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11月12日【輪證短評】地平線機械人、南方航空、協鑫科技、中國中免
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-13 03:38
Group 1: Horizon Robotics (09660) - Horizon Robotics has experienced a significant decline, with a recent high of 11.32 HKD and a low of 8.03 HKD, closing at 8.33 HKD today. Investors remain optimistic about the stock's potential to break through 11.32 HKD [1] - Currently, there are no related warrants available in the market, only two call options with substantial out-of-the-money margins. Investors may need to wait for more closely priced products to be issued [1] - If investors are optimistic about the stock, they should consider monitoring the stock itself rather than relying on warrants, which may decline significantly if the stock does not rise or remains stagnant [1] Group 2: China Southern Airlines (01055) - China Southern Airlines has shown a strong upward trend, but trading volume has started to weaken, indicating potential fatigue in the stock's performance [2] - Investors are still optimistic, believing the stock could reach 6 HKD or even 6.3 HKD, although the immediate resistance level is around 5.43 HKD [2] - There are limited warrant products available for this stock, with one at an exercise price of 4.88 HKD and another upcoming at 6.66 HKD, making investor choices quite limited [4] Group 3: GCL-Poly Energy (03800) - GCL-Poly Energy's stock price has not performed well, dropping to a low of 1.25 HKD and closing at 1.32 HKD, with significant trading volume during the decline [4] - Despite the downturn, investors remain confident that the stock could rebound above 1.5 HKD, needing to first break the resistance at 1.45 HKD [4] - There are several warrant options available, with some having favorable terms, including three products expiring in March with exercise prices around 1.68 HKD to 1.69 HKD [7] Group 4: China Duty Free Group (01880) - China Duty Free Group's stock has shown volatility, recently reaching a high before closing at 78.9 HKD, with some investors still seeing potential for upward movement [8] - There are multiple warrant options available at exercise prices around 79 HKD and 80 HKD, with one product showing a leverage advantage of 3.5 times and a low implied volatility of 64.8% [8] - The market for warrants related to this stock is competitive, with various products available, indicating a healthy interest from issuers despite the stock being less frequently mentioned [8]
11月7日【港股Podcast】恆指、華虹半導體 、中海油 、嗶哩嗶哩、中國移動 、贛鋒鋰業
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-09 20:29
Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight decline, closing at 26,241 points, which is a minor drop of less than 1% after a significant rise the previous day [1][2] - Technical signals indicate a majority "sell" signal, with support around 25,700 points and resistance at approximately 26,700 points, suggesting a potential trading range of about 1,000 points [2] - Investors are advised to choose safer products with recovery prices further from the current levels, such as 25,600 or 25,500 for bullish options, and above 26,700 for bearish options [2] Group 2 - Semiconductor company Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347.HK) showed a slight price drop, closing at 79.45 HKD, with support at around 73 HKD and resistance at 87.5 HKD [6] - Technical signals for Hua Hong indicate a slight majority of "buy" signals, with 8 buy signals compared to 6 sell signals [6][10] - CNOOC (00883.HK) is experiencing an upward trend, closing at 21.18 HKD, with resistance at 21.6 HKD and potential for further gains if it breaks this level [12][16] Group 3 - Bilibili (09626.HK) is showing weak performance, closing at 216 HKD, with potential further declines to 205 HKD if the downward trend continues [18] - China Mobile (00941.HK) is performing well, closing at 87.15 HKD, close to the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 88.1 HKD [19][22] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) closed at 52.7 HKD, near the upper Bollinger Band, with resistance at 55.9 HKD and a prevailing "sell" signal in the market [24][27]
11月3日【輪證短評】小鵬汽車、金沙中國、港交所、工商銀行
