Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction volume in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. Second-hand housing transactions in 11 cities also saw a week-on-week decrease of 7% but a year-on-year increase of 174% [6][21][27]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: the decline in new housing demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,270.717 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,217.136 billion yuan [2]. Sales Performance - In the sixth week, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 170 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 147% [22][21]. - The average daily transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a total transaction area of 199 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 174% [27][30]. Policy News - Fujian Province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu Province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, investment in leading shopping centers, and monitoring leading real estate agencies for efficiency improvements [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant stock movements in the Hong Kong and US markets, driven by strategic partnerships, positive financial reports, and market trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Group 2 - Ocean Group (01991) saw a surge of over 13.3% after announcing a strategic partnership with CONSCIOUSNESS FOUNDATION LTD. to establish a joint venture focused on AI smart hardware, marking a significant step in its AI strategy [1]. - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with Melco International Development (00200) up 5.49% and Sands China (01928) up 3.26%, supported by a 24% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming revenue for January [1]. - China Energy Storage (02399) increased by over 9.2% following its announcement to acquire 100% of Wuzhong Ruichu Technology for RMB 64 million [2]. - The real estate sector showed recovery, with Sunac China (01918) rising 8.2% as market confidence improved in January [3]. - Gold stocks collectively rose, with China’s gold reserves increasing to 74.19 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 15 months [4]. - In the US market, Lexin Fintech (LX.US) rose 6.04% amid a broader market rally, with the Dow Jones reaching a historic high of 50,115.67 points [5]. - SpyGlass Pharma (SGP.US) debuted on the US market with a 65% increase, focusing on chronic eye disease treatments [6]. - Bitcoin-related stocks rebounded significantly, with Strategy (MSTR.US) up 26.11% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate stocks continue to rise, indicating a recovery in market confidence and a stabilization in the real estate sector as of January 2026 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Sunac China (01918) increased by 7.38%, trading at HKD 1.31 [1] - CIFI Holdings (00884) rose by 7.06%, trading at HKD 0.091 [1] - R&F Properties (02777) saw a gain of 5.36%, trading at HKD 0.59 [1] - Vanke Enterprises (02202) climbed by 5.18%, trading at HKD 3.86 [1] Group 2: Market Trends - In January 2026, the national real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with improved market confidence [1] - According to CRIC, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in 13 key cities reached approximately 8.1 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year growth of 33% [1] Group 3: Policy Insights - Longjiang Securities reported that the policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, although downward pressure has increased since April of last year [1] - The probability of easing industry policies is gradually increasing, indicating strategic significance for improving and stabilizing market expectations [1] - Current stock positions are near the bottom, with limited premium, and market valuation increases provide room for a rebound [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the Chinese real estate stocks continue to rise, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Sunac China (up 7.38%), CIFI Holdings (up 7.06%), R&F Properties (up 5.36%), and Vanke (up 5.18%) [1] - As of January 2026, the national real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with improved market confidence [1] - According to CRIC data, the transaction volume for second-hand homes in 13 key cities in January was approximately 8.1 million square meters, representing a month-on-month increase of 16% and a year-on-year growth of 33% [1] Group 2 - Recent policy measures include Shanghai's initiation of purchasing second-hand housing for rental housing projects and Foshan's allowance for real estate project delays and reduction of corporate penalties [1] - Longzhong Securities reports that the policy goal of stabilizing the market has significantly boosted market expectations, although there are increasing downward pressures since April of last year [1] - The current stock prices are relatively close to the bottom, with limited premium, and the market valuation increase provides room for a rebound [1]

| 封单占成交 | 8.09% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最高到单量 | 47.2万 | | | | | 涨停成交量 | 43.2万 | | | | | 3-06- | 14.37 14.6万 | ਐੱ | | | | 买2 | 14.36 7717 | ऋ३ | 3762 | | | 14.35 | | | | | | 24 | 750 | 14.34 | ਜ਼ੋਟ | | | 515 | 14.33 | | | | | 分时成交 ▲ | | | | | | 14:56 | 14.37 | 127 | -10.03% | 11.75 | | 14.37 | 14:56 | 47 | 成交量▼ 180.6万 分时量:4336↑ | 现量:4336 | | 396 | 14:56 | 14.37 | 17.4万 | | | 14.37 | 38 | 14:56 | | | | 14.37 | 55 | 14:56 | | | | 31 | 14:56 | 14.37 | | | | 14.37 | 36 | 14:57 | CHIP PUST TAL | ...

