Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The copper price rebounded to the 95,000 - 96,000 range this week, and the medium - term view is bullish. The decline in the short - term is due to inventory pressure and potential interest rate hikes and liquidity pressures caused by geopolitical conflicts [1] - The price of aluminum is affected by the situation in Iran and oil prices. After the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain, the supply transaction may become the main idea in the short term, and the fundamentals are improving [1] - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term, and there is a risk of production cuts overseas. The domestic fundamentals are average [2] - The price of nickel is expected to fluctuate within a range under the influence of weak fundamentals and supply - side policy intervention [3][4] - The price of stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price and fluctuate within a range [7] - The price of lead is expected to maintain a weak - side shock influenced by overseas inventory and recycled lead profit [8][9] - The price of tin is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity. If liquidity is loose, the upside potential is strong; if liquidity tightens, the price may decline [12] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and bottom - oscillate seasonally in the long term [13][15] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be macro - driven in the short term, and the probability of spot shortage is high in the second quarter [17] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, the copper price rebounded to 95,000 - 96,000. The supply of scrap copper is expected to remain tight, and the refined copper inventory may further decline. The consumption of refined copper is strong after the Spring Festival. Although Goldman Sachs has lowered the consumption growth rate of domestic electrolytic copper in 2026, the progress of aluminum replacing copper is debatable. The medium - term view on copper is bullish [1] Aluminum - Affected by the situation in Iran and oil prices, the price volatility has slightly converged. After the attacks on aluminum plants in the UAE and Bahrain, the global electrolytic aluminum production growth rate has declined. The overseas premium has increased, the visible inventory has decreased, the domestic aluminum ingot inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the processing fee of aluminum rods has rebounded. The export processing of aluminum plants is expected to be more prosperous [1] Zinc - The benchmark price for the long - term contract negotiation is 85 US dollars. The supply of zinc ore is expected to be tight in the medium term. The domestic and imported TC are at a low level. The resumption of production of northern mines in spring is expected to drive a rebound. The smelting profit is acceptable. The downstream has resumed production with some hesitation, and the overall inventory has accumulated to over 250,000 tons. There is a risk of production cuts overseas [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased in February. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the premiums of Jinchuan and Russian nickel are weak. The domestic inventory is increasing, and the LME inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term fundamentals are weak. Due to the policy of Indonesia to strengthen nickel price control, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight throughout the year. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mill's production schedule has decreased slightly. The downstream is gradually recovering. The ore price has pushed up the prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome. The inventory has decreased slightly this week, and the warehouse receipts have slightly decreased. The fundamentals are weak. Affected by the policy of Indonesia to strengthen nickel price control, it is expected to follow the nickel price and fluctuate within a range [7] Lead - The profit of primary lead is sufficient, and the start - up rate of concentrate mines in spring is expected to increase, driving the TC to rebound. The resumption of production of recycled lead is expected to be delayed in March. The battery start - up rate has recovered this week, and the inventory of dealers' battery products has decreased. The production schedule in March is improving. The spot social inventory has decreased by nearly 20,000 tons this week. The price of lead is expected to maintain a weak - side shock [8][9] Tin - The tin price fluctuated this week, suppressed by liquidity pressure. The supply in Wabang is expected to recover rapidly in the second quarter, and the domestic processing fee has a slight upward trend. Indonesia's quota in 2026 is over 60,000 tons, with a small inventory accumulation. There are supply - side risks. The demand is relatively strong, and the inventory is mainly in the exchange. The price is greatly affected by global macro - liquidity [12] Industrial Silicon - Some factories in the north have maintenance plans, and the overall start - up rate has not changed significantly. In the southwest, small and medium - sized factories are mostly shut down at the end of the dry season, and most factories are still waiting to see about starting up in the wet season. The supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the price is expected to oscillate at the seasonal marginal cost bottom [13][15] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, the futures market has been strong due to the failure of the expected resumption of exports from Zimbabwe and concerns about Australian ore supply. The raw material supply is tight, and the lithium salt processing fee is decreasing. Lithium salt enterprises are holding prices and waiting to see, and the downstream is purchasing at a low level. The spot contradiction is weakening in the short term, and the price is macro - driven. In the second quarter, the probability of spot shortage is high, but the upside space needs further factors to open up [17]

