Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend in early trading, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 3.61% to HKD 54.55 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) also saw an increase of 3.19%, reaching HKD 58.30 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks have seen an early rise, driven by a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures and changes in export tax policies affecting battery products [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianqi Lithium (09696) rose by 4.46%, trading at 55 HKD [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 3.45%, trading at 58.45 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the upper limit with a 9% increase, reaching 156,060 RMB per ton [1] - Analysts suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April to "rush exports," positively impacting short-term lithium carbonate demand [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially increasing costs that may be passed on to end consumers, which could suppress long-term demand [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 4.46% to HKD 55 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increasing by 3.45% to HKD 58.45 [1] - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit the upper limit, increasing by 9% to CNY 156,060 per ton [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] Group 2 - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April due to the upcoming changes in export tax policy, which could positively impact short-term demand for lithium carbonate [1] - The anticipated "rush to export" before the tax rebate cancellation may sustain demand for lithium carbonate until 2027, providing short-term price support [1] - However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially leading to increased costs that could suppress long-term demand [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses a new IPO from a company in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, focusing on energy storage, with a valuation of 4.3 billion [1] - The company is set to supply products to major players such as Ganfeng Lithium and State Grid, indicating strong industry connections and potential for growth [1] - The energy storage sector is highlighted as a rapidly growing market, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy solutions [1]

Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is experiencing renewed interest from investors due to clear profitability and order visibility in the supply chain, with a significant focus on achieving mass production by 2027 [2][3][6] - Major automotive companies are targeting 2027 for the application of solid-state batteries in vehicles, with many planning to complete product development or testing by 2026 [4][5] Industry Developments - Companies like Tian Shi Ke Feng have begun to engage with potential investors after overcoming initial funding challenges, with plans to expand production capacity significantly in 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has identified solid-state batteries as a key area for development, aiming to establish 3-5 leading companies by 2027 [3] Technical Challenges - The path to mass production of solid-state batteries is fraught with challenges, including material technology discrepancies and shortages in core equipment [6][8] - The industry is divided on material technology routes, with significant competition between oxide and sulfide electrolytes, each having distinct advantages and challenges [10][12] Material Innovations - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their high energy density and intrinsic safety, making them suitable for various applications, although their cost-effectiveness in electric vehicles remains a concern [7][8] - The development of silicon-carbon and lithium metal anodes is ongoing, with companies reporting progress in small-scale trials [9][10] Equipment and Production - The lack of mature mass production equipment poses a significant barrier, with many companies resorting to self-developed solutions to meet production demands [14][19] - The production process for solid-state batteries requires high precision and specialized equipment, which increases costs and complicates the manufacturing process [20][21] Market Dynamics - The solid-state battery supply chain is characterized by a collaborative approach among suppliers and manufacturers, with a focus on meeting evolving technical requirements from cell manufacturers [23][24] - The competitive landscape is marked by a "race" among cell manufacturers to explore various material suppliers, emphasizing the need for continuous innovation and adaptation [24]

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report (December 29, 2025 - December 31, 2025): High - level Volatility in the Carbonate Lithium Market, Game between Weakening Demand Expectations and Cost Support" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the price of carbonate lithium will maintain a high - level shock pattern under the cost support and weakening demand expectations, with the center of gravity possibly moving slightly downward [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Conditions - **Carbonate Lithium Futures and Spot**: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium spot dropped to 117,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.62%. The futures price of carbonate lithium decreased from 130,520 yuan/ton to 121,580 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6.85%. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the basis was - 4,330 yuan/ton, narrowing by 57.21% week - on - week [2][4] - **Lithium Hydroxide Spot**: The prices of various types of lithium hydroxide spot all increased. The price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, coarse particles) increased from 102,400 yuan/ton to 109,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%; the price of lithium hydroxide (electro - carbon, fine powder) increased from 107,600 yuan/ton to 114,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.60%; the price of lithium hydroxide (industrial carbon) increased from 97,100 yuan/ton to 104,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.31% [4] - **Carbonate Lithium Premium**: The weekly change in the premium of carbonate lithium from different raw materials and enterprises was 200 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **Carbonate Lithium Production**: The domestic carbonate lithium capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 83.52%, and the production in December was expected to increase. The capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide decreased by 2.56 percentage points to 38.0% week - on - week, indicating some production line conversions or overhauls [2] Demand - **Mid - and Downstream Consumption**: The demand side showed differentiation. The operating rate of energy - storage cells remained high, but many leading cathode material manufacturers announced overhaul plans for January, indicating that the downstream demand might decline significantly month - on - month, and procurement turned to rigid demand [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The seasonal production reduction expectation of salt lakes constituted a potential supply disturbance, and the arrival of imported lithium concentrate at ports needed to be monitored [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The transportation costs of lithium ore from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: The exchange warehouse receipt inventory increased to 20,281 lots, a significant week - on - week increase of 13.55%. The inventory in major warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Zhenjiang Warehouse increased significantly, showing inventory accumulation pressure [2][41] Cost and Profit - **Carbonate Lithium**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 124,744 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%. The production profit was - 7,494 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 20.91% week - on - week. The cost line provided some support for the current price [2] Lithium - battery Fundamentals - **Positive Electrode Materials**: Information on the market conditions, supply, demand, and cost - profit of positive electrode materials is included in the report, but specific data is not elaborated in the provided content [45][47][51][57] - **Lithium - battery Materials and Batteries Import and Export**: Information on the import and export of lithium - battery materials and batteries is included, but specific data is not elaborated [53][55] - **New Energy Vehicles**: Information on the production, sales, and other important data of new energy vehicles is included, but specific data is not elaborated [61][63] - **Lithium - battery Recycling**: Information on lithium - battery recycling is included, but specific data is not elaborated [59]

