Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) has shown strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, maintaining its leading position in the logistics industry, with a focus on quality and profitability rather than just volume growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZTO Express's stock price increased by 4.12%, reaching HKD 161.9, with a trading volume of HKD 62.39 million [1] - During the "Double 11" period (October 20 to November 21), ZTO ranked first in comprehensive assessment metrics across various platforms, excelling in reverse order volume and timely pickup rates [1] - The overall signing and delivery rate improved by 0.76% due to data-driven strategies and end-to-end collaboration in the delivery process [1] Group 2: Market Trends - ZTO Express has maintained its leading position in "Double 11" business volume for ten consecutive years, with a notable 19.5% year-on-year increase in rural express delivery volume [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that ZTO Express is expected to remain a preferred stock in the transportation sector over the next 3 to 6 months, benefiting from the current industry developments [1] - The management of ZTO Express highlighted that anti-involution policies are fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape, shifting the industry focus from volume-driven growth to quality and profitability [1]

Market Overview - The market consensus indicates a rebound from oversold conditions, with the Nasdaq rising 2.69% overnight, leading to a 0.69% increase in Hong Kong stocks at the close [1] US-China Relations - A surprising positive and constructive phone call occurred between US President Trump and Chinese President, discussing various topics including the Russia-Ukraine situation and agricultural products [2] - Trump has accepted an invitation to visit China in April next year, indicating a desire for improved relations ahead of the midterm elections [2] Lithium Industry - Longpan Technology announced a contract exceeding 450 billion yuan with subsidiaries, significantly surpassing the previous estimate of over 50 billion yuan, resulting in a nearly 23% surge in its stock [3] - Related companies such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium also saw stock increases of nearly 5% and over 3%, respectively [3] AI Sector - Google aims to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000-fold increase in the next 4-5 years to meet rising demand [3] - Meta Platforms is reportedly considering a multi-billion dollar acquisition of Google's TPU for data center development, contributing to Google's stock rise of 6.31% [3] Hardware Sector - Changfei Optical Fiber's components business has become a strong growth point, benefiting from North American AI data center construction, with a stock increase of nearly 13% [4] - Baidu's revenue from Kunlun chips is expected to grow significantly, with projections showing a sixfold increase from 2025 to 2026 [4] Healthcare Sector - There has been a significant increase in flu antiviral drug purchases, with sales of certain medications rising over 14 times compared to October [6] - Companies like Alibaba Health and Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical saw stock increases of over 4% and 7%, respectively [6] Electric Vehicle Market - European electric vehicle sales surged, with plug-in hybrid sales up 40% and pure electric vehicles nearly 33% [7] - BYD's sales more than doubled, while other companies like NIO and XPeng are expanding into new markets [7] Huawei Product Launch - Huawei launched the Mate 80 series and Mate X7, showcasing significant performance improvements over previous models, which is expected to attract market interest [8] Zhongtong Express - Zhongtong Express reported strong growth in its parcel business, with a revenue increase of 11.1% year-on-year for Q3 2025 [9][10] - The company is expanding its operations with a new smart operations center and has implemented advanced delivery technologies to enhance efficiency [10]

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express (02057) demonstrated strong performance during the 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival, being the only express company to achieve over 100 million daily transactions in collection, transfer, transportation, and delivery [1][2] - The company maintained its leading position in "Double 11" business volume for ten consecutive years, with a notable 19.5% year-on-year increase in rural express shipments [1] - Zhongtong ranked first in comprehensive assessment metrics across various platforms during the event, excelling in reverse order volume and timely pickup rates [1] Performance Metrics - During the "Double 11" period, Zhongtong's overall capacity increased by 22.5% due to the establishment of four new transfer centers, significantly improving package sorting efficiency by 2-6 hours [2] - The company operates an industry-leading fleet of over 10,000 trunk vehicles, supplemented by 3,000 unmanned delivery vehicles to enhance operational efficiency during peak seasons [2] - Zhongtong's 16 million smart express cabinet slots improved delivery efficiency for couriers and provided users with flexible pickup options [2] Service Enhancements - The "Express Butler" system improved work order processing efficiency by 42.16%, enhancing the speed of after-sales issue resolution and providing a better service experience for merchants [1] - Zhongtong's comprehensive capabilities, referred to as the "hexagonal warrior," enable the company to maintain a competitive edge in the market through continuous service upgrades, network optimization, and technological empowerment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in profitability and is expected to benefit from industry differentiation, leading to a positive outlook for future performance [4]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 11.1% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with an adjusted net profit increase of 5% [4]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in Q4 performance due to the positive effects of industry-wide price increases and a focus on reducing competition [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 38,419 million - 2024: 44,281 million - 2025E: 48,669 million - 2026E: 54,593 million - 2027E: 61,181 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 10% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2025E: 95.40 billion - 2026E: 101.49 billion - 2027E: 113.99 billion - The adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at -6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in business volume, with Q3 2025 achieving 95.73 billion items, a 9.8% year-on-year growth [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing a decline in growth rates, with varying performance among competitors [4]. - The company is expected to regain market share and profitability as the industry landscape evolves, supported by its strong asset base and scale advantages [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge through continuous investment and operational efficiency improvements [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a 5% growth in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [5][8] - The express delivery industry is experiencing stable growth, with the company maintaining its market share and achieving a volume of 9.6 billion parcels in Q3, a 9.8% increase year-on-year [6] - The company aims to balance service quality, business scale, and profitability, with projected net profits of 9.28 billion yuan, 10.09 billion yuan, and 10.91 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 8.7%, and 8.1% respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company's operating costs were 8.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, while gross profit was 2.96 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 11.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.75 [10][11] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 48.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.53% [10]

