Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is bearish as the PTA price declines, downstream polyester factories cut production, expected supply increases, and market sentiment is weak. The MEG market shows stable futures and spot prices, with a stable basis. The polyester industry is facing challenges as polyester enters the maintenance cycle, downstream weaving profits shrink, and terminal loads decline [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price rose from 510.7 yuan/barrel on July 8th to 519.7 yuan/barrel on July 9th, an increase of 9.00 yuan [2]. - PTA-SC spread decreased from 998.7 yuan/ton to 941.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.40 yuan; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2691 to 1.2492, a decrease of 0.0199 [2]. - CFR China PX price rose from 847 to 850, an increase of 3; PX-naphtha spread decreased from 270 to 264, a decrease of 7 [2]. - PTA主力期价 rose from 4710 yuan/ton to 4718 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.0 yuan; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4800 yuan/ton to 4750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.0 yuan [2]. - PTA现货加工费 decreased from 225.8 yuan/ton to 159.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66.7 yuan; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 135.8 yuan/ton to 127.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.7 yuan [2]. - PTA主力基差 decreased from 91 to 36, a decrease of 55.0; PTA仓单数量 increased from 33905 to 36155, an increase of 2250 [2]. - MEG主力期价 rose from 4267 yuan/ton to 4283 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.0 yuan; MEG内盘 rose from 4345 to 4347, an increase of 2.0 [2]. - MEG主力基差 decreased from 72 to 70, a decrease of 2.0; MEG-naphtha spread increased from (118.07) yuan/ton to (117.26) yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8 [2]. Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 remained at 78.98%; PTA开工率 remained at 80.59%; MEG开工率 remained at 57.41%;聚酯负荷 remained at 87.30% [2]. Polyester Product Data - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6760 to 6700, a decrease of 60.0; POY现金流 decreased from (50) to (67), a decrease of 17.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6975; FDY现金流 increased from (335) to (292), an increase of 43.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price decreased from 8055 to 7960, a decrease of 95.0; DTY现金流 decreased from 45 to (7), a decrease of 52.0 [2]. - 长丝产销 increased from 34% to 41%, an increase of 7% [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 price decreased from 6735 to 6730, a decrease of 5; 涤短现金流 increased from 275 to 313, an increase of 38.0 [2]. - 短纤产销 increased from 45% to 50%, an increase of 5% [2]. - 半光切片 price decreased from 5805 to 5800, a decrease of 5.0; 切片现金流 increased from (105) to (67), an increase of 38.0 [2]. - 切片产销 decreased from 47% to 44%, a decrease of 3% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after a shutdown for maintenance around May 6th. A 3 million - ton PTA device in East China has shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: On July 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.0% to 776.82 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.2% to 889 yuan/kilogram. Trump extended the tariff suspension to August 1 and pressured for talks. The new tariff letter's tax rate did not increase significantly, and the US said it would meet with Chinese officials next month. This eased tariff concerns and reduced safe - haven demand, which was bearish for precious metals from a macro perspective. Also, the US economic data was okay, the economic downturn risk in the second half of the year weakened, and the Fed was unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term, which also suppressed precious metals. However, due to tariff policy uncertainties, China's central bank's continuous gold - buying for 8 months, and weakening US inflation expectations with a September rate - cut expectation, gold prices were unlikely to decline significantly. So, in the short term, precious metals were expected to continue to fluctuate [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still had a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensifying major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold - buying continued. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold remained unchanged. The strategy suggested continuous low - buying [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Tracking - **15 - point prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver**: On July 9, 2025, London gold spot was 3293.35 dollars/ounce, down 1.3% from July 8; London silver spot was 36.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. COMEX gold was 3301.80 dollars/ounce, down 1.3%; CONEX silver was 36.80 dollars/ounce, down 0.7%. AU2508 was 764.70 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG2508 was 8879.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.5%. AU (T + D) was 763.00 yuan/gram, down 1.2%; AG (T + D) was 8864.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.6% [3]. - **Price differences/ratios**: On July 9, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.7 yuan/gram, up - 8.6% from July 8; the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 15 yuan/kilogram, up 36.4%. The gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was 5.50 yuan/gram, up 11.3%; the silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) price difference was - 574 yuan/kilogram, up - 1.9%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 86.12, down - 0.7%; the COMEX main ratio was 89.72, down - 0.6%. AU2512 - 2508 was 3.82 yuan/gram, down - 6.4%; AG2512 - 2508 was 40 yuan/kilogram, down - 14.9% [3]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX non - commercial positions**: As of July 8, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 946.51 tons, down - 0.12% from July 7; the silver ETF - SLV was 14935.15145 tons, up 0.45%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 258631 contracts, up 1.00%; non - commercial short positions were 56651 contracts, down - 7.24%; non - commercial net long positions were 201980 