机构：国信证券 研究员：曾光/张鲁/杨玉莹 酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应，海内外均缔造千亿市值龙头。酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应（前端网络效 应，后端规模效应），美国龙头依托全服务国际化品牌溢价市值领先，中国有限服务龙头背靠中国经济 与创新模式快速跃升。 行业趋势：周期调整底部供需有望再平衡，供给结构性改革为成长主旋律。 酒店行业正处两年调整底部，后续供需关系有望再平衡：休闲旅游稳健增长、商旅需求基数走低；龙头 储备店较高位回落，经营策略从OCC 优先转向最优RevPAR 推动价格企稳。长周期看，中国服务消费 占比46%仍处提升通道，对标美国1980 年代住宿支出占比持续提升。供给端结构性机遇凸显：租金红 利弱化下加盟商回归投资属性，估算连锁化率从40%（美国72%）提升至60-70%对应30-109%房量空 间；其中龙头参考海外TOP5 市占率存翻倍潜力。 华住模式：穿越周期二十年，"产品-流量-回报-规模"模型重新定义有限服务酒店业。华住上市15 年门 店与业绩CAGR 均超20%，背靠创始人与管理层战略远见与数字化高效组织，公司开创出一条中国特色 有限服务酒店业的成长飞轮：1）强产品：经济型到中高端多品牌高效迭 ...

12月18日，华住集团"绿色住"项目入选新京报"2025年度十大绿色发展案例"。在资源消耗高、能耗控制难、减碳压力持续加大的酒店行业，该案例的入选 并非偶然。这是一项"嵌入"日常运营体系的系统性实践。"绿色住"通过尊重消费者的个性化决策，将低碳、节水、减耗自然融入住宿流程，酒店得以把环 保主张转化为可感知、可参与的体验。在其过程中，住宿也成为承载价值观与生活方式的消费行为。 成立20年来，华住集团持续将可持续理念纳入企业治理与运营体系，从住客体验、加盟商成本到供应链与门店执行，形成了可复制、可持续的运行机制。 国际权威指数机构MSCI(明晟)最新ESG评级显示，华住集团评级已由"BBB级"提升至"A级"，折射出其在ESG体系建设与落地执行方面的阶段性进展。 在"双碳"目标与绿色转型的大背景下，如何在保持规模与效率的同时降低能耗，已成为酒店行业必须直面的现实课题。华住集团的探索，为这一问题提供 了一个基于真实运营条件的实践样本。 小选项，大影响：隐藏在酒店订单里的低碳秘密 在华住会APP的订单页面，有一个小选项——"绿色住"。它并没有被突出提示，也没有跳出提醒，而是与早餐、延迟退房等选项并列出现。对许多住客而 ...

如果说稳健的财务与卓越的运营是一家企业的内在价值基石，那么其在资本市场上的表现与行业竞争格 局中的位势，则是这种价值最直接的外部印证。 2025年以来，华住集团(01179，HTHT.US)美股股价稳步走高，并于12月12日盘中突破48美元，创下 2022年以来新高。资本市场的积极反馈，不仅是对公司近一年经营表现的认可，更彰显了投资者对其清 晰商业生态构建路径与长期发展潜力的坚定信心。这种认可并非偶然，而是源于华住在业绩增长、战略 落地与生态升级等多方面的扎实积淀，其战略转型不断获得资本与行业的双重肯定。 近期，诸多券商对华住集团的评级呈现高度一致性乐观，摩根大通、中金、华泰、国信证券等头部机构 均出具更新报告，纷纷给予华住"增持"或"买入"等投资评级。 | 券商机构 | 投资评级 | 目标价(每股) | | --- | --- | --- | | 大和 | 跑赢大市 | 跑赢大市 | | 車場 | 跑赢大市 | 51美元 | | 中金公司 | 跑赢行业 | 53美元 | | 华泰证券 | 买人 | 42.9港元 | | 国泰海通 | 增持 | 46.61港元 | | 海運国际 | 优于大市 | 41 港元 ...

