每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 矿业ETF（561330）涨超1.7%，连续3日资金净流入，把握年内涨超有色的矿业ETF布局机会。 相关机构表示，12月美联储降息预期有所降温，整体来看，宏观面预期反复，但整体稳定。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降 幅扩大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰动继续支撑基本金属价 格，但宏观预期反复及需求一般限制价格上行高度，基本金属冲高回落，重新转为震荡整理；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好有色金属价格 走势。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、 稀有金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, finding support at the 85,000 yuan level. The current slow inventory build - up pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with fundamentals remaining moderately weak. The 85,000 yuan level may be a psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1]. - **Aluminum**: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production is finalized, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. Future aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - **Zinc**: This week, the zinc price center has risen. Supply - side TC is accelerating its decline. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and overseas production faces some resistance. The export window has opened. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply has slightly increased in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains high. With Indonesia's policy support, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. - **Lead**: This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply - side situation has improved, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13]. - **Tin**: This week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply and demand are currently weak. In the short - term, it is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, consider holding at low prices near the cost line [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In Q4, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices will likely fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. Short - term supply and demand are strong, with a de - stocking trend. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction and speculative demand [17]. - **Nickel**: The supply of pure nickel has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. With policy support from Indonesia, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [21]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by - 20, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 20, and the inventory in the previous period's exchange increased by 1,124 tons. The spot import profit decreased by 241.83 yuan, and the March import profit decreased by 53.21 yuan [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, finding support at 85,000 yuan. The macro - market is waiting for the release of TGA account liquidity. The market at the Shanghai Copper Conference is generally optimistic about next year's demand. However, the copper rod operating rate has declined, and the substitution effect has weakened. The current slow inventory build - up may continue until Q1 next year [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 40 yuan, and the domestic alumina price decreased by 1 yuan. The aluminum LME inventory remained unchanged [2][20]. - **Market Analysis**: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production is finalized, and high overseas electricity prices increase the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. The domestic aluminum market is stronger than the overseas market, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited. Future supply and demand may remain in a tight balance [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot premium of zinc increased by 10, and the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 50 yuan. The domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory increased by 575 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the zinc price center has risen. The supply - side TC is accelerating its decline, and the demand is seasonally weak domestically. Overseas production faces some resistance due to processing fees. The export window has opened [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 100 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In October, the supply of stainless steel slightly increased, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory remains high. With Indonesia's policy support, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot premium of lead remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25 yuan. The LME inventory decreased by 1,500 tons [13]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, lead prices fluctuated at a high level. The supply - side situation has improved, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [13]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the spot import profit decreased by 1,918.03 yuan, and the spot export profit increased by 1,194 yuan. The LME inventory increased by 40 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply and demand are currently weak. In the short - term, it is advisable to follow the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, consider holding at low prices near the cost line [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 15 yuan, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 15 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 143 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: In Q4, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a slightly loose balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices will likely fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1,000 yuan, and the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 1,000 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices have fluctuated widely. Short - term supply and demand are strong, with a de - stocking trend. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction and speculative demand [17]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 6 - 12, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of high - nickel iron was not provided. The Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 700 yuan. The domestic and overseas inventories decreased by 1,194 tons and 1,104 tons respectively [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. With policy support from Indonesia, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices made a slight correction this week, finding support at the 85,000 level from downstream concentrated price fixing. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak. The 85,000 level is a psychological price for downstream price fixing, and the industry support at this level should be monitored [1]. - The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and the high electricity prices overseas have increased the expectation of production cuts in other capacities. Aluminum prices have strengthened significantly, but the domestic demand for aluminum ingots and aluminum products has weakened, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, and it is likely to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has risen this week. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened under the current pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level. With the Indonesian policy having a certain motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [9]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week, and the near - term spread strengthened. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, and cautious operation is recommended [12]. - Tin prices fluctuated this week. The supply has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing. The upward potential in the future depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding willingness [16]. - The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 825, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices corrected slightly. The market is generally not pessimistic about next year's demand. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until Q1 next year, and the 85,000 level may be a psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots increased, the domestic and imported alumina prices remained unchanged, the domestic social inventory of aluminum was not provided in the table, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term reduction of electrolytic aluminum production in Iceland has been finalized, and high overseas electricity prices have increased the expectation of production cuts. Aluminum prices have strengthened, but the domestic demand has weakened, and the inventory has increased. The future supply and demand may remain in a tight balance [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of zinc changed, the prices of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 400 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened. Given the weak domestic consumption and potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased by 50, and the prices of other products remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Steel mills increased production slightly in October, demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, and inventory remains at a high level [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot premium of lead remained unchanged, the social inventory was not clearly presented in the table, and the LME inventory increased by 24,525 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been partially alleviated, but the demand is expected to weaken. It is predicted that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the spot import and export earnings of tin changed, the LME inventory decreased by 20 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of tin has marginally recovered, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 176 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon in Q4 are expected to be in a slightly loose balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate increased, the basis of the main and near - term contracts changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 608 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is generally decreasing [16]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 - 11, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel increased by 150, and the LME inventory decreased by 96 [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of nickel is slightly reduced, the demand is weak, and the inventory is continuously increasing. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be monitored [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices slightly pulled back this week, finding support from downstream centralized price fixing at the 85,000 level. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, with the fundamentals remaining stable but weak [1]. - Aluminum prices strengthened significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. Future aluminum supply and demand may remain in a tight balance, being prone to rise in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - Zinc prices moved higher this week. The price center may be difficult to decline significantly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - Lead prices fluctuated at a high level this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is advisable to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices oscillated this week. The domestic fundamentals will maintain a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold positions at low prices near the cost line [15]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to be in a slightly loose balance in Q4, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory - reduction trend will be maintained. The upward potential will depend on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [16]. - Nickel supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventories continued to accumulate. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [20]. - Stainless steel fundamentals remained weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the spot premium of Shanghai copper increased by 25, the waste - refined copper price difference increased by 284, and the LME inventory increased by 375 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, the copper price slightly pulled back, and the 85,000 level obtained downstream concentrated price - fixing support. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 50 - 60 yuan/ton, the domestic alumina price decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Iceland's long - term reduction in electrolytic aluminum production was finalized, and the price of aluminum strengthened significantly. The future supply and demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be worse than expected [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the zinc price center moved higher. The domestic social inventory was volatile, and the overseas LME inventory was oscillating at a low level [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the demand is seasonally weak. The export window has opened, and there is a short - term risk of price decline. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [5]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, lead prices fluctuated at a high level, and the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of lead is gradually recovering, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, tin prices oscillated, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity. The domestic fundamentals are in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the basis of industrial silicon decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 75 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a slightly loose balance in Q4, and prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 159 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the expected resumption of production in Jiangxi mines, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory - reduction trend will be maintained [16]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, nickel prices increased slightly, and the LME inventory increased by 300 tons [20]. - **Market Analysis**: Nickel supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventories continued to accumulate. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [20]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 4th to 10th, the prices of stainless steel products remained stable, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 100 yuan/ton [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of stainless steel remained weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, copper prices slightly declined, with support from downstream concentrated price fixing at the 85,000 level. The slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals remain stable but weak. Attention should be paid to the industrial support at the 85,000 level [1]. - Aluminum prices have risen significantly, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market. The future supply - demand of aluminum may remain in a tight balance, being easy to rise but difficult to fall in the long - term, but the actual performance may fall short of expectations [2]. - The center of zinc prices has increased. The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak, and with the Indonesian policy having a certain price - supporting motivation, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary production and the increase in warehouse receipts [12]. - Tin prices are oscillating. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - The supply and demand of industrial silicon in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state, with prices expected to oscillate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices fluctuate widely. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. - The short - term fundamentals of nickel are weak. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and price - supporting motivation from the policy end, attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, the premium and discount changed, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1425 tons. The LME inventory also increased, and the LME cancelled warrants increased by 575 tons [1]. - **Market Analysis**: This week, copper prices slightly declined, and the market's view of next year's demand is not pessimistic. The current slow inventory accumulation pattern may continue until the first quarter of next year, and the fundamentals are stable but weak. The 85,000 level may be the psychological price for downstream price fixing [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots changed, and the domestic alumina price decreased slightly. The inventory in the Shanghai aluminum exchange decreased by 239 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 850 tons [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The long - term reduction of Iceland's electrolytic aluminum production is confirmed, and the expectation of production reduction of other capacities is rising. Aluminum prices have risen significantly, and the future supply - demand may remain in a tight balance, but the actual performance may be disappointing [2]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the center of zinc prices increased. The domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly, and the LME inventory increased by 800 tons [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side shows a tightening trend, and the demand side is weak. The export window has opened, and there is some inventory delivery overseas. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [5]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply has increased slightly, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory remains at a high level. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [9]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lead prices oscillated at a high level. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2583 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1800 tons [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has some relief in the supply - demand contradiction, and the demand side has a weakening expectation. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [12]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, tin prices oscillated. The LME inventory increased by 60 tons [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has marginal improvement, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid demand. The domestic fundamentals are in a short - term state of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and in the long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, the basis of industrial silicon in different regions changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 101 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production in the northwest region is basically stable, and the supply and demand in the fourth quarter are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated widely. The upstream inventory has decreased significantly, and the futures - cash spread has changed [16]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, and the overall inventory is decreasing. The upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [16]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From November 3rd to 7th, 2025, nickel prices changed slightly. The domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply side has a slight decline in pure nickel production, the demand side is weak, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides short - term trend judgments and investment suggestions for each metal [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - The open interest of Shanghai copper futures fell below the MA20 moving average. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for eight consecutive months, and high copper prices in China are suppressing demand. The copper price is expected to continue to correct after short - term high - level fluctuations. Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.80 thousand tons at the beginning of the week. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance in fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has an oversupply situation, with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, supporting the spot premium. The domestic zinc price was also supported by the decline in domestic and foreign TC. After the consumption peak season ended, the long - position funds took profits. The zinc price is expected to find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand was weak. The reduction in production by stainless - steel plants needs further observation. The price of pure nickel inventory decreased, while the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel increased. The price of Shanghai nickel is expected to move downward [6] Tin - The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed lower. The domestic tin supply is in a real shortage. It is advisable to short on rallies or wait for a clear breakdown [7] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level. The market supply and demand were strong. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon futures declined significantly, affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is also weakening. The short - term price will fluctuate, with limited upside space [9] Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon futures declined significantly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers continued to rise. The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation phase in the short term [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report provides weekly viewpoints on various non - ferrous metals, analyzing their supply, demand, price trends, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies based on different market conditions [1] Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Copper prices hitting new highs are supported by supply - demand fundamentals and high capital allocation interest, but there is a risk of correction after reaching high levels due to concerns about high - price - suppressed consumption. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average and hold some long positions based on it [1] - **Analysis**: Shanghai copper has a small discount, and Indonesia has issued an export permit for 400,000 tons of copper concentrate. The supply - demand situation is weak in China, with low processing fees for concentrates and possible slowdown in copper exports from Zambia to China. Overseas, there may be some release of concentrate inventory from a mine. There are different views among investment banks on copper prices [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market is mainly driven by macro factors and shows a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to be cautious about the upward space of Shanghai aluminum in the short - term [1] - **Analysis**: The trading of overseas bauxite is quiet, and the domestic alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. The alumina market is in significant surplus. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased slightly, and the inventory and spot situation are unremarkable [1] Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage in the zinc market. Do not short - sell zinc in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to the high - level range of 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [1] - **Analysis**: Low inventory supports the strength of LME zinc, and the domestic zinc export window is open. The smelting profit of domestic smelters is high, and the demand for winter storage is strong. The consumption in October was weak, but there was a slight improvement in November. The overall consumption is expected to weaken, and the export data may be better [1] Lead - **Viewpoint**: Be vigilant about long - positions leaving at high levels. Monitor overseas inventory changes. The upward space of lead in the fourth quarter is restricted by fundamentals [1] - **Analysis**: The external market has risen, and the domestic market is short of supply. The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has also decreased. The consumption of energy storage and data centers is strong, but the battery export outlook is not good. The supply pressure is increasing [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The nickel market is in a weak operation, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading [1] - **Analysis**: The nickel market is in a long - position shock, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded. The downstream demand is weak, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of pure nickel has decreased, while the inventory of nickel iron and stainless steel has increased [1] Tin - **Viewpoint**: Tin prices are volatile and have certain support. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies or conduct right - side trading after a clear breakout [1] - **Analysis**: The supply of tin concentrates is tight, and the production is restricted by raw materials. The consumption in traditional fields is average, but there is some rigid - demand point - pricing. The inventory has decreased slightly in some statistics, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The futures price is in a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [1] - **Analysis**: The futures price has risen and then fallen, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory of the whole market has decreased, and the price of Australian ore has strengthened [1] Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are both weak. The disk is expected to remain firm, but the upward space is restricted by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [1] - **Analysis**: The production capacity growth in Xinjiang has slowed down, and the production in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased due to the dry season. The inventory has decreased slightly [1] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental realities. The short - term sentiment is easy to rise and difficult to fall, but there is a risk of correction. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to policy trends [1] - **Analysis**: The futures price has broken through 55,000 yuan/ton. The production in October is expected to increase, and the supply and demand structure needs further observation. The factory inventory has increased, reflecting supply pressure [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Alumina: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly stated, represented by "文文文" [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] - Tin: Not clearly stated, represented by "な女女" [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly stated, represented by "ななな" [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals showing different trends and influencing factors [2][3][4] - Market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations all play important roles in determining the price trends of various non - ferrous metals [9][10][11] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices reaching new highs are supported by supply - loss themes and high capital allocation interest. There are concerns about high prices suppressing consumption in the medium - and short - term. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, with low processing fees. The closure of the port in Tanzania may slow down copper exports to China in November. There is a risk of short - term correction after reaching a record high, but the MA20 moving average provides strong support [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price rose. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the apparent consumption was basically flat year - on - year. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has a supply - surplus situation, with limited rebound space [3] Zinc - The zinc ingot export window is open. LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and SMM zinc social inventory decreased. Domestic and imported ore TC decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly, with weak downstream demand. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, and the overall nickel industry chain price may be dragged down. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation with a downward - moving center of gravity [7] Tin - Tin prices oscillated last week, mainly following the copper price rhythm. The closure of the port in Tanzania may affect tin exports to China. There is still demand for spot tin at rigid - need price points. It is advisable to short at high levels or wait for a clear breakthrough [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with active market trading. The market has strong supply and demand. The total inventory decreased. The futures price is strengthening, and it is expected to be in a short - term strong oscillation [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Supply has decreased significantly due to the dry - season production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan. The industry has entered a stage of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to be firm, but the upward space is limited by the uncertainty of polysilicon demand [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are firm, with a slight increase. The market is in a game between policy expectations and fundamental reality. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, but there is a significant risk of high - level correction if policies are not implemented or spot prices do not follow [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - After the National Day holiday, the short - term price of alumina is expected to be weak, with the main contract operating in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The focus of the game in the fourth quarter is the production cut intensity of enterprises after profit decline. [1] - The price of aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton. [3] Zinc - The price of LME zinc remained strong during the National Day holiday. The domestic supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The performance of SHFE zinc will continue to be under pressure. [5] Copper - During the National Day holiday, the overseas copper price continued to rise. The weak US dollar and supply shortage are the important drivers. In the medium - and long - term, the supply shortage of copper ore will solidly support the bottom of the copper price, and the main support is at 84000 - 85000. [7] Tin - The tin price is expected to continue the strong shock. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in "Golden September and Silver October" and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. [9] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main operating range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - The nickel disk is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, with the main reference range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. [14] Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20720 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20 yuan/ton. [1] - The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1687 yuan/ton, down 49.4 from the previous value; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.77, down 0.01 from the previous value. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. [1] - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum is 59.20 million tons, down 7.21% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 50.6 million tons, up 0.21% day - on - day. [1] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and related products remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference of some aluminum products increased. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. [3] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.57 million tons, up 0.72% week - on - week. [3] Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21830 yuan/ton, up 0.92% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 4225 yuan/ton, down 796.03 from the previous value. [5] Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc output was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month. [5] - The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven places is 14.14 million tons, down 9.94% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 3.8 million tons, up 0.13% day - on - day. [5] Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 83240 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference is 3149 yuan/ton, up 13.65% from the previous value. [7] Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper output was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. [7] - The domestic social inventory of copper is 14.83 million tons, up 2.63% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 14.34 million tons, down 0.35% day - on - day. [7] Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin is 277200 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 19477.39 yuan/ton, down 22.88% from the previous value. [9] Fundamental Data - In August, the tin ore import volume was 10267 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous value. [9] - The SHEF inventory of tin is 6559.0 tons, down 1.98% week - on - week; the social inventory is 7890.0 tons, down 6.66% week - on - week. [9] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. [11] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. [11] - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in August was 94177 tons, down 3.75% month - on - month. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference increased by 6.52%. [13] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month. [13] - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 47.74 million tons, up 1.13% week - on - week; the SHFE warehouse receipt is 8.70 million tons, down 0.21% day - on - day. [13] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous value; the futures import profit and loss is - 1076 yuan/ton, up 471 from the previous value. [14] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products is 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel is 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month. [14] - The SHFE inventory is 29834 tons, up 8.49% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 231312 tons, up 0.52% day - on - day. [14]