Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a net loss of approximately 1.289 billion to 1.576 billion yuan in 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices and reduced demand for its products [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Shanghai Petrochemical anticipates a net profit loss of about 12.89 billion to 15.76 billion yuan, with a similar range for its non-recurring net profit loss [2] - The company reported significant losses in 2022 and 2023, with a net loss of 2.872 billion yuan in 2022 and a net loss of 1.406 billion yuan in 2023 [6][7] - The revenue for 2022 was 82.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.57% year-on-year, while 2023 saw an increase in revenue to 93.014 billion yuan, a growth of 12.72% [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average annual price of WTI crude oil in 2025 is projected to be $64.73 per barrel, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year, while Brent crude is expected to average $68.19 per barrel, down 14.62% [3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are also expected to decline in 2025, with gasoline averaging 8,282 yuan per ton (down 5.76%) and diesel at 7,146 yuan per ton (down 5.51%) [3] Group 3: Product Pricing and Demand - The prices of key chemical products produced by Shanghai Petrochemical, such as polyethylene and polypropylene, are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with polyethylene prices dropping by 20.28% [4] - The average price of paraxylene is projected to decrease from $940.74 per ton in 2024 to $814.75 per ton in 2025, reflecting a 13.39% decline [5] - The demand for traditional petroleum products is under pressure due to the rise of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources, leading to a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption [7] Group 4: Operational Challenges - The company faced operational challenges due to maintenance shutdowns, which impacted production and increased material and energy consumption [5] - The overall refining profit margin for independent refineries in Shandong is projected to be low, averaging 260.1 yuan per ton in 2025 [4]

港股石油继续涨势，其中，中海油田服务涨4%，中国石油股份涨3.3%，中国海洋石油、上海石油化工 涨约3%，中国石油化工涨2%，昆仑能源涨1.4%。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

随着地缘政治不确定性上升促使投资者押注油价走高，过去几个月里强劲上涨的美股能源板块已攀升至 历史新高。随着围绕格陵兰问题的美欧紧张关系引发不确定性，WTI原油价格走高，主要石油生产商股 价随之上涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 8.430 | 4.07% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 8.680 | 3.33% | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 22.800 | 2.80% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.490 | 2.76% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 5.080 | 2.01% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 8.020 | 1.39% | 港股石油继续涨势，其中，中海油田服务涨4%，中国石油股份涨3.3%，中国海洋石油、上海石油化工 涨约3%，中国石油化工涨2%，昆仑能源涨1.4%。 消息上，国际能源署(IEA)在其备受关注的月度报告中表示，受全球经济前景改善以及原油价格走低影 响，其已上调对全球原油需求增长的预测；但同时警告称，未 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong oil stocks experienced a collective rise at the beginning of trading, driven by an increase in international oil prices and geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply [1] Group 1: Market Performance - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) saw a price increase of over 2%, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rose by 1.2% [2] - China Petroleum (PetroChina) increased by 2.07% to a price of 8.380, and Sinopec rose by 1.63% to 5.000 [2] - China Oilfield Services and Shanghai Petrochemical also showed gains, with increases of 1.39% and 0.69% respectively [2] Group 2: Oil Price Influences - International oil prices rose by over 1.5% in the previous night’s trading [1] - Everbright Securities highlighted the impact of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and ongoing global trade conflicts on oil demand expectations for 2026 [1] - The geopolitical risk premium for oil has increased due to heightened tensions in Iran, contributing to rising oil prices [1] Group 3: OPEC+ Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases for Q1 2026, which may alleviate market concerns regarding oil supply [1] - Future production levels will be determined based on changes in the oil market [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing lower. The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.29% or 76.39 points to 26,487.51 points, with a total turnover of HKD 2,377.66 million. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.43% to 9,094.76 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.16% to 5,683.44 points [1] Blue Chip Performance - Pop Mart (09992) led the blue-chip stocks, rising by 9.07% to HKD 197.2, contributing 19.52 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a share buyback of 1.4 million shares for HKD 2.51 million at prices between HKD 177.7 and HKD 181.2. Morgan Stanley noted that this buyback could attract more investors [2] - Other notable blue-chip performances included China Life (601628) (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, contributing 16.6 points, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64, contributing 5.52 points. Conversely, WuXi AppTec (603259) (02359) fell by 4.13% to HKD 113.7, detracting 3.73 points, and SMIC (00981) dropped by 3.25% to HKD 74.5, detracting 18.11 points [2] Sector Highlights - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu rising by 0.95% while Tencent fell over 1%. Gold stocks rebounded, with spot gold surpassing USD 4,700 for the first time, and consumer stocks gained traction due to favorable consumption policies. Notably, Pop Mart's buyback led to a price increase of over 10% [3] - Gold stocks saw a recovery, with Zijin Mining International (02259) up 5.47% to HKD 179.4, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) (06693) up 3.6% to HKD 33.94, Shandong Gold Mining (600547) (01787) up 2.73% to HKD 43.7, and China National Gold International (600916) (02099) up 2.04% to HKD 195 [3] Real Estate Sector - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities for December 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Shenwan Hongyuan believes that the real estate sector has undergone deep adjustments, and recent central government directives to stabilize the market may lead to positive policy changes [5] - The real estate sector showed positive performance, with China Overseas Land & Investment (00081) up 4.93% to HKD 2.13, and China Resources Land (01109) up 3.71% to HKD 29.64 [4][5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector performed well, with China Pacific Insurance (00966) up 4.39% to HKD 23.8, China Life (02628) up 4.31% to HKD 33.4, and New China Life Insurance (601336) (01336) up 2.72% to HKD 62.35. Reports indicated that major insurance companies saw significant growth in premium income through bancassurance channels [4][5] Aviation Sector - The aviation sector continued its upward trend, with China Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) up 4.57% to HKD 6.18, China National Aviation (601111) (00753) up 3.91% to HKD 7.45, and Cathay Pacific (00293) up 1.63% to HKD 12.49. Analysts expect strong demand during the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, with improved ticket pricing and revenue management driving profitability [6] Notable Stock Movements - Youjia Innovation (02431) saw a significant increase of 7.21% to HKD 15.77 after signing a memorandum of understanding with India's Sterling Tools Ltd. to focus on the automotive market [7] - Nanshan Aluminum International (02610) reached a new high, rising 6.04% to HKD 71.95, as the company plans to initiate a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project with an estimated investment of USD 436.6 million [8] - GigaDevice Semiconductor (603986) (03986) continued to rise by 5.52% to HKD 306, benefiting from a tight supply of memory chips [9] - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688) (00338) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025 [10]

Core Insights - Shanghai Petrochemical is focusing on high-end and differentiated products to meet market demand, achieving a 93.5% increase in the effectiveness of high-value-added synthetic resin products compared to the previous year, with a 1.8% increase in sales volume [1] Group 1: Product Strategy - The company has formed multiple specialized technical service teams to collaborate with clients in key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and automotive, developing customized material solutions [1] - Shanghai Petrochemical is implementing a "one product, one strategy" pricing approach for different high-end products, effectively enhancing product value [1] Group 2: Market Position - Over 90% of the company's synthetic resin products are high-end polyolefin specialty materials, with a growing market share in strategic emerging fields such as new energy battery packaging and specialty films, establishing a competitive advantage [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic refined oil market showed a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with both gasoline and diesel inventories increasing. Next week, it is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential increases in domestic gasoline and diesel production, continued weak demand, and rising inventory pressure on Shandong independent refineries [6][7]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries continuing to decline. The production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline, and the diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [6]. - Demand: The purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches of the market increased this week, market sentiment improved, and the sales-to-production ratios of gasoline and diesel both rebounded above the balance [6]. - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 11.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 110,000 tons (+1.0%); diesel inventory was 12.81 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 270,000 tons (+2.1%). Local refinery diesel inventory decreased, while gasoline inventory increased slightly. Social inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased [6]. Future Outlook - Next week, the domestic refined oil market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply may see a slight increase in overall domestic gasoline and diesel production, while demand will remain weak. Shandong independent refineries are expected to face rising inventory pressure [7]. Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking Price - Gasoline market prices increased slightly in most regions, with the national average price rising from 7,274 yuan/ton to 7,311 yuan/ton. Diesel market prices also increased slightly, with the national average price rising from 6,029 yuan/ton to 6,036 yuan/ton [14]. Profit - The refining profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85 yuan/ton. The refining profit of independent refineries was 247 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 121 yuan/ton [19]. Operating Rate - The operating rate of Chinese refineries remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both declining slightly [32][34]. Production - This week, the production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline. The diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [42][46]. Sales - The sales volume and sales-to-production ratio of gasoline and diesel from independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both increased [51]. Demand - The demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. Although some terminals started to stock up for the Spring Festival, overall consumption sentiment was still dull [7]. Inventory - Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased this week. Next week, the gasoline inventory of Shandong independent refineries is expected to rise slightly, and diesel inventory is also expected to increase [74][78].

智通财经APP获悉，上海石化(00338)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.26%，报1.44港元，成交额1754.8万港 元。 消息面上，上海石油化工股份公布，预计集团截至2025年12月31日止归属于母公司股东的净亏损约为人 民币12.89亿元到人民币15.76亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损；预计归属于母公司股东的扣除非经 常性损益的净亏损约为人民币12.80亿元到人民币15.64亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损。 公告指，集团于2025年业绩预计出现亏损主要由于2025年国际原油价格总体震荡下行，产品市场需求未 有明显改善，集团主要炼化产品毛利空间缩减，叠加四季度集团生产装置大修影响，商品总量下降，上 述原因综合导致集团经营亏损。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that southbound funds increased their holdings in Shanghai Petrochemical Company by 1.56 million shares on January 19, while experiencing a net reduction of 23.63 million shares over the past five trading days [1] - Over the last 20 trading days, southbound funds have reduced their holdings in the company for 17 days, resulting in a total net reduction of 45.74 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 1.019 billion shares of Shanghai Petrochemical Company, accounting for 31.69% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2 - Shanghai Petrochemical Company, a subsidiary of Sinopec, primarily engages in the petrochemical business through three segments: refining products, chemical products, and petrochemical product trading [1] - The refining products segment includes facilities for producing qualified refined gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heavy oil, and liquefied petroleum gas [1] - The chemical products segment mainly produces paraxylene, benzene, ethylene oxide, polyethylene resin, polypropylene resin, acrylic fiber, and carbon fiber [1] - The petrochemical product trading segment focuses on the import and export trade of petrochemical products [1] - The company also engages in leasing, providing services, and various other commercial activities, operating in both domestic and international markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a significant net loss for the year 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices, weak product demand, and a major maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter [2][3]. Trading Information Summary - On January 19, 2026, Shanghai Petrochemical's stock closed at 2.94 yuan, up 3.16%, with a turnover rate of 1.02%, a trading volume of 747,200 shares, and a transaction value of 217 million yuan [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 8.95 million yuan, accounting for 4.12% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 6.17 million yuan, representing 2.84% of the total [1]. Earnings Disclosure Highlights - The company forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of 12.89 billion to 15.76 billion yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring loss of 12.80 billion to 15.64 billion yuan [2][3]. - The previous year's net profit was 3.165 billion yuan, indicating a significant downturn in financial performance [2]. Company Announcement Summary - The anticipated losses are attributed to several factors: the downturn in international crude oil prices, weak market demand for products, and a reduction in total commodity output due to a major maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter [2][3]. - The company also disclosed key operational data for 2025, including production and sales figures for various refined and chemical products, along with average price changes for major products and raw materials [2].