Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, reflecting a 1.7x P/EV for 2025, supported by stable growth in NBV and EV, and an expected improvement in shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of USD 2.534 billion, a decrease of 24% year-on-year; however, the after-tax operating profit was USD 3.609 billion, representing a 6% increase [1] - The embedded value (EV) stood at USD 70.853 billion, up 2.6% from the end of the previous year, with a 4.2% contribution from new business value growth and a 4.2% contribution from stable expected returns [1] - The interim dividend for 2025 was set at HKD 0.49 per share, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) Growth - The company reported a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for H1 2025, with annualized new premiums rising by 8% and the value ratio improving by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2] - In Hong Kong, NBV grew by 24%, driven by a 35% increase in agent channel NBV due to a 9% growth in active agents and a 30% increase in productivity [2] - In mainland China, NBV decreased by 4%, but if excluding the impact of economic assumptions, it would have increased by 10% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) grew steadily, with a 6% increase in H1 2025, primarily due to stable CSM release and positive contributions from operational differences and risk adjustments [3] - The diluted after-tax operating profit per share was USD 0.3391, a 12% increase year-on-year, with the return on equity for shareholders rising by 0.9 percentage points to 16.2% [3] - The company completed a USD 1.6 billion share buyback on July 14, 2025, and returned USD 3.71 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in H1 2025, with free surplus at USD 9.898 billion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company benefited from rapid growth in its Hong Kong and Thailand operations, with a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for the first half of the year, alongside growth in annualized new premiums and NBVM [1][2][4] Group 1: NBV Performance - The company's NBV for the first half of the year reached $2.838 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with annualized new premiums up 8% and NBVM increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2][3] - Growth in NBV was primarily driven by the Hong Kong and Thailand markets, while the mainland China business saw a decline due to adjustments in economic assumptions [2][3] - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 24% to $1.063 billion, with both local customers and mainland visitors contributing to double-digit growth [2][3] - Thailand's NBV rose by 35% to $522 million, driven by a one-time sales boost before new co-payment regulations took effect in March 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Mainland China Business - The mainland China business experienced a 4% decline in NBV to $743 million, primarily due to changes in economic assumptions; however, excluding this impact, NBV grew by 10% [3] - New regions established since 2019 showed strong growth, with a 36% increase in NBV for these areas in the first half of the year [3] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in NBV for new regions from 2025 to 2030, with plans to open 1-2 new regions each year [3] Group 3: Operating Profit - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in after-tax operating profit to $3.609 billion, with earnings per share growing by 12% [4] - Strong business quality was reflected in the increase of CSM amortization and positive operating variances, which contributed to a 19% rise in insurance service performance [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.5% to $2.534 billion, primarily due to a 51.5% increase in financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of 49.00 Hong Kong cents per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, and completed a $1.6 billion share buyback on July 14 [5][6] - The free surplus generated in the first half of the year was $2.430 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Since 2022, the company has returned $22.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 13% [6] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company maintains a high level of shareholder returns while anticipating future growth, with projected NBV of $5.449 billion, $5.941 billion, and $6.493 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - The company has set a target valuation of 1.55x PEV for 2025E, corresponding to a reasonable target price of HKD 85.3, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Market Overview - US stock indices collectively rose on Friday, with the Hang Seng Index ADR closing at 25,555.78 points, up 216.64 points or 0.85% compared to the Hong Kong close [1][2] Hang Seng Index ADR Details - The Hang Seng Index ADR had a closing price of 25,555.78, with a high of 25,596.02 and a low of 25,223.16 during the trading session [2] - The average price for the session was 25,409.59, with a trading volume of 49.472 million [2] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 102.647, up 1.33% from the Hong Kong close [3] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 608.57, reflecting a 1.43% increase compared to the Hong Kong close [3] - Alibaba Group (ADR) rose by 1.77%, closing at HKD 120.085 [3] - Other notable performers included Xiaomi Group (+1.65%), Meituan (+2.03%), and Hong Kong Exchanges (+1.60%) [3]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the CES300 index increasing by 1.5% to 5259.53 points, with a trading volume of 633.5 