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industries discussed. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price declines across various metals, including copper, aluminum, and gold, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions. The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the near term, with potential recovery in specific sectors anticipated due to underlying demand dynamics [12][15][62]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price decreased by 7.07% to $11,834.5 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 5.55% to ¥94,700 per ton. The processing fee for imported copper concentrate dropped to -$67.32 per ton. National copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week-on-week, but increased by 17.67% year-on-year. The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises fell to 58.31%, with expectations of further decline to 54.65% next week. Cable enterprises saw a slight increase in orders, but overall operating rates only rose by 3.93% to 70.52% due to cautious purchasing sentiment [13][14]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price fell by 7.18% to $3,192.0 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.77% to ¥24,000 per ton. Domestic aluminum rod inventory decreased to 369,500 tons. The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased by 1% to 62.9%, indicating a slight recovery in demand. The operating rate for aluminum foil enterprises rose to 73.6%, supported by strong orders for battery and packaging foils [14]. Gold - COMEX gold price dropped by 10.36% to $4,492.0 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings decreasing by 13.72 tons to 1,056.99 tons. Geopolitical risks, particularly related to the ongoing conflict involving Israel and Iran, have contributed to market volatility. The report notes that the situation remains fluid, with potential implications for energy supply and prices [15]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 12.44% to ¥702,800 per ton. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in prices due to improved demand and easing export restrictions. Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and Baotou Steel Rare Earth [39][40]. Tungsten - Tungsten prices fell by 3.00%, attributed to profit-taking by traders rather than a fundamental downturn. The report suggests that tungsten remains a priority due to increased strategic stockpiling overseas [42]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.2% to ¥154,300 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 2.8% to ¥153,500 per ton. Lithium production increased to 24,200 tons, with a slight rise in inventory levels. The market is characterized by cautious purchasing behavior, with upstream suppliers reluctant to sell at lower prices [63]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 0.2% to ¥431,000 per ton, with stable demand expected to support prices in the medium term. The report highlights a steady upward trend in cobalt's market dynamics [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Market pessimism eases, and the dollar index pulls back. The copper price rebounds after a decline. The short - term copper price may maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as the tense situation at the mine end and the improvement of domestic consumption [1][2]. - Aluminum: The overseas supply threat remains large, and the domestic downstream start - up rate continues to rise. The short - term aluminum price is expected to remain relatively strong [3][4]. - Lead: Although the short - term lead price is supported, there is still a possibility of further decline, and the follow - up situation of the resumption of production of recycling smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders need to be observed [6][7]. - Zinc: The zinc industry maintains a weak status, and the zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough [9][10]. - Tin: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock at a high level [11][12]. - Nickel: The supply and demand of nickel have improved, but due to short - term geopolitical risks and high inventory levels, the price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate: The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is resilient, and the supply has many uncertainties. The price callback has strong support, and attention should be paid to relevant factors in the future [18][19]. - Alumina: The short - term futures price may maintain a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to potential driving factors [21][22]. - Stainless steel: Under the combined effect of supply pressure, moderate demand release, and cost support, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [24][25]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cost - end price support is strong, and the short - term price is expected to remain high [27][28]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Quotes**: The LME 3M copper contract rose 1.44% to $12,918/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 311,600 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by more than 20,000 tons [1]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term copper price may maintain a volatile trend. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,600 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,000/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: The LME 3M aluminum contract fell 1.37% to $3,392/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,970 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 10,000 tons to 679,000 tons, and the aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 35,000 tons [3]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term aluminum price is expected to remain relatively strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 25,300 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,360 - 3,450/ton [4]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai lead index fell 1.47% to 16,342 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $39.5 to $1,893.5/ton. The domestic lead social inventory increased by 2,400 tons to 80,100 tons [6]. - **Strategy Views**: Although the short - term lead price is supported, there is still a possibility of further decline, and the follow - up situation of the resumption of production of recycling smelters and the sustainability of battery enterprise orders need to be observed [7]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.98% to 23,934 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc fell $17.5 to $3,271.5/ton. The domestic zinc social inventory increased by 5,100 tons to 236,200 tons [9]. - **Strategy Views**: The zinc industry maintains a weak status, and the zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough [10]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: On March 16, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 373,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%. SHFE inventory decreased by 278 tons to 11,995 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8,715 tons [11]. - **Strategy Views**: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the tin price is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock at a high level. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $45,000 - 53,000/ton [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On March 16, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 136,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron increased [14]. - **Strategy Views**: The supply and demand of nickel have improved, but due to short - term geopolitical risks and high inventory levels, the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index fell 1.06%, and the LC2605 contract rose 4.96% [18]. - **Strategy Views**: The terminal demand for lithium carbonate is resilient, and the supply has many uncertainties. The price callback has strong support. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 150,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: On March 16, the alumina index rose 0.46% to 2,976 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 5 yuan/ton to 2,645 yuan/ton, and the futures inventory increased by 26,400 tons to 400,300 tons [21]. - **Strategy Views**: The short - term futures price may maintain a wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to potential driving factors. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 14,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The social inventory decreased by 0.79% to 1,086,100 tons [24]. - **Strategy Views**: Under the combined effect of supply pressure, moderate demand release, and cost support, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,900 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded, and the AD2604 contract rose 0.74% to 23,830 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 700 tons to 36,000 tons [27]. - **Strategy Views**: The cost - end price support is strong, and the short - term price is expected to remain high [28].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report maintains a bullish view on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium term, the stabilization time of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1]. - For aluminum, after the price increase, there is an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. It is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. If the Iran situation deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1]. - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity due to limited long - term capital expenditure and about 100,000 tons of supply disturbances from Iranian zinc mines. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. - Nickel's short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak overall demand, continuous domestic delivery, and stable LME inventory. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [6]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, with a slight decline in steel mill production, downstream entering the off - season, a slight decline in nickel iron prices, a small increase in chrome iron prices, seasonal inventory accumulation, and a small increase in warehouse receipts. The short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the Indonesian quota news [10]. - For lead, the supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and there is an expectation of looser spot supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate in the coming week [13]. - Tin prices fluctuated downward this week. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, if there is a macro turning point in the second half of 2026, the price may fluctuate downward significantly [15]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [19]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is in a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links is further reduced to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [21]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices continued to fluctuate significantly. The US's ability to siphon inventory is gradually disappearing, but global consumption is still good. There is strong support from rigid demand at the current price. The industry - end support remains. The mid - term view is bullish on copper prices, and in the short - to - medium term, attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1]. Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped significantly with the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. The spot premium strengthened, and demand was weak. After the price increase, there was an unexpected increase in supply and weak terminal demand. If the Iran situation deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1]. Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, which is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. In November, Huoshaoyun zinc ingots were officially put into production, and other smelters had limited production increases. In February, production is expected to decrease by 50,000 - 60,000 tons month - on - month. On the demand side, domestic demand weakened seasonally, and overseas demand in Europe was average. The market is optimistic about zinc's allocation elasticity, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it was overall weak. On the inventory side, domestic delivery continued, and LME inventory remained stable. The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [6]. Stainless Steel - On the supply side, steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, downstream entered the off - season. In terms of cost, nickel iron prices declined slightly, and chrome iron prices increased slightly. In terms of inventory, there was seasonal inventory accumulation and a small increase in warehouse receipts. The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term sentiment of the non - ferrous sector is dominant due to the Indonesian quota news [10]. Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production was driven by profits, and production decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival holiday. Concentrates were in short supply, and TC continued to weaken. Secondary lead was affected by environmental protection and losses and some enterprises had early holidays and maintenance. On the demand side, the battery operating rate declined, and battery production inventory accumulated monthly. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and there was an expectation of looser spot supply. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices in the short term [13]. Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward. On the supply side, there are differences in the expectation of Wa State's production resumption in the first quarter. Indonesia determined the quota for 2026 to be 60,000 tons. On the demand side, there are differences in the willingness to replenish inventory, and overseas consumption is generally flat. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and overseas LME inventory increased fluctuantly. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see; in the long term, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of 2026 [15]. Industrial Silicon - Southwest production enterprises are in a shutdown state, and a large factory in Xinjiang has reduced production. The monthly supply continues to shrink. In February, supply and demand are expected to decrease simultaneously, and the overall trend is to reduce inventory. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle, anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Recently, macro sentiment and regulatory tightening have had a large impact on prices. The price and positions of lithium carbonate continued to decline last week. On the raw material side, lithium ore prices continued to decline, and mine sales were limited. On the lithium salt side, most upstream enterprises were reluctant to sell, and downstream cathode enterprises maintained low - level procurement. The short - term fundamentals are strong, and it is in a de - stocking trend in the off - season. If the inventory in the intermediate links is further reduced to a low level, there is a large space for calendar spread arbitrage [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The post - holiday demand for aluminum has increased, and aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [2] - Geopolitical factors such as the repeated Iran nuclear negotiations, the potential war risk, and Trump's new tariffs have led to a rise in market panic, causing gold and silver to soar and driving up non - ferrous metals, including aluminum [3] - In the short term, after a sharp decline in aluminum prices, the sentiment in the spot market has warmed up, and the price may continue to oscillate. In the medium term, if copper prices continue to fall, it may drag down aluminum prices [4] Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Today, LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices have all risen. The SHFE aluminum closed at 23,550, and the spot price was 23,390, with a spot discount of - 160 points compared to the futures. This week, SHFE aluminum first rose and then fell, and the spot discount narrowed to - 160 yuan. The spot trading improved slightly today [3] - This week, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased significantly, the alumina inventory increased slightly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory increased significantly. Before the holiday, the spot demand was poor. The LME inventory decreased slightly, and the LME spot discount was - 28 US dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand [3] - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices increased to 7.66, with the internal and external markets showing generally consistent trends [3] Technical Analysis - Today, the price of US crude oil soared, and LME aluminum rose, trading around 3,116 US dollars. SHFE aluminum also rose, closing at 23,550, with a technical form close to neutral. The trading volume of SHFE aluminum decreased while the open interest increased, and the market sentiment was slightly bullish [4] Data Monitoring | Date | LME Aluminum - Spot - Futures Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | February 10 | 6.9134 | - 200 | - 34 | 7.58 | | February 11 | 6.9088 | - 190 | - 33 | 7.62 | | February 12 | 6.8989 | - 160 | - 32 | 7.57 | | February 13 | 6.9007 | - 120 | - 35 | 7.51 | | February 24 | 6.8912 | - 160 | - 28 | 7.66 | [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Tungsten Industry - As of February 13, tungsten concentrate prices reached 697,000 CNY per standard ton, with a weekly increase of 3.3% and a rise of 237,000 CNY (51%) compared to the end of 2025 [1] - The tungsten price has shown a strong upward trend since 2026, supported by long-term quotes from major tungsten companies, indicating a pattern of initial increase followed by stabilization [1] - International tungsten prices are rising due to supply chain shortages, with China being the source of 80% of global tungsten resources. Export controls and crackdowns on illegal mining in China have made overseas raw material procurement more difficult [1] - The current tungsten market faces significant supply-side challenges, with no clear signs of price peaks, providing solid support for the overall market [1] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 135,500 CNY per ton at the beginning of the week to 142,500 CNY per ton by Thursday, a weekly increase of 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices rose from 132,000 CNY per ton to 139,000 CNY per ton, also up by 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - The futures market showed strong performance, with main contract prices rising from a range of 135,000-141,000 CNY per ton to 146,000-152,400 CNY per ton [4] - Market transactions are primarily driven by sporadic pricing settlements and essential purchases, with overall inquiry and transaction volumes declining [5] - A weak supply-demand balance is expected to persist before and after the Spring Festival, with prices likely to stabilize [6] Antimony Industry - Increased market activity was noted before the Spring Festival, with antimony prices continuing to rise due to speculative demand [10] - A fire at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry has led to production halts, affecting over 2,000 tons of antimony ingot output [11] - Overall market demand remains relatively weak, but expectations for improved demand post-holiday are rising due to new export policies and improved trade conditions [11][12] - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover due to limited supply and expected export recovery [12] Tin Industry - The tin market is experiencing a weak overall trend, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and changes in the AI industry narrative [13] - Supply-side constraints are evident as many smelting companies plan