows weakness, such as the decline in refinery operating rates indicating the start of autumn maintenance, and the poor performance of distillates leading to a counter - seasonal increase in inventory, which may promote refinery maintenance. Overall, it is a relatively bearish report [8] 3. Summary by Related Data 3.1 Inventory Data - As of September 12, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 415.361 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 857,000 barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 1 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [2][3] - The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain increased by 1.675 million barrels [3] 3.2 Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day [3] 3.3 Demand Data - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 217,250 barrels per day to 20.671 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.91875 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 86,500 barrels per day to 3.72675 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.70275 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Market Impact and Analysis - The large - scale decline in U.S. crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to a significant increase in exports, resulting in a large decrease in net imports. The single - week export data reached 5.277 million barrels per day, a new high since 2024. However, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3%, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn maintenance [4] - In the traditional autumn harvest consumption season, distillate demand decreased instead of increasing, causing inventory to rise during the period of declining refinery operating rates. The current large increase in distillate inventory is counter - seasonal, which may affect distillate cracking and accelerate the progress of refinery autumn maintenance [6] - After the release of the EIA report, oil prices fell slightly and further declined after the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil remains under the pressure of the large - supply narrative in the medium to long term. As supply continues to increase and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short - term interference factors mainly include Middle East geopolitical situations and potential sanctions against Russia. Next week, the Fed meeting needs attention [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's monthly report view: Crude oil is under long - term supply pressure. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with seasonal weakness in demand and US autumn maintenance, the supply - demand imbalance will be more obvious, and oil prices will be pressured. Short - term interference factors include OPEC+ meeting results, Russia - Ukraine peace talks progress, sanctions, and the Fed's September meeting decision. - This week's price trend: Oil prices first rose and then fell. The rise was due to OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, Middle East geopolitics, and potential sanctions against Russia. However, oil prices turned down after institutional monthly reports maintained the large - supply narrative. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is continuously loose, terminal demand is okay, and the US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period (2.1 - 2.4). - Institutional monthly reports: IEA and EIA continue the large - supply narrative and predict a significant increase in inventory (2.5 - 2.8). - OPEC+: Still committed to competing for market share (2.9 - 2.12). - Fed's September meeting: The market has fully priced in a 25BP interest rate cut, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts (2.13) [9]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - **2.1 Global near - month spreads oscillated weakly**: Global main market Brent and WTI near - month spreads continued to decline, indicating a further slowdown in spot supply - demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][13]. - **2.2 Crack spreads still have support**: Global spot prices generally still have support. US spot crack spreads oscillated, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly. Combining with 2.1, although terminal demand is okay, leading to stable or rebounding crack spreads in some regions, the supply increase is greater, causing the near - end spreads to weaken [14][15][16]. - **2.3 Fundamental quantitative indicators (beta version)**: The current comprehensive fundamental indicator of crude oil is negative, triggered from the close on 9/10 and lasting for 2 days. The forward - looking fundamental indicator is neutral, with the last signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1 [19]. - **2.4 US inventory and demand situation**: As of September 5, the US refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 94.9%, indicating that traditional autumn maintenance has not fully started. All major crude oil product inventories increased this week, with gasoline inventory unexpectedly rising and distillate inventory rising far beyond expectations, driving a significant increase in the total inventory of the crude oil chain. Gasoline implied demand dropped to 850.8 million barrels per day, far lower than the previous level of around 9 million barrels per day. Distillate inventory increase is against the seasonal trend, which will suppress future refinery utilization rates and corresponding refining demand [21]. - **2.5 Main energy institutions' September report views summary**: IEA, OPEC, and EIA have different forecasts for demand and supply growth rates. IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply forecasts, and EIA predicts a significant decline in Brent crude oil prices in the next few months due to supply increases [22]. - **2.8 EIA monthly report balance sheet changes**: EIA comprehensively raised the supply and demand forecasts for the second half of this year and all quarters of next year, with a larger increase in the supply side, making the balance sheet looser month by month. