有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/25 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/10 -125 5778 248911 165939 -1117.87 -150.93 38.0 44.0 -76.10 189100 19475 2026/02/11 -150 5458 248911 178897 -922.94 -193.44 34.0 37.0 -76.01 192100 22450 2026/02/12 -170 5832 248911 187179 -823.81 -312.99 34.0 37.0 -94.71 196650 21650 2026/02/13 -110 5473 272475 196680 -565.83 205.31 33.0 35.0 -106.43 203875 9825 2026/02/24 270 5489 272475 277089 - 302.12 53.0 49.0 - 243175 10 ...

研 究 院 货 金 融 节后需求上升，铝价震荡偏强 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 研 究 院 伊朗核谈判不断反复，仍有战争风险。美国最高法院裁定特朗普关税非法，但特朗普使用新的法律条文重新对 全球主要国家征收15%普遍关税。市场恐慌情绪上升，黄金白银大涨，带动有色金属全线走强。今日伦铝上涨，沪铝 上涨，国内现货铝价上涨。 业 期 货 金 融 数据上看，今日沪铝收盘报23550，现货报23390，现货较期货贴水-160点。本周沪铝冲高回落，现货贴水收窄 至-160元，今日现货成交略有好转。本周国内电解铝社会库存大幅上升，氧化铝库存小幅上升。上期所铝库存大幅上 升，节前现货需求较差。LME库存小幅下降，LME现货贴水-28美元，海外现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率大幅上涨， 铝价沪伦比上升至7.66，内外盘走势大体一致。 弘 技术上看，今日美原油大涨，伦铝上涨，在3116美元附近运行。沪铝今日上涨，收于23550，技术形态接近中性。 沪铝成交下降持仓上升，市场情绪小幅偏强。节前国内电解铝社会库存大幅上升，节后现货成交略有 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Tungsten Industry - As of February 13, tungsten concentrate prices reached 697,000 CNY per standard ton, with a weekly increase of 3.3% and a rise of 237,000 CNY (51%) compared to the end of 2025 [1] - The tungsten price has shown a strong upward trend since 2026, supported by long-term quotes from major tungsten companies, indicating a pattern of initial increase followed by stabilization [1] - International tungsten prices are rising due to supply chain shortages, with China being the source of 80% of global tungsten resources. Export controls and crackdowns on illegal mining in China have made overseas raw material procurement more difficult [1] - The current tungsten market faces significant supply-side challenges, with no clear signs of price peaks, providing solid support for the overall market [1] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased from 135,500 CNY per ton at the beginning of the week to 142,500 CNY per ton by Thursday, a weekly increase of 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices rose from 132,000 CNY per ton to 139,000 CNY per ton, also up by 7,000 CNY per ton [4] - The futures market showed strong performance, with main contract prices rising from a range of 135,000-141,000 CNY per ton to 146,000-152,400 CNY per ton [4] - Market transactions are primarily driven by sporadic pricing settlements and essential purchases, with overall inquiry and transaction volumes declining [5] - A weak supply-demand balance is expected to persist before and after the Spring Festival, with prices likely to stabilize [6] Antimony Industry - Increased market activity was noted before the Spring Festival, with antimony prices continuing to rise due to speculative demand [10] - A fire at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry has led to production halts, affecting over 2,000 tons of antimony ingot output [11] - Overall market demand remains relatively weak, but expectations for improved demand post-holiday are rising due to new export policies and improved trade conditions [11][12] - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover due to limited supply and expected export recovery [12] Tin Industry - The tin market is experiencing a weak overall trend, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and changes in the AI industry narrative [13] - Supply-side constraints are evident as many smelting companies plan maintenance shutdowns, leading to tighter raw material supplies [14] - Demand from downstream solder companies has diminished, with most enterprises halting production and showing low purchasing intent [14] - The market is expected to remain quiet due to the Spring Festival, with tin prices lacking clear direction [15] Cobalt Industry - Cobalt prices showed a slight rebound, but market changes remain limited due to tight upstream raw material supplies [17] - Trade and downstream inquiries have largely ceased, leading to a quiet market atmosphere [18] - As the Spring Festival approaches, many smelting plants are reducing operations, tightening available market supply [19] - Post-holiday, prices may rise again due to supply constraints and cost support from raw materials [22] Nickel Industry - Indonesia's nickel mining quota reduction policy for 2026 has cut the overall quota from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260-270 million tons, a reduction of nearly 30% [22] - Supply disruptions are exacerbated by seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines and Indonesia, leading to a tight supply situation [22] - Downstream companies are optimistic about post-holiday market conditions, with some early stockpiling observed [23] Companies to Watch - Tungsten: Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, Xianglu Tungsten [2] - Lithium: Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianhua New Energy, Zhongkuang Resources, Salt Lake Co. [9] - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous, Beijiete, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining [13] - Tin: Huaxi Nonferrous, Xiyang Silver Tin [16] - Cobalt: Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, Tengyuan Cobalt [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The current global consumption of copper is strong, and there is significant rigid demand support. The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper prices in the medium - term, and in the short - to - medium term, the stabilization of copper prices depends on whether precious metals stabilize. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 97,000 and 99,000 for SHFE copper [1] - **Aluminum**: After the sharp correction of the aluminum market, wait for the supply - demand negative factors to materialize and then go long. If the Iranian situation deteriorates, it may cause aluminum prices to rise [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals of zinc are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation elasticity. