浦银国际研究 公司研究 | 消费行业 华住集团（1179.HK/HTHT.US）：境内业 务高基数下增长放缓，上调开店指引 2Q24 在高基数下达成收入指引上沿：尽管面对高基数影响，华住集 团 2Q24 仍达成了公司的收入增长指引的上沿（营收同比增长 7%- 11%）。2Q24 集团营收为人民币 61.5 亿元，同比增长 11.2%，不包括 境外业务（Legacy DH）营收同比增长 11.1%。2Q24 经调整归母净利 润实现 12.5 亿元，同比增长 16.9%。 境内经营指标有所转弱，但好于市场：华住集团 2Q24 境内业务 （Legacy-Huazhu）RevPAR 为 244 元，同比下降 2%。其中，ADR 同比 下降 3%，主要是由于上年爆发式出行以及酒店行业供给不足拉高了 基数，而公司 OCC 同比提升 0.7ppt，抵消了部分 ADR 下降的负面影 响。管理层表示，今年 7-8 月在市场 RevPAR 下降 10%的情况下，华 住 RevPAR 同比仅下降中个位数，跑赢市场。我们认为，在高基数、 恶劣天气和宏观环境不振的情况下，酒店行业 2024 年 RevPAR 同比 下降的趋势较难逆转， ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月22日 华住集团-S（01179.HK） 优于大市 二季度经调整净利润增长 17%，上修全年开店指引 2024 年第二季度收入增速处此前指引上限，经调整净利润同增 17%。2024Q2， 公司收入 61 亿元/+11.2%，处指引上限（7-11%）；其中来自境内华住的收 入 48.3 亿元/+11.1%（此前指引 7-11%）；DH 收入 13.2 亿元/+11.6%。Q2 归 母净利润 10.67 亿元/+5.1%，经调整净利润 12.54 亿元/+16.9%，经调整 EBITDA 20.4 亿元/+15.1%，国内/海外经调整 EBITDA 各+14.0%/35.1%。 第二季度公司国内 REVPAR 同比-2%，环比走弱，但仍优于行业平均。2024Q2， 境内综合 RevPAR 同比-2%，其中 ADR-2.9%，OCC+0.7pct；同店 RevPAR -3.6%； 环比 Q1 综合/同店+3.1%/+0.9%走弱。但参考酒店之家等行业数据，2024Q2 国内酒店 REVPAR 下滑约 7-8%左右，公司 Q2 同店 RevPAR 在高基数下仍优于 行业整体，彰显公司 ...

证券研究报告 港股公司|公司点评|华住集团-S（01179） 收入处于指引上限，上调全年开店目标 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年08月21日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营收分别为 242.4/260.5/280.3 亿元，对应增速分别为 10.7%/7.6%/7.6%；归母净利润分别为 42.5/49.1/56.7 亿元，3 年 CAGR 为 11.6%，对应 PE 分别为 15x/13x/11x。鉴于公司龙头地位稳定，品牌、运营实力强劲，国内门店下沉、品牌向 上与全球化仍有较大空间，维持"增持"评级。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 曹晶 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590523080001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 5 港股公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年08月21日 华住集团-S(01179) 收入处于指引上限，上调全年开店目标 | --- | --- | |------------|-------------------| | 行 业： | 社会服务/酒店餐饮 | | 投资评级： ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q2 revenue slightly exceeded guidance with an 11.2% YoY growth, driven by the turnaround of overseas business DH, contributing to a net profit of RMB 1.067 billion, up 5% YoY [3] - Mainland business revenue grew 11.1% YoY, contributing RMB 1.033 billion in net profit, while DH segment revenue grew 11.6% YoY, turning a profit of RMB 34 million compared to a loss of RMB 174 million in the same period last year [3] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was RMB 2 billion, up 11% YoY, and adjusted net profit was RMB 1.25 billion, up 17% YoY [3] - Mainland store openings exceeded expectations, with 10,150 stores by the end of Q2 2024, up 18% YoY, and a record high of 3,258 reserve stores [3] - RevPAR declined 2.4% YoY in Q2 due to a high base, with Q3 revenue growth guidance of 2-5% [3] - The company announced a USD 1 billion share repurchase plan over five years in July [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 23.945 billion in 2024E to RMB 28.845 billion in 2026E, with a CAGR of 9.43% to 9.74% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 3.702 billion in 2024E, RMB 4.068 billion in 2025E, and RMB 4.484 billion in 2026E [2] - EPS is expected to be RMB 1.15 in 2024E, RMB 1.27 in 2025E, and RMB 1.40 in 2026E [2] - P/E ratios are projected at 17.91x for 2024E, 16.30x for 2025E, and 14.79x for 2026E [2] Mainland Business Performance - Mainland store count reached 10,150 by Q2 2024, with 94% being franchised stores [3] - Q2 saw 567 new store openings and 466 net openings, with the full-year new store target revised upward from 1,800 to 2,200 [3] - Mainland room count reached 974,000, up 19% YoY, with franchised rooms accounting for 889,000, up 21.6% YoY [3] RevPAR and Revenue Guidance - Q2 RevPAR was RMB 244, down 2.4% YoY, with occupancy rate (OCC) at 82.6%, up 0.8 ppts YoY, and ADR at RMB 296, down 3.0% YoY [3] - Q3 revenue growth is guided at 2-5%, with RevPAR expected to decline by high single digits [3] Market Data - Closing price: HKD 22.55 [5] - 52-week low/high: HKD 20.80/HKD 36.30 [5] - P/B ratio: 5.75x [5] - Market cap: HKD 72.394 billion [5] Financial Ratios - ROIC: 16.32% in 2023A, projected to be 16.87% in 2024E [8] - ROE: 33.66% in 2023A, expected to decline to 18.38% by 2026E [8] - Gross margin: 34.46% in 2023A, projected to remain stable around 35.57-35.77% from 2024E to 2026E [8]