国信证券发布研报称，维持华住集团-S(01179)"优于大市"评级，酒店行业依托供需飞轮效应持续成长， 当前周期调整底部有望迎来供需再平衡。以华住为例，其通过"产品-流量-回报-规模"模型构建成长飞 轮，凭借多品牌矩阵、超3亿会员的强流量与领先回报率驱动规模扩张。未来将通过门店下沉、中高端 品牌升级及轻资产模式进阶，实现市占率与盈利中枢同步提升，长期成长空间可期。 国信证券主要观点如下： 需求复苏不及预期；行业竞争恶化；中高端培育不及预期等。 穿越周期二十年，"产品-流量-回报-规模"模型重新定义有限服务酒店业 华住上市15年门店与业绩CAGR均超20%，背靠创始人与管理层战略远见与数字化高效组织，公司开创 出一条中国特色有限服务酒店业的成长飞轮：1)强产品：经济型到中高端多品牌高效迭代，汉庭逆势成 长、全季中端领先、桔子错位发展，满足差异化客群需求；2)强流量：会员规模突破3亿居行业首位， 中央预订占比超60%叠加大数据强化系统性收益管理；3)强回报：同店RevPAR领先同业30-80%，人房 比0.17，供应链降本超20%，驱动加盟商投资意愿；4)规模强势扩张：加盟门店增速维持15-20%。 价值重估三段 ...

酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应(前端网络效应，后端规模效应)，美国龙头依托全服务国际化品牌溢价市值 领先，中国有限服务龙头背靠中国经济与创新模式快速跃升。 周期调整底部供需有望再平衡，供给结构性改革为成长主旋律 国信证券主要观点如下： 酒店行业具备供需飞轮效应，海内外均缔造千亿市值龙头 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，维持华住集团-S(01179)"优于大市"评级，酒店行业依托供需 飞轮效应持续成长，当前周期调整底部有望迎来供需再平衡。以华住为例，其通过"产品-流量-回报-规 模"模型构建成长飞轮，凭借多品牌矩阵、超3亿会员的强流量与领先回报率驱动规模扩张。未来将通过 门店下沉、中高端品牌升级及轻资产模式进阶，实现市占率与盈利中枢同步提升，长期成长空间可期。 风险提示 需求复苏不及预期；行业竞争恶化；中高端培育不及预期等。 酒店行业正处两年调整底部，后续供需关系有望再平衡：休闲旅游稳健增长、商旅需求基数走低；龙头 储备店较高位回落，经营策略从OCC优先转向最优RevPAR推动价格企稳。长周期看，中国服务消费占 比46%仍处提升通道，对标美国1980年代住宿支出占比持续提升。供给端结构性机遇凸显：租金红利弱 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The hotel industry is experiencing a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving significant market capitalizations. The industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand rebalancing and structural reforms driving growth [1][21] - The company's growth model, which has been effective for over 20 years, emphasizes a "product-traffic-return-scale" cycle, showcasing strong product offerings, substantial membership growth, and efficient cost management [2][3] - The long-term outlook includes a three-phase value reassessment narrative focusing on store expansion, brand upgrades, and model evolution, with projections for significant increases in mid-to-high-end hotel numbers by 2030 [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The hotel industry is currently at a cyclical adjustment bottom, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and leading companies' pricing strategies. The supply side is expected to undergo structural reforms, enhancing growth opportunities [21][24] - The demand side is projected to grow steadily, with leisure travel maintaining resilience and business travel gradually recovering. The overall hotel demand is expected to stabilize as supply expands [24][39] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030. Brand upgrades are anticipated to enhance profitability and valuation [3][4] - The company's model is evolving towards a light-asset approach, which is expected to support stable cash flows and shareholder returns exceeding 5% [3][4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 44.4 billion CNY for 2025, increasing to 58.6 billion CNY by 2027, with a corresponding rise in earnings per share [5][4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the company is projected to be between 43 and 45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4][6]

