Group 1 - Legendary investor Ray Dalio warns that the world is on the brink of a "capital war" due to escalating geopolitical tensions and high market volatility [1][5] - Dalio defines "capital war" as the weaponization of capital through trade embargoes, cutting off market access, or using debt ownership as leverage [1][5] - Steven Major, a prominent bond analyst, suggests that the Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh's leadership, may implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market currently anticipates, potentially four to five cuts instead of two [1][5] Group 2 - Gold prices rebounded significantly, trading around 5070, supported by buying interest and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials that reignited rate cut expectations [7] - The Australian dollar experienced a strong rebound, trading at approximately 0.7030, primarily due to a 25 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia and improved economic growth and inflation forecasts [8] - The USD/CAD pair saw a slight decline, trading around 1.3640, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index amid multiple negative factors [9]

作者 |第一财经 李隽 2月4日上午，香港上市的科技股继续遭遇利空，上午恒生科技指数继续跌2.19%，中午报收5347点，截 至下午收盘跌逾1.8%；恒生指数下跌0.41%，中午报收26725点，半天成交1514亿港元，截至收盘则小 幅翻红，涨0.05%。 2026.02.04 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约2分钟 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤向第一财经分析，近日科技股消息较多，2月3日受税收增加传闻影响，2月4 日腾讯元宝被接入微信限制也受到市场关注，科技股市场气氛依然一般，传统经济板块表现可能更为理 想，如果美汇指数走弱，对传统经济板块的帮助可能较科技股更为明显。汇丰等国际银行股在当前环球 市场处于历史高点，对其财富管理等业务的帮助较大。 （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 博大资本国际行政总裁温天纳则称，恒生科技指数持续调整，主要受税收传言与资金面因素共同影响。 当前资金面呈现"金融强、科技弱"格局，资金更青睐高股息金融及其他价值股；外资受美联储政策不确 定性影响，避险情绪升温，资金从高弹性科技转向防御金融，加剧板块分化，短期该格局或延续。不过 中长期来看，人工智能商业化加速叠加南向资金" ...

Consumption Trends in China - Overall retail sales and consumption in China are currently weak, but there are interesting trends emerging, particularly related to aging demographics [1] - The demographic shift shows that individuals in their 60s, who were previously in their 40s and 50s, are now spending more on themselves, although they are not big spenders [2][3] Silver Spenders - The "silver spenders" demographic is characterized by older individuals who have accumulated significant cash reserves but tend to save rather than spend [3] - This group is not heavily investing in property but is more inclined to spend on healthcare services, leisure travel, and elderly care [4][5] Property Market Insights - There is an oversupply of older properties in China, but demand may shift towards new and nicer apartments [5] - A notable increase of 20% in mainland Chinese buyers entering the Hong Kong property market has been observed, indicating a potential recovery [6] Hong Kong Property Market - The Hong Kong property market is showing signs of recovery, even without significant easing of interest rates, which typically align with the Federal Reserve [7][8] - Local residents are also sitting on large cash reserves, leading to increased interest in property investments [8][9] Price Forecasts - Analysts predict a 5% increase in residential property prices in Hong Kong, with potential for initial price increases to exceed forecasts as market recovery gains momentum [10][11][12]

2026.02. 04 本文字数：1284，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李隽 2月4日上午，香港上市的科技股继续遭遇利空，上午恒生科技指数继续跌2.19%，中午报收5347点，截至下午收盘跌逾1.8%；恒生指数下跌0.41%， 中午报收26725点，半天成交1514亿港元，截至收盘则小幅翻红，涨0.05%。 （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 推荐阅读 李亚鹏，一夜卖了1.6亿元茶 光大证券国际策略师伍礼贤向第一财经分析，近日科技股消息较多，2月3日受税收增加传闻影响，2月4日腾讯元宝被接入微信限制也受到市场关注，科 技股市场气氛依然一般，传统经济板块表现可能更为理想，如果美汇指数走弱，对传统经济板块的帮助可能较科技股更为明显。汇丰等国际银行股在当 前环球市场处于历史高点，对其财富管理等业务的帮助较大。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭认为，科技股昨日与今日大跌的逻辑有所不同，昨日源于对税务的忧虑，今日则更多受美股估值压力延伸至港股影响。美国人 工智能初创公司推出针对法律服务的AI应用，市场担忧应用可替代市面上部分法律服务软件及SaaS（软件即服务），港股今日跌幅较大的主要为金山 软件、微盟 ...