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 20:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the performance and investment opportunities related to various stocks, particularly focusing on options and warrants associated with these stocks [3][4][10] - The first stock analyzed is XPeng Motors (09868), which has shown a price increase, closing at 92 HKD, with potential resistance levels at 95.1 HKD and 99.7 HKD [3][4] - The article highlights four warrant products with exercise prices between 60 HKD and 61 HKD, noting their leverage ratios ranging from 3.3x to 3.5x, making them suitable for investors [4][5] Group 2 - The second stock discussed is Sands China (01928), which experienced a decline, closing at 19.95 HKD, but with increased trading volume, prompting interest in call options [10][11] - There is limited choice for January expiration products, leading to a recommendation for looking at April expiration products, which offer various types of options with leverage around 4x [11][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of comparing product terms, as even slight differences in leverage and implied volatility can significantly impact investment decisions [12][13] Group 3 - The third stock is Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388), which saw a price increase to 428.8 HKD, with a suggested support level at 417 HKD [16][17] - The article recommends selecting bull certificates with a redemption price below 412 HKD for safety, as they are less likely to be triggered compared to those closer to the current price [17][18] - It notes that the premium differences among these products can be significant, urging investors to carefully evaluate product terms [18] Group 4 - The fourth stock analyzed is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398), which has shown a price increase to 6.17 HKD, with a resistance level at 6.2 HKD [21][22] - There are three put options available for January expiration, all being out-of-the-money, with exercise prices around 5.22 HKD [22][23] - The article stresses that while there are options available, none have a clear advantage, and investors should consider the bid-ask spread and the ability of these put options to respond to declines in the underlying stock [23]
11月4日【輪證短評】贛鋒鋰業、招商銀行、洛陽鉬業、華虹半導體
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-04 19:16
Group 1: Ganfeng Lithium (01772) - Ganfeng Lithium's stock price has been declining for three consecutive days, currently at 47.5 HKD, close to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands [1] - Investors speculate that the stock may drop further to around 41 HKD, with a support level at approximately 43.5 HKD; if it breaks this level, it could fall to about 37.6 HKD [1] - Some investors are optimistic about its future performance and are considering purchasing relatively priced call options [1] Group 2: China Merchants Bank (03968) - China Merchants Bank's stock has risen for three consecutive days, currently at 50.9 HKD, with increased trading volume [4] - There are options available with a strike price of 59 HKD, which is over 10% out of the money; it may take time for the stock to reach this level [4][5] - The available products show significant differences in leverage, with some having a leverage of 8.2 times and others up to 11 times [5][6] Group 3: Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price has dropped for three days, currently at 15.45 HKD, with expectations of further decline [7] - Investors are advised to wait for the stock to reach a support level of around 14.5 HKD before considering buying [7] - There are options available with strike prices around 14.88 HKD, with leverage ranging from 3.3 to 3.6 times [7][8] Group 4: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock price has slightly decreased to 75.8 HKD, with a bearish outlook from investors [9] - There are options available with strike prices closer to the current market price, around 69 to 70 HKD, with leverage of approximately 2.3 times [10] - Investors are cautioned against options with strike prices too far from the current price, as they may not track the stock effectively [10]
10月31日【輪證短評】小米集團、複星醫藥、港鐵、泡泡瑪特
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-03 03:11
Group 1: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock price has been declining, dropping from a high of 59.9 HKD to the current 43.2 HKD, with potential further declines to 38 HKD or 35 HKD [3] - The short-term support level is at 41.3 HKD; if breached, the next support level is at 38.2 HKD [3] - Technical signals indicate a "buy" signal from the 100-day moving average [3] Group 2: FOSUN Pharma (2196) - FOSUN Pharma's stock price has rebounded to 23.82 HKD after previously nearing a bottom, with increased trading volume [8] - Investors are cautious, with some suggesting to exit around 25 HKD, indicating mixed sentiment on future price movements [8] - Currently, there are no put options available for FOSUN Pharma, limiting short-selling opportunities [9] Group 3: MTR