Core Insights - The article discusses the critical importance of cold chain logistics for preserving the freshness of sensitive goods like fresh produce and pharmaceuticals, emphasizing the dual challenges of time and temperature control [2][3] - It highlights the competitive landscape for cold chain logistics, particularly focusing on Zhongtong's recent strategic moves to enhance its cold chain capabilities amid operational challenges and market competition [3][7] Group 1: Zhongtong's Cold Chain Strategy - Zhongtong has announced the launch of cold chain air express services and strategic partnerships to improve its logistics capabilities, marking a significant step in its cold chain market strategy [3][7] - The company faces significant challenges due to recent controversies involving false logistics information and operational inefficiencies, which have led to its removal from the Douyin platform [4][5][6] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Zhongtong's cold chain logistics operations include over 1,200 cold chain logistics points, 37 distribution centers, and more than 2,200 cold chain vehicles, but it still lags behind competitors like JD Logistics and SF Express in terms of infrastructure and service capabilities [9][10] - JD Logistics has established a comprehensive cold chain service platform with extensive warehouse and transportation networks, while SF Express benefits from a strong brand reputation and efficient logistics operations [10][12] Group 3: Market Outlook - The global cold chain logistics market is projected to grow from $248.38 billion in 2020 to $335.33 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.98%, driven primarily by the Asia-Pacific region [14]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtong Express's core express business revenue in Q3 accelerated growth by 12% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 2%, benefiting from industry anti-involution [1] - Adjusted net profit margin remains above market expectations, excluding one-time tax refunds [1] - The expectation of sustained industry anti-involution will benefit Zhongtong Express, reflected in increased market share and high-quality profit growth visibility [1] Financial Performance - Q3 core express business revenue growth of 12% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit margin exceeds market expectations [1] Market Outlook - Industry anti-involution is expected to continue for a certain period, with Zhongtong Express as a major beneficiary [1] - Increased market share and visibility of high-quality profit growth anticipated [1] Stock Recommendations - Target price for US stocks raised from $21 to $25 [1] - Hong Kong stock target price maintained at HKD 193 [1] - "Buy" rating maintained [1]

中金发表报告指，中通快递第三季单票利润按季转涨，非通用准则净利润25.06亿元，按年增5%、按季 增22%，好于该行预期，主因行业"反内卷"提价带动公司利润修复。该行分别调高中通快递今明两年盈 利预测6%及2%至95.47亿与105.01亿元，上调美股目标价9%至25美元，维持"跑赢行业"评级。 ...

小摩发布研报称，中通快递-W将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股。小摩引述中通快递管 理层最新评论指，反内卷政策正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜的增长模式，转向更 关注质量与盈利能力。小摩认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续扩大市场占有率，亦 展现出稳健的利润表现。 消息面上，11月25日，中通快递-W发布2025"双11"战报。今年"双11"期间(10月20日至11月21日)，中通 在各平台考核指标综合排名第一，其中中通在逆向单量、上门及时率等细分服务环节均实现领跑。在派 送环节，中通通过数据驱动和末端协同，做好上门服务与按需派送，揽签达成率整体提升0.76%。 在"双11"业务量方面，中通快递继续保持领先优势，连续十年"双11"业务量领跑。与此同时，中通在农 村市场的表现尤为亮眼，农村快递上行件量同比增长19.5%。 中通快递-W(02057)再涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.12%，报161.9港元，成交额6238.66万港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057.HK) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at 161.9 HKD with a transaction volume of 62.3866 million HKD [1] Group 1 - ZTO Express's stock price rose by 4.12% [1] - The current trading price is 161.9 HKD [1] - The total transaction volume reached 62.3866 million HKD [1]

来源：新浪港股 摩根大通发布研报称，中通快递-W（02057）将在未来3至6个月继续成为运输行业中的首选股，将公司 H股目标价由187港元上调至197港元，给予"增持"评级。该行又将中通快递（ZTO.US）美股目标价由 24美元调升至25美元，评级同样为"增持"。 小摩引述中通快递管理层最新评论指，反内卷政策正从根本上重塑竞争格局，推动整个行业从以量取胜 的增长模式，转向更关注质量与盈利能力。小摩认为，中通快递正明显受惠于当前行业发展，除了持续 扩大市场占有率，亦展现出稳健的利润表现。 11月25日，中通快递-W发布2025"双11"战报。今年"双11"期间（10月20日至11月21日），中通在各平台 考核指标综合排名第一，其中中通在逆向单量、上门及时率等细分服务环节均实现领跑。在派送环节， 中通通过数据驱动和末端协同，做好上门服务与按需派送，揽签达成率整体提升0.76%。在"双11"业务 量方面，中通快递继续保持领先优势，连续十年"双11"业务量领跑。与此同时，中通在农村市场的表现 尤为亮眼，农村快递上行件量同比增长19.5%。 中通快递-W（02057）盘中涨超4%，截至发稿，股价上涨3.41%，现报16 ...

