Core Insights - ZTO Express reported second-quarter 2025 earnings of 35 cents per share, a decline from the previous year, while total revenues increased to $1.65 billion [1][8] - The company revised its 2025 parcel volume guidance down to 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14-18%, from a prior estimate of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion, which indicated 20-24% growth [1][8] Financial Performance - Revenues from the core express delivery business rose by 11% year over year, driven by a 16.5% increase in parcel volume, despite a 4.7% decrease in parcel unit price [3] - Gross profit decreased by 18.7% compared to the same quarter last year, with the gross margin rate falling to 24.9% from 33.8% [4][8] - Total operating expenses increased to RMB469.3 million ($65.5 million) from RMB405.3 million in the prior year [4] Operational Highlights - ZTO Express handled over 9.8 billion parcels in the second quarter, achieving an adjusted net income of 2.1 billion [2] - Retail volume growth remained strong, exceeding 50% compared to the previous year, positively impacting overall margins [2] - Revenue from KA (Key Accounts) increased significantly by 149.7% due to a rise in e-commerce return parcels [3] Cash Position - At the end of the second quarter, ZTO Express had cash and cash equivalents of $1.85 billion, up from $1.71 billion at the end of the previous quarter [5]

中通快递首席财务官颜惠萍表示，将全年业务量指引下调至388亿至401亿件区间，对应年业务量增速为 14.0%至18.0%。 "今年上半年，价格竞争还是非常惨烈。我们认为，行业要想持续稳定健康发展，一定是从价格战走向 价值战，一定是用服务品质去赢得市场。"8月20日上午，中通快递董事长兼首席执行官赖梅松在电话会 议上表示。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，8 月 20 日，中通快递（HK02057，股价149.800港元，市值1196亿港 元）公布2025年二季度业绩。 财报显示，2025年二季度，中通快递完成包裹量98.5亿件，同比增长16.5%，市场份额环比提升0.6%； 季度散件业务量同比增长超过50%；营收为118.3亿元，同比增长10.3%；调整后净利润为20.5亿元，同 比减少26.8%。 当前，快递行业挑战与机遇并存。一方面，激烈的价格战影响了企业业绩；另一方面，AI（人工智 能）等新技术布局与落地，考验着快递企业管理层的战略眼光。 "只有把服务品质做好，把用户服务提升（上去），从而促进整个行业健康发展才是正道。长期来看， 我相信行业一定会朝着正确的方向健康发展。"赖梅松说。 经营性现金流为22亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has upgraded ZTO Express (02057) from "Outperform" to "Buy" and raised the target price from HKD 155 to HKD 180, citing lower package volume growth targets and improved industry pricing environment as key drivers for stock re-evaluation [1] Company Summary - ZTO Express's package volume growth target is considered low, which may positively influence its stock performance [1] - The improvement in the industry pricing environment is expected to further support the company's valuation [1] Industry Summary - The overall industry pricing environment is showing signs of improvement, which is beneficial for companies like ZTO Express [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Daiwa has upgraded ZTO Express (02057) from "Outperform" to "Buy" and raised the target price from HKD 155 to HKD 180 [1] - The firm believes that ZTO's lower package volume growth target, combined with an improved industry pricing environment, will drive a reassessment of the stock [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that ZTO Express (02057) experienced a year-on-year growth of 16.5% in express delivery volume in the second quarter, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The report suggests that there may be surprises in the average unit price over the next 6 to 12 months, which could act as a catalyst for the stock price [1] - The earnings forecast for ZTO Express for the years 2025 to 2027 has been slightly adjusted upwards by 1% to 2%, and the target price has been raised from HKD 174 to HKD 187, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

招银国际发布研报称，次季中通快递-W(02057)的快递量同比增长16.5%，招银国际仍认为未来6至12个 月平均单价或有惊喜，可能成为股价催化剂。该行将中通2025至2027年年盈利预测微调1%至2%，目标 价从174港元上调至187港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，民生证券发布研报称，快递板块当前仍处于低估区间，电商市场规模持续增长，叠 加下沉市场及电商逆向件等新需求落地，看好行业需求增长韧性，叠加物流无人车打开快递降本空间。 另外随着顺周期预期改善，中高端快递市场具备需求回暖机会价值。建议关注顺丰控股(06936)、中通 快递-W(02057)、圆通速递(600233.SH)、申通快递(002468.SZ)、极兔速递-W(01519)。 需求增长韧性强劲，价格竞争影响单票收入 民生证券主要观点如下： 快递行业保持高位运行，顺丰控股持续领跑 国家邮政局公布2025年7月快递行业运行情况，7月份快递业务收入与业务量分别完成1206.4亿元和164.0 亿件，分别同比增长8.9%和15.1%，2025年1-7月，快递业务收入累计完成8394.2亿元，同比增长9.9%， 快递业务量累计完成1120.5亿件，同比增长18.7%。 2025年7月，顺丰快递业务营收和件量增速领跑行业，快递业务收入186.57亿元，业务量13.77亿件。 2025年1-7月，顺丰市场份额同比+0.5pct，快递收入为1278.12亿元，业务量91.90亿件，单票收入13.91 元 ...

大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信在推行反内卷政策 后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢大市"上调至"买 入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，大和发布研报称，中通快递-W(02057)管理层对于快递持续涨价仍感到乐观，相信 在推行反内卷政策后，行业价格可逐步复苏。相信行业价格趋势改善可将推动重估，将其评级从"跑赢 大市"上调至"买入"，目标价也从155港元上调至180港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of ZTO Express-W to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4][7]. Core Insights - ZTO Express-W reported a revenue of 11.8 billion yuan for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, while the adjusted net profit was 2.1 billion yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year [1][4]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 22.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.21 yuan, a decrease of 0.12 yuan year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit per ticket for the first half of 2025 was 0.23 yuan, down 0.09 yuan year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 24.9%, a decline of 8.9 percentage points year-on-year, and for the first half of 2025, it was 24.8%, down 7.2 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The core revenue for Q2 2025 was 1.18 yuan per ticket, down 0.06 yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased incentives and a decrease in average ticket weight [2]. - The operating cost per ticket for Q2 2025 was 0.89 yuan, an increase of 0.07 yuan year-on-year, with other costs rising by 134.9% [2]. Market Share and Guidance - The package volume for Q2 2025 was 9.85 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5%, showing a 0.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has lowered its full-year package volume guidance to a range of 38.8 billion to 40.1 billion pieces, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 14.0% to 18.0% [3]. Capital Expenditure and Dividends - Capital expenditure for the first half of 2025 was 3.1 billion yuan, with expectations for 2025 to remain flat or slightly decrease [3]. - The interim dividend declared was 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [3]. Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 11.10, 12.07, and 13.28 yuan per share, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.74, 11.73, and 10.66 [4][5].