Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China travel retail business for up to $395 million (approximately RMB 2.75 billion) is expected to enhance the company's coverage of high-end consumer segments and strengthen its competitive advantage in the Greater China region [2][3] - The strategic partnership with LVMH aims to expand the company's channel advantages through collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3] Financial Projections - The audited revenue and net profit for DFS Greater China are projected to be RMB 4.149 billion and RMB 128 million for 2024, respectively, and RMB 2.754 billion and RMB 133 million for the first nine months of 2025 [4] - The adjusted EPS forecasts for the company are set at RMB 1.89, RMB 2.64, and RMB 3.34 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 50.84, 36.39, and 28.79 [4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -16.38% for 2024 and -3.08% for 2025, followed by a recovery of 27.95% in 2026 and 15.46% in 2027 [8]

Core Viewpoint - China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (China Duty Free) has announced a partnership with LVMH and DFS Group to acquire DFS's travel retail business in Hong Kong and Macau for up to $395 million, enhancing its market presence in the Greater China region [2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Duty Free will acquire 100% of DFS Cotai Limitada and all operational assets of DFS stores in Hong Kong and Macau, excluding the City of Dreams store in Macau [3]. - The acquisition includes exclusive rights to a series of brands and intellectual properties under DFS in the Greater China region [2]. - LVMH and Robert Miller will subscribe to new H-shares issued by China Duty Free as part of the transaction, which will be a small portion of the proceeds from the sale [3]. Group 2: Strategic Cooperation - A strategic cooperation memorandum has been signed between China Duty Free and LVMH to establish a partnership in retail sectors aligned with their strategic interests [5]. - This collaboration aims to leverage the strengths of both companies to deepen cooperation in the Greater China region and achieve mutual benefits [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Context - DFS reported a revenue of 2.754 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan from its Hong Kong and Macau operations in the first three quarters of the 2025 fiscal year [6]. - China Duty Free's revenue for the same period was 39.86 billion yuan, a decline of 7.34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 4.42 billion yuan, down 18.89% [6]. - The luxury goods market is projected to recover, with a forecasted growth of 3% to 5% in 2026, following a slight decline in 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% in those years [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a growth of 35.0% and 15.0% respectively [4][12]. - The company's net asset return rate is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and assets from two core stores in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition will be funded entirely by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing business operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The duty-free sales in Hainan for October-November 2025 reached 4.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, benefiting from a low base and new policies [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Hainan's duty-free sales in October-November 2025 were approximately 4.8 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, driven by a low base in 2024 and new duty-free policies [1] - In the first week following the closure of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, duty-free shopping amounted to about 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.9%, supported by government and operator subsidies [1] - The expected year-on-year growth rate for China Duty Free Group's (CDFG) Hainan business in Q4 is projected to be between 20% and 25% [1] Group 2: Airport and Online Sales - In October-November, the number of inbound and outbound passengers at Shanghai Airport reached 6.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 22%, while Beijing Capital Airport saw 3 million passengers, up 18% year-on-year, indicating potential growth in offline duty-free sales [2] - However, online sales for CDFG's Day Sun brand have significantly declined due to compliance issues and a shift in business model from general trade to cross-border e-commerce, leading to higher product pricing [2] - The online business's share is expected to decrease substantially due to these challenges [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - CDFG's Q4 revenue is expected to be 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding non-recurring gains and losses) of 900 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 155% [2] - The gross margin for Q4 is anticipated to decline by 2 percentage points, influenced by changes in product mix and the impact of low-margin online sales [2] - For 2025 and 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.85 billion yuan and 4.99 billion yuan, respectively, with a strong recommendation for investment [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) is accelerating its international expansion by acquiring DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million, which includes assets and equity stakes in DFS Singapore and DFS Hong Kong [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - CDFG's wholly-owned subsidiary, CDF International Co., Ltd., signed a framework agreement to acquire DFS's travel retail business, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and related assets from DFS Hong Kong [1]. - The acquisition will be financed through cash and is expected to close in approximately two months, pending customary closing conditions [2]. - Following the acquisition, CDFG will issue new H-shares to Delphine SAS and Shoppers Holdings HK at a price of HKD 77.21 per share, totaling up to 7,330,100 shares and 4,637,400 shares, respectively [2]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The transaction aims to enhance CDFG's competitiveness in the overseas travel retail market and is seen as a critical step in its internationalization strategy [2][3]. - CDFG has also signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH to collaborate in retail areas that align with both parties' strategic interests, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [2]. Group 3: Market Context - DFS, established in 1960, is a prominent high-end travel retailer with a strong presence in major airports and city centers globally, particularly in Hong Kong and Macau [5]. - In 2024, DFS is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 4.149 billion and a net profit of CNY 128 million, with revenues of CNY 2.754 billion and a net profit of CNY 133 million reported for the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - The acquisition will enable CDFG to rapidly build a duty-free network in Greater China, complementing its existing channels [5]. Group 4: Market Trends - Since the third quarter of last year, the demand for duty-free shopping in Hainan has rebounded, with a reported shopping amount of CNY 5.02 billion in the first month of the new duty-free policy, marking a 46.8% year-on-year increase [6]. - The number of shoppers in Hainan reached 772,000, reflecting a 29.7% year-on-year growth [6]. - CDFG is exploring new growth avenues as the Hainan market is no longer dominated solely by the company, with city and airport duty-free markets and overseas markets being key areas of focus [6].