过去4个月港股呈现分化行情。 2月4日上午，香港上市的科技股继续遭遇利空，上午恒生科技指数继续跌2.19%，中午报收5347点，截 至发稿跌逾1.6%，恒生指数下跌0.41%，报收26725点，半天成交1514亿港元；截至发稿则小幅翻红。 虽然税收增加的消息并不属实，不过2月4日腾讯控股（00700.HK）等依然下跌并一度创出4个月调整新 低558港元；同日汇丰控股（00005.HK）、渣打集团（02888.HK）等海外金融股一度创出新高，港股呈 现出"金融强、科技弱"的特征。 红蚁资本投资总监李泽铭认为，科技股昨日与今日大跌的逻辑有所不同，昨日源于对税务的忧虑，今日 则更多受美股估值压力延伸至港股影响。美国人工智能初创公司推出针对法律服务的AI应用，市场担 忧应用可替代市面上部分法律服务软件及SaaS（软件即服务），港股今日跌幅较大的主要为金山软件、 微盟等。 相关媒体报道称，AI明星公司Anthropic发布的一款法律工作流插件，该插件能够处理合同审查、合规 检查、文档生成等企业法务，引发了对相关软件公司被替代的担忧，全球软件股大跌，港股方面，2月4 日金山软件（03888.HK）最大跌幅一度接近7%，微 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In Q4 2025, overseas bond funds mainly increased their positions in MBS (+2.6pp) and treasury bonds (+2.4pp), reduced derivatives (-5.3pp), and slightly increased corporate bonds. However, they were still significantly underweight in treasury bonds compared to the benchmark index. The funds slightly extended the duration in Q4 2025 [3]. - In the credit - bond portfolio, in Q4 2025, funds mainly increased their positions in the communications (+1.1pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.5pp) sectors, and reduced their positions in the banking (-0.7pp) and energy (-0.3pp) sectors. The overall credit quality of the portfolio slightly improved as funds mainly reduced their positions in BBB - rated bonds and increased their positions in AA - rated bonds [2][3]. - From an individual bond perspective, the companies that funds increased the most in Q4 last year included internet technology companies such as Meta and Amazon. In absolute terms, the companies that funds were overweight compared to the benchmark index were concentrated in sectors like banking, automotive, and tobacco, and they also maintained an overweight position in sectors such as TMT and health insurance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Analysis Sample - The report selected US actively managed funds with a large asset management scale and timely data disclosure as observation samples, including comprehensive investment - grade funds and pure corporate - bond funds. Comprehensive funds were used as samples for analyzing the large - asset allocation of funds, and all sample funds were used for analyzing the credit - bond portfolio [3]. 3.2 Asset Allocation - As of Q4 2025, overseas bond funds mainly increased their positions in MBS (+2.6pp), treasury bonds (+2.4pp), and slightly increased corporate bonds compared to Q3, while reducing derivatives (-5.3pp). However, they were still significantly underweight in treasury bonds compared to the benchmark index [3]. - In Q4 last year, the funds slightly extended the duration [3]. 3.3 Credit - Bond Portfolio - **Industry Allocation**: In Q4 2025, funds mainly increased their positions in the communications (+1.1pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.5pp) sectors, and reduced their positions in the banking (-0.7pp) and energy (-0.3pp) sectors. The banking sector still had a relatively high proportion in credit bonds, accounting for 26% as of Q4 2025 [3]. - **Comparison with the Benchmark Index**: Compared with the previous quarter, funds were overweight in the communications (+0.3pp) and cyclical consumption (+0.1pp) sectors and underweight in the technology (-0.2pp), banking (-0.1pp), and power (-0.1pp) sectors. Compared with Q4 2024, in 2025, funds were mainly overweight in the technology (+0.4pp), cyclical consumption (+0.4pp), communications (+0.3pp), and insurance (+0.2pp) sectors and underweight in the banking (-0.5pp) and power (-0.2pp) sectors [3]. - **Rating Allocation**: Funds mainly reduced their positions in BBB - rated bonds and increased their positions in AA - rated bonds, with the credit quality of the portfolio slightly improving. In the industry distribution, funds maintained a BBB - rated - based allocation in most industries but carried out credit downgrades in the communications, cyclical consumption, and public - utility sectors [2]. - **Individual Bond Analysis**: The companies that funds increased the most in Q4 last year included internet technology companies such as Meta and Amazon, possibly affected by new - bond supply. In absolute terms, the companies that funds were overweight compared to the benchmark index were concentrated in sectors such as banking (e.g., JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, UBS), automotive (e.g., Ford, General Motors, Hyundai), and tobacco; in addition, funds also maintained an overweight position in sectors such as TMT (e.g., Oracle, Meta, Broadcom) and health insurance, which were sectors with attractive valuations [2].

