Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The equity market is expected to perform well, with a projected net profit growth of 50% year-on-year for 2025, and a 16% growth in 2026 from a high base [1][30] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is anticipated to reach 19.814 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a 67% year-on-year increase [1][9] - The report highlights a significant recovery in IPO and refinancing activities, with IPO fundraising expected to grow by 96% in 2025 [1][14] - The bond issuance scale is expected to increase steadily, with a 13% year-on-year growth in 2025 [1][19] - The report emphasizes the low valuation of brokerage stocks and the potential for valuation recovery, particularly for large brokerages [1][24] Summary by Sections 1. Equity Market Performance - The average daily trading volume of stock funds is projected at 19.814 trillion yuan, a 67% increase year-on-year [1][9] - The number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai market is expected to average 2.5 million per month, an 8% increase from 2024 [1][9] - The financing balance is projected to reach 2.5242 trillion yuan, a 36% increase year-on-year [1][12] - The IPO market is expected to see 116 IPOs raising 131.8 billion yuan, a 96% increase year-on-year [1][14] - The refinancing market is expected to recover significantly, with a total of 950.9 billion yuan raised, a 326% increase [1][18] 2. Profit Forecast for 2025 - The report forecasts a 50% year-on-year increase in net profit for listed brokerages in 2025, with a 16% increase in Q4 [1][30] - The total revenue for the industry is expected to grow by 21% year-on-year [1][30] 3. 2026 Outlook - The report anticipates a 16% year-on-year increase in net profit for the industry in 2026, based on high baseline assumptions [1][37] - The growth in brokerage income from various segments is expected, including a 25% increase in brokerage business revenue [1][37] 4. Valuation and Recommendations - The report notes that the current valuation of brokerages is relatively low, with the CITIC Securities II index at 1.43x PB, indicating potential for valuation recovery [1][24] - Key recommendations include major brokerages such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, and Guotai Junan [1][24]

2月3日，广发证券跌1.29%，截至发稿，报21.44元/股，成交15.82亿元，换手率1.26%，总市值1677.65 亿元。广发证券股价已经连续3天下跌，区间累计跌幅6.42%。 资料显示，广发证券股份有限公司位于广东省广州市天河区马场路26号广发证券大厦，成立日期1994年 1月21日，上市日期1997年6月11日，公司主营业务涉及投资银行业务、财富管理业务、交易及机构业务 和投资管理业务。主营业务收入构成为：财富管理业务40.08%，交易及机构业务32.27%，投资管理业 务24.97%，投资银行业务2.14%，其他0.54%。 从广发证券十大流通股东角度 数据显示，华泰柏瑞基金旗下1只基金位居广发证券十大流通股东。华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）三 季度减持240.35万股，持有股数5028.11万股，占流通股的比例为0.66%。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约 1407.87万元。连续3天下跌期间浮亏损失7391.33万元。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）成立日期2012年5月4日，最新规模4222.58亿。今年以来亏损0.43%， 同类排名4554/5562；近一年收益23.77%，同 ...

Group 1 - The seed industry is currently in a destocking phase, with overall inventory levels high, reaching over 12 billion yuan in Q3 2025, the highest since 2015 [1] - The area for seed production in 2025 is projected to be 3.85 million acres, a 10% decrease year-on-year, with production expected to be 1.527 billion kilograms, also down 10% [1] - The net profit for listed seed companies, excluding non-recurring gains, is expected to be close to -1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, indicating significant losses [1] Group 2 - The newly revised Plant Variety Protection Regulations in April 2025 aim to enhance variety rights protection and encourage breeding innovation, with a notable decrease in the number of corn varieties approved [2] - A total of 1,564 crop varieties were approved in the national review for 2025, remaining stable compared to 2024, but with a significant reduction in corn varieties [2] Group 3 - The number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties has been steadily increasing, with 53 new varieties expected by 2025, showing significant improvements in yield and disease resistance [3] - New rice varieties from Longping High-Tech have demonstrated over 5% yield increase in trials, with improved disease resistance and quality [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025 corn spring planting technical guidelines emphasize the importance of reasonable planting density, with some varieties suitable for densities of 6,500 to 7,000 plants per acre [4] - The average yield of newly approved corn varieties has surpassed 800 kilograms per acre, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with 61 varieties in the Northwest ecological zone exceeding 1,000 kilograms per acre [4]

