Group 1 - China Shengmu (01432) saw its stock price increase by over 11% in the afternoon, with a cumulative increase of over 50% in the month [1] - The recent implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" by the Central Committee and the State Council is expected to stimulate demand and consumer confidence in the infant formula industry, which has faced pressure in recent years [1] - The policy is viewed as a significant top-down initiative, with expectations for regional policies to follow, potentially leading to a recovery in demand for infant formula by 2025 [1] Group 2 - China Shengmu is the first organic milk brand to receive dual certification from China and the EU, covering the entire dairy industry value chain from pasture planting to high-end liquid milk production [1] - The company is the largest organic raw milk producer in China and has established deep equity ties with downstream dairy enterprises, which helps stabilize raw milk price fluctuations and gain support from these enterprises [1] - Mengniu Group holds a 29.99% stake in China Shengmu, making it the largest shareholder [1]

Group 1 - China Shengmu (01432) saw its stock price increase by over 11%, with a cumulative rise of more than 50% in the month [1] - The recent implementation of a nationwide cash subsidy for child-rearing by the central government is expected to boost demand and consumer confidence in the infant formula industry, which has faced pressure in recent years [1] - The demand for infant formula is anticipated to improve in 2025, driven by the new policy and a favorable demographic trend due to the 2024 zodiac preference [1] Group 2 - China Shengmu is the first organic milk brand to receive dual certification from China and the EU, covering the entire dairy industry value chain from pasture planting to high-end liquid milk production [1] - The company is the largest organic raw milk producer in China and has established deep equity ties with downstream dairy enterprises, which helps stabilize raw milk price fluctuations and secures support from these enterprises [1] - Mengniu Group holds a 29.99% stake in China Shengmu, making it the largest shareholder [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.09%, gaining 22 points to close at 24,929 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.39%. The morning trading volume in Hong Kong was HKD 110.2 billion [1] - Dairy stocks led the gains, with expectations that fertility subsidies will boost dairy product demand. Institutions noted that the meat and milk cycle is favorable for livestock companies. Notable stock performances include: Aoyuan Group up 35.62%, Modern Farming up 15%, and China Shengmu up 13% [1] - Hong Teng Precision (06088) saw a rise of over 7% due to the mass production ramp-up of its GB200 series products, while BYD Electronics (00285) increased by over 4% [1] - Zhonghui Biotechnology-B (02627) surged over 16% on its second day of trading, following a nearly 158% increase the previous day, with a total market capitalization exceeding HKD 15 billion [1] - Ping An Good Doctor (01833) rose by 5.6%, reporting significant achievements in its medical AI products and ongoing optimization of its business structure [1] - Huachen China (01114) increased by over 9%, with expected profit growth of 13% to 16% for the first half of the year [1] - Zhenjiu Lidu (06979) rose by over 8%, with institutions suggesting that policy variables are accelerating industry clearing, and performance bottoming is expected as early as the first half of next year [1] Group 2 - Lithium stocks fell in early trading, with strong expectations of a contraction in lithium supply. Analysts indicated that the overall demand increase for the second half of the year lacks imagination. Tianqi Lithium (09696) dropped by 8%, and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) fell by 5% [2]

