Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, there was a divergence in the non - ferrous metals market. Shanghai copper and zinc rose slightly after surging and then falling back, while alumina and tin fell by over 6% and 5% respectively, and aluminum, lead, and nickel fell by 0.4 - 1.4%. The domestic market was closed on Monday this week due to the Dragon Boat Festival, and in the overseas market, the COMEX copper price soared as the market expected higher costs for US copper imports due to the repeated tariff war [9]. - For copper, short - term attention should be paid to the follow - up development of US tariff policies, and the mid - term upward space of Shanghai copper depends on the position - increasing strength above 78,000 [10]. - For aluminum, the decline in alumina restricts the rebound of aluminum prices, while the continuous decline in SHFE and LME aluminum inventories supports the price, and Shanghai aluminum is currently oscillating between 19,700 - 20,400 [21]. - For zinc and lead, after the holiday, attention should be paid to the positive impact of the deep BACK structure and spot premium on the zinc market during continuous inventory reduction, and the lead market should note the lead - zinc linkage despite its continued weakness [26]. - For nickel and tin, nickel fell last week, driving stainless steel down, and the tin market tumbled by over 5% due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and Africa. News of the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining on Monday had a certain positive impact on the LME tin price [35]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Non - Ferrous Futures Price Weekly Statistics - **Domestic Non - Ferrous Futures Prices**: Shanghai copper rose 0.31% to 77,600 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.42% to 20,070 yuan/ton, alumina dropped 6.53% to 2,962 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc increased 0.05% to 22,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead decreased 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, Shanghai nickel fell 1.30% to 121,100 yuan/ton, stainless steel dropped 1.48% to 12,685 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin decreased 5.45% to 250,300 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME and COMEX Non - Ferrous Futures Prices**: LME copper fell 1.17% to 9,498 dollars/ton, COMEX copper dropped 3.35% to 4.7020 dollars/pound, LME aluminum decreased 0.79% to 2,444 dollars/ton, LME zinc fell 3.02% to 2,620 dollars/ton, LME lead decreased 1.66% to 1,958 dollars/ton, LME nickel dropped 2.29% to 15,237 dollars/ton, and LME tin decreased 7.21% to 30,328 dollars/ton [2]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Non - Ferrous Inventories**: SHFE copper inventory increased 7.22% to 105,791 tons, SHFE aluminum inventory decreased 11.93% to 124,433 tons, SHFE zinc inventory decreased 4.00% to 42,310 tons, SHFE lead inventory decreased 3.98% to 46,500 tons, SHFE nickel inventory increased 0.45% to 27,075 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased 4.00% to 8,107 tons [2]. - **LME and COMEX Non - Ferrous Inventories**: LME copper inventory decreased 10.00% to 149,875 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased 3.45% to 180,629 short tons, LME aluminum inventory decreased 3.72% to 372,525 tons, LME zinc inventory decreased 10.93% to 139,150 tons, LME lead inventory decreased 3.26% to 286,175 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased 0.76% to 199,380 tons, and LME tin inventory increased 0.56% to 2,680 tons [3]. - **Domestic Spot Premiums**: The Shanghai copper spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton, the Shanghai aluminum spot premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton, the Shanghai zinc spot premium remained unchanged at 165 yuan/ton, the Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, the Shanghai nickel spot premium increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 1500 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai tin spot premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Foreign Spot Premiums**: The LME copper (0 - 3) spot premium increased by 18.94 dollars/ton to 50.08 dollars/ton, the LME aluminum (0 - 3) spot premium increased by 0.85 dollars/ton to - 5.75 dollars/ton, the LME zinc (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 1.88 dollars/ton to - 23.43 dollars/ton, the LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 6.61 dollars/ton to - 24.26 dollars/ton, the LME nickel (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 7.28 dollars/ton to - 195.62 dollars/ton, and the LME tin (0 - 3) spot premium increased by 57 dollars/ton to - 78 dollars/ton [7]. - **COMEX Copper Fund Net Positions**: The COMEX copper fund net position increased by 7.33% to 22,581 [8]. 2. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The offshore RMB exchange rate increased by 0.0343 to 7.2065, the US dollar index increased by 0.3162 to 99.4393, the US dollar against the Japanese yen increased by 1.4920 to 144.0615, and the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.1000 to 4.4100 [9]. 3. Analysis and Outlook - **Copper**: Last week, Shanghai copper surged and then fell back. Buying enthusiasm was insufficient above 78,000. The SHFE inventory increased slightly, and the LME inventory continued to decline. The LME three - month forward price premium over the spot price rose from 30 dollars to over 50 dollars. The COMEX copper price soared due to expectations of higher US copper import costs. Short - term attention should be paid to US tariff policies, and the mid - term upward space of Shanghai copper depends on the position - increasing strength above 78,000 [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: This week, alumina prices dropped significantly as market speculation cooled. The domestic bauxite port inventory reached a new high. The decline in alumina restricted the rebound of aluminum prices, while the continuous decline in SHFE and LME aluminum inventories supported the price. Shanghai aluminum is oscillating between 19,700 - 20,400 [21]. - **Zinc and Lead**: Last Tuesday, Shanghai zinc rebounded rapidly but the rebound was not sustainable. It is currently oscillating between 22,000 - 22,700. Shanghai lead oscillated downward, hitting a new closing low since April 10. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the positive impact on zinc during continuous inventory reduction, and the lead market should note the lead - zinc linkage [26]. - **Nickel and Tin**: Last week, nickel fell, driving stainless steel down. The tin market tumbled by over 5% due to expected resumptions of production. News of the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal mining had a positive impact on the LME tin price [35].

Macro and Industry - The first batch of technology-themed funds has revealed their adjustment trends, with fund companies like Yongying, Zhongou, and Changcheng continuing to increase their positions in the AI industry chain in the first quarter, focusing heavily on information technology and manufacturing sectors [3] - Fund managers predict that the commercialization breakthrough of AI agents is accelerating, while the continuous iteration of large models is underestimated, and the mass production and short-term growth capabilities of humanoid robots are overestimated [3] Capital Markets - A-shares rebounded from a low point, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.15% at 3267.66 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw slight declines of 0.27% and 0.13% respectively. The banking sector saw collective gains, and consumer stocks remained active [4] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.23% to 21466.27 points, marking six consecutive days of gains, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.67% [4] - The US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 40368.96 points, and the S&P 500 down 0.17% at 5396.63 points. Notably, Boeing and Caterpillar led the declines in the Dow [5] Commodity Market - The IEA's monthly report has lowered the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 730,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 1,030,000 barrels per day, with further slowdown expected in 2026 [7] - Domestic commodity futures saw most contracts decline in the night session, with energy and chemical products generally down, while black metals showed mixed results [8] - The precious metals market saw gold and silver prices rise, with gold reaching a high of 766.74, up 0.73%, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts [10][11] Specific Sectors - In the black metal sector, rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showed slight declines, with current steel demand remaining weak due to ongoing contraction in the real estate sector [11] - The agricultural products market saw fluctuations, with soybean meal prices declining while palm oil prices rebounded due to stable export tax rates [11] - The oil market continued to experience sideways movement, with geopolitical and fundamental factors being closely monitored [12]