Group 1 - The national industrial product PPI, production material PPI, and chemical industry PPI are expected to show negative year-on-year growth for 38 consecutive months by November 2025, marking the second longest period of negative growth in history after the 2012-2016 cycle [1] - As of December 2025, among 111 tracked chemical products, 30 products are in the lowest 10% price percentile, and 70 products are in the lowest 30% price percentile, indicating significant price pressure in the chemical sector [1] - Recent price increases have been observed in the chemical market, with epoxy propylene prices rising by 7.9% week-on-week and organic silicon intermediates also experiencing price increases [1] Group 2 - The bulk chemical market is at a dual inflection point of capacity and inventory cycles, with expectations of entering an upturn as domestic and international demand recovers by 2026 [2] - The extreme winter weather in the U.S. has disrupted natural gas and electricity supplies, affecting chemical production in key areas like Texas, which may impact global supply stability for bulk chemicals [2] - The potential decline in overseas supply could enhance domestic chemical production rates and improve market conditions, particularly for refining, ethylene, acetic acid, MDI, and TDI [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed companies in the chemical sector include Sinopec (00386), Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033), Sinopec Engineering (02386), Shanghai Petrochemical (00338), Sinopec Kantons (00934), China Sanjiang Chemical (02198), and Wuhan Organic (02881) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged period of negative growth in PPI, with projections suggesting a potential recovery as demand stabilizes and capital expenditure decreases [1][2] - The chemical market has seen significant price increases recently, with epoxy propylene prices rising by 7.9% week-on-week, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The cyclical nature of the chemical industry is highlighted, with expectations of entering an upward phase as domestic and international demand recovers by 2026 [2] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. is facing supply disruptions due to extreme winter weather, impacting energy prices and chemical production in key areas like Texas, which may affect global supply stability [2] - The domestic chemical industry is at a dual inflection point in terms of capacity and inventory cycles, suggesting that potential supply declines from overseas could enhance domestic production rates and improve market conditions [2] - Key sectors of interest include refining, ethylene, acetic acid, MDI, and TDI, which are expected to benefit from these market changes [2] Group 3 - Relevant companies in the chemical sector include Sinopec, Sinopec Oilfield Service, Sinopec Engineering, Shanghai Petrochemical, Sinopec Kantons, China Sanjiang Fine Chemicals, and Wuhan Organic [3]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical has successfully achieved the complete localization of the core sealing component rotor plate of the S-601 rotary valve in its aromatic division, marking the first domestic production of this component and breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly [1] Group 1: Localization Achievement - The S-601 rotary valve, previously imported, had its rotor plate subject to high technical barriers, leading to reliance on foreign suppliers [1] - To address this "bottleneck" issue, Shanghai Petrochemical formed a specialized team with East China University of Science and Technology and Yangzhong Sanli Machinery Co., Ltd. in December 2024 to initiate domestic development [1] - The team completed the first prototype by June 2025 and optimized key indicators, achieving product acceptance by October of the same year [1] Group 2: Performance and Implementation - The domestic rotor plate was installed during a maintenance window in November 2025, demonstrating excellent sealing performance and stable operation, meeting the expected targets [1]

在地缘政治紧张与美国寒潮天气共同冲击下，国际油价强劲反弹，收盘价更是刷新了3个月来的新高。 同时，港A两地石油股继续走高。港股市场中，中国海洋石油、中海油田服务涨超5%，中国石油股份、上海石油化 工股份涨超4%，中国石油化工股份涨超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 24.820 | +1.300 | 5.53% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 9.060 | +0.470 | 5.47% | | 00346 | 延长石油国际 | 0.415 | +0.020 | 5.06% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 9.240 | +0.430 | 4.88% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股份 | 1.560 | +0.070 | 4.70% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股份 | 5.450 | +0.190 | 3.61% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 8.000 | +0.050 | C ( C ( 3 ) | A股市场中，通源石油2 ...

此外，因一场严重冬季风暴横扫全美、令能源基础设施和电网承压，美国石油生产商在上周末损失的产 量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的15%。华泰证券研报指出，地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹， 随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3油价有望见底上探。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 24.540 | 4.34% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.550 | 4.03% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 9.180 | 4.20% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 8.910 | 3.73% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 5.420 | 3.04% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.990 | 0.50% | 港股石油股继续涨势，中国海洋石油、中国石油股份、上海石油化工均涨超4%，其中，中海油刷新历 史新高价，中海油田服务涨3.7%，中国石油化工涨3%。 消息上，负责中东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场 ...

中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司，成立于1993年，位于上海市，是一家以从事石油、煤炭及其他燃 料加工业为主的企业。企业注册资本1054261.75万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石化上海石油 化工股份有限公司共对外投资了21家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息51条，专 利信息1356条，此外企业还拥有行政许可12814个。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 国家知识产权局信息显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司、中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司取得一项 名为"一种再生塔腐蚀防控方法"的专利，授权公告号CN115990395B，申请日期为2021年10月。 天眼查资料显示，中国石油化工股份有限公司，成立于2000年，位于北京市，是一家以从事石油和天然 气开采业为主的企业。企业注册资本12173968.9893万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，中国石油化工 股份有限公司共对外投资了269家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息45条，专利 信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可41个。 ...

