Guo Mao Qi Huo
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纸浆数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:51
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - On July 8, 2025, the futures price of SP2601 was 5294, with a daily increase of 0.34% and a weekly increase of 1.50%. The spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5900, with no daily or weekly change. Other futures and spot prices also had corresponding changes, and the foreign - market quotes and import costs of some pulp varieties showed a trend of quantity increase and price decrease [1]. - The foreign - market quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70%, and its import cost was 5884, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68% [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In May 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 72.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75%, and that of broad - leaf pulp was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.84%. The pulp shipment volume to China in May increased by 3.3% month - on - month. Chilean Arauco Company announced the new July wood pulp foreign - market quotes, showing an increase in supply volume and a decrease in price [1]. - **Demand**: The output of major finished paper increased slightly this week, but the price of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 221.3 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.3%, showing a trend of inventory accumulation [2]. Strategy In the off - season of demand and with high inventory, pulp is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2].
贵金属数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the extension of the tariff suspension period by Trump and the expected meeting between US and Chinese officials have alleviated tariff concerns, improving market risk appetite, which is beneficial to silver and slightly negative to gold. However, due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and China's continuous gold - reserve increase, gold prices are unlikely to decline significantly. Thus, short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. It is recommended to allocate gold on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content a. Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **15 - point Prices of Domestic and Foreign Gold and Silver**: On July 8, 2025, the prices of London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, COMEX Gold, and other indicators all showed increases compared to July 7, with daily price increases ranging from 0.6% to 0.9%. For example, the price of London Gold Spot rose from $3308.77 per ounce on July 7 to $3336.45 per ounce on July 8, an increase of 0.8% [3]. - **Price Difference and Ratio Tracking**: The price differences and ratios of precious metals also changed. For instance, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 16.2% from July 7 to July 8, while the silver TD - SHFE active price difference decreased by 31.3% [3]. b. Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 7, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold increased by 3.58% compared to July 3, while the non - commercial net long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 2.06%. The holdings of gold ETF - SPDR and silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. c. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 8, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.48% compared to July 7, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.30%. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.19% from July 3 to July 7, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% [3]. d. Other Market Data - **Exchange Rates, Yields, and Indexes**: The dollar - to - RMB central parity rate increased by 0.04% from July 7 to July 8. The dollar index, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, VIX, and NYMEX crude oil prices also showed different degrees of change [4]. e. News and Market Analysis - **Tariff Policy News**: Trump extended the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period from July 9 to August 1 and announced new tariff policies for multiple countries starting from August 1 [4]. - **Trade Negotiation News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he expected to meet with Chinese officials in the next few weeks to promote trade and other topic negotiations [4].
碳酸锂数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:50
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases. However, the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Additionally, due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is relatively large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that as the purchasing pace slows down, the downward pressure on lithium carbonate futures prices will intensify [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,300 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 350 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li₂O: 5.5% - 6%) is 658 dollars, with a daily increase of 4 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 800 dollars, with a daily increase of 25 dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,355 dollars, with a daily increase of 27.5 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 6% - 7%) is 4,425 dollars, with a daily increase of 50 dollars; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O: 7% - 8%) is 5,260 dollars, with a daily increase of 60 dollars [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,905 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan/ton, with no change; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 980 yuan/ton, with an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 360 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1,510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1,790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 12,655 tons, with a decrease of 2,900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 61,988 yuan/ton, and the profit is 46 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 67,099 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6,586 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing. As a top lithium - producing country in Africa, Zimbabwe banned the export of lithium ore in 2022 to encourage miners to do more processing domestically [3]
