酒店专家交流 20251008 摘要 2025 年国庆期间，连锁酒店 ADR 提升主要归因于消费者对连锁品牌信 任度高、酒店集团定价策略稳定以及家庭出行偏好。中高端酒店如亚朵、 希尔顿欢朋表现突出，经济型酒店中汉庭优势明显。 国庆预订高峰集中在 10 月 1 日至 4 日，峰值较去年延长一天。行业 RevPAR 同比转正预计需等到 2026 年下半年，受签约放缓、行业出清 及需求旺盛等多重因素影响。 预计 2026 年下半年酒店供给侧将减少，单体酒店和部分连锁老旧门店 面临经营压力。华住和亚朵成翻牌首选，因其出租率稳定，吸引业主提 升流量。 商务客人需求绝对值增长，但占比下降。行业已现出清现象，单体酒店 受影响较大。全季投资回报率最佳，周期约 4 至 4.5 年，汉庭经济型酒 店表现突出。 华住、锦江等头部集团持续扩张，但全国酒店供给在华北、华东、华南 及部分西南核心城市趋于饱和，贵阳、昆明、新疆、宁夏等地仍有缺口。 Q&A 今年国庆期间酒店行业的整体表现如何？ 今年国庆期间（2025 年 10 月 1 日至 7 日），酒店行业整体表现超出预期。华 住集团的平均每日房价（ADR）为 393 元，同比去年增长 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：真灼财经） 来源：凯基证券 2025 年国庆黄金周期间，中国旅游消费需求展现出明显韧性。全国出行量按年提升，尤其东部城市如 上海、南京表现突出，旅客量显著增长，反映区域需求强弱分化。天气因素导致南部及西部表现略逊， 但自驾出行及景区游热度持续提升，带动酒店入住率明显改善，局部地区酒店 RevPAR 创新高。 消费层面，零售及餐饮企业于假期录得稳健增长，反映消费理性且更偏向中高端体验。品牌及规模企业 在行业竞争下更具抗压力，于区域消费动能改善时展现更强业绩弹性。短途游及一日游成为主流，部分 传统热门旅游地如海南受天气影响复甦进展缓慢。 华住集团作为行业龙头，布局密集于需求旺盛地区，黄金周期间入住率及每房收益录得大幅提升，全面 受益于旅游复甦。结合集团高效营运与多品牌组合优势，预期将在内需消费结构升级中持续巩固领先地 位。 ...

北京商报讯（记者 吴其芸）9月30日，华住集团旗下高端人文度假品牌花间堂北京天安门·御道店正式开业。据悉，酒店坐落于北京中轴线南段，定位高端度 假酒店，将在地文化与现代旅宿深度融合。华住集团公布的数据显示，截至2025年二季度，花间堂品牌在营酒店已近百家、客房近5000间，待开业酒店200 家。 华住集团永乐华住事业部CEO梁尚兵表示，未来，花间堂将继续探索文旅融合的商业路径，通过每一个优质酒店项目，将"文化体验+高端住宿"的模式推向 更广阔的市场。 据介绍，在功能空间上，花间堂北京天安门·御道店延续"一店一特色"的理念，为不同客群提供兼具文化品位与实用价值的体验场景。其中，多功能会议 室"太和"借鉴故宫太和殿"天地和谐"理念，以新中式宫廷风打造商务空间；儿童乐园"堂趣"取材故宫纹样与节气文化，为3—12岁儿童营造沉浸式互动体 验；24小时开放的城市会客厅"怡和"则融合了东方园林与都市社交功能。 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday is driving a surge in travel bookings, with Tuniu reporting a week-on-week increase in travel product reservations for the holiday period [1] - Domestic travel bookings are particularly strong, with self-driving and free travel products seeing over 60% week-on-week growth, while group travel bookings have increased by over 50% [1] - Hotel and homestay bookings are also on the rise, with Huazhu Group reporting a 3 percentage point increase in overall booking rates compared to last year, with first-tier cities like Beijing leading the way [2] Group 2 - The "拼假" (Pinyin: pīn jià) trend is contributing to increased travel interest, with a 26% year-on-year rise in bookings for travel products from September 26 to September 28 [3] - Popular destinations are seeing significant increases in hotel search and booking volumes, particularly in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as lesser-known locations [3] - Tujia reported a 10% year-on-year increase in homestay bookings from September 27 to September 30, with a notable proportion of "post-00s" travelers [3] Group 3 - Flight prices for certain routes are at "floor prices," making them attractive for travelers, with one-way tickets from Beijing to Urumqi priced just over 1,000 yuan [4] - Meituan Travel identified the top 10 destinations for the holiday, including Hainan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan, with some flights experiencing price drops [4] - Despite some price reductions, overall flight prices for the holiday period remain higher than last year [4][6] Group 4 - Popular domestic routes are maintaining high prices as the holiday approaches, with specific routes like Shanghai to Kunming priced at 1,200 yuan and Beijing to Sanya at 2,698 yuan [5][6] - Airlines are dynamically adjusting ticket prices based on real-time sales and inventory, leading to some price drops before the holiday [4][6]

Core Insights - The upcoming extended holiday in 2025 is driving an increase in hotel bookings, with H World Group reporting a year-on-year rise in overall booking rates as of September 23 [1][2] - H World Group has initiated a "Service Quality Assurance Action" to enhance customer experience during peak travel times, leveraging various member benefits such as the "Price Guarantee" [1][3] Group 1: Booking Trends - Hotel booking rates for the "Double Festival" period have surpassed last year's figures across various city tiers, with first-tier cities like Beijing leading the way [2] - Coastal cities and regions in Guangxi have shown particularly strong booking performance, with cities like Dalian, Tianjin, and Guilin among the top [2] - High-end brand hotels are experiencing increased booking rates, with brands like Huajian Tang and Songpin leading, while economy brands like Haiyou and Hanting also see significant growth [2] Group 2: Marketing and Service Initiatives - H World Group has implemented a digital response system and standardized service manual to address key service areas such as check-in, hygiene, and dining, ensuring efficient service during peak times [3] - The "Price Guarantee" service under the H World membership program alleviates customer price concerns by offering refunds for price drops and compensation for higher prices [3][4] - Targeted promotional activities