Group 1 - The Indian rupee has experienced its strongest rally in seven years, providing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with an opportunity to rebuild foreign exchange reserves, which may limit further appreciation of the rupee following the US-India trade agreement [1] - Barclays and Nomura predict that the RBI will utilize this rupee rebound to purchase US dollars, with Nomura forecasting the rupee to depreciate to 94 per dollar by May, while Barclays suggests a tactical short position on the rupee [1][2] - The RBI's foreign exchange strategy under Governor Sanjay Malhotra is seen as unpredictable, complicating the assessment of the current rupee rally [1] Group 2 - The RBI sold a significant amount of dollars last year, estimated by Nomura at a net sale of $49.5 billion, to support the rupee, yet the foreign exchange reserves have reached a record high of $709 billion due to a weaker dollar and rising gold prices [2] - The key observation point is the exchange rate level at which the RBI will purchase dollars to rebuild reserves, as the central bank has intervened in the market to buy rupees during recent low points [2] - Barclays recommends a tactical short position on the rupee, citing that the current rally is unsustainable, while MUFG suggests establishing a long position on the dollar/rupee in the medium term [2] Group 3 - The primary impact on the bond market will be transmitted through the foreign exchange market and the RBI's intervention strategy, with short-term capital inflows providing the RBI an opportunity to rebuild reserves and inject liquidity into the rupee [3]

汇丰的Song Jin Lee在一份报告中称，增加对AI行业的投资所带来的预期收益，可能会惠及股票投资 者，而非信用债投资者。他表示，AI应用的普及可能会推高AI公司的股价，但对信用债资产的影响可 能不大。"债权人更容易受到K型经济、AI相关的不确定性以及新兴杠杆周期带来的下行风险影响。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - A total of 78 stocks reached a 52-week high as of February 3, with notable performers including Asia Pacific Financial Investments (08193) at 57.14%, Chao Wei Holdings (08059) at 36.00%, and Asia Backup (08290) at 33.33% [1] - The closing prices for the top three stocks that reached new highs were 0.550, 0.052, and 0.024 respectively, with their highest prices being 0.550, 0.068, and 0.036 [1] - Other significant stocks that reached new highs include Huameilele (08429) with a high rate of 20.37% and Haode Holdings (08149) at 17.65% [1] Group 2 - The report also lists stocks that reached 52-week lows, with the worst performer being Gaodi Holdings (01676) at -10.00%, followed by Huajian Medical (01931) at -9.29% and Electronic Trading Group (08036) at -9.09% [3] - The closing prices for the stocks that reached new lows include 0.340, 1.280, and 0.021 respectively, with their lowest prices being 0.315, 1.270, and 0.020 [3] - Other notable stocks that reached new lows include Controllon (01912) at -8.93% and Cool Link (08491) at -8.11% [3]

智通财经APP获悉，汇丰银行策略师表示，在围绕人工智能(AI)的乐观情绪推动收益率溢价降至数十年来最低水平之后，信贷投资者应当防范与"AI亢奋"相 关的潜在下行风险。汇丰策略师Song Jin Lee和Tom Russell在一份报告中写道："在美国，近期美国GDP增长中相当一部分与AI相关——无论是通过投资支出 直接推动，还是通过AI相关股票带来的财富效应间接推动。任何令人失望的情况，都可能通过多个渠道在信贷市场中产生回响。" 在当前利差水平下，指出信贷风险偏向并非只有汇丰一家。高盛集团资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann本周在接受采访时表示，"信贷是最薄弱 的一环"，投资者面临与美元和日元相关的潜在"利差套利回撤风险"。他目前对信贷持低配立场，但基于盈利前景对股票持超配观点。 汇丰敦促投资者考虑多元化策略，与美国科技公司债券保持一定距离，并指出欧元区信贷中的部分板块对AI周期的敞口较小。策略师认为，美国经济和AI 进一步上行所带来的大部分收益将归于股票持有人，而非债权人。 报告还称，即便AI出现上行意外，美国私募信贷仍对高收益软件公司存在显著敞口，而这些公司的商业模式可能 ...