恒瑞医药 20250709 摘要 恒瑞医药受益于国内外医药市场回暖及海外投资者关注，预计 2025- 2027 年营收将分别达到 330 亿、378 亿和 446 亿，增速分别为 18%、14.8%和 17.8%；归母净利润预计分别达到 74 亿、86 亿和 103 亿，增速分别为 17%、16.7%和接近 20%。 恒瑞医药临床管线丰富，拥有 132 条管线，其中 31 条已申报上市或处 于后期申报阶段，57 条已披露靶点，另有大量未披露管线，显示出强大 的未来竞争力，预计未来几年创新药获批上市数量将显著增加。 基于收入与利润结构优化及创新药上市数量增加，恒瑞医药市值有望重 回 5,000-6,000 亿元水平，公司近年来完成销售改革并积极推进国内外 创新药业务发展，目前 3,000 亿元市值档口具有良好发展前景。 恒瑞医药通过"借船出海"策略推进国际化，海外竞争力强劲，但 A 股 市场对其海外业务估值尚未充分体现。2023-2025 年 BD 利润分别为 7 亿、27 亿和预计 30-40 亿，将推动公司重回白马股逻辑，预计明年市 盈率为 30-35 倍，利润增速为 20%-30%。 恒瑞医药近期市场表现 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market shows signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,500 points, attracting attention to foreign capital movements, particularly northbound funds [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, northbound funds held a total of 2,907 A-shares, with a total shareholding of 1,232.08 billion shares, an increase of 41.19 billion shares from the previous quarter and 7.22 billion shares from the end of 2024 [2] - The total market value of northbound funds reached 2.289 trillion yuan, an increase of 537 billion yuan from the previous quarter and 871 billion yuan from the end of 2024, indicating a significant increase in investment in the A-share market [2] Group 2 - The industry with the largest increase in shareholding by northbound funds in Q2 2025 was enterprise services, with a growth of 38%, followed by telecommunications services at 27% and national defense at 26% [2] - Conversely, the industries with the largest decrease in shareholding were hardware equipment, down 15%, and home appliances and textiles, both down 13% [2] Group 3 - The stocks with the highest market value held by northbound funds as of June 2025 included CATL, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, and others, with CATL and Kweichow Moutai each exceeding 100 billion yuan in market value [3] - The three companies with the most significant changes in market value held by northbound funds were CATL, Hengrui Medicine, and Dongpeng Beverage, all of which have recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][4] Group 4 - The decline in AH share premiums indicates a narrowing price gap between A-shares and H-shares, enhancing market efficiency and providing a fairer investment environment [5][7] - The decrease in AH share premiums may influence the allocation of northbound funds between A-shares and H-shares, shifting focus towards the fundamentals and industry outlook rather than short-term price differences [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting a gloomy market sentiment [1][2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 1.76%, while the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 1.06% and 1.28%, respectively [1][2] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks and financial stocks underperformed, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Meituan and Xiaomi dropping over 2% [2][4] - Gold stocks weakened as international gold prices continued to decline, with several gold companies experiencing significant drops [2][8] - Pharmaceutical stocks surged despite tariff threats, with Heng Rui Medicine rising over 15%, reaching an all-time high [2][12] Notable Stock Movements - The semiconductor sector saw declines, with Hua Hong Semiconductor down over 4% and other major players like SMIC and Shanghai Fudan also falling [10][11] - Gambling stocks showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up over 6% and other casino operators also gaining [13][14] - Dairy stocks were active, with Yuran Dairy rising over 10% [15] Capital Flows - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 9.256 billion, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks [23] Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the ongoing reforms in the Hong Kong listing system will enhance the asset quality and liquidity of the market, with a potential upward trend in the third quarter [25]

