| 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 %ヘ | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | -7.13% | 28.13 | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | -6.81% | 30.65 | | 300818 | 耐普矿机 | -5.36% | 27.72 | | 600988 | 赤峰黄金 | -5.30% | 30.40 | | 600531 | 豫光金铅 | -4.77% | 13.57 | | 603979 | 金诚信 | -4.53% | 71.49 | | 000975 | 山金国际 | -4.25% | 23.44 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | -4.09% | 41.49 | | 601899 | 紫美矿业 | -4.05% | 31.07 | | 000603 | 盛达资源 | -4.06% | 27.44 | | 002155 | 湖南黄金 | -3.81% | 22.73 | | 002237 | 恒邦股份 | -3.33% | 15.38 | 10月10日盘初， 黄金、有色金属板块多数下挫。黄金概念方面， 晓程科技跌超7%， ...

降息周期与供给扰动续写金铜长牛 20251009 摘要 美联储降息预期升温，虽降息幅度不及预期，但仍利好黄金。美国政府 停摆及经济数据延迟发布，或加速美联储降息步伐，Dodge 2.0 计划可 能引发裁员，进一步增加降息必要性，多重因素推动金价上涨。 全球紧张局势、央行购金及美元地位衰退等长期因素支撑金价。中国寻 求以人民币结算澳洲铁矿石，挑战美元地位，对黄金形成支撑。关注山 东黄金、赤峰黄金等低估值、业绩预期良好的黄金板块公司。 铜价稳定在 1 万美元以上，逼近历史高位。降息背景下，铜的金融属性 提供支撑。过去几年铜行业资本开支不足，未来几年增量有限，叠加矿 山事故频发及泰克公司产量指引下修，扭转市场预期。 传统基建和新能源领域对铜需求强劲，铜板块具备长逻辑、大故事和快 冲击特性。关注紫金矿业等一线龙头及江西铜业股份等二梯队低估值公 司，供给增量有限，高铜价或维持一段时间。 钴市场受刚果（金）中断供应及配额制度影响，价格上涨。关注印尼供 应为主、不受刚果（金）影响的企业，如立新能源和华友钴业，以及取 得合理配额后具备较大业绩弹性的洛阳钼业。 Q&A 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的整数关口，背后的主要驱 ...

金属牛市进行时 - 稀土金银铜铝锡钴 20251008 您如何看待稀土市场的未来走势？ 摘要 伦铜、伦锡、伦铝普涨由共振效应引发，预计持续性强。美国稀土公司 股价大涨，或因政府入股及订单支持。国内稀土市场预计 10 月普涨， 供给端民企停产影响显著，新能源车和风电需求强劲，看好四季度及明 年上半年需求。 印尼严打非法矿山或影响全球 5%锡精矿供应。尽管短期锡价高开低走， 但逢低布局思路不变，预计明年高点可达 35 万元/吨。建议关注锡业股 份、华锡有色等标的，若锡价达 35 万元/吨，协鑫股份市值或达 600 亿 元，华锡有色可达三四百亿元。 刚果金实行配额后，钴价暴涨，远期价格已超 34 万甚至接近 35 万。市 场预期明年钴价高点 40 万元左右，均价 35 万以上。若配额维持 9-10 万吨，将导致供需扭转，长期缺口显现。建议关注华友钴业、洛阳钼业、 腾远钴业及力勤资源。 假期期间，黄金和白银分别上涨 3.6%和 2.5%，黄金价格达到历史性的 4,000 美元每盎司。铜价上涨超过 3%，逼近 2024 年 LME 铜价高点 11,100 美元。 Q&A 请问您对四季度有色金属板块的整体展望是什么？ 四 ...

