Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue for the first 23 days of this month reached MOP 15.6 billion, averaging MOP 678 million per day, showing a year-on-year growth of over 10% compared to November last year, suggesting potential upside to the bank's forecast of a 13% year-on-year growth for Macau gaming in Q4 this year [1][1][1] Group 1 - The average daily revenue for the past week decreased by 4% to MOP 642 million due to high base effects [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on gaming stocks for next year, despite current stock prices being slightly lower [1] - In the short term (approximately 6 months), the company is optimistic about Sands China, expecting it to increase dividends when announcing earnings at the end of February next year and gain greater market share and profits in Q4 this year [1][1][1] Group 2 - In the long term (over 12 months), Galaxy Entertainment remains Morgan Stanley's top pick, citing its strong value and long-term growth potential, along with the optionality of its Phase 4 project expected to open in 2027, which may reflect in the stock price sometime next year [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue increase of 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the same period in 2019 [1] - VIP gaming table turnover increased by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the same period in 2019 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, recovering to 81.3% of the same period in 2019 [1] Financial Performance - The net revenue for "Galaxy Macau" and StarWorld Hotel increased by 20% and decreased by 6% year-on-year, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% and 8%, reaching HKD 10.1 billion and HKD 1.3 billion [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau" and StarWorld Hotel was HKD 3.07 billion and HKD 370 million, showing year-on-year growth of 20% and a decrease of 7%, respectively [2] - The EBITDA margin for "Galaxy Macau" and StarWorld Hotel was 30.4% and 29.2%, respectively [2] Development Projects - The majority of facilities for the new hotel brand, Capella Hotels and Resorts, have opened, with positive customer feedback; remaining facilities, including a specialty restaurant, are expected to open early next year [2] - The fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau" construction is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters and introducing several high-end hotel brands [2] - Capital expenditure for the year is expected to be significantly lower than the previously budgeted HKD 7 billion, with HKD 630 million spent during the period [2] Market Trends - The company recorded good performance in October and post-Golden Week, with retail performance showing quarter-on-quarter improvement [3] - Approximately 260 entertainment, sports, arts, culture, and exhibition events were held from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in foot traffic to "Galaxy Macau" [3] - The market share remained stable at around 19.6%, with short-term expectations to maintain above 20% [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a buy rating with a target price of HKD 50.06, equivalent to 13 times the 2026 EV/EBITDA [3] - Confidence in the company's long-term development is supported by strong product offerings, a solid balance sheet, and upcoming projects [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 50.06, representing a potential upside of 30.36% from the current stock price of HKD 38.40 [3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 performance met expectations, with net revenue increasing by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, reaching HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The VIP gaming table turnover increased by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, while mass gaming revenue grew by 12.8% year-on-year and 7.4% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the group grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, recovering to 81.3% of the same period in 2019 [3]. - The company holds a strong balance sheet with net cash of HKD 34.8 billion, the strongest in the industry [3]. Financial Summary - Total net revenue is projected to grow from HKD 35,683.6 million in 2023 to HKD 55,764.5 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.5% [2][4]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from HKD 9,955.0 million in 2023 to HKD 16,439.8 million in 2027, with an EBITDA margin improving from 27.9% to 29.5% over the same period [2][4]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from HKD 6,828.0 million in 2023 to HKD 12,317.4 million in 2027, indicating a CAGR of 9.6% [2][4]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout, with dividends per share expected to increase from HKD 0.5 in 2023 to HKD 1.6 in 2027, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.3% by 2027 [2][4]. Operational Highlights - The performance of "Galaxy Macau™" and the StarWorld Hotel showed a net revenue increase of 20% and a decrease of 6% year-on-year, respectively, with hotel occupancy rates at 98% and 99% [3]. - The company is progressing with the construction of the fourth phase of "Galaxy Macau™," expected to be completed in 2027, which will introduce several high-end hotel brands and a theater with 5,000 seats [3]. - The company hosted approximately 260 entertainment, sports, arts, and cultural events from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic to "Galaxy Macau™" [3].