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [30]. - **2.10 OPEC+ announced a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in October**: In the September 7 meeting, OPEC+ announced a gradual withdrawal from the 1.65 - million - barrel - per - day production cut agreement starting in October and a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in that month. Except for Kazakhstan's continuous over - production, other countries have well - implemented the plan [36]. - **2.13 Attention to the Fed's September interest - rate meeting**: US employment data is weak, and inflation data is stubborn. The market has fully priced in a 25BP interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, but the subsequent rate - cut path depends on economic data and Fed independence. The number of preventive interest - rate cuts is determined by the employment market and overall economic performance, which is generally negative for crude oil, except when core inflation significantly declines [42]. - **2.14 North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level but is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key Gulf of Mexico area in the next 7 days [44]. 3.3 Price, Spreads, and Crack Spreads - **3.1 Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Presented the trends of Brent, WTI, Oman, and SC crude oil futures and spot prices [47]. - **3.3 WTI crude oil position report**: Showed the net long positions of WTI futures and options and related position - price relationships [52]. - **3.4 Crude oil futures structure**: Displayed the futures price structures of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC [55]. - **3.5 Crude oil spreads**: Presented the spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC (M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc.) [58]. - **3.6 Cross - market futures spreads**: Showed cross - market futures spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [60]. - **3.7 Cross - market spot spreads**: Presented cross - market spot spreads like Brent - WTI, Brent - Dubai, etc. [63]. - **3.8 American spot spreads**: Displayed American spot spreads such as Midland - Cushing, LLS - MARS, etc. [66]. - **3.9 Asian spot spreads**: Presented Asian spot spreads such as Tapis - Dubai, Tapis - Minas [69]. - **3.10 Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in the October crude oil premium for all regions, with a reduction range of 0.6 - 1.0 US dollars per barrel, exceeding market expectations [39][70]. - **3.14 Refined product spot prices**: Showed the spot prices of refined products in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, Northwest Europe, and Singapore [80]. - **3.15 Refined product spot crack spreads**: Presented the spot crack spreads of refined products in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, Northwest Europe, and Singapore [83]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **4.1 Global crude oil total supply**: Presented the supply trends of global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil [96]. - **4.2 Non - OPEC crude oil total supply**: Showed the supply trends of non - OPEC countries such as the US, the former Soviet Union region, China, and Brazil [99]. - **4.3 OPEC crude oil total supply**: Displayed OPEC's crude oil production, capacity, and remaining capacity trends [102]. - **4.4 OPEC crude oil supply - major countries**: Showed the crude oil supply trends of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait [105]. - **4.5 OPEC crude oil supply - exempt countries**: Presented the crude oil supply trends of OPEC exempt countries such as Iran, Libya, and Venezuela [108]. - **4.6 Global rig count**: Showed the rig counts of the US, Canada, and the global total [111]. - **4.7 US crude oil rigs**: Displayed the US rig count, uncompleted well number, single - well new production, and oil - gas total production [113]. - **4.9 FCC unit outages**: Presented the FCC unit outage volumes globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [118]. - **4.11 OECD crude oil total demand**: Showed the demand trends of OECD countries such as the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan [122]. - **4.12 Non - OECD crude oil total demand**: Presented the demand trends of non - OECD countries such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil [125]. - **4.13 Crude oil total inventory**: Showed the inventory trends of the US, OECD, and global total inventory and consumption [128]. - **4.17 EIA balance sheet**: Presented the EIA's supply, consumption, balance, and balance change data from 2025Q3 to 2026Q4 [148]. - **4.19 Singapore refined product inventory**: Showed the inventory trends of light distillates, middle distillates, residue, and total refined products in Singapore [142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - to long - term outlook for oil prices is bearish, but the short - term market is subject to supply - side disturbances [8] Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively bearish. Although refinery operating rates indicate that U.S. refineries have not fully started autumn maintenance, inventory and demand indicators suggest it is inevitable. With declining refining demand and increasing supply, oil prices are bearish in the medium to long term, while the short - term market is affected by supply - side factors [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Main Data - As of September 5, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 424,646 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 393,900 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 100,000 barrels. Cushing inventories decreased by 36,500 barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 51,400 barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventories increased by 145,800 barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 