Core Insights - Huazhu Group operates 12,702 hotels across 19 countries and over 1,500 cities, with a total of 1,246,240 rooms available [1] - The company encompasses over 30 well-known hotel and apartment brands, ranging from luxury to economy segments [1] - Huazhu Club, launched in 2012, has continuously innovated the industry standards, including the introduction of online self-service room selection and the monetization of points in 2013 [1] - The club is set to upgrade its offerings in 2024, including full point redemption for rooms and online free room upgrades, transforming uncertain benefits into certain experiences [1] Membership and Ecosystem - Huazhu Club has established a comprehensive ecosystem by integrating travel, events, cultural tourism, local life, and banking resources, creating a "stay + travel + entertainment + shopping" model [1] - The club has achieved three "global number one" rankings: over 300 million members, an average of 243 members per room, and a 74% member booking ratio, all leading the industry [1] - These metrics reflect Huazhu's 20 years of dedication to the accommodation sector and demonstrate the club's role in creating a quality lifestyle community that offers value beyond mere accommodation [1]

Core Viewpoint - H World Group (HTHT) has significantly outperformed its peers in the Consumer Discretionary sector this year, with a year-to-date return of approximately 46.8% compared to the sector average of 3.3% [4]. Company Performance - H World Group is currently ranked 9 in the Zacks Sector Rank among 264 companies in the Consumer Discretionary group [2]. - The Zacks Rank for H World Group is 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on earnings estimates and revisions [3]. - The consensus estimate for HTHT's full-year earnings has increased by 7% over the past quarter, reflecting improved analyst sentiment [3]. Industry Context - H World Group operates within the Hotels and Motels industry, which consists of 16 stocks currently ranked 161 in the Zacks Industry Rank [5]. - The Hotels and Motels industry has seen a decline of about 1% year-to-date, indicating that H World Group is performing better than its industry peers [5]. - In contrast, SharkNinja, Inc. (SN), another outperforming stock in the Consumer Discretionary sector, is part of the Consumer Products - Discretionary industry, which has decreased by 5.6% this year [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the shift in consumer preferences towards social and experiential accommodations, with the "hotel+" trend emerging as a new wave in the industry [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the total revenue of 51 listed cultural tourism companies in A-shares reached approximately 839.93 billion yuan, with a net profit of about 226 billion yuan, while Ctrip alone generated a revenue of 183.38 billion yuan and a net profit of 198.9 billion yuan, capturing 21% of the industry's revenue and 88% of its profits [5][6]. Industry Dynamics - The Chinese hotel industry is experiencing a structural reshuffle characterized by "total growth and structural differentiation," driven by market concentration among leading hotel groups and changing consumer preferences [6][8]. - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of accommodation facilities in China reached 570,000, with a total room capacity of 19.278 million, marking historical highs for both metrics [8]. Leading Hotel Groups - Jinjiang Group, as the largest hotel brand in China, has expanded its portfolio to 43 brands through acquisitions, with a high-end hotel room share of 69.79% and over 14,000 hotels globally [9]. - Huazhu has expanded its brand matrix to over 30 brands, with a total of 12,702 operating hotels and a significant contribution from its franchise business, which accounts for approximately 64.1% of its operating profit [11]. - Shoulv Home has 29 brands and over 7,500 hotels globally, with a franchise business share increasing from 89% in 2024 to 92.5% in Q3 2025, indicating a strong shift towards a light asset model [14][16]. Market Trends - The mid-range hotel segment is becoming a key driver of industry growth, with the chain rate for mid-range hotels increasing from 21.42% in 2018 to 55.33% in 2024 [18][22]. - The demand for high-end and mid-range hotels is rising, with the chain rate for high-end hotels slightly increasing to 55.33% [20]. Consumer Behavior - There is a notable shift in consumer preferences from traditional accommodation to lifestyle experiences, with younger generations favoring unique hotel designs and experiences over conventional services [26]. - The search interest for experiential stays, such as cultural and family-oriented activities, has surged, with a 50% increase in searches for cultural experience trips during the Dragon Boat Festival [27]. Challenges in the Industry - Despite growth in the number of hotels and rooms, the industry faces challenges such as homogenization and a disconnect between scale expansion and value creation [30]. - The reliance on traditional revenue streams and high customer acquisition costs through online travel agencies (OTAs) are significant issues, with many hotels still heavily dependent on room and dining revenues [31][33]. - The industry is experiencing a talent shortage, particularly in lower-tier cities, leading to inconsistent service quality across different hotel types [33].