大消费行业主题报告 20251217 摘要 新消费需求涌现，推动大消费板块发展，体现在新产品（个性化、绿色 低碳）、新渠道（零食连锁、折扣业态）和新业态（多元消费场景）三 个方向，并受"十五五"规划支持。 传统消费行业预计 2026 年回暖，居民购买力释放，行业调整修复。食 品饮料行业企稳，白酒基本面或稳定，乳制品有望快速修复。关注提振 就业、增收稳预期等政策措施。 大宗商品市场前高后低，国家出台多维度促销政策提振服务性消费和内 需，商务部等部委发布扩大服务性消费政策意见，旨在通过提升居民生 活质量激发内需潜力。 社会服务领域，旅游出行和美妆零售酝酿变化，消费者转向理性性价比 和精神追求。携程、华住等头部企业通过技术创新和营销满足新兴旅游 需求，中国中免海南业务受益于离岛免税新政。 食品饮料板块筑底企稳，白酒基本面筑底，大众消费具韧性，估值低位。 零食板块业绩分化，新产品红利释放。乳制品需求平稳，供给逐渐出清。 餐饮供应链景气度回升，预制食品龙头竞争优势凸显。 Q&A 2026 年大消费行业的整体趋势和主要推动因素是什么？ 2026 年作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，预计消费刺激政策将持续落地，有 效释放居民消 ...

Group 1: Global Hotel Industry Trends - The Middle East has emerged as the hottest hotel market globally, with Qatar's average room rate and RevPAR reaching their highest levels since 2013, increasing by 19.6% and 20.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - During the Doha Film Festival on November 24, the overall market occupancy rate peaked at 94.2%, the highest since February of this year [2] - In Saudi Arabia, Marriott International signed a management agreement for the Courtyard by Marriott in Mecca, marking a milestone of over 100 hotels in operation and development in the country [2] Group 2: Asia-Pacific Market Developments - In Singapore, two legacy hotels are rebranding to international chains, with a notable acquisition of the Miramar Hotel for 160 million SGD to transform it into a Hilton Garden Inn [4] - Hilton announced plans to expand its luxury and lifestyle hotel brands in Southeast Asia, signing 17 new hotel projects across six countries, adding nearly 4,000 rooms [4] - In Australia, Melbourne's hotel market achieved record highs in ADR and RevPAR, with RevPAR increasing by 8.6% year-on-year, driven by major events [5] Group 3: Personnel Changes in Hotel Groups - Eight hotel groups announced significant personnel changes, including the appointment of three new Vice Presidents for Greater China at InterContinental Hotels Group [7] - Kempinski Hotels appointed Paul Lonergan as Chief Operating and Asset Management Officer to drive performance and asset optimization [7] - Wyndham Hotels announced the departure of its CFO Michele Allen, with Kurt Albert appointed as interim CFO [7] Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions in Hotel Groups - Junting Hotels approved a cash acquisition of a 21% stake in Zhejiang Junlan Hotel Management for 79.8 million CNY, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [10] - Marriott International completed the integration of its brand and asset-light business with Another Star, the parent company of citizenM hotels, which will continue to operate under a long-term franchise agreement [10] Group 5: Hotel Asset Transactions - In November, 82 hotel assets were reported for sale, with significant transactions including the sale of two Wanda Hotels for 3.31 billion CNY and 3.28 billion CNY [12] - The Ritz-Carlton in Sanya is listed for sale at 2.265 billion CNY, marking it as the first Ritz-Carlton in a resort area in China [12] - Beijing's Le Meridien Hotel is publicly listed for sale at 3 billion CNY, while the CHAO Hotel in Sanlitun has a starting bid of approximately 1.177 billion CNY [12] Group 6: Hotel Openings and Signings in China - In November, 236 new hotels opened in China, with 29 in the high-end segment, including 20 international brands [14] - A total of 105 hotels were signed, showing a significant increase from the previous month, with notable signings from InterContinental and Wyndham [15] - The construction market in China remains strong, with 3,695 projects totaling 656,873 rooms planned as of the end of Q3 [16] Group 7: Luxury Hotel Rankings and Analysis - The ABN Index for luxury hotels shows high search and new media indices, with Shangri-La Hotels leading the rankings [20][28] - The average score for the search index was 61.32, with top searches focused on hotel openings and acquisitions [28] - The media index saw a slight decline, averaging 108.94, with marketing themes centered around Christmas and New Year events [28]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]