Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The service consumption in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, currently at approximately 30% compared to 70% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [1][2] - The new policies aim to enhance service consumption, particularly in the cultural and tourism sectors, with local governments actively improving service quality [1][2] Key Policy Insights - Five major increments in the new policy include: 1. Optimizing student holiday arrangements to explore spring and autumn breaks, benefiting tourism [1][4] 2. Encouraging IP collaborations to promote cross-industry partnerships [1][4] 3. Linking sports events with cultural tourism to boost consumer engagement [1][4] 4. Promoting AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce and education [1][4] 5. Regulating non-academic training institutions to encourage market-oriented vocational training [1][4] Impact on Specific Sectors - **Tourism and Hospitality**: - The expansion of the visa-free entry policy is expected to significantly boost inbound tourism, particularly benefiting major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, as well as OTA platforms and hotels [3][9][12] - **Cultural and Sports Events**: - The policy encourages the introduction of international sports events and supports local sports activities, which will benefit event organizers and related industries, enhancing investor expectations [1][6] - **Education and Training**: - The new regulations for non-academic training institutions will favor companies like New Oriental and others in the vocational training sector [7][8] Financial and Economic Support - The government plans to utilize central budget investments and local special bonds to support cultural tourism and elderly care facilities, which will attract social capital investment [13] - Financial tools will be employed to increase credit availability, directly benefiting companies involved in consumer lending, such as Chongqing Department Store [13] Additional Considerations - The adjustment of student holiday schedules is anticipated to increase tourism frequency while alleviating congestion during peak seasons [11][12] - The integration of AI in service sectors is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, indicating a significant trend in future consumption development [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the travel industry, particularly on Ctrip, with a target price of $82 based on a 20x PE for 2026 N-GAAP OP of 20.851 billion RMB [4]. Core Insights - The global travel market has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant increase in inbound tourism driven by visa-free policies, showing a 15.8% year-on-year growth in inbound visitors in the first half of 2025 [3][7]. - The hotel industry is facing an oversupply, with a supply growth rate of 11.8% in the first half of 2025, leading to a potential 2-3 year period for inventory digestion [3][11]. - Ctrip is focusing on enhancing hotel efficiency and creating new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The importance of membership ecosystems is emphasized, as loyalty programs significantly influence the travel behavior of the new generation of travelers [3][7]. - AI applications in the travel industry are on the rise, with over 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning, although concerns about data security and decision transparency remain barriers [3][15]. Summary by Sections Global Travel Market - The global travel market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with online penetration rates continuing to rise. Inbound tourism saw a 15.8% increase in visitor numbers in the first half of 2025, with visa-free visitors growing by 53.9% [3][7]. - The demand for outbound travel is also recovering, with short-haul outbound travel increasing by 38.1% and long-haul by 22.3% [3][7]. Hotel Industry - The hotel industry is experiencing oversupply, with a 11.8% growth in hotel supply in the first half of 2025. Ctrip's CEO suggests that it may take 2-3 years to digest this inventory [3][11]. - Major hotel groups like Huazhu, Jinjiang, and Shoulv are focusing on deepening domestic market operations, with Huazhu making progress in Southeast Asia [3][11]. Ctrip - Ctrip is implementing strategies to help hotels improve efficiency and create new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in overseas markets to capture the spending mindset of inbound foreign tourists [4]. Membership Ecosystem - The loyalty programs are increasingly influential among younger travelers, with 15-20% of the younger generation willing to spend more for membership upgrades [7]. AI Applications - AI is being increasingly utilized in the travel industry, with 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning. However, issues like data security and decision transparency are still significant concerns [15].