Hotel Operations and Performance - H World Group's total operating hotels reached 10,286, with 1,001,865 operating rooms as of June 30, 2024[2] - Legacy-Huazhu's occupancy rate in Q2 2024 was 82.6%, up from 81.8% in Q2 2023 and 77.2% in the previous quarter[5] - Legacy-Huazhu's blended RevPAR in Q2 2024 was RMB 244, compared to RMB 250 in Q2 2023 and RMB 216 in the previous quarter[5] - Same-store RevPAR for Legacy-Huazhu hotels operating for at least 18 months decreased by 3.6% YoY to RMB 248 in Q2 2024[5] - Legacy-DH operates 136 hotels with 27,552 rooms, including 16,789 leased rooms and 10,763 managed and franchised rooms as of June 30, 2024[6] - Legacy-DH's average daily rate (ADR) increased to €120 in Q2 2024, up from €117 in Q2 2023 and €104 in Q1 2024[6] - Legacy-DH's occupancy rate reached 68.3% in Q2 2024, compared to 67.1% in Q2 2023 and 55.8% in Q1 2024[6] - Legacy-DH's revenue per available room (RevPAR) was €82 in Q2 2024, up from €78 in Q2 2023 and €58 in Q1 2024[6] - The number of hotels in operation as of June 30, 2024, was 10,150, with a total of 974,313 rooms[38] - The company closed 101 hotels in Q2 2024, with 12 temporarily closed for brand upgrades or business model changes[39] - The company added a net of 466 hotels in Q2 2024, with 472 net additions from managed and franchised hotels[38] - Total number of hotels as of June 30, 2024, reached 10,150, with 3,266 hotels under development[40] - Average daily rate (ADR) for leased and owned hotels decreased by 2.2% year-over-year to RMB 375[40] - Occupancy rate for leased and owned hotels increased by 2.0 percentage points year-over-year to 85.6%[40] - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) for leased and owned hotels remained flat at RMB 321, showing a 0.1% year-over-year change[40] - Mature hotels (operating for over 18 months) saw a 3.6% year-over-year decline in RevPAR to RMB 248[42] - In Q2 2024, the company opened 5 new hotels and closed 2, resulting in a net increase of 3 hotels[43] - ADR in euros for leased hotels increased by 4.0% year-over-year to €124[45] - Occupancy rate in euros for leased hotels rose by 1.9 percentage points year-over-year to 71.2%[45] - RevPAR in euros for leased hotels grew by 6.8% year-over-year to €88[45] - The company's total hotel portfolio as of June 30, 2024, included 10,286 hotels with 1,001,865 rooms in operation and 3,294 hotels under development[47] - As of June 30, 2024, the company operates 5 Meilun Meixuan hotels and has 4 hotels under development in China[48] - As of June 30, 2024, the company operates 12 Steigenberger hotels and has 5 hotels under development in China[48] - As of June 30, 2024, the company operates 3 Steigenberger Grand hotels and has 1 hotel under development in China[48] Financial Performance and Metrics - Hotel turnover in Q2 2024 increased by 15.5% YoY to RMB 23.4 billion, with Legacy-Huazhu and Legacy-DH divisions growing by 16.2% and 7.8% respectively[2] - Q2 2024 revenue grew by 11.2% YoY to RMB 6.1 billion (USD 846 million), at the upper end of the previously announced guidance of 7% to 11% growth[2] - Net profit attributable to H World Group in Q2 2024 was RMB 1.1 billion (USD 147 million), compared to RMB 1.0 billion in Q2 2023 and RMB 659 million in the previous quarter[2] - Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) for Q2 2024 was RMB 2.0 billion (USD 280 million), up from RMB 1.8 billion in Q2 2023 and RMB 1.4 billion in the previous quarter[3] - Total revenue for Q2 2024 was RMB 6.148 billion (USD 846 million), a 11.2% YoY increase and 16.5% QoQ growth[7] - Legacy-Huazhu's revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 4.8 billion, a 11.1% YoY increase, driven by hotel network expansion[7] - Legacy-DH's revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 1.3 billion, a 11.6% YoY increase, due to business recovery and network expansion[7] - Revenue from managed and franchised hotels in Q2 2024 was RMB 2.334 billion, a 25.8% YoY increase[8] - Hotel operating costs in Q2 2024 were RMB 3.731 billion, a 7.1% YoY increase, primarily due to hotel network expansion[10] - Legacy-Huazhu's hotel operating costs in Q2 2024 were RMB 2.7 billion, accounting for 56.7% of revenue, down