帮主用20年经验拆解：银行股逆势涨，核心还是低估值+高股息，在震荡市里成了资金的"避风港"；锂板块走强，离不开碳酸锂价格回升的基本面支撑；而 中船系、旅游板块调整，要么是前期涨多了获利回吐，要么是缺乏持续的政策或业绩催化。 最关键的信号是缩量！缩量调整意味着市场抛压不算重，但买盘也不够积极，属于"多空僵持"的状态。这种行情下，盲目追涨杀跌绝对是大忌，你是不是也 想趁着回调抄底？ 明日策略直接划重点：优先守住有基本面支撑的主线，比如低估值的银行、供需改善的锂板块；远离前期涨幅过高、没业绩支撑的题材股，尤其是旅游、中 船系这类调整中的板块，别着急抄底；另外，关注明日能否补量，要是持续缩量，就控制好仓位，别重仓押注单一板块。 今天你是盈利还是亏损？最看好明天哪个板块反弹？评论区聊聊，点赞关注，帮主明天开盘实时跟踪盘面动向！ 老铁们，今天A股这行情太磨人了！沪指高开低走跌0.40%，创业板直接跌1.12%，更扎心的是超3850只个股下跌，是不是很多人手里的票又在默默吃面？ 先盘盘今天的市场真相：沪深京三市成交额17226亿元，还比昨天缩量200亿，量能萎缩说明啥？资金都在观望不敢动啊！但分化也太明显了——一边是银 行 ...

Group 1 - A-shares showed mixed performance in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding by 0.38% before noon, driven by gains in the banking and lithium sectors, while most technology and tourism sectors adjusted [1] - By midday, the CSI A500 Index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index fell by 0.5%, and the STAR Market 50 Index declined by 0.6%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.1% [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext Index, which is tracked by the ChiNext ETF, consists of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant proportion in strategic emerging industries, particularly in power equipment, communications, and electronics, which together account for nearly 60% [4] - The STAR Market 50 Index, tracked by the STAR Market 50 ETF, includes 50 stocks from the STAR Market with high market capitalization and liquidity, prominently featuring technology leaders, with semiconductors making up over 65% and combined with medical devices and software development, accounting for nearly 80% [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing volatility, with a recommendation to hold positions and wait for the next upward wave. Gold is suggested to be bought around $3950 per ounce, with expectations of a 2-3 month consolidation period due to previous rapid price increases [4] - Copper prices are expected to stabilize due to supply disruptions, with a recommendation to buy on dips. The anticipated supply-demand tightness in 2026 is highlighted, driven by production cuts from major suppliers [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by rigid supply despite the end of the peak season, with downstream processing rates slightly increasing. However, a structural divergence in demand is expected [5] - Tin prices are projected to remain high due to ongoing supply tightness, with a decline in domestic refined tin production noted. The demand from AI and semiconductor sectors is expected to drive growth [6] - The lithium market is experiencing strong demand driven by the energy storage sector, with optimistic projections for future growth in storage capacity [6][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 0.8%, ranking 18th among sectors [15] Section 2: Prices - LME copper increased by 1.41%, aluminum decreased by 0.12%, zinc decreased by 1.70%, lead increased by 1.03%, and tin increased by 2.90% this week. Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [21] Section 3: Inventory - Global visible inventories showed an increase in copper by 18,188 tons, aluminum by 4,122 tons, zinc by 6,560 tons, lead by 27,899 tons, tin by 159 tons, and nickel by 1,379 tons [33][35] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Dazhong Mining, Guocheng Mining, Zhongkuang Resources, and others for potential investment opportunities [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Lithium - The short - term supply - demand is expected to increase, but there is no substantial switch. The marginal drive of new demand is limited after entering the off - season. The social inventory is still being depleted, but the digestion speed of warehouse receipts has slowed down recently. Attention should be paid to the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. The short - term sentiment may be adjusted, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly. Follow - up attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large manufacturers before the end of the year and the marginal changes in downstream demand after entering the off - season [1]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply of nickel remains loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The short - term driving force is weak. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There are still pressures on the supply side in terms of steel mill production scheduling and social inventory, and demand improvement is insufficient. The short - term market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4]. Tin - Recently, macro - fluctuations have been large. Considering the strong fundamentals, it is advisable to choose the opportunity to go long at low levels after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the macro - end and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [7]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable with a slight increase, but the futures price fluctuates downward. There is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is still expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of organic silicon production cuts [8]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. The market is still in a situation of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price [9]. Zinc - The supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. The demand side has no outstanding performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export may boost the domestic zinc price. