业绩预测方面，浙商证券（601878）指出，市场活跃度提升，25Q3券商利润或延续高增，市场活跃度 持续提升，股市上涨可观，预计在经纪、投资及信用业务的驱动下，证券行业业绩继续亮眼，预计 2025Q3累计，上市券商营收同比增长42.4%，净利润同比增长62.8%。该行预计权益投资收益将成为券 商总体投资业绩的胜负手，在债市波动背景下，权益投资受益于股市上行，驱动券商总体投资业绩继续 保持快增，预计证券行业2025Q3累计，投资业务收入同比增长35%。 中资券商股普涨，截至发稿，广发证券（000776）(01776)涨4.05%，报21.08港元；国联民生（601456） (01456)涨1.93%，报6.34港元；招商证券（600999）(06099)涨1.34%，报16.59港元；华泰证券 （601688）(06886)涨0.78%，报20.08港元。 消息面上，2025年以来，券商发债融资热情显著攀升。数据显示，截至10月9日，已有71家券商合计发 行了672只债券，合计募资金额达1.27万亿元，同比增长80.22%。具体来看，年内券商合计已发行证券 公司债359只，募资金额为7502.5亿元。从单家公司 ...

消息面上，2025年以来，券商发债融资热情显著攀升。数据显示，截至10月9日，已有71家券商合计发 行了672只债券，合计募资金额达1.27万亿元，同比增长80.22%。具体来看，年内券商合计已发行证券 公司债359只，募资金额为7502.5亿元。从单家公司发债规模来看，年内有33家券商发债规模均超100亿 元，头部券商整体上居于前列。招商证券分析师表示，在利率中枢走低的背景下，债券融资成为券商扩 表的主要渠道，相关募集资金主要用于置换存量债务、降低资金成本，或补充营运资金以应对潜在行 情。 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股普涨，截至发稿，广发证券(01776)涨4.05%，报21.08港元；国联民生 (01456)涨1.93%，报6.34港元；招商证券(06099)涨1.34%，报16.59港元；华泰证券(06886)涨0.78%，报 20.08港元。 业绩预测方面，浙商证券指出，市场活跃度提升，25Q3券商利润或延续高增，市场活跃度持续提升， 股市上涨可观，预计在经纪、投资及信用业务的驱动下，证券行业业绩继续亮眼，预计2025Q3累计， 上市券商营收同比增长42.4%，净利润同比增长62.8%。该行预计权益 ...

发债规模同比增长逾八成 除定增外，发行债券融资也是券商重要的资本补充方式。今年以来，券商发债融资热情显著攀升。数据显示，截至10月9 日，已有71家券商合计发行了672只债券，合计募资金额达1.27万亿元，同比增长80.22%。此外，还有多笔券商大额债券正 在"路上"，例如，10月9日晚间，兴业证券披露，该公司获批发行不超过200亿元公司债。 具体来看，年内券商合计已发行证券公司债359只，募资金额为7502.5亿元；发行证券公司次级债73只，募资金额为 1129.39亿元；发行证券公司短期融资券240只，募资金额为4117.7亿元。 今年以来，资本市场向好态势显著，作为市场中的核心中介机构，券商踊跃进行资本补充以把握发展机遇。一方面，券商 积极推进定增，年内多家券商定增事项落地，同时，南京证券等券商的定增事项不断迎来新进展；另一方面，券商发债热情升 温，截至10月9日，年内券商发债募资规模达1.27万亿元，同比增长80.22%。 定增新进展不断 定增是上市券商实施再融资的一种重要方式。今年以来，多家上市券商的定增事项迎来新进展。9月29日，南京证券发布 公告称，该公司收到上交所出具的《关于南京证券股份有限公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of September 26, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.89 years and 2.16 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.39 years, 3.72 years, and 2.19 years respectively. The duration of bank perpetual bonds was at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.35 years, 1.85 years, 3.10 years, and 1.30 years respectively. The durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds shortened, and the securities company bonds were at a relatively low historical quantile [1][8]. - The coupon duration congestion index dropped significantly. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index declined and is currently at the 25.9% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Full - variety Duration Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, general commercial financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.89 years, 2.16 years, 4.39 years, 3.72 years, 2.19 years, 1.35 years, 1.85 years, 3.10 years, and 1.30 years respectively. Their corresponding historical quantiles since March 2021 were 78.7%, 75.3%, 97.0%, 65.5%, 71.9%, 8.0%, 23.4%, 60.0%, and 76.5% [10]. 2. Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 1.89 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds extended to 6.37 years, while that of Beijing district - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.63 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Henan prefecture - level cities and Jiangxi prefecture - level cities exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds approached the highest level since 2021 [2][15]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds slightly shortened compared to the previous week, generally staying around 2.16 years. The trading duration of the commercial retail industry extended to 2.09 years, while that of the basic chemical industry shortened to 1.19 years. The trading durations of industries such as food and beverage, coal, real estate, and building decoration were at relatively low historical quantiles, while the building materials industry was at a relatively high historical quantile [2][20]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.19 years, at the 71.9% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.39 years, at the 97% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.72 years, at the 65.5% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [2][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 60%, 23.4%, 8%, and 76.5% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds slightly shortened compared to the previous week [2][26].

