下调公积金贷款利率,拟推融资政策 2025 年国新办一揽子金融政策点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 网: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-5-6 房地产(申万 40% 20% 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 行业点评·房地产行业 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_持续巩固稳 定态势，有力有序推进城改 2. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_全面发力, 持续推动地产止跌回稳 3. 【银河地产】行业深度_房地产_内生和外生因素 支撑下的需求中枢 4. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_供需两侧齐 发力,推动地产止跌回稳 5. 【银河地产】行业点评_加快构建新模式,推进地 产新篇章_三中全会专题研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 o 事件: 2025年 5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金管局、证监会等 部门负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况, ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Real Estate (CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index) has shown a decline of 1.97% over the past month, but an increase of 5.51% over the past three months and 1.84% year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index reported a value of 1462.70 points as of April 29 [1]. - The index is based on a sample of up to 50 eligible Hong Kong-listed companies that reflect the overall performance of the real estate sector [1]. Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index are: - Sun Hung Kai Properties (13.88%) - China Resources Land (12.3%) - Cheung Kong Property (8.74%) - China Overseas Land & Investment (8.05%) - Sino Land (4.68%) - Wharf Real Estate Investment (4.4%) - Henderson Land Development (4.15%) - Longfor Group (3.75%) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (3.35%) - Wharf Holdings (3.08%) [1]. Group 3: Market Composition - The CSI Hong Kong Real Estate Index exclusively comprises companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% representation [2]. - The index is entirely focused on the real estate sector, with a 100% allocation to this industry [3]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [3]. - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as when a sample company is delisted or when new companies meet the eligibility criteria for inclusion [3].

Business Performance - As of the end of 2024, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle operates 122 shopping centers nationwide, with 86 projects ranking in the top three for local market retail sales, achieving a total retail sales of RMB 215 billion[15]. - The company reported a retail sales figure of RMB 215 billion, showcasing its strong performance in the commercial sector[15]. - Retail sales in managed shopping malls amounted to RMB 215 billion, a year-on-year growth of 18.7%[35]. - The Group achieved consolidated revenue of RMB 17.043 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.4%[46]. - The core net profit attributable to owners of the parent was RMB 3,507 million, up 20.1% from the previous year[26]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, the Group's net profit was RMB 3,730.1 million, representing an increase of 26.8% compared to the previous year[141]. - The net profit attributable to equity shareholders amounted to RMB 3,629.4 million, reflecting a growth of 23.9% year-on-year[142]. Membership and Customer Engagement - The company has over 57 million commercial members, reflecting its strong market presence and customer engagement[15]. - The number of "MIXC Star" members reached 61.07 million, representing a 32.0% year-on-year increase[34]. - Customer satisfaction improved by 3.44 points YoY to 91.76 points, with a collection rate of 87% driven by quality services[37]. - The Group is committed to enhancing its membership system to improve customer loyalty and attract new users, aiming to create more value and growth opportunities[107][109]. Operational Expansion - The total contracted gross floor area (GFA) under management is approximately 1,960 million square meters, with 1,823 million square meters currently under management[12]. - The number of contracted shopping malls under commercial operational services is 177, with 122 already opened[12]. - The number of opened shopping mall projects increased from 98 in 2023 to 118 in 2024, with contracted GFA for management outsourcing projects rising to 18,568 thousand sq.m.[73]. - The Group opened 21 new shopping malls, increasing the total number of operational malls to 122[33]. - The number of projects for GFA under management services grew by 13.3% year-on-year, totaling 221 projects in 2024[24]. Financial Metrics - Revenue for 2024 reached RMB 17,043 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%[26]. - Gross profit increased to RMB 5,609 million, reflecting a growth of 19.5% year-on-year[26]. - The net profit margin improved to 21.9%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year[26]. - The effective income tax rate was 23.8%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous year, attributed to tax exclusions on certain gains from acquisition transactions[144]. Strategic Goals and Future Plans - The company aims to enhance the value of space assets through smart services, focusing on urban quality lifestyle[14]. - The company has a strategic goal of becoming the most influential light asset management company in China, emphasizing its growth ambitions[14]. - The Group aims for steady growth in 2025, focusing on "organic growth + extensional growth" as its core business strategy[48]. - The Group plans to enhance operational capabilities through the application of emerging technologies, focusing on consumer experience and operational efficiency[50]. Technology and Innovation - The Group has implemented a digital transformation strategy focusing on "production technologisation, operation digitalisation, space intelligentisation, and data capitalisation"[39]. - The commercial management segment has successfully piloted an IoT platform, establishing Shenzhen Bay MIXC as a benchmark for smart shopping malls[41]. - The Group launched an intelligent operations platform in the property management segment, with pilot applications in equipment inspections and public area patrols[41]. Leadership and Management - The company has a strong leadership team with diverse backgrounds in engineering, management, and real estate development[182]. - Mr. Wang Haimin has extensive experience in real estate and corporate management, having served in various roles since joining CR Land in October 2013[180]. - Mr. Nie Zhizhang appointed as executive Director, Vice President, and CFO in August 2023, bringing extensive experience in finance, operation, marketing, and investment[188]. - The board includes members with diverse backgrounds in finance, management, and real estate, enhancing strategic decision-making capabilities[191]. Sustainability and ESG - The Group's ESG strategy has been integrated into business operations, achieving recognition as a pioneer in ESG for two consecutive years[45]. - The Group aims to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050, aligning with national dual-carbon strategies and focusing on sustainable development[108][110].