contracts, up 3.58%. CONEX silver non - commercial long positions were 82747 contracts, down - 2.06%; non - commercial short positions were 19347 contracts, down - 10.20%; non - commercial net long positions were 63400 contracts, up 0.72% [3]. Inventory Data - **Domestic and foreign inventories**: On July 9, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 21585.00 kilograms, up 0.13% from July 8; SHFE silver inventory was 1320909.00 kilograms, down - 1.04%. On July 8, COMEX gold inventory was 36876794 ounces, up 0.43% from July 7; COMEX silver inventory was 497932946 ounces, down - 0.07% [3]. Related Market Indexes - **July 9, 2025 data**: The dollar index was 97.49, up 0.01% from July 8; the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 3.90%, unchanged; the 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, up 0.06%. VIX was 16.81, down - 5.51%; the S&P 500 was 6225.52, up 0.45%; NYMEX crude oil was 68.18 dollars/barrel, down - 0.07%. The dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, up 0.38% [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The news of steel production restrictions helps warm up the sentiment in the futures market, but the follow - up momentum of the spot market is insufficient, and administrative interference may increase. The market expectations and confidence have improved [5]. - The futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke are rising in resonance. The first round of coke price increase is still in the making. The fundamentals of carbon elements may weaken in July [6]. - The short - term driving force of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and the prices are mainly fluctuating [7]. - Under the "anti - involution" trading, attention should be paid to the trends of new energy and photovoltaic related varieties. The short - term is not suitable to short the black market [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On July 9, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3087 yuan/ton with a rise of 6 yuan (0.19%), HC2601 at 3201 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.09%), I2601 at 710 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan (0.71%), J2601 at 1491.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 25 yuan (1.70%), and JM2601 at 911 yuan/ton with a rise of 23.5 yuan (2.65%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton with a rise of 2 yuan (0.07%), HC2510 at 3190 yuan/ton with a rise of 3 yuan (0.09%), I2509 at 736.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 5 yuan (0.68%), J2509 at 1456 yuan/ton with a rise of 34.5 yuan (2.43%), and JM2509 at 871.5 yuan/ton with a rise of 32 yuan (3.81%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On July 9, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 was - 24 yuan/ton with a change of - 4 yuan, HC2510 - 2601 was 11 yuan/ton with a change of - 2 yuan, I2509 - 2601 was 26.5 yuan/ton with a change of 0.5 yuan, J2509 - 2601 was - 35.5 yuan/ton with a change of 10.5 yuan, and JM2509 - 2601 was - 39.5 yuan/ton with a change of 8 yuan. The spread/ratio/profit of the main contracts: the coil - screw spread was 127 yuan/ton with a change of - 1 yuan, the screw - ore ratio was 4.16 with a change of - 0.02, the coal - coke ratio was 1.67 with a change of - 0.02, the screw disk profit was - 162.03 yuan with a change of - 21.53 yuan, and the coking disk profit was 296.91 yuan with a change of - 5.74 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On July 9, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou threaded steel were 3170 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 3230 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Platts Index was 95.3 (up 0.1). The prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3210 yuan/ton (unchanged), 3290 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and 3200 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The billet - material spread was 260 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan), and the price of PB at Rizhao Port was 727 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan). The prices of imported ore at Qingdao Port, carbon coking coal, coking coal at Ganqimao Port, and quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port were 615 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), 650 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), 840 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 1280 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [2]. - **Basis**: On July 9, the basis of HC main contract was 20 yuan/ton with a change of 1 yuan, RB main contract was 107 yuan/ton with a change of 40 yuan, I main contract was 9 yuan/ton (unchanged), J main contract was - 44.66 yuan/ton with a change of - 31.5 yuan, and JM main contract was - 1.5 yuan/ton with a change of - 13 yuan [2]. Industry Analysis - **Steel**: The news of production restrictions warms up the futures market sentiment, but the follow - up of the spot market is insufficient. The market confidence in the spot market is not strong in the off - season. The administrative interference probability of production restrictions will increase from July to August. The unilateral trend turns to shock, and the basis is approaching the time node for re - entering the spot - futures positive arbitrage [5][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures and spot markets are rising in resonance. The first round of coke price increase is expected. The fundamentals of carbon elements may weaken in July. Industrial customers can continue to seize the premium opportunity to establish spot - futures positive arbitrage positions [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term driving force is insufficient, and the prices are mainly fluctuating. Hold long - call options [7][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore production has declined. Under the "anti - involution" trading, the short - term is not suitable to short the black market. The steel mill profit is high, and the daily average iron ore is expected to remain at a high level in July. The increase in arrivals will ease the pressure on near - month contracts [8].