billion yuan [1] - The CES300 index has seen a 3.98% increase over the past month, an 8.01% increase over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 16.99% [1] - The CES300 index is designed to reflect the overall performance of eligible securities under the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" and "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect" [1] Index Holdings - The top ten holdings of the CES300 index include Tencent Holdings (8.77%), Alibaba-W (5.11%), HSBC Holdings (4.03%), Kweichow Moutai (2.27%), Xiaomi Group-W (2.17%), China Construction Bank (2.12%), CATL (1.87%), AIA Group (1.76%), Meituan-W (1.64%), and Ping An Insurance (1.61%) [2] - The market share of the CES300 index holdings is 51.07% from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, 29.35% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and 19.58% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CES300 index holdings includes Financials (29.42%), Consumer Discretionary (15.15%), Communication Services (14.38%), Information Technology (10.00%), Industrials (8.74%), Consumer Staples (6.06%), Health Care (5.19%), Materials (3.64%), Energy (2.77%), Utilities (2.63%), and Real Estate (2.02%) [2] Tracking Funds - Public funds tracking the CES300 index include Dachen CES300C and Dachen CES300A [3]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and rose, with the CES100 index increasing by 1.17% to 5617.05 points and a trading volume of 1028.52 billion [1] - The CES100 index has seen a 2.51% increase over the past month, an 8.23% increase over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 30.83% [1] Index Composition - The top ten holdings of the CES100 index are Tencent Holdings (10.78%), HSBC Holdings (10.05%), Alibaba-W (9.36%), Xiaomi Group-W (6.92%), AIA Group (5.61%), Meituan-W (5.24%), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (4.12%), Standard Chartered Group (2.51%), Prudential (1.96%), and Pop Mart (1.87%) [2] - The CES100 index is fully composed of stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the CES100 index includes Financials (27.65%), Consumer Discretionary (26.49%), Communication Services (14.67%), Information Technology (9.33%), Healthcare (5.67%), Real Estate (5.39%), Utilities (3.72%), Industrials (3.30%), Consumer Staples (3.15%), and Materials (0.63%) [2] Tracking Funds - Public funds tracking the CES100 index include Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF Link A, Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF Link C, and Huaan CES Hong Kong Stock Connect Selected 100 ETF [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The report highlights a steady growth in operating profit, with a 6% year-on-year increase in after-tax operating profit to USD 3.609 billion in the first half of 2025, driven by a 9% increase in contract service margins [2][3] - The new business value increased by 14% year-on-year to USD 2.838 billion, with a notable performance in Hong Kong and Thailand [2][4] - The company returned USD 3.710 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with an interim dividend increase of 10% to HKD 0.49 [2] Summary by Sections Operating Profit - The after-tax operating profit for the first half of 2025 was USD 3.609 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, attributed to a 9% rise in contract service margins [2][3] - Basic after-tax operating profit per share rose by 12% to USD 0.34 [3] New Business Value - New business value increased by 14% year-on-year to USD 2.838 billion, with a new business value rate up by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2][4] - Annualized new premiums grew by 8% to USD 4.942 billion, with regional performance varying across markets [4] Regional Performance - In Hong Kong, new business value rose by 24% to USD 1.063 billion, while Thailand saw a 35% increase to USD 0.522 billion [4] - The decline in new business value in mainland China was influenced by changes in economic assumptions, but adjusted growth was 10% [4] Distribution Channels - The agency channel contributed significantly, with new business value increasing by 17% to USD 2.220 billion, and a new business value rate up by 4.4 percentage points to 72.0% [5] - The partner distribution channel also saw growth, with new business value rising by 8% to USD 0.804 billion [5] Financial Forecasts - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, expecting insurance revenue of USD 20.841 billion, USD 22.436 billion, and USD 24.168 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - Projected net profits for the same years are USD 7.112 billion, USD 7.701 billion, and USD 8.354 billion, with corresponding EPS of USD 0.50, USD 0.54, and USD 0.59 [6]

Core Points - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index has shown significant growth, with a 52.28% increase year-to-date, 34.44% over the last three months, and 11.09% in the past month [1][2] - The index consists of up to 50 listed companies that meet the non-bank financial theme criteria, reflecting the overall performance of this sector within the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1] Index Performance - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index opened higher, closing at 4438.09 points with a trading volume of 20.382 billion yuan [1] - The index was established on November 14, 2014, with a base point of 3000.0 [1] Index Composition - The top ten weighted companies in the index include China Ping An (14.88%), Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (13.02%), AIA Group (12.77%), China Life (9.69%), China Pacific Insurance (7.81%), China Property & Casualty Insurance (6.69%), New China Life (3.96%), People's Insurance Group of China (3.95%), CITIC Securities (2.97%), and China Galaxy Securities (2.41%) [1] - The index exclusively comprises companies from the financial sector, with 100% representation from this industry [2] Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - In special circumstances, the index may undergo temporary adjustments, such as removing companies that are delisted or adding new companies that meet the criteria [2]