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector in Hong Kong is experiencing a strong resurgence, particularly driven by leading companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, despite external pressures from potential U.S. tariffs on drugs [2][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares are showing strong performance with sectors like "anti-involution," photovoltaic, computing power, and military industries rising, while the Hang Seng Index is declining [1]. - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's stock surged over 14% in Hong Kong, reaching a new high since July 2021, with a market capitalization of HKD 453.65 billion [5][6]. Group 2: Company Developments - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is a leader in the pharmaceutical industry, covering various therapeutic areas including oncology, metabolism, cardiovascular diseases, and more [7]. - The company received approval for clinical trials for two new drugs, indicating its role as an innovator in the pharmaceutical sector [8]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Citigroup has initiated a buy rating for Heng Rui Pharmaceutical's H-shares with a target price of HKD 134, highlighting the company's growth potential [9]. - Revenue growth predictions for Heng Rui Pharmaceutical are optimistic, with expected increases of 27%, 18%, and 18% from 2025 to 2027, along with net profit growth of 39%, 23%, and 17% [10].

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical (01276.HK) experienced a significant stock price increase of over 18%, surpassing 70 HKD, marking a historical high due to the approval of its SHR-2173 injection for clinical use [1] Company Summary - The company has invested approximately 64.07 million yuan in the research and development of the SHR-2173 injection project to date [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74%, down 177 points, closing at 23,970 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.14% with a trading volume of HKD 122.4 billion in the morning session [1] - New weight stocks performed well, with CATL (03750) rising by 6.35%, reaching a new high since its listing after a strategic cooperation agreement with Geely [1] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) surged by 9.8%, hitting a new high after the clinical approval of SHR-2173 injection [2] Group 2 - Television Broadcasts (00511) increased by over 8% as the company deepens its strategic cooperation in the Greater Bay Area, with institutions optimistic about its profit outlook [3] - Fenbi (02469) rose by over 7% following a significant upgrade to its AI exam preparation system, expanding its AI product matrix [4] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) soared by 14%, with a year-to-date increase of 320%, as the company proposed to spin off its rare earth gold business for independent listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] Group 3 - Hong Kong Travel (00308) continued to rise by 9%, doubling its stock price this year, driven by market speculation on stablecoin cross-border payment scenarios [5] - Q Technology (01478) increased by over 8%, with sales of mobile camera modules reaching 3.2648 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [6] - Gold stocks fell across the board as spot gold dropped below USD 3,300, with institutions predicting a high volatility trend for gold prices [6]

Summary of the Conference Call for 恒瑞医药 Company Overview - **Company**: 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine) - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Key Points and Arguments Internationalization and Business Development - 恒瑞医药 is accelerating its internationalization through diversified cooperation models, entering the business development (BD) realization phase, with significant growth in innovative drug licensing revenue expected to reach 3.1 billion RMB by 2025, driving overall revenue and profit growth [2][27] - The company has strengthened its BD capabilities since 2023, achieving rapid development in external licensing agreements, including a deal with Merck for small molecule licensing with upfront payments close to 700 to 800 million RMB and milestone payments nearing 12.4 billion RMB [2][6][7] Generic and Innovative Drug Business - In the generic drug market, 恒瑞医药 has steadily expanded overseas, with overseas revenue projected to reach 720 million RMB in 2024, while domestic generic drug business is expected to maintain around 12 billion RMB [2][4] - The company plans to launch three first-generic drugs overseas in 2024, which have significant global sales potential, contributing to growth in 2025-2026 [4] - In the innovative drug sector, 恒瑞医药 is expected to launch 25 innovative drugs from 2025 to 2027, entering a peak period for innovative drug launches, with products like JAK1 inhibitors and PD-1/TGFβ showing great potential [4][22] Product Development and Clinical Trials - The small molecule oral GLP-1 product shows excellent safety, with a discontinuation rate below 5%, significantly lower than competitors, and the dual-target injection product has shown promising efficacy data [10] - In the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) field, products like CMET ADC and nectin-4 ADC exhibit strong BD potential, with the latter showing over 55% objective response rate (ORR) in clinical trials for resistant urothelial carcinoma [15][18] Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations - 恒瑞医药 has shifted its collaboration model from primarily licensing in technology to actively engaging in licensing out, partnering with both small biotech firms and multinational corporations [6][9] - The company has made significant progress in collaborations with small biotech and new code companies, with promising developments in ADC and small molecule GLP-1 products [9] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - 恒瑞医药 is recognized as one of the most competitive companies in the breast cancer field, with a comprehensive layout including next-generation HER2 ADC and HER2 TKI targeting unmet clinical needs [20] - The company is also making strides in autoimmune and metabolic diseases, with several first-in-class targets showing excellent efficacy [21] Sales and Revenue Forecast - The sales team reform initiated in 2020 has been completed, with a new innovative sales model expected to drive faster growth [25] - For 2025, the company anticipates achieving around 3.1 billion RMB in innovative drug licensing revenue, contributing to overall revenue and net profit growth [27] Research and Development Pipeline - As of now, 恒瑞医药 has 133 pipelines in development, with 31 nearing market launch and the rest in various stages of clinical trials [13][14] - The company has categorized its pipelines based on global competitive landscape and potential for licensing out, indicating a strategic approach to maximize asset value [14] Additional Important Insights - The company has faced geopolitical risks and strategic adjustments in its innovative drug development approach, focusing on fewer but more novel clinical developments since 2022 [5] - The ADC field remains a key focus, with the company actively pursuing BD opportunities despite missing earlier windows [15][16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting 恒瑞医药's strategic direction, product development, market positioning, and future growth potential.

