香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 CHINA SHENGMU ORGANIC MILK LIMITED 中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：1432） 內幕消息 訴訟更新 本公告乃由中國聖牧有機奶業有限公司（「本公司」）根據上市規則第13.09(2)(a)條及 香港法例第571章證券及期貨條例第XIVA部之內幕消息條文（定義見上市規則）作 出。 茲提述本公司日期為二零二一年九月十六日及二零二一年十月二十二日的公告，內 容有關中國法院就一名據稱根據投資協議收購本公司股份的原告人向聖牧高科及前 董事提出的申索作出判決（「該等公告」）。除非另有界定，否則本公告所使用的詞彙 與該等公告所界定者具有相同涵義。 – 1 – 根據最終判決，聖牧高科及前董事被下令共同承擔： 於本公告日期，中國法院尚未解除凍結結餘（包括聖牧高科的若干銀行賬戶總結餘 約人民幣85.7百萬元及聖牧高科所持有的附屬公司巴彥淖爾市聖牧六和牧業 ...

Summary of China Shengmu's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Shengmu - **Industry**: Organic Dairy Market in China Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Growth - The demand for organic milk in China is growing, benefiting Shengmu as the largest organic farm in the country due to consumer preference for high-end, healthy products [2][3] - The optimistic market outlook is supported by rising per capita consumption levels, which will further drive the organic milk market [2] Raw Milk and Beef Prices - Raw milk prices have been declining since 2021, but the rate of decline has slowed, with prices expected to stabilize as production capacity nears clearance [2][4] - Beef prices have rebounded since 2023 due to anti-dumping policies and supply shortages, significantly improving Shengmu's profit performance [2][4] Financial Projections - Shengmu is expected to incur losses in 2025 but conservatively estimated to achieve a profit of approximately 400 million yuan in 2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of about 5 times, indicating significant valuation upside compared to peers [2][6] - The company maintains a gross margin of around 30% and exhibits strong financial metrics, including cash ratios [2][4] Competitive Advantages - Shengmu's raw milk sales price has consistently remained around 4 yuan, with a high proportion of specialty milk (organic, A2, etc.) enhancing its defensive and operational resilience during price downturns [2][24] - The geographical advantage of being located in the Ulan Buh Desert provides ample underground water and fertile soil, supporting feed crop cultivation [2][25] - The partnership with Mengniu ensures stable milk supply, with a structure requiring over 80% of milk to be supplied to Mengniu [2][22] Industry Dynamics - The Chinese dairy processing industry is characterized by a fragmented upstream supply of dairy farms, while midstream and downstream sectors are dominated by major players like Yili and Mengniu [2][7] - The scarcity of upstream breeding resources is pushing the industry towards larger-scale operations, with only about 2% of farms having over 100 cows as of 2022 [2][8][9] Future Trends - The global organic food market is valued at hundreds of billions, with China's market expected to continue double-digit growth, indicating a strong future for high-end organic products [2][21] - Shengmu's unique position as the first brand to receive dual organic certification from China and the EU enhances its market standing [2][23] Profitability and Valuation - The stabilization and potential rebound of milk prices will significantly enhance the fair value of biological assets, with a potential increase of 240 million yuan if each cow appreciates by 1,000 yuan [2][27] - The beef business, which was previously a loss-maker, is expected to contribute positively to profits in 2025 due to rising beef prices [2][28] Challenges and Risks - The industry faces challenges such as high costs associated with feed crop cultivation and environmental management for large-scale farms [2][11] - Socialized farms are under pressure due to low profitability and high debt levels, leading to a potential wave of exits from the market [2][16][17] Conclusion - Shengmu's focus on high-margin organic products, strategic partnerships, and favorable market conditions position it well for future growth, despite short-term challenges and expected losses in 2025 [2][26][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China Shengmu, as a leading organic raw milk producer, is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-end organic milk driven by rising consumer spending levels [1][2] - China Shengmu is the first brand in China to obtain dual certification for organic standards from both China and the EU, covering the entire dairy industry value chain from pasture planting to high-end liquid milk production [1] - The company has a significant geographical advantage, operating in the Ulan Buh Desert of Inner Mongolia, recognized as a prime milk source, which enhances its competitive edge in ensuring milk quality and safety [1] Group 2 - Current raw milk prices have declined from a peak of 4.38 RMB/kg to 3.04 RMB/kg, but the decline has narrowed, indicating a potential stabilization in milk prices [2] - Beef prices have also stabilized after a decline in 2023, which, along with the expected recovery in milk prices, is anticipated to significantly improve the company's profit performance [2] - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be -0.47 billion, 4.36 billion, and 7.09 billion RMB respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 5.5 for 2026, which is significantly lower than the average PE of comparable companies [2]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The domestic economic recovery shows continued differentiation, with resilient consumer market recovery and ongoing growth in logistics volume [2][7] - As of July 11, the average duration of long-term government bonds has risen to approximately 5.4 years, while the average duration of