from 58.9% in Q2 2023[10] - Sales and marketing expenses for Q2 2024 were RMB 317 million (USD 44 million), compared to RMB 262 million in Q2 2023 and RMB 260 million in the previous quarter[12] - Legacy-Huazhu's sales and marketing expenses in Q2 2024 were RMB 193 million, accounting for 4.0% of revenue, up from 3.5% in Q2 2023[12] - Legacy-DH's sales and marketing expenses in Q2 2024 were RMB 124 million, accounting for 9.4% of revenue, compared to 9.2% in Q2 2023[12] - General and administrative expenses for Q2 2024 were RMB 602 million (USD 83 million), up from RMB 477 million in Q2 2023[12] - Operating profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 1.6 billion (USD 216 million), compared to RMB 1.4 billion in Q2 2023[14] - Legacy-Huazhu's operating profit margin in Q2 2024 was 31.0%, slightly down from 31.1% in Q2 2023[14] - Legacy-DH's operating profit margin improved to 5.5% in Q2 2024 from 3.0% in Q2 2023[14] - Net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited for Q2 2024 was RMB 1.1 billion (USD 147 million), up from RMB 1.0 billion in Q2 2023[16] - Legacy-Huazhu's net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited for Q2 2024 was RMB 1.0 billion, compared to RMB 993 million in Q2 2023[16] - Legacy-DH's net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited for Q2 2024 was RMB 34 million, up from RMB 22 million in Q2 2023[16] - 2024 Q2 EBITDA (non-GAAP) was RMB 1.9 billion (USD 255 million), compared to RMB 1.7 billion in Q2 2023 and RMB 1.3 billion in the previous quarter[17] - 2024 H1 EBITDA (non-GAAP) was RMB 3.2 billion (USD 436 million), compared to RMB 3.4 billion in H1 2023[17] - 2024 Q2 adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was RMB 2.0 billion (USD 280 million), compared to RMB 1.8 billion in Q2 2023 and RMB 1.4 billion in the previous quarter[17] - 2024 H1 adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) was RMB 3.5 billion (USD 476 million), compared to RMB 2.8 billion in H1 2023[18] - Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 11,426 million (USD 1,572 million), showing growth compared to the same period in 2023[30] - Operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 2,575 million (USD 354 million), reflecting an increase from the previous year[30] - Net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,726 million (USD 238 million), compared to RMB 2,005 million in the same period last year[31] - Earnings per share (basic) for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 0.55 (USD 0.08), compared to RMB 0.63 in the same period last year[31] - Total comprehensive income attributable to Huazhu Group Limited for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 1,671 million (USD 231 million), compared to RMB 2,247 million in the same period last year[31] - Net profit attributable to Huazhu Group for Q2 2024 was RMB 1,067 million (USD 147 million), compared to RMB 1,015 million in Q2 2023[34] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 2,040 million (USD 280 million), a significant increase from RMB 1,772 million in Q2 2023[35] - Total revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 6,148 million, with Legacy-Huazhu contributing RMB 4,828 million and Legacy-DH contributing RMB 1,320 million[36] - Legacy-Huazhu's adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 was RMB 1,909 million, while Legacy-DH's adjusted EBITDA was RMB 131 million[36] - Leased and owned hotels generated revenue of RMB 2,395 million for Legacy-Huazhu and RMB 1,286 million for Legacy-DH in Q2 2024[36] - Total revenue under US GAAP was RMB 11,426 million, adjusted to RMB 11,424 million under IFRS[51] - Operating costs under US GAAP were RMB 9,026 million, adjusted to RMB 8,909 million under IFRS[51] - Operating profit under US GAAP was RMB 2,575 million, adjusted to RMB 2,689 million under IFRS[51] - Net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited under US GAAP was RMB 1,726 million, adjusted to RMB 864 million under IFRS[51] - Comprehensive profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited under US GAAP was RMB 1,694 million, adjusted to RMB 904 million under IFRS[51] - Total operating costs