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, predicting strong growth in core net profit and a favorable P/E ratio over the next few years [4][6][21]. Core Insights - The company, China Resources Vientiane Life, is a leading property management and commercial operation service provider in China, established in 2017 and part of the Fortune Global 500 company China Resources Group [6][15]. - The company has a dual-track development model focusing on commercial and property management, achieving significant revenue growth and maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [4][6][21]. - The projected core net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be CNY 41.09 billion, CNY 48.01 billion, and CNY 54.81 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.88X, 16.16X, and 14.15X [4][21]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 170.43 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.41% [21]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that the commercial segment contributed CNY 62.74 billion (36.8%), while the property management segment accounted for CNY 107.15 billion (62.9%) [21][28]. - The company’s core net profit for 2024 was CNY 35.07 billion, with a dividend payout ratio of 100% [6][21]. Business Segments Commercial Management - The commercial management segment focuses on shopping centers and office buildings, with a revenue of CNY 62.74 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of 21.45% [31][41]. - The shopping center segment generated CNY 42.09 billion in revenue, with operational services contributing CNY 29.2 billion [31][41]. - The office building segment achieved a revenue of CNY 20.65 billion, primarily from property management and operational services [31][41]. Property Management - The property management segment generated CNY 107.15 billion in revenue, with community space and urban space contributing CNY 88.94 billion and CNY 18.21 billion, respectively [28][31]. - The community space revenue includes residential management and value-added services, with the residential management segment alone generating CNY 66.60 billion [28][31]. Growth Strategy - The company has been expanding its managed projects, with a total of 122 operational projects and a managed area of 131.4 million square meters as of 2024 [60]. - The growth strategy includes both internal expansion through the parent company and external market development, with a significant increase in third-party projects [60][65]. - The company aims to maintain a high growth rate in managed area, with a CAGR of 19.97% from 2021 to 2024 [60][65].

金融界4月21日消息，上证指数低开高走，中证港股通内地地产指数 (港股通内地地产，H11143)平盘报 收，报0.0点，成交额0.0亿元。 据了解，中证港股通内地地产指数从港股通范围内选取内地控股地产主题上市公司证券作为指数样本， 以反映港股通内地地产上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2007年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为基 点。 从中证港股通内地地产指数持仓样本的行业来看，房地产开发占比74.61%、房地产管理占比25.39%。 资料显示，指数样本每半年调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年6月和12月的第二个星期五的下一 交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时间与指数样本定期调整实施时间相同。在下一个定期 调整日前，权重因子一般固定不变。特殊情况下将对指数进行临时调整。样本公司发生收购、合并、分 拆等情形的处理，参照计算与维护细则处理。当港股通证券范围发生变动导致样本不再满足互联互通资 格时，指数将相应调整。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 从指数持仓来看，中证港股通内地地产指数十大权重分别为：华润置地（17.19%）、中国海外发展 （15.69%）、龙湖集团（8.93%）、华润万象生活（7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned in first-tier and core second-tier cities [7]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +3.4%, ranking second among all sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +2.7%, ranking sixth [26]. - New housing transactions have shown a slight decline, with a total of 278 million square meters sold across 47 cities, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 16% [4][47]. - The government is expected to introduce new stimulus policies for the real estate sector by the end of April, aiming to stabilize economic recovery [5][14]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report highlights that the A-share real estate sector's performance was +3.4%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector's performance was +2.7% [26]. - The top five performing real estate stocks included Jianye Real Estate and Rongfeng Holdings, with increases of +40.5% and +31.9% respectively [26]. Land Transaction Data - In the week of April 12-18, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities was 286 million square meters, a decrease of 49% week-on-week and 65% year-on-year, with an average premium rate of 5% [40]. - Year-to-date, the total area of residential land sold in 300 cities reached 10,216 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year change of -0.1% [40]. New Housing Transactions - The report indicates that new housing sales in 47 cities totaled 278 million square meters, with a week-on-week decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 16% [4][47]. - First-tier cities experienced a week-on-week increase of 5%, while second-tier cities saw a decrease of 8% [4][47]. Policy Expectations - The report notes that the government is actively pursuing land and stock housing acquisition, with over 4 million square meters of idle land targeted for acquisition, amounting to 128.2 billion yuan [5][14]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting at the end of April is anticipated to be a critical period for the introduction of new real estate policies [5][14]. Real Estate Data Trends - Real estate development investment from January to March 2025 showed a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%, while new construction area decreased by 24.4% [6][15]. - The report indicates that housing prices are stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing a slight increase in second-hand housing prices [6][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][77]. Core Insights - The company achieved a core net profit growth of 20% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 100% [8]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a core net profit of 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting a core net profit margin of 20.6%, up by 0.8 percentage points [8]. - The company focuses on shareholder returns, with a total dividend of 1.536 yuan per share for 2024, which includes a special dividend of 0.614 yuan [8]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's commercial segment revenue reached 6.3 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 21% year-on-year, with shopping center revenue at 4.2 billion yuan, up 30% [28]. - The gross margin for the commercial segment was 72.6%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [28]. - The property management segment generated 10.7 billion yuan in revenue, a 12% increase, with a gross margin of 17.0%, down by 0.5 percentage points [59]. Business Structure - The commercial segment accounted for 37% of total revenue and 67% of gross profit, showing an increase of 2 percentage points and 3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous year [8]. - The core business of property services and community value-added services continues to dominate, with a revenue and gross profit share of 92% and 85% respectively [59]. Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 4.08 billion yuan and 4.56 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 1.79 yuan and 2.00 yuan [77]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are 18.8 and 16.8 respectively [77]. Efficiency and Management - The company improved its management efficiency, with a combined management and sales expense ratio of 7.4%, down by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The asset turnover rate for 2024 was 60%, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year, and the weighted return on equity (ROE) was 22%, up by 2 percentage points [8].