黑色金属数据日报-20250709
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel spot market is stable, while the futures market shows some resistance. The "anti - involution" rebound in futures prices has limited ability to drive up spot prices, and the basis has been rapidly compressed. There is an increasing probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market's expected and confidence have improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The sentiment in the coking coal and coke spot market is temporarily stable. The futures market has warmed up the spot market sentiment, and there are signs of a coke price increase. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to a reduction in demand for the black industry rather than a contraction in supply [5][7]. - The short - term driving force for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - In the iron ore market, under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On July 8, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3083 yuan/ton (-0.10%), HC2601 at 3200 yuan/ton (-0.03%), I2601 at 707 yuan/ton (0.07%), J2601 at 1470.50 yuan/ton (0.44%), and JM2601 at 891 yuan/ton (0.62%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3063 yuan/ton (-0.13%), HC2510 at 3191 yuan/ton (-0.06%), I2509 at 733 yuan/ton (0.14%), J2509 at 1424.50 yuan/ton (0.14%), and JM2509 at 843.50 yuan/ton (0.84%) [2]. - The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and basis also had corresponding changes on July 8 [2]. Steel Industry - Steel spot is stable, and futures are slightly resistant. The "anti - involution" rebound has limited ability to drive up spot prices. There is a high probability of administrative production - limit interference in July - August. The market sentiment has improved, which may help the spot market bottom out before the peak season [4]. - The trading strategy is that the unilateral market turns to oscillation, and it is the time to enter the spot - futures positive arbitrage position as the basis approaches [4][10]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Spot sentiment is stable, with a rising voice for coke price increases. The futures market has driven the spot market to warm up. However, the overall fundamentals of carbon elements are weakening as coking coal supply recovers in July. The "anti - involution" policy may reduce demand for the black industry [5][7]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe and control risks on the unilateral market and pay attention to whether the previous high will be broken [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Industry - The short - term driving force is insufficient, and prices are mainly oscillating. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are currently acceptable, while the supply of silicomanganese is increasing, and the supply - demand structure is relatively loose [8]. - The trading strategy is to hold long - call options [10]. Iron Ore Industry - Under the "anti - involution" trading sentiment, the spot price has followed the rise and the basis has rebounded. It is not recommended to short the black market in the short term. Steel mills' profits remain high, and the daily average hot metal in July is expected to remain at a high level [9]. - The trading strategy is to mainly observe the market [9].
股指期权数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 13:20
CI + m 中 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIG 国贸期 权教据日报 | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 张肤帽(%) | | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2731. 5324 -0. 33 | | | 566. 60 | | 29. 32 | | | 沪深300 | 3965. 1746 -0. 43 | | | 2251.07 | | 131.14 | | | 中证1000 | 6327.139 0.24 | | | 2648. 35 | | 210. 48 | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交里 认沽期权 | 认购期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认洁期权 | 持仓里 | | | (万张) 成交里 | 成交里 | PCR | (万5k) | 持仓里 | 持创里 | PCR | | 上证50 | 2. 26 0. 71 | 1.54 | 0. ...
聚酯周报:芳烃需求转弱,聚酯减产在即-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of PTA is bearish as domestic production is at a historical high, and factors like benzene price weakness and profit margins limit PX production increase. The demand is also bearish as polyester downstream load is expected to decrease, and major polyester factories in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments plan to cut production in July. The PTA is in a stockpiling cycle, with port inventory increasing by 30,000 tons this week. The PTA basis has weakened rapidly, and its processing fee has shrunk. PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the macro - policy has a neutral impact [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Domestic PTA production is at a historical high, port inventory is decreasing, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to about $230 - 240, but benzene price weakness restricts PX production increase. The spread between PX and MX is about $90, which drives the recovery of PX load [3] - Demand: Polyester downstream load remains above 91% despite the expected reduction. Polyester factories' inventory is optimistic. Major production cuts are expected in short - fiber and bottle - chip segments in July, which will affect polyester load. As PTA price recovers, polyester's ability to absorb PTA price weakens, and weaving profit is compressed [3] - Inventory: PTA port inventory has accumulated, and it has entered a stockpiling cycle, with a 30,000 - ton increase in port inventory this week [3] - Basis: PTA basis has weakened rapidly. As PTA device increases with profit recovery and demand weakens, the market liquidity becomes looser [3] - Profit: The spread between PX and naphtha is $230, and the spread between PX and MX has shrunk. PTA processing fee remains at about 300 yuan and has contracted [3] - Valuation: PTA price is at a neutral - low level. As reforming devices gradually recover, aromatic supply increases, but gasoline profit is poor, and blending demand recovers [3] - Macro - policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs ranging from 60% - 70% and 10% - 20% on different countries starting August 1st [3][8] - Investment view: Oscillating, with no obvious driving force and expected to be mainly bearish [3] - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see [3] 2. Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - Policy: Trump plans to impose tariffs; the "Big and Beautiful Act" supports oil, gas, and coal production and restricts wind and solar energy; OPEC + is discussing an 81,100 - barrel - per - day production increase in August [8] - Gasoline: There are still concerns about the gasoline peak season. EIA data shows that the total inventory is 150,000 barrels, approaching 230 million barrels. Refinery operating rate has exceeded 94%, increasing gasoline production from 9 million barrels to 9.7 million barrels. North American refinery load is rising, and gasoline cracking profit shows a seasonal upward trend [23] 3. Aromatic Fundamentals Overview - MX: North American reforming device profit margin remains unchanged. The demand for MX in Asia is strong due to PX demand. Currently, tariffs hinder MX cross - regional arbitrage, but it is still marginally feasible. Asian spot MX supply is sufficient, and domestic mainstream reforming and aromatic extraction device productivity is decreasing [37][50][57] - PX: It is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations. After the listing of PX futures, its pricing is closely linked to futures [49][56] - PTA: Due to large domestic production capacity, the PTA processing interval has long been maintained below 500 yuan. With the launch of new devices and capacity, the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used [49][56] - Short - fiber and bottle - chip: They are in the capacity launch cycle. Overseas demand is an important variable, and the "Belt and Road" initiative provides new export opportunities [49][56] 4. Polyester Fundamentals Overview - Ethylene glycol: Coal - price decline expands coal - based ethylene glycol profit. There will be a large amount of ethylene glycol arriving at ports later. Polyester production and sales are weakening, and it is entering the maintenance cycle [81] - Gasoline: Gasoline profit is recovering, and the load of major refineries is increasing [82] - Polyester: Downstream demand is weakening, and bottle - chip and short - fiber are in the maintenance period. Raw material prices are rising, and terminal demand is weakening [90][97]
日度策略参考-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:41
Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]
聚酯数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:03
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 2024- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 01 01 01 05 09 05 09 05 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 -FDY现金流 =DTY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 ...
瓶片短纤数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 08:03
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 一国贸易货 险,入市需谨慎。 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 2025/7/8 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/4 | 2025/7/7 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4835 | 4810 | (25.00) | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4365 | 4345 | (20. 00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤跌32至6518。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4710 | 4710 | 0.00 | 短纤生产企业价格商谈为主,贸易商价格下跌, | | MEG收盘价 | 4277 | 4279 | 2. 00 | 下游按需采买,市场成交温吞。1.56dtex*38mm | | | | | | 半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市场价格在6550- | | 1.4D直纺 ...
宏观金融数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:42
Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.47 with a 4.37bp increase, GC001 at 1.49 with a 5.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.51 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 1.80bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.40bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.47 with a 0.15bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.10bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3315 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Tuesday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3965, down 0.43%; the SSE 50 at 2732, down 0.33%; the CSI 500 at 5900, down 0.19%; and the CSI 1000 at 6327, up 0.24% [5] - The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures (IF) was 67470, down 46.5, and the open interest was 243305, down 8.5; for the SSE 50 futures (IH), the trading volume was 32788, down 50.5, and the open interest was 85845, down 12.2; for the CSI 500 futures (IC), the trading volume was 55201, down 44.4, and the open interest was 220939, down 6.6; for the CSI 1000 futures (IM), the trading volume was 136314, down 45.5, and the open interest was 320782, down 8.7 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets was 12087 billion yuan, a decrease of 2199 billion yuan from last Friday. Most industry sectors rose, with the power, grid equipment, household light industry, power supply equipment, diversified finance, real estate development, packaging materials, and public utility sectors leading the gains, while the biological products and medical service sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Stock Index Outlook - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, there is resistance for the stock index to break through further and it may show a volatile pattern [6] - In the long term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real - estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is yet to be finalized, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity easing expectations and changes in the geopolitical situation will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.88%, 8.92%, 5.87%, and 4.58% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 21.78%, 7.93%, 4.25%, and 1.92% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 23.17%, 15.23%, 12.77%, and 10.37% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 31.43%, 20.58%, 16.80%, and 14.00% respectively [7]