港股公司报告 | 公司点评 华润电力（00836） 证券研究报告 纯火电权益核心利润保持增长，一次性因素扰动业绩 事件： 公司发布 2025 年中期业绩。上半年公司持有人应占利润为 78.72 亿港元， 同比减少 15.9%；持有人应占核心业务利润 82.78 亿港元，同比增加 0.1%。 公司 2025 年中期拟每股派息 0.356 港元。 点评 风光全年并网容量 10GW 规划不变，预计下半年投产火电权益装机 6GW 上半年公司新增风光并网装机约 4,839 兆瓦，新增火电项目权益并网装机 894 兆瓦。截至 6 月底，公司火力发电权益并网装机容量为 39.14GW，风 电权益并网装机容量为 25.55GW，光伏权益并网装机容量为 12.97GW；公 司风电在建管理装机容量为 8,679 兆瓦，光伏在建管理装机容量为 6,515 兆瓦。上半年公司获得可再生能源开发建设指标 5,874 兆瓦，其中风电项 目 3,996 兆瓦，光伏项目 1,878 兆瓦。展望后续，公司规划全年新增风电 和光伏项目并网容量 10,000 兆瓦，与年初目标一致；下半年公司预计投产 的火电机组权益装机容量约 5,982.5 兆瓦。 ...

Summary of China Resources Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Resources Power - **Industry**: Renewable Energy and Power Generation Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: Decreased by 1.7% year-on-year to HKD 50.27 billion [2][4] - **Net Profit**: Decreased by 15.9% year-on-year to HKD 7.87 billion; core profit increased by 0.1% to HKD 8.278 billion after excluding one-off items [2][4] - **Operating Cash Flow**: Increased by 36.1% year-on-year to HKD 14.12 billion [2][4] - **Earnings Per Share**: HKD 1.52 [4] Renewable Energy Performance - **Wind Power Sales**: Increased by 15.5% year-on-year to 25.9 billion kWh [2][3] - **Solar Power Sales**: Increased by 31.3% year-on-year to 4.1 billion kWh [2][3] - **Renewable Energy Market Transaction Volume**: 50.8% of total sales, up by 11.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] Capacity Pricing and Future Outlook - **Expected Capacity Revenue**: Projected to reach HKD 4 billion to HKD 4.5 billion for the year; current pricing is HKD 100 per kW, expected to rise to HKD 165 per kW next year, with some provinces potentially reaching HKD 330 per kW [2][11] - **Wind and Solar Curtailment Rate**: Approximately 6% in the first half of 2025; measures taken to reduce this include enhanced marketing and energy storage systems [2][7] Taxation and Financial Challenges - **Tax Rate**: Increased to 18.7% due to the expiration of tax incentives and increased withholding tax on dividends, impacting approximately HKD 90 million in income tax and HKD 160 million in withholding tax [3][9] - **Inner Mongolia Coal-Electricity Integration Project**: Transitioned from trial operation to formal production, resulting in short-term losses due to unaccounted costs during the trial phase; expected improvement in the second half of the year [3][10] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - **Wind Power Pricing Decline**: Average decrease of about 6% due to new projects and increased marketization; however, the overall impact is manageable due to competitive advantages in various provinces [9] - **Government Policies**: No direct government intervention in pricing; market mechanisms are preferred to ensure fair competition and stability [14][15] Future Investment Considerations - **Investment Models for New Energy Projects**: Consideration of market price changes and supply-demand uncertainties; stress testing conducted before investment decisions [5] - **Focus Areas for Profit Forecasting**: Capacity pricing revenue, Inner Mongolia coal mine operations, and impairment losses [11][12] Renewable Energy Sector Outlook - **Long-term Confidence**: The company remains optimistic about the renewable energy sector's growth potential, driven by national carbon neutrality goals and the importance of acquiring quality resources [8] - **Different Renewable Energy Types**: Wind power is favored over solar due to its competitive advantages; offshore wind power shows significant potential due to location and demand [16] Conclusion China Resources Power is navigating a challenging financial landscape with a focus on renewable energy growth, capacity pricing improvements, and strategic investments while managing tax implications and market dynamics. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on future opportunities in the renewable energy sector.