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，AI的Memory时刻，AI记忆成为支撑上下文连续性、个性化 与历史信息复用的底层能力，持续扩展模型能力边界，有望促进AI Agent等应用加速落地。AI记忆的价 值正从"费用项"转变为"资产项"，相关上游基础设施价值量、重要性将不断提升。建议关注产业链核心 受益标的。 广发证券主要观点如下： 英伟达推出AI推理上下文存储平台ICMS 随用户多轮会话与Agent持续运行带来的KVCache不断累积，系统对可长期留存并按需回填的分层 KVCache形成刚性需求，推动上下文从HBM外溢至DRAM、SSD等分层介质承接。为此，NVIDIA推出 上下文记忆存储架构ICMS，面向Agent与多轮推理场景提供"长期上下文记忆层"，一方面承载更大规模 KVCache，另一方面以低延迟将历史KVCache回填到多GPU节点的多回合推理会话;其KV访问模式呈现 低TTFT约束下的高并发、高吞吐随机读取。 ICMS平台对SSD使用效果好 经济性与扩展性方面，SSD单位成本显著低于GPU内存，且可按TB、PB容量扩展，是长期上下文的天 然承载介质。可行性方面，根据《Context Memor ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，新型储能经济性改善，火电盈利稳定性提升，抽蓄稳中提 质。2026年我国新型储能需求有望保持高景气增长，有望带动储能产业链各环节盈利的改善，推荐储能 电池及材料龙头企业。具有选址、运营优势的龙头集成企业有望实现储能电站更高收益率并提高市占 率。电力交易能力有望成为储能电站运营的核心壁垒。 近年来，我国在电力市场化改革过程中持续强化对容量电价机制建设的政策引导。2026年1月30日，国 家发展改革委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》(发改价格〔2026〕114号)， 强调：分类完善煤电、天然气发电、抽水蓄能、新型储能容量电价机制，优化电力市场机制，通过"保 底工资"的制度性安排，推动相关电源顶峰时发电保供，有力促进新能源消纳利用;容量电价新政亦首次 明确可靠容量补偿标准确定原则，有望从"分类补偿"有序扩展至"同工同酬"，推动各类调节性电源的公 平竞争。此外，多省区率先发布落地政策：内蒙古与新疆实行储能放电量补偿，较难动态反映容量供 需;河北容量补偿未建立容量补偿设定标准，本质为固定式补偿;甘肃、青海与宁夏三地在容量电费的计 算方法上统一采用了"有效容量×容 ...

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2025年中国城镇宠物(犬猫)消费市场规模约3126亿元，同比 2024年增长4%。其中猫消费市场增速高于犬消费市场增速，分别为5%与3%。2025年宠物行业大盘年增 速4%，新宠物主与宠均消费提升驱动行业持续增长。复盘来看，品类与渠道红利驱动格局变化。当前 时点，重视功能性食品的产品风口机会，看好具备研发实力与销售能力的龙头公司推动新品类渗透率提 升，引领产业趋势。 品类创新 烘焙粮竞争日趋激烈，功能性食品或成为增长蓝海。根据宠物行业白皮书，消费者的烘焙粮与冻干添加 粮的消费偏好已超越了膨化粮，鲜粮与主食湿粮的消费偏好近年有所提升。当前烘焙粮产品供应较为饱 和，产品效率开始走低。具备功效的主粮产品或成为行业新的产品趋势。功能性宠物食品并非新事物， 处方粮是最典型的功能性产品，功能粮即定位于具备一定处方粮功效但供健康宠物日常使用的产品。目 前的产品趋势来看，减肥、泌尿、肠胃、美毛与老年专用是最核心的5种功能性主粮。进口品牌(皇家、 希尔斯、冠能)在处方粮主粮类产品布局较早，已有较为成熟的产品序列，国内品牌(东方澳龙)逐步发 力，国产品牌在宠物保健品领域已有全面布局，这一 ...

