Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perplexing logistics route taken by a package of lamb from Lanzhou to Chengdu, which first diverted to Nanjing, highlighting inefficiencies in modern logistics despite advanced technology [1][3]. Group 1: Logistics Operations - The package's journey involved a total distance of approximately 2800 kilometers instead of the direct 660 kilometers, raising questions about the efficiency of logistics operations [1][3]. - The response from EMS indicated that this routing is standard practice, as Nanjing serves as a central hub for their national air network [4][5]. - Many logistics companies, including SF Express, also utilize similar routing strategies, consolidating packages at central hubs before final delivery [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Rationale - The "hub-and-spoke" model is employed to achieve economies of scale and reduce costs, which may appear inefficient to consumers but is a calculated decision from a logistics perspective [7][8]. - The cost of shipping multiple packages together significantly reduces the average cost per item, demonstrating the financial logic behind the routing choices [9][10]. Group 3: Hub Selection and Strategy - Major logistics companies have strategically chosen locations for their hubs based on factors like cargo flow, land costs, and transportation infrastructure, with a focus on new first-tier cities and key economic regions [11][12]. - The government's logistics hub planning aligns with the choices made by companies, creating a supportive environment for efficient logistics operations [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The integration of national logistics networks with corporate logistics systems is expected to enhance efficiency, allowing for smarter routing decisions that balance cost, speed, and reliability [14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

第 1 頁 共 11 頁 v 1.1.1 | 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 截至月份: 2025年11月30日 狀態: 新提交 | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 | USD | | 0.0001 USD | | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | U ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen a significant increase in volume, surpassing 180 billion packages in 2023, indicating rapid growth and a shift in operational focus from quantity to quality and service differentiation [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Growth and Changes - The express delivery volume in China has reached over 180 billion packages in 2023, marking a substantial increase from previous years [1] - The industry is transitioning from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on healthier profit margins and differentiated services [2][4] - Companies are no longer just competing on the number of packages delivered but are emphasizing smarter operations and enhanced service quality [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Pricing Strategies - The first half of 2023 saw a decline in single-package revenue for major companies due to intense price competition, with significant drops in cash flow for companies like Shentong Express and Yunda [2] - A policy shift initiated in July 2023 led to price increases across various regions, with companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express reporting a rise in single-package revenue in October [2][4] - The industry is witnessing a recovery in pricing, with companies focusing on improving service quality and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [3][5] Group 3: Service Differentiation and Quality Focus - The competition is evolving towards service quality, with companies like Zhongtong Express and Shunfeng Express emphasizing personalized services and comprehensive logistics solutions [4][5] - Shunfeng Express is focusing on high-end e-commerce markets and enhancing its service capabilities to drive revenue growth [5][6] - Companies are investing in technology and operational improvements to boost service quality and customer experience [7][8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - Technology is playing a crucial role in enhancing operational efficiency, with the adoption of AI and robotics across the logistics chain [7][8] - Innovations such as automated sorting systems and delivery drones are being integrated into the logistics process, significantly reducing operational costs [7] - Companies are also implementing digital solutions to improve management and decision-making processes within their networks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

成本效率持续提升，未来降本空间或将收窄。25Q3 单票成本为0.91元，同比+0.09 元，主要受服务直客 客户增长影响。其中，单票运输成本同比下降11.5%至0.34 元，主要得益于规模经济改善和更高效路线 规划所带来的转载率提升；分拣成本同比下降1.9%至0.25 元，主要得益于自动化设备投入带来的效益 提升。随着业务量增速放缓带来带来的规模经济收缩，我们预计Q4 单票运输和分拣成本将保持下降趋 势但降幅收窄，但成本效率依旧保持行业领先地位。 投资要点： 投资建议：我们预计，2025-2027 年中通快递归母净利润分别为95.65/106.33/119.29 亿元，对应EPS 为 11.89/13.22/14.83 元。预测港元/人民币汇率为0.91，2025 年目标P/E 15x，给予公司目标价195.99港元， 维持"增持"评级。 25Q3 件量增速回落，反内卷带动盈利改善。中通25Q3 营收118.6亿元，同增11.1%；总业务量达95.7 亿 票，同增9.8%，增速较Q2收窄且略落后于同业；单票收入1.22 元，同比+0.02 元。我们认为，件量增长 放缓是Q3 淡季叠加价格回升导致轻小件及低价件 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with the volume expected to exceed 1.2 billion packages in 2023, 1.5 billion in 2024, and 1.8 billion in 2025, indicating a robust upward trend in logistics demand [1] Group 1: Technological Advancements - The introduction of unmanned delivery models is revolutionizing logistics, as seen with the 1.8 billionth package being delivered using this method [2] - Automation in warehouses and sorting centers is enhancing efficiency, with AI systems significantly improving sorting accuracy and speed [3][5] - The integration of new technologies in logistics, such as automated sorting centers and unmanned vehicles, is creating a world-leading intelligent logistics network [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector is supporting a 6.3% growth in online retail sales of physical goods, driven by policies promoting the replacement of old goods with new ones [6][7] - The expansion of logistics services into various consumer scenarios, such as high-speed rail stations and tourist attractions, is amplifying the scale effects within the industry [7] - The development of new logistics models, including factory logistics and international supply chains, is enhancing the integration of logistics with production and consumption [9] Group 3: Regional Development - The logistics system is improving in rural areas, with a notable increase in express delivery services, leading to a 21.5% growth in agricultural product shipments [10] - The expansion of delivery networks into western regions is facilitating smoother flow of goods, enhancing market access for local products [11] - The establishment of standardized distribution centers in the central and western regions is promoting balanced regional development, with some areas seeing over 30% growth in express delivery volume [12]

