浙商证券发布研报称，25Q3公司快递量完成95.7亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为19.4%。散件业务量增 长势头依然强劲，同比增幅近50%，持续为利润带来积极贡献。基于全年预测数据及根据目前的市场和 运营情况，公司对年度指引作出调整，2025年的包裹量预计将介于382亿至387亿件之间，同比增长 12.3%至13.8%。核心单票方面，25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元；环比25Q2提升0.05 元。国庆节后第二轮涨价开启，行业旺季到来，涨价具备一定持续性，对快递价格形成支撑。 消息面上，近日，中通快递-W发布2025年三季度业绩，里昂指出，中通快递-W第三季收入及经调整净 利润分别同比增长11%及7%，每单经调整净利润为约0.27元人民币，较第二季的0.21元人民币改善，看 好其核心每单成本因新转运中心投产仅上升0.02元人民币。里昂表示，行业反内卷政策预期将持续实 施，相信监管机构会继续透过设定价格下限，来严格遏止价格恶性竞争。考虑到中通客户结构较同业 好，里昂预期该公司明年市场份额可回升，将2025及2026年净利润预测轻微上调2%。 智通财经APP获悉，中通快递-W(02057) ...

浙商证券（601878）发布研报称，上调中通快递-W(02057)至"买入"评级，第三季度业绩稳健，在"反内 卷"背景下实现量价齐升。中通作为行业龙头，未来将更加专注网络稳定，强化竞争优势，推进高数量 向高质量的转型。该行预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为96.2、110.2、120.8亿元，对应PE分别为 12.0、10.4和9.4倍。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 2025年Q3业绩调整后净利润同比+2.0% 2025Q3中通实现营业收入118.6亿元，同比+11.1%，毛利为29.6亿元，调整后净利润25.1亿元，同比 +5.0%。25Q3快递业务收入110.2亿元，同比+11.6%。该增长是由于包裹量增长9.8%及单票价格增长 1.7%带动。由直销机构产生的直客业务收入增长141.2%，这主要得益于电商退货包裹量的增加。物料 销售收入主要包括电子热敏纸面单销售收入，增长0.5%。25Q3经营活动产生的现金流为人民币32亿 元，同比基本持平，资本支出为11.9亿元。 25Q3单票调整后净利润0.26元，24Q3为0.27元;环比25Q2提升0.05元。快递反内卷背景下，第一轮涨价 已覆盖全国超90%区域 ...

网络数据 截至2025年9月30日，中通揽件/派件网点数量为31000余个，直接网络合作伙伴数量约6000余个。自有 干线车辆数量为约10000辆。分拣中心间干线运输路线为3900余条，分拣中心的数量为95个，其中91个 由本公司运营。 核心单票收入实现修复，持续推进直链实现成本效益 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，上调中通快递-W(02057)至"买入"评级，第三季度业绩稳 健，在"反内卷"背景下实现量价齐升。中通作为行业龙头，未来将更加专注网络稳定，强化竞争优势， 推进高数量向高质量的转型。该行预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为96.2、110.2、120.8亿元，对应PE 分别为12.0、10.4和9.4倍。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 2025年Q3业绩调整后净利润同比+2.0% 2025Q3中通实现营业收入118.6亿元，同比+11.1%，毛利为29.6亿元，调整后净利润25.1亿元，同比 +5.0%。25Q3快递业务收入110.2亿元，同比+11.6%。该增长是由于包裹量增长9.8%及单票价格增长 1.7%带动。由直销机构产生的直客业务收入增长141.2%，这主要得益于电商退货包裹量的增 ...

纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨2.82%，热门中概股中，文远知行收涨14.72%，小马智行涨12.51%，阿特斯 太阳能涨10.16%，大全新能源涨8.89%，万国数据涨8.38%，百度涨7.44%，B站涨6.80%，阿里巴巴涨 5.10%，网易涨4.21%，华住涨3.35%，蔚来涨3.05%，晶科能源涨2.83%，小鹏、Boss直聘、金山云、中 通快递、亚朵至多涨2.80%。 格隆汇11月25日｜美股三大指数集体收涨，道琼斯指数涨0.44%，标普500指数涨1.55%，纳斯达克综合 指数涨2.69%。大型科技股集体上涨，特斯拉、谷歌涨超6%。芯片股走强，博通股价上涨11%，创4月 份以来最大涨幅，市值增加1780亿美元；费城半导体指数涨4.6%，美光科技涨近8%，AMD涨超5%， 英伟达涨超2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 performance, showing a revenue increase but a decline in adjusted net profit, indicating mixed operational results amidst a competitive market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 34.588 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 6.818 billion yuan, down 8.1% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company generated a revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5.0% [1]. Operational Metrics - In Q3 2025, the company handled a total of 9.573 billion express packages, marking a 9.8% year-on-year increase, with a strong growth trend in scattered package business, which grew nearly 50% year-on-year [1]. - The company's market share in Q3 was approximately 19.4%, a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, maintaining the leading position in the industry [1]. Pricing and Cost Structure - The average revenue per package in Q3 2025 was 1.15 yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to industry price improvements driven by "anti-involution" measures [2]. - The cost per package in Q3 2025 was approximately 0.59 yuan, down 8.5% year-on-year, with line-haul transportation costs at 0.34 yuan (down 12.7%) and sorting costs remaining stable at 0.25 yuan [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The adjusted net profit per package in Q3 2025 was 0.262 yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year but up 25.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved profitability trends [2]. - The operating cash flow per package was 0.335 yuan, down 6.0% year-on-year, reflecting challenges in cash generation [2]. Growth Outlook - The company revised its full-year package volume growth target to 12.3% to 13.8%, down from a previous forecast of 14% to 18%, emphasizing a focus on quality and market share expansion [2]. - The company aims for sustainable growth while maintaining healthy profitability amidst evolving market dynamics [2]. Industry Trends - The express delivery industry is expected to evolve towards healthier competition due to ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, with growth potential remaining strong, particularly in the context of e-commerce expansion [3]. - The shift from quantity to quality in service delivery is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape, with a focus on improving operational efficiency and customer satisfaction [3]. Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 9.870 billion yuan, 11.273 billion yuan, and 12.526 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [3].