and expenses amounted to RMB 7,473 million, with hotel operating costs being the largest component at RMB 6,076 million[52] - Net profit attributable to Huazhu Group Limited reached RMB 2,512 million, reflecting a strong financial performance[52] - The company reported a comprehensive profit of RMB 2,641 million, with a significant portion coming from fair value changes in convertible notes[52] - Interest expenses totaled RMB 923 million, influenced by lease adjustments and other factors[52] Cash Flow and Financial Position - 2024 Q2 operating cash inflow was RMB 2.2 billion (USD 307 million), while financing cash outflow was RMB 1.1 billion (USD 152 million)[18] - 2024 H1 operating cash inflow was RMB 3.1 billion (USD 430 million), compared to RMB 4.1 billion in H1 2023[18] - As of June 30, 2024, the company's cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 7.8 billion (USD 1.1 billion), with restricted cash of RMB 364 million (USD 50 million)[18] - Operating cash flow for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3,121 million (USD 430 million), a decrease from RMB 4,082 million in the same period last year[32] - Capital expenditures for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 484 million (USD 67 million), compared to RMB 393 million in the same period last year[32] - Net cash used in financing activities for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 3,363 million (USD 463 million), primarily due to debt repayments and share repurchases[33] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of June 30, 2024, were RMB 8,165 million (USD 1,123 million), compared to RMB 7,836 million at the end of June 30, 2023[33] - Share repurchases for the six months ended June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 676 million (USD 93 million)[33] - Debt repayments for the six months ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 429 million (USD 59 million)[33] Assets, Liabilities, and Equity - Total assets as of June 30, 2024, stood at RMB 62,452 million (USD 8,594 million), slightly lower than the RMB 63,532 million reported at the end of 2023[28] - Total liabilities decreased to RMB 49,735 million (USD 6,843 million) as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 51,283 million at the end of 2023[29] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 7,801 million (USD 1,073 million) as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 6,946 million at the end of 2023[28] - Net accounts receivable decreased to RMB 1,112 million (USD 153 million) as of June 30, 2024, from RMB 2,189 million at the end of 2023[28] - Total equity increased to RMB 12,717 million (USD 1,751 million) as of June 30, 2024, compared to RMB 12,249 million at the end of 2023[29] - Total assets stood at RMB 61,022 million, with property and equipment net of depreciation at RMB 5,649 million[53] - Total liabilities were RMB 50,801 million, including long-term debt of RMB 5,438 million[53] - Operating lease right-of-use assets decreased to RMB 23,159 million due to adjustments and impairments[53] - Total equity attributable to Huazhu Group Limited was RMB 10,086 million, impacted by adjustments and impairments[53] - The company's retained earnings showed a deficit of RMB 363 million, reflecting various adjustments and impairments[53] - Total current assets were RMB 11,486 million, with other net current assets contributing RMB 887 million[53] - Total assets under US GAAP amounted to RMB 63,532 million, while under IFRS, it was RMB 62,533 million[54] - Property and equipment net value under US GAAP was RMB 6,097 million, adjusted to RMB 5,855 million under IFRS[54] - Operating lease right-of-use assets under US GAAP were RMB 25,658 million, adjusted to RMB 23,580 million under IFRS[54] - Long-term investments under US GAAP were RMB 2,564 million, adjusted to RMB 2,859 million under IFRS[54] - Total current liabilities under US GAAP were RMB 17,411 million, adjusted to RMB 17,327 million under IFRS[54] - Non-current operating lease liabilities under US GAAP were RMB 24,215 million, adjusted to RMB 24,727 million under IFRS[54] - Total liabilities under US GAAP were RMB 51,283 million, adjusted