Core Insights - High-end hotels are facing a survival crisis with an average occupancy rate of 58% and a 5% year-on-year decline in average room prices, prompting them to adopt new business models like street food stalls to attract customers [1] - The shift in consumer preferences from "price competitiveness" to "self-pleasure economy" indicates that consumers are willing to pay for emotional value, identity recognition, and spiritual resonance, pushing high-end hotels to establish deeper cultural and emotional connections with consumers [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The high-end hotel market is experiencing a transformation as young consumers are moving away from standardized services and traditional luxury, favoring products and services that align with their emotional needs and values [4][18] - The pet ownership trend is significant, with over 120 million pets in urban China by 2024, leading to a growing demand for pet-friendly accommodations, which many hotels currently restrict [4][6] Group 2: Company Strategies - Huazhu Group's brands, including Huajian Hall, Xiyue, Shibaige, and Meilun Meihuan, are successfully tapping into the trend by creating diverse living scenarios tailored to different consumer preferences, positioning hotels as extensions of self-pleasure rather than mere lodging [3][19] - The flagship Meilun Meihuan hotel in Shanghai has transformed its lobby into an art salon, achieving a remarkable increase in RevPAR from 366 to 1379, demonstrating the effectiveness of its renovation strategy [12][13] Group 3: Market Positioning - Huazhu has built a comprehensive brand matrix covering all hotel categories, with over 12,000 hotels in 19 countries, and aims to fill the gap in diverse consumer needs while avoiding homogenized competition [19][20] - The company is accelerating its international expansion, having acquired Deutsche Hotel Group, which allows it to leverage established European luxury brands to penetrate the global high-end market [20]

Summary of Huazhu Group Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is expected to see cyclical improvement by 2026, with RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) decline narrowing each quarter, driven by a rebalancing of supply and demand and robust growth in leisure travel demand. Service consumption policies will also boost leisure travel demand [2][6]. - The business travel market is stabilizing, with occupancy rates (OCC) having bottomed out, indicating potential for recovery. The investment payback period has extended to approximately 5 years due to declining average room prices (RAP) and rents, with a forecasted decrease in new store openings in 2026 [2][8]. Company Insights: Huazhu Group - Huazhu has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in store count and performance over the past 15 years, leveraging product iteration, standardized management, and strong member loyalty to create a unique growth flywheel. The company is actively expanding into the mid-to-high-end hotel sector, establishing a rich brand matrix [4][13]. - Huazhu's extensive store network and strong membership system allow it to reduce reliance on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) in the short term, showcasing its operational strength. The company’s dual flywheel model, which links network scale and member traffic, provides a competitive advantage even in adverse conditions [5][7]. Competitive Positioning - Leading companies like Huazhu hold a market share of 15%-20% in key regions such as Shanghai, granting them pricing power. The strategy has shifted from focusing on occupancy rates to optimizing average room prices, which helps stabilize overall industry pricing [9]. - The hotel industry remains fragmented, but leading firms are transitioning to a strategy that balances occupancy and pricing, as evidenced by Huazhu achieving positive growth in average daily rates (ADR) in Q3 [9]. Long-term Growth Potential - The long-term outlook for China's accommodation industry is positive, with a trend of upward penetration. Comparatively, China's per capita GDP is nearing that of the U.S. in 1981, indicating a high proportion of disposable income spent on accommodation and leisure travel [10]. - The potential for chain hotel development is significant, with estimates suggesting that increasing the chain rate from 46% to 60%-70% could yield growth rates of 30%-50% for hotels with over 30 rooms [11][12]. Strategic Development in Mid-to-High-End Market - Huazhu currently operates over 1,000 mid-to-high-end hotels, with revenue per room significantly higher than that of economy hotels. The company aims to increase the number of mid-to-high-end hotels to over 3,000, which would surpass the share of economy hotels in its overall business [15]. - The company is also collaborating with Didi to attract high-quality business travelers and is expected to optimize product offerings in the mid-to-high-end sector [14]. Valuation and Market Position - Huazhu is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24-25 times by 2026, reflecting both industry recovery and the company's growth trajectory. The hotel sector in A-shares is currently experiencing marginal improvements, with leading companies like Shoulv and Jinjiang already showing positive changes [17]. - The overseas hotel groups benefit from a light-asset model that allows for valuation premiums, and Huazhu is expected to follow a similar path, transitioning from low-end to high-end offerings while ensuring stable cash flow and shareholder returns [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the consumer services industry, anticipating that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [42]. Core Insights - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure policy is expected to significantly boost the tourism and hotel sectors, leading to a surge in market expectations for Hainan tourism. There has been a substantial year-on-year increase in flight and hotel bookings for the New Year and Spring Festival holidays, particularly in Sanya, where the demand for cross-year travel is notably high. The hotel and tourism sectors have shown strong performance, leading the consumer services industry, reflecting positive market expectations for the long-term benefits of the closure policy [4][34]. - The report identifies several key investment opportunities, including hotels with balanced supply and demand, human resource services with clear industry trends, the duty-free sector benefiting from new policies, and internet platforms integrating online and offline operations [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry consists of 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services industry experienced a weekly increase of 2.66%, outperforming the overall A-share market, which saw a decline of 0.15%. The CSI 300 index also fell by 0.28%, while the consumer services index rose by 3.76% [7][24]. - The report highlights that the hotel sector saw a weekly increase of 2.70%, while the tourism and scenic areas sector increased by 3.42% [18]. Notable Announcements - Key announcements include a report from Beijing Human Resources showing a shareholding reduction by a major shareholder and a significant increase in revenue and net profit for China Education Holdings [30][32].

Industry Overview - The hotel industry exhibits a supply-demand flywheel effect, with leading companies in both domestic and international markets achieving valuations in the hundreds of billions [1] - The industry is currently at a two-year adjustment bottom, with expectations for supply-demand relationships to rebalance, driven by structural reforms in supply [1] - The long-term outlook indicates that China's service consumption, currently at 46%, is still on an upward trajectory, similar to the trend observed in the U.S. in the 1980s [1] Company Insights - Huazhu's model has redefined the limited-service hotel sector over the past 20 years, achieving a CAGR of over 20% in both store count and performance [2] - The company has developed a growth flywheel characterized by strong products, robust traffic, high returns, and aggressive expansion [2] - Huazhu's membership base has surpassed 300 million, leading the industry, with over 60% of bookings coming from central reservations [2] Growth Outlook - The company is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economic and mid-range hotels by 2030 [3] - Brand upgrades are underway, with a focus on enhancing management, products, and membership, which could elevate profitability and valuation [3] - The company aims to adopt a light-asset model similar to overseas hotels, supporting stable cash flows and shareholder returns of over 5% [3] Investment Recommendations - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 are set at 4.44 billion and 5.17 billion yuan, respectively, with a slight upward revision for 2027 to 5.86 billion yuan [4] - The estimated reasonable stock price for the next year is projected to be between 43-45 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15-20% from the current price [4] - The company maintains an "outperform the market" rating, with expected performance in 2026 ranging from 5 to 5.4 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - Huazhu Group's "Green Stay" project has been recognized as one of the "Top Ten Green Development Cases of 2025" by Beijing News, highlighting its systematic approach to integrating low-carbon, water-saving, and resource-efficient practices into daily hotel operations [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Green Stay" initiative allows guests to make eco-friendly choices during their stay, such as opting not to change linens or have their rooms cleaned, which in turn earns them rewards points [2][6] - This option is available across major Huazhu brands, including All Seasons, Hanting, and others, and is designed to enhance guest experience while promoting sustainability [2][7] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The "Green Stay" selections are integrated into hotel management systems, ensuring accurate execution of guest preferences and reducing the risk of miscommunication [6][14] - This system addresses long-standing issues in the hotel industry related to environmental initiatives, making eco-friendly practices a standard part of operations [6][14] Group 3: Environmental Impact - The initiative has been implemented in approximately 9,000 Huazhu hotels nationwide, demonstrating its scalability and replicability [7] - The program has led to significant resource savings, including an