Investors interested in Transportation - Services stocks are likely familiar with ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) and TFI International Inc. (TFII) . But which of these two stocks presents investors with the better value opportunity right now? Let's take a closer look.There are plenty of strategies for discovering value stocks, but we have found that pairing a strong Zacks Rank with an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system produces the best returns. The Zacks Rank favors stocks w ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 物流 中通快递-W(02057) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 25Q3 调整后净利润同比+5.0%，上调至"买入"评级 ——中通快递 2025 三季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 2025 年 Q3 业绩：调整后净利润同比+2.0% 2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 118.6 亿元，同比+11.1%，毛利为 29.6 亿元，同比减 少 11.4%，调整后净利润 25.1 亿元，同比+5.0%。 ❑ 25Q3 快递业务收入 110.2 亿元，同比+11.6%。该增长是由于包裹量增长 9.8%及 单票价格增长 1.7%带动。由直销机构产生的直客业务收入增长 141.2%，这主要 得益于电商退货包裹量的增加。货运代理服务收入较 2024 年同期下降 7.4%。物 料销售收入主要包括电子热敏纸面单销售收入，增长 0.5%。25Q3 经营活动产生 的现金流为人民币 32 亿元，同比基本持平，资本支出为 11.9 亿元。 ❑ 25Q3 经营数据：市场份额有所提升，逆向件量持续高增 25Q3 公司快递量完成 95.7 亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为 19.4%。散件业务量 增长势头依 ...

首次覆盖: 同建共享，行稳致远 中通快递-W(2057) 中通快递首次覆盖报告 [Table_Industry] 运输 海 外 公 司 ( 中 国 香 港 ) 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 本报告导读： 中通快递的"同建共享"理念为加盟商网络的稳定打下了坚实的基础。稳健的盈利能 力及高效的成本管控水平，将助力公司巩固行业龙头地位。 投资要点： | 财务摘要百万人民币 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 38419 | 44281 | 47107 | 51685 | 57706 | | +/-% | 9% | 15% | 6% | 10% | 12% | | 毛利润 | 11663 | 13717 | 13571 | 14952 | 16692 | | 归母净利润 | 8749 | 8817 | 9565 | 10633 | 11929 | | +/-% | 28% | 1% | 8% | 11% | 12% | | PE | 14.96 | ...

他身穿灰色西装，左边口袋上方佩戴着一个印有 " W "字样的蓝色胸针，这是他参与设计的公司 logo 。 2005 年底， 48 岁的胡向亮加入中通北京公司的经营管理团队，干起了快递。他亲自骑车送快递， 把每个网点跑通。 做快递前，胡向亮养过蜂、开过矿、办过厂，也在乡镇企业参与过管理。他说， "三百六十行，我干 了三百行。" 江湖气的管理哲学和快递行业的实战底色在胡向亮身上共生。 61 岁这一年，胡向亮接到了集团董事 会的新任务，去做云仓，拼上中通快递"生态圈"重要的一块拼图，其他四个生态是中通快运、中通国 际、中通金融、中通商业。 2018 年，胡向亮成立中通云仓科技公司（下称中通云仓科技），从零开始，打造出一家覆盖电商、 B2B 、跨境的仓储管理、干线物流和城市配送，再横向扩张到农特流通、中药流通、直播电商运营等 多个板块的公司，成为一家全域物流供应链服务提供商。 「IPO全观察」 栏目聚焦首次公开募股公司，报道企业家创业经历与成功故事，剖析公司商业模式和 经营业绩，并揭秘VC、CVC等各方资本力量对公司的投资加持。 作者丨赵晓晓 编辑丨关雎 图 源丨 中通云仓科技 胡向亮 身上是有些江湖气的，聊到有意思 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]