to RMB 52,038 million under IFRS[54] - Total equity under US GAAP was RMB 12,249 million, adjusted to RMB 10,495 million under IFRS[54] Non-GAAP Financial Measures - The company uses non-GAAP financial measures, including EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, to evaluate performance, excluding equity incentive expenses, fair value changes in equity securities, foreign exchange gains/losses, and investment gains/losses[23][24] - EBITDA is considered a useful financial metric for evaluating operating and financial performance before the impact of financing and investment transactions and income taxes[23] - Adjusted EBITDA is used to assess the operating performance of the company's hotels, excluding items that may not reflect core operational results[23][24] - The company emphasizes that EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA are not substitutes for GAAP measures like net income or operating profit and should not be used in isolation for performance evaluation[25] - The company's non-GAAP financial measures are reconciled with GAAP financial measures in the appendix of the announcement[25] Shareholder Returns and Guidance - The company announced a three-year shareholder return plan with a total distribution of up to USD 2.0 billion, effective from July 23, 2024[19] - For 2024 Q3, the company expects revenue growth of 2% to 5% compared to Q3 2023, or 1% to 4% excluding DH[21] - The company raised its 2024 hotel opening guidance to over 2,200 hotels, up from the previous guidance of approximately 1,800 hotels[21] - H World expects Q3 2024 revenue growth of 2% to 5% YoY, or 1% to 4% excluding DH[3] - The company raised its 2024 hotel opening guidance to over 2,200 hotels, up from the previous guidance of approximately 1,800 hotels[3] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates 10,286 hotels with 1,001,865 operational rooms across 18 countries as of June 30, 2024[26] - 10% of the company's

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Huazhu Group, marking the first coverage of the company [6][16]. Core Views - Huazhu Group has established a competitive barrier through a combination of brand strength, technological innovation, and traffic management, positioning itself as a platform-based enterprise. The company has significant expansion potential both domestically and internationally, with a focus on middle and high-end markets [9][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huazhu Group, founded in 2005, has become one of the fastest-growing hotel groups globally, with a hotel count CAGR of 20.8% and revenue CAGR of 18.0% from 2013 to 2023. As of March 2024, the company operates 9,817 hotels with 955,700 rooms across 30+ brands in 18 countries [22][25]. Industry Update - The hotel industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with supply returning to pre-pandemic levels. By the end of 2023, the number of hotels in China had recovered to 96% of pre-pandemic levels, driven by sustained leisure demand and rational business travel recovery [9][59]. Core Advantages - Huazhu's competitive edge lies in its integrated approach of brand, technology, and traffic management. The company is well-positioned to capture market share as it continues to expand into smaller cities and enhance its brand portfolio through mergers and internal integration [9][14]. Key Highlights - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 242.4 billion, CNY 261.2 billion, and CNY 281.1 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 10.8%, 7.7%, and 7.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be CNY 42.5 billion, CNY 49.1 billion, and CNY 56.7 billion for the same years [16][12]. Financial Data and Valuation - The report anticipates a three-year CAGR of 8.7% for revenue and 11.6% for net profit, with price-to-earnings ratios of 16x, 14x, and 12x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [16][12]. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes Huazhu's ongoing expansion into lower-tier cities and its potential for upward brand migration, alongside a gradual internationalization strategy that is expected to enhance profitability [9][17].

