感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始 感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始请稍后 这个终端的需求包括从电池的这个需求吧就是可能你在下游现在看起来需求都还挺好的因为从这个贸易战过后这个整体大家还是一个可能从这个里沿的这个采购方的话大概是相对偏冷静但是呢也没想到说这个里呢有这么大一个跌幅所以其实这个需求应该来说并不是这一次这个领价下跌的一个主要因素 我感觉因为一般来说的话二季度特别是大概是在五月份左右这个也是全年的这个需求的相对比较低的一个点但是我刚才也说就是可能需求现在还不能完全解释这个问题可能还有一部分的话只能从这个供给方面去找原因那么从这个进入到四月份过后陆续的也会有一些这个澳洲的矿商他们开始发一些这个公告吧 应该看得出来现在大致还是一个成本下降现在大概还看得出来现在是一个因为澳洲的矿山它是有一个成本下降的情况所以在今年一季度我感觉成本下降的话应该是在期货市场特别是在当时的时间点就是在关税的 他们比较紧张的情况下那个时候被很多的解读成了一种成本的坍塌所以明显感觉到可能从矿的成本的角度我感觉可能4月份陆续有他们的财报发了过后就会发现有些矿山的成本下降比较明显包括像我们的马里昂山包 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on solid-state batteries highlights the significant expectations for their "ultimate battery" technology potential, juxtaposed with the harsh realities of "industrialization and cost" challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Technical Challenges and Innovations - The industry is currently experiencing a "route dispute" and "engineering challenges," with various materials like oxides, sulfides, and polymers being explored, indicating that solid-state batteries are still in a phase of "hundreds of schools of thought contending" [2]. - The solid-solid interface issue is recognized as the primary challenge, leading to a dual-line battle focusing on improving the performance of primary materials and employing advanced interface engineering techniques [2][3]. - The industry is engaged in a fierce competition between "performance leaps" and "cost bottlenecks," with energy density targets ranging from 400-500 Wh/kg and significant breakthroughs in ionic conductivity [2][3]. Group 2: Material Development and Performance - Solid-state batteries are seen as a crucial direction for future energy storage, with core advantages in safety and energy density, achieving energy densities of up to 400 Wh/kg [6]. - High-voltage solid-state electrolytes enable the use of high-voltage cathode materials, with short-term dominance of high-nickel ternary materials like NCM811, which has a practical specific capacity exceeding 200 mAh/g [6]. - Long-term prospects favor lithium-rich manganese-based materials, with theoretical specific capacities reaching 350 mAh/g and voltage platforms of 4.5V, viewed as ideal for all-solid-state batteries [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategic Goals - The global industrialization process is accelerating, with China focusing on semi-solid-state technologies in the short term and sulfide routes in the long term, while Japan, Europe, and the U.S. set clear energy density and commercialization goals [7]. - Leading companies in China, such as Rongbai Technology and Ningxia Hanyao, have made technological breakthroughs in high-nickel ternary and lithium-rich manganese-based materials, expediting the industrialization of solid-state battery cathode materials [7]. Group 4: Key Material Innovations - Ganfeng Lithium has achieved significant breakthroughs in both sulfide and oxide solid-state battery technologies, developing high ionic conductivity materials and successfully producing thin electrolyte ceramics [14][15]. - Xiamen Tungsten has focused on optimizing cathode materials to enhance mechanical performance and interface stability, employing various coating technologies to reduce interface resistance [17]. - MOFs (Metal-Organic Frameworks) are emerging as innovative materials in solid-state batteries, showing potential in enhancing battery performance through their unique structural properties [25][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at a high level, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. However, due to national policy - guided clearance of lithium carbonate and the impact of automobile consumption, the prices of domestic and imported lithium carbonate may have an upward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in appropriate quantities and pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Lithium Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with July 11, 2025. The trading volume of the active contract was 1,014,558.00 hands, an increase of 611,742.00 hands; the open interest was 356,161.00 hands, an increase of 33,301.00 hands; the inventory was 11,204.00 tons, a decrease of 399.00 tons [1]. - **Lithium Spot**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, metal lithium, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 64,650.00 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, an increase of 900.00 yuan/ton compared with July 11, 2025 [1]. Lithium - Related Company News - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium mica project phase I with an annual capacity of 816,000 tons of lithium concentrate per month has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's project in Xilin Gol League may be put into production in October 2025, and the total production and sales will reach 21,970 tons per year [3]. - Panasonic Holdings will postpone the production plan of its new EV battery factory in Kansas, USA. Derui Power is promoting the acceptance work of its new production capacity, which will be gradually released according to sales and orders, with the initial production mainly focusing on lithium - manganese and lithium - iron primary batteries [2]. - OaoL plans to produce at least 100 tons of silicon - graphite composite anode materials per year after investing $11 - 20 million in its Moses Lake plant. OneD Battery Sciences has closed its pilot manufacturing plant in Moses Lake due to tariff policies [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in China is expected to increase. Some production lines are under maintenance or capacity upgrading. The inventory of lithium carbonate in China has increased compared with last week. The production of lithium hydroxide in July may decrease, and its inventory may increase [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate in China is 10,600 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and its production volume may increase. The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is 29,500 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4]. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Strategy**: Some companies' production capacity expansion and project progress are in progress. The export volume of some products may change. For example, the export volume of lithium salt in China may be affected by the global supply - demand situation. The production and inventory of various materials such as cobalt, ternary precursors, and ternary materials also show different trends [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in appropriate quantities in the domestic lithium carbonate market, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [5].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 300 million yuan for the current reporting period, compared to a loss of 550 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be a loss of 50 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 950 million yuan in the previous year [1] - Basic earnings per share are expected to be a loss of 0.27 yuan per share, compared to a loss of 0.38 yuan per share in the same period last year [1] Reasons for Performance Change - The battery segment has seen orderly capacity release and sales growth, but overall operating performance has faced certain impacts [1] - The company has made provisions for asset impairment related to inventory and other assets according to accounting standards, contributing to the losses [1] - The decline in the fair value of financial assets, primarily related to Pilbara Minerals Limited, has resulted in fair value change losses, although the company has employed options strategies to hedge some of these losses [1]

Group 1 - New Yi Sheng expects a net profit increase of 327.68%-385.47% for the first half of 2025, reaching between 37 billion to 42 billion yuan, driven by growth in AI-related computing power demand and product structure optimization [2][4] - Xinghui Entertainment plans to sell 99.66% of its stake in the Spanish club Espanyol for 1.3 billion euros, with half of the payment in cash and the other half in shares [3] - *ST Yushun intends to acquire 100% of three companies for a total of 33.5 billion yuan, aiming to diversify its business into data center infrastructure services and related products [4] Group 2 - Salted Fish plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 2.04%, with a major shareholder intending to sell 5,455,572 shares [5] - Lian Microelectronics expects a net loss of approximately 1.21 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [6] - Meinian Health anticipates a net loss of 1.92 billion to 2.36 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue expected to decline by 0.12%-5.83% [7] Group 3 - Chengdi Xiangjiang forecasts a net profit of 28 million to 42 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 69.29 million yuan in the previous year [8] - Jinpu Titanium plans to acquire 100% of Nanjing Lide Oriental Rubber and Plastic Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [9] - Bohai Leasing expects a net loss of 1.8 billion to 2.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 due to goodwill impairment from a subsidiary's asset sale [10] Group 4 - Foton Motor anticipates a net profit increase of approximately 87.5% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 777 million yuan [11] - Shenwan Hongyuan expects a net profit growth of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [12] - Ganfeng Lithium predicts a net loss of 5.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from a loss of 7.6 billion yuan in the previous year [13] Group 5 - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading after the announcement [14] - Xiangyang Bearing expects a net loss of approximately 13 million yuan for the first half of 2025, slightly worse than the previous year's loss [15] - Tianqi Lithium forecasts a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the previous year [16] Group 6 - Shandong Gold anticipates a net profit increase of 84.3%-120.5% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan [17] - Yunnan Geology expects a net profit of 16 million to 23 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [18] - Four-dimensional Map expects a net loss of 319 million to 268 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue growth of 3.07%-14.30% [19] Group 7 - Tangrenshen anticipates a net loss of 54 million to 69 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year's profit [20] - Changbai Mountain expects a net loss of 2.58 million to 1.58 