当前时点，如何看待金属煤炭行业？20251008 摘要 ETF 资金流向与黄金价格高度相关，今年海外资金驱动显著，尤其在 Comex 和北美 SPDR ETF 市场，与过去两年中国主导购金的趋势不同。 美国降息预期下修了投资者对美股及美国实体投资回报率的预期，促使 周期性避险资金流入黄金市场，经济数据衰竭加速及政府停摆进一步推 升金价。 短期内，降息初期围绕远端降息概率及经济数据松动背景下，金价上行 趋势将延续，但央行购金结构等因素难以高频跟踪，短端阻力位难以明 确。 长期来看，若历史重演且周期性与趋势性力量共振，黄金可能经历一个 十年左右的中周期，目前涨势已持续七年，预计至少还有三年左右的短 周期时长。 黄金股估值普遍偏低，突破 4,000 美元后，市场信心增强，预计 A 股公 司估值将回到 25-30 倍历史中位数水平，建议关注四季度 A 港股黄金板 块。 Q&A 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素是什么？ 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素包括以下几个方面。首先，假期 期间，海外周期性主导的 ETF 资金大规模加仓是推动黄金价格上升的重要原因。 高频数据表明，ETF 资金持仓 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： l投资要点 贵金属：金银主升浪延续，坚定持有。贵金属本周继续强势，comex黄金上涨1.89%，comex白银上涨 6.92%。本周美国GDP数据显示其经济依然强势，数据落地后，美国国债利率提升，金银出现短暂调整 后重拾上涨动能，同时软着陆交易下白银跑赢，黄金未来可能迎来波动率下降的慢牛行情。且长期来 看，去美元化的进程不会转向，叠加短期降息交易下ETF配置资金的流入，我们依然看好贵金属板块的 表现，建议继续超配贵金属。 铜：供给扰动有望提升价格中枢。本周印尼自由港发布Grasberg运营状况更新公告。公司将25Q4铜产量 指引下调至"可忽略的水平"，原预估四季度铜产量20.2万吨；还下调26年全年铜产量指引35%，即27万 吨。考虑到自由港库存情况，全球电解铜平衡表的逆转可能在25Q4末期或26Q1出现。同上文，目前市 场在定价美国滞胀或软着陆，铜依然会有不俗的表现，结合供需紧张的预期，铜价有望继续上行突破， 或长期保持在10500美金以上。铜价目前的位置来看，机会或大于风险。就供需来看，国内消费旺季来 临，下游开工率提升有望提振消费情绪，从而带动铜价上行。 铝：继续看好铝价上行。本周 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the supply-demand reversal is expected to lead to an upward shift in copper prices, with a long-term price target above $10,500 per ton [6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold rising by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% in the recent week [5] - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the implementation of export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6752.28, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.09%, while aluminum decreased by 1.01% and zinc by 0.41% [20] - Precious metals experienced significant gains, with COMEX gold up by 1.89% and silver up by 6.92% [20] - Lithium carbonate prices saw a slight increase of 0.14% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 3,021 tons, aluminum by 4,929 tons, and zinc by 8 tons [36][38] - Nickel inventory increased by 990 tons [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

2025 年 09 月 28 日 有色金属 铜价或开启牛市，G7 欧盟讨论设稀土 底价 本周自由港 Grasberg 铜矿大幅下修产量指引，全球供需平衡被打破， 铜价或开启牛市上半场。贵金属价格继续冲高，白银持续突破，年内 或冲历史高点。特朗普对俄态度发生变化，有意对俄征收高额关税， 地缘风险再起。此外，七国集团（G7）和欧盟正在讨论对稀土价格设 定底价，短期利好稀土价格。建议重点关注铜金银稀土铝锡钴钽等品 种。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 3756.8、46.1 美元/盎司,环比分别 +2.2%、+8.2%。美国 8 月核心 PCE 物价指数环比+0.2%，符合预期。 美国国会参议院否决了众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，增加了部分 联邦政府机构因资金耗尽的"停摆"风险。法国等多国宣布承认巴勒 斯坦国，以色列和美国未出席相关国际会议，以色列政策争议加大， 推升地缘溢价后续美联储货币政策独立性减弱，政策不确定性等利多 因素有望持续，看好金价续创新高。白银被提议列入美国 USGS 关键 矿产清单，看好白银价格弹性。。 建议关注：山东黄金、山金国际、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金等。 工业金属 铜：本 ...

Group 1 - As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody amount in China reached 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month-on-month, although this was a decrease of 0.24 trillion yuan compared to the end of July [5] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo announced an extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, transitioning to a quota system thereafter, with the country accounting for 76.3% of global cobalt production in 2024 [5] - USAC received a five-year exclusive contract from the US Department of Defense worth up to $245 million for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic value of antimony [5] Group 2 - In the first eight months of 2025, the export growth rates for electric tools, hand tools, and lawn mowers were 1%, -5%, and 45% respectively, while forklifts, machine tools, and industrial sewing machines saw growth rates of 1%, 14%, and 16% respectively [7] - The export growth rates for major engineering machinery categories, including excavators, tractors, and mining machinery, were 14%, 25%, 30%, and 23% respectively [7] Group 3 - The global market size for brain-computer interfaces is expected to reach $7.63 billion by 2029, driven by policy support and demand from conditions like stroke and ALS [8] - The expected dividend yield for Gree Electric exceeded 7% in 2025, with a historical trend indicating a bottoming characteristic, supported by a projected profit of 33 billion yuan and a 52% cash dividend rate [8]

2025 年 9 月 24 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 | | 股指期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | IF2510 | 4510.20 | 0.28 | | IF2511 | 4495.40 | 0.30 | | IF2512 | 4483.80 | 0.25 | | IF2603 | 4457.60 | 0.20 | 行业研究 【有色】刚果（金）钴出口配额落地，钴价有望进入上行周期——钴行业动态点评(增 持) 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管局 2025 年 9 月 20 日宣布将钴出口禁令延长至 10 月 15 日，10 月 16 日起改为钴出口配额制度。2024 年刚果（金）钴产量占全球产量的 76.3%。投资建议：刚果（金）出口受限，钴供给明显收缩，利好钴价上行。推荐华 友钴业、洛阳钼业，关注力勤资源。 风险提示：刚果（金）钴政策变化风险；刚果 （金）以外地区产量超预期风险；钴需求下跌风险。 公司研究 【建筑】盈利进一步减亏，现金流及收现比同比改善——中铁装配（300374.SZ）跟 踪点评报告(增持) 25H1，中铁装配收入实现稳定增长，归母净 ...