Report Summary Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 24.35 points, a 0.7% increase, at 3497.48 points, with a turnover of 567.507 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 152.88 points, a 1.46% increase, at 10588.39 points, with a turnover of 886.443 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index closed up 50.89 points, a 2.39% increase, at 2181.08 points, with a turnover of 436.544 billion yuan; the CSI 300 closed up 33.28 points, an 0.84% increase, at 3998.45 points, with a turnover of 292.09 billion yuan [9] Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Turnover (billion yuan) | Volume (billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2747.1875 | 0.57 | 67.879 | 34.08 | | CSI 300 | 3998.4527 | 0.84 | 292.09 | 156.40 | | CSI 1000 | 6407.6976 | 1.27 | 306.817 | 235.13 | [4] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Option Trading Volume (million contracts) | Call Option Volume | Put Option Volume | PCR | Option Open Interest (million contracts) | Call Option Open Interest | Put Option Open Interest | Open Interest PCR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3.49 | 2.53 | 0.97 | 0.38 | 6.87 | 4.37 | 2.50 | 0.57 | | CSI 300 | 9.41 | 6.50 | 2.91 | 0.45 | 19.25 | 11.32 | 7.94 | 0.70 | | CSI 1000 | 27.11 | 15.75 | 11.36 | 0.72 | 26.84 | 13.20 | 13.64 | 1.03 | [4] Volatility Analysis - Analyzed historical volatility and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, including minimum, maximum, 10%, 30%, 60%, 90% quantile values, and current values, as well as next - month at - the - money implied volatility [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, which is expected to continue to put pressure on the spot basis and the near - month futures market. If Sino - US policies remain unchanged, the far - month futures are expected to be supported by import costs. There is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider low - level long positions for M01 [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Supply - The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet maintains a tight expectation. The current good - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the same period last year, and there are no obvious abnormalities in short - term temperature and rainfall. The customs soybean import volume in May was close to 14 million tons, a record high. The expected arrivals in June, July, and August are at a high level, and the oil mill operating rate remains high [5][6]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio, the proportion of feed addition has increased, and the提货 is at a high level. However, in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal is weak [6]. Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, soybean meal is accelerating inventory accumulation, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased [6]. Price and Spread - The document provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts in different regions on July 8, including the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian, Tianjin, etc., and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot and rapeseed meal spot. It also shows the spread data such as M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1, as well as the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [4][5]. Other Data - The document also includes data on the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, soybean CNF premium, soybean inventory in Chinese ports and major oil mills across the country, soybean meal inventory in major oil mills and feed enterprises, soybean crushing volume and operating rate of major oil mills [5].