Group 1 - The tourism retail sector increased by 2.88% on January 20, with China Duty Free Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4113.65, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14155.63, down 0.97% [1] - China Duty Free Group's stock closed at 96.09, reflecting a 2.88% increase, with a trading volume of 849,000 shares and a transaction value of 82.39 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The tourism retail sector saw a net inflow of 394 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 130 million yuan [1] - The breakdown of fund flows indicates that institutional investors had a net inflow of 394 million yuan, while speculative funds had a net outflow of 264 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs held an investor conference call discussing the latest trends and growth dynamics in Hainan's duty-free sales, with insights from a tourism retail expert [1] - The expert expressed cautious optimism for Hainan's duty-free sales growth by 2026, anticipating sustained healthy growth in inbound tourism and increased consumption of high-priced items like clothing and electronics [1] - The expert noted that competition among existing duty-free operators remains relatively stable, with China Duty Free Group expected to maintain a market share of 70% to 80% [1] Group 2 - The expert indicated that the issuance of consumption vouchers may slow down, as evidenced by a recent deceleration in distribution speed in Sanya [1] - The expert does not expect last year's policy relaxations to significantly boost sales among Hainan residents, as they contributed only 11 million RMB to sales, accounting for less than 1% [1] - China Duty Free Group continues to succeed by focusing on product variety and inventory levels, offering more bundled packages rather than aggressive price discounts [2]

Group 1 - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) announced the acquisition of DFS Group's travel retail business in Greater China for up to $395 million in cash [2] - DFS Group is a leading luxury travel retailer established in 1960, with stores located in major airports and city centers globally [4] - CDFG is a large publicly listed company controlled by China Tourism Group, operating around 200 duty-free stores in over 100 cities in China and abroad [4] Group 2 - LVMH Group and Robert Miller's family will participate in CDFG's capital increase by subscribing to newly issued H-shares in Hong Kong, with the subscription amount being part of the sale consideration [4] - CDFG plans to establish a cooperative relationship with LVMH in retail sectors aligned with their strategies, focusing on product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is cautious optimism regarding the growth of Hainan's duty-free sales, driven by healthy inbound tourism and increased consumption of high-priced items [1] - The expert predicts that inbound tourism will continue to grow, with an increase in spending on high-ticket items such as clothing and more 3C products [1] - The expert expresses concern that the distribution of consumption vouchers may slow down, as evidenced by recent trends in Sanya [1] Group 2 - The competitive landscape remains relatively stable, with China Duty Free Group (601888) expected to maintain a market share of 70% to 80% [1] - The expert believes that new entrants to the duty-free market are unlikely in the next 2 to 3 years, and an independent tariff system will help attract more investment over time [1] - China Duty Free Group continues to win through product variety and inventory, offering more bundled packages rather than aggressive price discounts [2] - Goldman Sachs will focus on the profit margin trends in China Duty Free Group's upcoming preliminary results for Q4 2024 to assess their impact on overall profitability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 116.10 CNY [5][18]. Core Insights - The acquisition of DFS's Greater China business is expected to significantly enhance the company's premium capability and international influence in the global luxury goods sector, positioning it as a competitive player in tourism retail [2][3]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.947 billion CNY, 5.328 billion CNY, and 6.126 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.91 CNY, 2.58 CNY, and 2.96 CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 67.54 billion CNY, with a decrease to 56.47 billion CNY in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery to 68.96 billion CNY in 2026 and 87.76 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 28.7% and 27.3% respectively [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline to 4.267 billion CNY in 2024, before increasing to 5.328 billion CNY in 2026 and 6.126 billion CNY in 2027, indicating a recovery trend [4][12]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 7.0% in 2025 to 9.8% in 2027 [4][12]. Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire DFS's Greater China tourism retail business for up to 395 million USD, which includes 100% equity of DFS Cotai Limitada and key assets in Hong Kong [3][12]. - The acquisition is fully funded by the company's own capital, ensuring that existing operations remain unaffected [3][12]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with LVMH, aiming for deep collaboration in product sales, store openings, brand promotion, cultural exchange, tourism services, and customer experience [3][12].