Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] - Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. In the short term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. The internal - external positive spread can be held, and attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunity between months [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average, and attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12] - Lead prices fluctuate this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level fluctuation next week [15] - Tin prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly; in the long - term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [17] - For industrial silicon, in the short term, there is a slight inventory reduction in August, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support under the current macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. The downstream order support around 7.8 is verified this week. The spot market trading is okay, and attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in recycled rod production on refined copper consumption [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, demand is in the off - season in August with a possible improvement later. Aluminum exports improve, but photovoltaic and overseas demand decline. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC has difficulty rising, and imported TC increases. The smelting increment is further realized in August. Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a short - term supply shortage. Stocks: Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas L inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand: It is weak overall, and the premium is stable recently. Inventory: Domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [9] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills cut production passively. Demand: It is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking increases due to the macro - atmosphere. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decrease slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12] Lead - Supply: Scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead production is at a low level due to high costs. Demand: Battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market fails to reach the peak - season level. Inventory: Exchange inventory reaches a historical high of 70,000 tons [15] Tin - Supply: Domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. Demand: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. Inventory: Domestic inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [17] Industrial Silicon - Production: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' production recovery is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production increases slightly. Supply - demand: In August, there is a slight inventory reduction, and future supply - demand depends on the production recovery of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market: Affected by factors such as inventory reduction data, the market is strong. Supply - demand: Upstream enterprises are willing to sell, downstream procurement is for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trader transactions are more active [19]

1. Overall Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the non - ferrous metals industry. 2. Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with macro - factors and industry fundamentals jointly influencing metal prices. Each metal has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. - Copper prices may consolidate and await further macro - driven factors. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance. Lead prices are expected to be weak. Zinc prices have a large downward risk. Tin prices are expected to oscillate. Nickel prices have callback pressure. Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. Stainless steel prices will continue to consolidate in the short term. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Performance**: Last week, LME copper slightly declined by 0.08% to $9760/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79080 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 0.4 to 8.6 tons, LME inventory slightly increased to 15.6 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.3 to 24.2 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 0.5 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: Copper prices may consolidate and wait for further macro - driven factors. This week, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 77800 - 80200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9950 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: SHFE aluminum's main contract rose 0.41% last week, while LME aluminum fell 0.46% to $2603/ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.4 tons to 58.8 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 0.7 to 10.5 tons, and aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.4 to 13.9 tons. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1.0 to 48.0 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Aluminum prices may experience a short - term oscillatory correction. This week, the reference range for the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2520 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated upward, with the AD2511 contract rising 0.27% to 20165 yuan/ton [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.1 to 4.9 tons, and the total of social and factory inventory slightly increased [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, despite strong cost support [5]. Lead - **Price Performance**: SHFE lead index rose 0.43% to 16849 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose $4 to $1987.5/ton [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons, SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6.18 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.17 tons [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry [7]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.15% to 22521 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose $18.5 to $2835.5/ton [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons, SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 2 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 7.75 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc prices have a large downward risk due to the continued over - supply situation in the medium - term industry [9]. Tin - **Price Performance**: On August 15, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266820 yuan/ton, down 0.22% [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 4 tons to 7426 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 175 tons to 1655 tons. As of August 15, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 10392 tons, an increase of 114 tons from the previous Friday [10]. - **Market Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate. The short - term reference range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin prices is 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: On Friday, SHFE nickel's main contract closed at 120600 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Nickel prices have callback pressure. The reference range for SHFE nickel's main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: On August 15, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 82832 yuan, up 18.62% for the week. The LC2511 contract closed at 86900 yuan, up 1.88% from the previous day and 12.92% for the week [14]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices have uncertainties. The reference range for the main contract on the GZEE is 84300 - 90000 yuan/ton [14]. Alumina - **Price Performance**: On August 15, the alumina index fell 0.84% to 3195 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 1.41 tons to 6.58 tons [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina prices are in an over - capacity situation. It is recommended to short at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Stainless steel futures prices faced resistance in rising, and some product prices slightly declined [18]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease from the previous period, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.99% to 64.45 tons [18]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [18].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.04%至 9670.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜下跌 0.03%至 78360 元 /吨；国内现货进口维系亏损，但亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，市场关注点聚焦在美国与 | | | 其他经济体关税方面的谈判，印度强硬回应美单方面加征关税。另外，30 年期美债拍 卖惨，凸显债务隐忧。国内方面，政策及反内卷预期依然是市场交易的重要考量。库存 | | 铜 | 方面，LME 库存下降 125 吨至 156000 吨；Comex 铜增加 174 吨至 238860 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单下降 201 吨至 20145 吨；BC 铜仓单维系 1553 吨。需求方面，淡季期间，终端订 | | | 单继续表现不足，加工端采购节奏维系刚需。近期海外公布的经济数据疲软，市场担忧 | | | 海外需求，铜价整体表现偏弱。另外，美精炼铜 0 关税下市场对美铜后市有观望情绪， | | | 关注是否存在价格倒挂库存重新外迁风险。综合来看，铜价可能表现偏弱，但金九旺季 ...