Corporation (00066) - MTR's stock has risen from a low of 26.08 HKD to a high of 28.62 HKD, currently trading at 28.5 HKD, showing a strong upward trend [12] - There are five options available with strike prices around 30 HKD, with significant differences in leverage, ranging from 10.5 to 13.2 times [12][13] - The high-leverage product has lower implied volatility and premium, making it more attractive [12] Group 4: Pop Mart (09992) - Pop Mart's stock has been on a downward trend, recently hitting a low of 220.2 HKD, with a current closing price of 221.6 HKD [16] - Investors have differing opinions on its future, with some predicting a drop to 211 HKD while others anticipate a rebound to 230 HKD [16] - Options with strike prices close to the current stock price are limited, with some products having strike prices around 299 HKD, which are not suitable for current trading [17][18]
平保突破關鍵位,下個目標在哪?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-30 21:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Ping An Insurance (02318) has attracted market attention, with its stock price rising by 2.14% to HKD 57.35, indicating significant capital inflow [1] Technical Analysis - The current trend of Ping An shows a complex pattern of "volume and price rising but indicators diverging." The stock price has successfully broken through the dual resistance of MA10 (HKD 55.65) and MA30 (HKD 54.14), with short-term moving averages in a bullish arrangement [1] - However, technical indicators are signaling a "sell," creating a notable divergence from the price trend. The RSI has risen to 68, nearing the overbought threshold, while the momentum oscillators suggest a "sell" warning in conjunction with the Bollinger Bands [1] - Key support levels are at HKD 55.5 (Support 1) and HKD 53.9 (Support 2), while resistance levels are at HKD 60.4 (Resistance 1) and HKD 62.5 (Resistance 2) [1] Derivative Products Performance - In the derivatives market, Ping An's warrants and bull/bear certificates have shown exceptional performance. For instance, UBS bull certificate 58105 surged by 50% within two days, and HSBC bull certificate 57987 increased by 49% [3] - Call options such as Bank of China call certificate 17070 rose by 34%, and UBS call certificate 21408 increased by 25%, significantly outperforming the underlying stock's 3.93% gain [3] Investment Opportunities - For bullish investors, Bank of China call certificate 18122 and UBS call certificate 18154 offer leverage of 12.5 times and 13.8 times, respectively, with a strike price set at HKD 67.23 and relatively low premiums [6] - For risk-averse investors, UBS bull certificate 61834 and JPMorgan bull certificate 59648 provide approximately 7.7 times leverage, with a recovery price around HKD 50.5, maintaining about a 13% safety margin from the current price [6] Bearish Options - Investors with a bearish outlook may consider HSBC put certificate 19792 and Morgan Stanley put certificate 20419, which offer favorable leverage and implied volatility [8] - Bear certificates such as JPMorgan bear certificate 54282 and UBS bear certificate 52561 provide around 8 times leverage, with recovery prices set at HKD 64.5 and HKD 65, respectively, maintaining about a 10% buffer from the current price [8]
10月28日【窩輪短評】小米集團、江西銅業、渣打集團、國泰航空
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-29 03:46
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The analysis focuses on the performance and potential investment opportunities related to specific stocks, particularly Xiaomi, Jiangxi Copper, Standard Chartered, and Cathay Pacific, along with their corresponding financial products. Group 1: Xiaomi Group (01810) - Xiaomi's stock has seen a significant decline from a high of 59.9 HKD to a current price of 44.9 HKD, a drop of 15 HKD [1] - Technical signals currently indicate a "strong buy" for Xiaomi, suggesting a slight bullish outlook despite the recent downturn [1] - There are limited options for call products at the current price level, with some having exercise prices around 37 HKD and leverage between 2.1x to 2.6x [1] - If the stock price drops below 42.8 HKD, it may reach 38.2 HKD, making products with an exercise price of 37.15 HKD potentially attractive [2] - The market has few suitable out-of-the-money products, with exercise prices starting at 52 HKD, indicating a more than 10% out-of-the-money margin [3] Group 2: Jiangxi Copper (00358) - Jiangxi Copper's stock price closed at 32.82 HKD, slightly below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, indicating mixed market sentiment [6] - There are four put options available with