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a target price of HKD 50.06, citing strong product and service offerings, a robust balance sheet, and upcoming projects that will enhance market share [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Galaxy's net revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the 2019 level [2] - VIP gaming table turnover rose by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the 2019 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [2] Group 2: Hotel Performance - Net revenue for Macau Galaxy and StarWorld hotels grew by 20% and decreased by 6% year-on-year, respectively, with quarter-on-quarter growth of 1% and 8% to HKD 10.1 billion and HKD 1.3 billion [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Macau Galaxy and StarWorld hotels was HKD 3.07 billion and HKD 370 million, with respective EBITDA margins of 30.4% and 29.2% [3] Group 3: Project Updates - The Capella Hotel and Resort, the tenth brand of Macau Galaxy, has most facilities open, with a remaining restaurant expected to open early next year [4] - The construction of the fourth phase of Macau Galaxy is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters and introducing several high-end hotel brands [4] Group 4: Recent Developments - The group hosted around 260 entertainment, sports, arts, and cultural events from January to September 2025, leading to a 41% year-on-year increase in visitor traffic [5] - Daily operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 37 million, while market share remained stable at approximately 19.6% [5]

Core Viewpoint - First Shanghai maintains a "Buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) with a target price of HKD 50.06, citing strong product and service offerings, a robust balance sheet, and upcoming projects that will enhance market share [1] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance Overview - Galaxy's net revenue increased by 14.0% year-on-year and 1.0% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 12.16 billion, recovering to 95.7% of the 2019 level [1] - VIP gaming table turnover rose by 46.28% year-on-year and 16.6% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 39.7% of the 2019 level [1] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 13.6% year-on-year but decreased by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 3.34 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 27.5% [1] Group 2: Macau Galaxy and StarWorld Hotel Performance - Macau Galaxy's net revenue grew by 20% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 10.1 billion, recovering to 108% of the 2019 level [2] - StarWorld Hotel's net revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year but increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 1.3 billion, recovering to 50% of the 2019 level [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for Macau Galaxy was HKD 3.07 billion (up 20% year-on-year) and for StarWorld was HKD 370 million (down 7% year-on-year) [2] Group 3: Updates on Macau Galaxy Phase 3 and 4 - The Capella Hotel and Resort, the tenth brand of Macau Galaxy, has most facilities open with positive customer feedback; remaining facilities are expected to open early next year [3] - Construction for Phase 4 is ongoing, expected to be completed by 2027, covering approximately 600,000 square meters with multiple high-end hotel brands and various entertainment facilities [3] - Capital expenditure for the year is expected to be significantly lower than the previously budgeted HKD 7 billion, with HKD 630 million spent in the period and a budget of approximately HKD 7 billion for next year [3] Group 4: Recent Performance - Retail performance showed quarter-on-quarter improvement, with approximately 260 events held from January to September 2025, increasing foot traffic by 41% year-on-year [4] - The market share remained stable at around 19.6%, with short-term expectations to maintain above 20% [4] - Daily operating expenses increased by 8% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 370 million [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong gaming stocks are experiencing a rebound, with significant increases in share prices for major companies in the sector [1] Company Performance - Wynn Macau (01128.HK) has risen by 4.31%, reaching HKD 6.53 [1] - MGM China (02282.HK) has increased by 3.96%, now priced at HKD 15.74 [1] - Melco International Development (00200.HK) has seen a rise of 3.68%, trading at HKD 4.79 [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027.HK) has grown by 2.71%, with a current price of HKD 39.44 [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks have rebounded today, with Wynn Macau rising by 4.31% to HKD 6.53, MGM China up by 3.96% to HKD 15.74, Melco International Development increasing by 3.68% to HKD 4.79, and Galaxy Entertainment gaining 2.71% to HKD 39.44 [1] - The Macau government estimates the total gross gaming revenue for next year to be MOP 236 billion [1] - Jefferies has adjusted its revenue outlook for the remainder of this year and next year to year-on-year growth rates of 9.1% and 3.6%, respectively [1] Group 2 - Jefferies raised its Macau gaming revenue forecast for this year from USD 28.217 billion to USD 30.777 billion [1] - The forecast for next year's revenue was lowered from USD 32.917 billion to USD 31.878 billion, with the year-on-year growth rate revised down from 5% to 3.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks in Macau have shown a rebound, with notable increases in share prices for major companies such as Wynn Macau, MGM China, Melco International Development, and Galaxy Entertainment, following the government's revenue forecast for the gaming industry in 2024 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Wynn Macau (01128) increased by 4.31%, trading at HKD 6.53 [1] - MGM China (02282) rose by 3.96%, trading at HKD 15.74 [1] - Melco International Development (00200) saw a 3.68% increase, trading at HKD 4.79 [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) grew by 2.71%, trading at HKD 39.44 [1] Group 2: Revenue Forecasts - The Macau government estimates the total gross gaming revenue for next year to be MOP 236 billion [1] - Jefferies adjusted its revenue outlook for the remainder of this year and next year to year-on-year growth rates of 9.1% and 3.6%, respectively [1] - Jefferies raised its forecast for Macau's gaming revenue this year from USD 28.217 billion to USD 30.777 billion [1] - The forecast for next year's revenue was revised down from USD 32.917 billion to USD 31.878 billion, with the year-on-year growth rate adjusted from 5% to 3.6% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks in Macau experienced a significant decline in early trading, with major companies like Sands China, Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment all reporting losses. The Macau government anticipates a stable growth in the tourism sector, projecting a gross gaming revenue of 236 billion MOP for the next year, despite uncertainties in the external environment and economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Sands China (01928) fell by 5.33%, trading at 19.2 HKD [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) decreased by 5.12%, trading at 6.3 HKD [1] - MGM China (02282) dropped by 3.67%, trading at 15.47 HKD [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) declined by 3.15%, trading at 38.76 HKD [1] Group 2: Gaming Revenue Insights - The total gaming revenue for the first ten months of this year reached 2,054.27 million MOP, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that the gaming revenue for October was 240 million MOP, marking a 16% year-on-year growth and a 32% month-on-month increase, the strongest performance in six years [1] - The bank forecasts a slowdown in growth for November, estimating an increase of 8% to 10%, but expects a rebound in December with growth accelerating to 15% to 17% [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gaming stocks experienced a collective decline, with specific companies like Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China seeing drops of over 5% [1][2] - The Macau government anticipates that the tourism industry will continue to develop in the next fiscal year (2026), estimating the total gaming revenue for next year to be 236 billion MOP [1] - Earlier, the government had revised its gaming revenue forecast for 2025 from 240 billion MOP down to 228 billion MOP [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the growth rate for November may slow down to between 8% and 10% compared to October due to a more challenging base [1]