Group 1 - The government has introduced 19 specific measures to boost service consumption, focusing on enhancing service supply and attracting foreign consumers [1][3] - The measures cover a wide range of industries, including internet, culture, telecommunications, sports events, education, and high-end healthcare, indicating a favorable policy environment for these sectors [1][3] - The emphasis is on addressing the supply-side shortage of quality services through financial support and policy adjustments, which is expected to invigorate the service consumption market [1][2] Group 2 - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,668 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [2] - The overall consumption trend remains positive, with expectations for further policy support to boost consumption, potentially increasing the annual growth rate of retail sales to around 4.5% [2][4] - Analysts suggest a shift in policy focus from physical investments to experience-based service consumption, highlighting the importance of government support for service supply [4] Group 3 - Companies like Huazhu Group and Trip.com are expected to benefit from the recovery in tourism consumption, with Huazhu's EBITDA projected to grow by 5% to 1.5 billion yuan [5] - Trip.com anticipates a revenue growth of 12%-17% in 2025, benefiting from policies aimed at attracting foreign consumers [5] - Hong Kong Travel and China Duty Free are positioned to gain from inbound tourism and enhanced duty-free shopping opportunities, with potential increases in visitor numbers and sales [6]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry faces significant challenges in supply chain efficiency and trust, which are exacerbated by the increasing rate of chain operations and standardization. Huazhu Group has introduced the "Nine Commitments" to address these structural issues and enhance brand consistency and franchisee confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Nine Commitments Overview - Huazhu Group's "Nine Commitments" include promises such as "genuine product sales," "on-time delivery with compensation for delays," and "price guarantees," aiming to create a transparent and reliable supply chain [1][3]. - The commitments are supported by a comprehensive system of quality standards, fulfillment mechanisms, and pricing models to ensure a dynamic balance between quality, price, and service [1][3]. Group 2: Mechanism Design and Implementation - The "Nine Commitments" aim to move beyond traditional supply chain models by integrating institutional mechanisms, digital systems, and platform governance to reshape the service model in the hotel supply chain [2][3]. - Specific delivery timelines are established, such as non-customized operational materials to be delivered within 7 days, and customized materials within 15 days, with penalties for delays to enhance supplier efficiency [2][3]. Group 3: Quality and Price Mechanisms - Huazhu has implemented a "30-day price difference refund and all-network price comparison" rule to protect franchisees from price fluctuations, ensuring better procurement value [3][5]. - A "30-day exchange and platform pre-compensation" mechanism is established for after-sales service, clarifying responsibilities and improving efficiency [3][5]. Group 4: Trust Mechanism and Supplier Management - The "Nine Commitments" serve as a trust signal to franchisees, suppliers, and end consumers, built on Huazhu's 20 years of experience in hotel scale, product standards, and platform governance [5][7]. - Huazhu has set higher-than-national standards for supplier entry, ensuring quality control and enabling mechanisms like "pre-compensation" and "genuine product guarantees" [5][7]. Group 5: Industry Impact and Future Directions - The implementation of the "Nine Commitments" addresses key pain points in the hotel industry, providing franchisees with greater certainty in pricing, delivery, quality, and after-sales service, allowing them to focus on store operations and service improvement [7][8]. - This initiative positions Huazhu as a potential industry benchmark, demonstrating that supply chain platforms can enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and elevate standardization levels, which are critical for long-term competitiveness [7][8].

Core Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance within the social services sector, with leading companies outperforming their peers [5][7] - The overall revenue for the service consumption sector increased by 1.4% year-on-year in 1H2025, reaching 134% of 2019 levels, while profits declined by 11.5%, recovering to 79% of 2019 levels [12][15] - Key segments such as K12 education, human resources, and scenic areas showed both revenue and profit growth, while hotels, restaurants, tourism retail, and higher education faced challenges [12][13] Social Services Overview - In 1H2025, K12 training and human resources sectors saw revenue growth of 14.4% and 10.7%, respectively, with net profits increasing by 39.5% and 49.8% [12][15] - Scenic areas also reported growth, with revenues up by 3.9% and net profits by 2.4% [15] - Conversely, the hotel sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.5% and a significant profit drop of 40.6% [13][15] Travel Services - The hotel industry remains under pressure, with leading hotels like Huazhu Group and Shoulv Hotel showing resilience despite a decline in RevPAR [16][19] - In 1H2025, leading hotels continued to expand, with Huazhu adding 990 new hotels [16][18] - OTA companies benefited from overall travel demand, with significant growth in overseas business [7][24] Scenic Areas and OTA - Domestic tourism numbers surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with a 20.6% increase in travel volume in 1H2025 [24] - Scenic area performance varied, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiuhua Tourism showing strong growth, while Changbai Mountain faced challenges due to weather [29] - The average ticket price for domestic travel has not fully recovered, remaining at 95% of 2019 levels [24] Professional Services - The human resources sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with companies like Keri International and BOSS Zhipin performing well [7][16] - The education sector, particularly K12 training, continues to thrive, with a focus on AI applications enhancing efficiency [7][16] - The exhibition industry is awaiting macroeconomic improvements to boost performance [7][16] Restaurant and Tea Beverage Sector - The restaurant industry is under pressure, with same-store sales declining, while budget-friendly dining options are showing resilience [7][12] - The tea beverage sector is expanding, with leading brands like Mixue and Gu Ming performing exceptionally well [7][12]