20,000 barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 471,500 barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 4,000 barrels [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 72 thousand barrels per day to 13,495 thousand barrels per day, and net imports increased by 668 thousand barrels per day to 3,526 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased by 51 thousand barrels per day to 16,818 thousand barrels per day [3] - The four - week smoothed values of U.S. crude oil, gasoline, distillate, and jet fuel terminal apparent demand all decreased [3] 2. Report Review - Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased due to a significant drop in exports leading to increased net imports. However, the sustainability of the export decline needs further observation as there is a periodic decline pattern at the beginning of the month [4] - Refinery operating rates increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 94.9%, indicating that traditional autumn maintenance has not fully begun [4] 3. Product Oil Situation - All major crude oil product inventories rose this week, with gasoline inventories unexpectedly rising and distillate inventories rising far more than expected, driving a significant increase in the total crude oil chain inventory [6] - Except for propane and propylene, the four - week smoothed values of all terminal demand categories decreased. The single - week implied demand for gasoline was only 850,800 barrels per day, far lower than the previous level of around 900,000 barrels per day, which is in line with seasonal patterns [6] - The significant increase in distillate inventories is counter - seasonal. Usually, after September, distillate inventories tend to decline during refinery autumn maintenance and the autumn harvest consumption peak, but this week's large - scale inventory build - up will suppress future refinery operating rates and corresponding refining demand [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report - Supply-Demand Imbalance May Become More Pronounced [1] - Author: Xiao Yu - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] Group 2: Monthly View - Last Month's View: In August, attention was on the trend of diesel cracking. If diesel cracking continued to weaken, it would put pressure on oil prices. There were also significant disturbances such as Russian oil sanctions and whether OPEC+ would further reduce production in the fourth quarter [9] - This Month's Price Trend: Oil prices declined at the beginning of August due to optimistic expectations for the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Two positive EIA weekly reports and slow progress in the peace talks led to a rebound in the second half of the month, but oil prices were pressured again as OPEC+ might increase production [9] - Fundamental Factors: Crude oil supply is expected to increase continuously. The US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period, and diesel cracking remains strong [9] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled. If there is no substantial progress, it may lead to sanctions risks [9] - Fed's September Meeting: It is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts [9] - Monthly View: Crude oil is still under pressure from the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with the seasonal weakness in demand and the US autumn maintenance, the supply-demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short-term interference factors include the results of the OPEC+ meeting, the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and sanctions, and the decision of the Fed's September meeting [9] Group 3: Monthly Highlights - Global Near-Term Spread: The global near-term spread showed a downward trend in August, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][12] - Crack Spread: The crack spread still has support. The US spot crack spread showed a volatile trend, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly [14][15] - OPEC+ Production: From the OPEC monthly report, OPEC+ has generally met the production increase targets, with Kazakhstan still overproducing significantly. From the IEA monthly report, some countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE have overproduced. OPEC+ is expected to continue to increase production to regain market share [19][20] - US Refinery Operations: As of August 29, the US refinery operating rate declined for the second consecutive week. With the end of the driving peak season, refineries will enter the autumn maintenance period, which will directly suppress crude oil demand [22] - Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks: The peace process has stalled, and the fundamental differences between the two sides on territorial and security issues are difficult to resolve. The lack of progress may add risk premiums to the market [23] - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates, but the subsequent rate cut path depends on economic data and the Fed's independence. Generally, preventive rate cuts have a negative impact on crude oil, but if core inflation drops significantly, rate cuts can be positive [26] - North American Hurricane Forecast: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas in the next 7 days [28] Group 4: Price, Spread, and Crack - Crude Oil Futures and Spot Trends: The report presents the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC's basket price, WTI, Brent, and Dubai crude oil [31] - WTI and Brent Futures Positions: The report shows the net long positions of futures and options for WTI and Brent, as well as the positions of different market participants such as swap dealers, managed funds, and producers [33][36] - Crude Oil Futures Structure: The report displays the futures structure of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC, including the prices of different contract months [39] - Crude Oil Calendar Spreads: The report shows the trends