Group 1 - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to benefit Hong Kong real estate while negatively impacting Hong Kong banks [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on banks, currently underweighting bank stocks and listing Hang Seng Bank as one of the least favored [1] - The firm continues to favor Hong Kong property developers as the interest rate cut cycle approaches, predicting a reversal of the trend where banks have outperformed property developers since 2022 [1] Group 2 - In the first half of the year, 98% of the 49 Hong Kong-listed companies covered by UBS reported a net profit decline of 7% year-on-year, despite a 4% increase in revenue [2] - The financial sector performed well, benefiting from favorable market conditions and better-than-expected non-interest income, while sectors like Macau gaming and airlines faced more companies falling short of expectations [2] - UBS has included Wynn Macau and Galaxy Entertainment in its top recommendations due to improved demand from high-end customers and sustainable revenue momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is currently experiencing volatility in its stock price, trading between 41 and 42 HKD, with a trading volume of 139 million HKD, indicating a critical battle between bulls and bears as the market focuses on potential breakout directions [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The current support levels for Galaxy Entertainment are at 39.8 HKD (Support 1) and 38.9 HKD (Support 2), while resistance levels are at 42.8 HKD (Resistance 1) and 43.6 HKD (Resistance 2) [1]. - The stock price is slightly above the 10-day moving average of 40.99 HKD and has clearly surpassed the 30-day (39.73 HKD) and 60-day (37.71 HKD) moving averages, indicating a positive medium-term trend [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 63, approaching the overbought zone, with several oscillators showing neutral to bullish signals, and momentum oscillators indicating a buy signal, reflecting a moderate upward trend [1]. Market Sentiment and Investment Flow - There has been a notable increase in the issuance of call warrants related to Galaxy Entertainment, with approximately 27 million warrants in circulation, reflecting strong investor interest [3]. - The stock has seen a rise from the low 20s to the recent 40s, driven by positive data from mainland tourists and Macau's gaming revenue growth, alongside tourism promotions and new hotel openings [3]. - The latest call warrant issued by the company has a strike price of 51.88 HKD, expiring in January next year, with a leverage of around 6 times, indicating strong investor engagement [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the expected dividend payout ratio for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 respectively for the same period [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - The company has been given a "in line with the market" rating, but there are warnings that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premiums may reverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) based on the company's mid-term performance, increasing the dividend payout ratio from 50% to 60% for 2025 to 2027, resulting in a 19% increase in the predicted dividend per share [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for Galaxy Entertainment for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher expected operating expenses [1] - Earnings per share forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, HKD 2.58, and HKD 2.73 to HKD 2.36, HKD 2.56, and HKD 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Risks - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a "market perform" rating but warns that if competitors resume dividends and the company's market share continues to weaken, some potential premium may reverse [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Galaxy Entertainment's dividend payout ratio forecast for 2025 to 2027 to 60% and increased the per-share dividend forecast [1] - Despite slight downward adjustments to EBITDA and earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027, the target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised to HKD 44 [1] - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share, maintaining a "market perform" rating [1] Group 2 - There is a risk of valuation premium decline if competitors resume dividend payouts and Galaxy Entertainment's market share continues to weaken [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated its forecast for Galaxy Entertainment, raising the dividend payout ratio prediction for 2025 to 2027 from 50% to 60%, with a 19% increase in the per-share dividend forecast [1] Financial Projections - EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been reduced by 1% due to higher operating expense expectations [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts have been adjusted from HKD 2.39, 2.58, and 2.73 to HKD 2.36, 2.56, and 2.72 for the respective years [1] - The target price for Galaxy Entertainment has been raised from HKD 40 to HKD 44 [1] Market Position and Outlook - The opening of the Capella Hotel is expected to help Galaxy Entertainment increase its market share [1] - Morgan Stanley has assigned a "market perform" rating, but cautions that if competitors resume dividends while Galaxy's market share remains weak, some potential premium may reverse [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年8月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 銀河娛樂集團有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年9月3日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | 備註： | | | | 銀河娛樂集團有限公司並無法定股本，及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00027 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 4,374,894,550 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) reached a post-pandemic high in August, growing 12% year-on-year to MOP 22.2 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - Compared to pre-pandemic levels, August's gaming revenue has recovered to 91% of the figures [1] - The report suggests that the performance in August reflects a turning point for the Macau gaming industry, driven by wealth effects and ample liquidity in the Hong Kong market [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates that the strong momentum will continue for some time, projecting a year-on-year growth of 15% in gaming revenue and 21% in EBITDA for the first quarter of next year [1] - In terms of stock recommendations, the company prefers Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China, with target prices set at HKD 54 and HKD 23 respectively [1] - Sands China is the second choice with a target price of HKD 24.5, all rated as "buy," while Melco International Development is rated as "sell" with a target price of HKD 4.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Macau gaming sector shows strong performance with record monthly gross gaming revenue and increased tourist arrivals, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1] Group 1: Gaming Revenue - Macau's gross gaming revenue for August reached 22.16 billion MOP, marking a new monthly high for the year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [1] - From January to August, the total gross gaming revenue amounted to 163.05 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] Group 2: Tourist Arrivals - The Macau Public Security Police reported that the number of inbound tourists during the summer of 2025 (July to August) reached 7.68 million, averaging 123,000 visitors per day, which is a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - Major gaming stocks in Hong Kong saw gains, with SJM Holdings up 2.40%, Galaxy Entertainment up 2.14%, and Sands China up 1.29% among others [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on September 2, with the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) rising by 0.23% and a trading volume exceeding 15 million yuan, indicating a premium trading trend [1] - Notable stocks within the ETF include Zhongsheng Holdings and Midea Group, both rising over 4%, while Galaxy Entertainment, BYD, Pop Mart, and Miniso saw increases of over 1% [1] - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF has experienced net inflows in 8 out of the last 10 days, totaling over 110 million yuan [1] Group 2 - According to Huatai Securities, the consumption sector is witnessing structural opportunities driven by new demands, scenarios, and models, with significant growth in emotional and personalized products like trendy toys and cosmetics [2] - The integration of services and products is reshaping the "people-goods-scene" relationship, expanding consumption boundaries [2] - Domestic brands are rapidly rising due to innovative business models and channel efficiency, with a focus on categories that show potential for penetration, supply-side capabilities, and policy support [2]