Group 1: Policy and Market Trends - The tourism market in Guangdong is experiencing a surge due to favorable policies and the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with the provincial government issuing 23 measures to enhance inbound tourism [1] - The Ministry of Commerce has launched platforms to promote consumption, and various cities are providing subsidies and vouchers to stimulate tourism spending [1][2] - The upcoming "Golden Week" from October 1 to 8 is expected to see a significant increase in travel bookings, with a 130% year-on-year rise in the number of travelers [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Booking Trends - There is a notable increase in early bookings for the National Day holiday, particularly for outbound travel, with popular domestic destinations including Beijing, Shanghai, and Sanya [3] - Domestic flight bookings have surpassed 3.26 million, reflecting a 26% increase compared to the previous year, while international flight bookings have also risen by 15% [3] Group 3: Market Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that China's inbound tourism retail market will grow over threefold from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion by 2034, increasing its share of the overall tourism retail market from 10% to 25% [3] - The rise of Chinese consumer electronics and brands like Pop Mart is expected to attract tourists and boost shopping demand, supported by favorable policies for tax-free shopping [4] Group 4: Company Performance - Ctrip Group reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, with a growing market share and efficient marketing investments, leading to an upgraded target price [5] - Huazhu Group's second-quarter revenue increased by 4.52% year-on-year, with a significant rise in net profit, indicating strong operational performance [6] - China Duty Free Group's earnings forecasts have been adjusted downward due to weak demand, but future sales are expected to improve with the opening of Hainan Free Trade Port [6]

Group 1 - The upcoming "Golden Week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival will last for 8 days, leading to a surge in travel bookings, with some popular routes already sold out [1] - Consumers are planning their trips earlier than in previous years, with a preference for domestic long-distance travel products, and a diverse range of travel experiences such as deep experience tours and cultural exploration tours are emerging to meet varied consumer demands [1] - The United Nations World Tourism Organization forecasts a 5% year-on-year increase in global international tourist arrivals in the first half of 2025, with approximately 690 million outbound trips recorded in the first half of this year, an increase of about 33 million compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley projects that China's inbound tourism retail market will grow over threefold in the next decade, from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion by 2034, increasing its share of the overall tourism retail market from 10% to 25% [2] - The rise of globally recognized brands and improved shopping experiences are key drivers for this growth, with Chinese consumer electronics and brands like Pop Mart attracting tourists and stimulating shopping demand [2] - Policy support is expected to enhance duty-free and tax refund shopping, benefiting domestic retailers, shopping centers, and duty-free operators [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong-listed travel-related stocks include online travel agencies like Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, as well as companies in the tourism supply chain such as Macau sector stocks, China Travel International Investment Hong Kong, and China Duty Free Group [3]

Group 1 - The upcoming "Golden Week" during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival is expected to see a surge in travel bookings, with some popular products already sold out [1] - Consumers are planning their trips earlier than in previous years, showing a preference for domestic long-distance travel products, and a diverse range of travel experiences is emerging to meet varied consumer demands [1] - The United Nations World Tourism Organization forecasts a 5% increase in global international tourist arrivals in the first half of 2025, with a total of approximately 690 million outbound trips recorded in the first half of this year, marking an increase of about 33 million compared to last year [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley projects that China's inbound tourism retail market will grow over threefold in the next decade, from $14 billion in 2024 to $60 billion by 2034, increasing its share of the overall tourism retail market from 10% to 25% [2] - The rise of globally recognized brands and improved shopping experiences are key drivers for this growth, with Chinese consumer electronics and brands like Pop Mart attracting tourists and stimulating shopping demand [2] - Domestic retailers, shopping centers, and duty-free operators in China are expected to benefit significantly from policy support aimed at enhancing tax-free and refund shopping experiences [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong stocks in the tourism sector include online travel agencies like Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, as well as companies in the tourism industry chain such as Macau-related stocks, China International Travel Service, and Huazhu Group [3]