of calendar spreads for different crude oils, such as M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc. [42] - Cross-Market Futures and Spot Spreads: The report presents the cross-market futures and spot spreads, such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [45][48] - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia has adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different grades of crude oil to different regions, with price increases for Asian destinations and price decreases for Mediterranean destinations [55] - Refined Product Prices and Crack Spreads: The report shows the prices and crack spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil in different regions, including the US, Europe, and Asia [60][62] Group 5: Supply-Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global Crude Oil Supply: The report presents the supply of global, non-OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil, including production, capacity, and remaining capacity [81][83][86] - Global Rig Count: The report shows the number of oil rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of oil and gas rigs in different regions of the US [95] - US Refinery Shutdowns: The report presents the shutdown volumes of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [99][101] - Global Crude Oil Demand: The report shows the demand for global, OECD, and non-OECD crude oil, as well as the demand in different countries and regions [103][106][109] - Crude Oil Inventory: The report presents the inventory of crude oil in the US, OECD, and different countries and regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve [112][115][117] - EIA Balance Sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows the global crude oil supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025 to 2026 [132]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: This week, refinery operations declined, but next week, refinery operations are expected to pick up. Currently, asphalt has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventory. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is not expected to have significant upside potential, mainly following the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, the asphalt trend showed a rise followed by a fall, generally following the trend of the cost-side crude oil [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, both supply and demand of refineries decreased, and the decline in refinery operations led to a low-level drop in refinery inventory. The previously persistent social inventory decreased slightly this week, but the curve still significantly lags behind the same period in previous years. As the peak season deepens, it will limit the upside space of asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: Next week, refinery operations are expected to pick up, and some large facilities in the north have plans to resume production. Currently, asphalt consumption has entered the peak season, and the upside space depends on whether demand can drive down social inventory. However, demand is restricted by the capital side and is not expected to have significant upside potential, mainly following the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 01 Weekly Viewpoint - The report analyzes the asphalt market from last week to this week, including refinery operations, inventory changes, and market trends, and provides a forecast for next week, emphasizing that the market is mainly affected by cost and demand [7]. 3.2 02 Data Overview - **2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis**: Presents the trends of asphalt futures prices, monthly spreads (BU9 - BU12), and basis in East China and Shandong regions, with data sources from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. - **2.2 Asphalt Supply**: Displays data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. - **2.3 Asphalt Demand**: Shows data on asphalt shipments, apparent consumption, paver sales, and the product of paver sales and asphalt apparent consumption, sourced from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. - **2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports**: Presents data on asphalt imports, exports, import windows in East China and South China, and the price differences between imported完税 prices from South Korea and Singapore and the mainstream prices in East China and South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. - **2.5 Asphalt Inventory**: Displays data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. - **2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Shows data on the operating rate, shipments, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. - **2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Presents data on the operating rate, shipments, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. - **2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Displays data on the operating rate, shipments, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. - **Asphalt Production Enterprise Maintenance Information**: Lists the maintenance information of multiple asphalt production enterprises, including the maintenance device, production capacity, maintenance time, end time, and the total annual production capacity and maintenance loss volume [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The EIA report for the week is relatively bearish due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and the potential entry of refineries into the autumn maintenance period. The start of autumn maintenance at US refineries under the global crude oil production increase scenario is expected to widen the supply - demand gap. Although distillate demand is strong and inventories are low, which may support the diesel crack spread, the impact of refinery maintenance on crude oil demand will be more reflected in the crude oil market [4][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - As of August 29, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 420.707 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.415 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 1.59 million barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.509 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 3.795 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.1 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 1.681 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 0.6 million barrels. The total inventory of the US crude oil chain increased by 7.611 million barrels [2][3] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production decreased by 16 thousand barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day from August 22 to August 29. US crude oil net imports increased by 434 thousand barrels per day to 2.858 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume decreased by 11 thousand barrels per day to 16.869 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed US crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 132.5 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 19.25 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 12 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand decreased by 0.25 thousand barrels per day [3] Refinery and Market Conditions - US refinery utilization rate declined for the second consecutive week, dropping 0.3% to 94.3%, moving further away from the previous high of nearly 97%. After the report was released, the market generally trended downwards. With the end of the driving peak season after the Labor Day weekend in early September, refinery operations are expected to follow a seasonal decline pattern, which is a bearish factor for crude oil demand [4][6] Product - Specific Analysis - Gasoline inventory decreased significantly before the Labor Day weekend, but the data at the end of the peak season has limited influence. Distillate demand, which rises seasonally with the start of the autumn harvest, remains stable. Although distillate inventory increased, it is still at a low level, and the distillate crack spread is expected to remain strong. However, due to the smaller consumption volume of distillates compared to gasoline, the overall terminal demand is expected to decline in the future [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's main view: With an increase in short - term maintenance volume and a decrease in rainy weather in the future, it was expected that asphalt would improve marginally. However, demand was still restricted by the capital side. It was anticipated that asphalt would have difficulty in having an independent market and would mainly follow the cost side [7]. - This week's trend analysis: This week, the overall trend of asphalt was volatile, following the trend of the cost - side crude oil [7]. - This week's industry data: This week, refinery supply decreased while demand increased. The decline in refinery operation rate led to a drop in refinery inventories. However, the social inventory, which had been having difficulty in destocking, still showed no sign of a sustainable decline. As the peak season deepened, it would limit the upward space of asphalt [7]. - This week's main view: This week, the refinery operation rate decreased, but it is expected to rise next week. Currently, asphalt has entered the peak season. The upward space depends on whether demand can drive down the social inventory. However, due to the restriction of the capital side on demand, it is expected that there will be little room for a significant upward movement, and it will mainly follow the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 01 Weekly View - Analyzed last week's and this week's views on asphalt market trends, taking into account factors such as maintenance volume, rainy weather, capital - side restrictions, refinery supply and demand, and inventory changes [7]. 3.2 02 Data Overview 3.2.1 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis - Presented data on asphalt futures price trends, spreads between different contract months (e.g., BU2509 - BU2512), and basis in the East China and Shandong regions, with data sourced from Wind and Steel Union Data [9][10][11]. 3.2.2 2.2 Asphalt Supply - Showed data on asphalt plant operation rate, weekly production, refinery asphalt profit, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operation rate, sourced from Steel Union Data [12][13][14]. 3.2.3 2.3 Asphalt Demand - Displayed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and related indicators, with data from Steel Union Data [15][16][17]. 3.2.4 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports - Provided data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in the East China and South China regions, sourced from Steel Union Data [18][19][20]. 3.2.5 2.5 Asphalt Inventory - Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume, sourced from Steel Union Data [21][22][23]. 3.2.6 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Presented data on Shandong's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [24][25][26]. 3.2.7 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Showed data on East China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [27][28][29]. 3.2.8 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory - Provided data on South China's asphalt operation rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory, sourced from Steel Union Data [30][31][32]. 