estimated reduction of 1.176 million tons of carbon emissions and substantial water savings [10][14] Group 4: Broader Sustainability Strategy - Huazhu's sustainability efforts extend beyond the "Green Stay" project, incorporating eco-friendly materials and practices throughout its operations, including the use of recyclable materials in hotel construction [10][18] - The company has established a comprehensive ESG governance structure, integrating sustainability into its strategic decision-making and daily management [17][18] Group 5: Consumer Engagement - The "Green Stay" program effectively engages consumers by providing tangible rewards for eco-friendly choices, making sustainability a participatory experience [6][17] - This approach aligns with the preferences of younger consumers who value personalized experiences and environmental responsibility [6][17]

Core Viewpoint - H World Group's stock price has steadily increased since 2025, reaching a new high of over $48 on December 12, 2022, reflecting strong investor confidence in its business model and long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Position - H World Group has demonstrated solid operational performance, with revenue and business expansion exceeding market analyst predictions, indicating its ability to deliver on commitments even in complex environments [2] - Major brokerage firms, including JPMorgan, CICC, Huatai, and Guosen Securities, have issued optimistic ratings for H World Group, recommending "buy" or "overweight" [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The hotel industry is undergoing structural adjustments, with a clear trend of resources concentrating towards leading chain brands, enhancing the industry's chain rate [3] - H World Group, as an industry leader, has shown resilience during industry cycles, maintaining high occupancy rates and stable average daily rates (ADR) [4] Group 3: Strategic Advantages and Growth Drivers - H World Group possesses three competitive advantages: a robust brand, a strong membership system, and advanced technology, which support its operational resilience [6] - The company has built a competitive membership system with over 300 million members, leading to high direct sales and reduced reliance on OTA platforms [6][7] - H World Group's digital capabilities have created a positive cycle of cost reduction, efficiency enhancement, and improved user experience, which are crucial for navigating industry cycles [8] Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in lower-tier markets, where the chain rate is significantly lower compared to first and second-tier cities, presenting a substantial growth opportunity [9] - H World Group has made significant progress in the mid-to-high-end market, with over 1,600 mid-to-high-end stores opened or in the pipeline, marking a 25.3% year-on-year increase [11] - The company's long-term growth strategy is supported by its ability to adapt to market changes and enhance its brand portfolio, positioning it well for future expansion [14]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is expected to continue growing due to a supply-demand flywheel effect, with a potential rebalancing of supply and demand at the current cycle's adjustment bottom. Huazhu Group is positioned to leverage its multi-brand matrix and over 300 million members to drive scale expansion and profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing a two-year adjustment bottom, with a forecasted rebalancing of supply and demand. The leisure travel sector is showing steady growth, while business travel demand is declining. Leading companies are shifting their strategies from prioritizing occupancy to optimizing RevPAR to stabilize prices [2]. - The structural opportunities on the supply side are becoming more apparent, with the chain rate expected to increase from 40% (in the U.S. at 72%) to 60-70%, corresponding to a potential room supply increase of 30-109% [2]. Group 2: Huazhu Group's Growth Model - Huazhu has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in both store count and performance over the past 15 years, driven by strategic foresight and a highly efficient digital organization. The company has established a growth flywheel in the limited-service hotel sector through strong product offerings, significant member traffic, high returns, and aggressive scale expansion [3]. - The company has a diverse product range from economy to mid-range hotels, with brands like Hanting and Qianxi catering to different customer needs. Its membership base of over 300 million is the largest in the industry, with over 60% of bookings coming from central reservations [3]. Group 3: Value Reassessment - Huazhu is expected to expand its store count significantly, with projections of reaching 18,000 economy and mid-range hotels by 2030, leading the market share [4]. - The company is in a phase of brand upgrading, with mid-range brands poised for growth. The estimated annual fees for mid-range hotels are projected to be 1.5-3 times higher than those for lower-end hotels, which could enhance profitability and valuation [4]. - The company is also transitioning towards a light-asset model, which is expected to support stable cash flows and provide a shareholder return of over 5%, potentially leading to valuation premiums [4].