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and the upward or downward breakthrough requires specific conditions [12]. Copper - In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom center of copper prices to gradually move up. Follow - up attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract focusing on the support around 86,500 yuan/ton [14]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price may face downward pressure, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum referring to the operating range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to overseas monetary policy trends and marginal changes in the domestic fundamentals. The alumina price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - In the short - term, the price of ADC12 will maintain a relatively strong operation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply, changes in downstream procurement rhythm, and the inventory depletion process [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues Price and Basis - **Lithium**: The average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide all increased slightly. The prices of some lithium raw materials remained unchanged [1]. - **Nickel**: The prices of various nickel products generally decreased, and the cost of some electrolytic nickel production processes changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils decreased slightly, and the prices of some raw materials remained stable or decreased slightly [4]. - **Tin**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of industrial silicon were stable, and the futures price decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fluctuated greatly [9]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [12]. - **Copper**: The prices of various copper products decreased slightly, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and alumina in some regions decreased, and the import profit and loss and other indicators changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was stable, and the scrap - refined price difference increased [18]. Monthly and Inter - monthly Spreads - **Lithium**: The inter - monthly spreads of lithium contracts changed, showing different trends [1]. - **Nickel**: The inter - monthly spreads of nickel contracts changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inter - monthly spreads of stainless steel contracts changed [4]. - **Tin**: The inter - monthly spreads of tin contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The inter - monthly spreads of polysilicon contracts changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The inter - monthly spreads of zinc contracts changed [12]. - **Copper**: The inter - monthly spreads of copper contracts changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The inter - monthly spreads of aluminum contracts changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The inter - monthly spreads of casting aluminum alloy contracts changed [18]. Fundamental Data - **Lithium**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, the import decreased in September, and the inventory decreased in October [1]. - **Nickel**: The production of refined nickel in China increased, the import volume increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, the import increased, the export decreased, and the inventory changed [4]. - **Tin**: The production of SMM refined tin in October increased, the import of tin ore in September decreased, and the inventory in various regions changed [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon in some regions changed, the production of some downstream products changed, and the inventory decreased [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The production and inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the import and export volumes also changed [9]. - **Zinc**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased in September, the export increased significantly, and the inventory in various regions changed [12]. - **Copper**: The production of electrolytic copper decreased in October, the import increased in September, and the inventory in various regions changed [14]. - **Aluminum**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [16]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots changed in October, the import and export volumes changed, and the inventory in various regions changed [18].