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] - **Nickel**: The short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas [7] - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term market is dominated by the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector, with continuous disturbances from Indonesian quota news [11] - **Lead**: The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] - **Tin**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly observe. In the long - term, if there is a macro turning point, the price may fluctuate downward significantly in the second half of the year [17] - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are strong, and there is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases to a low level [23] 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from - 120 to - 110, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 359, the SHFE copper inventory increased by 23,564 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 7,225 tons [1] - **Analysis**: The US's ability to siphon inventory is disappearing, causing concerns about inventory delivery to the LME. However, global copper consumption is strong, and there is rigid demand support. The industrial end still provides support [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 190 yuan/ton, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 52,200 tons [1] - **Analysis**: The aluminum market corrected sharply, with weak demand. The supply side had unexpected increases, and it is advisable to go long after the supply - demand negative factors are realized. The deterioration of the Iranian situation may push up aluminum prices [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140 yuan/ton, the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 16,336 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,275 tons [1][2][3] - **Analysis**: On the supply side, domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward. On the demand side, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is average. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [4] Nickel - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SHFE nickel spot price decreased by 5,250 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 702 tons [7] - **Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was weak, and the short - term fundamentals were weak. The market is affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas and overall non - ferrous sentiment [7] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils, 304 hot - rolled coils, 201 cold - rolled coils, 430 cold - rolled coils, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [11] - **Analysis**: Steel mill production decreased slightly month - on - month, demand entered the off - season, and the fundamentals remained weak. The market is affected by Indonesian quota news and overall non - ferrous sentiment [11] Lead - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the social inventory increased by 8,715 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 250 tons [14][15] - **Analysis**: On the supply side, production decreased seasonally. On the demand side, battery production decreased, and inventory accumulated. The supply - demand contradiction was alleviated, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices in the short term [15] Tin - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the tin spot import profit increased by 7,169.71, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons [16][17] - **Analysis**: The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side has different views on restocking. In the short term, it is recommended to observe, and in the long - term, there may be a large downward fluctuation [17] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 456 [21] - **Analysis**: Production in the southwest region decreased, and a large factory in Xinjiang cut production. In the short term, supply and demand are close to balance, and in the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From February 9 to 13, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1,250 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 1,477 [23] - **Analysis**: In the short term, the fundamentals are strong, with upstream maintenance exceeding expectations and downstream maintenance falling short of expectations. There is a large space for calendar - spread arbitrage in the positive direction if the intermediate inventory further decreases [23]

www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 联络人 作者 企业评级部 | 陈田田 010-66428877 | | --- | | ttchen@ccxi.com.cn | | 刘紫萱 010-66428877 | | zxliu@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 中国有色金属行业 中国有色金属行业展望，2026 年 2 月 在矿端供应偏紧、需求韧性较强的背景下，预计 2026 年有色金属行 业保持较高景气度，全球财政与货币政策调整、贸易摩擦、地缘政 治等因素将对行业发展形成扰动，基本金属价格中枢存在上行或高 位震荡预期；加工费低迷、行业竞争加剧令冶炼加工环节承压，行 业利润将进一步向资源自给率高、成本控制能力强的企业集中，整 体信用水平保持稳定。 中国有色金属行业展望为维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个 月行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 核心观点 1 2026 年 2 月 目录 核心观点 1 分析思路 2 行业基本面 2 行业财务表现 14 结论 22 附表 23 中诚信 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/02/11 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2026/02/04 -275 7997 233004 159772 -1050.86 216.31 36.0 43.0 -81.84 178650 22925 2026/02/05 -225 5843 233004 160679 93.86 158.80 37.0 44.0 -77.58 180575 19950 2026/02/06 -135 5358 248911 160172 -1123.62 412.12 37.0 44.0 -70.95 183275 19300 2026/02/09 -120 5852 248911 157128 -606.22 131.50 38.0 44.0 -77.37 184300 19475 2026/02/10 -125 5778 248911 165939 -1117.87 -150.93 38.0 44.0 -76.10 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance and outlook of various metals, particularly gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony, indicating a mixed market with some upward momentum in precious metals and cautious recovery in base metals [2][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices showed strong upward momentum, with London gold prices reaching $4,611.05 per ounce, an increase of $117.20 per ounce from the previous week, marking a rise of 2.59% [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, which may influence gold prices further [4]. Group 2: Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices experienced a slight decline, with LME copper closing at $12,925 per ton, down $65 per ton, a decrease of 0.50% [5]. - Domestic copper inventory increased, with