恒瑞医药 20250728 摘要 恒瑞医药预计 2025-2027 年营业收入分别为 357.7 亿、424 亿和 508 亿人民币，归母净利润分别为 93 亿、115 亿和 137 亿人民币，显示出 强劲的增长潜力。 恒瑞与 GSK 达成重要合作，包括 5 亿美元首付款和 120 亿美元里程碑 付款，涉及 PDE3/4 抑制剂及 11 个临床前项目，覆盖肿瘤、呼吸、自 免炎症等领域，显著增厚 2025 年收入。 恒瑞医药虽未在 PD-1 VGF 及 ADC 赛道取得领先，但整体管线厚度显 著提升，拥有超过 30 个具备对外授权潜力的管线，涵盖呼吸、肿瘤、 自免等领域。 恒瑞在呼吸赛道表现出色，PDE3/4 抑制剂临床进展领先，DPI 剂型研 发提升用药便捷性，与正大天晴、海思科等企业相比具有竞争优势。 默沙东以 100 亿美元收购菲罗娜资产，延长了 COPD 赛道的生命力，为 中国相关企业带来利好，可能促使阿斯利康等企业加强在该领域的布局。 恒瑞实施"少而精"战略，通过与默沙东、GSK 等跨国药企合作加速全 球化进程，积极参与国际会议展示临床数据，促进 BD 合作。 恒瑞拥有 133 条在研管线，包括 AR ...

目前，与HRS-9821同靶点的产品，仅有由英国制药公司Verona Pharma首创的Ensifentrine（恩塞芬 汀），其2024年6月在美国获批，用于慢性阻塞性肺病的维持治疗。2024年恩塞芬汀销售额约为4200万 美元。值得注意的是，2025年7月9日，默沙东称将以100亿美元收购Verona Pharma，从而取得了恩塞芬 汀这款药物。 当日，恒瑞医药A股港股均大涨，A股市值时隔四年重返4000亿元。 据公告，恒瑞医药已将HRS-9821项目除中国大陆和港澳台以外的全球独家权利有偿许可给了GSK；同 时有偿许可的还有至多11个项目的全球独家许可选择权。 作为交易的对价，GSK将向恒瑞医药支付5亿美元的首付款；如果GSK对所有项目都行使了选择权、所 有里程碑均已实现，这笔交易的潜在总金额将达到120亿美元。此外，恒瑞还有权向GSK收取相应的分 梯度的销售提成。 本次交易的核心资产HRS-9821，是一款已获批进行临床试验的PDE3/4抑制剂，可用于治疗慢性阻塞性 肺病。据世界卫生组织数据，全球受慢阻肺影响的人数超过3.8亿。 恒瑞医药称，HRS-9821具有成为同类最佳的潜质。截至目前，HRS-9 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed a mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.68% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.24% [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,562.13 points with a trading volume of 250.3 billion HKD, down from 281.8 billion HKD in the previous trading day [1] - The afternoon session saw a rebound in the market after an initial decline in the morning [1] Sector Performance - Innovative pharmaceuticals and large financial sectors performed well, while local real estate stocks strengthened in the afternoon [1] - Conversely, sectors such as solar energy, coal, and non-ferrous metals weakened [1] Notable Stocks - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (宁德时代) surged by 6.24%, reaching a new high since its listing [1] - Hengrui Medicine (恒瑞医药) saw a significant increase of 24.54% after announcing a potential $12.5 billion licensing agreement with GSK [1] - China Ping An (中国平安) rose by 3.49% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) declined by 3.90% [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (赣锋锂业) fell by 6.66% [1]