Group 1 - Dairy stocks have seen significant gains, with Australia Asia Group rising by 35.62% to HKD 1.98, Modern Dairy up by 13.49% to HKD 1.43, and others like Original Ecology Dairy and China Shengmu also experiencing increases [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" starting January 1, 2025, will provide annual subsidies of HKD 3,600 per child for infants under three years old, potentially leading to an annual distribution of approximately HKD 100 billion, which is expected to boost demand in the dairy sector [1] - The meat and milk cycle is positively impacting livestock companies, with rising beef prices expected to enhance profitability and cash flow for companies like Yuran Dairy, Modern Dairy, and China Shengmu, with projected revenue increases of HKD 440 million, HKD 340 million, and HKD 80 million respectively under a 40% increase in beef prices [1] Group 2 - The upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, benefiting the raw milk supply structure and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1] - There is a recommendation to prioritize investment in leading livestock companies listed in Hong Kong due to the favorable market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy sector stocks have seen significant gains following the announcement of a new child-rearing subsidy policy, which is expected to boost demand for dairy products and improve the financial outlook for related companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Australia Asia Group (02425) increased by 35.62%, trading at 1.98 HKD [1] - Modern Farming (01117) rose by 13.49%, trading at 1.43 HKD [1] - Yuan Ecological Agriculture (01431) gained 9.21%, trading at 0.415 HKD [1] - China Shengmu (01432) increased by 7.95%, trading at 0.475 HKD [1] - Youran Dairy (09858) rose by 8.19%, trading at 4.36 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly introduced child-rearing subsidy will provide 3,600 RMB per child annually for children under three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [1] - The annual issuance of these subsidies is estimated to be around 100 billion RMB, which could have a multiplier effect on demand in the dairy sector [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rising prices of beef cattle are expected to enhance the profitability and cash flow of livestock companies [1] - Under a scenario where cattle prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, it is projected that Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of 440 million, 340 million, and 80 million RMB respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices may accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1] - The focus is recommended on leading livestock companies listed in Hong Kong [1]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new child-rearing subsidy policy in China is expected to significantly boost demand in the dairy industry, leading to notable stock price increases for major dairy companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Dairy stocks have seen substantial gains, with Australia Asia Group (02425) rising by 35.62% to HKD 1.98, Modern Farming (01117) up 13.49% to HKD 1.43, and others like Original Ecology Farming (01431) and China Shengmu (01432) also experiencing increases [1] - The overall positive sentiment in the dairy sector is reflected in the stock performance of leading companies [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - The newly implemented child-rearing subsidy scheme will provide annual subsidies of CNY 3,600 per child for children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, potentially leading to an annual distribution of approximately CNY 100 billion [1] - This subsidy is expected to have a multiplier effect, enhancing demand for dairy products and benefiting the industry as a whole [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current meat and milk cycle is favorable for livestock companies, with rising beef prices expected to improve profitability and cash flow for these firms [1] - Projections indicate that under a scenario where beef prices increase by 40% compared to 2024 levels, companies like Yuran Farming, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu could see revenue increases of CNY 440 million, CNY 340 million, and CNY 80 million respectively from cattle sales [1] - The upward trend in beef prices is anticipated to accelerate the clearing of social ranch inventories, positively impacting the supply of raw milk and subsequently influencing raw milk prices [1]

| 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02425 | 澳亚集团 | (0) | 1.650 | 13.01% | | 01432 | 中国圣牧 | | 0.480 | 9.09% | | 01117 | 现代牧业 | | 1.360 | 7.94% | | 09858 | 优然牧业 | | 4.340 | 7.69% | | 01431 | 原生态牧业 | | 0.395 | 3.95% | | 02319 | 蒙牛乳业 | | 16.320 | 0.12% | 消息上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生 育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低家 庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000多 万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 另外，华泰证券最新报告指，在全球供应链调整和消费升级的共同推动下，中国乳制品行业正迎来 从"规模扩张"向"价值提升"的战 ...

国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 本文源自：智通财经网 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 ...

乳业股午后拉升，截至发稿，中国圣牧(01432)涨12.66%，报0.445港元；优然牧业(09858)涨8.87%，报 4.05港元；现代牧业(01117)涨8.77%，报1.24港元；原生态牧业(01431)涨7.14%，报0.375港元。 国泰海通证券指出，"国补"正式进入生育领域，测算年均发放育儿补贴约千亿，有望发挥乘数效应且有 加码可能，提振乳品等行业需求。招商证券也指出，生育补贴正式落地，政策力度符合此前预期、但靴 子落地仍是积极信号，体现政府对生育问题的高重视度。在全国政策落地与后续地方政策跟进的节奏 下，乳制品板块关注度有望提升。 消息面上，7月28日，《育儿补贴制度实施方案》出台，方案为2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定 生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放每孩每年3600元的补贴，至其年满3周岁。爱建证券指出，这一政策对降低 家庭生育成本、刺激出生率及婴幼儿家庭消费潜力有重大意义（特别是在低线城市），预计将惠及2000 多万婴幼儿家庭，有望直接拉动乳制品特别是婴幼儿奶粉消费。 ...

Group 1 - Dairy stocks experienced a significant rise, with China Shengmu (01432) up 12.66% to HKD 0.445, YouRan Dairy (09858) up 8.87% to HKD 4.05, Modern Dairy (01117) up 8.77% to HKD 1.24, and Original Ecology Dairy (01431) up 7.14% to HKD 0.375 [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" starting January 1, 2025, will provide a subsidy of HKD 3,600 per child per year for families with children under three years old, significantly reducing family childcare costs and stimulating birth rates and consumption potential in infant families, especially in lower-tier cities [1] - The annual distribution of childcare subsidies is estimated to be around HKD 100 billion, which is expected to have a multiplier effect and potentially increase demand in the dairy industry [1] Group 2 - The formal introduction of the national subsidy into the fertility sector reflects the government's high emphasis on fertility issues, with the dairy sector likely to see increased attention as national policies are implemented and followed by local policies [1] - The policy's alignment with previous expectations and its positive signal upon implementation indicate a strong governmental commitment to addressing fertility challenges, which is anticipated to boost the dairy product sector, particularly infant formula consumption [1]