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance by securities firms has significantly accelerated since July, with a total issuance of 1.14 trillion yuan in 2023, surpassing the previous year's total of 693.7 billion yuan, indicating strong capital replenishment needs in the industry [2][10]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Trends - In September alone, at least four securities firms announced new short-term financing bond issuances, totaling over 8 billion yuan, contributing to a cumulative issuance of over 110 billion yuan in the first half of September [1][9]. - The total bond issuance by securities firms from July 1 to September 17 reached approximately 543.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 47% of the annual total [2]. - As of September 17, 2023, 71 securities firms have issued bonds, with a total issuance of 1.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 64.7% [10]. Group 2: Types of Bonds and Their Purposes - Securities company bonds remain the mainstay, with 415 bonds issued totaling over 750 billion yuan, while short-term financing bonds accounted for nearly 370 billion yuan [11]. - The average coupon rate for the issued bonds is 1.89%, with a general downward trend in interest rates compared to the previous year [13][14]. - The primary purposes of the raised funds include liquidity support and refinancing existing debts, with some firms committing to limit the use of funds for capital-consuming businesses [21][24]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The increase in bond issuance is driven by a recovery in the A-share market, which has led to a rise in margin trading balances from approximately 1.85 trillion yuan at the end of June to about 2.26 trillion yuan at the end of August, marking a 22.2% increase [9]. - The current low-interest-rate environment makes bond financing more attractive compared to equity financing, providing larger funding support while avoiding equity dilution [25]. - If the A-share market remains active, the trend of bond issuance by securities firms is expected to continue in the near future [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in bond issuance by securities firms in China, with a total of 1.12 trillion yuan raised as of September 11, 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 66.18% [1][2] - A total of 71 securities firms have issued 600 bonds this year, with the number of bonds increasing by 53.06% compared to the previous year [2] - The primary reasons for the surge in bond issuance include business expansion needs driven by a favorable A-share market and intensified competition among securities firms [2][3] Group 2 - The funds raised through bond issuance are primarily used for repaying maturing debts, supplementing liquidity, and meeting operational needs [3] - Securities firms have actively issued technology innovation bonds, with 49 such bonds issued this year, raising a total of 476.7 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - The low interest rate environment has reduced financing costs for securities firms, making bond issuance more attractive compared to other financing methods [4] - The average interest rates for various types of bonds issued this year have decreased compared to the same period last year, with securities company bonds averaging 1.89% and short-term financing bonds at 1.77% [4] Group 4 - Securities firms have also utilized overseas channels for financing, issuing 22 bonds this year and raising a total of 32.08 million USD, which is a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [5] - The ability to issue bonds in the international market is primarily limited to leading securities firms due to higher requirements for scale and overall strength [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the credit bond industry Core Insights - The report discusses the challenges of achieving excess returns in credit bond investments due to a low interest rate and low credit spread environment, emphasizing the need for effective investment strategies [5] - It outlines a framework for analyzing credit bonds, including market segmentation, historical performance during "asset scarcity" phases, and a five-factor model for credit spreads [5][7] - The report highlights the rapid expansion of the Chinese credit bond market, with total outstanding credit bonds reaching CNY 46.99 trillion by July 2025, of which non-financial credit bonds account for CNY 31.96 trillion [13][14] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Chinese