Core Points - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Real Estate Index opened high and is currently at 1415.63 points, showing a decline of 7.76% over the past month, an increase of 4.84% over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 1.11% [1] - The index consists of up to 50 eligible Hong Kong-listed companies that reflect the overall performance of the real estate sector, with a base date of November 14, 2014, set at 3000.0 points [1] Index Holdings - The top ten weighted companies in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Real Estate Index are: New World Development (13.54%), China Resources Land (12.87%), Cheung Kong Property (8.6%), China Overseas Land & Investment (8.19%), Sino Land (4.62%), Wharf Real Estate Investment (4.34%), Henderson Land Development (4.09%), Longfor Group (3.83%), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (3.39%), and Wharf Holdings (2.92%) [1] Market Composition - The index's holdings are entirely composed of companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the real estate development sector accounting for 78.01%, real estate management for 11.39%, and real estate services for 10.60% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，3月重点城市新房成交同比增长3.5%，二手房成交同比 增长37%，二手房成交占比继续提升。核心城市表现亮眼。北上广深成杭二手房成交套数同比增速均在 30%以上。百强房企3月销售金额降幅扩大，主要系二手房替代和新开盘项目减少，但核心城市项目首 开去化率明显提升。土地市场延续火热，核心城市单价"地王"频现，推高土拍溢价率。3月全国宅地成 交溢价率为17.15%，环比提升4.4个百分点。贸易战背景下针对内需的宏观政策积极有为、靠前发力， 看好房地产行业板块整体表现。 中信建投证券主要观点如下： 新房成交延续止跌，二手房成交处于历史高位 一季度重点40城新房成交面积2580万方，同比增长4.5%。其中3月新房成交面积为1124万平，同比增长 3.5%。在新开盘项目收缩背景下，3月重点城市新房成交面积仍实现正增长，且一线城市新房成交面积 同比增速达到两位数。二手房成交景气度好于新房，一季度重点13城二手房成交面积为1960万方，同比 增长33%，成交量处于历史高位。其中3月二手房成交面积为850万方，同比增长37%，北上广深成杭六 个核心城市一季度二手房成交套数增速均在30% ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall supply and demand situation in the commercial real estate sector does not determine individual operational results, with the ability to outperform peers being crucial for success [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Increased external uncertainties are expected to boost the value of shopping centers as domestic demand is emphasized as a strategic foundation for new development [1] - Shopping centers are vital physical spaces for consumer activities, and recent government initiatives aim to enhance consumption infrastructure to stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Major brand shopping centers are outperforming retail sales and rental growth, with projected average sales growth of 16.4% and rental income growth of 16.6% for three leading companies in 2024 [2] - The same companies are expected to see same-store sales growth of 6.2% and same-store rental growth of 3.1%, indicating strong operational performance [2] Group 3: Expansion and Management - The three leading companies plan to open a total of 47 new shopping centers in 2024, with significant investments in both light and heavy asset models [3] - The average same-store sales growth for these companies exceeds the industry average by 6.2 percentage points, showcasing the effectiveness of quality management [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - There are over 6,000 shopping centers in China, but only about 25% are managed by high-quality management companies, indicating a significant competitive advantage for these firms [4] - Established brands have geographical advantages in tenant selection and consumer behavior, which helps them maintain higher rental growth compared to the overall retail sector [4] Group 5: Asset Valuation - The development of various financial instruments like public and private REITs is driving the revaluation of commercial real estate assets, with a focus on stable cash flow properties [5] - The recognition of quality management platforms is expected to expand beyond first-tier cities by 2025, enhancing their market presence [5]