智通财经APP获悉，11月25日，中通快递-W(02057)发布2025"双11"战报。"双11"大促期间（10月20日至 11月21日），中通"质""量"并举，不仅是大促期间唯一"收、转、运、派"每日过亿的快递企业，在签收 和存放服务上也保持领先，展现出"六边形战士"的整体服务优势，各平台考核指标综合排名第一。 在运输环节，中通保持行业领先的运力优势——超10000辆干线车队规模领先行业，今年更有3000台无 人配送车助力，帮助网点和小哥更加轻松应对旺季。在末端，中通1600万个智能快递柜格口，不仅方便 用户灵活取件，也显著提高了快递员的派送效率。 "六边形战士"的全面能力，使中通能够在激烈的市场竞争中保持领先地位，中通也将通过持续的服务升 级、网络优化和技术赋能，为高质量发展转型奠定坚实基础。 在"双11"业务量方面，中通快递继续保持领先优势，连续十年"双11"业务量领跑。与此同时，中通在农 村市场的表现尤为亮眼，农村快递上行件量同比增长19.5%。 今年"双11"期间，中通在各平台考核指标综合排名第一，其中中通在逆向单量、上门及时率等细分服务 环节均实现领跑。在派送环节，中通通过数据驱动和末端协同，做好 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7] - The report highlights that the company's volume and profit both increased in Q3, driven by industry-wide efforts to reduce competition and improve pricing, suggesting continued improvement in Q4 [7] - The report notes a downward trend in the express delivery industry's growth rate, with ZTO Express expected to gain market share and improve profitability amid increasing industry differentiation [7] - The profit forecast for ZTO Express has been raised, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 now at 9.54 billion, 10.15 billion, and 11.40 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 6%, and 12% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 48.669 billion yuan - 2026E: 54.593 billion yuan - 2027E: 61.181 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion yuan - 2024: 10.150 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.540 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.149 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.399 billion yuan - The report indicates a net asset return rate of 14.52% for 2023, projected to decline to 13.33% in 2024, before gradually increasing to 15.27% by 2027 [6][7]

小摩引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜 的增长模式，转向更关注质量与盈利能力。小摩认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续 扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股，将公司H 股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，予"增持"评级。该行又将中通快递(ZTO.US)美股目标价由24美元 调升至25美元，评级同样为"增持"。 ...

小摩引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜 的增长模式，转向更关注质量与盈利能力。小摩认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续 扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中 的首选股，将公司H股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，予"增持"评级。该行又将中通快递(ZTO.US)美 股目标价由24美元调升至25美元，评级同样为"增持"。 ...

中通快递-W(02057)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.68%，报154.9港元，成交额2.78亿港元。 中通快递近期公布的第三季度业绩显示，三季度公司包裹量95.7亿件，同比增长9.8%，同时也保持了优 质的服务及客户满意度。调整后净利润增长5.0%至人民币25.1亿元，营收118.6亿元，同比增长11.1%， 经营活动产生的现金流为人民币32.1亿元。 消息面上，摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股，将公司H 股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，予"增持"评级。该行引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策 正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜的增长模式，转向更关注品质与盈利能力。摩根大 通认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 ...