Group 1 - China Shengmu (01432) shares rose over 10%, reaching 0.33 HKD with a trading volume of 6.1415 million HKD [1] - China Shengmu Organic Dairy Co., Ltd. was awarded the title of "Benchmark Enterprise" for the "Animal-Friendly Farm Level Evaluation Standard," becoming one of the first companies in China to receive this certification [1] - The T/CVDA 38-2025 "Animal-Friendly Farm Level Evaluation - Dairy Cattle" standard was released, with China Shengmu being a key drafting unit, contributing significantly to its formulation [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities indicated that raw milk prices are at a low point, awaiting a new cycle, with expectations for a prolonged upward cycle due to long recovery periods and low efficiency [1] - The current phase of cow capacity reduction is nearing its end, and the financial pressure from Q3 silage purchases may accelerate the clearing of marginal costs, leading to a potential rebound in raw milk prices [1] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have more prominent profitability [1]

Group 1 - China Shengmu (01432) shares rose over 10%, currently up 10.00% at HKD 0.33, with a trading volume of HKD 6.1415 million [1] - China Shengmu Organic Dairy Co., Ltd. has been awarded the title of "Benchmark Enterprise" under the "Animal-Friendly Farm Level Evaluation Standard," becoming one of the first companies in China to receive "Animal-Friendly" farm certification [1] - The T/CVDA 38-2025 "Animal-Friendly Farm Level Evaluation - Dairy Cattle" standard was released, with China Shengmu being a key drafting unit, contributing significantly to the standard's formulation [1] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities (601162) indicates that raw milk prices are stabilizing at low levels, awaiting a new cycle [1] - Due to long recovery periods and low efficiency, the current upward cycle is expected to last longer [1] - The current reduction in dairy cow capacity may be nearing its end, and the financial pressure from Q3 silage purchases could accelerate the clearing process, with raw milk prices likely to bottom out and rebound [1] - Companies with cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model are expected to have stronger profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The beef import market is characterized by high concentration, dominated by South America and growing imports from Australia [4][18] - In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports are expected to decline in volume but increase in price, with a total import of 1.3 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% and an average price of 18.39 yuan per jin, an increase of 8.4% [4][40] - Import policies are tightening, with increased tariffs and stricter qualification requirements for importers, particularly affecting U.S. beef imports [4][59] Summary by Sections 1. Major Beef Import Countries - The top six countries accounted for over 93% of total beef imports in 2023-2025H1, with Brazil leading at 46%, followed by Argentina and Australia [4][14] - Australia has become the third-largest beef supplier to China, benefiting from the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and U.S.-China trade tensions [4][26] 2. Changes in Beef Imports - In the first half of 2025, China's beef imports are projected to decrease in volume while prices rise, reflecting a tightening supply from overseas and an upgrade in domestic consumption [4][40] - The average price of imported beef has increased due to tightening global supply, reducing the price advantage of imported beef over domestic products [4][42] 3. Investment Recommendations - With the expected decline in import volumes and tightening import policies, domestic beef prices are likely to rise, benefiting high-quality livestock companies [4][59] - Companies such as YouRan MuYe, Modern MuYe, and China Shengmu are recommended for their potential to capitalize on rising beef prices [4][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating, emphasizing the resilience of leading companies and the valuation recovery opportunities in the livestock and restaurant chains [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that national beer companies have shown stable revenue and profit performance, while regional companies exhibit better elasticity in performance. The cost decline has contributed to gross profit growth, and the improvement in expense ratios is gradually releasing profitability [5][24]. - In the snack food sector, the report notes a divergence in channel performance, with emerging channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets maintaining high momentum, while traditional channels face challenges. The focus is shifting from revenue growth to profitability logic [25]. - The restaurant chain sector is experiencing a bottoming out of fundamentals and sentiment, with a gradual recovery expected as policies adjust and consumption peaks approach. The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies like Haidilao and Guangzhou Restaurant [29][31]. - The livestock sector is anticipated to see a fundamental reversal as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu [36][45]. Summary by Sections Beer - National beer companies have demonstrated operational resilience, with stable revenue growth driven primarily by volume recovery. Regional companies like Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer have shown stronger revenue performance [12][13]. - Cost improvements from raw material price declines and stable pricing have driven gross margin increases for beer companies. The report anticipates continued upward potential in the beer sector as terminal demand gradually recovers [18][24]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector is characterized by a split in channel performance, with new channels like bulk snacks and membership supermarkets thriving, while traditional channels face challenges. The report emphasizes the importance of profitability over revenue growth moving forward [25][26]. - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yuyuan Foods are highlighted for their strong performance in emerging channels, while others are advised to focus on cost optimization to enhance profitability [25][26]. Restaurant Chains - The restaurant sector has been under pressure due to policies and competition, but a recovery is expected as restrictions ease and consumption peaks. The report suggests focusing on companies with low valuations and potential for recovery, such as Haidilao and Green Tea Group [29][31]. - The report notes that the overall restaurant revenue for H1 2025 was 2.75 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.3% increase, but with high-end dining facing significant challenges [29][30]. Livestock - The livestock sector is expected to see a turnaround as raw milk prices stabilize and beef prices rise, which could significantly enhance profitability for companies like China Shengmu. The report indicates that the most challenging phase for livestock companies may be over [36][45]. - The report highlights that the decline in raw milk prices has pressured revenue, but a stabilization is anticipated, which could improve the valuation of biological assets and overall profitability [36][38].