| 可能做 | | | | 日時 策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分格号:F025192 | | | | 发布日期 2025/07 | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | | | 短期内,国内外利多因素平平,市场情绪和流动性尚可,股指或 呈现偏强震荡格局。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | | 否间。 | | | | 黄金 | | 震荡 | 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | T 自银 | | 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 | | | | | 温. | 铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | 看空 的。 | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | | 氧化铝 | | 辰川 | 国内反内卷政策提振供给侧改革预期,氧化铝价格企稳回升。 | | | | | | 宏观情绪改善下锌价企稳,基本面上累 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/9 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/7 | 2025/7/8 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 502. 3 | 510. 7 | 8. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情微幅下跌,盘中原油偏弱震荡,下游聚 | | | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1059. 7 | 998. 7 | -61.04 | 酯工厂进一步减产,PTA需求走弱,且供应恢复下市场 心态谨慎,现货价格及基差有所走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2903 | 1. 2691 | -0. 0212 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 842 | 847 | 5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 270 | 7 | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一国贸易货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 2025/7/9 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/7 | 2025/7/8 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4810 | 4800 | (10.00) | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4345 | 4360 | 15.00 | 现货资讯: | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4710 | 0.00 | 短纤:聚酯瓶片江浙市场主流商谈在5900-6010 | | MEG收盘价 | 4279 | 4267 | (12.00) | 吨,均价较上一工作日跌5元/吨。日内聚酯原料 | | | | | | 及瓶片期货窄幅震荡,供应端报盘多数维持,下 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6760 | 6735 | (25.00) | 游采购维持刚需补库,市场交投气氛谨慎,今日 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.31 | 0.01 | DR007 | 1.46 | -0.25 | | हूं | GC001 | 1.50 | 1.00 | GC007 | 1.52 | 1.50 | | E | SHBOR 3M | 1.57 | -0.90 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 1.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.48 | 0.85 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.64 | 0.35 | 10年期美债 | 0.00 | -435.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了690亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market shows an upward trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The tariff extension will keep the cargo shipment from the Far East to the US going for some time, which is beneficial for August and reduces the expected decline from the high point in August, leading to the repair of the discount [12]. - The spot price of the European route is stable in early July. The market expects shipping companies to announce price increases in August as usual, but the actual effect may not be optimistic due to the disrupted shipping rhythm. Currently, it is in a state of stable reality and weak expectations [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1763, down 5.27% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1343, down 1.92%. SCFI - US West dropped 18.97%, SCFIS - US West fell 3.83%, SCFI - US East decreased 12.57%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe rose 3.50%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe increased 6.36%, and SCFI - Mediterranean declined 3.89% [5]. - **Forward Contracts**: For EC contracts, most of the current values are higher than the previous values, with the increase rate ranging from 1.68% to 6.23%. The EC2508 contract has the highest increase rate of 6.23% [5]. - **Positions**: The positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the EC2606 position increased by 18, and the EC2508 position increased by 536 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread increased by 73.0, the 12 - 2 monthly spread decreased by 6.7, and the 12 - 4 monthly spread increased by 25.7 [5]. Important News - A ship was attacked off the southwest coast of Yemen on Sunday. The attacked ship is a Liberian - flagged, Greek - owned bulk carrier "Maxic Seas", which was hit by a maritime drone and then took in water [5]. - Some EU auto - makers and governments are pushing for a tariff - reduction agreement with the US. The EU must reach a trade deal with Trump by July 9, or the tariffs on almost all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50% [6]. - The first - round indirect cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Qatar ended without results [7]. - CMA added an extra ship on the 11th and still has available space. MSK added an extra ship MAERSK FREEPORT (5920TEU) in week 31 [7][8]. - There is congestion at East China ports. MSC adjusted its port calls, either only calling at Shanghai or only at Ningbo [9]. - The loading rate of the European route was good in early July, and some shipowners' ships were fully booked [10]. - The OA Alliance suspended two sailings on the CES route, resulting in insufficient ship capacity and reduced cabin space [11]. Spot and Strategy - The central price of the spot in the second week of July is about 3200 (ranging from 2900 - 3600). Maersk's quote in the second week of July rose slightly from 2900 to 2960, and the departure price from Shanghai to Rotterdam on the third week was 2950, higher than the previous market expectation of a decline starting from the third week [13]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread long position. Due to the relatively low shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30 and the strong opening of Maersk's cabin in week 3 of July, combined with the expected congestion in Europe, the 08 contract may be stronger than the 10 contract [13].