上 半 年 ， A 股 IPO 募 集 总 额 达 373.55 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 14.96%； 港 股 IPO 融 资 规 模 达 974.25 亿 元 ， 同 比 激 增 688.56%。 作者： 牛钰 封图：图虫创意 从年初的"松动"信号到年中节点，IPO（首次公开发行）市场节奏和主线的变化一直牵动着资本市 场的神经。回头来看，在政策优化和市场复苏的双向加持下，2025年IPO市场的活跃度骤起，融资 项目与规模显著回暖。 Wind数据显示，截至6月30日，上半年A股共有51只新股上市，同比增加7家，IPO募集总额达 373.55亿元，同比增长14.96%。其中，9只新股募资金额超过10亿元，中策橡胶（603049.SH）首 发募资金额最高，达40.66亿元。 港股IPO市场更是火热"出圈"，上半年共有43家企业成功上市，IPO融资规模达1067.13亿港元（约 合人民币974.25亿元），同比激增688.56%。按交易所排名，港交所的IPO融资规模位居全球榜 首，居于其后的纳斯达克交易所在上半年有79宗IPO（剔除特殊目的收购公司），筹资约90.74亿 美元（约合人民币650.32亿元）。 ...

Group 1 - The IPO market in China has seen significant activity in the first half of 2025, with a total of 51 new stocks listed on the A-share market, raising a total of 37.355 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.96% [2] - The Hong Kong IPO market has also experienced a surge, with 43 companies successfully listed, raising 1,067.13 million HKD (approximately 974.25 million yuan), a staggering increase of 688.56% year-on-year [2][4] - The top five IPO projects in Hong Kong by financing amount include major companies such as CATL and Hengrui Medicine, with CATL raising 410.06 million HKD (approximately 374.39 million yuan), making it the highest globally [4][5] Group 2 - Seven A-share companies have successfully listed in Hong Kong, raising a total of 770.17 million HKD (approximately 703.39 million yuan), accounting for 72.17% of the total IPO financing in Hong Kong for the first half of the year [5] - The A-share market has seen a competitive landscape with 26 brokers assisting in 51 IPOs, with CITIC Securities leading with six projects [10][12] - The number of IPO applications received by the three major exchanges in China has expanded significantly, with a total of 177 applications in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [10] Group 3 - The performance of the stock market has been closely linked to the warming of the IPO market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.76% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong reflects a new characteristic, with leading companies adopting a dual-platform strategy and focusing on hard technology and new consumption sectors [6][7] - The leading brokers in the Hong Kong IPO market include CICC, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities, with notable growth in business volume compared to foreign investment banks [8][9]