【导读】 A 股午前突发跳水，上纬新材新晋 "10 倍股 " 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！来一起关注上午的市场行情和最新资讯 ~ 7 月 28 日上午， A 股震荡走高，午前忽然跳水。截至午间收盘，上证指数跌 0.17% ，深 证成指跌 0.16% ，创业板指涨 0.1% 。 全市场半日成交额为 1.14 万亿元，较上日略有放量；全市场 3057 只个股下跌， 2162 只 个股上涨。 盘面上，上午金融、制药、航天军工、通信设备等板块走强， PEEK 材料、稀土、稳定币等 概念股持续活跃；煤炭、航运板块集体调整，钢铁、贵金属、光伏玻璃等回调。 | 多元金融 1.01% | 发电设备 0.76% | 通信设备 0.68% | 券商 0.38% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 包装 0.37% | 商业服务 0.25% | 陆路运输 -1.29% | 航空 -1.32% | | 石油天然气 -1.33% | 贵金属 -1.55% | 互联网 -1.57% | 钢铁 -1.71% | | 日用化工 -1.91% | 海运 -1.93% | 软饮料 -2.39% | 煤炭 -2.79% ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) opened up 70 points and peaked at nearly 300 points before retracting gains, closing up 0.40% at 25,490.45 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.59%, closing at 5,644.52 points [1] - Total market turnover reached HKD 149.725 billion [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector, including Chinese securities firms and insurance companies, showed strong performance [1] - Innovative drug concepts also performed well, contributing to the overall market gains [1] - Conversely, sectors such as coal and non-ferrous metals experienced declines [1] Notable Stocks - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) surged by 13.78% after reaching an agreement with China Tobacco International to maintain its position in the domestic duty-free cigarette business [1] - China Ping An (02318.HK) increased by 3.21% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (01276.HK) rose by 15.43% [1] - China Shenhua (01088.HK) saw a decline of 1.85% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Heng Rui Medicine's stock surged over 10% following the announcement of a significant overseas licensing deal with GSK, marking a key step in the company's international expansion strategy [1][2] Group 1: Financial Details - The agreement with GSK involves the global exclusive rights to the innovative drug HRS-9821 and up to 11 additional research projects, excluding mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau, with an upfront payment of $500 million [1] - The potential total revenue for Heng Rui could reach approximately $12 billion if all project options are exercised and milestones are achieved, along with tiered royalties on overseas sales [1] - Since 2018, Heng Rui has completed 14 licensing deals involving 17 molecular entities, with a total potential transaction value of about $14 billion and upfront payments exceeding $600 million [2] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The collaboration with GSK is seen as a validation of Heng Rui's innovative drug development capabilities and enhances its brand influence and overseas performance [1][2] - Heng Rui's product matrix includes a strong focus on oncology, with 10 marketed products, 4 under review, and several in development, particularly highlighting the HER2 ADC drug SHR-A1811, which has received 8 breakthrough therapy designations [1] - The dual strategy of "independent innovation + overseas licensing" is accelerating Heng Rui's integration into the global innovative drug industry chain [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [12]. Core Insights - The company has entered into an agreement with GSK for the global exclusive rights to the HRS-9821 project and up to 11 additional projects, which is expected to significantly enhance profits. GSK will pay an upfront fee of $500 million, with potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion based on successful development and sales [6][9]. - HRS-9821 is a potential best-in-class PDE3/4 inhibitor currently in Phase I clinical development for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The global market for similar products is growing, with a significant patient population in China [9]. - The company has accelerated its business development (BD) transactions, indicating a recognition of its innovative research capabilities by large multinational pharmaceutical companies. This is expected to lead to a revaluation of its pipeline [9]. - The profit forecast for 2025 has been raised due to the upfront payment, with projected net profits of RMB 10.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 59.3% [9][11]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 10.1 billion, RMB 8.75 billion, and RMB 10.4 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.3%, -13.3%, and 18.9% [11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.52, RMB 1.32, and RMB 1.56 for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 52.1%, -13.3%, and 18.9% [11]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 36.06 billion in 2025 to RMB 45.40 billion in 2027, with a steady increase in operating profit [14].

Core Viewpoint - HengRui Pharma has entered into a collaboration agreement with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to co-develop up to 12 innovative drugs, which will enhance HengRui's globalization efforts and provide GSK with significant growth opportunities post-2031 [1] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The collaboration includes a total upfront payment of $500 million from GSK to HengRui [1][3] - HengRui will license its PDE3/4 inhibitor, HRS-9821, to GSK for global rights outside of Greater China, which is currently in clinical development for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) [1][2] - The agreement also encompasses a groundbreaking collaborative plan to develop up to 11 additional projects, with HengRui leading the research and GSK having exclusive options for further development and commercialization [2][3] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The partnership is seen as a significant milestone in HengRui's internationalization process, leveraging GSK's strengths in drug development and global clinical networks to accelerate the entry of innovative therapies into overseas markets [2] - GSK's Chief Scientific Officer emphasized the strategic investment in validated target projects, which can significantly enhance the success rate of research and development [2] - The collaboration aims to integrate GSK's expertise in disease biology and clinical development with HengRui's capabilities in early-stage research and clinical evaluation, maximizing strategic synergies [2] Group 3: Financial Potential - If all projects are successfully developed and milestones are achieved, HengRui could qualify for potential milestone payments totaling approximately $12 billion [3] - HengRui will also be entitled to receive tiered sales royalties from GSK, excluding sales in Greater China [3]

Core Insights - Hengrui Pharma has entered into agreements with GSK to develop up to 12 innovative medicines, enhancing Hengrui's globalization strategy and providing new growth opportunities for GSK beyond 2031 [1][5] - GSK will pay $500 million in upfront fees for the agreements, which include a license for a potential best-in-class PDE3/4 inhibitor (HRS-9821) for treating chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) [1][6] Group 1: Agreements and Financials - The agreements grant GSK an exclusive worldwide license for HRS-9821, aimed at treating COPD as an add-on maintenance treatment [2][8] - The total potential value of future success-based payments to Hengrui Pharma could reach approximately $12 billion if all programmes are optioned and milestones achieved [6] Group 2: Development and Collaboration - Hengrui Pharma will lead the development of the additional 11 programmes up to the completion of phase I trials, with GSK having the option to further develop and commercialize them [4][8] - The collaboration is expected to leverage GSK's R&D expertise and global clinical network, accelerating the development of innovative therapies [5][6]

中证指数有限公司与恒生指数有限公司公布沪港通AH股精明指数半年度指数检讨结果，将加入恒瑞医 药(01276.HK)与海天味业(03288.HK)；剔除东方证券(03958.HK)、广汽集团(02238.HK)。 相关链接 ...