3.2.9 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule - Listed refineries under maintenance, including details such as production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacity, maintenance start and end times, with a total annual production capacity of 2561 tons and a maintenance loss of 682,000 tons, sourced from Steel Union Data [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Crude oil remains under the pressure of the large supply narrative in the medium to long term. As the demand side gradually exits the peak season, the imbalance between supply and demand will become more significant. However, the short - term market lacks effective drivers. The potential sanctions caused by the stagnant progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may lead to a rebound in oil prices next week. Additionally, market information before the September 7th meeting of the eight voluntary - production - cut countries of OPEC+ will also disrupt the market [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Viewpoint - Last week's view: Crude oil was under long - term supply pressure, but short - term data might ease market pessimism and potential changes in Russia - Ukraine talks could trigger a limited - height rebound. This week, oil prices weakened at the beginning due to concerns about the end of the demand peak season and US sanctions on India, and rebounded later due to a positive EIA report and re - assessment of the stalled Russia - Ukraine peace talks [10]. - Fundamental factors: Terminal demand has resilience, but large supply suppresses the monthly spread. Future demand will shift to diesel [10]. - Russia - Ukraine peace talks: Progress is slow. Without substantial progress in the short term, there is a risk of sanctions, which has a positive marginal impact on oil prices [10]. - Policy factors: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish with a hawkish undertone. Attention should be paid to market information during the OPEC+ policy window period (before September 7) [10]. 02 Weekly Highlights - Global near - month spreads: They declined overall in August, indicating a slowdown in immediate supply and demand. Some markets' recent monthly spreads have flattened but remain weak [14]. - Crack spreads: Global crack spreads remained stable this week, but there was a decline in the US Gulf crack spread. Terminal demand is okay, but supply growth is stronger, causing the near - end spread to weaken [16]. - Fundamental quantitative indicators: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, with the last signal being negative. The forward - looking indicator is also neutral, with the last signal being negative. These indicators have limitations in non - fundamental and impulse - type market situations [19]. - US terminal demand shift: US gasoline demand is lower than last year and the five - year average, indicating weak consumer ability and willingness. After the US Labor Day in early September, demand will shift to diesel due to autumn harvest, and diesel crack spreads may support oil prices [22]. - Russia - Ukraine peace talks impact: The Russia - Ukraine peace process is likely to have a positive impact on oil prices in the short term, especially before there is no substantial progress, as the Trump - Zelensky and Trump - Putin meetings have not led to strong meeting intentions, and the two - week buffer period is about to expire [23]. - Powell's speech: Market generally believes Powell's speech was dovish, but it also has a hawkish side. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, but it is not certain. Key data before the September meeting will affect the decision. Fed rate cuts are likely to have a negative impact on oil prices [24]. - OPEC+ production: Kazakhstan is still over - producing significantly, while other countries generally meet production targets according to the OPEC monthly report. OPEC+ is regaining market share, and it plans to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production - cut agreement by the end of September. Attention should be paid to the remaining production - cut agreements, especially information before the September 7 meeting [26]. - North American hurricane forecast: This year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is calmer than last year. Hurricanes can disrupt supply, but currently, there are no hurricanes in the US Gulf, and no potential cyclones are forecasted in the next 7 days [28]. 03 Price, Spread, and Crack - Multiple aspects of price, spread, and crack data are presented, including crude oil futures and spot prices, positions, futures structures, monthly spreads, cross - market spreads, Saudi OSP, and refined product prices and crack spreads [31][33][54]. 04 Supply - Demand and Inventory Balance Sheet - Global supply: Data on global, non - OPEC, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil supplies are provided, including historical trends and forecasts [80]. - Non - OPEC supply: Information about the supply of major non - OPEC countries such as the US, the former Soviet Union region, China, and Brazil is presented [82]. - OPEC supply: Details about OPEC's total supply, production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries are given [85][88][91]. - Global rig count: Data on US, Canadian, North American, and global rig counts are shown [94]. - US crude oil rig: Information about US rig numbers, well completion, and production is provided [96]. - CDU and FCC device shutdown: Data on global, US, Northwest European, and Asian CDU and FCC device shutdown volumes are presented [98][100]. - Global demand: Data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand are provided, including historical trends and forecasts [102]. - OECD demand: Information about the demand of major OECD countries such as the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan is presented [105]. - Non - OECD demand: Details about the demand of major non - OECD countries such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil are given [108]. - Crude oil inventory: Data on US, OECD, and global crude oil inventories are provided, including historical trends and forecasts [111]. - EIA balance sheet: The EIA balance sheet shows supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes from 2025Q1 to 2026Q2 [131]. 05 EIA Weekly Report and Other - Only the title "5.1 EIA周报主要数据" is provided, and specific data is not given in the content.