Core Insights - The travel industry is experiencing significant profit differentiation, with leading companies like Ctrip and Huazhu showing strong performance, while traditional players like Overseas Chinese Town are struggling [2][3]. Industry Overview - Among 38 listed travel companies, 29 reported profits, while 9 incurred losses, indicating a strong overall profitability in the sector [3]. - Ctrip leads the industry with a revenue of 28.714 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.21%, and a net profit of 9.194 billion yuan, up 11.94% [4][6]. Company Performance - China Duty Free Group follows Ctrip with a revenue of 28.151 billion yuan, down 9.96%, and a net profit of 2.599 billion yuan, down 20.81%, affected by market fluctuations [6]. - Huazhu Group reported a revenue of 11.821 billion yuan, a 3.46% increase, and a net profit of 2.438 billion yuan, a significant rise of 41.25% [6]. - Tibet Tourism and Guilin Tourism turned profitable with net profit increases of 181.22% and 141.94%, respectively, due to increased visitor numbers and recovery of past debts [7]. Sector Analysis - The OTA segment shows strong growth, with Ctrip, Tongcheng Travel, and Tuniu all achieving double-digit revenue growth, highlighting market recovery [10]. - Scenic area companies face challenges due to increased competition and reliance on ticket sales, which may not meet evolving consumer demands [11]. - Hotel companies like Huazhu continue to thrive, while others like Jinjiang Hotels and Huatian Hotels face declines due to market conditions [17][18]. Conclusion - The travel industry is at a crossroads, with leading companies leveraging supply chain management and digital transformation to maintain competitive advantages, while struggling firms must innovate and optimize operations to survive [18].

Group 1: Consumer Market Overview - The overall vitality of the consumer market is improving, with a 5% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods in the first half of the year, reaching 24.55 trillion yuan [1][2] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52%, indicating that consumer spending is a key driver of economic growth [1][2] - The core CPI has shown a continuous upward trend, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [1][2] Group 2: Emotional Consumption Trends - Emotional consumption has become a significant trend, with the emotional consumption market expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2025, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 12% since 2013 [4][11] - Companies like Pop Mart have seen substantial revenue growth from emotional products, with LABUBU generating 4.81 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of the year, contributing to Pop Mart's total revenue of 13.88 billion yuan, a 204.4% increase year-on-year [7][5] - Other companies in the emotional consumption space, such as MINISO, are also adapting their strategies to capture this market, with their sub-brand TOP TOY achieving 740 million yuan in revenue, a 73% increase [8] Group 3: Traditional Consumption Decline - Traditional consumption categories, particularly in the liquor and high-end tea sectors, are experiencing declines, with many companies reporting negative growth in revenue and profit [10][12] - The white liquor industry saw a 5% decrease in revenue and a 7.5% drop in net profit in the second quarter of 2025, with only a few companies maintaining positive growth [10] - The high-end tea market is also struggling, with companies like Tianfu Tea reporting a 17.1% decline in revenue [10] Group 4: Impact of Economic Conditions on Consumer Behavior - Economic uncertainties have led to a cautious consumer sentiment, with many individuals opting for cost-effective options and prioritizing emotional value in their purchases [12][13] - The trend of "old consumption" is fading, as younger consumers focus on personal satisfaction rather than social status, leading to a shift in spending patterns [9][11] - The overall consumer sentiment is reflected in the decline of high-end dining and entertainment, with many consumers opting for more affordable alternatives [17][18] Group 5: Investment and Housing Market Dynamics - The real estate market is facing challenges, with a 11.2% decline in real estate development investment in the first half of 2025, and a 3.5% drop in new housing sales [25][26] - Consumer confidence in real estate has diminished, leading to a decrease in housing purchases and a shift towards investments in stocks and gold [27][29] - The stock market has seen increased activity, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing good liquidity, indicating a shift in investment preferences among consumers [27][29]