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to commission 7 new coal power units in the second half of the year, with a total target of 10GW in new energy capacity for the year. The company's strong management capabilities and new installations are anticipated to contribute positively to profit growth [7] - The company forecasts capital expenditures of HKD 56.8 billion for 2025, with HKD 42 billion allocated for renewable energy projects and HKD 9.5 billion for thermal power construction [7] - The company achieved a core profit of HKD 82.78 billion in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the net profit decreased by 15.9% due to non-recurring gains from the previous year and increased impairments this year [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is HKD 18.43, with a market capitalization of HKD 95,413.17 million [4] Financial Data - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are HKD 109.93 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.41%. The net profit for 2025 is estimated at HKD 14.42 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2% [8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 13.1% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.6 [8] Operational Highlights - As of June 30, 2025, the company’s installed capacity was 78.09 million kW, with significant contributions from thermal, wind, and solar power [9] - The company’s electricity sales volume in the first half of 2025 was 102 billion kWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company's core profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is HKD 7.872 billion, a decrease of 15.9% compared to HKD 9.363 billion in the same period of 2024, primarily due to high base effects and weak coal production performance [2][6]. - The thermal power segment's core profit attributable to shareholders is HKD 2.641 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, impacted by last year's high base from the acquisition of the Guangxi Hezhou thermal power project [2][6]. - The renewable energy segment achieved a core profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 5.637 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, despite facing impairment losses [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's thermal power sales volume for the first half of 2025 is 71.1 billion kWh, a decrease of 1.4% year-on-year, with an average coal-fired electricity price of HKD 0.391 per kWh, down 6.1% [9]. - The average standard coal price is HKD 823.8 per ton, a decrease of 11.8% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in overall fuel costs to HKD 21.717 billion, down 12.2% [9]. - The renewable energy segment's installed capacity increased significantly, with wind power and solar power capacities growing by 33.6% and 159.2% respectively [9]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend of HKD 0.356 for the first half of 2025, with projected earnings for 2025-2027 being HKD 12.763 billion, HKD 13.108 billion, and HKD 13.805 billion respectively [9]. - Corresponding EPS for these years are projected to be HKD 2.47, HKD 2.53, and HKD 2.67, with PE ratios of 7.51, 7.31, and 6.94 respectively [9].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the electricity and natural gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [4][16]. Core Insights - In July, the national electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kWh for the first time, reaching 10,226 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% [4][7]. - The increase in electricity consumption was primarily driven by urban and rural residents, contributing 38% to the total growth, with significant contributions from the secondary and tertiary industries as well [8][9]. - The report highlights the impact of high temperatures on electricity demand, noting that July was the hottest month since 1961, which significantly boosted residential electricity usage [8][9]. - Natural gas prices in Europe have rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, while prices in Asia and the US have decreased, indicating a mixed market environment [16][20]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in the biomass energy sector following the introduction of new methodologies for carbon emissions reduction [4][16]. Summary by Sections Electricity - July's total electricity consumption reached 10,226 billion kWh, marking a historic milestone with an 8.6% year-on-year growth [4][7]. - The first, second, and third industries, along with urban and rural residents, contributed to the overall electricity consumption growth, with the second industry showing a recovery in electricity usage [8][9]. - Recommendations include investing in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International [14][15]. Natural Gas - The report notes a stable supply-demand balance in the natural gas market, with US prices dropping to $2.76/mmBtu, while European prices have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical risks [16][20]. - Recommendations for investment include companies in the city gas sector and integrated natural gas traders, highlighting firms like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy [41][42]. Environmental Sector - The introduction of new methodologies for biomass energy projects is expected to enhance profitability, with a focus on companies like Evergreen Group and China Everbright [4][16]. Market Performance - The report reviews market performance from August 18 to August 22, indicating that the gas, public utility, electricity, and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for 1H25, with a focus on the performance of its thermal and renewable energy segments, while maintaining its growth targets for renewable energy installations [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 1H25 decreased by 1.7% year-on-year to HKD 50.267 billion, while profit attributable to shareholders fell by 15.9% to HKD 7.872 billion, below the expected HKD 9.322 billion [1] - The core profit from the thermal power business decreased by 2.7% to HKD 2.641 billion, which was lower than expectations [1] - The renewable energy segment saw a core profit increase of 1.5% to HKD 5.637 billion [1] Dividend and Payout - The company declared a dividend of HKD 0.356 per share for 1H25, maintaining a payout ratio of 23.4%, which is consistent with the previous year [1] Renewable Energy Growth - The company added 4.8 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 1H25, aiming for a total of 10 GW of new installations by 2025 [1][2] - As of June 2025, renewable energy capacity is expected to account for 49.9% of the total installed capacity [2] Pricing and Cost Dynamics - The on-grid electricity prices for wind and solar energy decreased by 11.0% and 6.1% respectively, to HKD 0.3968 and HKD 0.3049 per kWh [2] - The unit fuel cost for coal-fired power generation decreased by 3.52 cents per kWh to HKD 0.2413 per kWh [1] Market Outlook and Valuation - The target price for the company's shares is set at HKD 25.49, with a "buy" rating maintained [2] - Adjustments were made to profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with a decrease of 13.7% to 15.7% in expected profits [2]

Macro Insights - The economic growth rate in August is expected to be supported by exports and consumption policies, despite a significant slowdown in the real estate sector, with a target of 5% annual growth remaining achievable [1][15][12] - The industrial added value in July grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector showing resilience, particularly in high-tech products and equipment manufacturing [12][13] - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 12% [13][14] Strategy Insights - Current channels for resident capital entering the market include increasing financing balances and active personal investor accounts, leading to a positive feedback loop in the market [2] - The "anti-involution" market trend can be analyzed through policy expectations and real-world transmission, indicating a shift from theme-driven to profit-driven market dynamics [2] - The technology and small-cap sectors are expected to continue outperforming as more external funds enter the market [2] Industry Reports - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to see significant opportunities with the upcoming release of new products, particularly in AI-related applications [8] - The coal mining industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in fundamentals, with the price of thermal coal expected to rise [8] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs, is projected to maintain a positive outlook due to improved profitability [8]

转自：推广 文丨赵鑫原 吴晓琦 张阳阳 为深入学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，推动党建工作与业务发展深度融合，8月22 日，"晋心向党 先锋筑梦"山西省党建品牌交流活动在山西省太原市举行。 中粮可口可乐饮料（山西）有限公司、华润电力忻州公司、山西省人民医院、山西教育音像出版社、山 西省甘肃商会、山西省环境评价与咨询协会、鹏飞集团、晋南钢铁集团、太原市原平商会、太原市苍南 商会、清徐县退役军人俱乐部等10余家单位代表齐聚一堂，通过品牌推介、经验分享、专题研讨等形 式，共话党建创新路径，共促党建水平提升。 党建品牌齐聚 展现多元实践风采 "晋心向党 先锋筑梦"山西省党建品牌交流活动x现场。（图片来源：杨晓飞/摄） 华 润电力北方大区党委委员、副总经理李伯华正在分享党建经验。（图片来源：界面山西） 活动现场，各单位立足行业特色，分享了党建品牌建设的鲜活实践。中粮可口可乐饮料（山西）有限公 司以"红立方驿站"为抓手，通过与上下游企业党建共建实现合作共赢，其"党建引领产业链协同"模式获 评"山西综改示范区先进基层党组织"；华润电力忻州公司打造"润欣"党建品牌，以"1+3+N"党建管理矩 阵推动能源保供、乡村振 ...

大和发布研报称，华润电力(00836)中期业绩逊于预期，纯利同比跌16%，中期息下降22%至0.356元， 派息率为23%。公司股价已在公布业绩后下挫。该行提到，华润电力今年的股息率已降至4.8%，很大程 度上落后于同业华能国际（600011）电力股份(00902)，后者今年股息率超过6%。同业中，该行继续偏 好华能国电，予其"跑赢大市"评级，但维持华润电力的"持有"评级，目标价由19.5港元下调至17.5港 元，降2025至27年盈测8%至9%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，华润电力(00836)中期业绩逊于预期，纯利同比跌16%，中期息下 降22%至0.356元，派息率为23%。公司股价已在公布业绩后下挫。该行提到，华润电力今年的股息率已 降至4.8%，很大程度上落后于同业华能国际电力股份(00902)，后者今年股息率超过6%。同业中，该行 继续偏好华能国电，予其"跑赢大市"评级，但维持华润电力的"持有"评级，目标价由19.5港元下调至 17.5港元，降2025至27年盈测8%至9%。 ...