exercise prices ranging from 28.88 HKD to 20 HKD, with varying leverage and implied volatility [7] - A comparison of put options shows that the 28.88 HKD exercise price has better leverage and implied volatility than the 23.35 HKD option, highlighting the importance of product comparison [7] Group 3: Standard Chartered (02888) - Standard Chartered's stock price increased to 153 HKD, with investors speculating whether it will challenge the previous high of 158.5 HKD [9] - There are currently limited suitable put options available for Standard Chartered, indicating a lack of investment products for bearish strategies [9] Group 4: Cathay Pacific (00293) - Cathay Pacific's stock has shown upward movement, closing at 11.26 HKD and breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [12] - There are limited options for call products, with only two available that have an exercise price of around 13 HKD and leverage of approximately 9.3x [13][14] - Investors are advised to compare the available products carefully, as the selection is currently limited, and the stock has already experienced a price increase [14]
10月24日【窩輪短評】中芯國際、蔚來汽車、思摩爾國際、阿里巴巴
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-25 20:21
Group 1: Company Analysis - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) is currently trading at 80 HKD, positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a relatively positive performance [2] - Investors have shown interest in a specific bull certificate with a redemption price around 71.5 HKD, which is considered reasonable given the current support level of 72.6 HKD [2][3] - The street liquidity for this product has reached 100%, meaning all shares are held by investors, which limits the issuer's ability to maintain price control [3][4] Group 2: Product Selection - It is advisable to avoid high street liquidity products as they can lead to price volatility and difficulty in pricing by the issuer [4][5] - For SMIC, there are no near-term products available, but options expiring in June or July next year are more plentiful, with actual leverage ranging from 2.7x to 3.3x [5] - The implied volatility for these products varies significantly, with some at 57.1% and others as high as 65.2%, indicating a need for careful comparison of product terms [5] Group 3: NIO Inc. Analysis - NIO's stock price has shown mixed market sentiment, with some investors optimistic about a rebound while others foresee a continued downtrend [10][11] - There are currently seven put options available for NIO, all of which are out-of-the-money, with strike prices ranging from 27.66 HKD to 47.08 HKD [10][11] - The actual leverage for put options in the 40-47 HKD range is not attractive, suggesting investors may need to wait for new products to be introduced [11] Group 4: Product Comparison for NIO - There are some call options expiring between February and March next year with strike prices around 60-61 HKD, which align well with NIO's resistance level of 57.4 HKD [12] - Among these call options, some offer actual leverage up to 3.6x, with implied volatility around 80.5% [12] Group 5: Smoore International Analysis - Smoore International's stock has declined significantly, with a recent low of 13.78 HKD, but some investors believe it may be at a level worth monitoring for potential recovery [16][17] - The current short-term support level is at 13.4 HKD, and if it breaks this level, it may drop to 12 HKD, which is seen as a critical price point [16][17] Group 6: Product Availability for Smoore - There are limited options for call certificates, with most having strike prices significantly above the current market price, making them less attractive [17] - The ideal strike price for new products would be closer to 17-18 HKD, but current offerings are mostly above 20 HKD [17] Group 7: Alibaba Group Analysis - Alibaba's stock is currently facing resistance at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, closing at 168.3 HKD, with a need to break through 177.4 HKD to reach higher levels [20][21] - There are numerous product options available for Alibaba, particularly those with strike prices around 180-182 HKD, offering actual leverage of approximately 4.9x [21][22] - Investors are encouraged to compare products carefully, as there are significant differences in implied volatility and premium among similar products [22][23]
10月23日【港股Podcast】恆指、京東、藥明生物、百度、中國聯通、李寧
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 05:09