maintenance shutdowns, leading to tighter raw material supplies [14] - Demand from downstream solder companies has diminished, with most enterprises halting production and showing low purchasing intent [14] - The market is expected to remain quiet due to the Spring Festival, with tin prices lacking clear direction [15] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices showed a slight rebound, but market changes remain limited due to tight upstream raw material supplies [17] - Trade and downstream inquiries have largely ceased, leading to a quiet market atmosphere [18] - As the Spring Festival approaches, many smelting plants are reducing operations, tightening available market supply [19] - Post-holiday, prices may rise again due to supply constraints and cost support from raw materials [22] Nickel Industry - Indonesia's nickel mining quota reduction policy for 2026 has cut the overall quota from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260-270 million tons, a reduction of nearly 30% [22] - Supply disruptions are exacerbated by seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, leading to a tight supply situation [22] - Downstream companies are optimistic about post-holiday market conditions, with some early stockpiling observed [23] Companies to Watch - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Xianglu Tungsten [2] - Lithium: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, Salt Lake Co. [9] - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous, Beijiete, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining [13] - Tin: Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiyang Silver Tin [16] - Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Tengyuan Cobalt [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The current global consumption of copper is strong, and there is significant rigid demand support. The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, and in the short - to - medium term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1] - **Aluminum**: After the sharp correction of the aluminum market, wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize and then go long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, it may cause aluminum prices to rise [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] - **Nickel**: The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [7] - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, with continuous disturbances from Indonesian quota news [11] - **Lead**: The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] - **Tin**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly observe. In the long - term, if there is a macro turning point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of the year [17] - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases to a low level [23] 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from - 120 to - 110, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 359, the SHFE copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 7,225 tons [1] - **Analysis**: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to the LME. However, global copper consumption is strong, and there is rigid demand support. The industrial end still provides support [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 52,200 tons [1] - **Analysis**: The aluminum market corrected sharply, with weak demand. The supply side had unexpected increases, and it is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. The deterioration of the Iranian situation may push up aluminum prices [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton, the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 16,336 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons [1][2][3] - **Analysis**: On the supply side, domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] Nickel - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SHFE nickel spot price decreased by 5,250 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 702 tons [7] - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was weak, and the short - term fundamentals were weak. The market is affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and overall non - ferrous sentiment [7] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [11] - **Analysis**: Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month, demand entered the off - season, and the fundamentals remained weak. The market is affected by Indonesian quota news and overall non - ferrous sentiment [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the social inventory increased by 8,715 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 250 tons [14][15] - **Analysis**: On the supply side, production decreased seasonally. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and inventory accumulated. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] Tin - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the tin spot import profit increased by 7,169.71, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons [16][17] - **Analysis**: The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side has different views on restocking. In the short term, it is recommended to observe, and in the long - term, there may be a large downward fluctuation [17] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [21] - **Analysis**: Production in the southwest region decreased, and a large factory in Xinjiang cut production. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and in the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,250 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,477 [23] - **Analysis**: In the short term, the fundamentals are strong, with upstream maintenance exceeding expectations and downstream maintenance falling short of expectations. There is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese non-ferrous metals industry, with an expectation of high industry prosperity through 2026 [2]. Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity in 2026 due to tight supply at the mining end and resilient demand, despite potential disruptions from global fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, trade frictions, and geopolitical factors [2][3]. - The report highlights that the prices of copper and aluminum are expected to rise, while lead prices will fluctuate widely, and zinc prices may decline due to the release of new capacities and weak demand [3][4]. - The overall credit quality of the industry is projected to remain stable over the next 12 to 18 months, with profits concentrating in companies with high resource self-sufficiency and strong cost control capabilities [4][5]. Industry Fundamentals - The non-ferrous metals industry is closely linked to the macroeconomic cycle, with a consistent increase in the industry prosperity index since 2025, indicating ongoing positive performance [6][8]. - The report notes that the industrial added value of the non-ferrous metals mining and smelting industries has shown positive year-on-year growth since 2025, reflecting improved operational performance [6][8]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that the overall profitability of companies in the non-ferrous metals sector has improved due to rising prices and production volumes of core products, despite increasing debt levels [4][5]. - The financial health of companies is expected to remain manageable, with financing channels remaining open and debt repayment pressures being controllable [5][6]. Conclusion - The non-ferrous metals industry is anticipated to benefit from supportive policies in fiscal, monetary, and real estate sectors, which will bolster copper consumption and maintain high prices for aluminum and copper [4][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external factors such as U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions, which could impact the industry's performance [9][10].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, as copper fundamentals show limited supply and increasing demand. In the short - to - medium - term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on the stabilization of precious metals. For aluminum, it is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. For zinc, there are anti - arbitrage opportunities, and the market is optimistic about its long - term allocation elasticity. For nickel and stainless steel, short - term sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector dominates. For lead, it is recommended to try shorting at high prices. For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term, and there may be a significant downward fluctuation in the second half of 2026. For industrial silicon, prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, there is a large potential for positive arbitrage between months if the intermediate inventory is further reduced to a low level [1][2][5][9][12][14][18][20] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - This week, copper prices fluctuated significantly. The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to LME or outflow from the US. However, global consumption remains strong, and there is strong demand support at current prices. The industry still provides support, and the report is bullish on copper prices in the medium - term. In the short - to - medium - term, attention should be paid to the support levels of RMB 97,000 and RMB 99,000 for SHFE copper [1] Aluminum - The aluminum price dropped significantly along with the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. The spot premium strengthened, but demand was weak. After the price increase, there was an unexpected increase in supply, and terminal demand was weak. If the situation in Iran deteriorates, it may cause the aluminum price to rise [1] Zinc - On the supply side, domestic and imported TC are accelerating their decline, which is expected to ease after the resumption of northern mines after the Spring Festival. The new production from the Huoshaoyun zinc ingot is limited, and production is expected to decrease by 50,000 - 60,000 tons in February. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the spot has turned to a discount. Overseas LME inventory has increased, and there are anti - arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - On the supply side, the output of pure nickel decreased slightly. On the demand side, the overall demand was weak. On the inventory side, domestic inventory was continuously delivered, and LME inventory remained stable. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and short - term sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector dominates [5] Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the steel mill's production schedule decreased slightly. On the demand side, the downstream is entering the off - season. In terms of cost, nickel iron prices decreased slightly, and ferrochrome prices increased slightly. Inventory increased seasonally this week. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector dominates [9] Lead - On the supply side, primary lead production is driven by profit, but production is seasonally declining. Secondary lead production is affected by environmental protection and losses. On the demand side, battery production and demand are weak. There is an expectation of looser supply, inventory has increased significantly, and it is recommended to try shorting at high prices [10][12] Tin - This week, tin prices fluctuated downward. On the supply side, there are differences in the expectation of Wa State's production resumption in the first quarter, and Indonesia has determined its 2026 quota. On the demand side, there are differences in downstream replenishment willingness, but electronic consumption orders are resilient. Domestic inventory has increased slightly, and overseas LME inventory has increased. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term, and there may be a significant downward fluctuation in the second half of 2026 [13][14] Industrial Silicon - Southwest producers are mostly shut down, and a major factory in Xinjiang has reduced production. Monthly supply is continuously shrinking, and it is expected that both supply and demand will decrease in February, maintaining a de - stocking trend. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate with costs, and in the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [18] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, macro sentiment and regulatory tightening have had a great impact on prices. On the raw material side, lithium ore prices are falling, and on the lithium salt side, most upstream producers are reluctant to sell. Downstream, cathode manufacturers maintain low - level procurement, and there is some speculative demand. In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a de - stocking trend. If the intermediate inventory is further reduced to a low level, there is a large potential for positive arbitrage between months [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]