Credit Bond Market - The credit bond market in China has expanded significantly since 2009, with a notable increase in the variety of products available [11][13] - As of July 2025, the total balance of credit bonds is CNY 46.99 trillion, with non-financial credit bonds making up 68% of this total [13][14] 2. Analysis Framework for Credit Bond "Asset Scarcity" - The report analyzes four phases of "asset scarcity" since 2015, identifying key characteristics and predictive indicators for investors [5][7] 3. Historical Review of Credit Spreads - A historical review of credit spreads since 2008 reveals significant fluctuations, with a focus on the factors influencing these changes [5][7] 4. Research Framework for Credit Spreads - The report presents a five-factor model for analyzing credit spreads, noting that while the factors remain the same, the focus has shifted in the current market context [5][7] 5. Common Investment Strategies in the Credit Bond Market - The report discusses various investment strategies, including duration management, credit selection, leverage operations, and tactical trading, which are crucial for navigating the current low spread environment [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of August 17, the weighted average trading terms of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 2.13 years and 2.63 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading terms of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.59 years, 3.72 years, and 4.05 years respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.53 years, 2.13 years, 3.22 years, and 1.20 years respectively, with securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds at relatively low historical percentiles [2][9]. - The coupon duration congestion index slightly declined. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index has been falling. This week, it decreased slightly compared to last week and is currently at the 12.20% level since March 2021 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 All - Variety Term Overview - Urban investment bonds: The weighted average trading term hovered around 2.13 years. The duration of Sichuan provincial urban investment bonds extended to 5.36 years, while the trading duration of Guangdong district - county - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.50 years. The historical percentiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Sichuan provincial, Jiangsu district - county - level, Chongqing district - county - level, and Fujian district - county - level have exceeded 90%, and the duration of Henan prefecture - level city urban investment bonds is approaching the highest level since 2021 [3][15]. - Industrial bonds: The weighted average trading term has slightly extended compared to last week, generally around 2.63 years. The trading duration of the pharmaceutical and biological industry shortened to 1.05 years, while that of the building materials industry extended to 2.49 years. The trading duration of the food materials industry is at a relatively low historical percentile, and industries such as public utilities and building materials are at historical percentiles above 90% [3][20]. - Commercial bank bonds: The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 4.05 years, at the 99.5% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.59 years, at the 99.1% historical percentile, lower than the level of the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds extended to 3.72 years, at the 66.3% historical percentile, higher than the level of the same period last year [3][22]. - Other financial bonds: In terms of the weighted average trading term, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at historical percentiles of 65.3%, 48%, 31%, and 67.6% respectively. The duration of insurance company bonds has slightly extended compared to last week, while the durations of the others have slightly shortened [3][25]. 3.2 Variety Microscope - Information in this part is mainly included in the "All - Variety Term Overview" above, with detailed data and analysis of different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, commercial bank bonds, and other financial bonds. For example, specific data on the durations and historical percentiles of bonds in different regions and industries are provided [3][15][20].