credit bonds remains stable at about 2.2 years [8][9] - The report suggests a narrow fluctuation in interest rate bonds for Q3 2025, with a bullish outlook on long-term municipal and capital bonds [9][14] Group 2: Financial Data Overview - In June 2025, new loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, and social financing reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with M2 growing by 8.3% year-on-year [11][13] - The report indicates a significant increase in social financing growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [12][13] - The report anticipates a slight increase in new loans for 2025, driven by government bond financing and credit [11][13] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - China Shengmu (01432.HK) - China Shengmu is the first organic raw milk brand to obtain dual certification from China and the EU, and it is the largest organic raw milk producer in China [22][23] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of the high-end organic milk market as consumer demand for healthy food increases [23][24] - The report forecasts a significant recovery in profits due to the anticipated stabilization of milk and beef prices, which have previously negatively impacted the company's financial performance [23][24] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Crystal Technology (603005.SH) - Crystal Technology is a leading supplier of WLCSP advanced packaging, focusing on CMOS image sensor chips and expanding into new fields such as optical devices and GaN devices [25][26] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the increasing demand for automotive CIS, with a projected revenue of 1.13 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.72% [25][26] - The report highlights the company's strong competitive advantage with a gross margin of 43.28%, which is significantly higher than its peers [26][28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3] Core Views - The company is a leading organic raw milk producer in China, with a fundamental reversal expected [3] - The company has obtained dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU, making it a prominent player in the organic milk market [6] - The company operates across the entire dairy value chain, from pasture planting to raw milk production and high-end liquid milk processing [6] - The high-end organic milk market is anticipated to continue expanding due to rising consumer demand for healthy food options [6] - The company benefits from a unique geographical advantage in Inner Mongolia, recognized as a prime milk source region [6] - A rebound in milk and beef prices is expected to enhance the company's fundamental performance [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,383.63 million RMB - 2024: 3,126.18 million RMB - 2025E: 2,989.43 million RMB - 2026E: 3,207.90 million RMB - 2027E: 3,447.21 million RMB - The expected growth rates show a decline in 2024 and 2025, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The projected net profit for 2025 is -47.31 million RMB, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2026 is estimated at 5.51, significantly lower than the average P/E of comparable companies at 9.6 [6]

Summary of China Shengmu's Conference Call Industry Overview - The raw milk market price in the first half of 2025 is higher than the same period last year, alleviating some financial pressure on companies and delaying the industry's exit speed [2][3] - The industry exit is characterized by a staggered approach, with different types of farms exiting at different stages, leading to a slowdown in overall exit speed [2][3] - The market anticipates a turning point in milk prices in Q3 2025, prompting many farms to continue operations instead of exiting immediately [2][3] Company Insights - China Shengmu's high-quality raw milk products (including organic milk, DHA, A2) account for over 80% of its offerings, primarily supplying Mengniu, with 85% of sales directed to them [2][8] - A three-year strategic agreement and annual milk sales agreement with Mengniu are in place, with milk prices following market trends without locking in prices [2][10][11] - The price of specialty milk has decreased slightly but remains above 4 RMB, with last year's average milk price around 4.4 RMB, showing a decline of less than a single-digit percentage [2][12] - The company expects its annual revenue to remain flat or see slight growth compared to last year, with profits dependent on milk and beef prices in the second half of the year [2][14] Financial Performance - The cash flow situation for the first half of 2025 is stable or slightly down due to lower milk prices, but free cash flow has improved due to reduced investment spending [2][20] - The company is currently in a cash loss state when considering the costs of raising calves, with an average milk price of 4.4 RMB and cash operating costs around 3 RMB [2][7] - The overall milk sales cost is high, particularly due to a large proportion of replacement calves, which increases cash pressure [2][25] Market Dynamics - The supply and demand dynamics are expected to change, with potential market clearing in Q3 2025 now anticipated to be pushed to Q3 2026 [2][26][27] - Factors that could accelerate market clearing include cash flow issues leading to liquidity problems for large farms and significant increases in beef prices [2][28] - The demand for high-end dairy products, especially organic products, continues to grow, with Mengniu's order demand remaining stable [2][15][17] Future Outlook - China Shengmu has