2025/8/5 16:22 d6bfaa2eb2fc85df424101a7b1708628.png (4808×9816) | | | 有色金属周度观点 国发期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国授期货 | 研究院有色全属团队 | 2025/8/5 | | 序号 | 品产 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | 衡向铜价震高下调。1) 情绪:美国浸防段232铜芙股征收对象大超预期,夹伦街老瑟利逻排破裂. 夹盘暴跌, 恰老目归到100美元:伦导沪 铜廷徐震荡。7月主要经济体制造业IIII萎缩为主:IIF表示受益关极不确定带来的进口图货需求,上调今年经济增速预期。25至35, 如预期"按兵不动",且然美国6月核心死后同比上激2.8%,创四个月新高,但英国过去两个月非袁就业人数大幅下滑,市场认为8月下调利 | | 1 | | 率为大概率事件,降息交易情绪升温。2)团内供藏:沪桐减仓明显,跌破460日均线后,在7.8万暂获支撑,市况仍属该季。周二观阴报 | | 월 | | 78615元,上科钢开水130元,广东贴水55元,周一胡风铜社库增加300吨至13.43万吨,因产货源与进口铜到货均有 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices in London rose to a one-week high, with expectations of increased buying demand following recent price declines and higher risk appetite among investors [1] - The three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by $69 or 0.72% to $9,736 per ton, marking the highest price since July 10, with a weekly increase of over 0.5% [1] - BHP Group reported a slight increase in copper production for the fourth quarter, reaching 516,200 tons, up 2.25% year-on-year, and an annual production of 2,016,700 tons, an 8% increase from the previous fiscal year [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a rise in copper prices, with the main contract increasing by 510 yuan or 0.65% to 78,410 yuan per ton, although the weekly performance still showed a decline of 0.28% [1] - Other metals on the LME also experienced price increases, with tin rising by 0.68% to $33,240 per ton, zinc by 0.42% to $2,748.5 per ton, and lead by 0.2% to $1,977 per ton [2] - The Shanghai metal market showed significant gains in tin, zinc, and nickel, with tin rising by 2,800 yuan or 1.07% to 264,540 yuan per ton, and nickel increasing by 870 yuan or 0.73% to 120,500 yuan per ton [3]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/07 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 变化 -5 -23 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Zinc - The zinc market is in a long - term supply - side easing cycle. If the mine - end growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, after the "rush to export", if the tariff policy leads to insufficient terminal consumption resilience, the center of zinc prices may move down. In the long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, focusing on the TC growth rate and marginal changes in downstream demand. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 21000 - 21500 [2]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectation restricts the upside space. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. The "rush to export" demand has advanced subsequent demand, and the real demand side may face pressure in Q3. The US copper import tariff policy is a major uncertain variable. The main contract is expected to move between 77000 - 79500 [5]. Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Considering the pessimistic demand expectation, pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm. A short - selling approach is recommended at 260,000 - 265,000 based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is under continuous pressure from industrial overcapacity and weak consumption. In the short term, the fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range. The main contract is expected to move between 118000 - 124000. Pay attention to the short - term disturbances from news [9]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak state. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the overall demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short term, the fundamentals are still under pressure. Pay attention to the steel mill's production - cut rhythm. The main contract is expected to move between 12400 - 13000 [12]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term fundamentals are expected to remain relatively loose. The medium - term support is around the cash cost of 2700. For electrolytic aluminum, the LME inventory decline and low domestic inventory support aluminum prices, with the support level around 20000. However, there is still a possibility of adjustment under the conditions of LME warehousing, domestic inventory accumulation, and weakening demand [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still under pressure. In June, there may be an oversupply situation. The market is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main contract expected to move between 56000 - 62000. Pay attention to the upstream dynamics [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.18% to 22030 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 585 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.32 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; imports were 2.