【深圳商报讯】（记者 肖晗）中通快递（HK02057/ZTO）日前公告称，旗下全资子公司中通航空将以 1.78亿元人民币收购浙江星联航空货运有限公司，此举旨在整合航空物流资源，提升集团综合竞争力。 中通方面表示，此次收购将提升集团的端到端境内外航空物流能力，并将增强集团在航空货运服务领域 的整体竞争力。鉴于浙江星联的稳定运营及业绩盈利，收购预期将增厚集团的业绩并提升对股东的回 报。 据中通快递公告，11月28日，中通航空与中通云冷及浙江星联签订股权转让协议，收购浙江星联100% 股权，共支付人民币1.78亿元。其中首付款为人民币1亿元，尾款为人民币7800万元，均在先决条件达 成后的10个和15个营业日内支付。 浙江星联成立于2018年，注册资本为人民币1.6亿元，主营航空货运服务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is intensifying its investment in air freight services through the acquisition of Zhejiang Xinglian, enhancing its logistics capabilities and overall competitiveness in the air freight sector [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - ZTO Express announced the acquisition of 100% equity in Zhejiang Xinglian for RMB 178 million, with the transaction expected to be completed by November 28, 2025 [1]. - Zhejiang Xinglian, established in 2018, primarily engages in air freight services, and has shown stable profitability with pre-tax net profits of RMB 6.213 million and RMB 6.655 million for 2023 and 2024, respectively [2]. - The acquisition is classified as a related party transaction, but it is exempt from independent shareholder approval due to its percentage being between 0.1% and 5% [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - ZTO Express reported revenues of RMB 35.38 billion, RMB 38.42 billion, and RMB 44.28 billion for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.35%, 8.60%, and 15.26% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years was RMB 6.809 billion, RMB 8.749 billion, and RMB 8.817 billion, reflecting growth rates of 43.20%, 28.49%, and 0.78% [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenues of RMB 34.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.29%, and a net profit of RMB 6.455 billion, growing by 0.33% [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The air freight market is experiencing significant growth, with the Civil Aviation Administration of China reporting a 22.1% year-on-year increase in cargo and mail transport volume, reaching 8.9816 million tons in 2024 [7]. - Other major players in the express delivery sector, such as SF Express, YTO Express, and JD Logistics, have also entered the air freight market, indicating a competitive landscape [5][6]. - The government has initiated policies to support the development of the air logistics sector, including the "14th Five-Year" plan for aviation logistics, which aims to create a high-quality and efficient air logistics system [6].

Summary of ZTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ZTO Express - **Market Position**: Largest express parcel provider in China with approximately 20% market share as of 3Q25, most profitable among competitors including YTO, STO, Yunda, and J&T [19][22][39] Key Industry Insights - **Anti-involution Policy**: This policy is reshaping the competitive landscape, shifting focus from volume-driven growth to quality and profitability. It has led to a reduction in low-value parcels, benefiting ZTO as it captures market share [7][8][14][19] - **Volume Growth**: ZTO's volume growth outpaced the industry, with increases of approximately 12% and 9% year-over-year in October and November, respectively, compared to the sector's 7% and 4-5% [4][8][14][29] Financial Performance and Projections - **Price Target Increase**: DCF-based price targets raised to US$25.00/Rmb197.00 for US ADR/H share following a strong 3Q25 performance and positive updates from the JPM Fireside Chat [1][5][28] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth of 10.8% for FY25, with further growth expected in subsequent years [18][25] - **Margin Outlook**: Improved margin outlook anticipated, with expectations for margin expansion to accelerate in FY26 due to a healthier parcel mix and ongoing cost discipline [15][30] Strategic Focus - **Capital Management**: Emphasis on disciplined capital management, with lower capex expected as major infrastructure investments are completed. FY25 capex projected at Rmb5.5-6 billion [11][30] - **Shareholder Returns**: Commitment to dividends and buybacks, with a focus on sustainable growth and long-term value creation [9][11][30] - **Cost Optimization**: Ongoing investments in automation and digitalization to enhance cost efficiency and support scalable growth [11][30] Competitive Advantages - **Service Quality**: ZTO's superior service quality and efficient logistics infrastructure provide a competitive edge, particularly in e-commerce logistics and partnerships with platforms like Alibaba and Pinduoduo [10][11][19] - **Market Positioning**: ZTO is well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation, with a strategy that balances market share growth with profitability [6][19][39] Risks and Challenges - **Macroeconomic Environment**: Potential risks include a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic environment and rising oil prices, which could impact volume projections and operational costs [23][41] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: ZTO Express is positioned to capitalize on the current industry transformation driven by regulatory changes, with a strong focus on quality-driven growth and profitability. The company remains a top pick within the logistics space for the next 3-6 months [1][6][28]