no plans for expansion and aims to maintain its current scale while improving efficiency and reducing costs [2][4][18] - The company plans to gradually increase its dividend payout ratio to 30%, depending on profit and cash flow improvements [2][19] - The proportion of breeding cows is expected to increase gradually, contributing positively to production levels [2][30] Additional Considerations - The company does not track overall industry data closely, focusing instead on maintaining quality and meeting supply agreements with core customers [2][5] - The cash cost of feed is approximately 2.65 RMB, slightly above the industry average due to the use of organic feed [2][8]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 14, a total of 138 stocks reached their 52-week highs, indicating a strong performance in the market, with notable leaders including Green Heart Group Holdings, OK Blockchain, and Pearl River Steel Pipe [1]. Group 1: Top Performers - Green Heart Group Holdings (02999) achieved a closing price of 0.013 with a peak of 0.017, marking a 70.00% increase [1]. - OK Blockchain (01499) closed at 0.680, reaching a high of 0.690, reflecting a 48.39% rise [1]. - Pearl River Steel Pipe (01938) had a closing price of 0.335 and a peak of 0.340, resulting in a 33.33% increase [1]. Group 2: Other Notable Stocks - Weishi Jiajie (00856) saw a 32.01% increase, closing at 8.870 with a high of 11.300 [1]. - Cloud Intelligence (09678) reached a high of 520.000, closing at 510.000, which is a 20.99% increase [1]. - China Chengtong Development Group (00217) closed at 0.165 with a peak of 0.166, marking a 14.48% rise [1]. Group 3: Additional Stocks with Significant Increases - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460) closed at 1.380, reaching a high of 1.430, which is a 14.40% increase [1]. - Taited Pharmaceutical (03880) had a closing price of 36.950 and a peak of 37.400, reflecting a 13.85% rise [1]. - Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) closed at 0.850 with a high of 0.960, resulting in a 12.94% increase [1].

Summary of China Shengmu's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Shengmu - **Industry**: Organic Dairy Farming - **Market Position**: One of the largest suppliers of desert organic raw milk in China, holding approximately 35%-40% market share alongside Yili's YouRan Dairy [2][4]. Strategic Transformation - **Focus Shift**: Transitioned from a full-chain dairy product company to specializing in upstream cattle farming, selling downstream operations to Mengniu in 2019 [4]. - **Current Strategy**: Concentration on desert organic raw milk production, maintaining a stable customer base with 85% of raw milk sales to Mengniu [2][6]. Financial Performance - **Profitability Amid Price Decline**: Despite a downward trend in milk prices since 2021, China Shengmu has maintained a price premium of approximately 30% for organic raw milk compared to regular raw milk, helping sustain profit margins [5]. - **Cost Control**: Average selling price of raw milk in 2024 is projected at 4.4 RMB per kg, exceeding the industry average by about 1 RMB, with total costs controlled at around 3.31 RMB per kg [10]. - **Debt and Expense Ratios**: The company has a debt ratio of about 50% and a low expense ratio of less than 0.4 RMB per kg, indicating a solid financial position [8]. Cattle Management - **Herd Composition**: As of 2024, the company has approximately 157,000 cattle, with 147,000 being dairy cows. The proportion of breeding cows is about 42%, which is lower than the industry average, allowing for potential growth when milk prices recover [7]. - **Valuation of Cattle**: The average valuation per cow is less than 20,000 RMB, not fully reflecting the organic certification value, indicating significant asset appreciation potential in a market upturn [9]. Market Dynamics - **Beef Price Impact**: Rising beef prices positively affect profits through increased cash recovery from culling cows and direct profitability from beef operations. The price of culled cows has risen from under 500 RMB to approximately 1,000-1,200 RMB per head [14]. - **Culling Strategy**: The company plans to maintain a culling rate of about 70,000 dairy cows annually, with a focus on retaining more heifers to enhance future production capacity [41]. Industry Challenges - **Current Market Conditions**: The dairy industry is facing cash flow challenges due to low milk prices and high operational costs, leading to widespread losses among farms [12][13]. - **Future Price Outlook**: It is unlikely that milk prices will return to the highs of 2021 due to weaker demand and structural changes in the industry [32][33]. Future Prospects - **Production Growth**: The company anticipates a modest annual growth of 5%-7% in herd size under current market conditions, with no significant expansion plans due to market uncertainties [40]. - **Investment in Genetics**: Recent imports of high-quality dairy cattle are expected to improve herd quality and production efficiency in the long term [38]. Additional Insights - **Cash Flow Assessment**: The evaluation of cash flow is primarily based on free cash flow, which includes regular milk sales and capital expenditures related to raising calves [20][21]. - **Market Recovery Potential**: The company remains cautiously optimistic about future profitability, contingent on market recovery and improved demand dynamics [40]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction, financial health, market dynamics, and future outlook of China Shengmu in the organic dairy industry.