Core Viewpoint - ZTO Express (02057) has shown strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, maintaining its leading position in the logistics industry, with a focus on quality and profitability rather than just volume growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - ZTO Express's stock price increased by 4.12%, reaching HKD 161.9, with a trading volume of HKD 62.39 million [1] - During the "Double 11" period (October 20 to November 21), ZTO ranked first in comprehensive assessment metrics across various platforms, excelling in reverse order volume and timely pickup rates [1] - The overall signing and delivery rate improved by 0.76% due to data-driven strategies and end-to-end collaboration in the delivery process [1] Group 2: Market Trends - ZTO Express has maintained its leading position in "Double 11" business volume for ten consecutive years, with a notable 19.5% year-on-year increase in rural express delivery volume [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that ZTO Express is expected to remain a preferred stock in the transportation sector over the next 3 to 6 months, benefiting from the current industry developments [1] - The management of ZTO Express highlighted that anti-involution policies are fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape, shifting the industry focus from volume-driven growth to quality and profitability [1]

Market Overview - The market consensus indicates a rebound from oversold conditions, with the Nasdaq rising 2.69% overnight, leading to a 0.69% increase in Hong Kong stocks at the close [1] US-China Relations - A surprising positive and constructive phone call occurred between US President Trump and Chinese President, discussing various topics including the Russia-Ukraine situation and agricultural products [2] - Trump has accepted an invitation to visit China in April next year, indicating a desire for improved relations ahead of the midterm elections [2] Lithium Industry - Longpan Technology announced a contract exceeding 450 billion yuan with subsidiaries, significantly surpassing the previous estimate of over 50 billion yuan, resulting in a nearly 23% surge in its stock [3] - Related companies such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium also saw stock increases of nearly 5% and over 3%, respectively [3] AI Sector - Google aims to double its AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000-fold increase in the next 4-5 years to meet rising demand [3] - Meta Platforms is reportedly considering a multi-billion dollar acquisition of Google's TPU for data center development, contributing to Google's stock rise of 6.31% [3] Hardware Sector - Changfei Optical Fiber's components business has become a strong growth point, benefiting from North American AI data center construction, with a stock increase of nearly 13% [4] - Baidu's revenue from Kunlun chips is expected to grow significantly, with projections showing a sixfold increase from 2025 to 2026 [4] Healthcare Sector - There has been a significant increase in flu antiviral drug purchases, with sales of certain medications rising over 14 times compared to October [6] - Companies like Alibaba Health and Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical saw stock increases of over 4% and 7%, respectively [6] Electric Vehicle Market - European electric vehicle sales surged, with plug-in hybrid sales up 40% and pure electric vehicles nearly 33% [7] - BYD's sales more than doubled, while other companies like NIO and XPeng are expanding into new markets [7] Huawei Product Launch - Huawei launched the Mate 80 series and Mate X7, showcasing significant performance improvements over previous models, which is expected to attract market interest [8] Zhongtong Express - Zhongtong Express reported strong growth in its parcel business, with a revenue increase of 11.1% year-on-year for Q3 2025 [9][10] - The company is expanding its operations with a new smart operations center and has implemented advanced delivery technologies to enhance efficiency [10]

Core Insights - Zhongtong Express (02057) demonstrated strong performance during the 2025 "Double 11" shopping festival, being the only express company to achieve over 100 million daily transactions in collection, transfer, transportation, and delivery [1][2] - The company maintained its leading position in "Double 11" business volume for ten consecutive years, with a notable 19.5% year-on-year increase in rural express shipments [1] - Zhongtong ranked first in comprehensive assessment metrics across various platforms during the event, excelling in reverse order volume and timely pickup rates [1] Performance Metrics - During the "Double 11" period, Zhongtong's overall capacity increased by 22.5% due to the establishment of four new transfer centers, significantly improving package sorting efficiency by 2-6 hours [2] - The company operates an industry-leading fleet of over 10,000 trunk vehicles, supplemented by 3,000 unmanned delivery vehicles to enhance operational efficiency during peak seasons [2] - Zhongtong's 16 million smart express cabinet slots improved delivery efficiency for couriers and provided users with flexible pickup options [2] Service Enhancements - The "Express Butler" system improved work order processing efficiency by 42.16%, enhancing the speed of after-sales issue resolution and providing a better service experience for merchants [1] - Zhongtong's comprehensive capabilities, referred to as the "hexagonal warrior," enable the company to maintain a competitive edge in the market through continuous service upgrades, network optimization, and technological empowerment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in profitability and is expected to benefit from industry differentiation, leading to a positive outlook for future performance [4]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 11.1% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with an adjusted net profit increase of 5% [4]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in Q4 performance due to the positive effects of industry-wide price increases and a focus on reducing competition [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 38,419 million - 2024: 44,281 million - 2025E: 48,669 million - 2026E: 54,593 million - 2027E: 61,181 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 10% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2025E: 95.40 billion - 2026E: 101.49 billion - 2027E: 113.99 billion - The adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at -6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in business volume, with Q3 2025 achieving 95.73 billion items, a 9.8% year-on-year growth [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing a decline in growth rates, with varying performance among competitors [4]. - The company is expected to regain market share and profitability as the industry landscape evolves, supported by its strong asset base and scale advantages [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge through continuous investment and operational efficiency improvements [4].