are being conducted in various cities, including discounts for early bookings and themed campaigns to encourage travel to specific destinations [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming "super long golden week" during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in 2025 is expected to drive increased consumer travel demand [1] - As of September 23, hotel booking rates for the "Double Festival" period have increased by 3 percentage points compared to last year, with all city tiers showing growth [1] - Beijing continues to lead in hotel booking rates among first-tier cities, surpassing Shenzhen and Shanghai by 6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Coastal cities such as Dalian, Tianjin, Yantai, Qingdao, and Rizhao are experiencing high hotel booking rates, with Guangxi's cities like Liuzhou, Guilin, Beihai, Chongzuo, and Baise showing significant increases [1] - High-end brand hotel bookings are rising, with Huazhu Group reporting leading booking rates for brands like Huajian Tang and Songpin, while brands like Mercure and Shijia also show significant year-on-year growth [1] - Economy and national brands remain popular among guests, with Haiyou brand hotels seeing a 5 percentage point increase and Hanting brand hotels seeing a 4 percentage point increase in bookings compared to last year [1] Group 3 - Initial travel demand during the short holiday period is strongest, with hotel booking rates peaking on October 2 [2] - To prepare for the travel peak, Huazhu Group has launched a "Service Quality Assurance Action," focusing on key service areas such as check-in, hygiene, and breakfast [2] - The company is implementing a digital response system and standardized service manual to monitor potential issues like parking and lobby congestion, ensuring efficient and smooth service [2]

Group 1 - H World Group Limited has signed three new JI Hotels in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and Phnom Penh, Cambodia [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [4] Core Insights - The core value of AI in hotels lies in systematic cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, focusing on optimizing cost structures and resource allocation rather than just self-service at the front desk. AI can lower labor and energy costs through demand forecasting, dynamic pricing, and automated scheduling, while continuously releasing efficiency dividends in supply chain, equipment maintenance, and inventory management. Policy support and technological maturity will drive small and medium-sized hotels to follow suit, enhancing overall industry operational efficiency [3][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global hotel AI market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% from 2020 to 2027, driven by the dual demand for customer experience upgrades and cost optimization. Applications such as smart front desks, self-check-in, dynamic pricing, and voice interaction meet guests' preferences for "contactless and personalized" services while significantly reducing labor and energy costs [7]. Key Players and Innovations - Leading hotel groups are achieving cost reduction and efficiency gains, with revenue management and smart rooms as breakthrough areas. For instance, Huazhu's "new front desk model" reduces check-in time to as fast as 10 seconds, while Shoulv's "AI digital store manager" provides traffic forecasting and dynamic pricing for nearly 7,000 hotels, enhancing RevPAR and operational efficiency. Atour leverages its ACARD membership system and "smart experience rooms" for facial recognition check-in [7]. Future Development - The future penetration of AI in the hotel industry will accelerate, focusing on three key areas: building intelligent middle platforms to integrate PMS, RMS, and CRM systems for cross-system data collaboration; naturalizing interactions through virtual customer service and digital humans for a more immersive experience; and expanding applications to security, cleaning, marketing, and refined member operations. With ongoing policy support, technological advancements, and capital investment, AI is expected to become the "infrastructure" for hotels to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness, driving long-term benefits in cost structure optimization and service quality improvement [7].