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the dairy industry in China, specifically focusing on the company China Shengmu (中国圣牧) and its operations in the dairy farming sector, including milk and beef cattle production. Key Points and Arguments Dairy Cattle Market Dynamics - **Slower Culling Rate**: The culling rate of dairy cows has slowed down due to stable sales channels, alleviated cost pressures, high raw milk prices, and rising beef prices. The market turning point may be delayed until 2026 [2][3][4]. - **Raw Milk Prices**: The price of raw milk is expected to remain low, with some farms potentially opting for quicker culling under current beef prices [5][6]. - **Profitability Challenges for Social Farms**: Social farms face significant profitability challenges, with a breakeven point around 3 RMB/kg for raw milk. Including calf costs leads to widespread losses [2][7][8]. Beef Cattle Market Influence - **Rising Beef Prices**: Beef prices have increased from 14-15 RMB/kg to approximately 19 RMB/kg, prompting some farms to cull inefficient dairy cows. However, some farmers are holding out for a milk price recovery [9][10]. - **Market Strategy Adjustments**: Social farms are adjusting their strategies more flexibly, with some opting to shift towards beef cattle farming due to better market certainty [9][12]. Financial and Credit Environment - **Tightened Bank Credit Policies**: Banks have become stricter with credit policies compared to last year, although support may still be available for farms with stable sales channels [14][15]. - **Feed Supply Issues**: Many social farms faced low feed reserves last year, leading to feed shortages and potential quality issues [16][17]. Market Expectations and Price Fluctuations - **Divergent Expectations on Milk Price Recovery**: There are differing opinions on when milk prices will recover, with some expecting a rise in Q3 or Q4 of 2025, while others believe it may take longer [4][18]. - **Impact of Downstream Dairy Companies**: The strategy of downstream dairy companies regarding milk collection significantly impacts farm cash flow, often more than milk price fluctuations [4][20]. Cost Structures and Profitability - **Cash Cost Composition**: The cash cost of fresh milk is complex, with current costs around 2.3-2.4 RMB/kg excluding calves, and approximately 3 RMB/kg including calves [35][36]. - **Profitability Under Current Prices**: At current milk prices (around 3 RMB/kg), farms are likely operating at a loss, with losses estimated between 0.1 to 0.5 RMB/kg depending on calf numbers [36]. Future Outlook - **Potential for Price Stabilization**: If demand conditions do not change significantly, a clear turning point in the fresh milk market is unlikely in the short term, with potential stabilization only expected in early 2026 [5][23]. - **Beef Price Impact on Industry**: A significant increase in beef prices in 2025 could positively affect the entire industry, while stable prices would maintain market balance [32]. Specialty Milk Products - **Organic and Specialty Milk**: The company has a strong focus on organic milk, with about 75-80% of its products being organic. The company aims to increase the proportion of specialty milk to counteract low ordinary milk prices [42][43]. Other Important Insights - **Market Structure and Trends**: The average dairy cow's production cycle and culling age are around 2.9 lactations and 5 years, respectively, indicating a relatively short production cycle driven by economic factors [40][41]. - **A2 Milk Production**: A2 milk production has lower barriers but currently faces limited market demand, with only one farm producing it [44][45]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the challenges and dynamics within the dairy industry, particularly for China Shengmu.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unique conditions of the Ulan Buh Desert in Inner Mongolia, which provide an excellent environment for organic dairy farming, particularly at the China Shengmu Dairy's Sand Gold Ranch, emphasizing the harmonious relationship between nature and agriculture [3][5][7]. Group 1: Environmental Conditions - The Ulan Buh Desert is located in the "Golden Milk Source Belt" of China, characterized by its unique climate, soil, water sources, and sunlight, which are conducive to creating a distinctive organic milk source [3]. - The desert's natural virus isolation conditions and the presence of both sandy areas and lakes contribute to its suitability for organic dairy farming [3]. Group 2: Farming Practices - Workers at China Shengmu Dairy are actively planting silage corn seeds, which are crucial for the dairy cows' diet, taking advantage of the growing season [5]. - The ranch features lush pastures of alfalfa, which are vital for the cows, creating a picturesque landscape that enhances the farming environment [5]. Group 3: Dairy Production - The cows at the ranch not only produce high-quality milk but also act as "mobile organic fertilizer factories," enriching the soil and promoting the growth of pastures [7]. - The organic milk produced in the desert is noted for its natural richness and exceptional quality, reflecting a vision of harmonious coexistence between humans and nature [7][8]. Group 4: Animal Welfare - The dairy cows at China Shengmu Dairy enjoy high welfare standards, including comfortable bedding and a customized diet formulated by nutritionists, ensuring their health and productivity [8].