Group 1: Aluminum Market - LME aluminum price increased by 0.52% to $2877.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum rose by 0.99% to 21,800 yuan per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory recorded at 621,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to earlier in the week [3] - National alumina production capacity stands at 110.32 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 89.56 million tons per year; weekly operating rate decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 81.18% [3] Group 2: Copper Market - LME copper price rose by 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton, and Shanghai copper increased by 1.12% to 86,900 yuan per ton [2] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.21 per ton; national inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons [2] - Domestic waste anode plate production remains high with an operating rate of 73.62%, expected to rise by 2.61 percentage points next week [2] Group 3: Gold Market - COMEX gold price increased by 4.16% to $4,174.50 per ounce; SPDR gold holdings rose by 6.87 tons to 1,048.93 tons [4] - Market influenced by U.S. political dysfunction and geopolitical risks, leading to a strong oscillation pattern [4] Group 4: Rare Earth and Antimony - Praseodymium and neodymium prices decreased by 1.40%; rare earth prices expected to rise due to increased demand following the suspension of control measures [5] - Antimony price increased by 15.5% due to resource scarcity and reduced global supply [5] Group 5: Tin and Lithium - Tin price increased by 3.11% as Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining [6] - Lithium carbonate price rose by 3.14% to 83,200 yuan per ton, with total production at 21,500 tons [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the copper, aluminum, and precious metals sectors, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth [2][3][4][5]. Core Insights - Copper prices have shown a weekly increase of 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton on the LME, with domestic prices rising by 1.12% to 86,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a recovery in demand as the market approaches the traditional peak season [2][14]. - Aluminum prices also increased, with LME aluminum up 0.52% to $2,877.00 per ton, supported by low inventory levels and stable demand from downstream processing industries [3][15]. - Gold prices surged by 4.16% to $4,174.5 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties in the U.S., indicating strong investor interest in safe-haven assets [4][16]. - The rare earth sector is experiencing upward momentum due to increased demand and the suspension of export control measures, leading to a bullish outlook for companies involved in rare earth production [5][32]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 1.53% to $10,859.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 86,900 yuan per ton [2][14]. - The processing fee index for imported copper concentrate dropped to -$42.21 per ton, indicating supply chain pressures [2][14]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 0.52 million tons to 20.11 million tons, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [2][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 0.52% to $2,877.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 21,800 yuan per ton [3][15]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3][15]. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly to 62%, suggesting stable demand [3][15]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold price increased by 4.16% to $4,174.5 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 6.87 tons to 1,048.93 tons [4][16]. - The market is influenced by U.S. political instability and geopolitical tensions, leading to a strong demand for gold [4][16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 1.40%, but overall demand is expected to rise due to the suspension of export controls [5][32]. - The rare earth sector is projected to benefit from increased strategic importance and price appreciation [5][32]. Other Metals - Antimony prices increased by 15.5%, driven by a suspension of export controls and a tightening supply situation [5][34]. - Tin prices rose by 3.11%, supported by reduced illegal mining activities in Indonesia [5][35]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.14% to 83,200 yuan per ton, reflecting strong demand in the energy storage sector [5][61].

证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 16 日 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 铜 ： 宏 观 交 织 催 化 ， 铜 价 维 持 震 荡 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +0.99%/+1.12%/+1.86%。宏观方面，本周美国政府结束历史最长停摆，驱动铜价上扬， 美联储 12 月降息预期回落，驱动铜价回落，预计短期铜价维持震荡。库存方面，国内库 存去化，伦铜/纽铜/沪铜库存分别为 13.6 万吨/38.1 万短吨/10.9 万吨，环比变化 -0.13%/+3.23%/-4.89%； ...