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.76%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 58.60%, 55.12%, and 59.00% respectively. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 3.24% to 7.96 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.60% to 12.7 million tons [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.36% to 78400 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The import loss was - 1206 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.06 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%; imports were 25.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production was 75.82%, and that of recycled copper rod production was 29.03%. The domestic social inventory increased by 0.76% to 14.59 million tons, the bonded - area inventory increased by 7.71% to 6.43 million tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.11% to 10.08 million tons, the LME inventory decreased by 3.99% to 9.92 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.78% to 19.99 million tons [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.42% to 263300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 452.13% to 80.99 US dollars/ton. The import loss was - 10123 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.12 [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In May, tin ore imports were 13449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%; refined tin imports were 2076 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.04%; exports were 1770 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate was 61.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.25% to 120625 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 was - 193 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was - 2926 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.92 [9]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.16% to 120887 yuan/ton. The battery - grade nickel sulfate average price decreased by 0.67% to 27400 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In May, China's refined nickel production was 35350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; imports were 8832 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.30% to 25693 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.02% to 39383 tons, the LME inventory increased by 0.76% to 205140 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 0.44% to 699972 tons [9]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.78% to 12700 yuan/ton. The basis difference increased by 23.73% to 365 yuan/ton [12]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) remained unchanged at 60 US dollars/wet ton, and the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.32% to 921 yuan/nickel point [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 179.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.64% to 53.42 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.83% to 33.02 million tons [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.24% to 20720 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 180 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.79% to 3750 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production was 727.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, etc. showed different degrees of change. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.39% to 44.90 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.59% to 34.5 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.08% to 60400 yuan/ton. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) increased by 447.37% to 1040 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%; demand was 83960 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.83%. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1.49% to 97637 tons [15].

有色金属日报 2025-6-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高回落，伦铜微跌 0.24%至 9647 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78350 元/吨。产业层面， 上周三大交易所库存环比减少 1.8 万吨，中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 10.2 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.8 至 11.4 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.6 至 17.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 11 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.2%至 79290 元/吨。中美 经贸磋商机制首次会议进入第二天，尚未取得任何突破，但美方信息偏 于乐观。市场预期美国将在对钢铝收关税后对铜也加征关税推动铜流向 美国，LME 铜库存过去三个月里减少了一半，美国 COMEX 期铜较 LME 期铜的升水达到每吨 1067 美元，但近期市场对于纽伦套利交易兴趣有 所下降。国内现货市场，铜价震荡上涨，下游消费难有明显提升，但社 库维持低位运行，现货升水于平水附近拉锯，BACK 月差收敛，持货商 低价出货意愿有限。铜矿冶炼 TC 负值低位对供应前景带来持续压力， 中美经贸谈判带来希望，近期国内经济数据继续萎靡，旺季转淡以及低 库存等因素交织，铜价或继续维持高位震荡运行。技术上看，沪铜短期 维持偏强震荡，整体运行于 77500-80000 之间，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 11 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 1.25%至 20250 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发 货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。 ...