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue decreasing by approximately 7.48% [21] - Jiu Gui Jiu predicts a net profit of 8 million to 12 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 90.08%-93.39% compared to the previous year [22] Group 8 - Hengsheng Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 251 million yuan [23] - Qixia Construction anticipates a net profit of 5.5 million to 8 million yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by increased project completions [24] - Poly Development expects a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 27.35 billion yuan [25] Group 9 - Anyuan Coal anticipates a net loss of 259 million to 310 million yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [26] - Zhonghua Equipment plans to acquire 100% of Yiyang Rubber Machine and Beihua Machine, with stock suspension expected for no more than 10 trading days [27] - Bayi Steel expects a net loss of 650 million to 700 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to weak market conditions [28] Group 10 - Yuegui Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 58.67%-77.12% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 215 million to 240 million yuan [29] - Dalian Friendship expects a net loss of 38 million to 30 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by tax-related issues [30] - Hangfa Power expects a net profit decrease of 84.53%-86.55% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits around 80 million to 92 million yuan [31] Group 11 - Dongfang Zirconium anticipates a net profit increase of 141.77%-156.80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 25 million to 34 million yuan [32] - Hangzhou Steel expects a net profit decrease of 2% from a major shareholder's planned reduction [33] - Jingao Technology predicts a net loss of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, worsening from the previous year's loss [34] Group 12 - Shanshan Co. expects a net profit increase of 810.41%-1265.61% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 160 million to 240 million yuan [35] - Guocheng Mining anticipates a net profit increase of 1046.75%-1174.69% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 493 million to 548 million yuan [36] - Jindi Group expects a net loss of 3.4 billion to 4.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [37] Group 13 - Founder Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 22.96 billion to 24.32 billion yuan [38] - Hasi Lian expects a net loss of 98 million to 80 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [39] - Lanhua Ketech expects a net profit decrease of 89.12%-92.75% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 60 million yuan [40] Group 14 - Shanxi Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 58.17%-70.72% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 5.04 billion to 5.44 billion yuan [41] - Xinda Real Estate expects a net loss of 3.5 billion to 3.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with significant declines in revenue [42] - Xiangcai Co. anticipates a net profit increase of 63.64%-118.19% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 12 million to 16 million yuan [43] Group 15 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, despite an increase in sales volume [44] - Wentai Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 178%-317% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 390 million to 585 million yuan [45] - Ruida Futures expects a net profit increase of 50.56%-83.15% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 206 million to 251 million yuan [46] Group 16 - Debang Co. anticipates a net profit decrease of 84.26%-87.86% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 40 million to 52 million yuan [47] - Jin Yi Culture expects a net loss of 20 million to 32 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant decline from the previous year [48] - Hongdian Film expects a net profit increase of 103.55%-160.09% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 180 million to 230 million yuan [49] Group 17 - Qiaqia Food anticipates a net profit decrease of 71.05%-76.25% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 80 million to 97.5 million yuan [50] - Guotai Haitong expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, estimating profits between 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [51] - Xining Special Steel expects a net loss of approximately 234 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue impacted by low steel prices [52]