Core Viewpoint - AIA's subsidiary, AIA Life, has demonstrated strong growth in the Chinese insurance market, with several key operational indicators showing steady improvement in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - AIA Life achieved insurance business revenue of RMB 49.708 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [2]. - The new business value for the first half of 2025 was USD 743 million, with a 10% increase before accounting for economic assumption changes, and a 15% growth in the second quarter [2]. - The new business value margin was 58.6%, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, AIA Life's comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio was 410.03%, and the core solvency adequacy ratio was 287.82%, maintaining a AAA risk rating for two consecutive quarters [2]. Group 2: Market Potential - By 2030, the middle class and affluent population in mainland China is expected to exceed 550 million, with a significant increase in the aging population, projected to reach 40% by 2050 [3][5]. - There is a substantial gap in health and pension insurance, with a life insurance protection gap exceeding USD 600 billion and a health insurance protection gap exceeding USD 1.4 trillion by 2024, accounting for 50% of similar gaps across Asia [3][5]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - AIA Life's marketing agent team is a key competitive advantage, with the average new business value per agent in 2024 being 2.9 times higher than the industry average [8]. - Since 2017, the new business value generated by AIA Life's agents has increased by 60%, while the market has declined by over 40% during the same period [10]. - AIA Life focuses on customer lifetime value with a differentiated product portfolio that meets various life stage needs, with over 90% of agents selling protection policies [11][13]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology - AIA Life has upgraded its "Health You Walk" app to "AIA You Share," transforming it into a comprehensive digital platform for customer interaction, facilitating over 5 million online customer interactions in 2024 [23][25]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in the "AIA You Share" platform has improved customer resource integration and marketing efficiency, achieving a 19% conversion rate for high-intent customer leads [25][30]. Group 5: Strategic Expansion - AIA Life plans to expand into new markets, targeting 1-2 new provinces annually from 2025 to 2030, with a goal of achieving a compound annual growth rate of 40% in new business value in these regions [35]. - The company has established 14 provincial-level institutions and aims to leverage its marketing channels and differentiated bancassurance models to drive growth in new markets [33][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) [7][3] Core Views - The company's operating profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 6% year-on-year, with a mid-year dividend growth of 10%. The Net Book Value (NBV) and Embedded Value (EV) showed steady growth, and the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) was released steadily, indicating continued improvement in shareholder returns [3][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from $17.514 billion in 2023 to $24.659 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [5] - Net profit is expected to rise from $3.781 billion in 2023 to $7.471 billion in 2027, with a significant increase of 81.2% in 2024, followed by a decline of 19.4% in 2025 [5] - The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 28.35 in 2023 to 13.22 in 2027, while the Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 2.61 to 2.14 over the same period [5] NBV and Performance - The NBV for the first half of 2025 grew by 14% year-on-year, driven primarily by the Hong Kong region, which saw a 24% increase in NBV. The annualized new premium also increased by 8%, with a value rate improvement of 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [11] - The mainland China NBV experienced a decline of 4%, but if excluding economic assumption changes, it would have increased by 10%. The annualized premium decreased by 7%, while the value rate improved by 1.9 percentage points to 58.6% [11] Shareholder Returns - The operating profit for the first half of 2025 was $3.609 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase, primarily due to stable CSM releases and positive contributions from operational differences and risk adjustments [11] - The company completed a $1.6 billion share buyback in July 2025, returning $3.71 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in the first half of 2025 [11]

美银证券发布研报称，友邦保险(01299)上半年纯利同比跌24%至25亿美元，以固定汇率计算，集团新业 务价值同比升14%至28亿美元，稍低于该行预期，新业务价值利润率由去年上半年的53.9%升至57.7%。 友邦保险于上半年回购约19亿美元后，内含价值同比升4%至709亿美元。该行指，将公司在2025年至 2027年盈利预测下调8%至11%，以反映保险合约净财政开支预测被上调，其目标价由92.2港元下调至90 港元，其评级为"买入"。 报告指，管理层在业绩后会议详细讲述内地市场策略，即使内地传统上是友邦最大市场之一，如此程度 的重视反映友邦对内地市场进一步深耕密植。此外，香港市场的监管改变属重要驱动力。上半年友邦在 香港市场新业务价值同比升24%，单计次季升约30%，主要由访港内地旅客需求带动，因受本港7月起 实施分红保单利益说明演示回报率上限之前的销售催谷影响，代理在次季加快销售步伐，因为可展示更 进取的预测。 ...