中国成品油周报 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F3108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 137/137/137 供应端，周全国炼厂开工上行0.8个百分点至71.4%，主营开工持续上行1.5个百分点至78.8%，云南石化开工继续上行，上海石化检修完成；地炼 开工持续下行0.3个百分点至53.6%，山东地炼开工率环比继续下跌，部分炼厂减产柴油，神驰化工等两家地炼进入全厂检修持续，大部分炼厂开 工稳定无新停开工。本周主营和地炼汽柴油产量均小幅上行。柴汽比下跌0.01至1.31。需求端，市场中下游采购积极性转弱，市场情绪消极，汽 柴油船单成交稳定车单产销下滑，汽柴产销率均下行。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油11 ...

Group 1: Natural Gas Market Insights - US natural gas prices saw a significant increase on January 25, with futures prices reaching $6 per million British thermal units for the first time since 2022 [1] - EIA forecasts a natural gas average price of $3.46 and $4.59 per million British thermal units for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a downward adjustment in price expectations [2] - Companies involved in the natural gas industry include Sinopec, which engages in the entire value chain from extraction to end supply [3] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with EIA predicting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day in global crude oil supply by 2026 [2] - The average crude oil prices are projected to be $56 and $54 per barrel for 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - Sinopec is involved in upstream oil resource development, while Shanghai Petrochemical focuses on refining and production of refined oil products [5][6] Group 3: Petrochemical Industry Insights - Sinopec manufactures basic petrochemical products such as olefins and aromatics, covering multiple segments of the petrochemical value chain [8] - Hengli Petrochemical operates in an integrated refining and petrochemical business model, processing raw materials into manufactured products [8] - Hongchuan Wisdom provides storage and logistics services for petrochemical products, participating in the warehousing and distribution segment of the petrochemical industry [9]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a significant net loss for the year 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices, weak product demand, narrowing refining margins, and a major maintenance shutdown in the fourth quarter [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 23, 2026, Shanghai Petrochemical's stock closed at 3.07 yuan, a 7.72% increase from the previous week's 2.85 yuan [1]. - The stock reached a high of 3.11 yuan and a low of 2.83 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current total market capitalization is 32.366 billion yuan, ranking 9th out of 30 in the refining and trading sector and 666th out of 5182 in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Earnings Forecast - Shanghai Petrochemical forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of between 12.89 billion yuan and 15.76 billion yuan for the year 2025 [1][3]. - The expected net loss after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 12.80 billion yuan and 15.64 billion yuan [1]. - The previous year's net profit was reported at 3.165 billion yuan [1]. Group 3: Reasons for Loss - The anticipated losses are attributed to several factors: the decline in international crude oil prices, weak market demand for products, reduced refining margins, and a significant maintenance shutdown affecting production volumes in the fourth quarter [1][3]. - The average processing cost of crude oil for 2025 is expected to decrease by 9.57% year-on-year [2].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical is expected to report a net loss of approximately 1.289 billion to 1.576 billion yuan in 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices and reduced demand for its products [2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Shanghai Petrochemical anticipates a net profit loss of about 12.89 billion to 15.76 billion yuan, with a similar range for its non-recurring net profit loss [2] - The company reported significant losses in 2022 and 2023, with a net loss of 2.872 billion yuan in 2022 and a net loss of 1.406 billion yuan in 2023 [6][7] - The revenue for 2022 was 82.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.57% year-on-year, while 2023 saw an increase in revenue to 93.014 billion yuan, a growth of 12.72% [6] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average annual price of WTI crude oil in 2025 is projected to be $64.73 per barrel, a decrease of 14.55% year-on-year, while Brent crude is expected to average $68.19 per barrel, down 14.62% [3] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are also expected to decline in 2025, with gasoline averaging 8,282 yuan per ton (down 5.76%) and diesel at 7,146 yuan per ton (down 5.51%) [3] Group 3: Product Pricing and Demand - The prices of key chemical products produced by Shanghai Petrochemical, such as polyethylene and polypropylene, are expected to decline significantly in 2025, with polyethylene prices dropping by 20.28% [4] - The average price of paraxylene is projected to decrease from $940.74 per ton in 2024 to $814.75 per ton in 2025, reflecting a 13.39% decline [5] - The demand for traditional petroleum products is under pressure due to the rise of electric vehicles and alternative energy sources, leading to a decrease in gasoline and diesel consumption [7] Group 4: Operational Challenges - The company faced operational challenges due to maintenance shutdowns, which impacted production and increased material and energy consumption [5] - The overall refining profit margin for independent refineries in Shandong is projected to be low, averaging 260.1 yuan per ton in 2025 [4]