Economic News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through innovation and reform, aiming for high-quality growth and integration into global supply chains [2] - The People's Bank of China reported a 13.7% year-on-year increase in loans for Shanghai's financial sector, significantly outpacing overall loan growth, indicating a strong focus on technology and innovation financing [2] - The National Energy Administration released guidelines to enhance the integration of renewable energy by 2030, promoting collaboration between renewable and coal power [2] - The State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves reported that over 100 million tons of autumn grain have been purchased, indicating a robust market for grain procurement [2] Company Insights - Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary in Chile faced a court ruling that dismissed its lawsuit, impacting its operational outlook [6] - North Medical's chairman was arrested on criminal charges, raising concerns about corporate governance and stability [7] - Yiling Pharmaceutical received approval for the market launch of a chemical raw material, indicating growth potential in its product line [7] - Xingmin Zhitong signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Automotive Group, suggesting potential synergies and market expansion [7] - Transsion Holdings plans to issue H shares and list in Hong Kong, indicating a strategy for capital raising and market presence [7] Industry Analysis - The banking sector is expected to benefit from recent reforms in public fund performance benchmarks, which aim to promote balanced asset allocation and could lead to increased investment in the banking sector [8][9] - The new benchmark selection norms will enhance the stability of fund investment styles, potentially reducing market volatility and improving capital market stability [11][12] - The banking sector is currently underweighted in active equity funds, presenting a potential opportunity for reallocation as reforms take effect [13] Company Performance - Laiyifen, a leader in the Chinese snack food industry, is focusing on quality and innovation while expanding its franchise model, which has seen a significant increase in revenue contribution from franchise operations [14][15] - The company is optimizing its cost structure, achieving a 25% reduction in sales expenses, which is expected to enhance profitability [14] - Laiyifen is exploring new retail formats, including community stores and warehouse membership stores, to diversify its market presence and improve operational efficiency [15][16] Financial Forecast - Dayun Technology reported a 44% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong order growth and market demand [17][18] - The company is expanding its product offerings in X-ray detection technology, which is gaining traction in new applications, particularly in the semiconductor industry [18][19] - The planned acquisition of SSTI is expected to enhance Dayun Technology's capabilities in semiconductor testing, supporting its growth strategy [19][20]

Market Overview - Major indices in China opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.36%, and ChiNext Index up 0.58% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached 4023.88 points, with a trading volume of 506 million and a total transaction value of 76.12 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index was at 13476.25 points, with 7247 transactions and a total transaction value of 102.10 billion [2] - The NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index rose by 2.25%, with notable gains in companies like Xpeng Motors (up over 16%) and Baidu (up over 5%) [3] Industry Insights - CITIC Construction Investment forecasts a bullish trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly in new productivity sectors [4] - China Galaxy Securities anticipates further growth in the copper and aluminum industries in Q4, supported by improved macro expectations and potential increases in market liquidity due to Federal Reserve policies [5] - The lithium industry is expected to see profit improvements in Q4, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector and the upcoming end of tax exemptions for electric vehicles in China [5] Automotive Sector - CITIC Construction Investment highlights the automotive industry's cyclical growth and the importance of overseas expansion, with a focus on smart driving and robotics as key growth areas [6] - The automotive sector is expected to experience a shift in investment focus towards technology-driven applications, particularly in commercial vehicles and AI-related innovations [6] AI Industry - Huaxi Securities notes that the AI industry is entering a phase of rapid iteration and competition, with applications expected to delve into more specialized and in-depth scenarios, including education and healthcare [7]

银河证券表示，中美经贸和谈元首会晤达成重要共识，市场宏观预期与风险偏好有望改善，美联储在四 季度持续的降息与可能的停止缩表并开始扩表有望提升市场流动性，这均将有利于铜铝等工业金属大宗 商品价格上涨。而海外铜铝龙头企业事故频发对全球供应的扰动也将提升铜铝的价格弹性。2025Q4铜 铝行业业绩增速有望进一步提升。 在中美关税谈判达成日内瓦协议后，市场宏观预期改善、风险偏好提升，叠加美国就业市场出现恶化迹 象下市场对美联储在三季度重新开启降息的预期升温，以及国内"反内卷"的政策指引，共同推动有色金 属大宗商品价格稳步上行，使有色金属企业在三季度的盈利能力与业绩继续环比提升。且由于去年三季 度有色金属价格下跌形成的2024Q3有色金属行业业绩低基数的影响，使2025Q3A股有色金属行业业绩 同比增速加速上行。A股有色金属行业2025年前三季度营业收入同比增长10.02%，业绩同比增长 46.64%；A股有色金属行业2025Q3单季度营业收入同比增长16.57%，业绩同比增长52.08%。 智通财经APP获悉，银河证券发布研究报告称，国内外储能需求旺盛，以及进入2026年国内新能源汽车 购置税减免政策退坡或将引发年底抢 ...