Quantitative Credit Strategy - As of August 1, the secondary capital bond heavy strategy has rapidly recovered, with the weekly average yield of the credit style secondary bond heavy portfolio rising nearly 87 basis points, reaching the highest absolute return since April [2][12] - The secondary bond heavy and long-term industrial strategies showed significant recovery compared to other portfolios, with weekly returns of 0.31% and 0.51%, respectively, compensating for over 65% of the losses from the previous week [2][12] - Financial bond duration strategies generally outperformed, with secondary bonds, perpetual bonds, and brokerage bond duration portfolios beating the mid-to-long-term benchmark by approximately 9.2 basis points, 8.7 basis points, and 10.4 basis points, respectively [2][12] Duration Tracking of Varieties - The transaction duration of secondary capital bonds has risen to 4.8 years as of August 3, with urban investment bonds and industrial bonds weighted at 2.24 years and 3.03 years, respectively, both at over 90% historical percentile levels since March 2021 [3][14] - Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 4.79 years, 4.02 years, and 2.91 years, respectively, with bank perpetual bonds at a relatively low historical level [3][14] - For other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, subordinated securities bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds are 1.78 years, 2.37 years, 3.00 years, and 1.61 years, respectively, with securities company bonds and subordinated securities bonds at low historical percentiles [3][14] Yield Heat Map of Coupon Assets - As of August 4, the yields of non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally declined, with yields for 1-year and 2-3 year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds down by 5.8 basis points and 6.7 basis points, respectively [4][19] - Real estate bonds also saw a decline in yields, with the yield drop for 3-year private enterprise public non-perpetual bonds exceeding 6 basis points [4][19] - In the financial bond sector, bank subordinated bonds are favored, particularly in the short end, with yields for 1-year shares and 1-2 year city commercial bank secondary capital bonds down by 11.5 basis points and 8.8 basis points, respectively [4][19] Long-term Credit Bond Insights - The issuance scale of long-term credit new bonds totaled 13.42 billion, with supply returning to a low level, possibly due to rising issuance costs, as long-term bond issuers await favorable issuance windows [5][21] - Correspondingly, the average issuance rate of long-term credit new bonds continued to rise, with the issuance rate of long-term urban investment bonds reaching over the 50th percentile for the first time in 24 years [5][21] Local Government Bond Supply and Trading Tracking - The average issuance rate of local bonds has marginally increased, with the yield spreads for 30-year, 20-year, and 10-year local bonds widening to 14 basis points, 12 basis points, and 11 basis points, respectively, compared to the same-term government bonds [6][22]

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance by securities firms has become a significant method for enhancing capital strength, with a notable increase in issuance scale and frequency in 2023 [1][2][3] Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - As of August 5, 2023, securities firms have issued nearly 770 billion yuan in bonds, representing a year-on-year growth of over 32% [1] - A total of 446 bonds have been issued by securities firms this year, marking a 35.15% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The breakdown of bond issuance includes 239 securities company bonds totaling 439.64 billion yuan, 55 subordinated bonds totaling 80.279 billion yuan, and 152 short-term financing bonds totaling 250.07 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Firm Performance - By August 5, 2023, 70 securities firms have issued bonds, with 24 firms exceeding 10 billion yuan in issuance [2] - China Galaxy leads in bond issuance with 24 bonds totaling 69.9 billion yuan, followed by Huatai Securities at 52.9 billion yuan, and several others including GF Securities and Guotai Junan with issuance scales above 39.3 billion yuan [2] - The primary purposes for bond issuance include repaying maturing bonds, adjusting debt structure, supplementing liquidity, and supporting business development [2] Group 3: Market Conditions and Trends - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to heightened capital market activity, leading to greater funding needs for securities firms' intermediary, proprietary, and investment banking businesses [3] - A favorable monetary supply and declining market interest rates have reduced the cost of bond financing [3] - The launch of a "technology board" in the bond market is expected to create multiple business opportunities for securities firms, further encouraging bond issuance [3] Group 4: Cost and Financing Advantages - The average coupon rate for securities company bonds issued this year is 1.97%, down from 2.52% in the previous year, while the average rate for short-term financing bonds is 1.8%, down from 2.13% [3] - Compared to other financing methods, bond financing offers advantages such as larger scale, controllable costs, flexible structure, and stability in company control, making it suitable for rapid capital replenishment during business expansion [3] - Firms are advised to balance debt levels with profitability and consider a diversified financing approach to avoid over-reliance on a single channel [3]