SHFE copper inventory at 213,515 tons, up 4,600 tons from the previous week [5]. - Aluminum prices also saw a minor decrease, with domestic electrolytic aluminum priced at 24,000 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan [7]. - The operating rate for domestic copper rod production increased significantly, indicating a recovery in downstream demand [7]. Group 3: Tin and Antimony - Tin prices are expected to remain stable at high levels, with domestic refined tin prices at 414,640 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,639.40 yuan [8]. - Antimony demand has improved, leading to a price rebound, with domestic antimony ingot prices rising [9]. Group 4: Investment Ratings and Recommendations - The copper industry maintains a "recommended" investment rating due to ongoing tightness in copper supply [10]. - The aluminum industry also holds a "recommended" investment rating, supported by rigid supply conditions [11]. - Tin and antimony industries are rated as "recommended" as well, with tight supply supporting tin prices and a rebound in antimony prices after a decline [11]. - Key stock recommendations include companies in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, such as Zijin Mining and Zhongjin Gold [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the expected US refined copper tariff leading to inventory transfer and investment fund inflows. The future performance of copper prices will depend on terminal demand, US restocking, and China's demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - inventory quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum price changes are mainly dominated by expected trading, with amplified price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously expected, but strong expectations can support the current high price [1][2] - The zinc supply side is facing a tightening situation, while domestic demand is seasonally weak. The price center may be difficult to decline deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - The short - term fundamental situation of nickel is weak, with the supply slightly decreasing, overall weak demand, and inventory accumulation in the LME. The short - term policy and fundamentals are in a game state [6][7] - The stainless - steel market has high - level production, mainly rigid demand, and slightly decreasing inventory. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro trend. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the spot is still relatively tight, and it is recommended to pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices are rising, with supply disturbances in major producing countries and strong downstream restocking demand. In the short term, the upward driving force is strong, and in the long term, demand determines the upside space [13] - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are approaching balance, with short - term prices expected to oscillate with costs and long - term prices expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] - Lithium prices are rising, driven by potential disturbances in the resource end, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment. The raw material supply is tight, and downstream procurement is cautious [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 125, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 438, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 4325 tons. The spot import profit decreased by 547.20 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The price increase was due to the expected US tariff and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased, the domestic alumina price decreased by 3, and the inventory in the aluminum exchange remained unchanged [1] - **Market Outlook**: Price changes are dominated by expected trading, with weak domestic apparent demand and strong expectations supporting the high price [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong zinc ingots increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 tons. The futures import profit decreased by 78.46 [5] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side is tightening, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in the US is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1200, the spot import return changed, and the LME inventory decreased by 414 tons [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term fundamentals are weak, with supply slightly decreasing, weak demand, and inventory accumulation in the LME. Policy and fundamentals are in a game state [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and waste stainless steel remained unchanged. The inventory is at a high level with a slight decrease [11] - **Market Outlook**: High - level production, mainly rigid demand, and price is mainly driven by nickel price [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the spot premium decreased by 10, the LME inventory decreased by 2525 tons, and the five - region social inventory increased to 19,600 tons [12] - **Market Outlook**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the spot is still tight. Pay attention to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the tin price center increased, the LME inventory increased by 25 tons [12][13] - **Market Outlook**: Supply disturbances exist in major producing countries, downstream restocking demand is strong. Short - term upward driving force is strong, and long - term demand determines upside space [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan and 553 in East China and Tianjin increased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 240 [16] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand are approaching balance, short - term prices oscillate with costs, and long - term prices oscillate at the cycle bottom [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From January 7th to 13th, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 7500, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 928 [19] - **Market Outlook**: Lithium prices are rising due to resource - end disturbances, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Raw material supply is tight, and downstream procurement is cautious [19]