港交所消息：1月6日， 摩根大通 公司持有的 赣锋锂业 （01772.HK）H股淡仓占比从2.24%降至 1.73%。 ...

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest short positions are Vanke Enterprises (02202), Dongfang Electric (01072), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), with short ratios of 18.81%, 18.09%, and 16.45% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in short positions are Lens Technology (06613), Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145), and Youran Dairy (09858), with increases of 2.38%, 0.97%, and 0.64% respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in short positions are Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050), SenseTime-W (00020), and Ganfeng Lithium (01772), with decreases of -1.93%, -1.22%, and -1.06% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten companies with the highest short ratios include Hengrui Medicine (01276) at 15.21%, ZTE Corporation (00763) at 14.26%, and Ping An Insurance (02318) at 14.10% [2] - The companies with the most significant increase in short ratios also include China Merchants Bank (03968) at 7.77% and Laopu Gold (06181) at 4.27% [2] - The companies with the most significant decrease in short ratios also include Zhongchuang Zhiling (00564) at 4.15% and Weichai Power (02338) at 4.93% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in the stock market, particularly in Hong Kong and the US, driven by various company announcements and market trends [1][2][3][5][6][7][8]. Group 2 - 万国数据-SW (09698) saw a rise of over 3.6% following the announcement of a successful C-round financing of $2 billion for its international business platform DayOne [1]. - 智谱 (02513) experienced a surge of over 24% on its second day of trading, becoming the first global large model stock listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1]. - 禾赛-W (02525) increased by over 3% after showcasing its latest lidar technology at CES 2026, along with updates on delivery volume and strategic partnerships [1]. - Lithium battery concept stocks rose, with 中创新航 (03931) up 4.74%, as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a meeting to regulate the battery industry [1]. - 快手-W (01024) gained over 2.3% as Goldman Sachs projected that its AI model upgrades would enhance overseas user recognition and revenue [2]. - 佳鑫国际资源 (03858) rose over 5.4% after announcing a mining service procurement agreement worth approximately 2.27 billion HKD [2]. - Gold stocks generally increased, with 山东黄金 (01787) up 6.01%, driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts supporting gold prices [2]. - 九方智投控股 (09636) rose over 5.6% following the announcement of acquiring JF Financial Company Limited [3]. - 凌雄科技 (02436) surged by over 96.85%, with expectations of significant market penetration in the DaaS sector over the next five years [3]. - 理士国际 (00842) plummeted over 60% after announcing a plan to split and list on the US stock market [3]. - Buda Juice (BUDA.US) debuted on the US market with an 8.13% increase, focusing on fresh juice and health drinks [5]. - 虎牙 (HUYA.US) reached a five-and-a-half-month high, rising 14.47% after the successful launch of a new mobile game [5]. - Applied Digital (APLD.US) led gains in the crypto mining sector with a 250% year-over-year revenue increase [5]. - Critical Metals (CRML.US) saw a near 10% rise but later fell, having gained over 110% in the first five trading days of the year [6]. - 哔哩哔哩 (BILI.US) rose 6.51% as Morgan Stanley noted stable ad performance despite uncertain gaming prospects [6]. - Storage stocks fell, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) down 5.38%, amid concerns over the sustainability of AI-related capital expenditures [6]. - The space sector saw gains, with L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US) up 5.16% after a strategic sale [7]. - Chip stocks declined, with NVIDIA (NVDA.US) down 2.15%, reflecting broader market concerns [7]. - Precious metals stocks fell, with significant drops in silver and gold prices due to liquidity shocks [8].