Group 1: Hang Seng Index (HSI) Analysis - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) experienced a slight increase of 0.72%, closing at 25,967 points, just below the 26,000 mark [1] - Market sentiment is mixed, with both bullish and bearish perspectives present, which is a normal market phenomenon [1] - Technical signals indicate a predominance of "sell" signals, with 8 sell signals compared to 6 buy signals, suggesting a cautious outlook [1] - The support level for HSI is around 25,400 points; if it falls below this, it may drop further to 24,600 points [2] - The resistance level is approximately 26,500 points, and investors are advised to consider bear certificates with a redemption price around 26,400 points [2] Group 2: JD Group (09618) Analysis - JD Group's stock closed at 128.7 yuan, with a support level at 124.3 yuan; a drop below this could lead to further declines to 117.7 yuan [9] - Some investors anticipate a rise to around 130 yuan before considering bearish positions, aligning with the current technical signals that favor buying [10] - The short-term resistance level for JD is approximately 135 yuan, indicating potential upward movement before any bearish actions [10] Group 3: WuXi Biologics (02269) Analysis - WuXi Biologics' stock has shown a slight decline with increased trading volume, indicating a potential buying opportunity [15] - The current support level is around 33.8 yuan; if this level is breached, the stock may drop to 30 yuan [15] - Despite the bearish sentiment, short-term technical signals are predominantly "buy," suggesting a favorable buying atmosphere [15] Group 4: Baidu Group (09888) Analysis - Baidu's stock is in a stable consolidation phase, with a support level at 111.3 yuan; a drop below this could lead to further declines to 98.4 yuan [21] - The short-term technical signals favor buying, with 10 buy signals against 5 sell signals, indicating potential for upward movement [21] - Investors are advised to consider bull certificates with a redemption price around 80 yuan for added safety [21] Group 5: China Unicom (00762) Analysis - China Unicom's stock closed at 9.39 yuan, near the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands, with a resistance level at 9.67 yuan [27] - A breakthrough of the 9.67 yuan resistance could lead to further increases towards 9.85 yuan, but reaching 10 yuan may take time [27] - The short-term technical signals are neutral, indicating no clear direction for price movement [27] Group 6: Li Ning (02331) Analysis - Li Ning's stock has shown strong performance, with a resistance level at 19.6 yuan; breaking this could lead to further increases towards 19.8 yuan [33] - The current technical signals are neutral, suggesting a lack of clear upward or downward momentum [33] - Investors are encouraged to monitor market trends and consider various sources of information for informed decision-making [33]
10月23日【輪證短評】三一國際、嗶哩嗶哩、舜宇光學、華潤燃氣
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-24 05:09
Group 1 - The article discusses various stocks and their related derivative products, aiming to provide market insights and investment opportunities [1] - The first stock mentioned is SANY International (00631), which experienced a significant drop in price, nearing the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, with high trading volume indicating volatility [2][3] - The second stock is Bilibili (09626), which has seen a decline in its stock price, prompting some investors to consider it a potential entry point, with various call options available for selection [4][5] Group 2 - The analysis of Bilibili's options reveals a mix of in-the-money and out-of-the-money products, with one notable out-of-the-money option priced at 236 HKD, close to a resistance level of 233 HKD [5][6] - The third stock discussed is Sunny Optical (02382), which is currently trading at 78.55 HKD, with mixed investor sentiment regarding its potential to rise to 85 HKD or fall to 70 HKD [9] - Technical signals for Sunny Optical indicate a predominance of buy signals, suggesting a bullish outlook if it can break through the first resistance level at 83.7 HKD [9] Group 3 - The fourth stock, China Resources Gas (01193), saw a notable increase in price to 21.5 HKD, approaching the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands, with optimistic investor targets set at 30 HKD [14][15] - There are two call options available for China Resources Gas, both expiring in February, with one option priced at 25.55 HKD showing more competitive terms compared to the other at 26.88 HKD [14][15] - The article emphasizes the importance of having multiple product options for better comparison and selection, highlighting the current limited choices for some stocks [15]