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The service consumption in China is significantly lower than in developed countries, currently at approximately 30% compared to 70% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [1][2] - The new policies aim to enhance service consumption, particularly in the cultural and tourism sectors, with local governments actively improving service quality [1][2] Key Policy Insights - Five major increments in the new policy include: 1. Optimizing student holiday arrangements to explore spring and autumn breaks, benefiting tourism [1][4] 2. Encouraging IP collaborations to promote cross-industry partnerships [1][4] 3. Linking sports events with cultural tourism to boost consumer engagement [1][4] 4. Promoting AI applications in various sectors such as e-commerce and education [1][4] 5. Regulating non-academic training institutions to encourage market-oriented vocational training [1][4] Impact on Specific Sectors - **Tourism and Hospitality**: - The expansion of the visa-free entry policy is expected to significantly boost inbound tourism, particularly benefiting major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, as well as OTA platforms and hotels [3][9][12] - **Cultural and Sports Events**: - The policy encourages the introduction of international sports events and supports local sports activities, which will benefit event organizers and related industries, enhancing investor expectations [1][6] - **Education and Training**: - The new regulations for non-academic training institutions will favor companies like New Oriental and others in the vocational training sector [7][8] Financial and Economic Support - The government plans to utilize central budget investments and local special bonds to support cultural tourism and elderly care facilities, which will attract social capital investment [13] - Financial tools will be employed to increase credit availability, directly benefiting companies involved in consumer lending, such as Chongqing Department Store [13] Additional Considerations - The adjustment of student holiday schedules is anticipated to increase tourism frequency while alleviating congestion during peak seasons [11][12] - The integration of AI in service sectors is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, indicating a significant trend in future consumption development [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the travel industry, particularly on Ctrip, with a target price of $82 based on a 20x PE for 2026 N-GAAP OP of 20.851 billion RMB [4]. Core Insights - The global travel market has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with a significant increase in inbound tourism driven by visa-free policies, showing a 15.8% year-on-year growth in inbound visitors in the first half of 2025 [3][7]. - The hotel industry is facing an oversupply, with a supply growth rate of 11.8% in the first half of 2025, leading to a potential 2-3 year period for inventory digestion [3][11]. - Ctrip is focusing on enhancing hotel efficiency and creating new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The importance of membership ecosystems is emphasized, as loyalty programs significantly influence the travel behavior of the new generation of travelers [3][7]. - AI applications in the travel industry are on the rise, with over 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning, although concerns about data security and decision transparency remain barriers [3][15]. Summary by Sections Global Travel Market - The global travel market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, with online penetration rates continuing to rise. Inbound tourism saw a 15.8% increase in visitor numbers in the first half of 2025, with visa-free visitors growing by 53.9% [3][7]. - The demand for outbound travel is also recovering, with short-haul outbound travel increasing by 38.1% and long-haul by 22.3% [3][7]. Hotel Industry - The hotel industry is experiencing oversupply, with a 11.8% growth in hotel supply in the first half of 2025. Ctrip's CEO suggests that it may take 2-3 years to digest this inventory [3][11]. - Major hotel groups like Huazhu, Jinjiang, and Shoulv are focusing on deepening domestic market operations, with Huazhu making progress in Southeast Asia [3][11]. Ctrip - Ctrip is implementing strategies to help hotels improve efficiency and create new demand scenarios, such as inbound tourism and performance markets [3][4]. - The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in overseas markets to capture the spending mindset of inbound foreign tourists [4]. Membership Ecosystem - The loyalty programs are increasingly influential among younger travelers, with 15-20% of the younger generation willing to spend more for membership upgrades [7]. AI Applications - AI is being increasingly utilized in the travel industry, with 64% of consumers having used AI for travel planning. However, issues like data security and decision transparency are still significant concerns [15].