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions are COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), Dongfang Electric (01072), and Vanke Enterprises (02202), with short ratios of 18.70%, 16.91%, and 16.66% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in short positions are Ganfeng Lithium (01772), Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050), and CATL (03750), with increases of 2.04%, 1.63%, and 1.51% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions are Kanglong Chemical (03759), Aneng Logistics (09956), and Changfei Optical Fiber (06869), with decreases of -1.71%, -1.68%, and -1.01% respectively [1][3] Group 2 - The latest short position data shows that COSCO Shipping Holdings has 516 million shares short, up from 511 million shares previously, while Dongfang Electric has 68.99 million shares short, down from 70.83 million shares [2] - The companies with the largest short position increases include Ganfeng Lithium, which rose from 7.67% to 9.70%, and Sanhua Intelligent Control, which increased from 5.76% to 7.39% [2] - The companies with the largest short position decreases include Kanglong Chemical, which fell from 5.35% to 3.64%, and Aneng Logistics, which dropped from 2.68% to 1.00% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The "delivery difficulties" in China's real estate sector have been largely resolved, with over 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing expected to be delivered by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, effectively dismantling the most dangerous chain of "unfinished projects - loan defaults - supply disruptions" and temporarily alleviating systemic financial risks [2][10][11]. Group 1: Delivery Achievements - Major real estate companies have reported significant progress in housing delivery, with Country Garden delivering approximately 1.85 million units, while other firms like Greenland, Sunac, and Centaline have also achieved tens of thousands of deliveries [3][6]. - Greenland Holdings announced that its residential projects will deliver over 8 million square meters in 2025, translating to around 80,000 units based on an average size of 100 square meters per unit [6]. - Sunac Group's delivery from 2022 to 2025 is projected to exceed 720,000 units, indicating a robust recovery in the delivery of housing projects [6][11]. Group 2: Systemic Risk Mitigation - The resolution of delivery issues is attributed to a coordinated effort among national, provincial, and municipal levels, ensuring accountability among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions [7][10]. - The implementation of targeted measures, such as financing support for viable projects and expedited bankruptcy processes for insolvent ones, has significantly reduced buyer concerns regarding unfinished projects [7][10]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Future Directions - The successful resolution of delivery challenges has restored buyer confidence, which is crucial for stabilizing the real estate market and preventing further declines [11]. - Future strategies include promoting the sale of existing homes and enhancing the quality of housing, with a focus on risk management and sustainable development in the real estate sector [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The "delivery difficulties" risk in the real estate industry has been largely resolved, with many real estate companies reporting significant progress in fulfilling their delivery commitments by 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Delivery Progress - As of the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing have been delivered nationwide, with major companies like Country Garden delivering about 1.85 million units [1][3]. - Greenland Holdings announced that its residential projects will deliver over 8 million square meters by 2025, translating to around 80,000 units [2]. - Sunac Group reported cumulative deliveries of over 720,000 units from 2022 to 2025, indicating that its delivery work is nearing completion [2]. Group 2: Risk Mitigation and Policy Direction - The national "delivery guarantee" task is set to be fully completed by 2025, with a delivery rate of 99% for the 3.96 million units targeted [3]. - The government has implemented a systematic risk mitigation action over the past three years, involving collaboration across various levels of government and the real estate sector [4]. - Recent policies emphasize stabilizing the market and transitioning to high-quality development, moving away from the "high leverage, high turnover" model [1][8]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - With the completion of large-scale delivery tasks, real estate companies are shifting focus towards debt resolution, asset management, and revitalizing existing land [6][7]. - Companies like Country Garden and Sunac have made substantial progress in debt restructuring and reorganization [6]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, addressing previous issues of high debt and leverage [8][9]. Group 4: Market Stabilization - Despite overall sales not fully stabilizing, some key cities have shown signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a potential market rebound [10]. - The central economic work conference has outlined clear directives for 2026, focusing on risk stabilization and market support [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The "delivery difficulty" risk in the real estate industry has been largely resolved, with many real estate companies reporting significant progress in fulfilling their delivery commitments by 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Delivery Progress - As of the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing have been delivered nationwide, with major companies like Country Garden delivering around 1.85 million units [1][3]. - Greenland Holdings announced that its residential projects will deliver over 8 million square meters in 2025, translating to about 80,000 units, with cumulative deliveries from 2022 to 2024 reaching approximately 760,000 units [2]. - Sunac Group reported cumulative deliveries of over 720,000 units from 2022 to 2025, indicating that its delivery work is nearing completion [2]. Group 2: Risk Mitigation and Policy Direction - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting confirmed that the delivery tasks will be fully completed by 2025, with a delivery rate of 99% for the 3.96 million units targeted [3]. - A systematic risk mitigation action has been ongoing for about three years, with collaboration among national, provincial, and municipal levels to ensure responsibilities are met [4]. - The focus has shifted towards debt resolution, asset management, and revitalizing existing land, as many companies begin to recover their "self-sustaining" capabilities [6][7]. Group 3: Future Development Model - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and transition to a new development model, moving away from high leverage and high turnover [8][9]. - The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to promote high-quality development in real estate, addressing risk prevention and enhancing housing supply structures [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development plans to solidify foundational systems in development, financing, and sales, gradually implementing a "see-and-buy" sales system [9]. Group 4: Market Recovery Signals - Despite the overall real estate sales not fully stabilizing, some key cities have shown early signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by strong fundamentals and better supply structures [10].

Core Insights - The issue of "delivery difficulties" in the real estate sector, which once caused market panic, is gradually becoming a thing of the past as many real estate companies report their housing delivery data for 2025, indicating that the delivery work is nearing completion [1][3][4]. Group 1: Delivery Progress - By the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 7.5 million units of "sold but undelivered" housing have been delivered nationwide, with Country Garden delivering about 1.85 million units [1][4]. - Greenland Holdings announced that it expects to deliver over 8 million square meters of residential projects in 2025, translating to around 80,000 units, following previous deliveries of 260,000, 280,000, and 140,000 units from 2022 to 2024 [3]. - Sunac Group reported cumulative deliveries of over 720,000 units from 2022 to 2025, with the delivery work nearing completion [3]. Group 2: Industry Recovery - With the pressure of delivery alleviated, the real estate sector is entering a new phase of industry recovery [2]. - The national housing and urban-rural development meeting confirmed that the delivery tasks for 2025 have been fully completed, with a delivery rate of 99% for the 3.96 million units targeted in the "guaranteed delivery" campaign [4]. - The financial support for projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, facilitating smooth construction and delivery [4]. Group 3: Risk Mitigation - The past three years have seen a systematic risk mitigation effort, with collaboration among national, provincial, and municipal work teams to ensure accountability among local governments, real estate companies, and financial institutions [5]. - The implementation of targeted policies has significantly reduced concerns about project delays, with many previously troubled projects now successfully delivered [5][8]. - Experts indicate that real estate risks have notably subsided, with a shift in focus for many companies towards debt resolution, asset management, and revitalizing land holdings [6][7]. Group 4: Market Stability - There are signs of stabilization in housing prices, particularly in first-tier cities, which lays a solid foundation for market recovery and rebuilds confidence in the industry [8]. - The reduction in project suspensions and the increase in timely and high-standard deliveries have effectively safeguarded buyers' rights, contributing to a more stable market environment [8].