Group 1 - The issuer of the bond is China National Railway Group Co., Ltd., and the total issuance scale is 10 billion yuan for the "2026 Third Phase China Railway Construction Bond" [4][29] - The bond is divided into two types: a 10-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan and a 30-year bond with a scale of 5 billion yuan, totaling 10 billion yuan [21][29] - The bonds will be issued at a fixed interest rate, with the 10-year bond's interest rate being the Shibor benchmark rate plus a basic spread ranging from -0.3% to 0.7%, and the 30-year bond's interest rate ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% [21][29] Group 2 - The main underwriter for this bond issuance is Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., which is responsible for managing the underwriting team and coordinating the issuance process [5][31] - The bonds will be publicly issued to institutional investors through a bidding system on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [22][31] - The bonds will be registered and held by the Shenzhen branch of the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation and the Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. [24][30] Group 3 - The bonds will have a maturity date of February 5, 2036, for the 10-year bond and February 5, 2056, for the 30-year bond [27] - The bonds will be issued at par value of 100 yuan, with a minimum subscription unit of 10 million yuan [24][29] - The bonds will be guaranteed by the Railway Construction Fund, providing an irrevocable joint liability guarantee [29]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for Chinese airlines in 2025 indicates a trend of "significantly reduced losses, some airlines turning profitable, and accelerated profit differentiation" [2][3]. Group 1: Annual Performance Forecast - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines have turned profitable, contributing significantly to the sector's profit recovery, while Air China and China Eastern Airlines remain in the loss zone, with China Eastern's losses narrowing [1][2]. - China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines are the core contributors to profit recovery, while Huaxia Airlines continues to show growth, reflecting the relative advantages of regional routes and operational flexibility [2][3]. Group 2: Quarterly Performance Insights - In Q4 2025, the industry remains under pressure with losses prevailing, but most airlines show significant year-on-year improvements, indicating a continued recovery trend despite seasonal profitability pressures [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Demand remains a key variable for ticket price recovery and profit improvement, with domestic passenger volume expected to grow moderately due to normalized consumer travel and enhanced leisure tourism [4]. - The supply constraints and cost pressures are likely to amplify profit elasticity, with slow aircraft deliveries maintaining capacity control and policies aimed at reducing disorderly competition stabilizing revenue quality [4]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - The top picks include Hainan Airlines (600221.SH) and Huaxia Airlines (002928.SZ), with a focus on China National Aviation (601111.SH, 00753), Juneyao Airlines (603885.SH), and Spring Airlines (601021.SH) [5].

Group 1: Precious Metals and Market Trends - The precious metals sector is showing increasing speculative attributes, warranting caution [2] - The current market is experiencing a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks and from themes to quality [2] - The overall trend indicates a potential for profit margin recovery in cyclical sectors, driven by a shift in Chinese policy from expansion to quality improvement [2] Group 2: AI and Technology Opportunities - There is a focus on AI applications and energy storage as key growth areas, with expectations for recovery in lithium battery materials and storage sectors [3] - The AI industry remains a long-term focus, with significant policy support and market optimism surrounding its applications [5] - The technology theme, including AI applications and structural recovery opportunities, is highlighted as a key area for investment [7] Group 3: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by ample liquidity and positive domestic fundamentals [5] - High elasticity growth themes may still perform well after a phase of profit-taking, with potential for further gains in February [4] - Sector rotation is anticipated to be a dominant theme leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on structural opportunities [9] Group 4: Commodity Recommendations - A recommendation has been made to adjust the order of investment focus to include crude oil, copper, aluminum, tin, and lithium, reflecting a shift towards industrial pricing [8] - The emphasis on physical assets is expected to strengthen, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and consumer goods benefiting from domestic recovery [8] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with expectations for continued support from domestic policies and liquidity [5][6] - The potential for structural recovery in manufacturing and resource sectors is noted, with clear paths for profit recovery [9] - The upcoming credit and inflation data in January may provide additional positive signals for the market [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 摘要 第一，2026年1月30日，特朗普宣布他将提名沃什担任下届美联储主席，接替鲍威尔，鲍威尔作为主席 的任期将于 5 月届满。特朗普在声明中回顾了沃什的职业背景，并声称沃什将成为"史上最伟大的美联 储主席之一"（he will go down as one of the great Fed chairmen），且"绝不会让人失望"（he will never let you down）。提名仍需参议院银行委员会听证及全体投票确认。 第二，沃什的履历组合非常多样化，他同时具备华尔街并购、白宫经济政策工作以及美联储危机应对的 实操经验。他曾在1995年-2002年担任摩根士丹利执行董事负责并购业务，熟悉华尔街运作机制；在 2002-2006白宫经济政策特别助理、国家经济委员会执行秘书。在2006年至2011年担任美联储理事。在 2008年全球金融危机期间，他担任美联储与华尔街之间的首席联络人，并且是G20代表。2011年，他因 反对第二轮量化宽松（QE2）而辞职，认为这种大规模买入债券的行为会扭曲市场，并可能导致未来严 重的通胀和财政纪律 ...