Core Viewpoint - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1] - Adjusted net profit for the company was 2.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [1] - The company aims to enhance market share in 2025, despite Q1 growth being slightly below the industry average [1] Business Performance - The company maintained its business volume guidance for 2025 at 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, indicating a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1] - Single ticket revenue decreased by 0.11 yuan, primarily due to increased incremental subsidies and a decline in single ticket weight [2] - The increase in direct customer business proportion partially offset the decline in single ticket revenue [2] Cost and Expenses - The company's single ticket core cost showed a notable year-on-year decrease, with transportation costs dropping from 0.47 yuan to 0.41 yuan and sorting costs from 0.30 yuan to 0.27 yuan [2] - Total operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million yuan from 735 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to reduced sales, general, and administrative expenses [2] Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing intensified price competition, which may lead to a short-term slowdown in profit growth for the company [3] - The company is shifting back to a market share priority strategy in 2025, which is expected to impact the competitive landscape significantly [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.52 billion, 11.20 billion, and 12.64 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X [3] - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level amid price wars, indicating strong safety margins [3]

Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.99 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.8% [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 was 2.26 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year [1] Business Performance - The company's express delivery volume in Q1 was 8.54 billion pieces, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.1% with a market share of 18.9% [1] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 0.11 yuan to 1.25 yuan, a decline of 8.1%, primarily due to increased incremental subsidies and a decrease in average weight [1] - The company reported a year-on-year increase of 46% in the volume of differentiated products, including time-sensitive and customized services [1] Cost Analysis - The cost per express delivery piece remained stable at 0.94 yuan, with transportation costs decreasing by 0.06 yuan to 0.41 yuan, a decline of 12.8% [1] - Sorting costs also saw a reduction of 0.03 yuan to 0.27 yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit per express delivery piece was 0.26 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.7% [1] Future Outlook - The company maintains a business volume growth guidance of 20%-24% for 2025, aiming for high-quality growth [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 50.215 billion, 56.275 billion, and 62.163 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 13.40%, 12.07%, and 10.46% [2] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 9.535 billion, 11.107 billion, and 12.213 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.14%, 16.49%, and 9.96% [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.99 billion yuan, up 39.8% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 2.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year growth. Given the company's leading position in the industry and robust profitability, the "Buy" rating is maintained [4][16][12] - The company focused on market share growth, with a Q1 express delivery volume of 8.54 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, capturing a market share of 18.9% [13][12] - The company expects a business volume growth rate of 20%-24% for 2025, with a projected package volume of approximately 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [15][12] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 50.22 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.40%, 12.07%, and 10.46% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 9.53 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.14%, 16.49%, and 9.96% for the following years [16][17] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 11.85 yuan for 2025, increasing to 15.18 yuan by 2027 [17][16] Cost and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's core express delivery cost per piece remained stable at 0.94 yuan, with a transportation cost decrease of 0.06 yuan to 0.41 yuan, a decline of 12.8% [14][12] - The adjusted net profit per piece was 0.26 yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year [14][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7] Core Views - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 10.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.26 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year. The core express service revenue was 10.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase, driven by a 19.1% growth in package volume and a 7.8% decrease in package price [2] - The company reiterated its package volume guidance for 2025 to be between 40.8 billion and 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24% [5] - The company is focusing on enhancing cost efficiency amid intense industry price competition, with a single ticket revenue of 1.25 yuan, down 0.11 yuan year-on-year, and a single ticket transportation cost of 0.41 yuan, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have an operating revenue of 50.17 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 9.64 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5% compared to 2024. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 11.39 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.04 [9] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.36 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with capital expenditures of 1.97 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - ZTO Express reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of 37 cents per share, matching the previous year's quarter, while total revenues of $1.50 billion fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.67 billion but showed year-over-year improvement [1] Financial Performance - The core express delivery business revenue increased by 9.8% year over year, driven by a 19.1% growth in parcel volume, despite a 7.8% decrease in parcel unit price [3] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $2.3 billion, with retail volume increasing by 46% year over year [2] - Gross profit decreased by 10.4% from the year-ago quarter, with gross margin falling to 24.7% from 30.1% [4] Operational Highlights - ZTO achieved a parcel volume of 8.5 billion during the first quarter [2] - KA revenues, generated by direct sales organizations, surged by 129.3%, attributed to an increase in e-commerce return parcels [3] - Revenue from freight forwarding services declined by 11.6% year over year due to falling cross-border e-commerce pricing [3] Cash and Share Repurchase Program - As of the end of the first quarter, ZTO had cash and cash equivalents of $1.71 billion, down from $1.84 billion at the end of the previous quarter [5] - The board approved an increase in the share repurchase program to $2 billion, extending the effective period through June 30, 2025 [5][6] Guidance - ZTO reaffirms its 2025 parcel volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 20-24% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion RMB, up 39.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of asset impairment losses in the same period last year [1][2] - The company aims to increase its business volume and market share despite facing short-term pressure from price competition in the industry. The company is expected to leverage its position as an industry leader to capture market share by lowering per-package prices [1][4] - The company’s market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9%, while the average revenue per package fell by 7.8% to 1.25 RMB due to intense price competition [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express package volume of 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1][2] - The adjusted net profit per package for Q1 2025 was 0.26 RMB, down 14.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in per-package revenue [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 52.41 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.35% [10] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% decrease from previous estimates due to the competitive pricing environment [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 160.1 HKD (20.5 USD), a 19% reduction from the previous target price of 197.6 HKD (25.4 USD) [4][6] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025E, which is a discount compared to its historical average due to increased industry competition [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 1.19 yuan, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and route optimization [4] Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion parcels in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24%, which is expected to further consolidate its leading market position [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 10.324 billion, 11.655 billion, and 13.388 billion yuan, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1]. - The focus for 2025 will shift towards increasing market share, with a target business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in single-ticket revenue, dropping from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024 to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decrease in single-ticket weight [2]. - Operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 from 735 million CNY in Q1 2024, largely due to government subsidies and tax refunds [2]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a strategy shift back to prioritizing market share, which may lead to slower profit growth in the short term [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 9.52 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.42 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.90 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.68% [8]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 19.24% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.94% [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：价格战导致 收入端承压，份额增长依旧是经营重心 事件：公司发布 2025 一季报，公司单季完成业务量 85.40 亿件，同比增长 19.1%，市场份额下降 0.4pct 至 18.9%。公司调整后净利润 22.59 亿元，同比 增长 1.6%。 业务量增速回升，但略低于行业均值，25 年重点提升份额：24 年 Q1-Q4，中 通业务量增速分别为 13.9%、10.1%、15.9%和 11.0%，可以看到 24 年整体 业务量增速偏低。25 年公司将工作重心转向提升市场份额，Q1 业务量增速提 升至 19.1%，但还略低于行业增速的 21.6%，主要系低价件整体维持了较快增 长，导致行业整体增速较高。公司维持 25 年业务量 408-422 亿件，同比增长 20-24%的指引不变，按照指引，预计后续几个季度公司业务量增速较 Q1 有所 提升。 单票收入下降 0.11 元，主要系增量补贴提升：Q1 行业竞争较为激烈，导致公 司单票收入由 24Q1 的 1.36 元降至 25Q1 的 1.25 元。其中单票增量补贴增加 导致单票收入下降 0.16 元，以及单票重量下 ...