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders for the six months ending June 30, 2025, to be in the range of RMB 300 million to RMB 550 million, representing a decrease in net loss of approximately 27.67% to 60.55% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 1 - The expected net loss range for the company is RMB 300 million to RMB 550 million, a significant improvement from the previous year's loss [1] - The expected loss after excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between RMB 500 million and RMB 950 million, which is an increase of approximately 211.74% to 492.30% compared to the previous year [1] - The basic loss per share is anticipated to be between RMB 0.15 and RMB 0.27, compared to a loss of RMB 0.38 per share in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The primary reason for the performance change is the continuous decline in sales prices of lithium salts and lithium battery products, which has impacted overall operational performance despite growth in the battery segment's production capacity and sales [1] - The company has made provisions for asset impairment related to inventory and other assets according to Chinese accounting standards [1] - The company generated significant non-recurring income during the reporting period, mainly due to investment income and fair value changes [2] - The investment income was derived from the disposal of certain energy storage projects by its subsidiary Shenzhen Yichu Energy Technology Co., Ltd., as well as the disposal of shares in other companies [2] - The company experienced fair value losses due to the continuous decline in the price of financial assets primarily held in Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS) [2] - A hedging strategy using options was employed to mitigate the risk exposure from the decline in PLS stock price, which helped offset some of the fair value losses [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to report a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease from a loss of 760 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating a narrowing of losses year-on-year [1] - Tianqi Lithium is projected to achieve a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 5.006 billion yuan in the previous year, indicating a turnaround to profitability [1][2] Group 2: Business Operations - Tianqi Lithium is involved in the production, processing, and sales of lithium concentrate and lithium chemical products, with significant control over the Greenbushes lithium spodumene mine, which accounts for 30% of global hard rock lithium production in 2023 [2] - The pricing mechanism for Tianqi Lithium's chemical-grade lithium concentrate will be updated to reflect the average monthly prices from four major pricing agencies, aligning procurement costs more closely with market prices [3] Group 3: Investment and Financial Impact - Ganfeng Lithium's increased losses are attributed to significant non-recurring gains, including investment income from the disposal of energy storage projects and other equity stakes, despite a decline in lithium salt and battery product sales prices [6][7] - Tianqi Lithium anticipates an increase in investment income due to the expected growth in performance from its joint venture SQM in the first half of 2025 [5]

证券代码：002460 证券简称：赣锋锂业 编号：临2025-087 江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预告 1、业绩预告期间：2025 年 1 月 1 日—2025 年 6 月 30 日 2、预计的经营业绩： √亏损 扭亏为盈 同向上升 同向下降 | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属上市公司股 | 亏损：55,000 万元 | – 30,000 | 万元 | 亏损： | | | 东的净利润 | | | | 76,037.69 | 万元 | | 扣除非经常性损 | 亏损：95,000 万元 | –50,000 | 万元 | 亏损： | | | 益后的净利润 | | | | 16,039.11 | 万元 | | 基本每股收益 | 亏损：0.27 | 元/股–0.15 | 元/股 | 亏损：0.38 | 元/股 | 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容的真实、准确和完整，没 有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、本期业绩预计情况 本次业绩预告相关的财务数据是公司财务部 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has invested billions in MP Materials to accelerate the independence of U.S. rare earth magnets, but global production remains highly concentrated in China in the short term [9][14][45] - Nickel prices have decreased due to a significant drop in demand and production halts in Indonesia, which may impact local mining operations [12][20][23] - Cobalt prices have risen due to supply tightening from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for approximately 75% of global electric vehicle battery supply [13][31] - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, but future price movements will depend on downstream demand recovery [7][38][44] - Antimony prices have remained stable, with domestic supply still tight, and production expected to decline in the coming months [32][36] Summary by Sections Rare Earth Industry - MP Materials announced a partnership with the DoD to enhance domestic production capabilities, with a new magnet manufacturing facility expected to be operational by 2028 [45][46] - The DoD has committed to a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, ensuring stable cash flow for MP Materials [46][47] Nickel Industry - As of July 11, LME nickel spot price was $14,955 per ton, down 1.09% from July 4, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 1.83% [20] - Domestic NPI smelting costs remain under pressure, affecting the acceptance of high-priced raw materials [20][23] Cobalt Industry - As of July 11, cobalt prices have shown mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt at 249,300 yuan per ton, down 0.99%, while cobalt oxide increased by 1.54% [24][31] - The extension of a temporary export ban by the Congolese government is expected to tighten global cobalt supply [31] Lithium Industry - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 63,800 yuan per ton, up 2.36% as of July 11 [7][38] - Market sentiment is cautious, with inventory levels remaining high, limiting upward price movement [38][44] Antimony Industry - Domestic antimony ingot prices have stabilized, with supply constraints expected to support future pricing [32][36]