海 外 研 证券研究报告 究 ＃industryId＃ 酒店出行 ＃investSuggestion＃ ＃ ＃01179 .HK ＃华dy住Com集pa团ny＃- S dyStockco investS 买入 ( u 维gg 持esti ） d e＃ 20 24Q1 开店＃ 快t 速itl ，e＃ 业 绩符合预期 onChan ge＃ ＃createTime1＃ 2024年 5月 23 日 投资要点 公 ＃市场ma数rk据et Data＃ ＃ ⚫ sum 维ma 持ry “＃买 入”评级：公司2024Q1经营指标保持平稳增长，净开店数量好于预期。休闲 司 日期 2024.5.22 旅游需求复苏持续带动公司 RevPAR恢复，同时公司主动积极发力B2B业务，商旅 跟 收盘价（港元） 29.05 业务能力优于行业。我们维持盈利预测，预计公司 2024E/2025E/2026E 营业收入为 踪 总股本（亿股） 32.10 241/259/279亿元人民币，同比增长10.0%/7.8%/7.6%；归母净利润为43/50/56亿元人 报 总市值（亿港元） 932.62 民币，同比增长 5.6%/15.5%/12.6%。 ...

Q1业绩亮眼，经营凸显韧性 ——华住集团-S 24Q1业绩点评 华住集团-S（1179.HK）/商 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年05月21日 社 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T增itle持] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：30.7港元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 13862 21882 24282 26429 28273 分析师：郑澄怀 增长率yoy% 57.9% 11.0% 8.8% 7.0% 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 归母净利润（百万元） -1821 4085 4234 5047 5824 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -324.3% 3.6% 19.2% 15.4% 每股收益（元） -0.58 1.31 1.36 1.62 1.87 每股现金流量 0.12 2.67 1.68 2.28 2.49 分析师：张友华 净资产收益率 -18.5% 39.2% 28.2% 24.7% 22.5% 执业证书编号：S07405231 ...

Q1业绩亮眼，经营凸显韧性 ——华住集团-S 24Q1业绩点评 华住集团-S（1179.HK）/商 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024年05月21日 社 [Table_Industry] [评Ta级ble：_T增itle持] （维持） [公Ta司ble盈_F利in预anc测e1及] 估值 市场价格：30.7港元 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 13862 21882 24282 26429 28273 分析师：郑澄怀 增长率yoy% 57.9% 11.0% 8.8% 7.0% 执业证书编号：S0740524040004 归母净利润（百万元） -1821 4085 4234 5047 5824 Email：zhengch@zts.com.cn 增长率yoy% -324.3% 3.6% 19.2% 15.4% 每股收益（元） -0.58 1.31 1.36 1.62 1.87 每股现金流量 0.12 2.67 1.68 2.28 2.49 分析师：张友华 净资产收益率 -18.5% 39.2% 28.2% 24.7% 22.5% 执业证书编号：S07405231 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q1 revenue exceeded guidance: Revenue for Q1 2024 reached 5.3 billion yuan, up 18% YoY, surpassing the guidance of 12-16% growth [3] - Net store openings accelerated: In Q1, the company opened 569 new stores, with a net increase of 421 stores, exceeding expectations [3] - RevPAR under pressure due to high base: Q1 RevPAR was 216 yuan, up 3% YoY, with a room rate of 280 yuan and an occupancy rate of 77.2% [3] - Q2 revenue growth guidance: The company expects Q2 revenue growth to be between 7-11% [3] Financial Performance - Revenue: 2024E revenue is projected at 23.97 billion yuan, with a YoY growth of 9.54% [2] - Net profit: 2024E net profit is forecasted at 3.79 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.28% YoY [2] - EPS: 2024E EPS is expected to be 1.18 yuan per share [2] - P/E ratio: The current P/E ratio is 23.68x for 2024E [2] Store and Room Metrics - Total stores: As of Q1 2024, the company had 9,684 stores, with 47% being mid-to-high-end brands and 94% being franchised [3] - Room count: The total room count reached 929,000, with franchised rooms accounting for 843,000, up 19.5% YoY [3] - Store pipeline: The company has a pipeline of 3,138 stores, with plans to open 1,800 stores and achieve a net increase of 1,150 stores in 2024 [3] Market Data - Closing price: The stock closed at HKD 30.65 [5] - Market cap: The company's market cap is HKD 98.4 billion [5] - P/B ratio: The P/B ratio is 8.02x [5] Financial Ratios - ROE: 2024E ROE is projected at 23.79% [8] - Gross margin: 2024E gross margin is expected to be 35.44% [8] - Net profit margin: 2024E net profit margin is forecasted at 15.80% [8] Historical Performance - 2023 revenue: 21.88 billion yuan, up 57.86% YoY [2] - 2023 net profit: 4.09 billion yuan, up 324.33% YoY [2] - 2023 EPS: 1.27 yuan per share [2]