Core Insights - The overall domestic dairy industry is under significant pressure, with over 60% of companies experiencing a decline in revenue year-on-year, while net profits show mixed results [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The 28 listed dairy companies achieved a total revenue of 190.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.05%, and a net profit of 12.40 billion yuan, down 14.83% [2] - Cash flow from operating activities totaled 4.94 billion yuan, down 31.72%, while R&D expenses increased by 14.99% to 0.70 billion yuan [2] - Five companies reported revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Yili and Mengniu dominating the market, accounting for 54% of total revenue and 74.6% of net profit among the 28 companies [2] Group 2: Trends and Challenges - Among the 28 companies, 17 reported a decline in revenue, with only 2 companies achieving over 10% growth [3] - The industry faces challenges such as supply-demand imbalances and changes in consumer demand and retail channels, prompting companies to innovate and optimize product structures [3][4] - Yili's liquid milk business saw an 11.22% revenue decline, while other segments like ice cream and cheese experienced double-digit growth [3] Group 3: Raw Milk Sector - The raw milk sector remains in a loss adjustment phase, but leading companies are showing resilience through cost control and strategic adjustments [5][6] - Modern Dairy maintained stable cash flow with a 23.3% increase in net cash flow, while costs for milk sales and feed decreased by 10.1% and 11.4%, respectively [5] - China Shengmu Organic Milk's revenue fell by 3.11%, but losses narrowed by 66.37% due to a focus on organic milk and cost reduction strategies [5] Group 4: Product Segments - The milk powder segment showed signs of recovery, with Yili's milk powder and dairy products revenue increasing by 14.26% [7] - Mengniu's milk powder revenue grew slightly, while H&H International's baby nutrition business reported 2.5 billion yuan in revenue, marking a strong performance [7] - The ice cream market thrived due to high temperatures, with Mengniu's ice cream revenue growing by 15% and Yili leading the market with 8.23 billion yuan in revenue [8] Group 5: Future Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to see a recovery trend, with leading companies leveraging full-chain layouts and technological innovations to stabilize their positions [8] - Analysts suggest that companies need to balance value cultivation and differentiated competition to build long-term competitiveness in changing consumer landscapes [8]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年8月31日 狀態: 新提交 FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年9月1日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01432 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.00001 HKD | | | 300,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a significant reduction in losses for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.651 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. The sales revenue was 1.444 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.11% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company reduced losses to 48 million RMB from 95 million RMB. Cash EBITDA increased by 19.7% to 484 million RMB [5] - The company has improved its per unit production, with a low proportion of breeding cows, which provides ample support for future production capacity. The sales volume for the first half of the year was 373,000 tons, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, benefiting from a 1.7% increase in per unit production to 12.27 tons and an increase in the number and proportion of breeding cows, which currently stands at 44.9%, up 1.4 percentage points from the end of 2024 [6] - The beef business turned profitable, with revenue reaching 145 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 616.98%, and sales volume of 15,010 heads, a year-on-year increase of 502.3%. The average selling price increased by 19%, achieving a gross profit of 3 million RMB, compared to a loss of 15 million RMB in the same period last year [7] - Cost improvements offset most of the downward pressure from milk prices, but the valuation of breeding cows per head was still adjusted downwards, indicating that the fundamentals need to reverse. The average sales cost of milk decreased to 2.89 RMB/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%, partially offsetting the gross margin pressure from the decline in raw milk prices [8] Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 70 million, 600 million, and 850 million RMB respectively, with the previous values being -47 million, 436 million, and 709 million RMB. The PE ratio for 2026 is projected to be 5 times [9] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to be 2.986 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.47%. The net profit for 2025 is projected to be 733 million RMB, with a significant year-on-year increase of 211.94% [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that China Shengmu reported a revenue of approximately 1.65 billion yuan for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The company achieved a loss attributable to shareholders of 48.32 million yuan, which represents a significant narrowing of 66.4% compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Shengmu (01432.HK) reported a mid-term performance for the six months ending June 30, 2025, with revenue of 1.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% and a narrowed loss attributable to shareholders of 48.32 million yuan, down 66.4% from the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ending June 30, 2025, was 1.65 billion yuan, representing a 5.3% increase year-on-year [1] - Loss attributable to shareholders was 48.32 million yuan, which is a 66.4% reduction compared to the same period last year [1] - The board of directors did not recommend the payment of an interim dividend for the six months ending June 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Business Operations - The company focuses on dairy cattle breeding, producing and selling high-end desert organic raw milk, organic A2 raw milk, and DHA raw milk [1] - The company operates 34 farms, including one beef cattle farm, with a total livestock population of 146,516 heads, of which 143,553 are dairy cows [1] - The proportion of lactating cows is 44.9%, while the number of beef cattle has decreased by 9,070 heads compared to the end of the previous year, with a focus on high-end breeds such as Wagyu and Angus [1] Group 3: Product Strategy - The company continues to develop various functional raw milk products to meet diverse customer demands for high-quality raw milk [1] - The "high-end + diversification" product strategy provides a significant competitive advantage in the dairy cattle breeding industry [1]

Group 1 - The company, China Shengmu, reported a revenue of 1.651 billion RMB for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The loss attributable to the owners of the parent company narrowed to 48.322 million RMB, a decrease of 66.4% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share was reported at 0.006 RMB [1]